Good night and good luck with making sense of numbers that either aren't there, or keep changing
Well folks, though I remain a little in the dark about various pieces of this jigsaw puzzle, that will have to do for this evening.
Given Shorten was keen on teaching coding, let’s try with this parting post to decode the Labor leader’s contribution tonight.
- The politics of tonight are obvious: Shorten is portraying himself as future man, fairness man, equality man, techno man, the anti-Abbott, the dealmaker who will work with Abbott, and the man who will fight for the Labor heartland.
- He’d like you to take home that message from tonight, and he probably delivered that message tonight.
Now for the fineprint he’d like you to walk on by.
- Shorten delivered a big spending package with no offsets, or at least no known offsets. It took time to get detailed information delivered clearly and accurately, which isn’t a good sign.
- If you were looking for an alternative vision of budget sustainability, you’ll still be looking, because it wasn’t there.
But me carping on a live blog at 9.23pm won’t stop the pats on the back all round.
Thanks for your fine company in a very long and hard week.
We do appreciate you being here with us in large numbers and loud voices. Until we meet again, good night, hug your loved ones, and be very well.
To be clear: none of the background material we’ve been given by Labor tonight contains any specific offsets for this spending.
Numbers – yes, it's confusing
Back to the numbers we do have now. There’s some confusion because a number supplied to us earlier by a Labor official is not the number contained in the explanatory fact sheets. Earlier I told you the HECs debt relief was $353.2m over the forward estimates, based on that advice.
Now I have different costings for the teaching measures and the HECs debt relief.
The numbers I have from the fact sheets are:
- Skilling teachers – $127m over the forward estimates
- Teaching scholarships – $133m over the forward estimates
- HECs debt relief – $45m over the forward estimates
Assistant treasurer Josh Frydenberg is up now to respond to Shorten’s speech. He says Bill Shorten is all politics and no costings.
There was no plan, and the numbers don’t add up.
The tail end of the 730 Report interview covered funding for the national disability insurance scheme and unity, given the soap opera of the Rudd/Gillard years.
Shorten said Labor would provide a costed policy on the NDIS prior to the election.
I believe that we will fund it and ... we will have properly costed policies at the election.
Q: OK. We just have to take your word on it for now is what you’re saying?
No, I’m saying look at our record.
And unity?
Q: Australians need to know when they vote for you they’re not voting for a return to the Rudd/Gillard era that they didn’t like?
Shorten:
Well, we’re a far more united team. And all your journalists who work for the ABC in Canberra would attest to you from all their conversations that’s the case.
When you look at the current tensions in the Liberal Party we’re clearly Scott Morrison was parading his wares to say he could do a better job than Joe Hockey, clearly Malcolm Turnbull is frustrated he is not sitting at the desk in Tony Abbott’s office.
When it comes to leadership instability, we’re not the game in town any more.
The Labor leader has been on the 730 Report.
Host Leigh Sales is looking for detail, she’s not content with motherhood. She’s like that, really.
Q: You raised bracket creep. What are you planning to do about that bracket creep?
Bill Shorten:
That’s exactly what I’m going to answer. I raised tonight our taxation system, including bracket creep, including the need to perhaps turbo charge long-term confidence and we need to have a bipartisan approach on taxation. We’ve got a bipartisan approach on national security. But I think a lot of Australians would like to see Tony Abbott and I sit down and work through future of our tax system.
Q: What are you proposing on bracket creep?
I’m proposing we sit down with Tony Abbott and see what we can do collectively.
Q: You’ve proposed cutting the tax rate for small business by 5%. The government’s plan is 1.5%. Where is your modelling on that to show that the benefit to the economy of your 5% proposal will outweigh the lost revenue?
First I said was that Tony Abbott and I need to talk about it. You can only do the big reforms together.
Q: Let me ask you again to please address the question which is: where is your modelling to show that that would be a good idea for the economy?
Well, I have the same logic that the government has. Surely if the government believes that reducing the tax rate by 1.5% will provide some confidence, my proposition is that what we need in this country is greater long-term confidence.
Q: What you’re suggesting is that therefore there’s an increment is there if you go up by 5%, that therefore it’s going to have an incremental effect?
I think it’s a big statement and I think it’s important for confidence.
Q: What you have said there is basically that that’s your gut feeling. I’m asking where your evidence ...
No, it’s not a gut feeling.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry thinks Shorten should have produced more tonight on fiscal sustainability.
But ACCI chief Kate Carnell likes the measures.
We are pleased to see that Bill Shorten has joined with the government in recognising that small businesses are a major driver of growth and new jobs in the Australian economy. His proposal for a 5% cut for tax to small business would make Australia’s company tax rate for those businesses more competitive by global standards. It has long been the position of the business community that we should aspire to a 25% company tax rate for all businesses in Australia. The Opposition leader’s idea of a partial loan guarantee to help startups and small businesses access finance is welcome and worthy of further exploration. We know that many entrepreneurs struggle to get the finance they need to turn their innovative ideas into viable businesses, and a policy that makes this easier is a step in the right direction.
Labor is now releasing a bit more detail about the major measures in tonight’s speech. I’ll keep you up to date as information comes to hand.
Infrastructure
- Shorten extended the hand of bipartisanship tonight on infrastructure, promising a joint approach to appointments to Infrastructure Australia. The fact sheet associated with that component of the speech says Infrastructure Australia’s funding will be increased by $18.5m as part of its new role.
My colleague Daniel Hurst, bless him, tells me Christopher Pyne is correct in his assertion about Labor’s record concerning the HECs debt relief abolition. The HECs debt relief was abolished, in stages, by Julia Gillard.
Apologies for doubting the word of the education minister. It’s been a long week.
Updated
The education minister is persisting. He says the HECs debt relief costing is off. Way off.
Labor's costings for their HECS discount is $353m but our estimate is more like $2.25b. That's Labor for you - totally innumerate.
— Christopher Pyne (@cpyne) May 14, 2015
A novel approach from Liberal backbencher George Christensen, taking to YouTube for his reaction to Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech. Three cheers for experimentation.
But gutsy to focus on baubles, given the baubles in the government’s budget.
The education minister Christopher Pyne is quick with the reaction. Labor has done this before, ‘tis true. But wasn’t it wound back rather than abolished? Happy to be corrected.
Labor proposes the same failed HECS discount policy they abolished themselves when they were in government adding $1.35b to student's debts.
— Christopher Pyne (@cpyne) May 14, 2015
I could not love this Mike Bowers picture more. Here’s Joe Hockey greeting the Labor enthusiasts in the public galleries.
This is the landing point.
Whatever this budget brings, we are ready. We are ready to offer remedies rather than reactions. We are ready to fight for equity and for what is reasonable. We are ready to fight for what is good and for what is true.
We see the future. We see the future as one defined by science, technology, education and innovation. We see a future for Australia with thriving businesses, productive infrastructure and liveable cities. We see an Australia writ large where opportunities are shared by all
This is the future that Labor believes in. This is our vision for what we can achieve together as a people and as a nation.
A smart modern and fair Australia.
I wonder if we’ll see some offsets? The cost of tonight’s outing appears to be mounting.
Shorten is now playing with Tony Abbott’s “have a go” catch phrase for this year’s budget.
Madam Speaker, it is reported that the government have nicknamed this the “have a go” budget. But it doesn’t have a go at returning to trend growth. It doesn’t have a go at smoothing the transition from mining to services in our cities. It doesn’t have a go at getting us back to surplus. It doesn’t have a go at reform. It doesn’t have a go at requiring skills in the digital age. Madam Speaker, it didn’t even have a go at apologising for the last budget!
But to be fair, Madam Speaker, it does have a go at some things. It does have a go at pensioners and the states. It does have a go at working women and working families. It does have a go at the students, the veterans, the carers, the job seekers. It does have a go at the sick and the vulnerable.
(You see what he did there, right?)
Then there’s the schools segment and the HECs debt relief. Apparently the total cost for that measure, the HECs relief, is $353.2m over the forward estimates.
The Labor leader is now reaching the segment of the speech with the new policy announcements that I flagged with you all first up. There’s the smart investment fund and the partial government guarantees for venture capital.
Our smart investment fund will partner with venture capitalists to invest in early stage and high potential companies. Our model has a proven record of success both here and abroad.
Every global company begins as a local one. Every big business starts out as small. That’s why Labor will work with the banks and finance industry to establish a partial guarantee scheme start-up to help more Australians convert their great ideas into good businesses.
Superannuation should not just be a tax haven for the few
Shorten then gives Tony Abbott a flick for digging in against reforming generous sueprannuation tax breaks.
Labor created an improved superannuation for the same reason we champion a fair pension. We believe in dignity, and security in retirement is the birth right of all Australians. And we will take responsibility for making sure superannuation is sustainable and fair – a national retirement savings system for the many, not just a tax haven for the few.
Prime minister, your stubborn defence of these unfair loopholes will only cause millions of other Australians to pay even more tax and our deficit to rise.
Work with me on tax and infrastructure, Tony
The Labor leader is pitching himself as a person who would bring people together. The states, industry with government – even the major political parties in Canberra. He says the budget had nothing to say about infrastructure.
In government I will do what you have proved to be incapable of. We will consult with the opposition of the day on every appointment to the Infrastructure Australia board to put the national interest first.
Prime minister, Australians are sick of the petty partisanship around appointments. We can and will do better.
Infrastructure must be at the centre of any plan for Australia’s future. It’s too important to be held hostage to short-term politicking or squabbling.
Shorten wants to work with Abbott on more issues.
That attracts laughter from the government benches.
Shorten:
I invite you to work with me on a fair and fiscally responsible plan to reduce the tax rate for Australian small business from 30 to 25% – not a 1.5% cut, a 5% cut.
That’s the future, that’s confidence.
Now I understand that this will not be easy and it may take longer than the life of one parliament. That’s why it must be bipartisan and it has to be fair. That’s why it must be part of a more comprehensive approach to address the key pressures in our taxation system, not only small business, but as I mentioned before, bracket creep and tax rates for ordinary working Australians.
All of these things and more need to be addressed together in a fair and fiscally responsible way.
Shorten:
This government’s second budget has one more thing in common with its first – it creates divisions and fault lines in our community.
Remember the 2014 lifters versus the leaners? They are at it again, this government.
Cutting family support to pay for childcare, pitting mums and dads of 3 and 4-year-olds against mums and dads of 6 and 7-year-olds.
The Labor leader is repeating some of his political arguments from today about the prime minister and women.
From praising women of calibre, to demonising rorters and frauds, that is how quickly this prime minister reverts to type about women in the workforce.
Shorten:
The truth is there are a trifecta of indecencies underpinning this budget. One, the repackaging of last year’s unfairness, cuts to schools, hospitals, universities and family support. Two, relying on bracket creep to increase taxation by stealth. Three, their unconscionable attack on the states.
Yes, Madam Speaker, it is a bad budget. In every respect, this budget is a hoax. It is an attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of Australians.
Where it counts, this is last year’s budget, re-branded, reheated and repackaged for an opinion poll.
The same broken promises, the same unfair, extreme ideology wrapped in trickery.
A cosmetic job by a very desperate make-up artist
The Labor leader is opening by blasting Tuesday’s budget, which he contends is silent on the future, the big picture.
Bill Shorten:
To the extent the treasurer pretends this budget is in any way remedial to the Australian economy, it is a hoax. Does it return Australia to trend growth this year, in future years? No. Does it smooth the transition in our economy? No. Does it deal with the challenges of the digital age and the new skills and jobs that we need? No. Does it deepen our engagement with Asia, does it help older Australians live in comfort, does it advance the equal treatment of women? Does it tackle climate change?
No, no, no, no and no.
It is nothing but a cosmetic job by a very desperate make-up artist.
The Labor leader is greeted with cheers and hollers from the public galleries. Labor has clearly packed out the joint. Madam Speaker warns that the Labor leader will be heard in silence, and that means the public galleries.
The main measures of tonight's speech in one post
As Bill Shorten rises to his feet in the chamber, let me give you the main announceables from the speech tonight. Tonight’s outing has a technology/science focus.
- He’s pledging $500m for a smart investment fund to partner with venture capitalists and fund managers to invest in early stage and high potential companies;
- There’s a partial guarantee scheme, called StartUp, to be delivered in partnership with banks and finance industry, to allow firms to access venture capital;
- There’s a pledge to work with the states and territories to ensure digital technologies, computer science and coding to be taught in every primary and secondary school in Australia;
- There’s also a pledge to boost the skills of 25,000 current primary and secondary teachers, training for 25,000 new teachers who are science and technology graduates;
- And a promise to write off HECS debts of 100,000 science, technology, engineering and maths students.
Tonight’s speech contains no new taxes or savings measures – or offsets for the specific measures being proposed. Perhaps more of that detail will emerge later, now the embargo has been lifted.
Good evening
Greetings folks and welcome to our live coverage of the Labor leader Bill Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech from parliament house. The opposition leader’s speech tonight marks the official end of budget week.
If this is the first time you’ve joined me today, and you’d like to review Thursday in Canberra, you can find today’s edition of Politics Live here. The story of the parliamentary day was childcare. The government came under heavy fire political for the savings measures required to deliver the new childcare scheme it unveiled on Tuesday night. If you want a comprehensive wrap of that issue and today’s developments, you can find Gabrielle Chan’s news story here.
But let’s keep looking forward. Tonight Bill Shorten gets the opposition leader’s rare chance to attract the full attention of voters rather than being relegated to just a couple of brief grabs at the end of the story on the evening news.
Wise opposition leaders use these outings well.
The government says tonight must be about how Shorten intends to manage the budget. The government says thus far, Shorten has shown more interest in spending money and taxing voters than either saving or cutting. The government points out that Labor has dumped savings measures it proposed while still in government. This is a reasonable point.
But the reasonable point needs a little bit of context. Labor says it won’t support government savings measures that are unfair to low and middle income earners. It would support fairer measures. You can see how this argument goes round and round in circles. In any case Shorten is more likely to go big picture this evening.
The official kick off is 7.30pm. I’ve opened the Politics Live comments thread for your observations, and you can give us a shout on Twitter if so inclined. I’m @murpharoo and he’s @mpbowers
