This week’s Lions Wire Mailbag features a look at where the organization stands four games into the 2019 regular season and contemplates any changes the team could make during the bye week.
Let’s jump right in.
With Kerryon Johnson, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson the Lions have 5 players with a 100-yard game. Is this versatility a key to success this season? — @OnePrideDE
Absolutely.
Much like the Lions defense is designed to play matchup football on a week-to-week basis, the offense approaches each game with a similar game plan: take advantage of each opponent’s weaknesses.
It’ll be frustrating for fantasy football players, but this offense wants to be unpredictable and so far through four weeks, they have found success playing matchup football.
Bevell’s offense has been impressive so far but it seems like red zone and short-yardage have been an issue. Do the numbers bear this out and what do you think the team can do differently to improve? — @nuzach
Let’s look at the numbers. In the red zone, the Lions have found the end zone on seven of their 13 trips (20th in the NFL). But when they get into first-and-goal situations, they have only converted three of their seven attempts (30th in NFL).
In short-yardage situations, Football Outsiders Power Success tracks third and fourth downs, where teams have less than 2 yards to go for the first down or touchdown, and they have the Lions finding success on 50 percent of those runs (25th in NFL).
I think in most of these situations the Lions have been too predictable or careless. In the first two weeks, everybody in the knew the power run was coming. Last week against the Chiefs, the Lions were less predictable in the red zone but fumbled twice.
Coming out of the bye, you’d like to see a blend of creativity in play calling and ball security.
Do you see the number of Kerryon Johnson’s snaps increasing, decreasing or staying about the same? How will the other running backs work into the rotation? — @lamos_mary
In the two weeks since the Lions moved on from C.J. Anderson, Johnson has carried the ball 20 and 26 times. I think that’s a tick more than the Lions would prefer, as limiting the hits Johnson takes is a priority.
That being said, I don’t expect the times the Lions want to run the ball in a game to decrease and that means more touches for Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic. Ty Johnson still appears to be the preferred reserve for traditional running back carries, while McKissic can be used in a variety of unique roles. Both deserve more opportunities.
Do you think that they keep rotating Graham Glasgow and Kenny Wiggins because they plan on trading one of them? — @DeKamJonathan
The NFL is a war of attrition and you win in December by having depth. Having Glasgow, Joe Dahl and Wiggins all in the fold will help them sustain the inevitable bumps and bruises that are sure to happen during the final 12 weeks of the season.
What in the world is the deal with Graham Glasgow? He appears to have been a solid player at a critical position but I haven’t heard of any attempts to resign him and they keep subbing him out of the lineup. I fear they’ll let him walk in free agency leaving another hole to fill. — @SRK345
Glasgow has actually been better than solid this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ third-best guard overall and the No. 1 run-blocking guard in the NFL.
In June, I was so confident Glasgow would be extended that I wrote a projection of his contract extension, but now it’s October and we are still waiting on news of a contract extension — even prompting our own Scott Warheit to wonder why it’s taking so long.
General manager Bob Quinn rarely extends players during the season so we may be waiting a few more months before we hear any updates, but with each passing day, I am left with the same concern as SRK345: Could they possibly move on from him this offseason? Let’s hope not.
With the bye week do you think Patricia focuses on fixing the run defense? — @DDReese2
On the surface, the Lions’ run defense appears to be one of the team’s most glaring weaknesses. The Lions currently allow 120.5 yards rushing a game (22nd in the league). And after last year’s top-five finish in the back half of the season, it’s safe to say they are underperforming against expectations.
One thing that should give you hope is while there have been struggles, they have also faced some solid offenses. The Cardinals are fifth in rushing DVOA, the Chargers are 16th (with the fifth-best offense overall), the Eagles are 11th (with fourth-best offense overall) and the Chiefs are 19th (with the No. 1 overall DVOA offense).
While the Lions have the 22nd-ranked defense against the run from a pure numbers standpoint, Football Outsiders adjusts for the opponent and has the Lions run defense ranked at 12th in DVOA.
So if you’re a person who puts more stock into advanced metrics over pure numbers, then the Lions are not in terrible shape and are bound to get better as they get healthier on the defensive line.
Position group you’re most confident will improve? — @jordanthegreek7
The defensive line.
Due to injury, Trey Flowers and Damon Harrison were late additions to camp and both struggled to acclimate at the beginning of the regular season. We are just now starting to see the impact Flowers can have on a game and I believe the best is still to come. Harrison is still adjusting, but his history indicates he is significantly better than he is playing right now.
The Lions should also return 2018 rookie phenom Da’Shawn Hand and All-Pro Mike Daniels from injury in the near future, which should add to the team’s overall improvement upfront.
Why isn’t Jahlani Tavai playing more with Jarrad Davis? — @Capelshow23
Two main reasons. First, coach Matt Patricia prefers to take it slow with rookies in the first half of the season. And second, Christian Jones has been playing well.
I expect Tavai to see his numbers increase as the week’s progress because he is such a perfect fit for this scheme and is too talented to keep off the field.
Keep in mind, last year’s second-round pick Kerryon Johnson didn’t see consistently high snaps until Week 7 (after the bye against the Miami Dolphins) of his rookie season, while third-round pick Tracy Walker waited until the last four games of the season before his snap counts elevated.
How far is Amani Oruwariye from game snaps? — @torQgameada
As I just mentioned with Tavai, the Lions aren’t going to rush Oruwariye — and quite frankly, there isn’t a need to.
Starters Darius Slay, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin have been playing very well, while reserve Mike Ford stepped up and looked great when pressed into game action last week. Add in Jamal Agnew and Dee Virgin being active on game day for their special teams contributions and the path to the gameday roster is a difficult one for the fifth-round rookie corner.
It will likely either take an injury, like last week, or a significant drop in production for Oruwariye to find the field anytime soon — and honestly, that’s not a bad thing.
Any players you think would be good fits for the lions in the draft (I know way too early)? — @jordanthegreek7
We are still a long way from knowing the Lions’ needs heading into the offseason, but just looking at the current starters on expiring contracts, they have potential holes at wide receiver, guard, defensive tackle and corner.
Here are my current top-three stylistic fits at each of these positions.
Wide receiver:
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (junior)
Henry Ruggs III, Alabama (junior)
Jalen Reagor, TCU (junior)
Interior offensive line (all three are currently centers):
Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma (redshirt sophomore)
Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (redshirt junior)
Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU (redshirt junior)
Defensive tackle:
Derrick Brown, Auburn
Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
Raekwon Davis, Alabama
Corner:
Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State (junior)
Trevon Diggs, Alabama
Kristian Fulton, LSU
