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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Brown bounce may not be big enough to stop David Cameron

It's rare to find a poll that contains good news for all three political parties, but, according to one analysis, that's true of this survey from Ipsos Mori.

It's one of two polls out today. With everyone at Westminster still trying to assess whether Gordon Brown is getting a poll "bounce", they're both worth looking at.
First, Ipsos Mori. It shows the Tories on 45%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 14%. As Mike Smithson at PoliticalBetting says:

There is something for all three main parties in the poll. Labour have seen a dramatic improvement albeit from an awful position in September, the Tories are in the mid-40s while the Lib Dems show an increase.

The other poll is from YouGov and Channel 4 News and covers voters in Labour-held marginal constituencies.

It shows the Tories ahead of Labour by five points - a lead that would be good enough to give them a majority of 50 to 60, but well down on the 13-point lead they had when Channel 4 News did a similar survey in early September.

Both sets of figures suggest that Brown is enjoying a "bounce", but that it's not big enough to stop David Cameron winning.

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