With Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings in late October, some investors may be wondering if now is the right time to jump in. As it turns out, history says yes.
The three-week stretch between mid-October and early November has quietly been one of the most consistent winning periods for Microsoft stock — and it aligns perfectly with its first-quarter earnings release.
Microsoft Has a Seasonal Edge Before Earnings — Here's What 25 Years of Data Show
According to data from Seasonax, Microsoft has posted gains in 19 of the past 25 years between Oct. 14 and Nov. 7, translating to a 76% win rate.
During that timeframe, the average return was +6.5%, with the median right in line.
Not only has the stock shown strength in this earnings window — it's done so with impressive consistency, even during volatile or weak years for the broader market.
Microsoft's strongest showing occurred between Oct. 16, 2000 and Nov. 7, 2000, with shares jumping 40% fueled by a post-dot-com bounce.
Double-digit gains during this three-week window have occurred in 8 of the past 25 years — nearly one-third of the time — with standout performances in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2015, and 2021.
The most impressive run occurred between 2013 and 2017, marked by five consecutive years of positive returns.
Losses during this window have generally been modest. Only six of the past 25 years saw negative returns — and most of them were barely in the red, with the exclusion of 2003’s 8.5% loss and 2008’s 10.8% decline.
| Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Profit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2000 | 15.40 | 07 Nov 2000 | 21.55 | +39.95% |
| 15 Oct 2001 | 17.75 | 07 Nov 2001 | 19.64 | +10.66% |
| 14 Oct 2002 | 15.07 | 07 Nov 2002 | 17.12 | +13.63% |
| 14 Oct 2003 | 17.59 | 07 Nov 2003 | 16.10 | -8.49% |
| 14 Oct 2004 | 17.20 | 08 Nov 2004 | 18.11 | +5.32% |
| 14 Oct 2005 | 17.17 | 07 Nov 2005 | 18.80 | +9.49% |
| 16 Oct 2006 | 20.07 | 07 Nov 2006 | 20.43 | +1.76% |
| 15 Oct 2007 | 21.49 | 07 Nov 2007 | 25.41 | +18.24% |
| 14 Oct 2008 | 17.50 | 07 Nov 2008 | 15.61 | -10.79% |
| 14 Oct 2009 | 19.33 | 09 Nov 2009 | 21.59 | +11.67% |
| 14 Oct 2010 | 19.15 | 08 Nov 2010 | 20.35 | +6.26% |
| 14 Oct 2011 | 21.22 | 07 Nov 2011 | 20.85 | -1.72% |
| 15 Oct 2012 | 23.59 | 07 Nov 2012 | 23.25 | -1.46% |
| 14 Oct 2013 | 28.39 | 07 Nov 2013 | 30.90 | +8.85% |
| 14 Oct 2014 | 37.07 | 07 Nov 2014 | 41.26 | +11.32% |
| 14 Oct 2015 | 40.63 | 09 Nov 2015 | 47.14 | +16.02% |
| 14 Oct 2016 | 51.35 | 07 Nov 2016 | 54.03 | +5.22% |
| 16 Oct 2017 | 71.11 | 07 Nov 2017 | 77.17 | +8.53% |
| 15 Oct 2018 | 100.31 | 07 Nov 2018 | 104.38 | +4.05% |
| 14 Oct 2019 | 132.30 | 07 Nov 2019 | 136.76 | +3.38% |
| 14 Oct 2020 | 211.77 | 09 Nov 2020 | 209.40 | -1.12% |
| 14 Oct 2021 | 292.95 | 08 Nov 2021 | 326.08 | +11.31% |
| 14 Oct 2022 | 223.01 | 07 Nov 2022 | 222.34 | -0.30% |
| 16 Oct 2023 | 327.70 | 07 Nov 2023 | 355.18 | +8.38% |
| 14 Oct 2024 | 416.02 | 07 Nov 2024 | 422.26 | +1.50% |
Why This Happens: Earnings And Psychology
There are a couple of likely reasons behind this seasonal pattern.
First, Microsoft tends to report earnings in late October, and investor optimism ahead of results often fuels a rally — especially as it sets the tone for the tech sector going into year-end.
Second, this period often follows weak September trading, which sets the stage for "buy-the-dip" behavior as investors reposition for the final quarter.
2025: A Strong Year So Far For MSFT. Can It Continue?
As of Wednesday, Microsoft is up 21% year to date, outpacing its 25-year average return of 9.1% over the same period (Jan. 1 to Oct. 14).
What's more, in years when Microsoft already had a strong YTD performance, it often extended those gains through early November:
- 2021: MSFT was up 40% by mid-October — and tacked on another 11.3% by Nov. 8.
- 2023: After rising 28% YTD through mid-Oct, shares climbed 8.4% in the same three-week window.
Even Weak Years Show a Bounce
Interestingly, Microsoft's seasonal strength isn't just a bull-market phenomenon. The stock has shown resilience even during tough years:
- 2002: Down 26.5% YTD by mid-October, then rallied +13.6%
- 2005: Off 6.9%, rebounded +9.5%
- 2009: Down 17%, then surged +11.7%
- 2022: The third-worst year ever, but Microsoft held steady in this window
Bottom Line
Microsoft's track record between mid-October and early November is one of the most consistent seasonal trends in a mega-cap stock.
Whether it's riding momentum from a strong year or bouncing back after weakness, history shows that Microsoft tends to deliver during this stretch.
With earnings around the corner and the stock already up 21% in 2025, investors betting on history may find themselves in good company.
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Photo: El editorial on Shutterstock.com
