It has been said that the costs of new Shinkansen lines will grow again. The question needs to be raised as to whether the plans themselves are appropriate.
The Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry has suggested that its projection of the construction costs of new Shinkansen lines will increase by about 350 billion yen from the initial estimates. Called into question are sections of the two Shinkansen lines, now under construction: the Hokuriku Shinkansen line between Kanazawa and Tsuruga; and the Kyushu Shinkansen line between Takeo-onsen and Nagasaki.
The ministry says that the labor and building materials costs are projected to grow due to such factors as the manpower shortage and a rise in demand for construction.
Construction costs of a new Shinkansen line are to be shouldered by the state, the relevant local governments and JR companies. It appears certain that the public financial burden will rise.
The challenge lies in how the financial resources can be secured amid dire fiscal straits.
Regarding the Hokuriku Shinkansen line, the section between Kanazawa and Tsuruga was rescheduled to open in fiscal 2022, moving the opening forward by three years from the initial plan. Due to the shortening of the construction period, annual costs have increased.
It is reasonable for the Fiscal System Council to have pointed out that "drastic measures to reduce costs are needed," with regard to further projected increases in the construction costs.
Shouldn't the ministry reconsider the plan from the ground up, without sticking to its scheduled opening time?
Nor to be overlooked is its bungle in connection with the development of a new type of train that was scheduled to be adopted for the new sections on both the Hokuriku and Kyushu Shinkansen lines.
Fix existing infrastructure
The ministry has shelved the development costs aimed at the introduction of a free-gauge train (FGT) on the new Shinkansen lines in its budgetary request for fiscal 2019.
As an FGT car can run on both Shinkansen tracks and those of ordinary trains -- which differ in width -- it is said to offer such advantages as making it unnecessary to purchase land for new railway tracks or to renovate the existing tracks.
Although development costs totaling 50 billion yen have been injected so far, the ministry has given up its planned adoption on the grounds that it cannot solve such technical problems as the abrasions generated on the wheel axles of an FGT car when traveling.
The central government must assume heavy responsibility for having advanced the construction plan on the premise that the new type of carriage would be used, while there was no clear prospect of its being put to practical use.
The plan to build a network of new Shinkansen lines was drawn up during a period when the economy was growing stably amidst a growing population.
In the name of revitalizing local economies, construction was advanced with the initiatives of politicians. Both the Tohoku Shinkansen line and the Kagoshima route of the Kyushu Shinkansen line have already been fully opened.
Yet it remains uncertain whether the sections that are to be developed from this time on can generate an economic return worth a huge amount of investment.
With a declining population, it is hard to expect the number of passengers to grow. With the development of networks of expressways and the popularization of low-cost carriers, for instance, the environment surrounding the development of new Shinkansen lines differs greatly from the time when the plan was initially drawn up.
Reexamination is needed regarding the cost-effectiveness of the extension of the Shinkansen lines.
Deterioration of transport infrastructure, constructed during the nation's rapid economic growth period, has been advancing.
Financial resources are limited. Shouldn't the government preferentially allocate the funds to the repair and renewal of existing infrastructure before anything else?
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 5, 2018)
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