How does the EU currently view Brexit?
Not everyone is as blunt as Germany’s Europe minister, Michael Roth, who described Brexit as “a big shitshow”. But the EU is frustrated and wearied by the impasse in British politics. “There is no plan on how Great Britain sees its future, it is more like a civil war is happening,” said one diplomat after MPs rejected various Brexit options on Monday. Following the vote, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said no deal looked “very likely”. Guy Verhofstadt, the European parliament’s Brexit spokesman, said a hard Brexit – meaning no deal – was “nearly inevitable”. But the EU still hopes to avoid no deal, which is seen as the worst possible outcome.
What happens now?
Theresa May will have to inform the EU of her plans before an emergency Brexit summit on 10 April. To prepare for that summit, Brussels wants to know by Monday at the latest what the prime minister has in mind, although EU officials are resigned to the fact that the UK government tends to hand in its homework at the last minute.
There are three options. If the two sides cannot agree a way forward, the UK will leave the EU on 12 April without a deal. If MPs vote for May’s deal, the UK would almost certainly be allowed to delay Brexit until 22 May, in theory allowing parliament time to pass the withdrawal act bill (although it is not clear if that six-week extension is really long enough). But EU insiders think a third option is most likely: a long extension of article 50.
(April 10, 2019) Plan or extension agreed by EU27?
Having asked for a further Article 50 extension until 30 June, Theresa May will present whatever deal or plan she has reached with Jeremy Corbyn and parliament to the European Council. EU leaders would decide how long any further extension might run, but there is no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree.
(April 12, 2019) Possible no deal departure?
With no other significant developments, this would still be the date that the UK leaves the EU by international law. However, Yvette Coooper's bill in parliament is attempting to legislate to rule this out.
(May 23, 2019) European parliamentary elections
The EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been delayed beyond Theresa May's new proposed date of 30 June, then the UK could still hold European elections on Thursday 23 May.
(June 30, 2019) Possible departure with a deal?
If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, and is approved by the European Council, then this could be the new scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. Crucially it is before the new European parliament sits, meaning the UK would not have had to participate in the elections.
(July 1, 2019) Conservative leadership election?
Theresa May is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on whatever date, having agreed that somebody else should lead the next phase of negotiations. This will trigger a Conservative leadership election. There has been some suggestion that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.
(April 10, 2020) Possible departure after a 'Flextension'
Donald Tusk has proposed a flexible extension, allowing the UK to leave the EU at some point before a cut-off date of 10 April 2020, at the point where the UK parliament can ratify an orderly departure.
Could the EU refuse an extension?
All 27 member states must agree unanimously to extend Brexit talks. The EU27 could refuse, but that is unlikely. Despite the no-deal soundbites, no EU insider thinks the EU would refuse an extension if the UK asked for one. France is seen as the most reluctant to allow a long extension, but Emmanuel Macron is not expected to veto a long delay. Germany, backed by many in central and eastern Europe, will hold open the door until the UK slams it shut.
“You have a duty of care in the EU not to kick the UK out against its will,” one source said. “So probably [EU leaders] would be willing to accept a poor excuse [for delaying Brexit] if all the conditions are met.”
How long could that extension be?
Nine months, one year, maybe longer. Several ideas have been floated, but nobody knows. EU leaders will take the decision next Wednesday, based on what the UK asks for. But senior EU officials are concerned that having a (potentially) obstreperous UK in Brexit limbo inside the EU for 21 months – the upper limit of Brexit delays – could destroy the EU from the inside.
What does an extension mean for the UK?
In one sense, nothing changes. The UK would remain a full EU member with the rights and duties that go with it. For some member states that is the problem. Diplomats say the UK would have to sign a “gentleman’s agreement” that it would not obstruct negotiations on the next seven-year EU budget or the process of choosing new EU leaders that gets under way this summer. The UK would have to pay its dues into the EU annual budget and take part in European elections.
Is there a way to get out of the elections?
No. Gordon Brown is the latest British politician to argue that “the problems raised by the European election can be negotiated away”. The former prime minister proposed indirect elections, where a delegation of MPs would be sent from Westminster to the European parliament. This system has been used for new EU member states joining out of an election year, but is not so easy for a departing member state. Such a fix would require a treaty change ratified by all 28 member states, a process that could take more than two years.
EU officials will insist on the elections taking place, because they fear an onslaught of legal cases. Any citizen could challenge EU decisions in court, arguing that the union was not democratically constituted in line with its treaties if the UK had not taken part in European elections.
So no deal is off the table?
Not yet. No deal is the legal default, so cannot be ruled out. While the EU would probably grant an extension, officials in Brussels are not certain the prime minister will ask for one. EU leaders will not force the UK into a long extension if it does not seek one or refuses to meet the terms, say people close to the process. Some fear May would placate her party over taking part in European elections. “If the prime minister said she wanted a no deal, we wouldn’t be able to stop her jumping off the cliff,” the EU diplomat said.
Another concern is that the prime minister may be too weak to come up with a credible plan or to implement it. “Is the British political system still strong enough to signal to European leaders what they want?” the diplomat asked. “That is an open question.”
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