Pressure on hospital systems is inevitable as states relax coronavirus restrictions, but an infectious diseases expert is hopeful a worse-case scenario can be avoided.
Victoria has joined NSW in revealing the southern state's plan to lift lockdown from October 26 in line with rising vaccination rates on the basis of Burnet Institute modelling.
The institute's deputy director Margaret Hellard expects the reopening in both states to put intense pressure on hospitals in coming months.
"We see this around the world. COVID puts pressure on systems. And it's just the reality of it," she told ABC TV on Monday.
"We just have to understand that we've got about six-to-eight weeks where we can do little things that will add up to big things."
A critical factor will be how the reproduction rate of the virus, a measure of how many others a person will infect, changes.
But Professor Hellard stresses people's choices - avoiding others' homes, meeting outside and getting vaccinated - can help avoid a worst-case scenario for hospital numbers and deaths.
"My hope is that we will have some things that change the projections so that the model is a bit more optimistic, the outcome is actually a bit more optimistic," she said of Victoria.
"It's really important that people just don't think that is set-and-forget. We can do things that will help take pressure off our health system, individually and collectively, to make things easier."
Victoria recorded 567 new cases and another death on Monday.
Daily cases are forecast to peak between 1400 and 2900 by late October based on current numbers.
Between 1200 and 2500 patients are expected to require hospitalisation under the scenario.
Should there be a second peak in December, hospital numbers could surpass 2500.
NSW reported four deaths and 935 new local cases, the state's lowest daily infection increase since late August.
The central west town of Cowra will enter lockdown from 5pm Monday after a primary school student tested positive.
There were seven new cases in the ACT, the first single-figure rise for almost a month.
Darwin recorded one new local coronavirus case in a man who returned from NSW.
While 20 close contacts have been forced into two weeks isolation, the NT government has decided not to impose a lockdown because he went straight from the airport to quarantine.
A traveller has tested positive for COVID-19 after potentially being infectious at Brisbane Airport for four hours.
Nationally, 46.67 per cent of people aged 16 and older have been fully vaccinated while 71.67 per cent have received a single dose.
