Britain's Dilemma: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This is an inkl Original article. If you like this article and you haven't already done so, consider joining inkl where we serve up news without clickbait. Our unique algorithms help filter out the noise and bring you the best news stories from around the world.

Crucial moments that change the world often sneak up on us. The defining events of a generation emerge as much from chance encounter as from human agency. As a result, we rarely know in advance when one will happen. But this year the Brits do: Thursday, the 23rd of June (The date on which they will vote on a referendum for Britain to leave the EU).

Over the past few years, a British exit, or “Brexit” from the European Union has grown from a far-right wing dream to an alarming possibility. And UK Prime Minister David Cameron has set the date for the “In/Out” referendum. Will the vote on the 23rd of June change the economic and social contract under which modern Europe lives? Inkl explores…

A referendum is the most blunt measure of public opinion on an issue available to a sitting government. Although voting is not compulsory, most UK citizens are expected to have their say. Polls suggest that Britons are split fairly evenly on the issue, so the few who remain undecided can expect fierce campaigns from both sides aimed at winning them over.

“In”

The “In” camp argues that Britain’s subtle message in favour of the EU: a rare intervention from a family that is usually tight-lipped about political affairs. However, within the UK’s Tory government, MPs remain damage the British economy. Diplomats too have warned that (as a middle power) Britain will racists and reactionaries, UKIP supporters are now enjoying their moment in the sun. The party won more than four million votes in the last election and advocates a distinctly nationalist platform which rejects the perceived bureaucratic overreach of Brussels. They want less red tape, fewer financial obligations to the EU, and tougher borders.

Supporters of the “Out” campaign are editorialising with a Eurosceptic bent.

More recently, the “Out” team has secured the support of the outspoken and eccentric Mayor of London (and Tory MP for Uxbridge), Boris Johnson. His presence adds authority and celebrity to the Eurosceptic cause. A man at home in the spotlight, Johnson has revelled in the media interest as to whether he would support his party leader, David Cameron.

As the de facto voice for their respective camps, the competition between Johnson and Cameron is now playing out on a scale that transcends political rivalry.

Background

Back in 2012, polls in the UK showed that the Tories were trailing Labour by up to 10 percentage points. At the same time, a surging UKIP was threatening to siphon off anti-EU Conservative voters. Under attack from both the left and the right, the Tories formed a plan to wedge Labour and head off the far-right movement: they promised to hold a referendum on the issue. After a resounding victory in the May 2015 General Election, the Tories set the ball rolling on bringing this issue to a head.

But in reality the UK has had a patchy relationship with its continental neighbours for quite a long time. When European nations adopted the Euro as their common currency, the UK chose to stay out of the Eurozone. Although Britain has benefited from the economic model of the EU, it has always been wary of the “ever-closer” political union. This deep-seated caution has allowed Eurosceptic groups to leverage issues like slowing growth in Europe, creeping bureaucracy, terrorism, and stiff opposition from France and from an a Brexit may be unavoidable.

So what happens if Britain leaves?

Britain is the EU’s second largest economy and the financial services capital of Europe; if it policing and counter-terrorism efforts since it relies heavily on the EU’s resources. But on the flip side, a Brexit would allow Britain to renegotiate trade agreements on its own terms, and to toughen its border policies. Everything from farming practices, to greenhouse emissions, to supermarket labels and even school books would be freed from the yoke of Brussels complex bureaucracy.

Why is this important?

On the 24th of June, Europe could wake up to a new future. Britain’s economic and political strength means a bad breakup argues that a Brexit may mark the end of the EU.

So Britain’s withdrawal could represent the first nail in the coffin for one of the great civic projects of modern history. Along with the United Nations, the European Union was founded on economic and social principles that aimed to avert the wars and genocide of the mid 20th century. The EU’s disintegration would serve as a sharp rebuke to those aspirations of transnational governance.

Moreover, the “In/Out” debate has also cast a shadow over the integrity of the United Kingdom itself. SNP leadership say a Brexit may well spring will bring with it another massive tide of people seeking a better future in Europe.

Thomas Wharton is a freelance journalist and intern at Inkl.