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Andrew McGarry

Brownlow Medal guide — from Lachie Neale to Clayton Oliver and Touk Miller, the main contenders and likely team top vote-getters

With the two grand finalists decided, the attention of the AFL now turns to the Brownlow Medal, and who will win the league's best and fairest for 2022.

So, who are the main contenders for tonight's prize — and who are in the mix to top the vote count for the 18 AFL clubs?  

As usual, midfielders have an in-built advantage. The last pure non-midfielder to win the medal was Gavin Wanganeen (back pocket) in 1993, although Sydney's Adam Goodes won in 2003 and 2006 playing to varying degrees in ruck and midfield.

Looking at recent times, 20 votes means a great year, 25 votes means you are in contention, and — aside from last year and a couple of other examples — 30 votes generally means you win the whole thing.

Realistically, there are half-a-dozen serious chances to win "Charlie"— they are marked with an asterisk below. But depending which pundit you ask, or predictor you prefer, you'll get a different answer about who comes out on top.

Adelaide Crows: Rory Laird

The Crows will not be taking away the Brownlow in 2022 — too few wins and a rebuilding side made that a very difficult ask.

Rory Laird's ability to be a ball magnet made him the eye-catcher for Adelaide, racking up 30+ disposals in 14 games this season, plus 40-plus against Gold Coast and Hawthorn.

He also had a 20-tackle game against Collingwood in round 18, and a 14-clearance performance against Geelong in round 11.

Brisbane Lions: Lachie Neale*

It's no real surprise that there is one candidate — and one only — for Brisbane in 2022.

Before torching the Tigers and Demons in the finals series, Neale showed why he is a huge chance to win his second medal, as the driving force behind the Lions midfield.

He averaged more than 16 contested possessions and 7.3 clearances a game during the home and away season, but it was more than sheer numbers, but his impact on the Lions.

When he was shut down, so was the team.

Unlike some of his rivals for the Brownlow, Neale has the advantage of not having too many teammates likely to take votes off him.

Carlton: Patrick Cripps*

Last year, Sam Walsh produced an incredible year to finish fourth with 30 votes. He had a more than solid 2022, but with the Carlton resurgence, another Blues midfielder became the main man for voting purposes.

The main chance for the Blues is the skipper Patrick Cripps, who returned to his bullish best in 2022.

He was top three in the league in average contested possessions, clearances and stoppage clearances, and top-20 in average effective disposals a game, despite getting the majority of his touches when the heat was on.

He is highly likely to be the leader after three rounds, and he could get close to 20 votes before the bye.

Can he push to 30? We will see.   

Collingwood: Jack Crisp and Nick Daicos

It's hard to pick a leader for the Collingwood vote count for the Brownlow this year, and the reason isn't hard to find. Under Craig McRae, the Pies have shot to prominence, not on the back of any single player but thanks to a coherent team effort.

It could really be one of about four players who top the poll for the club. The most likely two are utility players Nick Daicos and Jack Crisp, who both spent time in defence and midfield.

As first years in the AFL go, Daicos's was one for the ages.

He won the Rising Star Award in a canter, and gave Magpie fans a real thrill — while Crisp's endless engine and run off half-back was augmented by the fact he beat his career best for inside 50s by nearly 25 entries.

Essendon: Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish

It's been a tough season for the Bombers, and it won't be a surprise that there is no candidate to win the medal.

As far as the club's top poller is concerned, it seems like a race in two between Essendon's two leading mids.

Zach Merrett did his best work late in the season while Darcy Parish hit the mark early on. Neither put together a stellar overall season, but they showed glimpses of their best.

Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw*

You could say that Nat Fyfe's injury misfortune was Andrew Brayshaw's opportunity this year for the Dockers — and the Freo number eight took hold of it with both hands.

In the absence of the Dockers' normal leader, Brayshaw stepped up in all areas, from guiding the play to getting clearances and contested footy.

He won the AFLPA Most Valuable Player award, showing how highly rated he is by his peers. Will the umpires have a similar view?

There's a chance they will — but a couple more wins for the Dockers would have helped his cause.

Geelong: Jeremy Cameron

As we've said, non-midfielders don't tend to win the Brownlow, except on rare occasions.

The last time a pure forward took out the medal was Tony Lockett for St Kilda in 1987.

It won't happen this year, either, but Geelong's Jeremy Cameron will be the highest vote-getter for the forwards, and he will be the main poller for the Cats.

A brilliant year has seen the former Giant come close to winning the Coleman Medal, but more than that it is the variety of goals he has kicked, and his ability to kick goals for his team at vital times that make him stand out.

Gold Coast: Touk Miller*

This year came close to a breakthrough for the Suns, who equalled their biggest-ever number of wins with 10, and looked a chance until late on to make it to a historic first finals series.

One of the main reasons for that was co-skipper Touk Miller.

Despite being the main target for opposition attention, he produced consistently great play through the season and was recognised as the joint winner of the AFL Coaches Association award.

He will poll well in nearly all of Gold Coast's wins, and he is a decent chance to finish top three, if not win the whole thing.

GWS: Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio

The Giants had a tough year, highlighted by the departure mid-season of coach Leon Cameron.

It was hard to find a regular winner for GWS, with star forward Toby Greene missing the first five rounds through suspension for bumping an umpire.

Sticking to the midfield it's the other usual suspects, Josh Kelly and former skipper Stephen Coniglio, who are most likely to top the poll for GWS — but they could well be 20 points off the winner. It's been that sort of year.

Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe

Last year, it was Tom Mitchell and then daylight when it came to Hawks polling Brownlow votes — but although the experienced midfielder is well-known to the umpires, he will not be dominating the voting this year.

In the first year of the Sam Mitchell coaching era, the Hawks had a new stand-out, a bullish, hard-tackling, contested ball-getter who kicked a few goals himself and set up many a Hawthorn attack.

Jai Newcombe is just 21, and he won't poll huge numbers for now — but if he stays healthy he might well be leading the voting for his side for some years to come.

Melbourne: Clayton Oliver* and Christian Petracca*

The Demons had a disappointing end to 2022, but recollect the fact they won their first 10 games of the year, and ended up with 16, and you realise why they are every chance to provide the Brownlow winner.

The double act of Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca will both poll well — and looking at it another way, take votes off each other.

This time around it is Oliver who is the most likely to take the medal for the Demons — consistently brilliant, the Dees' number 13 was a true stand-out in 2022 and could well have up to half a dozen maximum vote games. Whoever beats him will go close.

North Melbourne: Luke Davies-Uniacke

The Kangaroos won only two games for the season, so there won't be many votes to celebrate at Sunday's count.

Forward Nick Larkey booted six goals in the win over a depleted West Coast, and seven in a close loss to Sydney.

But on balance, the stand-out performer for the wooden-spooners was midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke, who got more of the ball and had the ability to drive the Kangaroos forward or take rare opportunities to score himself.

Port Adelaide: Connor Rozee

It was a disappointing year for the Power, despite getting within a couple of games of the finals despite starting 0-5.

Skipper Ollie Wines had a strong patch around mid-season where he could well win a few threes, but if you are looking for the top vote-getter at Port Adelaide, you can't go past the brilliant Connor Rozee.

Rozee's move into the middle in 2022 saw him up his game and produce more clearances, contested possessions and forward entries than ever before — and perhaps set up the Power midfield for the next few years.

Richmond: Dion Prestia 

Injury and form fluctuations had an impact on Richmond's performances in 2022, with the likes of Tom Lynch having quiet periods during the season.

The Tigers' top vote-getter is likely to be Dion Prestia, who despite only playing 18 games in the home-and-away season, led the team in total clearances and was equal-first in contested possessions. 

St Kilda: Jack Steele and Jack Sinclair 

St Kilda's middling year means there was no stand-out, in fact there are a handful of possible top vote-getters for the Saints.

But the two likeliest to top the poll are the ground-gaining rebounder — and this year's Saints' best-and-fairest — Jack Sinclair and skipper Jack Steele who had a strong start to the season before missing out through the middle rounds.

Sydney: Callum Mills

The hype has been big on Chad Warner through the season for obvious reasons — the young Swans midfielder was instrumental in a number of Sydney wins.

But for consistency throughout and as the overall stand-out, it's Callum Mills who is the pick to poll the most votes in red and white in 2022.

With his marks in the midfield and big tackling — fourth in the AFL — Mills helped shape the play in a huge year for the Swans. 

West Coast: Josh Kennedy

In his final season in the AFL, Eagles favourite Josh Kennedy showed he still was capable of kicking big bags.

His five goal-haul in the win over Essendon will get the three votes in round 15, and even though he could not get his team over the line against Adelaide in round 21, his eight-goal performance should get a two or a three.

That could well be enough in an awful season for the Eagles. 

Western Bulldogs: Josh Dunkley and Marcus Bontempelli

The Bulldogs are another team whose inconsistent season is mirrored by less-than-top performances from their leading players.

Last year, Marcus Bontempelli came second with 33 votes. This year, he may only get a little more than a third of that, but he will still be up near the top of the Bulldogs vote list.

The one who might beat him is Josh Dunkley, who was top-10 in the league for tackles and tackles inside forward 50, plus sixth in total score involvements.

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