Two polls, two different outcomes. A YouGov/Economist internet poll puts John Kerry in the lead by a point while an Ipsos/Associated Press survey of likely voters puts the incumbent seven points ahead. The trend, if there is one, is that George Bush is losing some of the bounce he enjoyed after the Republican convention (as is to be expected) but it is hard to say much more. Peter Kelner, YouGov's chairman, says a week-by-week analysis of his polls would put the two candidates neck and neck; both the Republicans and Democrats responded to the Ipsos poll by saying the election looked to be getting tighter.
Still, not everyone believes the polls. Michael Moore fired off an email this week to supporters accusing polls of "likely voters" (such as Ipsos's) of disheartening Democrats by ignoring young people and inconsistent voters. "Do not despair. All is not over," he told them. But he forgot about the Halloween masks …
MTV.com reveals Mr Bush's fright masks are outselling Mr Kerry's 56% to 44% (a key to the White House ever since Reagan's masks outsold Jimmy Carter's 60% to 40%). What is more, Mr Kerry cannot rely on his stature. While the 6ft 4in Democrat has the all-important height advantage over the 5ft 11in president, Mr Bush rewrote election history in 2000 in more ways than the one we usually talk about when he emerged victorious against a 6ft1in Al Gore. Even with an extra five inches, Mr Kerry still has his work cut out.
Selling like hot cakes: a Bush fright mask. Photograph: Martin Godwin
