Feb. 11--General manager Gar Forman said at last June's news conference introducing Fred Hoiberg as Tom Thibodeau's replacement that the coaching change would "maximize our talent of this team."
Instead, the Bulls limp into this weekend's All-Star break losers of 13 of 18 and without the injured Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah and Nikola Mirotic available on the other side.
A team that began the season with championship aspirations now genuinely has missing the playoffs as a possibility. It seems outlandish given the Bulls' high-profile victories over the Cavaliers, Thunder and Raptors twice each and Spurs once. But the post-break schedule is a tough one, and the Bulls will face the initial part of it short-handed.
So instead of asking whether the Bulls beat LeBron James and the Cavaliers, the better question is whether they will make the playoffs?
Here are three reasons why they will and three why they won't.
Playoff bound
The Bulls will get healthy: At some point, the injury gods have to smile on the Bulls. Don't they?
Noah's shoulder surgery knocked him out for the season, but Butler and Mirotic will return. Butler is having the best season of his career and has taken another offensive jump, adding ballhandling and ability to score in screen-and-roll to his game. His indispensable, two-way talent make him paramount to the team's success.
This being the Bulls, and with Derrick Rose's health always a seemingly precarious situation, another injury could surface. But confounding losses to sub-.500 teams earlier in the season almost have made people forget the team currently is playing without three of its top-six rotation pieces in Butler, Noah and Mirotic.
Rose will continue attacking: It's almost too simplistic, not to mention symbolic, to say Rose's season turned Dec. 10 when he ditched the mask he had been wearing to protect his surgically repaired left orbital bone. But ever since that game, a more engaged and athletic Rose has blossomed.
Rose scored 20 or more points in two of 18 games while wearing the mask. Since then, he has posted 10 such games, including two 30-point outings.
Of more importance, Rose has played with more pace and aggression offensively. He posted 27 assists in a recent three-game stretch, indicative of his penetration to set up teammates.
Mike Dunleavy's minutes will increase: The veteran forward's status grew to near-mythical proportions during his lengthy recovery from offseason back surgery just before camp. But all kidding aside, Dunleavy's ability to stabilize both ends is critical for such an inconsistent team.
Beyond his shooting ability, his passing, screening and moving without the ball improves a team's offense and spacing. Defensively, he's rarely out of position and has a knack for drawing charges.
All signs point to Dunleavy's workload increasing once the post-break schedule begins. The Bulls need him on many levels.
Playoff bust
New rotation players' inconsistency continues: Few players represent the inconsistent season better than Mirotic. After leading the NBA in fourth-quarter scoring last March and finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting, Mirotic was handed a starting berth at the expense of Noah. In short, Hoiberg traded defense and rebounding for offense.
But Mirotic has played so up-and-down that he lost that starting job to Taj Gibson. Later, an ill-advised experiment starting him at small forward was shelved because of defensive issues.
Doug McDermott has shot well from 3-point range all season, but his defensive issues and limited playing time have his attempts down. He hasn't failed this season, but he certainly hasn't flourished, which was envisioned.
Tony Snell has disappeared completely far too often.
Defense continues to, well, rest: Remember when some of those early-season high-profile victories featured huge defensive stops? Think Gasol thwarting James in the opener and Butler denying Paul George in separate victories at the buzzer.
Those were good times.
The Bulls are in a free fall defensively, having allowed seven straight opponents to score 100 or more points during their current slide. The offense hasn't played efficiently enough to overcome that.
With Noah out all season and Butler shelved for weeks, the Bulls have a tough task slowing opponents down. Opponents routinely place the Bulls in screen-and-roll situations involving Rose and Gasol. And the majority of the bench players -- Mirotic, McDermott, Aaron Brooks -- never are going to be confused with All-Defensive teams.
Schedule crushes Bulls: Eight of the Bulls' final 12 games are on the road. And three of the four home games are against the Hawks, Pistons and Cavaliers.
The Bulls can thank the NBA schedule makers that they close the season April 13 at home against the 76ers. If they're in a win-and-they're-in situation, that's about as close to a bye game as possible.
Then again, the Bulls trailed the 76ers by 24 points in the first half Jan. 14 before Butler bailed them out in overtime with a career-high 53 points.
Buckle up. The stretch run promises to be a bumpy ride.
kcjohnson@tribpub.com
