So, what can we take from that?
Well, Labor is going to take its fairness fight to the byelections and, from there, to the general election.
The government is going to ramp up its rhetoric that Labor is “high taxing” and “can’t be trusted”.
The campaign has well and truly begun.
Prepare yourself for months and months and months of this. And the byelections, which are yet to be officially called, but will probably be held on 16 June, are only going to ratchet it up to 11.
And won’t that be fun!
We’re going to wrap it up for tonight (and this week) but we’ll be back, on 21 May, for more parliamentary hunger games.
A massive thank you to Mike Bowers for going above and beyond this week, even from the very high standards he already sets himself. Follow along with him when he is not here at @mpbowers and @mikepbowers. And to the Guardian brains trust for all that they do to keep this blog, and me, running.
And of course, as always, a massive thank you to all of you for reading and playing along. I don’t always get to read through all of your comments, or reply to your messages, but I do appreciate your support of this blog. You’ll catch me when I’m not here @amyremeikis and @pyjamapolitics, where you’ll get a morning update of all things #auspol.
Have fun over this next week and stayed glued to the site for your updates while the blog is resting.
And remember – take care of you. Ax
Updated
Christopher Pyne has quickly sent something out:
The first priority of a government is the safety and security of its people.
For Bill Shorten, it did not rate a mention.
Bill Shorten was part of a Labor government that was responsible for the massive destruction of manufacturing jobs causing the Valley of Death.
To give confidence to our defence industry, Bill Shorten must commit Labor to the Turnbull government’s $200bn investment to boost our military capability while employing thousands of Australians for decades.
Updated
Scott Morrison is keeping his reply pretty short (for now)
Unbelievable Bill, but not in a good way #auspol
— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) May 10, 2018
Mathias Cormann is delivering his verdict on the speech. He says there was no mention of national security or defence and Labor has just proven it plans on going forward with its “high-taxing” agenda. He also mentions that Labor has not delivered a surplus since 1989, “when the Berlin wall” was still up.
Bill Shorten’s dishonesty is really quite breathtaking. He was one of the strongest advocates of tax cuts for all business as it creates jobs and leads to higher wages. Now he keeps deliberately lying about them as he did about #MediScare #ShiftyBill #BudgetReply18
— Mathias Cormann (@MathiasCormann) May 10, 2018
Updated
From Mike Bowers:
Updated
Mathias Cormann has called a press conference for 8.30pm but it is the IPA which got in the first response:
“Bill Shorten’s budget reply makes it clear that Australians will be getting higher taxes and more debt under either a Labor or Coalition government. The only difference is the Coalition would likely be marginally less economically destructive than Labor”, said Daniel Wild, research fellow with the free market thinktank.
“Bill Shorten claims that tax cuts to businesses or workers is the equivalent to a hand-out. This is dishonest and misleading. When taxes are cut, the government is confiscating less money from hard-working Australians, not giving them a hand-out.
“The top 10% of income taxpayers already pay 45% of all income tax. Labor’s proposal will increase this disparity.
“Fairness is about rewarding people for hard work and encouraging upward economic mobility. That is why a single, flat income tax rate is the fairest income tax rate.
“Business investment in Australia is just 12% of GDP, which is lower than during the Whitlam years. Australia’s high business tax rate must be cut to increase investment, job creation and wages.
“The 2018-19 budget is the highest taxing, spending and debt budget in Australia’s history. Debt will reach a record $561bn, taxes a record $473bn and spending a record $484bn.
“To differentiate itself from Labor, the government should immediately commit to even lower taxes, flatter rates, smaller government and a faster path to budget surpluses and repaying national debt.
“Australians who want smaller government, lower taxes, less debt and reduced spending are not being listened to. We have complete bipartisanship when it comes to high taxes, spending and debt.
“Neither Labor or the Coalition will reduce spending, which means neither party will reduce the debt or permanently reduce taxes.
“IPA research has found that a modest 1% spending cut across every commonwealth department would save $263bn over four years and halve Australia’s gross debt.
“The government’s budget included a record level of taxes, debt and spending. What is so worrying is that under a Shorten Labor government taxes, debt and spending would be even higher.”
Updated
Question [After playing the Today show “rolled gold” clip]: We have seen this week that that was way off reality, you have lost four Labor MPs. The Coalition’s already running that clip on social media.
Shorten: Sorry, I don’t quite agree when you said that was way off track. There are facts which we now know ...
Question: Hang on, you said last year you had no problems at all, this week we have seen you had problems.
Shorten: Yes, but what you also said is what I said was not right. The fact of the matter is that the best legal advice we had said that our people would survive what we thought to be the existing law. I’m very sorry that things have got to where they are, no question. I wish I could have pre-empted or guessed the decision of the high court. I know Australians don’t want to have to vote if they don’t have to. I’m sorry about that. The court did set a different standard and plenty of independent experts, maybe not the government ministers, but plenty of independent experts, maybe not Liberal ads on TV, but independent experts have made it clear.
Question: If you look at the judgment, the high court makes it clear it is not a new interpretation, it is upholding its previously stated position, which is showing that you have taken reasonable steps to renounce your citizenship is not necessarily enough to meet the constitutional requirement?
Shorten: In good faith, our lawyers and our legal team presented their arguments, that wasn’t our submission. The court didn’t agree with our submissions and they have made their decision.
Question: Regardless of whether it was your lawyers’ advice, the reality is when we see what you assured Australians last year, you misled them?
Shorten: I go on the best advice I can get and I’m sorry that things have got to where they have got. I understand people’s frustration and annoyance. I think that this section 44 has been quite a tricky section of the constitution. If I had known then what I know now, then of course we would have said something different. I didn’t.
Question: Is this a model for how you will deal with mistakes as prime minister, you will say something misleading and blame others instead of copping it on the chin yourself?
Shorten: No, if you are saying that someone has to be infallible to be prime minister, the last person to claim that died 2,000 years on a cross. I won’t say I will be infallible.
Updated
Question: On your point about insecure employment, since budget night, a number of senators have raised concerns about the fact the government didn’t raise the Newstart allowance from $40 a day. Even John Howard said Newstart should be raised. Why is Labor hiding behind a review instead of saying we will do a $10 a week lift immediately and a review?
Shorten: It’s a good question. The issue of Newstart is real. Unlike the government, I don’t pretend that it would be – that you could live on $40 a day.
Question: Why haven’t you lifted it tonight then?
Shorten: We are not the government. We need to review the payment system to work out what is adequate. But I certainly agree with a lot of the people who are saying it is an issue and you might, you probably didn’t notice in my speech I deliberately sent a message that jobseekers living in poverty is unacceptable.
Question: You will offer an increase in Newstart before the election?
Shorten: I’m not about to start spending billions of dollars on your show, even though I’m defending the ABC in another forum against your cuts. I do think it is an issue. What we are going to do is get the evidence and there is plenty there and look at what we can do and let’s be straight up, I like that John Howard says he cares about Newstart now. He had a chance for 12 years, didn’t he?
Updated
Question: To come back to this point about fairness. On Australian on $200,000, they get four times as much income but they pay more than seven times as much tax. How is that fair?
Shorten: First of all,you forget the person on 60,000 pays GST, you forget that this person’s also paying higher electricity bills.
Question: But the person on 200,000 has an expensive electricity bill?
Shorten: Someone on $60,000 is not saving a lot of money. This is not a competition about who has got a harder luck story. In government, you have to make choices. Mr Turnbull wants to reduce taxes for the top end, I want to do a better deal for ten million Australians.
Question: You have announced an extra 100,000 Tafe positions for locals. Unemployment is at 5.6%. The Reserve Bank classifies 5% as full employment. How are you going to fill those positions when we are almost at full employment?
Shorten: Nearly 9% of Australia are underemployed. When we talk about unemployment, that number only catches part of the picture. We’ve got 700,000 plus people on the disability support pension, very few get the chance to work. We’ve got job searches and seekers who have given up. We have 9% of people underemployed and we have 4 million Australians in casual or are part-time work. This idea that somehow everyone’s on Easy Street pulling down $200,000, that is not the real world. There is insecure employment and people need to retrain. There is a lot of people doing jobs that won’t exist in ten years. Tafe is the educational institute for older Australians to get that second chance and I can’t believe the cuts this government have made to Tafe.
Updated
Question: Your plan wouldn’t benefit people who earn more than $120,000 a year. Let’s take the example of a teacher. You might be a teacher, a senior teacher, a head of department and a principal. You might hope that through your own hard work and some lucky opportunities that one day you might earn $120,000 a year. You said in your speech your plan is a fair go for everyone. Why is somebody in the position I have outlined not as worthy of a tax cut as a first-year teacher?
Shorten: Your question presupposes we are not doing anything else for people. That principal also lives in a community where they want to have well-funded schools and well-funded hospitals. And the reality is there is only so much money you’ve got. I form the view and my Labor team forms the view that if we can look after 10 million taxpayers – and let’s be straight – what happened is I have almost doubled the tax cut offered by the government. This government said we, Labor, doesn’t support lower taxes. I’ve got the better offer for 10 million Australians.
Question: I’m asking if you are saying it’s a fair go for everyone, it is not a fair go for high-income earners?
Shorten: High-income earners need our support less than low-income earners. The fact of the matter is that if you are someone on a good salary, I’m not going to say $120,000 is an amazing salary, if you are someone on $1m, this government has reduced your taxes by $16,000. At the end of the day, you have to make choices. The deal I’m offering Australia is we will reduce the national debt more quickly because we are not giving a lot of money away to the top end of town. We will restore funding to schools, we will make sure hospitals and schools are properly funded. This is a clear choice. This government is saying to people we will give you $10 and forgive us our cuts and decisions, we are saying we will give you more but it is on the basis we can fund our other schools and hospitals and essential services. That is the difference. It is a priorities game.
Updated
Question: On reducing debt and then getting the budget into balance, when would Labor return the budget to surplus?
Shorten: Same year as the government.
Question: So, 2020-21?
Shorten: The government said they will return it to 19-20, so will we. They said they would do it in 2019-20. So the same as the government.
Question: If there is a blowout in that, would you expect to follow them, is this ...
Shorten: What do you mean?
Question: Would that be the same – you would not stick to your projection then?
Shorten: We have – we depend in part upon the government numbers, so if the government has got its numbers wrong, that is a challenge for all of us. Beyond that, we are making long-term reforms and that’s the difference. This government didn’t do anything other than keep their old cuts. What they are – they don’t have a plan, let’s face it. They are offering $10 and hope you ignore the cuts and everything is on the never-never.
The full range of their much-vaunted personal income tax scheme will arrive in seven years. I don’t think Malcolm Turnbull will be around in seven years’ time. It’s a promise on the never-never.
Updated
Bill Shorten starts his 7.30 interview by wishing Leigh Sales a happy birthday.
Question: Let me put to you the same question that I put to the treasurer the other night. Given that the nation has a high level of debt, and the budget is still in deficit, why is now the time to cut income tax?
Shorten: Because we’ve made hard decisions on economic reform. I mean, the fact of the matter is even though we’ve had some criticism from some people, we’re going to wind back the overly generous dividend imputation rules where people who don’t pay income tax get an income tax refund.
We’re going to close down income splitting and discretionary trusts to cap that at 30c and we will reform negative gearing as well. So what we’ve done is we’ve said that we want to reform the tax system and, as a result, we can deliver more money for what I think is a great trifecta for Australia. Restore the funding and the cuts, reverse the cuts in schools and hospitals, be able to provide a much more better income tax cut for people up to $120,000 and also be in a better position to reduce debt. We have made hard decisions and we’re not giving $80bn away to the big end of town.
Updated
So, what can we [very quickly] take from that?
It’s certainly an election commitment. And it doesn’t come close to spending all the money Labor says it can save from its negative gearing and franking tax changes. Which means the opposition has a giant election war chest up its sleeve.
It’s very much a Labor budget – health, education, working-class battlers and taxing the top end of town.
It is also quite targeted, I think. Labor knows who it wants to go after at the next election and they are zeroing in.
Updated
He finishes to applause from his side of the house and a standing ovation, with supporters in the gallery once again chanting “Bill, Bill, Bill”.
Updated
Shorten:
Labor can put real dollars into Australian infrastructure because we are not going to give $80bn to multinationals and big corporations.
In conclusion, my fellow Australians, here is what the fair go means under a Labor government.
Rescuing hospitals and reinvesting in Medicare.
Proper funding for schools, Tafe and university. And a bigger, better income tax cut for tens of millions working Australians.
This is our plan and this is my challenge to the prime minister.
If you think that your budget is fair, if you think that your sneaky cuts can survive scrutiny, put it to the test.
Put it to the test in Caboolture, put it to the test in Burnie, put it to the test in Fremantle and in Perth. I will put my better, fairer, bigger income tax cut against yours. I’ll put my plans to rescue hospitals and fund Medicare against your cuts.
I’ll put my plans to properly fund schools against your cuts and I’ll put my plan to boost wages against your plan to cut penalty rates and I’ll put my plans for 100,000 Tafe places against your cuts to apprenticeships and training and I’ll fight for the ABC against your cuts.
And house by house, street by street, suburb by suburb, my team and I will make this a referendum on your $80bn corporate tax giveaway to multinationals, big business and the big banks.
This nation needs a leader that gets it. It needs a party with a plan for the future. And it needs a government that will deliver a fair go for all Australians.
That is what we deliver. That is our promise.
Updated
If I’m prime minister, tackling dementia and delivering better aged care will be a national priority, backed by real resources.
Because we know that giving older Australians the security and dignity they deserve matters more than an $80bn corporate tax cut.
The same Liberal accounting trickery is a work in infrastructure. Across the four years of this budget, commonwealth investment in infrastructure projects actually falls.
For the Western Sydney Rail Link there is only money for a study, a report.
The same goes for the train – not a single dollar for construction, apparently this government can do it for free.
Only Labor believes in nation building. Good public transport projects, like the cross-river rail in Brisbane or the western Sydney rail line and when we invest in tourism infrastructure in northern Australia and as the [main highway] Tasmania and when we deliver long overdue upgrades to the Bruce highway in Queensland, when we fund and build these projects, we will prioritise Australian-made steel, we will prioritise local workers and we will require that one in every 10 people employed is an Australian apprentices.
Updated
Shorten:
This budget falls hardest on the young and the old. The prime minister is still cutting $14 a fortnight from pensioners.
Still telling Australians to work until they are 70. With no idea what it means to people who have spent their lives doing jobs that are hard on their bodies and tough on their backs.
I actually think one of the sneakiest tricks in this year’s budget is the fraud its perpetrated on Australians in need of aged care.
Around 105,000 older Australians are waiting for homecare packages. But despite all the hype, the government is offering only 14,000 places over the next four years. 14,000 places in four years.
When 20,000 people join the waiting list in the last six months alone. But worst still in question time today we learnt there is no new funding here. They are simply taking the money away from residential care places and putting it in home care places. Nothing new. The people who raised us and cared for us and loved us deserve better than this money-go-round in aged care than cuts to their energy supplement and the world’s oldest retirement age.
Updated
By 2032 over 200,000 people will miss out. Millions of families in our region want their child to go to an Australian university.
They understand what it means to hold a degree from our country. And the government’s freeze won’t affect them.
No, it will simply lockout working-class kids and students from regional Australia.
Tonight I am pleased to announce Labor will restore funding certainty to our universities. We will uncap places providing our nation with more than 200,000 university graduates. Under Labor a university education is not a privilege you inherit, it’s an opportunity you earn.
We will always choose better university opportunities over better tax breaks for the big end of town.
Labor’s plan for training is crystal clear. We will stop the slide to dodgy private providers and back public Tafe all the way.
We will renovate the campuses and rebuild the workshops. We will ensure two out of every three as a minimum of our training dollars goes to public Tafe.
We will invest in programs to help older workers retrain in later life. We already know the expertise our nation will need in the next decade. More workers for the NDIS and in aged care. More construction workers for national infrastructure and housing,more programmers and technicians for the digital age. I don’t want Australia to meet these needs with skills visas. I want to train our people for these jobs.
There is no excuse for a skills vacancy to last one day longer than it takes to train an Australian to do that job.
So tonight I am pleased to announce a Labor government will cover all upfront fees of 100,000 Tafe places in the high-priority sectors of agriculture and engineering and disability and plumbing. We would expect half of these to go to the women of Australia. We will get jobs like carpenters, cook and bricklayer off the skill shortage list. Instead of looking overseas, employers will have a skilled, local workforce ready to go.
And we can make this happen because we put 100,000 Tafe places ahead of $80bn of corporate tax giveaways.
Updated
“The government’s cuts have hit public schools and their 2.5m students the hardest.
“It is public schools that benefit the most when we invest in and restore the extra $17 approximately over the next 10 years.
“It is our public system, teaching 82% of our poorest kids, 84% of Indigenous kids, 74% of the children with disabilities.
“We want the very best when it comes to schools. When it comes to schools at the next election the choice is simple: Labor will put back $17bn extra into the schools and the prime minister will put $17bn back into the banks.
“Nine out of 10 new jobs created in the next four years will need either a university degree or a Tafe qualification.
“It is why Labor believes in quality universities and strong public Tafes, working side by side, equal partners in our nation’s future.
“Yet in this budget the Liberals are cutting more money from university and Tafe.
“In government Labor uncapped degree places and opened the doors of university to a new generation.
“Tens of thousands of students became the first person in their family to go to university.
“That’s the fair go in action. But the Liberal freeze on university funding means 10,000 fewer places are available next year.”
Updated
“Every budget should strive to deliver Australians a better deal today, but I understand so many of the sacrifices people make are about tomorrow.
“About passing on a better set of opportunities for their children. But this budget does nothing for the next generation.
“It betrays it. Young Australians always get a dud deal from the conservative government.
“Young people – they volunteer, they give back to our community, they work to support their studies, pay their GST, they’re funding Medicare, they contribute to super from their first day on the job.
“Yet, in return, the Liberals are cutting school funding. Closing off university opportunities, taking us backwards on climate change, locking first-home buyers out of the market, making it harder to get an apprenticeship or Tafe.
“Young Australians deserve better. So, tonight I promise young Australians Labor will create a level playing field for first-home buyers, because I don’t want us to live in a country where your only chance of owning a home is to inherit one.
“We’re serious too about tackling climate change and helping the environment. 50% renewables by 2030. 45% cut in emissions by 2030, and zero net emissions by 2050.
“I promise young Australians we will not leave you a ruined reef and rivers and oceans choked with waste and we will always invest in your education – schools, Tafe and uni – because we know that when you get the opportunities Australia gets the opportunity.
When you succeed Australia succeeds.
My twin brother Robert is here tonight. So, happy birthday for Saturday!
But he knows that our mother sacrificed everything for our education and it changed our lives.
“If I’m elected Prime Minister, I will make it my mission to ensure every Australian child gets the life-changing opportunity of a properly funded, quality education.
“Reading writing, maths and coding, science and languages, protecting from bullying, online or in the schoolyard.
“I want children to discover and fall in love with what they are good at. I want every public school to be able to offer music and drama and sport and camps.
“This government can announce as many education reviews as they want.
“Everyone knows the cutting school funding doesn’t deliver better results. That is why Labor will put back every dollar the Liberals have cut from schools.”
Updated
“The banking royal commission has lifted the lid at long last on a pathology of exploitation and after years of trying to stop the royal commission, in this budget the prime minister is giving the big four banks $17bn of taxpayer money.
“It’s cutting money from Asic – its tough cop on the beat. This is a disgrace. It is immoral. And Labor will have no part of your actions.
“The government tried talking tough on this, but wagging your finger in the bank’s face means little when you’re giving them a tax cut with your other hand.
“Upping penalties also does nothing if corporate criminals with deep pockets and big legal teams know they can outspend the government.
“That is why tonight I announce Labor will create a special taskforce inside the Commonwealth Department of Public Prosecution to see justice done.
“We will deliver $25m in funding to make sure that public prosecutors have the resources to follow through on the work of the royal commission and in this fight – as always – we stand on the side of ordinary Australians.”
Updated
“We will make sure that every one of these machines is covered by Medicare.
“We can properly fund our hospitals, reversing the cuts of the government and invest new money in Medicare because we’ve made hard choices on tax reform, and because we’re not wasting billions on big business and big banks.
“I also believe that every government has the responsibility to leave the nation better than we find it.
“That is why we will create a national integrity commission, a federal Icac, to improve accountability in politics and public life.
“We will do the right thing by people who have been let down by social institutions. National redress for the courageous survivors of child sexual abuse, new healing initiatives for the Stolen Generations, and to reduce the shocking number of Aboriginal kids growing up away from country and culture.
“And we will ensure justice for people who have been ripped off by the banks.”
Updated
“If someone you love has cancer, it consumes your whole world.
“It is a terrible disease. Chloe and I have been through it with dear friends. My own mum battled breast cancer for many years and as everyone who’s been part of the fight knows, there are endless scans and tests involved.
“For too many people outside our big cities, either their hospital does not have an MRI machine or it’s not covered by Medicare. So, if you live in Emerald, you drive three hours to Rockhampton or you pay hundreds of dollars out of your own pocket each time.
“Cancer does not care where you live or who it strikes. And you should never have to worry about where to go to get the treatment you can afford.
“Healthcare should just be there for you when you need it. That’s what Medicare is all about.
“So, tonight I’m pleased to announce that Labor will provide new MRIs to 20 hospitals and imaging centres in the regions and outer suburbs so Australians have a better level of care.”
Updated
“In the past couple of days we’ve heard the government boast about record funding for hospitals. Let us take a closer look at this record. The cost of seeing a doctor is the highest on record. The average wait time for elective surgery is the longest on record.
“The number of hospital beds available for elderly Australians is the lowest on record. The number of people presenting at emergency departments is the highest on record. And yet one in three patients considered urgent don’t get seen on time. But in this budget, the government locked in a further cut of $2.1bn to hospitals across every part of the nation.
“The health of Australians should never take a back seat to a hand-out for big business.
“So tonight, Mr Speaker, I’m pleased to announce Labor will reverse the prime minister’s cuts to hospitals and create a $2.8bn better hospitals fund.”
“We’ll put more beds in emergency departments, and on the wards. So we can reduce the wait for people sitting in emergency rooms worrying about a child or a loved one who’s hurt or unwell.
“A fund to launch a blitz on waiting lists for elective surgery, so people can get that knee replacement to walk without pain. Or have their cataracts removed so they can watch their grandchildren grow up.
“We will start in Tasmania, which has the worst waiting times in the nation. A year waiting for cataracts and up to 435 days for a knee replacement.
“Our fund will upgrade emergency department facilities in the suburbs and regions, including better security measures to handle the scourge of ice.”
Updated
“Labor’s wages policy is better for workers, our income tax policy is better for households, and both are better for the economy.
“We’ve also got real plans for job creation. We are committed to a tax cut for every Australian small business, for 93% of all Australian businesses.
“We will provide tax incentives for companies who invest here in their own productivity, in new plant and equipment, new utes for tradies, new software, new technology, and our advanced manufacturing future fund will ensure that auto firms abandoned by the current government can adapt and modernise and our commitments to defence moving and local procurement, to agricultural science and research, to tourism and renewable energy and to a better NBN are all about creating the jobs and industries for Australia’s future.
“And we can afford to invest in small business, in productivity and growth, because we choose Australian small businesses and Australian jobs over tax giveaways for multinationals, big banks and big business.”
Updated
Getting back to the speech:
“Now Mr Speaker, every Australia understands that wages have grown by 2% in the past year, slower than the price of things you need to buy, way less than your bills.
“Yet this government in its budget is pretending that wages will increase by over 13% in the next four years. We know that the Liberals haven’t the slightest idea of how this will be achieved.
“And when the current wages system is demonstrably not delivering for workers, they are dreaming.
“If they think that same system will magically deliver much better outcomes. Tonight Labor has shown that we are a party of lower taxes for working and middle-class families, and for more than 120 years we have been the party of higher wages for workers.
“We have a real wages policy.
“Our wages policy will restore Sunday penalty rates, will crack down on wages theft, the abuse of labour hire, where companies shift their permanent jobs on to labour hire jobs just to cut their pay.
“We will get enterprise bargaining off life support and employees and employers back to the negotiating table, for more productive work places, more profitable enterprises and higher wages, and we will lead a new push to deliver genuine pay equity for Australia’s working women.”
It seems there are some Bill Shorten fans in the gallery
Bill Shorten tries to hush to galleries, they started to chant “BIll Bill Bill” when he entered the chamber to deliver his budget reply tonight @AmyRemeikis @GuardianAus @murpharoo #politicslive pic.twitter.com/lMUj5aLwe9
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 10, 2018
So the headline item there is Labor plans on doubling the government’s tax off-set plan.
The opposition has costed its tax plan at $5.8 billion over the next four years.
Under Labor’s plan, this is the size of the offset:
$20,000 - $0
$25,000 - $350
$30,000 - $350
$35,000 - $ 350
$40,000 - $508
$45,000 - $770
$50,000 - $ 928
$55,000 - $928
$60,000 - $ 928
$65,000 - $ 928
$70,000 - $928
$75,000 - $928
$80,000 - $928
$85,000 - $928
$90,000 - $928
$95,000 - $796
$100,000- $665
$105,000 - $534
$110,000 - $402
$115,000 - $271
$120,000 - $140
Updated
Budget-in-reply speech begins
Bill Shorten has taken to the floor to give the traditional opposition budget-in-reply speech. It’s convention for the opposition leader to give the speech, rather than the shadow treasurer
“My fellow Australians (bold by Labor)
As I listened to the government’s fifth budget on Tuesday night, I knew immediately:
We can do better than this.
The people of Australia deserve better than this.
And a Labor Government will deliver better than this.
Better than 10 years of cuts to schools and hospitals – in exchange for $10 a week.
$10 a week.
That’s all the Liberals think it will take, for you to forgive and forget.
They think for $10, you’ll forget they tried to put up your taxes last year.
For $10, you’ll forgive waiting two years for a hip replacement.
For $10, you won’t care about cuts to your child’s school.
That for $10, you won’t mind your internet’s no good and your local Tafe is closing and your daughter can’t find a place at uni.
They think if you get $10 a week, you won’t notice you’re losing $70 in penalty rates from your Sunday pay.
And this prime minister is so out of touch, he thinks if you get $10 a week – you’ll be fine with the banks getting a $17bn giveaway.
The Liberals desperately want you to believe this budget is fair.
But here’s what the prime minister isn’t telling you:
• His $715m cut to hospitals is still in the budget.
• His $17bn cut to schools is still in the budget.
• And his $80bn handout to big business, banks and multinationals is still in the budget.
This budget still cuts money from universities – and it contains a sneaky new $270m cut to public Tafe.
The prime minister is still cutting $14 from pensioners every fortnight.
He’s cutting dental care for veterans, he’s cutting the ABC – yet again.
He’s keeping Medicare frozen for specialists, he’s even keeping the GST on tampons.
And he is still increasing the retirement age to 70.
So tonight, ask yourself:
If your family relies on any of these services, what kind of future is this prime minister offering you?
My fellow Australians, I’m here tonight to outline Labor’s plan to bring the Fair Go back to the heart of our nation.
• A plan to properly fund health and education
• To provide real help with your family budget
• And to invest in the next generation of opportunity for Australia
It’s a plan we can afford – because we’re not going to spend $80bn of public money on big business and the big banks.
And it’s a plan that will work, because Australia thrives when middle class and working class people can get ahead.
Tonight is about a Fair Go for everyone who wants the best for their kids and their future.
A Fair Go for every part of our nation – from the bush and the regions to our cities and growing suburbs.
And a Fair Go for the real forgotten people: working families, pensioners and Australians doing it tough.
INCOME TAX
Mr Speaker our plan begins with a better and fairer tax system.
After years of flat wages, rising power bills and increasing health costs, it’s time for a fair-dinkum tax cut for middle class and working class Australians.
I’ve already said Labor will support the government’s modest tax cuts starting 1 July this year.
And tonight, I announce a Labor Government will go further and do better on tax cuts for working and middle income Australians.
We will support the government’s tax cut this year – and in our first budget, we will deliver a bigger and better tax cut for 10 million working Australians.
Almost double.
This is my pledge to 10 million working Australians:
Under Labor, you will pay less income tax – because I think you are more important than multinationals, banks and big business.
In our first term of government, a teacher on $65,000 will be $2780 better off under Labor - an extra $928 a year.
A married couple - one partner in the ADF earning $90,000 and the other working in aged care on $50,000 - will be $5565 better off under Labor, $1855 a year.
Labor can afford to do more to help you and your family because we’re not giving $80bn to big business and the big four banks.
And because we’ve already made the hard choices for Budget repair.
• Creating a level playing field for first-home buyers, by reforming negative gearing and capital gains
• Cracking down on tax avoidance by eliminating income-splitting in trusts –without affecting farmers.
• And ending unsustainable tax credits for people who pay no income tax – while protecting pensioners and charities.
Mr Speaker,
At the next election there will be a very clear choice on tax:
10 million Australians will pay less tax under Labor.
We can afford to cut your taxes, without cutting services, because unlike the Liberals, we’re not wasting $80bn on a discredited giveaway to the top end of town.
DEBT
Mr Speaker,
Labor’s plans mean we can deliver the winning trifecta in government:
• A genuine tax cut for middle and working class Australians
• Proper funding for schools, hospitals and the safety net
• And paying back more of Australia’s national debt, faster.
There was a time, I remember, when the Liberals ran around saying a debt of $227bn was a “budget emergency” and a national crisis.
I remember, when they were elected, they said every man, woman and child, owed $9,000
But on Tuesday night, I don’t remember hearing the Treasurer admit that debt has doubled under the Liberals.
I don’t remember him admitting that it’s now: $21,778 for every man, woman and child.
I don’t remember him admitting that next year, total interest payments on Australian debt will pass $18bn.
$18bn, every year.
That’s more than the commonwealth spends on the NDIS or aged care or child care – it’s twice as much as Australia spends on public schools.
And the Liberals’ only strategy is to cross their fingers and hope.
That’s not good enough in a time of trade conflict between America and China, in an age of soaring global debt and rising US bond markets.
No Australian government can prevent global bad news – but good governments do prepare for it.
This isn’t the time to blow everything because of a short-term economic upswing. That would be an act of generational folly.
It might not be fashionable, but it’s time to be responsible.
Labor’s economic reforms have put us in a much stronger position to cope with international uncertainty, over the decade.
We can pay down national debt, faster - because we’re not giving $80bn to multinationals – and because we’ve made the tough decisions.
PROGRESSIVE TAX
Mr Speaker
On Tuesday night, we discovered the Liberals are planning to radically re-write the tax rules in this country.
And the more Australians learn about this scheme, the less they like it.
Australians have got every right to ask, how can it be fair?
How can it be fair for a carer on $40,000 to pay the same tax rate as a doctor on $200,000?
For a cleaner to pay the same tax rate as a CEO?
How can it be fair that, under this tax experiment: the doctor earns five times as much as the nurse – but his tax cut is16 times bigger?
And today, new research revealed that under this plan, 6 in every $10 will go to the wealthiest 20% of Australians.
Very quickly, this is starting to look like a mate’s rates tax plan from the Liberal Party.
And at a time of flat wages, rising inequality and a growing sense of unfairness in the community.
When too many jobseekers are stuck in poverty, when children go to school hungry, when women fleeing family violence can’t find safe accommodation …
… people are worried this plan isn’t fair or affordable.
And, frankly, Australians are also entitled to be pretty suspicious of this whole thing.
To wonder if this ‘come and talk to me after two elections’ plan, this promise on the never-never, will ever happen.
My team and I are ready to vote for tax cuts for working families.
And we will not allow the Prime Minister to threaten to block tax cuts for 10 million Aussies, unless the parliament writes a cheque for the wealthiest.
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Yes they are
The bells are ringing, likely for the final time this week.
— Australian House of Representatives (@AboutTheHouse) May 10, 2018
One little bit of early news – Labor plans on scrapping upfront fees for 100,000 Tafe students as part of a $470 million plan to “boost Tafe, apprenticeships and skills for Australians”.
“In the last five years, more than $3 billion has been cut from Tafe and training, and Australia has 140,000 fewer apprentices today than we did when the Liberals were first elected,” Bill Shorten said in a statement before his speech to parliament.
“... This has reduced employment opportunities for middle and working class people, including women, young people and workers retraining later in life.
“It has also limited our capacity to meet demand in growing occupations in the disability, aged care, and technology focused sectors.”
Labor has also vowed to invest $100 million in “modernising” Tafe campuses around the nation, “guarantee” at least two out of three Commonwealth training dollars goes to Tafe (this was also an election commitment).
The party has also recommitted to its election vow to ensure “one in every 10 jobs on commonwealth priority projects are filled by Australian apprentices”, provide 10,000 pre-apprentice programs and 20,000 adult apprentice programs.
The Tafe plan has been budgeted at $473 million over the next four years and $708 million over the next decade.
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We are back
Bill Shorten’s speech is due in the next 30 minutes.
I am going to hand the blog over for a short while, so I can take a quick break ahead of budget-in-reply.
Play nicely. I’ll see you back here, just before 7pm.
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Josh Frydenberg is fighting back against Labor’s attacks on the Coalition’s renewable energy policy.
From his statement:
Mark Butler’s latest feeble attempts to criticise the government’s record on renewable energy and jobs brings to mind the old aphorism: Better to remain silent and be thought misinformed, than to speak and remove all doubt.
Mr Butler, who hasn’t asked a question of me in the parliament for over 200 days, claims:
The government is “anti-renewables” and undermining renewable jobs.
The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) is reducing its investment plans in the budget papers due to the government having a “war on renewables” and the national energy guarantee.
But here are the facts:
Almost 1m jobs have been created in the economy since the Coalition was elected and 2017 was the strongest year of jobs growth on record. Our record on jobs is clear.
Jobs in the renewable energy sector increased 33% last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Jobs in large-scale renewable energy are at their highest on record.
Renewable energy sector jobs fell under Labor by 13% or 2,500 in their last year in office.
Last year, was Australia’s biggest ever year for renewables and more than $12bn and more than 7,000 MW of investment is now underway, according the Clean Energy Regulator.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in 2017, Australia was the world’s third-highest clean energy investor on a per-capita basis – four [times] the investment per capita of China, five times [of] France.
The CEFC used identical forecast figures in this year’s budget as last year’s budget – before the Neg even existed.
The CEFC has confirmed there has been no change in the CEFC’s forecast of commitments or anticipated draws from the CEFC special account as a result of the Neg.
Rather than increasingly desperate dog whistling to its left flank, Labor should be explaining to the Australian people:
- Why it wants to put Australian jobs at risk with its reckless emissions reduction targets that it has no idea or plan how to reach
- Why is it abandoning 900,000 jobs in Australia’s manufacturing sector with its policies to increase prices and decrease reliability
- Why it wants to take South Australian Labor’s failed 50% renewable energy target experiment national
- Why it joined in with the Greens in the Senate to pass a motion to “encourage” the closure of coal-fired power stations, selling out blue-collared workers in regional Australia for inner city green votes
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Just a reminder – Bill Shorten will deliver the budget-in-reply speech at around 7.30pm.
We’ll be keeping the blog open to cover it, and his interview with 7.30 immediately after.
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And from Mike Bowers lens to your eyeballs:
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Susan Lamb’s resignation means Emma Husar has a new seat buddy.
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The Greens’ Rachel Siewert moved a motion in the Senate to increase Newstart by $75 a week, which was defeated, with Labor and the government combining to vote it down.
“Despite the broad group of economists, business and social service organisations saying that the payment definitely needs to be increased, both major parties are showing cowardice,” Siewert said in a statement.
“The rate of Newstart does not need to be ‘reviewed’; it needs to increase urgently, and the ALP knows this.
“It has been well established that it is dangerously low and causing harm to jobseekers. It’s time for Bill Shorten to come off the fence.”
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For anyone wondering, I put the “rolled gold” count at 30 for that question time.
And with Nemo’s stamp of approval, question time ends.
Josh Frydenberg on his budget dixer “EVEN NEMO HAS GIVEN HIS APPROVAL TO THIS BUDGET”.
Probably. We all know I don’t really listen to dixers. #deathtodixers
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Tony Burke attempts to table page 193 of the budget portfolio statement, which Ken Wyatt referenced in a previous answer, because it is the table of contents for digital health.
Which sounds EXACTLY how I would have failed the bibliography section of my assignments. Who knew Wyatt and I had so much in common?
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Julie Collins to Ken Wyatt:
I refer to his previous answer. Can the minister confirm that funding for residential and home care has been combined into a single-line item in the budget? And given this single-line item does not show anything close to the increase of $1.6bn for aged care the government has claimed, isn’t the minister perpetuating a cruel hoax on older Australians?
Wyatt starts his answer the same way I used to fill out essay answers when I needed to meet a word limit, but I had no idea what to say.
I thank the member for her question. And I certainly do. It’s great to talk about the needs of older Australians. It’s important that we talk about the way in which governments provide services. And it’s important that we use the resources effectively to provide choice within the mix of the total budget that we allocate. And our allocation of budget goes to very critical programs.
Good to know. He moves on.
Now, in response to your question, we paid in residential care for beds occupied. We provide opportunities for home care packages that allow people to have choices to live at home. That, when you combine the efforts of this government, we are at least providing real choice that allows Australians to either live at home or make the choice to live in residential care. Now, in doing that, what I considered – and what we considered was the forward years in terms of the number of places required in both. That the number of residential beds required will continue to increase substantially. The number of home care packages will also increase in those out years.
Our commitment is to making sure that, across this nation, geographically and in capital cities, that we give absolute choices to people. And I want to identify resources that are best-placed to give people that choice of home care or residential care. And in our budget, we have given attention to the needs of people with high-need places, so that we give them the levels of support. And we continually wrap around other supports out of the programs that we have within the aged care portfolio. Because it makes no sense – yes, if you don’t understand the term “wrap around”, it just means that we provide, member for Lilley, services that help people who have a need. I can come and explain it to you very, very simply. Because you didn’t understand it when you were treasurer. Because, had you done that, we wouldn’t have the challenges for senior Australians we have now.
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Julie Collins to Ken Wyatt:
My question is to the minister for aged care. Before the budget, Australians were told the government would axe the cut to the energy supplement, announce 20,000 new home care places, and invest billions more in aged care. Given none of this happened, hasn’t the minister perpetuated a cruel hoax on older Australians?
Wyatt:
I would suggest that the member, firstly, read the portfolio budget statement in respect of pages 193. That identifies ... over the forward years. It is a $bn investment. Now, when we consider – and let me go to another issue in this answer – a rolled-gold treasurer had responsibility for setting the budgets in home care packages under the Living Longer Living Better legislation. Had he looked at the Australian population pyramid, he would have made a different judgement in respect to the amount that was required. So, the member for Lilley needed to take that into consideration.
What we’ve done is we have invested in aged care to the tune of $5bn. We’ve increased the number of residential care beds. We’ve increased the number in the forward years of home care places. We are providing programs and services to regional Australia that has a better outcome for people living in the bush. Our budget figures are accurate. They are not zero.
I would suggest to the member for Franklin you read both my statement yesterday and the budget papers. Because we are making a serious commitment to senior Australians in this nation, across Commonwealth Home Programs, Home Care Packages and residential care, plus those supporting measures which give them the quality of life that they deserve, for the work that they have done for this nation.
To scaremonger, to fearmonger and create angst in senior Australians is not appropriate. I have people who have now said they are not going into aged care because of the politicking that is occurring. Start to consider the needs of those who have the pathway into support services.
But our budget measures are increasing. If you look at each year, we increase by approximately$1bn per year, and over the last four years we’ve increased the budget by $bn to make up for the deficit that was there when we came into government from a Labor government. There is a need for us to focus on their needs, and to ensure that they are given the opportunities.
We move on to Paul Fletcher for a dixer, but a moth just flew into the office and I got distracted.
Wait – he brings me back in with a mention of “Team Queensland”. According to emails that went out today, Peter Dutton is the leader of Team Queensland. I thought it was Cam Smith, but apparently that’s changed since I left.
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Another dixer.
The budget is great guys. All hail the budget. #deathtodixers
Jim Chalmers to Malcolm Turnbull:
Why was the prime minister willing to separately legislate different stages of the government’s corporate tax cuts but is unwilling to do the same for tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners? Why is it always one rule for big business and another for low and middle income earners? Isn’t the prime minister the only person standing in the way of tax cuts for ordinary Australians from 1 July?
Turnbull punts it to Scott Morrison:
We’ve put the whole enterprise tax plan to this parliament. We put that in this House of Representatives and it was passed by this House. And we’ve done exactly the same thing here, Mr Speaker. And I say to the member – and if they give leave, we’ll be happy to debate this bill right now, Mr Speaker. Why don’t you give us leave and we’ll pass it now, the whole thing? Come on! Let’s have the debate. Let’s pass the bill! Shall I seek leave, Mr Speaker, to bring on that motion of business?
We’ll have that opportunity very shortly, if they so desire, Mr Speaker. We gave them that opportunity the other day, and the shadow treasurer scurried under the table there, Mr Speaker, like the little rat he is, Mr Speaker. He’s got under there ...
He is made to withdraw the rat comment, and does.
I would hate to offend the sensibilities of the member for McMahon [Chris Bowen], Mr Speaker. We know what a precious flower he is, Mr Speaker. We know what a petal he is. But, Mr Speaker, when it comes to this issue, I have a question for the Labor party, and I know the answer, so it’s rhetorical. They, Mr Speaker, do not want to act on bracket creep in this country.
That’s what they’re saying. They have been shifty all week on this, as shifty as the leader of the opposition. They’re hedging their bets, they’re saying, “We’ll support this. Maybe we’ll support that.” The Australian people just want a straight answer from the Labor party. Do you support lower taxes for all Australians? Simple question. Or are you just gonna – are you gonna be stuck in your rut of envy and bitterness and want to punish Australians, who are just working hard and seeking to get on, Mr Speaker?
The Labor Party, when it comes to tax, are rolled-gold failures. Absolute rolled-gold failures. And they’re led by a rolled-gold failure.
He delivers it in much the same way as I imagine Donald Trump yells at the television while watching Saturday Night Live.
Updated
Right, after a discussion in the office about what the convicts in chain gangs, as well as the Indigenous people and early immigrants, in particular the Chinese, would have thought about the statement that this country was “not built on envy and bitterness”, we get back to it.
Bill Shorten to Malcolm Turnbull:
Can the prime minister confirm that under his tax plan a nurse who earns $50,000 will have the same marginal tax rate as a lawyer who earns $200,000 a year? And how is that fair?
Turnbull:
I thank the honourable member for his question. Under the revised tax scales at the end of the seven-year plan, the 45c threshold comes in at $200,000, so the marginal tax rate there on is 45c in the dollar. Plus, of course, the Medicare levy. So, the 32.5c marginal rate goes from $41,000 to $200,000...”
[Can I direct members to] ... the Grattan report, which they’ve quoted earlier. And I just note that this states here, once fully implemented, “the personal income tax plan doesn’t change the progressivety of the tax system much. Overall, those on high incomes will pay a similar proportion of total tax revenues, with or without the plan.
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Chris Bowen to Scott Morrison:
I refer to Grattan Institute modelling into the government’s personal income tax scheme released a short time ago. Can the treasurer confirm that $15bn of the annual $25bn cost of the government’s scheme will come from collecting less tax from the top 20% of income earners? Treasurer, how is this fair?
Morrison:
In 2015-16, those on the top tax bracket paid 30.3% of all personal income tax collected. And under the government’s plan, Treasury estimates those on the top tax bracket will pay around 36% of all personal income tax collected in 2024-25. As the prime minister was pointing out before, someone earning $205,000 will be earning five times more but paying 13 times more tax, 13 times more tax, Mr Speaker.
So, under this plan, under this plan, the progressivety of our tax system is well protected and well respected.
Mr Speaker, the problem with the Labor party is they don’t understand that this country was not built on envy and bitterness, and our tax system shouldn’t be built on envy and bitterness either. Those opposite, the Labor party, think that the only way that people on low and middle incomes can do better is if they make people on other incomes do worse. This is the flat-earth thinking that chokes economies, Mr Speaker, and that’s why the Labor party cannot be trusted to run what will be estimated, over the next four years, a $2tr economy.
I wouldn’t trust the leader of the opposition with $2, Mr Speaker. And yet he walks around here, thumping himself about on issues of rolled-gold guarantees. Well, he might think he’s the golden member of this parliament, Mr Speaker, but he’s a rolled-gold failure as a member of this parliament.
The Grattan Institute has released its modelling of the government’s $140bn, seven-year, personal income tax plan. What did it find?
— Gareth Hutchens (@grhutchens) May 10, 2018
When fully implemented $15bn of the annual $25bn cost of the plan will result from collecting less tax from the top 20% of income earners #auspol pic.twitter.com/sIgjpsEqC7
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Opposition leader Bill Shorten in the eye of the rolled gold storm during #qt @AmyRemeikis @GuardianAus @murpharoo #politicslive pic.twitter.com/Jt99W1F8jq
— Mikearoo (@mpbowers) May 10, 2018
Tanya Plibersek to Malcolm Turnbull:
Is the prime minister aware that on Sky News today, the CEO of the Grattan Institute said the government’s income tax scheme includes “a small tax cut for low income earners and a very large tax cut for high income earners”? Can the prime minister detect a pattern here? Is this why the prime minister won’t give a straight answer on the cost of his policies?
Turnbull:
All of the details of the impact of the personal income tax cuts on different levels of income and different households are all set out in the budget papers and accompanying documents. And it is very, very clear that tax relief goes, in the first instance, to people on low and middle income, and subsequently it goes to the broad range of income earners other than those, of course, the only rate – the rate that is not affected is the 45% rate and the threshold is lifted to $200,000 in seven years’ time. What will the cost - the 10-year cost has been given already by the treasurer.
But the point is – the point is that their income tax system remains, in terms of the distribution of the burden, as it is today, where the largest share of the tax is paid by those on higher incomes. And I refer the honourable member to the answer I gave the member for Melbourne a moment ago.
Peter Dutton is up next for his daily dixer - YOU ARE ALL REALLY, REALLY SAFE.
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Christopher Pyne diverts from his favourite dixer topic of how terrible unions and the Labor party are, to allow a dixer on how terrible Labor is at interpreting high court rulings.
He finishes with this: “I’m afraid the leader of the opposition’s political career is starting to have the smell of death about it.”
(That’s two dixers off the budget topic now, less than 48 hours after the budget was delivered)
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Tony Burke to Scott Morrison:
Given the treasurer refuses to provide the updated costing of his corporate tax cuts, will he at least say whether it’s higher than the figure he stated last year? Is it $80bn? Is it below $100bn or above $100bn? Are we getting warmer? Does he know whether it’s an odd number or an even number? Or does he have a clue about a figure he could answer last year?
Scott Morrison, who still somehow has a voice, despite having given Cardi B a run for her money in terms of the volume stakes, appears to have misunderstood what exactly Pharrell and Daft Punk meant about getting lucky:
I can assure the member opposite that when it comes to economic management, the Labor party is as cold and as stone-cold as they come. They have not got any warmer in opposition than they were in government.
When they were in government, Mr Speaker, they recklessly spent. And the thing about the Labor party is this – when they’re in government, when they’re in government, it’s always someone else’s fault. Despite the facts, they had $150-a-tonne iron ore prices and they had global growth running at higher rates, Mr Speaker, it wasn’t up to them that the revenue fell out.
It was always someone else’s fault. But when it was the Liberal party and the National party in government back in 2007, the member for Lilley and others used to go, “Well, it’s only going so well in the economy because they’ve all just got so lucky. Terribly, terribly, terribly lucky.” And we have been hearing it from them again now when we’re talking about the stronger economy that’s been built under this government. And they’re saying it’s all about what’s happening overseas.
They’re all just getting so terribly, terribly, terribly lucky again. Well, what I’ve noticed, Mr Speaker, is every time Australians vote Liberal and National, they get a lot luckier, the economy gets a lot luckier, Mr Speaker. I’ve got one response – vote Liberal and National and get lucky.”
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Bill Shorten again asks Malcolm Turnbull about the total cost of the company tax cut.
The prime minister again launches into something that is not about the company tax cut, and Tony Smith interupts:
I have a ruling I’d like to make, if that’s OK. I have been listening very carefully to the prime minister. I listened very carefully to the question. And whilst that is a topic of the day, the question did not relate to it. And the prime minister needs to address himself to the substance of the question.
We move on to a dixer where Christian Porter gets to read out the high court ruling on Katy Gallagher and say “rolled gold” a million times.
You can’t trust him on the law. You can’t trust him on the economy. You can’t trust him on the budget. It is shifty, shifty, shifty.
So now it’s confirmed - there is the Coalition’s campaign slogan. But it looks like even they have gotten bored talking about the budget.
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Scott Morrison gets the latest “this budget is as if a tiger and a lion had a baby and the resulting liger discovered a unicorn that vomited gold” dixer.
You can hear him winding up to his “muppet” zinger, speaking as fast as you would if you had to complete a reading of Middlemarch to the class before you can get to the bathroom.
Boom – we get there: “What we see in the leader of the opposition is a shifty character. He’s shifty as.”
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Adam Bandt has today’s crossbench question:
Australia has a proud history of egalitarianism and we can look after everyone in our community because of our progressive tax system, where people who earn more pay a higher rate of tax. But your new flat tax plan is the end of progressive taxation in this country. How is it fair that someone earning $200,000 a year pays the same rate of tax as someone who is just above the minimum wage? Why do you want to be the prime minister that killed egalitarianism?
Malcolm Turnbull (using his “I was a lawyer, you should probably listen to me, because I’m right” tone of voice):
I want to thank the honourable member for his question, Mr Speaker. Because it gives me the opportunity to remind the honourable member that at the end of the seven-year personal income tax reform plan that we are setting out, which has been set out in the budget, it’s been introduced into the House in legislation by the treasurer, at the end of it, where 94% of Australians will not have to pay more than 32.5c for any additional dollar they earn, so the marginal tax rate, which he’s objecting to – yes, he doesn’t like it – from $41,000 up to $200,000 will be 32.5c.
This is the outcome. At that time, someone on $205,000 taxable income, earning five times as much as someone on $41,000 taxable income, will pay 13 times as much tax. And that is the whole point. The tax system remains thoroughly progressive in the sense that the bulk of the tax is paid by people on higher incomes.
It remains the bulk of the tax, as it is now, will be paid by the few and not by the many. But, but what it will ensure is that constituents in his electorate, in every electorate in this House, who want to earn more, who want to get ahead, who want to do some more hours, who want to take on another promotion or start a business, will know that they will not be put off that or disincentivised by higher and higher marginal tax rates. It is an outstanding reform, and it speaks to the optimism, the confidence and the aspiration that underpins the strength of the Australian economy. We know what makes the Australian economy strong. It’s the optimism, the investment, the confidence of Australians. Of Australian businesses in particular. And we are backing them.
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Tanya Plibersek:
This morning, The Australian newspaper reports economist Saul Eslake said the total cost of tax cuts over 10 years, legislated and proposed to be legislated by this government, could be even higher than $80bn. Is he right?
#theprimeministerdoesnotanswerthequestion
Moving on.
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Chris Bowen to Scott Morrison:
Given the treasurer has now had 24 hours to confirm the answer, I ask what is the total cost of the corporate tax cuts over 10 years from 1 July this year, both legislated and proposed to be legislated by the government?
Morrison:
The unlegislated tax plan that the member refers to, the cost of that is $35.6bn over the period from 2016-17 to 2027-28. To 2027-28. It’s 10 years. Count them up. Mr Speaker, what the Labor party wants to know is what is the cost of increasing tax on small business.
Now, we don’t have a policy to increase tax on small and medium-sized businesses up to $50m. I don’t have such a policy. The prime minister doesn’t have such a policy.
The only people who have a policy to increase taxes on small and medium businesses is the Labor party. So, if that’s their policy, Mr Speaker, they should tell Australians what it costs.
Because we don’t have such a policy. It’s their policy to increase taxes on small and medium-sized businesses. So, the shadow treasurer should be talking to the 3.3m businesses out there that have a turnover of less than $50m, and he should say to the 7.2 million Australians who work for those businesses, why you’re putting up the taxes on those businesses.
That’s your policy. You cost it. Do your own work. We’re getting on with the job of putting more than a thousand people in work every single day, under the policies of this government, Mr Speaker. So, it’s up to them to do their own work.
But, Mr Speaker, whatever they promise tonight from the leader of the opposition, whatever rolled-gold promises he makes to the Australian people, we know, Mr Speaker, that no one can trust the rolled-gold promises of the leader of the opposition, Mr Speaker. Even those on his own side of politics can’t trust the rolled-gold promises of the leader of the opposition. The workers he used to represent when he used to bargain away their penalty rates, Mr Speaker, they couldn’t trust the rolled-gold promises of the leader of the opposition.
The leader of the opposition is shifty as.
Having delivered it in the same tone of voice I imagine he uses after being cut off for the fourth time in a row, while running late for the NRL grand final, Morrison runs out of steam as he uses the millennial-approved “shifty as” insult. Bill Shorten stands with a point of order:
You know, the treasurer makes a mockery of doing personal explanations. We’ve dealt with that matter. He knows better.
We move on to the latest THIS BUDGET IS AMAZING AND HAS GREAT SKILLS AND VOTERS LIKE BUDGETS WITH SKILLS dixer.
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Question time begins
Where we left off yesterday – Bill Shorten wants to know what the total cost of the company tax cuts are.
Malcolm Turnbull opens with a prepared bit on “rolled gold guarantees”:
He is a guaranteed deliverer of Olympic proportions. He gave a rolled gold guarantee that all of his members, including the ones that have just resigned, were eligible to sit in the House! And he did so – he did so after – after the high court had made it abundantly clear last year – last year – that they were not eligible. Oh, yes! He did. He kept on saying they were fine. And, of course, he was backed up by that booming advocate, the member for Isaacs [Mark Dreyfus]. A reminder, Mr Speaker, I am reminded of the late Neville Wran, when he said, “Anyone can go to jail if they get the right lawyer.”
Tony Burke has a point of order:
The question was very specific. If the prime minister wants to talk about what the high court will, so hold, he can do so in answer to a dixer.
Turnbull gets back to it, by talking about Labor’s tax plan.
Burke objects again, and says the PM has defied the order to get to the point. The Speaker, Tony Smith, rules he’s not, because he has ben “comparing and contrasting” tax plans.
Christopher Pyne says something allowing the Speaker to indulge in one of his favourite QT activities – burning Christopher Pyne:
His interjections are regular but they’re not persuasive.
Turnbull gives the same answer he and Scott Morrison spent all of yesterday not answering.
We move on to the first of “how awesome is this awesome budget” dixers. Tl;dr: Malcolm Turnbull loves this budget as much as Kanye loves Kanye.
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Super Saturday TBA
Tony Burke has announced that he has received the resignations from Justine Keay, Susan Lamb, Josh Wilson and Tim Hammond.
He’ll tell us later when the byelections will be held (probably 16 June).
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It’s that time again. The bells are ringing and I have a box of pizza shapes. LET’S DO THIS.
#QuestionTime is about to commence in the Chamber. Watch it live at https://t.co/8DB1X3AQDV
— Australian House of Representatives (@AboutTheHouse) May 10, 2018
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Sarah Hanson-Young is not letting the change of thinking on the Murray-Darling basin plan go by without criticism:
The disgraceful deal between the Labor and Liberal parties to sell out the Murray does nothing to guarantee water delivery for South Australia, at a time when our Coorong and Lower lakes are dying. We must enshrine more water for the river in legislation.
The Labor party said they couldn’t support handing 70b litres over to big corporate irrigators when they supported the Greens’ disallowance in February, because of the rorting, water theft and corruption rife in the northern basin, yet the only thing that has changed in the northern basin is that Labor is now on the side of big cotton.
Labor holds a misplaced belief that they’re champions for the basin – well, they’ve sold it out, and the millions of Australians who rely on it.
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Anthony Albanese was asked on Sky about whether or not Labor’s MPs should have resigned over the dual citizenship stuff earlier (they have officially resigned today):
I don’t think the mob out there give two hoots about that. It’s a bit like having a debate after a footy game in which I always think that Souths haven’t had a fair rub of the green and whether, you know, someone dropped the ball at the right time or forward passes.
That doesn’t matter. What matters is the outcome that the high court has determined means these byelections are on. This is about that, and our focus should be on the future and on our plans for Australia. This gives us an opportunity to really campaign on Labor’s vision for Australia in the lead-up to, as a bit of a dry run if you like, to the general election, whenever that may be, whether it’s later this year or early next year.
And will Labor hold its seats?
Labor’s been ahead of course in the national polls for some time – the famous ‘30 Newspoll’ comment that Malcolm Turnbull wishes he’d never made. It’s now up to 31 or 32 that we’ve been ahead. These are all held seats. Traditionally, byelections tend to favour oppositions and we’ve got good candidates. These people have all been good representatives.
In Perth I’m sure we’ll have a very good candidate there when that’s determined. We endorsed at the ALP national executive last Saturday the other three. They are good hard-working representatives in their seats. They’re all having an impact both in their local communities [and] here in Canberra, and they’re all worthy of support and I’m sure that they will get that support. We’ll certainly be doing what we can as a movement to mobilise support for them on the ground.
There is currently a giant 3-0 which has been landscaped into the parliament lawn, to celebrate the building’s 30th birthday. I guess the PMO can be thankful this building was not finished any earlier ahead of schedule.
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Labor’s disability spokeswoman Carol Brown has released a statement over the shocking footage of a boy with autism being attacked outside his school:
Reports this morning of another tragic incident of abuse against a boy with autism outside a school in Melbourne are shocking and deeply disturbing.
Words can’t describe how appalling this kind of abuse is. The abuse of people with disability is absolutely unacceptable. I offer my sympathies to the student with disability and his family.
Sadly, these shocking and harrowing cases of violence and abuse are far too often experienced by people with disability. These acts of abuse cannot be ignored.
A royal commission is needed so that people with disability, their families and carers can tell their stories to the highest level of judicial inquiry.
That’s why almost a year ago we announced that a Shorten Labor government would establish a royal commission into violence and abuse against people with disability.
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Centre Alliance on board with personal tax cuts, well some, anyway
I’ve just had a word to Stirling Griff, the Centre Alliance senator, about his attitude to the government’s personal income tax cuts. The Centre Alliance has two Senate votes. Griff and his colleague Rex Patrick are on board for the tax relief for low and middle income earners, and the bracket creep initiatives, but the two are reserving their position on the flattening of the tax scales, which is phase three of the reforms. Griff tells me they will do their own modelling on the implications of dumping the 37% tax bracket.
He’s perplexed about why low and middle income earners have to wait for 15 months for tax relief rather than getting it now, but says he won’t seek to change the timing. “We don’t have an issue with the proposal, it’s valid, but if you want to give people relief, don’t give them a carrot 15 months down the track”.
Griff also thinks there can be a vote on the measure by 1 July, as Scott Morrison wants.
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The Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak has conceded defeat in that country’s election. Which came as a shock for a lot of people, despite his implication in the 1MDB scandal, which is explained here:
Much of the criticism of Najib has been focused on his role in the huge 1MDB scandal, where $2.6bn from a government fund he was overseeing was embezzled and spent around the world and $681m of it was alleged to have ended up in his personal bank account.”
Tony Abbott however, says Australia will miss him, even if his own people don’t (right now)
PM Najib Razak was a good friend of Australia and a voice of decency and common sense at international gatherings. On the big questions he got much right and his time in government saw strong and effective cooperation between our countries.
— Tony Abbott (@TonyAbbottMHR) May 10, 2018
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Australia has a new man in Dubai:
From Julie Bishop and Steve Ciobo’s statement:
We are pleased to announce the appointment of Ian Halliday as Australia’s consul general and senior trade commissioner in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, our largest investment partner in the Middle East.
As the UAE continues to diversify its economy away from crude oil and traditional commodities, opportunities are opening for Australian suppliers of goods and services in education, sustainable energy, food and beverage services and infrastructure.
Australia’s connections are strong with the UAE and growing. Almost 25,000 Australians live in the UAE, 350 Australian companies are represented and more than 130 flights a week connect the two countries.
Prior to this appointment, Mr Halliday was managing director of Dairy Australia. He has had over 20 years’ experience as a leader in the private sector, holding senior posts with Castlemaine Foods, Kraft Foods, and Kailis & France Foods (now Vesco Foods).
His experience in the commercial food and agribusiness sector in Asia and the Middle East will benefit our exporters looking to the Middle East to expand their businesses, and assist foreign investors to identify opportunities in Australia.
Mr Halliday’s appointment reflects the Turnbull government’s strong commitment to growing Australia’s trade with the UAE.
We thank outgoing consul general and senior trade commissioner Gerard Seeber for his contributions to advancing Australia’s interests in the UAE since January 2012.
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In between Ray Hadley’s/Peter Dutton’s fantasies, Barnaby Joyce’s savaging of cuisines and Pauline Hanson’s interview, the Nationals said some things.
You’ll find that here:
LIVE: All @The_Nationals press conference at Parliament House: https://t.co/vOvfSG22E1
— Michael McCormack MP (@M_McCormackMP) May 10, 2018
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It's official - Peter Dutton is now responsible for Asio
From the statement:
Today the governor-general put in place the final piece of the Home Affairs portfolio with the transfer of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (Asio) into the Department.
Asio’s transfer follows yesterday’s passage of the Home Affairs and Integrity Agencies Legislation Amendment Act 2018.
The minister for home affairs Peter Dutton welcomed the transfer of Asio saying it delivers on the Turnbull Government’s intent to bring together the management and coordination of our nation’s national security, intelligence and emergency management agencies.
“We are now leveraging the very best of our agencies to ensure that the Home Affairs whole is greater than the sum of its parts,” Mr Dutton said.
“Our agencies are among the best in the world and are focused on building a united, secure and prosperous country for all Australians.”
The Home Affairs portfolio draws together the nation’s security and policing agencies and will provide the closest possible coordination between Asio, the Australian Border Force, the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission, the Australian Federal Police, and the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre to ensure a safer and more secure Australia.
“Our first priority is the safety and security of all Australians – and this is what we are delivering. These new arrangements enhance the government’s ability to respond to emerging threats including from terrorism, organised crime and foreign interference,” Mr Dutton said.
The Home Affairs and Integrity Agencies Legislation Amendment Act 2018 also provides the attorney-general strengthened oversight of our intelligence, security and law enforcement agencies.
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Tanya Plibersek has released Labor’s women’s budget statement. You’ll find the whole thing here:
The member for Sydney is not impressed with the government’s effort (in other news, today is a day ending in Y):
After five years in government, the Liberals suggest they might do something about women’s economic security – but this year’s budget doesn’t say what, or whether there is funding for it. Why don’t they know?
The truth is that the Liberals have taken no serious action on gender equality, and they never will.
After Tony Abbott scrapped the statement in 2014, Kelly O’Dwyer managed to get it back into this year’s budget. There wasn’t a whole heap of detail, but we are told that is coming in September, when O’Dwyer will make a women’s economic security statement. (FWIW, Labor continued to release its women’s budget statement from opposition despite the decision from the government to axe it.)
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One Nation has named Matthew Stephen as their candidate in the Longman byelection.
Stephen ran for the seat of Sandgate in the last state election, where, the Australian revealed, he had only just avoided bankruptcy and had his trades licence temporarily suspended seven times for not paying fees or creditors.
From the Australian’s October 24 report:
Matthew Stephen, 30, had his Queensland Building and Construction Commission wall and floor tiling licence temporarily suspended seven times for not paying his fees and creditors. His most recent suspension was for February and March, while Pauline Hanson’s party was vetting his suitability to run at the next Queensland election.
One Nation campaign director Michael Pucci said One Nation had backed Mr Stephen because he was so open about his past financial problems.
“He was forthright, and the bottom line is he’s exactly what we’re talking about when we have people representing people,” Mr Pucci said. “He’s running a real business and he’s faced the real problems of everyday Aussies. He didn’t run away from it, that’s why he got the tick.”
Mr Stephen said his business was now recovering from his past troubles, after it had gone from employing 25 staff to just two – him and his foreman. Now, it employs seven full-time staff and an apprentice.
Stephen had been open with One Nation at the time about his difficulties. This time round, Pauline Hanson says:
Matthew is a strong local candidate, a fourth-generation Australian, who lives and works in the community with his wife and family. I’m very proud to say he is ready to fight for the people of Longman and I think he would make an excellent member of parliament.
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We’ve noticed Peter Dutton and Ray Hadley sometimes touch down on the subject of Labor frontbencher Andrew Leigh. This morning they revisited the subject of periodic fascination.
After playing a grab of Leigh defending Labor MPs who resigned yesterday, Dutton replied:
Ah, Ray, just hearing him talk, closing my eyes I can see him walking around in a robe, you know, like some Greek god, and he just gets weirder and weirder.
Hadley:
Hang on, I know you have a vivid imagination, but I can’t in any circumstance close my eyes and think of Andrew Leigh in a robe as a Greek god. As a wanker, yes, but not as a Greek god.
WEIRDER AND WEIRDER.
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Speaking of totally normal cuppas, Bill Shorten had one of his own this morning:
The new Tarantino flick looks a little odd:
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Malcolm Turnbull had a few things to say about that totally normal cuppa he had with a group of seniors earlier this morning:
But I tell you one thing they are very concerned about – and that is Bill Shorten’s plan to grab their savings. Shorten’s cash-grab on retirees’ savings, his grab for those franking credits is going to cost those people around the table there an enormous amount.
The lady I was sitting next to said it was going to cost her about 28% of her income. That is a massive grab! This is a $5bn a year tax grab that Bill Shorten is proposing in total over 10 years – a $56bn tax grab, part of his $200bn worth of taxes he wants to grab and what that is going to do is hit some very vulnerable Australians who have done the right thing and saved all their lives.
So when Shorten stands up tonight and talks about his plan for the budget, he’s got to explain how ripping $200bn-plus in additional tax out of the Australian economy is not going to do anything other than inflict real hardship on hardworking Australians who saved all their lives. Discourage businesses from investing, discourage businesses from employing and set our strong economy going backwards.
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Economic modellers have had a couple of days to think about the 2018 budget and they’re starting to tell us how they think it will affect different types of families.
Two of the most respect budget modellers – Natsem and ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods – say the tax changes in the budget will benefit the highest wage earners most.
1. University of Canberra’s National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (Natsem) found this: “Highest wage earners will benefit most from the 2018 federal budget.”
Natsem’s modelling shows a two-parent family with both parents earning $100,000 and two school-aged children will be $1,022 better off in 2018-19 compared with 2017-18. This will increase to $4,280 by 2024-25.
Low-middle income earners are set to benefit from handouts of up to $530 starting next financial year, meaning a lone-parent family earning $70,000 per year and with two children will be $757 better off in 2018-19 and $3,486 better off by 2024-25 thanks to indexing of FTB-A and FTB-B.
2. ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods found this: “Most of the reductions in tax are directed towards the top two income quintiles.
“The targeting of the tax cuts more strongly favours higher income households over lower income households where the cuts are much more modest (both in dollar and percentage terms). However, it is important to remember that average tax rates of middle to higher income households are still projected to increase over the next decade.”
Its model found by 2027, a couple with two children earning more than $130,000 a year will be saving close to $8000. At the same time, a low income couple with two children will save just $203.
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Speaking to Sky, Pauline Hanson answers Samantha Maiden’s question on linking income tax cut support to the migration rate (“You’ve had a look at the income tax cuts and you want the government in the context of that to have a look at the immigration level – how?”) with an “Oh, definitely”.
She continues:
They have based their whole budget on immigration and productivity. The higher immigration figures, that means the DDP [GDP] per person coming into the country, as they are saying, they are going to contribute to the country.
The fact is, it doesn’t. Because we can’t provide the infrastructure, the hospitals, the schools, the roads. We can see what is happening in our cities. So the government brings it for it to balance the GDP out and says it is productivity. But then everything is handed to the states, to provide the services. And they can’t cope.
So what I am saying to the government is it is not realistic what they are saying. And it is not – the whole budget is a house of cards that could possibly fall.
Right.
The adding that “they have built the whole budget around immigration”, and she wants it capped “around 75,000 people a year”.
We are the highest growing country in the world, with 1.6% increase and that’s double than a lot of other countries. We need to reign it back in because we haven’t got the money to provide for the infrastructure projects and people are screaming. When you actually hear from about 54 to 60% of the Australian populace want a reduction in immigration, but the government and the Labor [party] are not listening. They are basing their whole economic policy based on immigration numbers coming into the country. They are not the ones queuing to see the doctor, or queuing for housing, or the cost of housing rising. It is an impact on people’s lifestyle.
Maiden then asks whether that means One Nation won’t support the tax plan, unless the government makes some movement in the immigration space.
Hanson:
We will support the first stage and the second stage.
They actually haven’t been upfront with people in the first stage. They are talking about every Australian is going to benefit by $530 a year with this (the government has said earners between $41,000 and $90,000 will receive the full tax offset).
... That $530 a year is only if you have a liability. So if you have paid your taxes over the year and the department doesn’t owe you money, you are not going to get a cut. It is only if the government owes you money that you are, you know, be any better off.
Yes. Because it is a tax offset payment.
She confirms One Nation will support stage one of the plan (the $530 tax offset) and stage two (moving the threshold from $87,000 to $90,000 and in 2022 moving it again from $90,000 to $120,000)
Then she says:
Australians, and I know, I am talking to Australians every day. The cost of living is escalating. Wages are not real increase in wages. They want relief. And I can understand that. I really do. But are we really addressing the blackhole in the budget that we have? No, we are not. The government is not addressing. They are bringing in revenue from other areas to actually support these cuts in a big way. You know, he is only talking about a $2.2bn surplus by 2019-20. If China falls over and the trade there and we have problems with China, that is actually going to affect our budget.
So step one – the offset, that is a yes. But then she says:
They’re saying they don’t know how many people are actually going to get it (the government says just over four million people will be eligible for it) but people believe they are actually going to get that money back from the taxation department at the end of the year. But they’re not.
If the government owes you a debt, if the government owes you money, then you’ll get that $530 back. But if you don’t have a debt, you are not going to get a recovery back off that. So it is deceiving ... what the government has allowed people to believe is going to happen. They think they are all going to get that $530 a back. That is not the case at all.
Except it is called a tax OFFSET. In that it offsets your tax.
But once again, step one and step two get the tick of support from One Nation. So bringing it back to what sparked the interest in this interview in the first place – Hanson saying she wanted to link support for the bill to the migration rate, we come full circle to this:
Do you think they are going to give it to me? Because I tell you what, they reduce the numbers in immigration by bringing it down only by 0.2 of a per cent is going to throw the whole economic budget figures.
So will she link support for the tax cuts to immigration? To which she answered “oh, definitely” just seven (very, very long) minutes ago?
No one else is going to support this. You have all the political parties, everyone agreeing with these tax cuts, right? So I can’t deny Australians there. If the majority there in the Senate support this ... (but what will you get for your support?)
Because the tax cuts for ordinary Australians who need this break, but I believe that we should have better economic management from getting the revenues that we need from the gasfields. We are not getting the money we need from our resources. This is what I am talking about.
If there is anyone, anyone at all who can make sense of that, please let me know.
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Back to Mathias Cormann:
Whatever promises Bill Shorten gives today, whatever rolled gold guarantee he gives to the Australian people, the Australian people know, that whatever promises Bill Shorten makes today, whatever rolled gold guarantees Bill Shorten provides them in his speech tonight, they cannot be trusted.
And on the (three separate) modelling which has found that most of the tax cuts will go to high income earners?
We are providing income tax relief to encourage and reward hardworking Australians and we are prioritising low and middle income earners over the first four years – overwhelmingly of course. The income tax relief we are providing in our budget is going to low and middle income earners and we call on Bill Shorten to back the plan in full.
Which it is - over the first four years. But beyond that - well, higher income earners will be quite happy.
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Bob Katter was just on Sky News, which just reminded me to check if anyone in north Queensland had been torn apart by a crocodile since February.
No one has.
Let a thousand blossoms bloom.
I’ll come back to both Mathias Cormann and Pauline Hanson in just a moment, but I was just working my way through Barnaby Joyce’s Sky interview, where he became the prime example for how anglos RUIN food.
The man who once posed with a tea towel draped behind his neck like a prizefighter mulling over the meaning of life, now says he does “all the cooking, I do the washing, hang things out”, when he is at home.
And his specialty? RUINING food.
“... The regular roast that becomes curries that become risotto.”
And then he just works his way down. To what? Roast curry rice pudding?
(Yes, I too use leftovers. But curries to risotto? You know what a roast becomes? Sandwiches. Or cold roast)
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The home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, has got stuck into Bill Shorten about his interpretation of high court decisions on the “reasonable steps” test. Dutton told 2GB radio:
He lied to the Australian people yesterday. I watched that press conference with Bill Shorten and I saw him look down the barrel of a camera and he blatantly lied, there’s no question about it. I think Mr Shorten has a credibility problem
... Yesterday I think people really saw Bill Shorten exposed and he essentially said absolutely something that wasn’t true, and he knew it not to be true. The high court only confirmed what they’d found in the Canavan case in the Gallagher case yesterday.
For Mr Shorten to pretend otherwise, I was really quite shocked by it.
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Pauline Hanson will (maybe) support the government’s tax plan (maybe) if the government cuts migration.
She wants the migration rate cut from the 190,000 ceiling to 75,000. She says it’s because cities can’t cope with population growth, and the states don’t have the money to build the necessary infrastructure.
Hanson also mentions that people who don’t support her call are not the ones who are having to “line up to see the doctor”.
She fails to mention that one of the reasons we line up to see doctors, particularly in regional and rural areas, is because we, as a country, don’t have enough doctors coming out of our medical schools, WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE HAVE A MIGRATION PROGRAM.
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I told you he was out and about - Mike Bowers spotted in his natural habitat:
Spotting a wild @MathiasCormann moving through the forest of the Senate courtyard, @mpbowers takes a shot pic.twitter.com/Rfuyu16cyz
— James Jeffrey (@James_Jeffrey) May 10, 2018
Candidates are being announced:
Greens have just announced their Perth byelection candidate is Caroline Perks #auspol https://t.co/KiTuQWpdlJ
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) May 10, 2018
While Mathias Cormann is still talking, his office has released a statement doubling down on his main points:
Tonight, Bill Shorten needs to get serious about building a stronger economy.
Bill Shorten does not have a single policy to strengthen our economy and create jobs. Labor only has a series of tax grabs.
Labor needs to drop their over $200bn of higher taxes – on electricity, small and family business, incomes, housing, investment and retirees. Because Labor’s $200bn of tax grabs will hurt our economy, hurt families and cost jobs.
Labor needs to reverse their plan to increase tax for small and medium businesses. They need to back our entire plan for income tax relief to encourage and reward working Australians.
Bracket creep reduces the rewards for effort, undermines the returns to quality education, and blunts the incentive to work hard, take risks and succeed. Our plan also delivers a tax system that encourages aspirational Australians to get ahead, to take on additional work and keep more of their extra income.
Labor needs to own up to the fact that when Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen were last in government they left behind a weakening economy, rising unemployment and a rapidly deteriorating budget position.
Their anti-growth and anti-jobs agenda now would take Australia back to where Labor left off in 2013.
Labor has not delivered a surplus since 1989. They need to show how they will keep spending under control, because Australia can’t afford Labor’s economic mismanagement.
We are turning the corner on Labor’s debt and deficit disaster. We have a plan to return the budget to a modest balance by 2019-20, increasing to projected surpluses in 2020-21 and 2021-22. We are no longer borrowing to fund recurrent expenditure.
Sigh. We are in for months and months and months of this. From all sides. And then the byelections will end, but we’ll be very much in general election campaign mode by then, so we’ll be bombarded with even more. Essentially – electioneering is coming.
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Mathias Cormann has just given a “rolled gold guarantee” that the Coalition has no more problems with dual citizens.
That’s because questions over Jason Falinski in particular won’t go away. He has updated his register with the advice saying he is not and never was a Polish citizen, but Labor is still pursuing for him to be referred to the high court and for the full bench to work it out. (Polish citizenship law is one of those complicated ones.)
Cormann and others within the government have seized on Bill Shorten’s “rolled gold guarantee” that Labor had no problems with citizenship, because of its vetting processes, which was made during a Today interview last year, when he was asked if he could give a “rolled gold guarantee” and he answered “yes”.
Just your reminder that rolled gold is actually very cheap – it’s when silver or other medals are rolled in gold to increase their value. But as anyone who has bought a gold-plated or gold-filled piece of jewellery knows, it rubs off.
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Greg Jericho has had a look at the government’s tax plan - you’ll find his whole analysis here, but here’s a short take:
In 2015-16 the roughly 400,000 people who had incomes between $156,500 and $241,000 paid an average 32.6% tax on their income for a total of $24.7bn. Dropping that average tax rate to 29.5% would see a drop of $2.4bn in tax revenue – that’s around a quarter of the cost of Newstart each year. Add in cuts from the other two million or so people earning over $90,000 and you are talking big money – every year.
And it’s why the prime minister and treasurer have refused to say how much it will cost, and are sticking with the “$140bn over 10 years” line – but refusing to explain what is included in that figure, let alone breaking it down to individual items.
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Barnaby Joyce is very much enjoying Labor’s dual citizenship misfortunes. Here’s Joyce telling Sky of his time waiting for the high court decision that ultimately found he was ineligible to sit in parliament as a dual citizen.
Then they [Labor] would move that the member be no longer heard, then they would have a vote, then they would make a baaa-ing [sheep] noises and they thought it was a great joke, they were absolutely ridiculing me.
It was puerile, but it showed the hypocrisy of the Labor party, because as we were going through this, we were saying, ‘surely there are people on your own side in the same position’. But oh no, he [Bill Shorten] came out and said, ‘oh no, we are as pure as the driven snow, nothing to see here’. They must feel like complete and utter hypocrites.
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Lyle Shelton, Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives spokesman in Queensland, has started today with an attack on Pauline Hanson and One Nation. Here’s Shelton’s press release:
One Nation’s decision to side with Labor and popularist Senate cross-benchers to block the government’s plan to reward effort through the tax system is disappointing for conservative Queenslanders.
Australian Conservatives spokesman Lyle Shelton said today’s move by Pauline Hanson to block Scott Morrison’s legislation to flatten the tax system brings into focus the choice conservative alternative party voters have at the next federal election.
‘Voters are right to retain their scepticism of the major parties, but in choosing third-party insurance in the Senate they should consider the principles their minor party of choice stands for.
‘Australian Conservatives exists to make conservative politics better after years of failure. We do this by taking a principled stand and rewarding conservative policy when it is offered,’ Mr Shelton said.
‘One Nation’s position on tax has flipped and flopped all year. First they opposed the company tax cuts and now they support them.
‘Today they are working with Labor and the Greens to block reform that would reward aspiration. What will their policy be tomorrow?’
Mr Shelton said Australian Conservatives would pitch to voters looking for candidates who would stand for conservative principles, rather than simply articulating grievance.
It’s so sad when you used to have mad love, but then you have bad blood.
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Looks like Mathias Cormann is being sent out on the theory that the best defence is a good offence, ahead of Labor’s budget-in-reply. He is holding a press conference in the next 10 minutes.
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The government’s insistence on putting its tax plan together as one whole package has emerged as the biggest budget disagreement so far.
Labor says it wants more detail on the tax plan before making a decision on whether or not it will support it*.
Penny Wong:
The government has put up a bill as a political tactic. Malcolm is saying you have got to vote on a bill now that is predicated on me winning an election twice. So, he wants people to vote on a bill that assumes he’s going to be here in six years’ time.
The crossbench – I saw Senator Martin, Senator Storer, Senator Hinch rightly say, ‘what’s the rush?’ and ‘tell us what it costs’. Because let’s remember, Malcolm Turnbull still hasn’t told people what his big tranche of tax cuts down the track costs and I think Australians, and the Senate, are entitled to know that.”
*An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated Labor would not support part 2 and 3. I’m told the party is still making up its mind.
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Anyone would think there were two byelections about to occur in Western Australia with the way Labor’s Matt Keogh was talking this morning:
Malcolm Turnbull came over to WA only a couple of weeks ago showering WA with largess. ‘Billions of dollars,’ he said, but what did we discover on Tuesday night? Really all of that money was already hiding in the federal budget. Scott Morrison did some budget fudgery moved some dollars around and presto there it is, but actually very few new dollars for Western Australia at all.
In fact less than $200m in GST top up. Meanwhile, the Shorten Labor team have committed to Western Australia a $1.6bn GST fair share fund for WA. If Malcolm Turnbull really believed in this budget, if he really thought that it was in the best interests of not just Australians but Western Australians, he would be putting candidates up in these byelections.
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The national redress scheme for institutional child sexual abuse legislation has officially been introduced into the parliament by Dan Tehan.
Legislation introduced for National Redress Scheme for survivors of institutional child sexual abuse @DanTehanWannon #auspol pic.twitter.com/z5GIVPtbi3
— Political Alert (@political_alert) May 10, 2018
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Labor frontbencher Mark Dreyfus was on ABC radio, speaking all things byelections and preselection processes, after the high court tightened the reasonable steps responsibilities yesterday:
Well certainly all the constitutional experts have made clear over the last 24 hours, it’s going to change preselection processes. They’re going to have to be dragged right back because people will have to put in train getting rid of any dual citizenship issues much earlier and for some countries that can take a very very long time.
Even [in] Britain, the average time is around four months. There are countries in the world which take years to do this. The concern that’s been expressed by a lot of experts is that this disadvantages millions of Australians who are dual citizens or may be dual citizens and that’s why there is talk about a referendum.
Basically, anyone thinking of ever entering politics, who holds dual citizenship, should probably divest themselves of their foreign citizenship now.
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Speaking of Sky, independent senator Tim Storer just had a chat to Samantha Maiden, and said that while he supports phase one of the government’s tax plan – the $530 tax offset – he is not overly comfortable with the other steps: the abolition of the 37% tax bracket and the flat rate for earners between $41,000 and $200,000.
“If all of the package is together, it is not appropriate and I will not support it,” he said.
Given Storer’s examination of the company tax cuts, I really can’t see him voting for something that doesn’t have numbers attached to it, which the $140bn plan doesn’t. While it is set in the never-never, it doesn’t lay out how much the year-on-year cost would be. So we don’t know how much of that $140bn is going to come out of revenue in year five, six, seven, etc. That’s a problem for a lot of people.
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Tanya Plibersek has also apologised, telling Sky “it’s not good, we are very sorry that people have to go through these byelections”.
Deputy Opposition Leader @tanya_plibersek: I think the new citizenship interpretation means politicians will need to reassess the judgement they've made in the past.
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) May 9, 2018
MORE: https://t.co/jeOwW3rMHC #FirstEdition pic.twitter.com/bbBpk9aXti
Tony Burke also had a chat to the ABC this morning. After Bill Shorten was criticised for not apologising yesterday for the cost and inconvenience of the additional high court case and byelections, Burke was the first to say sorry:
Oh, I do have to say, obviously we’re really sorry it has turned out this way. We didn’t want there to be the inconvenience to the public or the costs that’s involved in byelections and if we had any way of knowing that what had been thought to be a settled approach was wrong, then we, you know, we would have had different systems in place before the election and we’ll have different systems in place now.
In terms of the byelections themselves, though, you know, we are there absolutely for a fight, focusing on a government that keeps wanting to deliver for the top end of town. And, you know, yesterday in question time, I think said it all.
They won’t even tell us how many the big business tax cut now costs. They won’t tell us how much the income tax cut beyond the first part of the announcement – which is the bit everybody supports – they won’t tell us how much the rest of it costs, but want to, year-by-year they want us to vote for it anyway.
The budget papers put $11m on the cost of the high court cases in the last financial year.
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Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, just having a casual cuppa with seniors in Queanbeyan this morning.
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And here is where the battle lines will be drawn – what the government wants to happen in seven years’ time. Malcolm Turnbull:
Well, we have a very progressive tax system and people on higher incomes pay more tax than people on lower incomes, in fact a lot more tax. Let me give you an example: so after our reforms are fully in place, you know, someone earning $200,000 will pay 12.5 times more income tax than someone on $41,000.
Someone earning $200,000 will have an average tax rate of more than 30%. So average all of their income, someone on $31,000 will have an average tax rate of 11%.The personal income tax total collections are paid by the few, not the many and that will remain the same.
So, if you regard the high income earners as the people in the top tax, which is 45c in the dollar plus the 2c for the Medicare levy – 47c, that’s a high marginal rate.
... We are saying in seven years’ time, that should be increased to $200,000 to take into account, inflation and otherwise. You’re going to have school principals and police superintendents, many people you would not regard as being multimillionaires or billionaires coming into the top marginal rate.
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And now everything tax, tax, tax is also all things byelection. Malcolm Turnbull:
Well, byelections are always tough for the government, for an incumbent government whatever political stripe, but we will see.
Obviously this is going to be a very big test for Bill Shorten. He asserted that his party’s vetting processes were rolled gold, even after the high court made it very clear in the Canavan decision last year that the position of the labor MPs in the House of Representatives was untenable.
They made it very clear, he insisted that they were OK. They did not resign. He took no responsibility for their position. Of clear ineligibility and then the high court simply reconfirmed in the Gallagher case yesterday what they said in the Canavan case in October.
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Malcolm Turnbull was on ABC radio earlier this morning, and it was all about tax, tax, tax.
This is Australians’ money. You see this is the big difference between our approach and Bill Shorten’s approach. Bill Shorten regards a reduction in tax as a giveaway by the government. He thinks that the money that Australians earn belongs to the government and that it is the government that allows them to keep whatever is not grabbed in tax. He wants to go after pensioners savings, he wants to go after, he wants to increase tax on small businesses, he wants to go after trusts, he wants to go after one target after another – $200bn of additional taxes.
What we’re saying is that hardworking Australian families, particularly middle income Australian families deserve to keep more of the money they earn. It is their money. That’s why they are getting, they’re getting support in the first stage. They’re getting the support in the first stage and then as the tax reform rolls out, we’re going to to get to the point, what a huge reform, 94% of Australians will know that if they go out and earn an extra dollar, they won’t pay more than 32.5c in the dollar. That’s a huge reform.
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Good morning and welcome to budget-in-reply day
After yesterday became all about the high court ruling, and then the resulting resignations, and then the byelections, the budget was shoved to the side and forgotten.
But not today. Today it is back, front and centre, with both the Coalition and Labor using it to spearhead their campaigns ahead of the coming super Saturday. The five byelections – in Longman, Braddon, Fremantle, Perth and Mayo – are being billed as a test of leadership for both Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull.
So suddenly the lines drawn over the budget have become all important – and the government’s not-totally-explained $140bn tax reform plan is at the centre of it.
The government has given its four-year figure - $13.4bn. And a 10-year figure - $140bn. But it won’t give a year-by-year figure. Probably because as the higher income tax cuts come in, the foregone revenue figure will shoot through the roof. And no one in the government wants those numbers in the public arena.
We’ll be covering the budget-in-reply speech later tonight – and all the day’s events in between.
Mike Bowers is, as usual, out and about with his camera. You can follow his day at @mikepbowers and @mpbowers. You’ll find me in the comment section, but also @amyremeikis and @pyjamapolitics, where you’ll find some behind-the-scenes shenanigans.
It is going to be a loooooooong day, so I hope you have had your morning pick-me-up.
Ready to go?
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