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The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Pound hits seven-month low as UK political uncertainty hits markets - as it happened

A traditional dragon statue marking the boundary of the City of London.
A traditional dragon statue marking the boundary of the City of London. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Afternoon summary: Brexit worries haunt the markets

Time for a quick recap

Sterling has lost ground today as fresh signs of UK political instability rattled investors. The pound has hit a seven-month low against the euro and is close to an eight-week low against the US dollar.

Here’s today’s lows:

  • £1 = €1.1280, lowest since November 2016
  • £1 = $1.1265, close to the eight-week low set in Friday

The selloff came as rumours swirled through Westminster that next Monday’s Queen’s Speech might be postponed. This has highlighted that Theresa May’s position in Downing Street remains vulnerable (and potentially creates a very awkward diary clash with the monarch’s duties at Royal Ascot.)

Political insiders are also reporting that the cabinet is split, with some members pushing for a softer Brexit plan.

Business leaders have warned that confidence has been badly hit by the hung parliament delivered by last week’s general election, which has left May chasing some sort of deal with the Democratic Unionist Party, which won 10 seats in Northern Ireland.

The Institute for Directors said:

“It is hard to overstate what a dramatic impact the current political uncertainty is having on business leaders, and the consequences could – if not addressed immediately – be disastrous for the UK economy.

The needs of business and discussion of the economy were largely absent from the campaign, but this crash in confidence shows how urgently that must change in the new government.

Rating agencies have weighed in too. Moody’s warned that the hung parliament was ‘credit negative’ for the UK; a hint that Britain’s credit rating could be downgraded.

They said:

Election result heightens uncertainty over Brexit negotiations and increases fiscal risks, a credit negative”.

S&P’s chief economist predicted that UK growth would be hurt.

Harvard University added to the mix, with a study finding that most businesses want to remain in the single market.

The Resolution Foundation warned that UK firms are worryingly unprepared for migration curbs.

Meanwhile on Wall Street, US technology giants are suffering a second day of losses, with the Nasdaq down 1% in early trading. Is it the end of the tech boom?...

...not necessarily! Chris Beauchamp of IG says:

Attention is concentrated on the ongoing rout in US tech stocks. Having been such a one-way bet so far this year, this sudden turn to the downside will have caught out more than a few over-eager latecomers.

However, those rushing to proclaim the demise of one of the big rallies of not only the past year but the past eight years too need to be careful – there will be plenty of dip buyers out there who have been waiting for a pullback of this kind of size.

And in Europe, the markets have just closed for the day.

The FTSE 100 shed 15 points, or 0.25%, to 7511 - failing to get any benefit from the cheaper pound.

The the German DAX shed almost 1% and the French CAC lost 1.2%

That’s all for tonight. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

Updated

Dr Mike Ellington of the University of Liverpool has written an interesting article on how sterling will suffer from the political crisis in Westminster.

He’s analysed UK economic uncertainty (measured by recording how many articles on economic and political unrest appear in the media each day), and tracked it against the value of the pound.

UK economic uncertainty

He conclude that there is a ‘negative relationship’ between the two, with sterling suffering losses whenever

It is clear that the negative relationship between policy uncertainty and the euro to sterling exchange rate is intensifying. This implies that increases in economic policy uncertainty are met with depreciations in the sterling to euro exchange rate running up to June 9, 2017.

UK economic uncertainty

This indicates that currency markets do not feel the government has a strong negotiation position for Brexit (otherwise sterling wouldn’t be so volatile).

Ellington concludes that this means trouble ahead....

This, coupled with May’s lack of support in the general election, should put her leadership into question, particularly when it comes to entering divorce talks with the EU.

The very fact that the domestic political landscape of the UK is shrouded by yet another layer of uncertainty suggests that economic policy, the exchange rate, and indeed the wider economy, is in for a rough ride.

Here’s the full piece:

Why the hung parliament spells economic turbulence for the UK economy

UK business confidence slumps: Expert reaction

The Institute of Director’s warning that UK business confidence has plunged since the general election has caused quite a stir.

Here’s some of the best reaction:

Markus Kuger, senior economist at business services firm Dun & Bradstreet

“After the surprising election result, political and economic uncertainty in the UK has risen considerably. The election outcome looks set to further complicate the process of negotiating the UK’s departure from the EU, as the government only has a narrow majority in parliament – and even this looks vulnerable in the context of Conservative MPs’ widely differing views on post-Brexit UK-EU relations. Given the backdrop of an already slowing economy (the UK posted the lowest real GDP growth of all 28 EU economies in Q1 2017), it is not surprising that businesses are beginning to express a lack of confidence. We believe it’s highly unlikely that the first round of Brexit talks between the British government and the EU (scheduled for 19/20 June) will deliver more clarity or significant results. This means that companies will have to wait even longer to assess the impact of these negotiations on their business.

“Our analysis indicates that uncertainty will remain high in the next 18 months, regardless of what happens in the wake of the election, and we are maintaining our risk rating of DB2d and our ‘deteriorating’ risk outlook for the UK economy. We predict that, in the long run, the election result could make a ‘hard’ Brexit - which we believe would be harmful for the British economy - impossible.

Jenni Hibbert, Managing Partner for Financial Services Europe & Africa at executive headhunters Heidrick & Struggles

“Worries about the future are not just relegated to those in financial services: we recently conducted a wide-ranging survey with hospitality CEOs, the UK’s fourth largest employer accounting for 180,000 businesses in the UK, with less than one in ten confident about the future and almost half describing themselves as concerned.”

Former UK shadow chancellor Ed Balls has also weighed in on Brexit today by co-authoring a report which found that a bad deal would be a disaster for the UK.

A survey of small UK businesses by Harvard University found that “almost all” business leaders wanted to retain membership of the single market and customs union, to make it easier to keep trading with the EU.

Balls says:

“At the time of the referendum, many British companies thought that Brexit might lead to a reduced regulatory burden. But now they’re worried that if Britain leaves the single market and the customs union, the opposite will be true.”

Here’s the full story:

During the election campaign, both the Labour and Conservative leadership said Britain would leave the single market after Brexit - in order to impose migration controls.

However, Labour’s Brexit secretary, Sir Kier Starmer, has suggested today that the UK could stay inside the single market; a reminder that there are differing views on Brexit in both major parties...

Newsflash: Shares in tech companies are falling again at the start of trading on Wall Street.

The Nasdaq has shed 1%, losing 64 points to 6,143, at the start of trading. That adds to Friday’s 1.8% tumble,

Amazon, Alphabet/Google and Apple are all leading the fallers, as concerns grow that these tech giants have become overvalue.

Pound hits seven-month low

Ouch! The pound has just hit a new seven-month low against the euro, and is falling further against the dollar too.

Sterling dropped as low as €1.1280, down almost one euro cent today. That’s its lowest level since last November.

The pound vs the euro over the last year
The pound vs the euro over the last year Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Sterling is also continuing to lose ground against the US dollar; it’s now down 0.5% at $1.2671- close to the eight-week low hit after the general election.

The selloff comes as Theresa May government fails to show a great deal of strength and stability - with the Queen’s speech reportedly postponed.

FXTM Vice President of Market Research, Jameel Ahmad, argues that the pound will suffer fresh losses as Brexit talks begin next week. He isn’t convinced that a move towards a ‘softer Brexit’ will provide much support.

I personally still see downside risks for the Sterling and see the potential for the market to become encouraged towards selling in the likelihood that the UK is set to begin negotiations next week and looks very unprepared for such complex negotiations.

The whole reason for the UK election in the first place was so that Theresa May would have more powers to influence the Brexit process, but not only has this play backfired, the UK looks more unprepared than ever to go head-to-head with the EU as it currently stands. I personally remain bearish on the Sterling.

Carolyn Fairbairn, the director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, has also weighed in on the issue of EU migrants.

She warns that British firms can’t be expected to replace EU nationals with UK citizens, at a time when employment in Britain is already at record high levels.

Fairbairn also told the Resolution Foundation’s conference that politicians need to concentrate on the economy again..

Speaking of EU migration....

UK firms 'totally unprepared' for migration rules post-Brexit

Britain’s businesses are “totally unprepared” for the drop in migration after Brexit, according to a new report from the Resolution Foundation today.

The think tank polled more than 500 UK businesses who employ EU workers, and found that 17% expect no change to the current system of freedom of movement for EU/EEA nationals to the UK.

Another 30% believe this system will be maintained for anyone from the EU who arrives in Britain with a job offer.

These are “totally unrealistic expectations”, warns Resolution, because:

The Prime Minister in contrast has ruled out either option, stating that her government – rather than firms’ demand for workers – will control migrant numbers. The Conservative Manifesto recommitted the government to reducing net migration down to the tens of thousands.

The report was presented to a conference in London today, which also heard that the UK agriculture sector needs tens of thousands of season workers each year.

The National Farmers Union is urging the government to consider this issue during the Brexit talks:

Updated

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Another dollop of uncertainty has just landed on our plates; Downing Street are hinting that the Queen’s Speech might not take place next Monday after all.

Our political liveblogger Andrew Sparrow has just returned from the regular lobby briefing with Theresa May’s spokesman, and reports:

The spokesman said that the new leader of the Commons, Andrea Leadsom, would be making a statement about the date of the Queen’s speech in due course. The spokesman would not say anymore, but he would not confirm that it will go ahead as planned on Monday next week.

It may be that the government has decided to delay it until it has agreed its deal with the DUP.

A delay would be most unusual - and rather irksome for Queen Elizabeth II, who is expecting to spend most of next week at the Royal Ascot races.

Sterling has fallen against every other major currency today, according to Bloomberg, which explains:

The pound fell against all its Group-of-10 peers on the prospect of an unstable coalition government heading into Brexit talks with the European Union in a week’s time.

Betfair reckon there’s a one-in-three chance that Britain will hold a second general election this year.

Here are the latest odds:

Year of Next General Election

  • 2017 3.0 (2/1 or 33% chance)
  • 2018 4.0 (3/1 or 25% chance)
  • 2019 4.9 (4/1)
  • 2020 8.8 (8/1)
  • 2021 9.4 (17/2)
  • 2022 7.6 (13/2)

They’ve also provided some odds for Theresa May’s likely replacement:

Next Conservative Leader

  • Boris Johnson 3.4 (12/5)
  • David Davis 4.7 (7/2)
  • Amber Rudd 9.0 (8/1)
  • Ruth Davidson 10.0 (9/1)
  • Phillip Hammond 17.5 (16/1)
  • Michael Gove 23.0 (22/1)

Speculation that Theresa May might change her Brexit stance is propping up sterling, says Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.

“The rise of softer Brexit speculation is another reason why the pound has not declined more sharply following the UK general election result”.

More here:

Britain’s unstable political situation means the pound will remain volatile for some times, says investment bank JP Morgan.

It told its clients that:

The UK delivered another electoral surprise this week with the Conservative party losing its majority in Parliament. This means the Conservatives would be reliant on the Northern Irish DUP with its 10 seats to establish a thin parliamentary majority. This raises questions about PM May’s ability to deliver a hard Brexit given the desire in Northern Ireland for a frictionless border with the Republic of Ireland.

For sterling rates, this means markets are likely to be caught between the opposing forces of political instability associated with a Conservative minority government, and a potential softening of the Brexit stance.

Moody’s gloomy report on the UK’s election has knocked the pound, says Neil Wilson of ETX Capital:

“Sentiment around the pound took a bit of a dive in morning trading in London. After treading water around $1.274 for the last few days since the election, cable eased back below the $1.27 handle after Moody’s warned that the election result is ‘credit negative’ for the UK.

This seems to have woken traders from their slumber and the pound is on the defensive as we start the week. It wouldn’t take much bad news from the UK political scene to force cable to take another leg lower. Still there is plenty of bid to catch on the way down as the dips are being viewed as short-term buying opportunities.

Sentiment remains pretty bearish. As Moody’s points out there is a chance of a softer Brexit but we must also think there is a heightened risk of a cliff-edge exit from the EU.”

Sterling is also dropping against the euro, losing 0.6% to €1.1322.

On Friday it hit an eight-month low of €1.1285 before recovering a little.

Update: the pound had now dropped below $1.27, towards the eight-week low struck on Friday morning as the election results came in.

The pound is dipping back towards $1.27, down 0.2% today, as investors analyse these warnings from Moody’s and S&P and wait for developments in Westminster.

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says the drop in business confidence, and the slowdown in household spending, are worrying the City:

This decline in economic indicators may have been a long time coming, yet with a weakened political mandate and Brexit negotiations about to start, it is likely that we will see the UK continue to struggle.

The fallout from the UK election continues and will remain key to expectations for the pound.

Updated

Newsflash from the Bank of England: Andy Haldane, the BoE’s chief economist, has been reappointed to the Monetary Policy Committee.

That means Haldane will continue to vote on UK interest rates and the Bank’s stimulus programme until 2020.

It’s not a big surprise, but it is worth noting as Haldane is one of the most dovish members of the committee.

Speaking of Brexit delays.....

The formal Brexit talks are due to begin on 19 June, the same day as the Queen’s speech....

Moody's: Election result is credit negative

Moody's logo

Rating agency Moody’s has also issued a report on the UK election, and it’s not very cheery reading.

It is titled:

“Election result heightens uncertainty over Brexit negotiations and increases fiscal risks, a credit negative”.

And it warns that negotiating to leave the EU will now be a more complicated process.

Moody’s fears that those talks (which are due to start next week) may be delayed, or may not focus on “substantive issues” for a while as the Conservative Party tries to agree a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

Moody’s is also worried that Britain’s national debt will keep rising for longer, as the government wrestles with a slowing economy and the public backlash against austerity. That could be bad for Britain’s credit rating, which is currently Aa1 with Moody’s, one notch below AAA.

But.... Moody’s also suspects that Theresa May (or her successor) will now steer away from a hard Brexit, which would be good for Britain’s credit rating.

Here are the key points from the report

  • Inconclusive election outcome will complicate and probably delay Brexit negotiations, a credit negative. The negotiations with the EU were due to begin on 19 June, but we now expect a delay to the start of those negotiations or at least a period during which no substantive issues will be discussed. The time frame for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in March 2019 remains unchanged, reducing still further the time available to achieve the transition agreement needed to avoid a ‘hard’ Brexit.
  • We expect fiscal risks to increase because consolidation will have a lower priority, a credit negative. In our view, the budget deficit will increase this year and next, as the government reacts to the economic slowdown under way. The election outcome, with significant gains for the Labour Party which had campaigned for increased public spending, will likely be seen as a “vote against austerity”. The public debt ratio will rise further and for longer than we had expected, placing the UK among the few highly rated European sovereigns whose public debt is still rising.
  • However, the election outcome also means that the government may now consider “softer” Brexit options, which could be credit positive. While we still expect Brexit to happen and the “cliff” risk of sudden exit remains, the election result suggests an electoral shift away from the “hard” Brexit that the Prime Minister had ostensibly sought. Hence, a move towards “softer” versions of Brexit – potentially with continued access of some sort to the Single Market – might now be considered.

And here’s a chart showing why Moody’s is worried about Britain’s national debt:

UK fiscal profile

S&P: Election uncertainty will hurt growth

Britain’s economic growth is likely to be damaged by the current political instability, according to the European chief economist of ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

Jean-Michel Six told the AJEF association of financial journalists in Paris that:

“For the time being, the outlook remains negative.”

“In terms of the outlook for growth, it’s clear that things are not going in the right direction.

This latest bit of instability can only weaken the business environment and consumer confidence,”

Thanks to Reuters for the quotes....and this chart, showing how the UK economy has deteriorated recently:

The shock election result has fuelled speculation that Britain may aim for a less ‘hard’ Brexit than Theresa May had planned.

Kalum Pickering of Berenberg Bank explains:

On the continent, most observers have taken the UK election result as a rebuke of Theresa May’s hard Brexit rhetoric of the “no deal is better than a bad deal” kind.

For example, EU Commission Öttinger has expressed hope that the UK may now agree to stay in the Customs Union and the Common Market, possibly by joining EFTA. To remain in the Common Market and thus maintain preferential access to the EU27 market (except for some financial products where regulators will insist that some activities have to be carried out under the direct sway of EU regulators), the UK would have to accept the free movement of labour and continue to pay into the EU budget like EFTA members do.

Whether or not a Tory-led government could agree to that remains a very open question, though, to put it mildly.

Indeed! And in the last few minutes, Brexit secretary David Davis has played down the idea that the government could soften its stance - insisting that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market.

More in our Politics Live blog:

Buzzfeed’s Alberto Nardelli tweets:

Updated

.

Traders will be watching Wall Street nervously when it opens later today, to see if technology stocks keep falling.

Apple fell by 4% on Friday, while Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook all shed 3% - wiping almost $100bn off their market value.

The selloff comes after a long surge in tech stocks, so investors are wondering if the rally is over.

Kathleen Brooks of City Index says other assets could be spooked....

Friday’s sell off in some of the US’s biggest tech names was sharp and severe on Friday. But was this just a bit of profit taking after a note from Goldman Sachs questioned the $600bn increase in some tech firms’ market cap in the past year?

This is an important question that we need answered as tech stock weakness is having an impact on other growth assets today. The MSCI emerging markets index fell on Friday, yet the Aussie dollar, which is correlated with growth assets, was relatively stable on Monday.

The BBC has a good take on the IoD’s business confidence survey:

The uncertainty caused by the general election has led business confidence to sink “through the floor”, according to a lobby group.

A snap poll of 700 members of the Institute of Directors found a “dramatic drop” in confidence following the hung parliament.

Members saw no clear way to resolve the political impasse quickly, the IoD said.

However, it found there was “no desire” for another election this year....

More here:

Europe’s stock markets are a sea of red this morning, as investors digest the tumble in UK business confidence in the last couple of days.

European stock markets
European stock markets Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Shares are being pulled down by worries over UK politics, and the selloff in the tech sector.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says there isn’t much optimism in the City this morning.

Falling around half a percent the UK index found itself back below the 7500 mark, if only just, as the Institute of Directors warned that its members were feeling pretty damn pessimistic about the state of the UK economy in the next 12 months.

The pound, meanwhile, neither continued last week’s decline nor substantially recovered any of those election-losses, opening 0.1% higher against the dollar and flat against the euro.

The FTSE 250 index, which is more UK-focused than the FTSE 100, has dropped by 50 points (or 0.25%) in early trading to 19,719.

A five pounds banknote is seen in front of displayed stock graph in this picture illustration taken June 9, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The IoD’s gloomy warning on business confidence is helping to keep a lid on the pound this morning.

Sterling is hovering around $1.274, close to Friday night’s close. It tumbled by over two cents when the election exit polls came out on Thursday night.

The pound vs the US dollar
The pound vs the US dollar Photograph: Bloomberg

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, warns that the pound is vulnerable to political uncertainty, as prime minister May tries to cling onto power.

With Theresa May scrambling to repair the self-inflicted damage suffered as a result of the election, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty around her position and with only a week to go before Brexit talks with the EU begin, I feel there may be a few more twists to come yet.

May has not delivered the strong and stable government she wanted and instead looks weak and vulnerable. I find it hard to see how she recovers from this.

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets agrees, saying:

Sentiment remains dented by politics following the UK’s hung parliament and shift in the balance of UK political power.

European stock markets have opened in the red, with the FTSE 100 losing 27 points (or 0.4%).

Technology stocks are the biggest fallers, following a selloff on Wall Street on Friday night.

Updated

Manish Singh of CrossBridge Capital, an investment advisory firm, isn’t surprised that business confidence has fallen since the UK election.

He says many business leaders are now pondering the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister, after he smashed expectations and gained 32 seats.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Singh says:

If you are a business, you really need to start thinking ‘what is in the Labour manifesto?’....

It will have some businesses worrying about Mr Corbyn’s policies.

Labour’s manifesto included raising income tax on those earning over £80,00 per year, increasing corporation tax, and renationalising the water companies, as well as free childcare, ending the freeze on welfare benefits and abolishing tuition fees.

Singh says political instability can deter businesses from investing, especially when the Brexit talks are also hanging over them.

But he also agrees that younger voters are right too feel aggrieved, as yound people in Europe will be poorer than previous generations.

The agenda: UK business optimism plunges after hung parliament

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

European stock markets are set to fall this morning, as evidence piles up that Britain’s mounting political uncertainty is hurting the economy.

The Institute of Directors have issued a stark warning that business optimism has plunged after Theresa May lost her House of Commons majority last week.

A new survey of IoD members found that 57% are either quite pessimistic or very pessimistic about the UK economy over the next 12 months. Just a fifth described themselves as optimistic -- which gives a ‘net confidence’ score of minus 37.

That’s a serious deterioration compared to the previous month, when 34% were optimistic and 37% pessimistic.

The poll, conducted over the weekend, found that many business leaders are alarmed by the prospect of a hung parliament, just as the Brexit negotiations begin.

Stephen Martin, director general of the Institute of Directors, says British politicians need to urgently refocus on the state of the economy.

“It is hard to overstate what a dramatic impact the current political uncertainty is having on business leaders, and the consequences could – if not addressed immediately – be disastrous for the UK economy.

The needs of business and discussion of the economy were largely absent from the campaign, but this crash in confidence shows how urgently that must change in the new government.

This chart might focus a few minds in Westminster:

Business confidence

The IoD’s survey isn’t the only cause for concern this morning.

Visa have reported that household spending fell last month, for the first time in almost four years.

It highlights how consumers are being squeezed by rising inflation and political uncertainty, and cutting back on non-essential items.

As things stand this morning, May’s grip on Number 10 is looking precarious, with insiders saying she cannot lead the Conservative Party into another election.

Yesterday she was savaged as a “dead woman walking’ by former chancellor George Osborne (who seems to be enjoying his new career in journalism).

But the game isn’t over, yet. Later today May will appeal to her MPs for support, in an attempt to remain as prime minister.

Our political editor Heather Stewart explains:

The prime minister is expected to signal to her parliamentary colleagues that she will run her government in a more collegiate, less controlling way, after sacrificing her two closest advisers, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy.

With many backbenchers blaming May for the party’s poor performance at the polls, one senior Conservative said she would have to give a “barnstorming” performance at the meeting of the party’s 1922 committee of MPs to hold on to her job.

Spread-betting firm IG expect the main European markets to fall by up to 0.5% this morning.

While Britain is gripped by May’s crisis-of-her-own-making, France’s Emmanuel Macron is showing us how to lead a country.

The French president’s En Marche party is on track for a landslide win in parliamentary elections, giving him enough muscle to start pushing through economic reforms.

There’s very little in the economic calendar today, alas.

Updated

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