In a provocative new forecast sparking widespread debate, white British citizens could become a minority in the UK within the next 40 years, according to a study by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University. The analysis, based on official census data and population trends, raises questions about the nation's ability to absorb mass immigration and manage what experts are calling an unprecedented demographic shift.
White British Could Become a Minority by 2063
Professor Goodwin's study, as reported by the Daily Mail and The Telegraph, suggests that white British citizens—currently comprising around 73% of the population—could decline to just 57% by 2050. By 2063, they may no longer represent the majority.
The forecast draws on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and historic census records. Goodwin, who is also an honorary professor at Kent University, said the report raises important questions about the UK's capacity to integrate immigrants and manage the consequences of such dramatic population changes.
New Immigration Laws Under Review
The report comes as Prime Minister Keir Starmer promises to reduce net migration by 2029. However, these long-term projections suggest the effects of current and past immigration trends will continue to reshape the UK for decades, regardless of short-term policy interventions.
In response, the government has introduced new immigration laws aimed at tightening citizenship requirements. Yet critics argue that more concrete action will be needed to alter the demographic trajectory outlined in Goodwin's report.
Demographic Shifts: Who's Driving the Change?
Muslims currently account for approximately 7% of the UK population. By 2050, this share is expected to rise to 11%, with further increases to 15% by 2075 and 19% by the end of the century. Non-white ethnic groups as a whole are projected to make up 35% of the population by 2050, 48% by 2075, and 59% by 2100.
'What these projections show is that the UK is currently on course to experience enormous and historically unprecedented changes in the composition of its population,' said Goodwin. 'By the end of the current century, most of the people on these islands will not be able to trace their roots in this country back more than one or two generations.'
A Pattern Already Seen in Major Cities
This trend has already been observed in parts of the UK. According to the 2022 census, white British residents are now a minority in cities such as London and Birmingham. These findings highlight a broader national shift, now being tracked by demographers.
In the 2022 census analysis, categories were broken down into white British, other white (such as Irish, Gipsy, and European), and non-white groups, offering a more granular look at urban diversity. The data from these urban centres hints at what the national picture may resemble in future decades.
A Divided Response and Political Implications
Professor Goodwin warned that these demographic changes could provoke a 'considerable degree of anxiety, concern, and political opposition' among voters who favour reduced immigration. He urged the government to address these fears head-on to prevent political polarisation and unrest.
He noted that the issue should not be dismissed or ignored, adding that the public debate must include all voices to ensure unity rather than division.
As the UK faces a transformative century, the data has reignited complex discussions about identity, integration, and the nation's long-term social fabric. Whether these demographic shifts lead to cultural enrichment or social fragmentation may well depend on the policy decisions made today.
