Summary
I’m about to wrap up this live blog of our budget coverage. We’re firing up a new one for my colleague Katharine Murphy that she will begin updating as soon as the lock up ends. You can find our continuing live coverage at this blog. For my final post for the night, here’s a short summary of some of the budget tidbits we’re learnt about today:
- Jobseekers under 25 will no longer need to wait six months to receive welfare payments. This is a significant backdown from one of the measures imposed in the previous federal budget.
- The foreign aid budget will not face any further overall cuts. But there will be some reductions within different programs. Foreign minister Julie Bishop told the joint party room that cuts would occur for some parts of the south east asian aid program.
As mentioned, our coverage of the budget will continue here with my colleague Katharine Murphy.
A little reminder of the countdown from the Treasury on where to go for all your budget needs.
#Budget2015 is handed down in 1 hour. You can access all budget papers at http://t.co/AZTkfPw6lX pic.twitter.com/vcNa6rMRni
— Australian Treasury (@Treasury_AU) May 12, 2015
This is the last of the Brick Budget photos. Very soon you’ll be able to see the real deal.
Our own Katharine Murphy is hard at work inside the lock up, along with the rest of the Guardian Australia team. She will be picking up our live coverage again right on 7:30pm as the treasurer makes his announcement.
So stay tuned as all the fun begins.
And here’s the full details of that announcement about welfare from Shalailah Medhora:
The federal government has backed down on its plan to force young jobseekers to wait six months before accessing unemployment payments, budget papers will reveal.
Instead, jobseekers under the age of 25 will have to wait four weeks before they receive the dole, an extension of the current one week waiting period.
The six-month waiting period for under-30s was one of the most controversial savings measures listed in last year’s budget. It was slated to save $1.2bn and encourage more young people into paid employment.
But the policy stalled in the Senate after failing to secure the support of Labor, the Greens and the majority of crossbenchers.
Treasurer Joe Hockey indicated that the policy would be scrapped when asked about it early on Tuesday morning.
“You’ll see a changed version of that,” he said. “You’ll see it tonight.”
The backdown is part of the Coalition’s $330m jobs package.
It includes:
- $106m in support for jobseekers who face significant barriers to unemployment, including young migrants and people with mental illness;
- $212m for a youth transition to work program for people with long-term welfare dependency;
- $14m for early school leavers to get into work or study.
Jobseekers under 25 won't need to wait six months for welfare payments
This is probably the last of the slow drip of budget details we’ll get before the big announcement at 7.30pm. My colleague Shalailah Medhora will have more details on this announcement shortly.
Jobseekers under the age of 25 will now only have to wait 4 weeks for the dole, rather than the slated 6 months for under 30s. #auspol
— Shalailah Medhora (@shalailah) May 12, 2015
The earlier six-month period was announced in the previous federal budget, and was immediately controversial. Many welfare and community groups said it posed real risks for young people in the community.
Updated
One of the many stories to come from this federal budget will be the tale of two commissions.
The Australian Charities and Not-for-profit Commission (ACNC) and Office of the Australian Information Commissioner (OAIC) were both slated for abolition by the federal government. Bills to axe both bodies were put forward to parliament – but they did not gain the support of enough cross-benchers or Labor to support their abolition.
The two organisations have been treated rather differently though. The social services minister, Scott Morrison, has made some encouraging noises about the ACNC that have quite strongly suggested it will continue to function beyond this budget. The body has become considerably more active over the past six months, and has been increasingly more vocal in its enforcement activities to ensure charities are operating appropriately.
The OAIC is another story. It manages and oversees Australia’s freedom of information laws, and privacy laws. As it stands in the proposed bill the freedom of information functions will be abolished and the privacy commissioner is to become part of the Australian Human Rights Commission.
Unlike the ACNC though, we haven’t heard a peep about the OAIC from the federal government. This is fairly worrying. In the last budget it was given extremely minimal funding in forward estimates because it was of course anticipated that it would be abolished entirely by this stage.
The prolific open government blogger and consultant Peter Timmins writes that the government should reinstate the commission.
All eyes on Canberra and the budget on Tuesday night to see if ‘good policy’ and ‘fairness’ extend to ending the government attempt to abolish the Office of Australian Information Commissioner.
And for signs after 18 months of mostly war on this front that the government can connect the dots to move ahead not backwards on open transparent and accountable government.
Updated
The budget lock-up continues. Only two and a half hours until all is revealed.
Of course, it is a very long evening for those holed up in the big room. You could forgive those who are so inclined for nipping out for a quick cigarette break. Or for those with more refined palates – like the treasurer, Joe Hockey, and the finance minister, Mathias Cormann – perhaps a sneaky cigar?
Updated
My colleague Michael Safi has just filed this report on the de-radicalisation grants the federal government said it would grant as part of new community-based schemes. He says the grants are only just being granted now:
Nine months – and at least four allegedly foiled plots – since the government first announced its $1.6m de-radicalisation program, the first grants have been given to mosques, sporting groups and community organisations.
Sums of up to $50,000 have been handed out to 34 groups so far amid hopes the scheme will help stem the flow of young Muslims to Syria and Iraq or disrupt an act of mass-murder at home.
What fuels radicalisation is complex and poorly understood. But the sorts of programs being funded by the Attorney General’s Department paint a picture of how Australia’s Muslim communities view the phenomenon, and how they intend to fight it.
Silma Ihram, from the Australian Muslim Women’s Association, will use the money to develop a formal qualification for Muslim mentors based in Sydney.
As she sees it, troubled or lost young people will naturally seek guidance. “The problem is that for all those people teaching Muslims, whether in public or private schools, sports groups or prisons, there’s no qualification or oversight, no guarantee they’ve got the required skills,” she says.
Greens senator Penny Wright was also asking about the government’s commitment to these schemes earlier in Senate question time and the comparatively smaller amounts given to these type of programs.
Updated
Here’s a slightly more lighthearted take on the budget lock-up from the Backburner on SBS:
Worrying news has emerged from the budget media lockdown, with reports confirming that treasurer Joe Hockey announced that the political journalists in attendance would be forced to fight to the death in armed combat, with the victor permitted to read the single, leather-bound copy of the federal budget.
‘Let the games begin!’ Hockey cried, swathed in a purple velvet robe and wearing an ornate crown made of human bones, as the enormous steel doors of the chamber swung closed.
And to all those political journalists involved: may the odds be ever in your favour.
Updated
It’s rather quiet in Canberra at the moment but there are plenty of barbs still being tossed around by those MPs and senators still in the chamber. Here’s some quite strong comments from Labor on the UWA research centre linked to Bjørn Lomborg:
A research centre linked to controversial Danish academic Bjørn Lomborg was earmarked for the University of Western Australia through a ‘corrupt’ process initiated by the prime minister’s office, parliament has been told.
The university backed out of the proposal, which was to have been funded by the federal government, after protests by staff and students.
The West Australian Labor MP Alannah MacTiernan said on Tuesday that science has been the big loser under the Abbott government.
She said it was curious that the government had found $4m for the “Australian consensus centre”, a thinktank which had at its heart a commitment to cherrypick the scientific evidence which argued against urgent action on climate change.
Updated
The House of Representatives is running through a number of reports that are being commended to the house. Dan Tehan has just been speaking about the tabling of the parliamentary joint committee of intelligence and security report on the impact of data retention laws on journalists’ sources.
It’s not much of a report. The inquiry never actually got under way. The federal government agreed to make amendments to introduce a new type of “journalist information warrant” that forces law enforcement agencies to get warrants to access journalists’ phone and web records. The amendments secured the support of Labor to pass the controversial laws.
Here’s a short statement from Tehan on the tabling of the report:
Since the referral of that inquiry, however, amendments were made to that bill to introduce a journalist information warrant and the establishment of a public interest monitor.
The number of journalist information warrants and the number of authorisations issued under those warrants will be included in an annual report.
Given these developments the committee determined to conclude the formal inquiry on the matter. Mr Speaker, I commend the report to the house.
Updated
Just to recap on the progress of the changes to Norfolk Island’s governance framework. The bill passed the House of Representatives a little earlier today. Here’s AAP’s take on what the changes will mean:
Norfolk Island, Australia’s only self-governing offshore territory, will be stripped of its parliament, and wide-ranging powers will be handed to Canberra.
The historic change, which passed the lower house with Labor’s support on Tuesday, means the 1,800 islanders will be required to pay Australian taxes from July next year.
In return they will be entitled to social security payments, Medicare and the pharmaceutical benefits scheme.
“These changes deliver equity to Norfolk Island and ensure residents have access to essential services that all Australians deserve,” the federal territories minister, Jamie Briggs, told parliament.
Updated
Labor MP Matt Thistlethwaite has taken a few jabs at Scott Morrison and his rather unfortunate comparison with Joe Hockey to Gold Coast NRL player Greg Bird. Morrison said he actually meant to say Cronulla player Jack Bird (#UpCronulla)
Thistlethwaite has helpfully explained why exactly this reference is a little problematic:
Greg Bird was recently fined for urinating on a police car on the weekend of his wedding.
Apparently it put a dampener on the festivities.
Watch out for those birds.
Meanwhile, what’s happening in the budget lock-up? We can’t tell you. Because we don’t know. It’s a little like the mafia: once you go in you can never get out.
But here’s our brick budget to give you an idea of what is probably happening. Brick Daniel Hurst and Brick Katharine Murphy are speaking to Brick Joe Hockey. Probably about how much bricks cost. Or paid parental leave.
Updated
That’s it for question time now. We’re moving on to matters of public importance in the House of Representatives. Bill Shorten is proposing that the house discuss the “government’s failure to act in the national interest by protecting Australia’s standard of living”.
Shorten wants to play budget bingo.
Joe Hockey said four times last year ... I bet he says it more times this year.
Updated
Labor is now asking the prime minister why the government is ripping $6,000 a year from the typical family budget?
Abbott responds with a rather withering glare that looks tougher than Bob Carr’s steel-cut oats.
This is the opposition’s problem. They have not moved on. They are still fighting the battle of last year’s budget. They are incapable of understanding that we are building, we are building on the successes of last year to give tonight a budget for confidence, a budget for middle Australia, and above all else, madam speaker, a budget for fairness.
Updated
What could these two be thinking about? Childcare? Education? The prospects of the Sharks in the next NRL season? We can only guess.
Scott Morrison has just responded to a Dorothy Dixer from his own party about the families package.
We’re investing $3.5 billion in lower- and middle-income families to ensure that they get better childcare support to keep them in work ... The shift in thinking about childcare as a facilitator to workforce participation rather than welfare is essential for the sustainability of Australia’s economic future.
Updated
A question from Clive Palmer now on bankruptcy laws to help prevent businesses from closing down by adopting a model similar to the US.
The deputy prime minister, Warren Truss, says he should take a look at the budget tonight.
As a result of our budget initiatives, there will be more opportunities for businesses to do well. More opportunities for business to be optimistic about its future, to employ more people.
Now the honourable member has referred to the US chapter 11 system and that is a system that has attracted quite a bit of attention also in other countries. Now we have a taxation review coming up, we are looking at a whole range of measures in that regard and I have no doubt at all that the chapter 11 proposals in the US will be a part of any consideration of that nature.
Updated
Chris Bowen is now asking the prime minister why he described a deficit of $24bn as a budget emergency, and what he would now call such a budget?
Abbott says the deficit is Labor’s legacy. But this budget is “a credible path back to surplus”.
Updated
Shorten going again on paid parental leave. This time he asks why Abbott is undermining the scheme.
He also asked – as an aside – why the “wannabe treasurer” (Scott Morrison) keeps accusing mums of being rorters on Sky News.
The prime minister responds:
Madam Speaker, our most urgent priority when it comes to benefits for families is an improved childcare system as part of our jobs for families package. This isn’t just good policy for families, although it certainly is good policy for families, it is strong economic policy. That’s what it is.
Updated
Well. Question time hour in the House of Representatives has become a little less than an hour. In fact it’s looking like we’re getting closer to 20 minutes. If we’ll even get there.
There have been a number of condolence motions, and we’re only getting under way right now.
Bill Shorten is first up:
First the PM told Australians that paid parental leave will be introduced over his dead body. Then the PM told Australians that he was committed to his gold-plated paid parental leave scheme. Now the PM’s cuts to paid parental leave will leave 80,000 mums worse off every year. So when it comes to paid parental leave Australians just want to know, PM, what do you actually believe today?
Tony Abbott responds:
Abbott: I am very committed to paid parental leave. I’ve actually got quite a few political bruises as a result of my commitment to paid parental leave. But Madam Speaker, the important thing is to do what’s right for these times. And something that might have been right under different circumstances is not necessarily right in these circumstances. I want to say, Madam Speaker, that this budget will be measured, responsible and above all else fair.
Updated
Senator Wright is asking a supplementary: Why does Tony Abbott use the phrase “death cult” in reference to Isis? Is the government more concerned with polling data than making Australians safer?
Abetz:
We make no apologies for calling these evil elements a death cult. When you line up Christians and behead them on video, when you rape women and say it’s OK ... you know what, that is a death cult. And I don’t think any Australian would disagree with the use of that terminology.
Updated
Senator Penny Wright is now asking about the $450m for Australia’s spy agencies.
Why is only a minuscule portion, $34m, going to community cohesion programs?
Eric Abetz responds:
If there is one duty of a national government it is one to protect its borders from external aggression.
I make no apology for this government being absolutely committed to protect its citizens and residents from terrorism and terrorism attacks.
Of course everybody wants social cohesion. We all support social cohesion.
Updated
Just switching to Senate question time for a moment. Eric Abetz is firing back at senator Kim Carr’s questions, which have a particular leadership flavour.
I don’t know what the treasurer’s going to say tonight but I know I’m against it. That is the attitude of the Australian Labor party on the eve of the budget.
Carr is now asking whether Abetz believes Scott Morrison will be the next “conservative leader” of Australia.
Abetz isn’t biting.
The good news is that they are well and truly satisfied with the leadership of the prime minister, and he will do a fantastic job into this election and after.
Carr is now asking about a GQ article on Malcolm Turnbull’s prospects as leader.
Abetz returns the serve:
I suspect that senator Carr’s avid reading of GQ is an indication of his lack of IQ.
Updated
Question time is about to begin in federal parliament.
Just before it begins, the prime minister, Tony Abbott, is noting the death of Peter Alexander Walsh AO, a former West Australian senator.
He was, madam speaker, an iconoclast. He was impatient of waste and scornful of policies to enrich sectional interests at the expense of the taxpayer.
Updated
What is the budget lock-up?
The budget lock-up is a strange tradition that has evolved to become a bedrock of Australian politics.
What it involves is several hundred journalists, politicians and advocates entering a room. This room has many smaller rooms that different tribes and factions will split off into.
Once inside all these people are unable to leave, and must marinate there together for the next six hours until 7.30pm. They are given paper copies of the budget, and will furiously write and report on what the budget contains to explain to all their readers and viewers. This information can only be reported once the lock-up ends.
There is probably a quote from John-Paul Sartre that explains exact what this state of affairs tells us about the human condition. I’m not sure what that would be, but I’m open to suggestions.
If you prefer your lock-up explainers with a little less existentialism, here’s a helpful video the ABC produced last year:
Updated
The budget lock-up begins
It’s all happening here in Canberra. Our team is now heading in to the budget lock-up area, where it will spend the next six hours combing through the federal government’s financial plans for the nation. We’ve even got our resident cartoonist, First Dog on the Moon, along for the ride.
Last-minute tweet before 6hrs w/out phones&internet. Follow @GuardianAus #Budget2015 live blog! http://t.co/G2Fgt8VKll w/ @FarrellPF #budget
— Dave Earley (@earleyedition) May 12, 2015
I’m going in to the budget lockup. I may be some time.
— Mr Onthemoon (@firstdogonmoon) May 12, 2015
Off to #Budget2015 lock-up. See you on the other side.
— Daniel Hurst (@danielhurstbne) May 12, 2015
The lock up will end at 7.30pm, at which point we’ll be delivering our full coverage.
On the outside I will be here to keep you updated on events in parliament, along with my colleague Shalailah Medhora.
Updated
Here’s a little more from the joint party room meeting briefing from my colleague Shalailah Medhora:
The prime minister said during the meeting that the government had bitten off more than it could chew in last year’s budget, but added that this year’s process was much better.
He personally thanked the treasurer, Joe Hockey, saying he did an ‘absolutely outstanding job’.
Abbott called the budget ‘user-friendly’ and said that it was not about ‘splashing cash’, but about ‘giving people back their money’.
Updated
Foreign affairs minister says no cuts to overall foreign aid
My colleague Shalailah Medhora has just been to the Coalition’s joint party room meeting briefing. The foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, confirmed during the meeting there would be no additional cuts to overall foreign aid in the budget. But the allocation of those funds would be shifted. Bishop said that some south-east Asian programs would be cut, with the exception of Cambodia. The Pacific program will always remain intact.
Here’s how the Pacific aid budget has changed over time.
Updated
There’s some nice budget nostalgia here in these posts from Canberra Insider:
Treasurer Paul Keating's 1984 budget speech pic.twitter.com/gqi9BJrZYY
— Canberra Insider (@CanberraInsider) May 12, 2015
Treasurer Harold Holt about to enter the House of Representatives to deliver his budget speech, 1963 pic.twitter.com/j28HXrarv8
— Canberra Insider (@CanberraInsider) May 11, 2015
The first Commonwealth budget, 1901 pic.twitter.com/pDGcxP6lqa
— Canberra Insider (@CanberraInsider) May 11, 2015
I don’t know about you, but vertical fiscal imbalances always make me feel a little emotional.
Here’s an official transcript from the Treasurer’s office about the rather interesting press conference that occurred this morning.
Government members are generally referenced by name. Reporters are cited as “journalists”. Apparently those seeking selfies are just known as “selfie girl”.
JOURNALIST:
Where are the offsets coming from?
SELFIE GIRL:
Hello. Can I please have a selfie?
TREASURER:
Sure.
SELFIE GIRL:
Yes!
TREASURER:
I don’t want to feel like Kevin Rudd here [laughter]
SELFIE GIRL:
Thank you so much. Good luck with everything tonight.
TREASURER:
Thank you. It wasn’t a set up [laughter]. Never met her before in my life.
Indeed
The bill being debated now in the House of Representatives would effectively abolish Norfolk Island’s parliament and replace it with a regional council. It’s caused a lot of concern for some locals on the island, who are unhappy with the proposal.
My colleague Monica Tan filed this yesterday to canvass some of the responses from those on the island:
Norfolk Island’s chief minister has pleaded with federal MPs and senators not to abolish the island’s parliament and replace it with a regional council.
The house of representatives will consider the Norfolk Island legislation amendment bill on Tuesday. If passed, the island’s nine-member parliament will be replaced with a local council.
But the island’s chief minister, Lisle Snell, led a four-party delegation to Canberra on Monday to make the case against the proposed legislation.
“We are not a third world country,” Snell told Guardian Australia. “Norfolk Island prides itself on being able to provide facilities equal if not better to any remote community in Australia.”
Home to 1,800 residents, the small island is located in the Pacific Ocean, 1,400km east of the New South Wales north coast.
The island’s distinct history sees over a third of residents tracing ancestry back to the mutineers from the British merchant vessel HMS Bounty in 1789 and a group of Tahitian women, who first settled in Pitcairn Island, alongside descendants of more recent immigrants from Australia and New Zealand.
In non-budget related news, the Palmer United Party has just announced that it will no longer contest state elections.
Clive Palmer said in a release issued today the party would be concentrating efforts at the federal level, and would be contesting all seats at the next election.
We believe federal parliament is where the Palmer United party can make the most valuable contribution so that is where we will be focusing our attention in the future.
Updated
And here’s our crack budget team hard at work.
Updated
The House of Representatives is now moving to debate the Norfolk Island legislation amendment bill 2015.
Over in the Senate there’s a few interesting items listed for the order of business today.
Quite a few inquiry reports into legislation before the Senate have been put forward for extensions – this includes a bill that proposes new powers to use force in immigration detention, a bill enhancing biometric gathering powers and the private health insurance rebate bill.
Updated
Opposition leader Bill Shorten is now speaking on the Anzac centenary.
We all know country and coastal towns where the list of names etched into the weathered white stones seems impossibly long ... Madam speaker, there is no one left amongst us who knows the courage and chaos of April 25.
The Anzacs will always speak to us, and for who we are, and for who we wish to be.
As a new generation, let’s use the centenary of Anzac day to give new meaning to our most solemn annual promise: lest we forget.
Updated
The prime minister, Tony Abbott, is now delivering a motion to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the landings at Gallipoli in the House of Representatives.
Madame speaker at Gallipoli … and at other points around the globe as well as here at home in Australia the work of appropriately marking the century of the Gallipoli landings has been exacting.
He has praised the work of the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Australian War Memorial, the Department of Foreign Aaffairs and other government agencies for their work in the centenary.
On Anzac Day we remembers the original Anzacs, and all who have followed in this path.
Our nation is just not a place on a map, or a mass of people who happen to live somewhere. Our nation is shaped by our collective memory.
On Anzac Day this year and every year the pact between the past and present is renewed for the future.
Updated
Hi folks,
I’ll be continuing our politics coverage throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Katharine Murphy is about to join the rest of my colleagues shortly in the Thunderdome where they will be preparing for the budget announcement at 7:30pm this evening.
So stick around – there’s plenty happening in parliament this afternoon with the House of Representatives and the Senate sitting throughout the day.
Updated
The almost lunchtime summary
Let’s take stock of the morning before the budget evening which followed budget eve which was yesterday and last night.
The prime minister right now is delivering a motion in the House about the centenary of the landings at Gallipoli.
Lunchtime, Tuesday:
- The government fired off its last remaining pre-budget newslines – a small business package (on which detail is a bit scant); and new spending on national security, which covers the costs telcos will now have to bear for storing our private metadata for two years.
- The treasurer, Joe Hockey, issued a broad hint that tonight’s deficit will come in lower than market expectations, but we’ll have to wait for the actual number until this evening.
- He also said it would be ridiculous if business dropped its paid parental leave schemes in response to the government’s plan to stop so-called “double dipping”.
- The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, was presented with a cake for his birthday and presented the government with his analysis that a budget isn’t fair just because you say it’s fair. It has to actually, be, fair.
- Labor also said it would scuttle an almost deal on the RET if the government didn’t drop a requirement to have reviews every two years.
Over to Paul.
See you in the evening times.
Updated
Just some housekeeping now because very shortly, I’m going to have to hand over the keys to the Politics Live bus to my colleague, Paul Farrell.
Paul is going to take you through the parliamentary afternoon in Canberra, while I make my way to the lock-up to be briefed about the budget. Do stay on board, there is not only the joys of question time to come – but you don’t want to miss it in the event the government decides to use budget day to take out the trash. It has been known to happen.
I’ll be back later on this evening to deliver Budget Live – our rolling coverage of everything you need to know about the 2015 economic statement, and possibly some other things that you may not need to know.
I’ll be back shortly with a summary, then I’ll leave you in Paul’s capable hands.
We’ll take this as a comment.
Autumn at Parliament House - always spectacular pic.twitter.com/WlIMJRa9LI
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) May 12, 2015
Independent senator Jacqui Lambie has some ideas for the social services minister, Scott Morrison, when it comes to childcare. The package is not quite hitting the spot right now.
Updated
We couldn’t resist.
Updated
Q: Surely it would be better for the sector and investors to reach a deal as quickly as possible?
Mark Butler:
Of course it would be. That is why we have been working hard to get this deal. I thought we had a position of agreement based on the 33,000 gigawatt hour large scale target. What the government should do is drop this silliness of re-arguing the case on the reviews which were dropped months before. Get back to the real game which is to find a revised large scale Renewable Energy Target which we have agreed can be 33,000 gigawatt hours, put it into the parliament, and let the industry get back on with building new projects and creating new jobs.
Drop reviews and wood waste burning or the RET deal is off
It is actually a normal parliamentary day in Canberra. The Labor caucus this morning has come to a position on the long running saga around the renewable energy target (RET).
The shadow climate change minister, Mark Butler, is telling reporters in the parliamentary courtyard Labor won’t cop the government undertaking two-year reviews. He says two-year reviews go right to the heart of investor confidence.
Butler says he also doesn’t like the inclusion of native wood waste burning.
I want to make Labor’s position clear, unless the government drops the idea of two-year reviews, which they had dropped earlier in public by minister Hunt and minister Macfarlane.
Unless the government drops that this deal cannot proceed.
The Labor caucus has reaffirmed a long standing Labor position to oppose the insertion of native wood waste burning into the renewable energy scheme and if the government proceeds with this aspect of the position they outlined on Friday, we will oppose that vigorously in the House of Representatives and in the Senate.
Updated
Treasurer calls business ridiculous
I’m not sure I caught this in my first report of the Hockey press conference earlier on. I think I was thrown by selfie girl. The treasurer was asked about reports I’ve pointed you earlier today about business dumping their paid parental leave schemes if the government moves to end so-called “double dipping”.
On an ordinary person’s analysis of how people respond to signals and incentives, this would seem a rational move by businesses. But perhaps provocatively given the government didn’t consult before moving ahead with the double dip saving – the treasurer says this would be ridiculous.
That’s ridiculous, that’s just plain ridiculous. In they have a PPL scheme in place now, then they’re doing it for all the right reasons. If they’re taking it away they’re doing it for all the wrong reasons.
Q: It’s a disincentive for women who could get a top up.
No, it isn’t. It’s no disincentive.
Updated
Hockey’s news line this morning at his press conference concerned the deficit printing lower than market expectations.
It’s a funny formulation this – we beat the markets. The test is generally whether you come in better than treasury expectations. But whatever floats your boat. Perhaps the government will produce a number doing both.
The Australian reported this morning the deficit in tonight’s budget will be less than $40bn, but there will be a “blowout” in debt.
Part of the reason for “happier deficit times” is a turnaround in the iron ore price. The government has over recent months been pointing to lower iron ore prices as a reason why the deficit picture might look ugly this evening, but those commodity prices, they go up and then they go down and then they go up. It’s the way of the world.
Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen isn’t shouting a round in the front bar.
Well, the party that told us about a ‘debt and deficit disaster’ and a ‘budget emergency’ wants us to celebrate a $40bn deficit apparently. Of course, the deficit will be hostage to iron ore prices because the government has put up the white flag on any long term plans to get the budget deficit under control.
We’ve been out there outlining plans over the decade for more savings than spending but the government has simply given up the fight.
Updated
The Shorten regime has a new rule: no knives in the Labor caucus room.
Happy birthday. Forty eight I think.
Reader Alastair Lawrie has a theory on why no candles.
@murpharoo Cake might have lacked candles because using them in Parl House brings the fire brigade - as I (involuntarily) discovered in 2010
— Alastair Lawrie (@alawriedejesus) May 12, 2015
Updated
There will be lots of over-hyped nonsense about watershed turning points and key tests associated with tonight’s budget coverage. Like most things said in politics and in commentary about politics, this is part true, and part manufactured absurdity.
It is true to say that the government faces the test of turning around its poor standing with voters – and Labor faces a dexterity test. The government is pushing reset on its political position. Labor will have to work out whether to roll with the tide to some extent, or to differentiate sharply.
There’ll be a number of ways we can measure how the various political strategies play out. It’s interesting that Tony Abbott has clearly signalled he’s open to alternate ideas about savings measures to pay for policies like the childcare package. The tactical thinking behind this is pretty obvious. Abbott is trying to project flexible in an effort to tempt Labor to be rigid.
The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, was asked on television this morning whether Labor would respond positively to this new flexibility from Tony Abbott.
Q: They’re open to negotiation, the prime minister made that clear. Will you be constructive in trying to find the money to pay for it?
We are always happy to talk to the government, but this is extraordinary Kieran. The budget has not yet been brought down and the treasurer, the official treasurer, the man who officially has the title, is bringing down the budget tonight, and the prime minister is out there saying ‘it doesn’t really matter what the budget says, we’ll negotiate it all. What’s in the budget mightn’t be what we do’. This is extraordinary, to see a budget unravelling like this, before it is has been formally released by the treasurer, is something quite extraordinary.
Q: So will you negotiate?
Well we’re always happy to talk to them …
Q: Have you got any ideas?
We’ve outlined considerable savings. We will continue to be putting our ideas and our plans out there.
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Back to the stooge-ing. Look natural, fellas. Just talk amongst yourselves.
Oh look, a budget. Is it budget day?
Stooge stocks are certainly rising from that session Mike Bowers is fond of calling peak awkward.
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Mr Bowers reports the Labor leader’s birthday cake lacked candles and a knife. Best to avoid all weaponry. These are uncertain times.
Labor's framing for tonight: this is just a temporary retreat, fairness has to mean something
The king of zing says the government is trying to look like it’s changed but it hasn’t. Shorten says the government has flicked a switch to fairness, but fair has to mean something.
If these people could manage to get through these changes (from the 2014 budget) again, they do not resile from what they have said. They do not ever say they were wrong and they have changed their minds, they have just taken a temporary retreat while they regoup and regather.
I do not believe the 2015 budget will be about lasting fairness. It will be about a prime minister and a treasurer not focusing on the next 10 years in the future – it will be about them focusing on keeping their own jobs to the end of the year.
Then, there is cake.
It’s Tuesday, so the Labor caucus is meeting downstairs. I gather it’s the Labor leader, Bill Shorten’s, birthday. Right now he’s talking to colleagues, explaining the opposition’s strategic brilliance.
Twelve months ago to the day we stood here and we said that we would fight, that Labor would fight, for fairness. And I can report to you that 12 months on, we have most certainly fought for fairness, for all Australians, you should all be very pleased with what you’ve accomplished.
What I want to say to you today is that with the wisdom of hindsight, there are some who say it was always inevitable that Tony Abbott’s budget would be defeated. Let us not rewrite history. It was not inevitable 12 months ago that the budget of unfairness, arguably the most famous or infamous budget of unfairness in parliamentary history, it was by no means a sure thing it would be defeated. Twelve months ago, they were flocking to say this was a great budget, this was a budget for its times.
The truth is it’s a budget for the rubbish bin.
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Resident Senate ‘feral’ Jacqui Lambie isn’t excited. She’s sympathetic. She senses a dark and cunning plot. Lambie regularly sees unfair and unnatural intrigue, but this morning it’s a specific plot.
Lambie:
I don’t know what little stunt they’re trying to pull up there with [Scott] Morrison, but my heart goes out to Joe – I think they’ve treated him really badly.
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I’m excited. We’re excited.
Hockey’s still at it with the photo ops. “We’re excited” is directed to the finance minister, Mathias Cormann, who is sitting beside him while he pretends to read the budget papers.
It’s hard to know whether Cormann is, actually, excited. He’s a phlegmatic sort of fellow.
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The first Commonwealth budget, 1901 pic.twitter.com/pDGcxP6lqa
— Canberra Insider (@CanberraInsider) May 11, 2015
Them were the days.
Sticking to the plan
I want to pick up a line from Hockey’s brief press conference this morning because it’s worth breaking out.
Now, we’re sticking to our plan. Our plan which last year was focused on strengthening the bottom line, importantly building enough resilience into the Australian economy so that it can cope with whatever headwinds might come along.
This observation from reader Luke Miller, on Twitter.
@murpharoo You mention Hockey/Morrison talk has overshadowed budget. Perhaps ppl have stopped listening to this govt due to inconsistency.
— Luke Miller (@dodgyville) May 11, 2015
Luke makes an excellent point.
Just think about what Hockey said about sticking to the plan.
It’s reasonable to ask, what plan? The plan from last year, which has been comprehensively binned? The signature paid parental leave scheme that’s now a budget saving? The budget emergency? I could go on and on, and it’s a problem for the government trying to land this budget.
This time last year Joe Hockey told voters of his first budget:
The days of borrow and spend must come to an end.
The time to contribute and build has begun.
What will he say tonight?
I'm a selfie girl. In a selfie wooorrld.
Possibly the most gratifying moment for a bruised ego since Sally Field, winning an Oscar, for Places in the Heart.
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I’ll bring you some pictures of the circus out front in a bit, but let’s track back to childcare for a moment. Blogans with me yesterday will know that the package outlined by the government over this past weekend has been pulled apart pretty comprehensively over the past 48 hours or so.
The Senate ferals are upset that the package is built on family tax benefit savings worth several billion, and business has been taken aback by the government’s decision to end what it terms “double dipping” with paid parental leave. At the moment, mums can access 18 weeks’ pay at the minimum wage, or about $11,500, as well as the parental leave scheme provided by their employers.
The Australian Financial Review has business leaders warning they will dump their schemes if the government proceeds along this path. Transfield chairperson, Diane Smith-Gander, is quoted saying the “disappointing” change would widen the superannuation gap between men and women at a time when the government insisted people needed to be independent in retirement. The public PPL scheme does not cover super payments.
Diane Smith-Gander:
To have [Mr Hockey] characterise the topping up of what he himself identified as an inadequate parental leave scheme as double-dipping is unbelievable.
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There’s a prequel to the day in the life of #BrickJoe.
As the treasurer made his preparations for bed last night, he glanced out the window in the hope of seeing the moon.
What he saw was a prime minister combining exercise with close monitoring ahead of B-Day.
#BrickJoe could not believe his eyes.
So imagine his surprise when #BrickTones doubled back with #BrickSoMo, dinking.
Dinky dink. Ambition never sleeps.
Here’s the tail end of the Hockey press conference.
Q: The earn and learn proposal, the dole changes from the last budget, can we expect to see that proposal in this budget or a significantly changed version?
You’ll see a changed version of that.
Q: In what way?
You will see tonight.
Q: Where are you going to find the offsets for 1.5% business tax extension?
I know you’re very excited about the budget, so am I because it’s great for Australia.
Q: This is a bit patronising to come out and not give us any details.
I just did, if you listen to my words I gave you a good steer on where the budget deficit is going and it’s improving every year and it’s better than market expectations.
Q: Under $40bn?
OK, thank you.
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Selfie girl is a year-eleven student from Hunter Valley Grammar. Anika Buining. Just for the record.
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A young woman burst into the Hockey press conference for a selfie. Pushing aside burly blokes with TV cameras takes some muscle, but she’s done it. She’s brandishing a phone.
Can I please have a selfie?
Hockey:
Sure. Yes!
Young woman.
Thank you so much! Good luck with everything tonight.
Hockey:
Thank you.
It wasn’t a set up. Never met her before in my life.
[I’d say something about the perverse consequences of building security, but I never go there, so I won’t.]
Hockey says the deficit will be lower than expectations
The real Joe is undertaking his conversation out the front. There’s a news line on the deficit.
The budget is actually going to be focused on the issues that matter to Australians. We are are focused on strengthening the Australian economy, giving people the opportunity to get ahead, to have a go. Market expectations are for a budget deficit of around $40bn to $41bn, we’re going to beat that and we’re going to beat it every year.
We’re very focused on doing what is right for the Australian people to give people the chance to get ahead. Now, we’re sticking to our plan. Our plan which last year was focused on strengthening the bottom line, importantly building enough resilience into the Australian economy so that it can cope with whatever headwinds might come along.
The last 12 months we’ve seen significant challenges facing the Australian economy. The last 18 months we’ve had to write off $90bn of expected revenue but yet we are still on a credible trajectory back to surplus.
In fact the trajectory is no different to that that I announced at the end of last year. And we’re doing that despite all the different headwinds.
So this is delivering on what we’ve all been saying. It’s responsible, it’s measured and it’s fair and it’s going to be a big help for Australia’s small businesses and Australian families.
Q: Treasurer, are you saying the deficit will come in at figures projected in Myefo?
You will wait and see tonight but we are – we’re going to do better than market expectations.
Q: How can we judge the success of this budget? By opinion polls? The unemployment rate? Or any other measure, or all of the above?
Well, it will be judged by people on the basis of whether it is responsible, measured and fair and whether it is going to help to drive economic growth, help to stimulate the Australian economy but at the same time have a credible path back to surplus.
Q: Who will benefit from a tax cut in this budget?
Well, just wait and see.
Q: No, no, sorry, it’s just in the paper that sole traders, businesses, can you give us more detail, please?
What you will see is that we’re being very fair and focused on in particular helping small business to get ahead. To have a go.
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A day in the life of #BrickJoe
I could not love this more. Given so much about budget day is stooged, we thought we’d do our own #BrickStooging of a day in the life of the treasurer, Joe Hockey.
We start with the treasurer, slumbering under his Bart Simpson doona. Then the yoga routine, including an impressive plank pose, with teddy watching on, followed by his doorstop with journalists.
As I post this I’m watching the zoo of a photo opportunity underway outside.
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Good morning and welcome to Canberra’s day of days and night of nights and midnight of midnights.
It’s budget day, and I’m delighted to be with you.
This morning’s news cycle is the remnants of the budget childcare package, which got a thorough working over yesterday, and the last remaining pre-budget drops the government dishes out to try and frame its budget story.
This morning’s drops are a new $450m spend in the national security space. My colleague Daniel Hurst reports the government will provide $131m to telcos and internet service providers to help the industry adapt to Australia’s new data retention laws. “The funding – to be outlined in Tuesday night’s budget – forms part of a $450m security package “to strengthen intelligence capabilities and to counter extremist messaging”. The $450m is on top of the $630m four-year funding boost the government provided to police and security agencies for counter-terrorism activities in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December.
There’s also a small business package. The small business minister, Bruce Billson, a serial enthusiast, has told ABC radio this morning his budget measure is:
A delightful package, a delicious package ... showing respect and reward and encouragement for those small businesses that are crucial to jobs and economic growth.
That well known business organ, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, has the dropped delight. “More than 1.7m tradies, sole operators, partnerships and a range of other unincorporated small businesses will be given a 1.5% tax cut — or equivalent deductions — under an unprecedented economic jobs stimulus package at the heart of today’s federal budget.”
Unprecedented? Ok then. Happy, happy days.
The treasurer, Joe Hockey, is about to complete the annual budget ritual of pretending to walk into parliament to begin his long day when he’s actually been here since dawn. I should note that Hockey is also walking in a different entrance this year – the front door – because security arrangements prevent him walking with 100 of his closest camera wielding friends through the ministerial entrance. Lockdowns or not, one must walk purposefully for the cameras. One must.
For his sake, we can only hope this stooged photo opportunity works better than the other stooged efforts of the past few days, which have only fuelled the Hockey: Biggest Loser meme, which, bizarrely, has overshadowed the plethora of actual budget measures we have to talk about. If you were with me yesterday you’ll know I spent some time scratching my head about this. It’s a funny old dynamic, Hockey both deserves a bumpy ride because he’s a particularly unconvincing and once-over-lightly treasurer, and yet if you unpick facts and substance rather than amplify the completely obvious agendas of the other ambitious folks who’d like his job, he doesn’t really deserve the complete smashing he’s copped the past few days.
Probably I’m just being a curmudgeon*
*a bad-tempered, difficult, cantankerous person.
I’m certainly over the gratuitous distortions of the daily news cycle.
Right, enough raving, by me at least. Why don’t you all get raving in the comments thread, which waits for your insights. As usual if you want to shout at Mr Bowers and I on Twitter, you can find us @murpharoo and @mpbowers
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