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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Business
Ben Chapman

Business live - Global stock markets rally as fears of trade war and recession ease

Global stock markets have begun to rally after more than two weeks of sustained falls. Stocks had been hammered by fears of a deepening trade war between the US and China but comments made by Donald Trump over the weekend delivered some reason for cautious optimism.

In London the FTSE 100 rose 0.9 per cent, while markets in Germany, France and China also rose.

Donald Trump said on Sunday that America is “doing very well with China, and talking!” and also claimed that the US was "poised for big growth" once trade disagreements are resolved.

Good morning and welcome to The Independent's coverage of business and economics events.
 
Stock markets across Europe and Asia have jumped on renewed optimism that the world's two largest economies could reach a deal on trade.
 
Donald Trump said over the weekend that America is “doing very well with China, and talking!” and also claimed that the US was "poised for big growth" once trade disagreements are resolved.
 
The FTSE 100 is up 0.9 per cent to 7,182.62, partly helped by a jump in oil company shares
Germany's DAX index is up 1.15 per cent to 11,695.26
France's CAC 40 is up 0.9 per cent to 5,349.59
 
Asian indexes also rose overnight.
Travel insurers are now dealing with one new claim every three minutes typically from UK travellers needing emergency medical treatment while overseas.

Some 153,000 travellers needed emergency medical treatment abroad last year - equating to 420 people every day, or one person every three minutes, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) said.
 
The total medical bill paid by insurers in 2018 was £209m - the highest figure since 2010.
 
This meant that medical claims accounted for more than half of the £399m in travel insurance claims paid out last year.
 
Press Association
The looming Brexit deadline is spurring some home buyers into action, according to a website.
 
The average asking price on a home across Britain still fell by 1 per cent or £3,192 month-on-month in August, Rightmove said, adding this was a better performance than usual for the summer holidays.
 
The average price tag now stands at £305,500.
 
The number of sales being agreed is the strongest for this time of year since 2015 and are 6.1% higher than a year ago, according to the index.
 
The North East of England, the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber are leading the way with sales over 10% higher than a year earlier, Rightmove said.
 
Press Association
The number of restaurants in the UK declined by 3.4 per cent in the year to the end of June.
 
Consulting firms CGA and AlixPartners found there were 18 net closures every week.
 
A number of casual dining chains closed branches or folded altogether over the past year as the industry continued to suffer.
 
American chains were among those who bucked the trend with a 58 per cent jump in the number of outlets.
The government's leaked Operation Yellowhammer report appears to confirm that a no-deal Brexit would lead to large-scale disruption to UK food supplies.
 
Justin King, the former chief executive of Sainsbury's has told the BBC that it will take time to "re-source" certain produce from different places.
 
Some may be produced in the UK, however, "if we're talking salad in the winter, that means polytunnels and greenhouses that don't currently exist and often quite significant planning issues," he says.
 
"So there is not easy short-term solution to this kind of blockade."
 
It could also mean higher greenhouse gas emissions as those facilities would have to be heated.
 
 
Oil prices have risen after Yemeni separatists carried out a drone attack on a Saudi oil field.
 
Brent crude rose 1 per cent to $59.22 following the attack by Yemen’s Houthi group on Saturday caused a fire at a gas plant.
 
Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco said production had not been affected.
Brexit and fears of a shrinking economy are causing households to cancel major purchases, according to a poll.
 
IHS Markit's monthly Household Finance Index fell to 43.7 in August from 44.3 in July.
 
Worries about job security hit their highest level since March, when the UK had been set to leave the EU before an extension was agreed.

“The Brexit haze, uncertainty over the political environment and the increased possibility of the UK entering recession appear to have dented expectations,” IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said.
Inflation dropped to 1 per cent in the euro zone in July from 1.3 per cent in June.
 
The lowest annual rates were registered in Portugal (-0.7%), Cyprus (0.1%) and Italy (0.3%).
 
The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.1%), Hungary (3.3%), Latvia and Slovakia (both 3.0%)
 
Cpnnor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex says more important for the markets than the comments of Donald Trump were those of US trade advisor Peter Navarro.
 
"He insisted that the ‘Fed will be lowering rates’ – the central bank is in focus this week with July’s meeting minutes on Wednesday and the Jackson Hole Symposium on Thursday – before predicting that the ECB ‘will be engaging in monetary stimulus’ and China will be ‘engaging in fiscal stimulus’."
 
The prospect of a number of central banks acting to stimulate economic growth has helped share prices rise this morning.

The fast-approaching Brexit deadline and lower house prices have spurred buyers into action, with home sales rising 6.1 per cent on last year, according to August data from Rightmove.

Asking prices fell but less than is usual in August when many people are on holiday, dropping 1 per cent on the month and climbing 1.2 per cent on the year – the highest increase since September last year.

“There’s only so long that buyers and sellers can delay the familial, financial and emotional forces driving the need to move,” said Miles Shipside, housing market analyst at Rightmove.

Home sales jump as looming Brexit deadline unleashes pent-up demand

 

More than a third of economists believe the US economy will enter recession by 2021, up from a quarter in February.

Only 2 per cent expect a recession to begin this year, a poll by the National Association for Business Economics found.

Among concerns cited by economists have been Donald Trump's tariffs alongside ballooning budget deficits.

Trump is pinning his 2020 re-election hopes on a strong economy.
A judge has delayed the most high-profile of the trials stemming from Malaysia's multi-billion dollar corruption case over the looting of the 1MDB state investment fund.
 
Former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak faces 42 charges of corruption, abuse of power and money laundering in five separate criminal cases.
 
The second trial against Najib was delayed on Monday for a week to allow the first trial to end. 
Germany's central bank is warning the country risks falling into recession with output to remain "lacklustre" in the third quarter after a 0.1 per cent contraction between April and June.
 
Germany's poor economic performance of late has prompted the European Central Bank to mull the idea of further monetary stimulus.
 
The government however has traditionally been reluctant to turn on the spending taps, owing to a commitment to balanced budgets, even in times of hardship.
 
However, finance minister Olaf Scholz suggested on Sunday that Germany could spend an extra €50bn (£55bn) if current economic woes worsened to crisis point.
 
Uber has appointed a new boss for Britain and Ireland just weeks before its licence in London expires.
 
Transport for London has previously stripped Uber of its licence, citing concerns over its vetting process and reporting of criminal offences by drivers.
 
Uber currently operates on a temporary licence which expires on 25 September.
 
Melinda Roylett, former Europe boss for digital payment company Square, started today in place of Tom Elvidge, who left for WeWork earlier this year.
The US has postponed a ban on equipment made by Chinese technology company Huawei for another 90 days.
 
America blacklisted Huawei in May because of concerns that its components could be used for spying by Beijing.
 
Washington then granted the company a temporary permit which was due to expire today.
 
"We're giving them a little more time to wean themselves off," says US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
 
Huawei says it is independent of the Chinese state and denies that its equipment poses a national security risk
 
 
Several hundred jobs could be slashed at British Steel by the company’s likely new owners as part of efforts to improve its poor productivity, the Financial Times has reported.

Ataer Holdings, the investment arm of Turkey’s military pension fund Oyak, was unveiled on Friday as the preferred buyer for the steelmaker which collapsed in May.
 
Ataer now has exclusive rights to look into British Steel in greater detail and plans to complete the purchase by the end of the year.
 

British Steel: Hundreds of jobs could be cut to raise productivity
 

Ryanair has blown the chance of finding a resolution before this week’s strike actio​n,” a pilots’ union now says.

On Thursday and Friday, 22 and 23 August, as well as on 2, 3 and 4 September, flight crew employed in Britain by Europe’s biggest budget airline are intending to strike. 

The Independent calculates that 500,000 people with confirmed bookings are at risk of having their flights cancelled over the five days.

The British Airline Pilots’ Association (Balpa) had invited Ryanair to start the week with fresh talks, but instead the airline is taking legal action in the High Court to challenge the legitimacy of the strike ballot.

More from travel correspondent Simon Calder, here:

'Blown the chance' of settling pilots' strike, says union

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