With the weight of history against them, it is just as well for Scotland that Vern Cotter has a habit of ending unfavourable records in France. It was in 2010 that Cotter guided Clermont to the Top 14 title after 10 successive defeats in the final. After the match, Guy Novès – friend, former hunting partner, and opposite number today – sent him a message that read: “Nice bullet, it went straight to the heart!”
As the message would suggest, Cotter is apparently the more accomplished hunter but a triumph against Les Bleus today would be big game indeed. They do not come more understated than “Stern Vern” but while there was little jubilation in the Kiwi’s voice after Scotland’s thrilling 27-22 win against Ireland in the tournament curtain-raiser last weekend, there was certainly relief.
To approach the second week with a win already under their belts is a rare position for Scotland. In fact, they have done so just once before since the Five Nations became Six and it is in stark contrast to last year when they were on a nine‑game losing sequence in the competition. No wonder Cotter has been speaking of the positivity with which Scotland will approach the challenge, all the while acknowledging that an element of surprise has gone out of the window after their exceptional first-half performance against Ireland.
However, if it is one thing France knowing what Scotland will attempt to do, it is quite another stopping it. Even if Finn Russell was quiet against Ireland, the centres Alex Dunbar and Huw Jones were not, while Stuart Hogg was electric at full-back and defensively they were redoubtable, Hamish Watson and the Gray brothers leading the way. In Greig Laidlaw they also have perhaps the form kicker in the northern hemisphere and while comparisons with Jim Telfer’s class of 1999 – the last Scotland side to win in Paris – are inevitable, this year they are merited.
The challenge against France will not be hard to miss, however. Novès has made one change – Loann Goujon replaces Damien Chouly at flanker in a move that only adds to Les Bleus’ power. Scotland’s scrum wobbled against Ireland, particularly in the first half, and Sunday represents another forensic examination of the 21-year-old tighthead Zander Fagerson’s credentials.
“It’s pretty obvious where they are coming at and how they are going to play against us,” said Cotter, who returns to France to take over at Montpellier next season. “They believe they can overpower us. You can see that in the team selection. They believe that this is the game that’s going to set their Six Nations alight.
“We have seen and heard the noises coming out of their camp. It’s pretty clear: they are a big juggernaut, they are going to roll over the top of us, we are the type of team they like to play against. They are good going forward, we just need to see how good they are going backwards. We would like to be able to do that and, if we can, then we give ourselves a chance.”
For Scotland to play with the sort of abandon they would like, they will hope that the Stade de France pitch has lost its habit of cutting up in the opening stages of matches but there is no doubting it would suit the French more if it has not. Simply trying to put the squeeze on Scotland, though, is a dangerous tactic for France. They tired in the final 10 minutes in losing against England last weekend and with a sizeable chunk of Cotter’s side playing their part in Glasgow’s recent home and away victories against Racing 92, travelling to Paris is not the daunting a prospect it once was.
France meanwhile, having lost their past three matches by narrow margins – against England, New Zealand and Australia – are in desperate need of a victory. There is increasing pressure on Novès and if France cannot bulldoze Scotland up front the onus will be on them to free their Fijian flyers out wide. Much will then rely on the scrum-half Baptiste Serin, of whom a big future is predicted, and Camille Lopez at fly-half – that Novès has not changed his half‑backs can at least be viewed as progress.
“It’s true that against Australia we could have won but didn’t; against New Zealand we had a chance at the end and lost by little; against England we lost at the end: it’s annoying,” Novès said. The worry for Scotland is that France will vent those frustrations soon enough.
