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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Business
Ben Chapman

Business news – live: No-deal Brexit fears as food firms call for relaxed rules to cope with shortages

Food firms are urging the government to waive parts of competition law to allow them to work together to minimise disruption to supplies in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Meanwhile, the pound remains close to the 30-month low of $1.21 reached last week but is up slightly against the dollar and euro, despite news on Brexit appearing to worsen this morning.

Senior Tory MPs have suggested that the Queen may have to step in to use prerogative powers to remove Boris Johnson as prime minister if he refused to step down after a potential no-confidence vote.

Mr Johnson, whose government has a majority of just one MP, could face a no-confidence vote if he attempts to push through no-deal as promised on 31 October.

Please allow the liveblog below a moment to load:

Good morning and welcome to The Independent's live coverage of business and economics events around the world. 
 
Food suppliers have warned that the UK would need 30 large empty warehouses to store even a week's extra food supply and there is currently no spare capacity in the country to deal with a chaotic Brexit in less than three months.
 
“In the event of no-deal disruption, if the Government wants the food supply chain to work together to tackle likely shortages - to decide where to prioritise shipments - they will have to provide cast-iron written reassurances that competition law will not be strictly applied to those discussions,” FDF's chief operating officer Tim Rycroft told the BBC.
 
In the markets, Asian stocks were down on Wednesday while European bourses gained in morning trading.
 
Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, has praised Donald Trump and his deputy Mike Pence for their "warmth and enthusiasm for the UK-US relationship".
 
Raab says he was "delighted" to meet the pair on his three-day trip to the US in hope of paving the way for a post-Brexit trade deal.

"The UK looks forward to working with our American friends to reach a free trade deal that is good for both countries, and co-operating on the common security challenges we face."

 

E.On is the latest “Big Six” energy supplier to blame the government’s price cap for plummeting profits.

The cap, which will be reduced this winter, is supposed to stop firms ripping off loyal customers.

The German utility’s earnings from UK retail customers crashed 78 per cent in the latest quarter.

Customer numbers fell by around 200,000 to 6.4 million in the three months to March.

Bad news for E.On today but good news for about 15 million households who will see their energy bills fall this winter.
 
Annual energy bills will go down by £75 on average for 11 million households on standard tariffs and by £25 for customers who pay for their gas and electricity upfront. 

Ofgem, the energy regulator for England, Wales and Scotland, is lowering the price caps for the October to March period due to lower wholesale energy prices.

Full story here from Olesya Dmitracova:

Energy bills to fall for 15 million households this winter as Ofgem lowers price caps

A handy explanation on how the energy price cap works and how it might affect you, here from Ofgem:
 
Executives at Hargreaves Lansdown will give up their bonuses after the Woodford fund fiasco, Reuters is reporting.
 
According to the nes agency's source, Hargreaves' chief executive Chris Hill, Chief financial officer Philip Johnson, chief investment officer Lee Gardhouse and research director Mark Dampier, will take no bonus for 2019.
 
Hargreaves plugged Woodford's fund through its best buy list and received fees for referring customers.
 
Hundreds of thousands of Hargreaves Lansdown customers who ploughed their savings into Woodford's flagship fund have had their money frozen since June and it will likely stay there until at least December as the once highly regarded stock picker tries to sort out the mess he is in.
 
Woodford invested in riskier unlisted stocks which he couldn't get rid of fast enough when a long run of poor performance prompted people to demands their cash back.

House prices have fallen for the second successive month, Halifax says.

The average UK house price was down 2 per cent in July to £236,120 following a 0.4 per cent monthly decline in June.

However, the lender said prices were still up 4.1 per cent in the year to July.

Brexit uncertainty will weigh on the UK housing market over the next few months according to analysts at the EY ITEM Club.
 
"Consumers may well be particularly cautious about committing to buying a house, especially as house prices are relatively expensive relative to incomes," says Howard Archer.
 
House prices are still far higher compared to earnings than the average over the last 35 years.
 
"According to the Halifax, the house price to earnings ratio was still as high as 5.59 in July after spiking to 5.72 in February (the highest level since November 2017) from 5.39 in January; this is well above the long-term (1983-2019) average of 4.29."
 
And it is questionable whether recent growth in jobs numbers and earnings can be sustained "months as companies tailor their behaviour to a lacklustre domestic economy, prolonged Brexit uncertainties and a challenging global environment".
 
Therefore Archer forecats that house prices will rise by no more than 1.5 per cent in 2019.
 
 
Tesla is in a spot of bother in the US.
 
Bloomberg reports that Elon Musk's firm has been scrutinised over safety claims on its Model 3; the car intended to take electric vehicles truly into the mainstream.
 
 US National Highway Traffic Administration reportedly sent a cease and desist letter last year, taking issue with Tesla's claim that the Model 3 had achieved the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle the agency ever tested.
So, what exactly is Britain's food industry saying it needs the government to do to prevent food shortages after Brexit?
 
It's trade body wants firms to be allowed co-ordinate and direct supplies with each other if Britain crashes out of the EU on 31 October.
 
They cant do that under current rules which prevent them colluding. Those measures are designed to ensure adequate competition and result in the best outcome for consumers.

The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said: “We asked for these reassurances at the end of last year, but we're still waiting.”
 
The industry says that an October Brexit would be disastrous for food supplies because warehouses are already full in the run-up to Christmas. 
 
One retailer told the BBC that 31 October “is about the worst day you can pick”, as warehouse capacity is at 105 per cent in November, versus 75 per cent - 80 per cent in March.
More on disruption to food supplies after a no-deal Brexit from Tim Rycroft, chief operating of the Food and Drink Federation:
 
“Competition law is important, but in the event of no-deal disruption, if the government wants the food supply chain to work together to tackle likely shortages – to decide where to prioritise shipments – they will have to provide cast-iron written reassurances that competition law will not be strictly applied to those discussions. 
 
"Without such assurances, any such collaboration would risk incurring large fines from the CMA.  We asked for these reassurances at the end of last year and, despite support from Defra, we’re still waiting. Hopefully, now that Michael Gove is in charge of all no-deal planning, we can make progress.”
 
Over to you Mr Gove...
 
 
The government isn't being entirely up-front about the potentially dire consequences of no-deal Brexit for fresh food and drink supplies, according to a leading academic on the topic.
 
Tim Lang, professor of food policy at City University, warned earlier this week that the UK’s food supply faces levels of disruption “unprecedented” in peacetime.
 
What does that mean? 
 
  • The government estimates that half of lorries entering the country will be unable to cross the border smoothly
  • The flow of trucks could drop by a third within a day of a no-deal Brexit
  • Food prices predicted to rise by more than 10 per cent as costs rise and supplies fall.
Professor Lang warns that Britons, particularly those on lower incomes, already under-consume fresh fruit and vegetables, and food banks are not fully prepared for shortages, which could have a negative impact on diets and public health.
 
Full story here: 
 
Thousands of holidaymakers have had their flights cancelled due to more technology failures at British Airways.
 
Simon Calder has counted 86 cancellations to and from Heathrow so far today, including one round-trip to New York and dozens of flights to Mediterranean resorts. A further 10 have been cancelled at Gatwick.
 
The full report, including details on which flights have been grounded and what you can do if you're affected, here:
 
Worrying figures out today suggest that five million pension savers could be susceptible to the common tactics used by scammers to steal retirement savings.
 
Presented with six common scam scenarios, two-fifths of 45 to 65-year-olds said they would act in one or more ways which experts said could leave them exposed to fraud.
 
The data comes from a poll by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Pensions Regulator.
 
People should be wary of warning signs such as: pension cold calls, free pension reviews, claims of guaranteed high returns, exotic investments, "time-limited offers", and promises of early access to cash.
Back to potential food shortages after Brexit.
 
What can consumers expect? Unfortunately, even the food industry, which has tested a range of options to mitigate the effect of massive disruption at Dover, doesn't really know.
 
Food and Drink Federation boss Tim Rycroft tells the BBC: 
 
"There will be selective shortages and they will to some extent be random because it depends on which trucks get through and which don't. We think there will be some serious disruption and it will go on for weeks or months after our exit."
The government is unlikely to grant the food industry's wish for relaxed rules to alleviate food supply problems, says Mark Jones, partner at law firm Gordons. Big supermarkets probably won't be on board either.

Jones says: “The ‘big four’ control almost 70 per cent of the market and if any of them have a supply chain advantage post-Brexit, it offers them an opportunity to gain market share," says Jones.
 
"I cannot see them wanting to help their competitors. They will want to help their own customers. 
 
“As to suppliers, if they can sell the stock they have, they will, and they may well be able to make a better profit if supply is tight.
 
"If they cannot sell or use their raw materials, there is nothing stopping them picking up the phone to their competitors and selling raw materials now.
 
"Relaxing rules on anti-competitive behaviour is, in my view, unlikely to help shortages and I cannot see the Government going for it.”
 
The pound is a quarter of a per cent lower against the dollar so far today at $1.2137, not far off the 31-month low of $1.2080 it hit last week.
 
Against the euro, sterling is down 0.1 of a cent, leaving it slightly above the 23-month low reached yesterday.
 
With little to look out for on the economic calendar, Connor Cambell, financial analyst at Spreadex, predicts markets will remain "incredibly susceptible to the minutiae of the trade war" and comments from Donald Trump.

Twitter has revealed it may have used some people's personal data to target them with advertising without their permission because of issues within the platform's settings, the Press Association reports.

The social media giant said it had recently discovered issues in its website where settings choices may not have worked "as intended", resulting in some gathered data being used to personalise advertising.

Twitter said it fixed the issues on 5 August.

In a blog post discussing the problems, Twitter detailed how, in one case, data may have been shared with advertisers despite not receiving user permission to do so.

Donald Trump's trade war with China has pushed oil prices to a new seven-month low as the outlook for the global economy looks increasingly bleak.
 
Brent crude is down 0.6 per cent to $58.31.
 
The US president attacked Beijing this week for allegedly manipulating its currency to make Chinese exports more competitive.
 
 
The UK government is yet to respond to a request by the food industry to waive parts of competition law so that companies can cooperate after a no-deal Brexit to mitigate food shortages.
 
Full story from business and economics editor Olesya Dmitracova here:
 
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