England still have one game to go but for the rest of the home nations the autumn internationals are done. Regardless of Saturday’s Twickenham outcome it will be remembered as one of the more intriguing periods of recent times, particularly in relation to the British and Irish Lions tour next year. Suddenly there are glimmers of realistic hope where once there was only dense black nothingness.
For this Ireland, above all, deserve immense credit. As well as defeating New Zealand for the first time in 111 years they saw off Australia and South Africa as well, breathing encouraging fresh Gaelic air into the 2017 Lions series in the process. With England making progress and Scotland also improving – we will come to Wales later – Warren Gatland will privately be wondering if the impossible dream may after all be feasible.
A sense of proportion is required, as ever. New Zealand will be at home, with all the subtle and not-so-subtle advantages that brings. The tour schedule remains an absolute brute, the shortage of preparation time still scandalous but finally we are seeing the emergence of some key building blocks, not to mention several reliable individuals around whom Gatland can construct a realistic challenge between now and June.
A quick glance down the list of those struggling to make the tour is not a bad place to start. Jamie Roberts, Dan Lydiate, Manu Tuilagi, Tommy Bowe, Rob Kearney, Dan Biggar, Keith Earls, Scott Williams, Jared Payne, Anthony Watson … at least half of them would have been inked in to the squad six months ago. Partly that is a consequence of Wales struggling to perform but it also reflects the rise of several other likely lads, many of them clad in green.
Take Tadhg Furlong. The 24‑year‑old from Wexford has started just four games for Ireland and two European Cup games for Leinster but looks precisely the kind of young bullocking tighthead who could flourish in a Lions context. Add in WP Nel and Dan Cole and the Lions could have three good, strong tightheads capable of keeping the All Black scrum honest. In the back row CJ Stander never seems to have a bad game and Sean O’Brien remains a force of nature. Add in the sharply-improving Vunipola brothers and a fit-again Maro Itoje and there is a pack who could potentially rewrite the terms of engagement, just as Ireland did in Chicago.
What else do the All Blacks not ideally want to face? A world-class goal-kicker, a strong tactically aware scrum-half and a brilliant counterattacking full-back? In Owen Farrell, Conor Murray and Stuart Hogg, the Lions should have those bases covered, too. The list of lock contenders – Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, George Kruis, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Ultan Dillane, Jonny Gray and Luke Charteris are fighting over maybe five spots – indicates the lineout will be another area of strength. If Scotland’s Huw Jones, Duncan Taylor and Alex Dunbar, Ireland’s Garry Ringrose and England’s Elliot Daly and Henry Slade keep on improving the midfield options will be almost as tantalising.
The other bonus is an Anglo‑Irish dominated squad will make it easy for certain crucial units to dovetail. Whatever happens, an Englishman or an Irishman seems likely to be throwing into the lineout or pulling the strings at fly-half. Andy Farrell, seemingly lined up as an assistant coach, knows both sets of players well and will not need to conduct many 11th-hour crash courses. While his son will be a prominent tour member, he will also enjoy the confidence of Jonathan Sexton, Robbie Henshaw and others. In terms of getting a Lions team rapidly up to speed, that is a major advantage.
Mix in Gatland’s extensive local knowledge and experience of what worked in Australia in 2013 and the chance of the home unions striking back in New Zealand for the first time since 1971 improves a little more. Much will hinge on the forthcoming Six Nations, not least for Wales with Sam Warburton, Wyn Jones, Roberts, Samson Lee, Rhys Webb and Leigh Halfpenny all under pressure to justify Gatland’s selectorial faith. If they keep struggling, though, the chances are Ireland and England will flourish; the final Saturday of the Six Nations in Dublin in March would then resemble a final trial for players such as Daly, Ringrose, Kruis, Dillane, Jamie George, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Joey Carbery, Simon Zebo, Jonny May and Jack Nowell.
The captaincy might also hinge on the outcome, although the Lions have enough players – Rory Best, Dylan Hartley, Wyn Jones, Itoje, Billy Vunipola, Farrell – down their potential Test spine to consider appointing a tour skipper but then sharing around the on-field armband. If the nominated tour captain has to sit out a game or picks up a knock – remember the victorious Lions had two Test captains in 2013 – it is no longer quite the seismic deal it was in days of yore. If the Lions are smartly selected and the injury gods are merciful they have enough good players to be competitive whoever attends the coin toss.
Lions 2017 Test XV?
S Hogg (Scotland); L Williams (Wales), E Daly (England), R Henshaw (Ireland), G North (Wales); O Farrell (England), C Murray (Ireland); M Vunipola (England), D Hartley (England), T Furlong (Ireland), AW Jones (Wales), M Itoje (England), CJ Stander (Ireland), S O’Brien (Ireland), B Vunipola (England).
Replacements: R Best (Ireland), J McGrath (Ireland), W Nel (Scotland), I Henderson (Ireland), T Faletau (Wales), B Youngs (England), J Sexton (Ireland), J Nowell (England).
Distant heroes
It is a sign of the times that, despite England winning a long-awaited grand slam, not a single rugby player features among the contenders for the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year award. Of course Andy Murray has been an inspiration and there have been umpteen wonderful Olympians. Maybe recognition will come in another form but, despite 12 games unbeaten in 2016 and three players making the six-man shortlist for World Rugby’s player of the year, it seems England’s finest are not as lodged in the public consciousness as they used to be. There are obvious mitigating factors such as limited terrestrial exposure and last year’s World Cup underachievement but could it also be that too much of their media activity is now restricted to the Rugby Football Union’s in-house platforms, with one-to-one newspaper interview access to players significantly reduced in favour of more lucrative corporate gigs? There are numerous impressive people in the England setup; showing a little more of their real selves to a wider, non-rugby audience should be a higher priority.
And another thing …
Sometimes you can just tell in an instant whether a sportsman has ‘it’ or not. Maybe Baptiste Serin, France’s new 22-year-old scrum-half from Bordeaux Bègles, will sink without trace and never be mentioned in these pages again. Looking at his glorious reverse flick pass against New Zealand, though, you suspect Serin has the ability and nerve to be a classy performer for years to come.
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