I’ll now be leaving this blog to rest, and will direct you over to our official Budget coverage with Katharine Murphy, who we’ve all missed while she’s been in lock up (of the journalistic budget day variety).
Two last things before I go.
The latest Essential Poll, reported earlier, also found Labor maintains a 52-48 two party-preferred lead over the Coalition.
Also, student snapper James Mott has been learning the craft from ‘Magic Mike’ Bowers on a very exciting day in Canberra preparing for the budget. Here’s his excellent snap of Philip Ruddock’s valedictory.
Updated
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander services have seen their fair share of cuts over recent years, including more half a billion dollars over five years taken by the 2014 Budget. That hugely reduced funding was then redistributed through the Indigenous Advancement Strategy (IAS) a policy since panned by a senate inquiry as chaotic and poorly executed after largely unanimous dissatisfaction.
I think it’s an understatement to say people will be wondering what tonight will offer.
The Close the Gap Campaign steering committee has called on Government to reinstate the $534.4million.
It also wants action on the following:
- Fund the Implementation Plan for the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Plan 2013-2023
- Provide better support for Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services
- Launch a Senate Inquiry into institutional racism in the health system (particularly in hospitals)
- Primary Health Networks (PHNs), guidelines for which don’t currently provide any detail on how they will work with existing Aboriginal Medical Services
- Create disability Ttargets and service support alongside the NDIS
- Reverse funding cuts to advocacy services
The House of Representatives has been suspended until the treasurer delivers the budget at 7:30pm.
In the Senate, a flurry of committee reports have been tabled in the last hour. I’ve been looking for hidden nasties being quietly dumped while the nation’s finest are in the budget lock-up.
But mostly it looks like the work of Labor and Greens majority committees winding up in preparation for a 2 July double dissolution election being called before 11 May.
The committee scrutinising government budget cuts has called for CSIRO to delay implementing job cuts until after the election and a review of a proposed restructure. It called for the auditor general to investigate use of private emails by CSIRO staff to discuss job cuts.
The committee considering a national integrity commission has recommended further study of anti-corruption mechanisms. It noted a federal anti-corruption body would not be mutually exclusive with the current agencies which tackled wrongdoing like criminal conduct.
Updated
A quick look back at Dutton’s pre-budget announcement that 17 detention centres would close under the coalition government. He has in recent days trumpeted 13 already being shut.
A lot of people are trying to figure out which 17 the minister is referring to.
Only 10 are listed on the department website. If you have any clues, please feel free to get in touch. The never-to-be-sourced Wikipedia has 17 listed as open but this includes residential accommodation and the two offshore processing centres on Nauru and Manus.
If Dutton did mean to include Nauru (as PNG has already announced Manus will shut) then he did bury the lead somewhat.
Updated
Poll: Majority back Labor ETS
The latest Essential poll has asked voters what they think of Labor’s policy to introduce an emissions trading scheme and increase Australia’s carbon emission reduction target to 45% by 2030 (instead of 26-28%, the current target).
The poll found 57% approve and 21% disapprove. Evidently excluding the bogey words “carbon tax” (or even “carbon price”) can work wonders for support for action on climate change, but it is interesting that Australians support tougher targets.
But in bad news for Labor the respondents were also fans of negative gearing: 43% were in favour and 36% disapproved.
My colleague Paul Karp’s news story on this is here.
Updated
Yesterday morning what appears to be an asylum seeker boat arrived in the Australian territory of Cocos Keeling Islands.
First reported by ABC’s Hack program, we’ve since independently verified the news, and according to people on the tiny collection of islands in the Indian Ocean, a boat did indeed make it there without being intercepted by customs or other Australian officials.
Peter Dutton, the only person in authority with permission to publicly comment on this, is yet to respond.
It’s not yet known what has happened to the passengers, believed to be from Sri Lanka.
Hello everyone, Helen Davidson here to hold the fort. I hope you are still buckled up for what has been quite the news day already.
You may remember a little while ago when the former member for Indi, Sophie Mirabella, let slip she’d had a $10m commitment for the Wangaratta hospital, but the money never came through because – I’m paraphrasing here – voters had the nerve to install Cathy McGowan instead of her.
This just in from my colleague in Canberra Paul Karp:
The Senate has passed a motion demanding the government provide documents relating to withdrawal of the $10m from Wangaratta hospital.
Mirabella had attempted to clarify her comment by saying she was a better advocate for funding than McGowan, but never withdrew her statement that she had received a commitment for the funds.
A short time ago the Senate passed a Greens’ motion calling on the government to produce by 3pm on Wednesday “all documents created between October 2013 and May 2016 relating to the funding of hospitals in regional Victoria, and, in particular, the funding of Wangaratta hospital, including the withdrawal of $10 million, and any commitments made to the former member for Indi [Mrs Mirabella] in relation to such funds”.
Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said withdrawal of $10m of health funding “smacks of blackmail and payback”.
“People should get health care on the basis of need, not pork barrelling and promises to shore up marginal seats,” he said.
“In the absence of a national anti-corruption watchdog the Greens will get to the bottom of this by compelling the government to produce the relevant documents.”
Updated
Summary
Melissa Davey here handing the blog over to my colleague Helen Davidson to take you into the evening, before our Canberra federal political team emerges from the lock-up in about three hours to take you through the night.
To recap the afternoon’s events:
- The RBA cut the cash rate by 0.25% to a record low of 1.75%, flagging concerns about the state of the economy on the same day Morrison is set to deliver his federal budget.
- The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, used question time to reiterate his comments earlier today that refugee advocates are encouraging asylum seekers to self-harm.
- The prime minister has been grilled in question time about his tax cuts for high-income earners, and has hit back by criticising a “black hole” in Labor’s tobacco excise plans.
- The “father of the house”, Philip Ruddock, delivered a marathon one-hour valedictory speech to parliament.
Stay with us.
Updated
The “father of the house”, Philip Ruddock, delivered a marathon one-hour valedictory speech after question time today, to cap off his 42 years, seven months, 11 days in parliament.
In a gracious speech that dealt more with others’ contribution to the work of Australian democracy and multiculturalism than his own, Ruddock spoke of his debt to his father, who served 14 years in parliament before he died.
Ruddock also paid tribute to his former chief of staff, Andrew Metcalfe, for his career of public service and said he “regretted very much” the way in which it came to an end. Metcalfe was secretary of the agriculture, fisheries and forestry department but was sacked by the incoming Abbott government in September 2013.
Speaking on the values of multiculturalism, Ruddock said he had found Australians with exemplary values of all different faiths. He spoke of his links to the Vietnamese, Chinese and Armenian communities.
“I do have an intense interests in human rights questions.”
He recounted work on opposing the death penalty, and foreshadowed a further announcement on the death penalty before parliament rises.
Speaking on immigration matters, Ruddock said: “If we do not manage our borders, we cannot manage an immigration program in the national interest.” He was proud the immigration program was supported by the Australian community.
Ruddock recounted crossing the floor in 1988 on a controversial motion to vote with Labor in favour of not discriminating on the basis of race in immigration, and how he thought it had ended his career.
Earlier on Tuesday in the joint Coalition party room, Malcolm Turnbull praised Ruddock by saying: “The fact that Australia has the most successful multicultural society in the world is the work of millions, but of all those millions no one has done more than Ruddock.”
Putting the final touches on my valedictory #auspol pic.twitter.com/0fGPK7nDgy
— Philip Ruddock (@philipruddockmp) May 3, 2016
Updated
Guardian political reporter Paul Karp has filed on the RBA cut to the cash rate by 0.25% to a record low of 1.75%, which he writes flags concerns about the state of the economy on the same day Morrison is set to deliver the federal budget:
The RBA’s statement cited falling inflation, the rising dollar, ‘mixed’ signals on the strength of the labour market and better regulation of mortgages as the reasons behind the cut, which sent the Australian dollar crashing and caught some traders by surprise.
Figures last week showed annual inflation was down 0.2% to 1.3%, well below the RBA’s 2%-3% target range.
NAB immediately announced it would pass on the rate cut in full by reducing its variable home loan rate from 5.60% to 5.35%, putting pressure on its three big rivals to follow suit.
Full piece here.
Updated
In all the fun and games of question time I neglected to include this little analogy from Christopher Pyne. Being the minister for science, he thought it apt to weigh in on Labor’s alleged budget black hole with this extended analogy:
Dr Lisa Harvey-Smith, an astronomer at the CSIRO, discovered a super massive black hole in a galaxy far, far away, Mr Speaker, weighing in at 3.89 billion solar masses.
As Dr Harvey-Smith observed, and I quote, ‘The black hole at the centre of our galaxy is only four million solar masses. So this one is a monster in comparison.’
Well, I’ve got news for Dr Harvey-Smith. If she thinks that’s a monster, she should take a look at Labor’s black hole, Mr Speaker.
To recap the news from the RBA:
- The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low of 1.75%
- Its governor, Glenn Stevens, cited concerns about falling inflation, a weakening labour market and the rising dollar
- The dollar fell more than US1c
- Shares fared better with the ASX200 up nearly 2%
- NAB said it would pass the cut on to its borrowers immediately
- A cooler housing market had also given scope for more easing
A news report on the cut from Guardian Australia federal political reporter Paul Karp will be up on the website shortly.
Updated
Researchers, doctors, and other public health types are using the hashtag #healthbudget16 on Twitter to discuss their budget wish-lists and predictions.
#healthbudget16 hopes: disparities, ATSI health, MH reforms, PHC research, prevention, HiAP. #notholdingmybreath pic.twitter.com/8xSxfQ3u6Q
— Lesley Russell Wolpe (@LRussellWolpe) April 27, 2016
A health policy analyst and consultant, Jennifer Doggett, has written for Croakey that it was always going to be a difficult budget for Turnbull with challenges on both political and health policy fronts. She writes:
The prime minister has inherited the fall-out from the ‘slash and burn’ 2014-15 budget which destroyed a number of health organisations and programs which could have assisted him in achieving policy gains in this area.
In addition, the government is having a particularly bad PR moment in the health sector, facing ongoing negative campaigns from a number of key groups including those representing pathology companies, GPs and medical specialists over the failure to increase Medicare rebates.
It is also currently caught in the crossfire of a stoush between private health funds and medical technology companies over prostheses funding.”
Full piece here.
Updated
Meanwhile, there’s been quite the social media backlash against a request from Dutton’s staff to a Fairfax reporter to remove an unflattering photo of him from her Twitter feed.
A reminder of the pic:
Peter Dutton wants this photo deleted, so please delete it ASAP!
— Dave Donovan (@davrosz) May 3, 2016
I'll just pin it here so you know which one it is. pic.twitter.com/n05I34bD2o
Hannibal Lecter comparisons have been made.
Peter Dutton #auspol pic.twitter.com/wqVBVWSJqO
— Olivia Copse (@OliviaCopse) May 3, 2016
Peter Dutton Welcomes Press To Pre-Budget Presser To Address Photo Drama. pic.twitter.com/PRIa9ij0en
— Peter Taggart (@petertaggart) May 3, 2016
Guardian Australia’s Darwin correspondent and immigration reporter, Helen Davidson, has this to say about Dutton’s comments that he will close 17 detention centres:
“This could tie in with recent moves this week to shift the mainland detention centre population around. On Monday a number of detainees inside Darwin’s Wickham Point facility were told they would move to other places, including Melbourne’s immigration transit accommodation.
“They were given a 20kg luggage limit, and some were flown out on Monday evening. Space had opened up in Melbourne after children and families were released into the community.”
Updated
Dutton repeats his frustration at refugee advocates in question time
In response to a question about the Coalition’s border protection policy, Peter Dutton repeats his comments made during a press conference earlier in the day that he is frustrated by refugee advocates. Speaking of the condition of Hodan Yasi, the second person to have self-immolated in the space of a week, Dutton says:
It is of grave concern this person would resort to such an extreme act of self-harm, but these acts have intensified and have now turned to extreme acts with terrible consequences.
I have expressed my frustration and anger at advocates who are communicating with people at risk. The government has been absolutely clear. We don’t want to see any self-harm. We don’t want to see the boats restart because we know if they do, the deaths at sea will recommence.
I’m pleased to announce ahead of the budget tonight that we will close 17 detention centres. We don’t want to see new boat arrivals, and we absolutely are determined that we are not going to see men, women and children drowning at sea ever again in this country.
He gives an update on the condition of Yasi, saying she remains in a critical situation.
It is a dire situation. The patient has received the utmost care, treatment and consideration both in Nauru and here in Australia.
Updated
On the face of it, this rate cut is not great news for Malcolm Turnbull. It shows the RBA is worried about the economy and that might enable Labor to hurt the Coalition in the forthcoming election campaign.
But the prime minister did his best to put a positive spin on the news in parliament today:
The governor’s remarks underline the risk posed by the opposition to that successful transition [from the mining-construction boom].
For more on this read Stephen Koukoulas’s latest for Guardian Australia:
Rate cut welcomed by retailers
The Australian Retailers Association likes the rate cut, which it thinks might increase flagging consumer confidence.
Russell Zimmerman, ARA executive director, said:
The Reserve Bank’s decision to cut rates on the eve of budget is a welcome support to what hopefully will be an economically supportive budget tonight in the light of recent weak consumer spending and confidence. We look forward to this cut filtering through to consumers and business and to tonight’s budget driving a strong retail economy moving forward.
You’ve got to think the real estate business and the banks will be pretty pleased with it too. There’s maybe life in house prices yet.
Updated
The deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, has criticised Labor’s alleged multibillion-dollar budget blowout due to a shortfall in expected revenue from taxing smokers.
“We’ve seen one item, a packet of cigarettes, they were more than $3.25bn out and the member for Jagajaga [Jenny Macklin] put it down to a rounding error. But for the Labor party, it is not a rounding error, it is a complete and utter cock-up on your capacity to have oversight over the affairs of the nation. What an absolute load of rubbish. Their economic policy is a load of rubbish.”
The phrase “cock-up” is now in the #qt Hansard thanks to Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce
— Frank Keany (@FJKeany) May 3, 2016
Updated
NAB passing rate cut on to customers
Good news for NAB mortgage holders. Your borrowing costs will fall after the bank said it would pass on the RBA’s cut.
Will others follow suit?
The RBA’s decision raises a few questions about the health of the Australian economy. The fundamentals are not too shabby – growth still ticking along over 2% and employment standing up well to the end of the mining boom and subsequent loss of investment.
But the policy makers must be a bit concerned about that inflation shock and they also indicated that they were worried about a possible weakening of the labour market and a higher dollar. Here is some more from Glenn Stevens’s statement:
Commodity prices have firmed noticeably from recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia’s terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.
Sentiment in financial markets has improved, after a period of heightened volatility early in the year. However, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions continues. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom. GDP growth picked up over 2015, particularly in the second half of the year, and the labour market improved. Indications are that growth is continuing in 2016, though probably at a more moderate pace. Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late.
Inflation has been quite low for some time and recent data were unexpectedly low. While the quarterly data contain some temporary factors, these results, together with ongoing very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, point to a lower outlook for inflation than previously forecast.
Monetary policy has been accommodative for quite some time. Low interest rates have been supporting demand and the lower exchange rate overall has helped the traded sector. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, while that to businesses has picked up over the past year or so. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
Updated
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, cited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75% as evidence of concern about the economy.
In response, Malcolm Turnbull quoted the RBA’s statement:
“In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom. GDP growth picked up over 2015, particularly in the second half of the year, and the labour market improved. Indications are that growth is continuing in 2016, though probably at a more moderate pace.”
Turnbull said the government would deliver jobs and growth, and a “sustainable tax system for the 21st century economy, commitments to health, education, infrastructure, fully funded, and a return of the budget to balance”.
“That’s our commitment and that will continue the successful transition, of which the Reserve Bank governor wrote of only a few minutes ago.”
Updated
Dollar plunges
The Aussie dollar is the most immediate casualty of this decision, which will leave a few traders out of pocket today.
It plunged more than US1c after the decision, but the current weakness of the US dollar might continue to support the local unit. Possibly.
Updated
Stimulus needed 'for growth prospects', says RBA
That’s a surprise.
Here’s the top line from the statement, which you can read in full here::
At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, effective 4 May 2016. This follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.
The statement sketches out its familiar view of the global headwinds facing the Australain economy but then cuts to the chase. It fingers the swift fall in inflation in the last quarter and the receding threat of housing bubble in its decision to give the economy another shot in the arm.
In reaching today’s decision, the Board took careful note of developments in the housing market, where indications are that the effects of supervisory measures are strengthening lending standards and that price pressures have tended to abate. At present, the potential risks of lower interest rates in this area are less than they were a year ago.
Taking all these considerations into account, the Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.
Labor has asked the defence minister, Marise Payne, whether the government has a signed contract for all 12 submarines to be built in South Australia, and why she had said final details were still “subject to negotiations”.
Payne responds unequivocally: “The 12 submarines, for which DCNS is the preferred international design partner, will be built in South Australia, in Adelaide’s shipyards.”
She said the government had not rushed negotiation and finalisation of the contract this close to the election. But the 100% Australian-build is non-negotiable, it seems.
Updated
It’s oh so quiet.
Budget Day, 2016. #auspol #budget2016 pic.twitter.com/e2nayZT9Ig
— Nick Haggarty (@NickHaggarty) May 3, 2016
Summary
In Senate question time, the Greens’ immigration spokeswoman, Sarah Hanson-Young, has been asking the attorney general, George Brandis, about the death of an Iranian man and self-immolation of a second refugee last night.
Brandis labels it “an extraordinarily insensitive question” because the man’s family is grieving and the woman is still in a critical condition. He said it was shocking to use her condition to make a political statement.
“These are terrible events. And every person in this chamber should be saddened by them. But what we do not want to do, what we’re determined to do, is [not] go back to a situation that existed prior to the election where people with serious injuries or deaths were numbered in the thousands. More than 1,200 perished at sea.”
Updated
We’re on to innovation. Clive Palmer puts it to Turnbull that “Innovation won’t put food on the table”.
“Innovation won’t provide hospital beds, schools, warmth for a family on a school night. Innovation to the Liberal party means only 42% of funds raised are declared,” Palmer says.
Turnbull responds by taking a dig at Palmer’s embattled nickel refinery plant in Townsville, where almost 800 people were left jobless after the collapse of his company, Queensland Nickel.
Turnbull: “Honourable members would appreciate the importance of innovation, which creates jobs and in that sense puts bread on the table and increases prosperity and jobs. But I think all of us would be appreciative if the honourable member left innovation aside for a moment and focused on a very old-fashioned value ... which is taking responsibility for the workers in Townsville.”
Roars of “Hear! Hear!”
Updated
IT'S A CUT!!!
Cash rate cut to 1.75%, the RBA announces.
Most commentators are leaning towards no change today. The Australian Associated Press reported earlier that 10 of the 15 economists it surveyed last week believed rates would be held at 2% for a 13th consecutive month.
But a Commonwealth Bank economist, Savanth Sebastian, believes it will be a hold thanks to overall decent economic activity and unemployment figures.
The Australian economy is nicely balanced at present with healthy business conditions, confidence that is neither euphoric nor downbeat, a well-balanced job market, and an economy characterised by strong home building and an absence of price pressures.
Michael McCarthy at CMC Markets is a little bit more circumspect:
The call on this afternoon’s interest rate decision is a genuine 50/50 proposition. Low inflation gives the RBA board capacity to cut if they wish, with some suggesting the lowest core inflation read in years demands it. Others point to strong job numbers and a desire to keep some stimulus capacity in reserve as reasons not to move.
The Guardian’s Greg Jericho wrote on Monday that while there might be pressure for the RBA to cut – and some think its mandatory obligation to keep inflation between 2-3% means it has to cut – the real issue is that the federal government has to make the running through adjusting fiscal policy.
You’ve got to feel that the RBA governor, Glenn Stevens, believes that is what has to happen after saying last month that central bank policy was reaching the limits of its effectiveness.
We’ll see in a few moments.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull has hit back at questions from Shorten about the fairness of tax cuts for high-income earners by referring to reports that Labor’s tobacco excise plans have “a nearly $20bn costing hole”.
“I know that some members opposite have described $20bn as a rounding error. Well, I can assure honourable members on this side of the house that we regard that as a huge sum of money.”
Labor then tried to table a story by Fairfax’s Heath Aston that shows as recently as five weeks ago the parliamentary budget office produced very similar estimates to its earlier estimate for Labor that raising tobacco excise would garner $47.8bn. The parliamentary budget office did this second set of costings for senator David Leyonhjelm and found the rise would raise $47.8bn, just $100m short of its earlier costing for Labor.
Turnbull said Labor “can’t hide behind the [parliamentary budget office]” because it had costed Labor’s policy in November and its figures about smoking were outdated by the midyear economic and fiscal outlook in December. No word on the figures given to Leyonhjelm, though.
Updated
Shorten tries again.
Prime minister, what is fair about giving very high income earners a tax cut in tonight’s budget with someone earning $300,000 receiving $2,600 in tax cuts every year while a typical family loses $5,000 a year?
Turnbull thanks Shorten for the opportunity to talk about fairness, turning his attention to Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms:
Let’s talk about fairness – let’s talk about fairness – and their [Labor’s] negative gearing proposal. Under their proposal, a person earning $50,000, $60,000, $70,000, $80,000 a year, average weekly earnings, $80,000 a year, will not be able to deduct a net rental loss against their personal income.
They might have wanted to go into the trucking business. They might have wanted to be an owner-driver.
They will not be able to do that. They will not be able to deduct the net loss of an investment in shares, in a business they’ve started, to get going, to stop being an employee, to be independent. That’s what Labor wants to do: slam the door shut on that aspiration. That is the effect of their policy, the absolute inevitable effect.
Updated
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly today, indicating that the money is coming off a rate cut.
A rate cut would make Australia less attractive for international capital, pushing down the Aussie.
Question time has just begun and we’re head-first into budget-related questions. The opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has just asked Turnbull why he is “choosing to give large multinationals and high-income earners a tax cut while he’s cutting $5,000 a year from a typical family budget, including their family payments”?
Turnbull doesn’t really answer the question. He replies that the budget will set Australia up to take advantage of “the enormous opportunities on offer in this dynamic, global environment of the 21st century”.
A strong budget is a critical part of that plan. If we want to support jobs and growth in the 21st century, strong growth for all Australians, great jobs for our children and grandchildren in the years ahead, if we want to have the room to make smart investments in our future prosperity, we need to make sure we have our finances under control.
It is vital that plans be credible and that we get those calls right. Labor made the wrong calls, Mr Speaker. The budget under Labor was in structural deficit every year.
Updated
Markets cool on prospect of interest rate rise
The budget is not the only big economic news of the day. The Reserve Bank will announce its latest decision on interest rates in half an hour, a verdict much-awaited since shock inflation figures last week raised the prospect of another reduction in borrowing costs.
The market probability was reckoned to be up to 54% on Monday but has since cooled.
On Tuesday the Coalition joint party room had a strong pre-election flavour to it.
The directors of the federal Liberal party, Tony Nutt, and National party, Scott Mitchell, who don’t usually attend the party room, gave a confidential election campaign briefing.
Most of all, the Coalition seemed keen to avoid Labor’s fate after it changed prime ministers mid-term, when high-profile leaks in the 2010 campaign contributed to a near-defeat and hung parliament.
In valedictory speeches the former trade minister, Andrew Robb, called for unity leading into the election. He said the Coalition party room was the strongest he had seen in 35 years in politics and had the talent to govern for a long time.
Mal Brough warned Coalition MPs: “Don’t put the self above the collective. Do that, and we will win the election.”
Malcolm Turnbull talked about the government’s economic plan in Tuesday’s budget. Unlike Jaymes Diaz, he knew all six points of the six-point plan. They were: the science and innovation agenda; the government’s defence industry plan to create high-tech jobs; free trade agreements; tax cuts and incentives for families and small business; a crackdown on tax loopholes; and funding for education, health and roads.
If that doesn’t sound like a pre-election budget, I don’t know what does.
Updated
From AAP, the latest on Family First senator Bob Day’s challenge to the constitutionality of new Senate voting laws:
Crossbench senator Bob Day believes he’s got more than a strong chance of successfully challenging new Senate voting laws. On Tuesday the high court reserved its decision after both sides finished presenting their cases to the full bench.
Day expects an outcome by next week; the court indicated it was aware 11 May is the last day a double-dissolution election can be called.
“I couldn’t be happier,” he said.
“Whatever the result ... we’ve had a really good fair go.”
Under the new laws, voters can allocate preferences above the line.
If they choose to vote below the line, they will only have to number 12 boxes – not every single one, which can be more than 100.
Day believes the changes, passed in March, are unconstitutional.
“The effect for many millions of voters is that their vote will exhaust, their vote will die, and they are not informed of that,” he said.
“The high court is now fully aware of that and they’ve reserved their decision, which we expect will be within the next week.”
He said the government tried to “whitewash” his case with its lawyers only briefly responding to his arguments.
Updated
Liberal MP and former small business minister Bruce Billson just described small business as the “yogalates” of the last budget during an interview on ABC News 24. According to Google, yogalates is “a ground-breaking fusion of yoga and pilates”.
Small business was the new black. That was the yogalates of the last budget. We need to stop talking about the amount of resources going into initiative A or portfolio B and start talking about resourcefulness, the use of scarce resources.
I think that’s going to be the shift, otherwise we gift to our kids debt that they have to pay. That’s intergenerational theft. It’s not why I got involved in public life.
Turning his attention to the election, Billson says he hopes the result will be a decisive one.
I hope for our country the decision’s decisive. I think the Australian public wants someone in charge who will actually implement their election commitments and be held accountable for their performance and if they don’t do a good job, punt them out. There’s not been someone fully in charge and therefore there’s been compromise which is part of politics but that then undermines accountability.
And the electorate has got frustrated that political parties have promised something or outlined a manifesto or an agenda and not been able to implement it.
Updated
Guardian Australia’s immigration reporter, Ben Doherty, has filed this piece on Dutton’s press conference earlier, in which he blamed refugee advocates for encouraging asylum seekers to self-harm:
The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, has blamed refugee advocates for the suicide attempts on Nauru and Manus, alleging they are encouraging detainees to self-harm in the hope of getting to Australia.
A second refugee, Hodan Yasi, self-immolated on Nauru overnight and is in a Brisbane hospital in a critical condition.
Pressed on his allegation, Dutton offered no examples of refugee supporters advocating acts of self-harm, but said his office received “advice” and “intelligence” that it was occurring.
“There is a lot of publicly available information in relation to some of the social media messaging as well,” he said.
“I have previously expressed my frustration and anger at advocates and others who are in contact with those in regional processing centres and who are encouraging some of these people to behave in a certain way, believing that that pressure exerted on the Australian government will see a change in our policy in relation to our border protection measures,” Dutton said.
The government would not be swayed by public pressure, protests, or acts of self-harm.
Read the full story here.
Updated
The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, and senator Sarah Hanson-Young have just wrapped up their pre-budget press conference. Hanson-Young said that she was “disgusted” by Dutton’s press conference earlier today during which he accused refugee advocates of stirring up trouble and driving asylum seekers to self-harm, including self-immolation.
Hanson-Young called Dutton a “coward”.
Peter Dutton’s a coward. He, rather than seeing that this is a policy in free-fall, that this government’s policy is harming people, hurting people, breaking young women, children, and taking responsibility for that, he turns around and blames the victim.
Blames those who are speaking for the victims. There’s nothing more to say. He’s a minister who blames others. No one else put that woman on a plane. He did that. It is the minister’s ultimate responsibility. It is a personal discretion of the minister. He did that. He should take responsibility for it, and stop being such a coward.
Thanks everyone.
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Melissa Davey here with you as the Canberra team prepare to enter the lock-up.
Let’s begin with this spectacular portrait of Peter Dutton, taken by Fairfax photographer Alex Ellinghausen and brought to our attention by Guardian cartoonist First Dog on the Moon, who is also heading into the lock-up.
caption comp! pic.twitter.com/FCEmBjIiNS
— Mr Onthemoon (@firstdogonmoon) May 3, 2016
Apparently, the immigration minister’s office is none too pleased about at least one of Ellinghausen’s shots. Unclear if the above pic is the one that Fairfax’s Stephanie Peatling is referring to here:
IM Dutton's office tres unhappy abt most recent pic of him so have taken it off twitter because I don't have time to argue with them.
— Stephanie Peatling (@srpeatling) May 3, 2016
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Now, for the shift change. While I’m locked down for the next few hours Politics Live will be tended with care and affection by the dream team of Melissa Davey and Helen Davidson. Champion ladies, both. They will be assisted by the mighty Paul Karp (no relation to the fish the deputy prime minister expressed homicidal feelings about yesterday). Paul is minding the Canberra shop during the black hole period. You could not be in better company. If you are strange enough to hanker for my company I’ll be back with you this evening. Until then, be zen. I won’t, but you may as well be.
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Politics this budget day lunchtime
The chambers are whirring into life. The masses are massing for the lock-up.
Let’s take stock.
Today, Tuesday:
- It’s budget day. Let the angels rejoice. The treasurer says today is less about budgets and more about national economic plans. “It’s not a typical budget, it’s not an ordinary budget,” Morrison says. “This a budget that has to deliver a plan for jobs and growth. Sweeteners won’t change the circumstances for the people who are facing difficult times in our economy. A national plan for growth and jobs is what they need and that’s what they’ll get in the budget tonight.”
- The government says Labor has a $20bn black hole in its costings, because Labor relied on a parliamentary budget office costing for revenue raised via a proposed rise in the tobacco excise, while the government relied on a treasury costing for the same measure, and the treasury costing produced a different, smaller, number. Labor says it will take the treasury number, subtracting the billions, and says it has sufficient savings to fund its election promises. Don’t you worry about that.
- The government says it has tried to make today’s budget fair and Labor says it hasn’t tried nearly hard enough. We’ll know which version is correct at 7.30pm.
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Bill Shorten has told his colleagues that Labor deserves to win the election on its policy offering, and because the caucus has been united, learning the lessons from the past period in government.
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Peter Dutton says people are self-harming on Nauru because refugee advocates are stirring up trouble – not because they are stuck in a Kafkaesque nightmare imposed on them by the Australian government courtesy of our border protection policies. A second refugee remains in critical condition after setting herself alight on Nauru yesterday.
That’s about the sum of things.
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Let’s get back to the budget for a bit before I summarise where we are up to, and execute a shift change here on Politics Live.
I mentioned this yesterday, for folks with me then, but it bears repeating again. Labor is keeping its options open on supporting the putative tax cuts for workers earning more than $80,000.
This is the shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, from earlier today.
Q: Hypothetically Chris Bowen, would you support if those changes were to be introduced?
Chris Bowen:
Well, we want to look at – there’s not long to go. Scott Morrison will be delivering it at 7.30 tonight. I will be responding in various media interviews from 8 o’clock onwards and I’ll be outlining Labor’s position. And I want to sit down with the shadow expenditure review committee and go through that quite methodically.
Q: Will you support a cut to company tax?
Chris Bowen:
Well, I don’t think a cut in the company tax rate for big companies is a priority at this time but again, I want to see just how the government puts this together. Not long to go.
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I’m trying to imagine how an advocate would be able to convince a detainee on Nauru to engage in life-threatening self-harm. It is quite hard to imagine that conversation, in the real world. But maybe spies and social media are a more reliable indicator than instinct, and lived human experience.
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Labor’s caucus has also addressed the topic of asylum seekers after the death of an Iranian man and self-immolation of a second refugee last night.
In a valedictory speech to her colleagues, the retiring MP Melissa Parke said “great harm is being done to people on Manus Island and Nauru”.
The opposition leader, Bill Shorten, told caucus: “If we get the chance to form government we will make it clear through our actions we don’t support indefinite detention. The people concerned will be resettled in third countries.”
Another member praised Shorten and the way the opposition spokesman on immigration minister, Richard Marles, handled asylum seekers, saying Labor should “always protect the interests of the most vulnerable”.
Shorten responded that Labor had to have policies that avoided drownings at sea and that treated people within our care decently.
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Q: Do you know if the reports are true that this was the second suicide attempt by this woman?
Peter Dutton:
I am not commenting in relation to individual medical histories about patients. I haven’t made a practice of that. What I can say is that this woman had been to Australia before, received medical attention, received a clearance to return to Nauru, was provided with medical assistance in Nauru as well.
As we have said before, when people have received medical assistance that they come to Australia to receive, once that medical assistance has been provided, they will return to Nauru.
Another obvious and more than reasonable question.
Q: What is your evidence that it is the advocates who are driving these people to take this extreme measure?
Peter Dutton:
There is a lot of advice that we receive, intelligence we receive, contact between the staff and those people on Nauru.
There is a lot of publicly available information in relation to some of the social media messaging as well.
There is no doubt about the actions of some, and as I say, this results in a difficult circumstance, compounded by these comments and this advice and we should call it out for what it is.
I have stood up in this room before, made public comment in the House and I have addressed you elsewhere before about my concerns over a period of time of the advocates and those people who are opposed to the government’s tough border protection policies.
We are not going to change those policies, and the advocates, by providing false hope to these people, really [are] to be condemned. They can provide offers of support, that is reasonable. But to provide advice otherwise is very dangerous.
We are seeing that play out at the moment. We are not going to allow for it to continue.
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Q: Why did it take 24 hours to airlift the Iranian refugee and it took only 12 hours to airlift this refugee?
Peter Dutton:
Because there were issues in relation to flight crews, the mandated rest times that flight crews have to have, the availability of flight crews for the air ambulance, the stabilisation of the patient, and on medical advice we rely as to when the person is stabilised or in a position to be able to fly.
There was no delay.
I know there is a conspiracy amongst some of the advocates that there was delay. There wasn’t. It is a nonsense. I have dealt with it and I won’t answer questions on that again.
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Dutton is asked about reports of a third incident on Nauru. He says he has no information about that.
Dutton is asked about Manus island after the PNG supreme court decision last week. What is the update?
Peter Dutton:
There are discussions under way now. Our officials have travelled up there over the weekend and they are in discussions with their counterparts about the issues arising from the supreme court decision last week.
That is the update I can give you in relation to Manus.
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First question is pretty obvious.
Q: Do you accept that rather than this being at the behest of refugee advocates, these people are just desperate and that is why they are self-harming?
Peter Dutton:
People have paid thousands of dollars to people smugglers to come to Australia and they haven’t arrived in Australia. They are frustrated by that, I can understand that.
I repeat the call to advocates today that their intentions may be honourable and they may be noble in their own minds, but they are causing serious harm.
We won’t tolerate that situation.
Peter Dutton says the government has no intention of changing its border protection policies.
Advocates should reflect on their messages of false hope and misleading portrayal of the situation in Nauru. While some may be encouraged by messages of false hope and some may resort to extreme action, this government will not be dissuaded from its stated border protection policies, nor will it tolerate threats to assets in Nauru, such as the hospital that has been provided for the benefit of those in the regional processing centre, refugees and the people of Nauru.
Immigration minister blames advocates for self harm on Nauru
The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, is in the Blue Room giving update on events on Nauru that I pointed you to earlier today.
Peter Dutton:
The lady has been transferred from Nauru and has arrived in Australia. She remains in a very serious, critical condition and all efforts are being made to meet her medical needs. Like all of you, we can only hope for the best possible outcome.
Dutton isn’t inclined to see his policy and Labor’s policy as the problem. Apparently the self harm is the fault of refugee advocates.
It is of grave concern that this person would resort to such an extreme act of self-harm. The behaviours have intensified in recent times, and as we see they have turned to extreme acts with terrible consequences.
Advocates who proclaim to represent and support the interests of refugees and asylum seekers must frankly hear a clear message and I will repeat it again today.
Their activities and these behaviours must end.
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It’s also worth pausing on, I think, the only new fact in the news cycle this morning. Tonight’s budget, according to the Daily Telegraph, will promise cuts taxes for small businesses. The current rate of 28.5% will be lowered to 27.5% from 1 July, which, in case you’ve forgotten, is the day before the election.
The paper reports that eligibility for the new tax rate will be increased for companies with a turnover of up to $10m, up from the $2m threshold now. “There will be greater access to the instant asset write-off scheme, which allows small firms to claim an unlimited number of assets worth up to $20,000 each. Larger companies will continue to pay the 30% tax rate, but the budget is expected to include a ‘glide path’ to 27.5% over time.”
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Growth fixes revenue, Mathias Cormann on the end of the budget emergency
It’s worth posting this, which I glanced over in the shock and awe of the early morning news cycle. The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, on whatever happened to the budget emergency.
This is from the ABC.
Q: Do we still have a deficit problem?
Mathias Cormann:
Well what the budget will show is that the deficit is coming down year on year both in dollar terms and as a share of GDP. The government has continued to focus on controlling expenditure wherever we’ve been required to spend more money we’ve paid for that – more than paid for that by spending reductions in other parts of the budget. And what you’ll see is that spending as a share of the economy will continue to come down over the forward estimates. So what we’ve done is to work to get the budget back into balance based on spending restraint, controlling expenditure not based on increasing the overall tax burden in the economy which would be bad for economic growth and jobs.
Q: But we’ve had a deficit now for what? Something like eight years.
Mathias Cormann:
Yeah.
Q: It’s still more than 2% of GDP, something like 2.4% or something like that. There is no sign that it’s going down quickly. This talk a couple of years ago of a deficit and budget crisis seems to have disappeared?
Mathias Cormann:
Well you’re quite right, that when Labor in 2007 inherited a strong economy and a strong budget. When we came into budget in 2013 we inherited a weakening economy and a deteriorating budget position ...
Q: I guess my point is ...
Mathias Cormann:
... spending out of control and my point is – what we’ve done over the last two and a half years is work very hard to turn the situation around that we inherited and to get spending under control and to strengthen growth and create more jobs. And I think what I would put to you and what the treasurer will outline tonight is that we’ve made significant progress.
We are now heading in the right direction. Yes there is more work to be done. Yes there is further work to be done, but this is not the time to change direction. This is not the time to undermine a successful economic transition by things like $100bn tax increase which Labor is promising over the next decade, increased taxes at that level just to spend more. That will hurt economic growth, where what we need is of course policies to strengthen growth and create more jobs.
Q: OK, but as I say the 2% of GDP figure hasn’t really shifted much. It was 2.7, it’s 2.4, 2.3 who knows what it’s going to be tonight, but it will be around that figure again?
Mathias Cormann:
Well what you’ll see is that over the forward estimates the deficit is reducing in year on year in a steady fashion, in a responsible fashion, and that we are doing it on the basis of controlling expenditure not on the basis of increasing the overall tax burden in the Australian economy.
Q: But it hasn’t shifted much. My point is: won’t some government eventually have to increase taxes and reduce spending to deal with this?
Mathias Cormann:
The way to increase revenue in a good way is by strengthening growth because stronger economic growth also delivers a revenue dividend for government.
Now if we were to increase taxes the way that the Labor party is proposing to do, if we were to go down the path of $100bn in additional taxes over the next decade, that would hurt economic growth.
It would make it harder for people across Australia to be successful. It would make it harder for government actually to raise more revenue. I mean you know we’ve seen now this Labor policy on the tobacco excise, the $20bn hole in their costings...
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Magic Mike calls that last picture of Chris Bowen and Wayne Swan the heir and the spare.
One last one of the new recruit.
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Love this picture. Two snappers, two treasurers.
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You say goodbye, I say hello. To Labor’s newest caucus member, Pat Dodson.
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Shorten references the black hole development overnight by saying Labor will take costed policies to the election. He then says farewell to this group who will scatter by week’s end to defend their seats.
Bill Shorten:
It’s been a long journey this last nearly 1,000 days. This caucus has answered the first question which millions of people who count upon a united Labor party [ask]: are we united? And I couldn’t be more grateful for the contribution of each and every individual. I don’t pretend that everyone here has agreed with everything that’s been said.
I can’t.
But what I can say is that there is no person in this caucus in the last three years who I wish I could swap away. Just as I don’t wish that any day of the last 940 days could be other than what it was. I do not wish, and I cannot wish, for a finer group of people to serve alongside.
We’ve established that we are united and we’ve done more policy work than an opposition has done in many a year, because not only is this team determined to be a strong opposition, we are determined to be a strong alternative government for Australia.
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Shorten: "Arguably with our policies, we deserve to win ..."
Shorten is transiting out of budget week into the campaign ahead.
Malcolm Turnbull’s about to give Australia one of the longest election campaigns they’ve never asked for, but the terms of engagement will be set this week.
And all we see is the prospect of a mediocre budget with the wrong priorities and policies. And by contrast, this united team will be able to articulate a plan for the future.
For the last two caucus meetings I’ve spoken about how we can win. Today I want to say to you that arguably with our policies we deserve to win.
In saying that there’s no hubris. We’re the underdogs in this election but what we have always fought for in this party is to offer Australians the best plan for the future.
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Bill Shorten, continuing.
We’ve been here before with this government. This will be another unfair Liberal budget with its unfair priorities.
If the reports are true, this is a budget which will favour the big end of town over everyday Australians. How could it be fair that tonight someone who earns $300,000 will learn they will get a $2,600 tax cut, yet families, average Australian families, the people who make up this great country, earning $60,000 a year, will face cuts of $5,000. How could it possibly argue to be fair that the top 1% of income earners are going to experience generous reductions in the amount of tax that they pay yet in Tasmania where only four out of every five workers receives less than $80,000, they get nothing. Or in regional Queensland, four out of five people who go to work help make up that great state, earn less than $80,000 a year. How can it be argued to them that it is fair that people in the top 1% of Australia’s income earners are going to get massive tax cuts and the vast bulk of people who hold this society up get nothing? And indeed, it is actually less than nothing they will get.
Study this budget carefully for the cuts that it makes.
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The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is addressing his caucus colleagues now, framing the debate he wants to have this week.
Tonight, when we watch the Liberal guests clap Scott Morrison and his budget, remember they all stood up and applauded Joe Hockey in 2014.
And remember that budget was a budget where it was all about living within our means. I think the particular reference there was lifters and leaners. But what we did is we made that budget about its unfairness. We called it for what it really was.
It defined, a budget defines a government and the response defines an opposition. A budget is about the terms of engagement of political debate in this country.
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To be clear, this tweet was from last night. Treasury can count. The treasurer had some difficulty with that yesterday.
#Budget2016 papers were guarded closely by @Treasury_AU officers last night. 12hrs to go! https://t.co/AZTkfPw6lX pic.twitter.com/ukqA2FvjD0
— Australian Treasury (@Treasury_AU) May 2, 2016
It’s probably useful about now if I run through the timetable of the day for people who don’t speak budget.
Today is a normal parliamentary Tuesday. The party rooms are going about their normal business, and parliament will sit as usual for question time at 2pm.
Journalists go into the budget lockup around lunchtime and we are off air until the embargo is lifted at 7.30pm, when the treasurer rises to make his budget speech in the House of Representatives.
Lucky for you folks though, two of my colleagues will tend Politics Live while I’m in the lock-up, keeping you posted about the political events of the day.
I will be back with you magically just before the end of the lock-up, and then in non-magical form post lock-up, anchoring our live coverage throughout the evening. All the key budget measures, what various people are saying about them, my own thoughts and the thoughts of colleagues. That’s the plan.
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Real Housewives of LockUps. Thanks for joining us.
On our way Fedral budget tomorrow! @JasonWood_mp #Federalbudget2016 #RHOMelbourne #RHOM pic.twitter.com/UYwnFrE4XT
— Gamble Breaux (@GambleBreaux) May 2, 2016
I’m keeping laser-like focus on the budget, and we have excellent coverage on this story elsewhere on Guardian Australia, but I do need to reference the fact that a second person has set herself alight on Nauru.
Ben Doherty and Helen Davidson report that a young Somali woman has been taken to Australia by air ambulance, but her situation remains critical. She is the second asylum seeker in a week to self harm in this way.
Recent events in PNG and Nauru rated not one mention in question time yesterday. Not one.
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Now to Labor. Last night the Nine Network’s political editor, Laurie Oakes, broke a story indicating that Labor’s plan to raise the tobacco excise will raise billions of dollars less than it thinks. That’s problematic in the sense that the revenue is funding some of Labor’s spending for the election.
The government is seeking to frame this as a credibility issue for Labor – $20bn black holes in your costings, and so on and so forth. These people couldn’t run a chook raffle.
Labor says hang on, we used standard assumptions in our costing prepared by the parliamentary budget office. We didn’t make it up.
The opposition spokesman on finance, Tony Burke, on Radio National this morning:
We used the long-held treasury assumptions that had previously been used, the assumptions determined by the parliamentary budget office, and they go through to previous assumptions used by treasury.
Can I make clear here, Fran, in the first instance, from the 2014 budget to the 2015 budget, what the government projected to gain through company tax revenue, the next budget was $21.5bn less.
That doesn’t mean there is a $21bn black hole. It simply means the assumptions were updated. That’s what’s happened here.
We have never linked specific revenue measures to specific [spending] items.
Q: Are you prepared to say now that treasury’s latest figures are more reliable than the figures that the parliamentary budget office had used when Labor got their figures? Are you happy now to revise down your revenue predictions from this tax?
Chris Bowen has made it clear.
Wherever there’s an updated set of assumptions, then you adjust your figures as a result of that.
So to cut a long story short, here’s what’s happened.
- The government is going to adopt Labor’s plan in this budget to raise tobacco excise because, like Labor, it needs revenue to fund election spending.
- The government has used an opportunity to leak on budget eve its own costings on the proposed excise hike, which are different from Labor’s PBO costings, in an effort to generate an election standard: the black hole story.
- As a consequence of the treasury costing, Labor now has to take a $20bn write-down in its costings ahead of the election. This is, of course, quite inconvenient.
- Labor says it will accept that eventuality, and take the new treasury figure.
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Don’t you worry about that credit rating.
Don’t you worry about that.
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Q: Do you think you’ve done enough to allay the concerns of Moody’s and other agencies?
Scott Morrison:
What you’ll see in the budget is consistent with what we said in the midyear update, a very clear path towards budget balance.
What you’ll see is expenditure as a share of the economy continuing to fall ... You don’t get to a budget balance and be able to sustain it by just ramping up taxes and ramping up spending. That is not a sustainable plan for Australia, not a plan for jobs and growth.
What all will see tonight is our plan delivers on our commitment to ensure that our spending as a share of the economy falls over the budget and forward estimates, that the deficit falls over the budget and the forward estimates.
Not based on rosy – rose-coloured glasses when it comes to forecasts, taxes that don’t raise the money that Labor claimed they would, but on carefully considered plans that Australians can rely on for jobs and growth.
(In April, the global rating agency Moody’s warned the government spending cuts alone would not be enough to safeguard Australia’s AAA credit rating; revenue measures were also important. Hence the question.)
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To the business of the day, which I will deal with in chunks. Let’s start with the government. The treasurer and the finance minister are tag teaming in the morning news cycle. A few highlights.
The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, on the ABC.
Q: Will the budget be fair? No one will be able to label it unfair like the 2014 budget?
Mathias Cormann:
We set out to make sure it is fair.
It will be up to analysts to make their comments and observations.
Scott Morrison, as I mentioned first up, has made his grand entrance into the building, the same grand entrance that every treasurer has made on budget day since I arrived in this building 20 years ago, although these days the ample security at the back of the ministerial entrance makes the float to glory somewhat more convoluted.
Treasurers take a considerable period of time to work up the scripts they deliver at the door, so let’s have the opening gambit in full.
Scott Morrison:
There are many important days in the Australian parliament and this day is no different. This day is very important for Australia because what Australia needs at this very sensitive time in our economic transition is a national plan for jobs and growth that will reassure every Australian about the path we’re on to make our way through this transition.
All around the country today, this transition is being felt differently. There are some parts of the country that are really moving ahead and that’s great to see, but I know that there are other parts of the country, and Ewen Jones will tell me about that up in Townsville or Rowan Ramsey will tell me about that down in Whyalla, where this transition is being felt far more acutely.
That’s why tonight’s budget has to be a national economic plan. It’s not a typical budget, it’s not an ordinary budget. This a budget that has to deliver a plan for jobs and growth. Sweeteners won’t change the circumstances for the people who are facing difficult times in our economy. A national plan for growth and jobs is what they need and that’s what they’ll get in the budget tonight.
What they’ll see in that plan tonight is that we’ll stick to our jobs and growth focus, that we will ensure that we will deal with the specific problems in our tax system, that means we can secure the future of the commitments we have to future generations and that we will live within our means as a government – as Australian householders and businesses are doing – to ensure that we can balance the budget and reduce the debt over time. These are the key conditions that our budget will meet tonight and that’s what we will be focused on and what we’ll present this evening.
It will be an important day. It’s a clear plan for jobs and growth, it’s a clear plan for us to move to a stronger economy, more diversified economy, as we continue to make this successful transition from the mining investment boom to a more diversified, strong economy today.
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The Daily Telegraph’s hot take.
Scott Morrison stopped the boats, but can his first budget win the election?
(Stand back everyone else in the government. All hail the saviour.)
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Happy budget day
Good morning good people and welcome to budget day in Canberra. It is wonderful to be with you for the annual abacus fest, made more piquant by the proximity of the poll.
A colleague of mine is fond of telling me when there’s something tough to do, it’s best to just power on. She likes the analogy of diving into a cold pool, which might be appropriate advice considering what I’m about to show you.
g'day chicks pic.twitter.com/uZJcHbt34x
— Farmering Dad (@DamienCWalker) May 2, 2016
Yes, meet Scott Morrison, hubba hubba man.
I know that’s a lot, particularly first up, and without a content warning, but it’s important to let you know that the News Corp tabloids in Brisbane and in Sydney are fully behind our some time treasurer and some time hot babe. Important to know, and nothing to do other than just dish it, like a generous buffet breakfast, extra hash browns, hold the quinoa.
On budget day, the newspapers tend to create the impression that every child gets a prize, unless of course every child doesn’t get a prize because prizes are bad for children. This morning the trail of crumbs in the news points to a Google tax for multinationals, a tax cut for small business, good times for mums, a bonus unicorn – no, not that last thing. I made that up.
The airwaves are blasting politics with maximum force. The government is saying today is a great day for jobs and growth, and Labor is fighting a small bushfire about its tobacco excise increase costings. The treasurer is making his grand entrance to the building clutching a briefcase that looks like it could house a small village and the nuclear codes.
I’ll pick that all apart in coming posts.
Onwards and upwards.
The comments thread is open for your business. Magic Mike and I are up and about on the twits – he’s @mpbowers and I’m @murpharoo. If you speak Facebook you can join my daily forum here. And if you want a behind-the-scenes look at the day and the looming campaign, give Mike a follow on Instagram. You can find him here.
Hang on to your jobs and growth. Here comes Tuesday.
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