Starting a week where the UK will get its latest official inflation data, the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has suggested that interest rates will be cut once more next month, saying the “downward path” remains on course as businesses tighten up the jobs market following the rise in National Insurance Contributions.
In the money markets, shares are expected to open lower on Monday for FTSE 100 firms, while bitcoin continues its record surge to hit new highs well above $120,000. Silver, gold and Brent Crude oil have also all been on the rise, but the pound has continued to drop against the dollar.
Additionally, we’ll be watching out for any tariff-related retaliation as the EU steps up its offensive against the US with a $24bn tariff list ready to go into effect if the two cannot reach a trade deal.
Follow The Independent’s live coverage of the latest stock market and business news here:
Business news live - Monday 14 July
- Bitcoin hits new record above $122,000 after latest surge
- Bank of England governor reveals key for August interest rate cuts
- US lands 30% tariff on EU - European bloc could respond with £18bn retaliation
- Rachel Reeves commits to fiscal rules ahead of Mansion House speech
Business news live - Monday 14 July
16:32 , Karl MatchettThat’s it for us today - back tomorrow at 7am as usual.
We will leave you with reaction to today’s stock market events with the FTSE 100 coming out strongly:
“Today’s negative stock market reaction across the main indices in Europe apart from the UK suggests investors don’t like the potential for 30% tariffs on goods coming from the EU into the US,” says AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth.
“That threat turning into reality could result in an even bigger pullback in European equities. It would sour what’s been a fantastic run this year so far.
“Europe enjoyed a monster start to 2025 thanks to investors looking for cheaper valuations compared to the US and the prospect of greater spending by the German government on areas such as defence and construction. High tariffs threaten to spoil this party and could lead to a bout of profit taking by investors.
“The EU’s decision to delay retaliatory trade tariffs suggests it would prefer to come to a mutual agreement with the US, rather than being dictated what future tariffs will be. Donald Trump might come across as aggressive, yet he has also shown willingness to hold rational conversations and the EU looks as if it wants to stay in his good books.
“The EU is in a difficult situation – on one hand it doesn’t want to be pushed around; on the other it knows that fighting back aggressively could cause considerable pain.
“A lot of investors will have been hiding in European stocks this year, thinking it was a relatively safe haven compared to uncertainty around the US. Unfortunately, they’ve now been given a short, sharp shock.
“The UK has come out triumphant.”
Business news live - Monday 14 July
07:46 , Karl MatchettGood morning and welcome to another week of action on The Independent’s rolling live business blog.
There’s lots coming this week, from stock market reaction to UK inflation data, but we start it all in the money markets where the pound is dropping - but bitcoin is heading up.
Bitcoin posts new record high above $122,000
07:57 , Karl MatchettBitcoin has been on a tear of late - it’s up 30 per cent this year, 15 per cent this month, almost ten per cent in the last week... and up once again overnight, setting a new all-time high in the process.
Having hovered around $118,000 most of the weekend, the latest surge has taken it to a high point of around $122,450.
It seems to be settling so far just above the $122,000 mark.
From a year ago today it is up 100.9 per cent - almost exactly doubling in that period.
Bank of England hint at new interest rates cut
08:16 , Karl MatchettWith interest rates at 4.25 per cent, there have been calls for the Bank of England to lower the base rate more quickly from some quarters.
Andrew Bailey, the BoE governor, says that other people have asked why they are coming down at all however, given inflation remains stuck well above the target rate at 3.4 per cent.
It’s a constant battle, but the hint has been left this time that they could come down a notch again next month as businesses tighten expenses via the jobs market.
Bailey said: “I really do believe the path is downward but we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’. I think we’re getting more consistently the story that [businesses], if you take the national insurance change, are adjusting via the labour market. I don’t think we’re getting to a tipping point in the sense that it’s becoming a sort of flood.”
US impose 30% tariff on EU and Mexico from 1 August
08:41 , Karl MatchettDonald Trump announced 30 per cent tariffs on EU products over the weekend, as well as hitting Mexico with the same number.
“We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers,” the US president wrote on social media.
"Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal."
EU ponder £18bn tariff retaliation to US
08:53 , Karl MatchettOn the back of that tariff from the US, the EU look ready to respond in kind.
Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani said to Il Messaggero: “Tariffs hurt every one, starting with the United States.
“If stock markets fall that puts at risk the pensions and the savings of the Americans.”
He also said there was a list of €21bn (£18bn) worth of US goods ready to be tariffed.
EU will delay any retaliation until US tariffs come into play
09:00 , Karl MatchettThe EU will delay any retaliation until US tariffs come into effect, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has said.
“The United States has sent us a letter with measures that would come into effect unless there is a negotiated solution, so we will therefore also extend the suspension of our countermeasures until early August,” she explained,
“At the same time, we will continue to prepare for the countermeasures so we're fully prepared.”
EU should 'prepare for war' with US, says Danish foreign minister
09:15 , Karl MatchettDenmark’s foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has said the EU must “prepare for war” with the US over trade deals.
“We shouldn’t impose countermeasures at this stage, but we should prepare to be ready to use all the tools in the toolbox,” he said.
“So we want a deal, but there’s an old saying: ‘If you want peace, you have to prepare for war.’”
EU trade commissioner has said Maros Sefcovic added: “The feeling on our side was that we are very close to an agreement.”
European stocks fall on 30% tariff - but FTSE 100 rises
09:38 , Karl MatchettStocks and indices in European countries are falling on Monday, following that earlier news of a 30 per cent tariff to be imposed by the US.
Germany’s DAX is down 0.8 per cent, France’s CAC 40 is down 0.65 per cent and the Euro is down almost 0.1 per cent against the US dollar.
But the FTSE 100 is heading in the opposite direction - up 0.2 per cent and with the AIM slightly higher than that.
The UK already has a separate deal with the US in place with some exemptions and specific rates in place beyond a base 10 per cent tariff.
British companies have a planning advantage over their European counterparts for the rest of summer, says AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth.
Tariff speculation, announcements and step-backs brought a lot of volatility to markets and uncertainty to the actual businesses within them across April and May.
Now that’s expected to be the case once more for companies operating in the export sphere between EU and US.
“The week begins with tariffs once again dominating the agenda for financial markets as US president Donald Trump suggests imports from Mexico and the European Union will be hit by levies of 30% from the beginning of August,” he said.
“That has put indices in mainland Europe under significant pressure, although the FTSE 100 stood out for its more resilient performance as the UK index moved 0.3% higher. With the UK having already reached an agreement on a 10% tariff for trade with the US, with exemptions for certain industries, the country is now seen to have an advantage in terms of trade relations.
“Unlike their counterparts across the Channel, British companies should be able to operate with greater certainty around trade, and exports may be diverted through the UK. This might act as a push for foreign companies to invest in manufacturing and logistics facilities in the UK.
“The last few months have taught us that a lot can change on a daily basis, let alone over several weeks, so investors will be watching closely to see where we land by 1 August.”
What’s hiding in your pension? How to find out where your money is invested
10:48 , Karl MatchettIf you have a workplace pension, your money is most likely in a default fund: a ready-made mix of investments designed for the average saver.
These funds aim for long-term growth by spreading risk across global markets, typically including equities (like shares in companies), bonds, property, and cash. On paper, it’s a sensible, low-effort option.
A recent government report reveals 90 per cent of employees stick with their default fund.
That’s not necessarily because it’s the right fit, but because switching feels complex or isn’t front-of-mind.
What’s hiding in your pension? How to find out where your money is and take control
Pub boss calls on government to overhaul 'unfair' business rates
11:50 , Karl MatchettThe boss of pub giant Greene King has said the Government needs to overhaul business rates for the sector amid rising closures across the UK.
Nick Mackenzie, boss of the 1,500-strong pub firm, said reduced property tax payments were needed to drive investment and new jobs after swallowing recent cost hikes.
“Pubs are going to be around for the long term, but we need to address the unfairness in the system to allow them to flourish,” he said.
“It isn’t fair that the sector has 0.4% of the rateable property but pay 2.1% of the bills.
“The sector is a massive employer and incredibly important for local communities, so we just feel it is important to underline how beneficial it is to tax pubs fairly.”
Thousands of young people exploited to launder money, claims report
12:15 , Karl MatchettThousands of young people are being exploited by criminals to launder money, The Children’s Society is warning.
Figures obtained by the charity from UK fraud prevention service Cifas indicate that 6,434 under-21s were identified last year where there were grounds to believe that frauds or financial crimes had been attempted through them.
The charity said its own research indicates some children aged 15 to 17 have experienced severe violence as a direct result of financial exploitation.
Victims are manipulated through coercive tactics such as threats against their families, financially motivated sexual extortion or “sextortion” and fears of criminal prosecution, the charity said.
It warned that exploitation often starts with seemingly minor requests such as sharing bank details or responding to “quick cash” job adverts.
Full details:
Thousands of young people exploited to launder money – report
Some comment now around the US-EU trade battle - Matthew Allen, macroeconomic expert at the University of Salford, says it could mean a transatlantic trade war.
“Donald Trump's proposed 30% tariff on EU imports is likely to send shockwaves through global trade, with significant ripple effects for UK consumers and businesses. While the UK is no longer part of the EU, it remains closely tied to EU supply chains. Many British firms import components and goods from the EU that are later exported to the US, meaning UK businesses could be indirectly hit by this tariff hike.
“For UK exporters who operate as part of EU-based manufacturing or distribution hubs, this move could drive up costs, cause delivery delays, and disrupt established trade flows. Sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals where cross-border production is standard may be particularly exposed.
“UK consumers could also see prices rise if EU goods become more expensive or scarce in the US, prompting EU producers to redirect exports to other markets, including the UK. This could drive up competition and prices at home. Meanwhile, financial markets may respond with volatility, and businesses may be forced to reconsider investment or hiring decisions amid growing uncertainty.
“Ultimately, this tariff escalation risks reigniting a transatlantic trade war, creating further instability at a time when UK businesses are already grappling with inflation, interest rate pressures, increased employer NICs and post-Brexit realignments.”
BrewDog co-founder plans cannabis market dominance in new venture
13:15 , Karl MatchettOne of the founders of BrewDog is targeting domestic dominance with a new business, planning to invest £20m into his new medical cannabis company.
Martin Dickie, who founded the alcohol and bars firm with James Watt nearly 20 years ago, now runs Waterside Pharmaceuticals.
A licence was granted by the Home Office last year to cultivate medical cannabis, with the firm describing their set-up as a tech-led vertical farm, with controlled environments and sustainable operations.
BrewDog co-founder plans cannabis market dominance in new venture
Employee-owned Post Office model ‘unlikely to be considered until 2030’
14:14 , Karl MatchettTurning the Post Office into an employee-owned organisation could not be considered until 2030, the Government has revealed, as it could also scrap the 11,500-branch requirement as part of a major review into its future.
The current level of taxpayer funding for the Government-owned postal service is unsustainable, the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) said in a new Green Paper on the organisation’s future.
This sets out its views on how the Post Office should be run in the future, including possible changes to its ownership structure.
The DBT said turning the organisation into a “mutual”, whereby it is collectively owned by its members, was a possible long-term option.One version of this structure could see membership limited to postmasters and franchisees, or it could also include customers, employees and communities.
Read more from PA:
Employee-owned Post Office model ‘unlikely to be considered until 2030’
Chancellor to stick to fiscal rules: 'Non-negotiable'
14:57 , Karl MatchettRachel Reeves is due to give her Mansion House speech tomorrow, where there may be plenty which affects tax and more.
However, these appear likely to be business-related or wealth-tax adjacent, rather than hitting “ordinary working people”, the chancellor said.
“We’ve been really clear in our manifesto about the taxes that we won’t increase, and we’re not going to increase the taxes that working people pay, their income tax, their national insurance and their VAT, because I do recognise the struggle that ordinary working people have faced these last few years with the cost of living.”
She also added that her fiscal rules were “non-negotiable” as “they are what give working people security, around interest rates for example”.
Ikea to open new ‘small stores’ – here’s where and what you can buy there
15:20 , Karl MatchettFurniture giant Ikea is set to open a new smaller shop in a bid to become more accessible, with three new stores planned for this year.
The small store style will be located on existing retail parks, designed to offer customers a quicker shopping experience than is typically seen in their trademark giant warehouses.
An Ikea spokesperson told The Independent they expect more than 100 jobs to be created across all three sites, with the Harlow store opening its doors on 24 July and the other two set to follow later in 2025.
Ikea to open new ‘small stores’ – here’s where and what you can buy
FTSE 100 starts week positively, US stocks flat
16:15 , Karl MatchettThe FTSE 100 is up 0.5 per cent today as we approach the end of the trading session - but in the US, stocks are pretty flat at the start of their day.
The S&P 500 is -0.02 per cent so far, while the Nasdaq is up just about 0.15 per cent.
There may be much more volatility to come during the week though, as tariff talks continue and in the UK, tax takes centre stage tomorrow with Ms Reeves.
