Following a week where concern over the future of Rachel Reeves’ job led to bond yields shooting up and Donald Trump signed his Big Beautiful Bill, this week brings with it the latest Halifax housing data - but not the end of the US president’s 90-day tariff pause. That’s due to the announcement of another delay, this time to 1 August, with only the UK, China and Vietnam having agreed deals so far.
Higher volatility can still be expected in stock markets, currency markets and potentially bond markets too as investors grapple with the possible outcomes and nations now continue try to seal trade agreements with the biggest economy on the planet.
The UK will also get GDP estimates later this week, while all eyes will be on Nvidia to see if the chipmaker continues its upward trajectory to become the world’s first $4tn public listed company, having hit new highs recently in its share price.
Follow The Independent’s live coverage of the latest stock market and business news here:
Business news live - Monday 7 July
- Trump's delays end date of 90-day pause on trade tariffs
- House prices decreased across April to June, data shows
- Ex-trader Redinel Korfuzi and sister sentenced to 11 years in prison for £1m insider trading
- Brits have £186 billion in cash earning less than 1.5% - despite still-high inflation
Financial firms expect job cuts to rise rapidly in months ahead, survey finds
13:03 , Karl MatchettFinancial firms are expecting job losses to accelerate in the coming months, with demand worries weighing on investment plans and optimism levels hitting a fresh low, a new survey shows.
Activity across the sector fell in the three months to June, at the fastest rate since December 2023, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).
It is the first time activity has decreased in more than a year.
Financial firms expect job cuts to rise rapidly in months ahead, survey finds
The markets don’t do sympathy – but they want Reeves to stay (for now)
12:00 , Karl MatchettThere were some in the aftermath of Rachel Reeves’s tears at Prime Minister’s Questions and the markets falling who supposed the latter were showing their kindness to the beleaguered British chancellor. This was speculators saying they regretted her possible demise and they wished Reeves to stay.
Certainly, the two appeared to go together – Reeves seemingly on the brink and the value of the pound and gilts plunging. None of us know what exactly prompted her anguish and what Sir Keir Starmer discussed with his aides after PMQs. They may have seen the reaction and if they had any plans to remove her decided to shelve them. In that sense, Reeves would have been saved by the City.
It would, though, be wrong to make that interpretation. Investors behaved the way they did, effectively marking down the British economy, not because they are fans of Reeves the person but because they cannot abide change. They abhor uncertainty and nothing would create greater uncertainty than the sudden resignation of the chancellor.
Comment from Chris Blackhurst:
The markets don’t do sympathy – but they want Reeves to stay (for now)
Footasylum profits nearly triple to £17m
11:40 , Karl MatchettShoe retailer Footasylum has revealed its annual sales and profits leapt higher as younger shoppers turn to top brands despite a “challenging” economic environment.
The Rochdale-based shoes and clothing chain, which has around 60 stores in the UK, reported a record financial performance in the year to the end of January.
Revenues totalled £350 million over the period, about 9% higher than the previous year.
Its pre-tax profit nearly tripled from £6 million last year to £17.2 million over the latest financial year.
More from Anna Wise, PA:
Footasylum hails ‘standout’ year as sales and profits leap higher
Brits holding £186 BILLION in accounts earning next to no interest
11:22 , Karl MatchettIf this is you...please stop costing yourself money!
Analysis by savings app Spring shows Brits are holding a combined £186 billion in non-ISA easy access accounts which are earning an interest rate of 1.5 per cent or below.
While this would be a dismal rate of return on your cash at most moments, it’s actually costing you right now with inflation running at 3.4 per cent.
Market rates and competition have both gone down, sure, but there’s still plenty of options out there to be earning well over 4 per cent.
Here’s our wrap of best places to earn above that figure on your cash.
And here’s why it’s important to earn higher than the rate of inflation.
All the time!
Shell shares fall 3 per cent on lower trading and production
10:40 , Karl MatchettShell has said it expects lower trading and production results for its integrated gas division as the firm battles amid a volatile wider market.
The group – which recently denied speculation it was considering making a bid for rival BP – trimmed the top end of its production guidance for the integrated natural gas division.
Shell – the world’s biggest LMG trader – also said trading results for its integrated gas division would be “significantly lower” than in the first three months of 2025, sending shares almost 3 per cent lower in morning trading on Monday.
FTSE 100 falls but European stock markets mixed
10:20 , Karl MatchettIn early trading today we’ve got signs that investors are in for a bit of a rollercoaster.
Overnight Asian stocks fell in Japan and Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite was just about flat, Australia was lower and the Asia Dow fell more than 1 per cent.
In Europe so far, the French CAC 40 is very slightly down after starting flat, the German DAX is up 0.4 per cent and the FTSE 100 on these shores is down 0.12 per cent.
Smaller firms are holding up though with the FTSE 250 up 0.17 per cent.
Stock markets to face volatility after more trade tariff turnarounds
09:59 , Karl MatchettMixed messages creates uncertainty, uncertainty creates irritated investors.
Stock markets are likely to be very up and down over the coming weeks, believe many analysts - even after Trump announced a delay to the delay of getting trade deals done by.
“Countries and regions are bracing themselves for trade letters from the US as the Trump administration moves to the next phase of its tariff regime,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.
“Trump might be treating it in the same way as a final notice letter – get your act together and agree to a deal or be put back on the higher tariff rates outlined in the Liberation Day announcement.
“We now have some clarity on how the system will work. Rather than a hard deadline of 9 July where all countries without a trade deal will revert to the higher rates announced on 2 April, the new tariff regime begins on 1 August. More countries are expected to confirm trade deals in the coming days, and extensions are possible beyond the 9 July hurdle for countries where negotiations are deemed to be going well.
“In theory, this clarity – albeit still slightly murky rather than crystal clear – should have had a positive reception from investors as the hard deadline has effectively been pushed back three weeks. However, markets were mixed across Asia and Europe on Monday, with futures prices implying a red day for Wall Street later on.”
£1m insider trading brother and sister sentenced to 11 years combined prison sentence
09:40 , Karl MatchettInsider trading pair Redinel and Oerta Kofruzi have been sentenced to six years and five years imprisonment respectively, following a guilty verdict of insider dealing and money launchering.
The pair were found guilty a couple of weeks back after Redinel used his position as an analyst to place trades on peoples’ accounts including his sister, Oerta.
The duo benefited to the tune of almost £1m.
Steve Smart, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight, said:
“The Korfuzis exploited their privileged position and the confidential inside information they had access to. They rigged the system to satisfy their greed.
"We’re committed to working with our law enforcement partners to fight financial crime and taking forceful action against individuals who undermine the integrity of our markets.”
Reeves' plan to increase pension contributions criticised
09:24 , Karl MatchettThis month’s Mansion House speech is expected to have a few key notes in it regarding peoples’ wealth - with a change to pension contributions likely to feature.
Minimum contributions for businesses to employee pensions is 3 per cent, but it has been reported that might rise - which would be another enormous burden on firms, says Rachael Chadwick-Harrison, managing director at Chadwick Accountants & Bookkeeping.
“Increasing employers’ pension contributions risks taking many struggling businesses to breaking point. For small and medium-sized enterprises in particular, these additional costs could prove unsustainable,” she said.
“The knock-on effect will almost certainly be felt by the average worker. There will be fewer job opportunities, reduced hours and even the possibility of redundancies as employers look for ways to manage rising expenses.
“This policy direction reflects a broader pattern of decisions that appear to disregard the realities faced by business owners. Instead of supporting growth and job creation, the government’s approach seems increasingly disconnected from the needs of those who drive the economy.”
Elon Musk branded 'ridiculous' and Tesla shares sink on new political party plans
09:00 , Karl MatchettDonald Trump called Elon Musk’s plans to form a new political party “ridiculous”, after the Tesla CEO suggested a new “America Party” will be his next focus.
Shareholders in the EV maker aren’t impressed, given he has only just left his DOGE role to return to what he said would be full-time attention on his business endeavours, sleeping at the office and so on.
US markets were closed on Friday for 4 July celebrations; ahead of the reopening later today, Tesla shares are down more than 6 per cent.
Is this the end of the five-day week? These companies think so
08:40 , Karl MatchettImagine that your weekend had started a day earlier... and did so every week. Sounds good, right?
That could be the new reality many companies and employees face in the future, after the four-day business week took another step towards implementation in the UK.
This year, 17 businesses of different types have been trialling the move, organised by the 4 Day Week Foundation. Almost 1,000 different employees were involved, all retaining their normal salary – and after the culmination of that study, all 17 companies have opted to keep going, following an earlier trial which saw 5,000 people adopt the scheme permanently.
But the initial results for those taking part appeared positive, with nearly two-thirds (62 per cent) of employees saying they noted a “reduction in how often they experienced burnout”.
Is this the end of the five-day week? These companies think so
House prices dropped in the last quarter, data shows
08:25 , Karl MatchettHalifax’s house price index is out this morning and the headline numbers are zero and -0.3.
To make that a little more helpful, we’re talking zero monthly chance in average prices from May into June.
And that means across the second quarter of the year, April to June, prices on average decreased by 0.3 per cent.
Annual growth has dipped a little, therefore, but it’s still at 2.5 per cent - with Northern Ireland seeing the strongest price growth in the UK.
Trump delays end date for tariff trade deals pause
07:59 , Karl MatchettThe big overnight news came from yet another flip-flop from President Trump, as the US leader rolled back the end date on 90-day pause on trade tariffs.
An announcement that deals would now continue to be negotiated until 1 August, more than a three-week extension, is perhaps testament to the fact only three agreements have been reached: UK, China and Vietnam.
Trump had earlier spoken of 90 deals in 90 days.
Taxpayers face £1bn hit from oil refinery closure
07:29 , Karl MatchettA report into the failed Lindsey oil refinery suggests UK taxpayers will take a £1bn hit if a buyer cannot be found.
The Times reported that HMRC are owed around £250m, while decommissioning costs could be from £700m to £3bn.
The demise of Prax has put 400 jobs at risk with the refinery placed into receivership last week.
Stock markets expected to face volatility this week
07:16 , Karl MatchettWith Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs ending later this week, it’s worth a look at how stock markets have fared of late.
It’s expected they will face heightened volatility as the deadline draws near, with uncertainty around China and the EU’s deals in particular.
Over the past month:
- FTSE 100: +0.3 per cent
- S&P 500: +5.2pc
- Nasdaq 100: +6.2pc
- German DAX: -1.91pc
- French CAC 40: -0.72pc
- Japan’s Nikkei 225: +5.47pc
Up to 23m people may expect car finance scandal compensation
07:08 , Karl MatchettConsumer law firm Slater and Gordon have conducted a survey and concluded that up to 23m may be expecting compensation due to the car finance scandal.
The Supreme Court is set for a final ruling on the issue, with the Financial Conduct Authority then potentially setting up a formal redress scheme for lenders to compensate consumers.
Elizabeth Comley, chief operating officer of Slater and Gordon, said: “The public have very high expectations on the car finance scandal. They rightly expect to be compensated for their losses. The FCA is trying put things right but there’s a risk that a redress scheme leaves many people disappointed and keen to challenge the process. That sort of backlash would be bad for everyone – the scandal would drag on for years, the courts would be inundated with challenges and the public would be denied the clear resolution they want.”
Business news live - Monday 7 July
06:58 , Karl MatchettGood morning and welcome to another week of business news and financial coverage here on The Independent.
Coming up today and across the rest of the week we’ll be seeing how markets, companies and trade bodies react to the approaching end of Trump’s 90-day tariff pause.
We’ll also have the latest domestic news with GDP estimates, house price data and more.
