Business leaders say singling out India without stopping flights from other high risk countries is a 'diplomatic disaster'. Anuja Nadkarni reports.
The suspension of flights from India is another setback for migrant businesses that have been in a year-long struggle to rebuild trade ties with their birth country.
Accounting firm Orb 360 director Jay Changlani was preparing to resume travel to the subcontinent this month after a 14 month hiatus.
But the two week suspension of flights from India has poured cold water on Changlani’s plans to get his business back on track. The lock-out is to give the New Zealand Government breathing space to investigate the recent spike in positive cases among arrivals.
Having additional administration and accounting workers in India enabled Changlani to service the clients of three accounting firms he had acquired in New Zealand over the past four years.
“Employing staff in India has helped the business grow as we can increase our efficiency and increase a day’s work from six hours to 11 hours,” Changlani said.
The Government’s travel suspension announcement was faced with backlash from the Indian community, as this was the first time New Zealand had stopped citizens and permanent residents from returning to the country.
Kiwi Indians felt singled out by the decision as the country was allowing arrivals from other high risk countries like Brazil and the United States. The announcement also raised concerns from the Human Rights Commission about a lack of transparency around the reasoning for the suspension.
Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins' spokesperson said there had been more than 10 cases a week from India over the past four weeks, while there had been 10 cases or more a week once from the US and three times from the UK over the entire course of the pandemic.
She said the proportion of returnees from India arriving with Covid-19 was currently higher than the peak for either the UK or the US when large numbers were arriving from those countries.
Economist Rodney Jones said the “explosion” of cases in India had been “disturbing” as the subcontinent recorded about 170,000 cases on Monday, the first day of the travel suspension.
Jones who has also been an informal adviser to the Government on the pandemic said the cases in India had been one of the worst points in the pandemic.
He said New Zealand had not seen this concentration of cases from any one country.
Jones said the government was not confident enough to know how India was handling the pandemic.
Epidemiologist Michael Baker said it was likely the suspension would be extended beyond the two week period that was announced by the Prime Minister last week.
“It's very unlikely the pandemic is going to get better in India over the next two weeks,” Baker said.
“I think the government's going to have few options. Given what's happening in India, it's going to be hard to find a justification to not extend it.”
Baker has been arguing to “turn down the tap” on arrivals from all countries since last October. “The trouble with MIQ is that it's inherently leaky.”
Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said the government was looking at ways to reduce the risk posed by travellers before boarding, including improving the pre-departure testing regime, during transit, and at MIQ facilities in New Zealand.
The Government was also engaging with a range of stakeholders throughout the Indian community in New Zealand, he said.
The suspension of the flights was raised at an “officials level” with the Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta communicating with her counterpart in New Delhi to explain the context to the government’s decision, Hipkins said.
As Immigration NZ did not require New Zealand citizens or permanent residents to disclose their reasons for travel, the government did not know whether arrivals had traveled for business or personal reasons.
A Ministry of Health spokeswoman said there was no concrete information to suggest that the new variant originating in India, known as B.1.617, was more severe, had a higher transmission rate or longer incubation period at this stage.
India NZ Business Council chair Sameer Handa said the move to single out India for the suspension was a “diplomatic disaster” for New Zealand.
“It’s an important step from a health perspective but to single out India rather than stopping flights from other high risk countries as well for example has not been welcomed by Indians,” Handa said.
Handa said an extension will make operations for New Zealand businesses worse and will have negative repercussions for trade.
According to Statistics New Zealand, trade between both countries was worth $2.6 billion in 2019.
And a report published by the Waitakere Indian Association and economist Shamubeel Eaqub last year found the Indian diaspora contributed $10b to the country's economy. This included a number of migrant businesses that relied on trade with India.
IT consultancy firm Duco Consultancy managing director Chandan Ohri said the impact of negative perceptions of New Zealand among Indians was being felt by his company.
Ohri employed about a dozen workers in India who have been in limbo since the start of the pandemic.
The recent suspension of travel has knocked the confidence out of his staff who have been waiting for their visas.
Ohri said he was fielding “unnecessary” questions from anxious workers stuck in India who the company hired more than a year ago, which he believes could have been avoided by better communication from the New Zealand government.
He said the pandemic had brought the company’s 50 percent year on year growth rate to a screeching halt.
“The impact is two fold, our clients desperately need expertise in new technology, digital transformation for automation and because we're not able to deliver the project it is continuing to impact our client’s efficiency and their margins.”
He said the company lost $5m in revenue last year.
“The other thing is we're not able to grow. As an emerging business we feel our entire growth has been curtailed for us with no talent coming into New Zealand. it has a multiplier effect on the economy too.
“Our growth has been restricted because we're just not able to pick up any new business and our client commitments are suffering because the talent is not there.”
Duco Consultancy was heavily reliant on skilled IT professionals from overseas who had niche expertise in the development of new technologies.
“Since the last couple of days we’ve received a lot of concerns from Indian staff about what this means for them. They are concerned the suspension may be extended.”
Hipkins did not say whether an extension was likely at this stage.
“The Government is receiving advice from officials on this issue and will communicate a decision in due course,” Hipkins said.
Changlani said extending the suspension would likely affect trade and foreign investment.
He said all these impacts could lead to a bigger problem down the line as people will be more hesitant about doing business in New Zealand.
If the suspension were to extend though, entrepreneurs will likely do what they do best, adapt.
Changlani said New Zealanders stuck either side of the border will likely exploit loopholes and use the Australian travel bubble to circumvent the suspension.
