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ABC News
ABC News
Business
David Chau

Business conditions at 'pre-GFC levels' but confidence only up a bit

Business conditions have returned to "around pre-GFC levels", according to NAB - but business confidence has only improved slightly.

Business conditions have returned to "around pre-GFC levels", according to National Australia Bank's widely-watched monthly business survey.

Stronger trading conditions, particularly sales, and profitability helped lift June's business conditions to +15 (an increase of 4 index points).

NAB reported that most industries are performing well, with wholesale, construction and manufacturing experiencing the biggest gains in conditions (up 25, 16 and 7 points respectively).

But mining was the worst performer, with a 10-point drop in business conditions, due to negative movements in many commodity prices.

Even the beleaguered retail sector finally showed some improvement, but it was notably softer than most other industries in NAB's survey.

In recent months, shares in retailers like JB Hi-Fi, Myer and Harvey Norman took a beating due to concerns about the arrival of e-commerce giant Amazon in Australia, and how that may disrupt the traditional retail industry.

In comparison, the bank noted that business confidence has lagged behind business conditions "for a long time, and that that trend continued in June".

Last month, the business confidence index rose by a single point to +9, which is still higher than the long-run average of +6.

Though this is still better than the May result - which saw confidence fall by 6 points.

"We continue to be pleasantly surprised by just how upbeat the business sector is, given the context of a fairly beleaguered household sector that has been weighed down by limited wages growth and record levels of debt," said Alan Oster, NAB's chief economist.

"In fact, there is even tentative evidence that we are now starting to see some positive spill-overs from the business sector to the broader economy."

Mr Oster's short-term outlook is a positive one.

He expects economic growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, rebounding from "weather-related disruptions", such as Cyclone Debbie, in the first-half.

However, Mr Oster also warned the longer-term outlook could easily "underperform the RBA's upbeat expectations as important growth drivers (LNG exports, commodity prices and housing construction) begin to fade".

His forecast is that the Reserve Bank will keep interest rates on hold for an "extended period" given the risks to the outlook, signs of moderation in the housing market and a reluctance to see the Australian dollar strengthen further.

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