Is the “economy, stupid” political cliché about to be rewritten in Britain by substituting migration for economy?
Watching the daily development of the EU referendum debate, along with the zig-zagging opinion polls, it is possible to detect that immigration has become the key issue.
The Brexiteers, short on realistic economic arguments to bolster their case, have concentrated instead on an anti-migrant agenda. It is now obvious that it is the only card they can play with any hope of building support.
Consider the main message of “the joint declaration”, as the Daily Telegraph referred to it, by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove (playing down the female signatories, Gisela Stuart and Priti Patel).
They pledged to introduce an Australian-style points-based immigration system should British people vote to leave the EU.
Forget for a moment that they have no such power because it would require parliament to enact such legislation, and the Brexit crew do not command a Commons majority. This is all about winning the referendum vote.
The Johnson-Gove initiative, which generated national newspaper headlines, came against the background of two ICM polls (online and phone) showing leads for Leave.
The Guardian’s report on those polls noted that the result “is likely to alarm the Stronger In Europe campaign”. You bet it will. The withering away of a large lead for Remain is a surprise.
Of course, as ICM’s director, Martin Boon, generously conceded: “It is only one poll.” But it does suggest that the haphazard Brexit campaign might be having an effect.
The front page headline of i suggested it knew why there had been a switch in public opinion: “Migration fears give poll lead to Brexit.”
And the Independent noted that “public opinion appears to be shifting towards a vote for Brexit... after three polls in one week gave the official Leave campaign a narrow lead.”
Unsurprisingly, Eurosceptic national newspapers greeted both the Johnson-Gove statement and the poll results with glee. They are very happy to join the table in order to play the migration card.
“Migration factor boosts Brexit,” said a Daily Mail headlne across two pages. And the paper’s leading article praised the idea of a points-based system.
“Vote Leave in the lead”, said the Sun’s page 2 headline. It did give employment minister Priti Patel her due with an op-ed article, “Aussie migrants points system is a corking idea.”
The Daily Express devoted six pages to the referendum. It welcomed the Johnson-Gove plan, “We must end open-door immigration”, but gave more space to concerns about migrants arriving on Britain’s coast after crossing the Channel.
It also carried a piece by Iain Duncan Smith in which he was openly critical of David Cameron: “We were promised by the PM that we would limit freedom of movement and get back control of our borders, well we now know he failed. Our borders are wide open.”
The Times gave page 1 billing to Johnson and Gove, but chose to attack the Labour party for running a poor campaign on behalf of Remain.
The Telegraph’s splash headline said: “Boris: Learn English if you want to move to UK”, and the article included a reference to the ICM poll results.
Its leading article was interesting. Why, it asked, are Albanians so keen to reach Britain from France? Its answer: “France does not offer the opportunities that the UK does.”
It is a miserable, moribund dysfunctional basket case, with strikes due to “repressive labour laws” and a “top-down approach to wealth creation [which] stifles innovation.”
The Telegraph also ran an op-ed article by Brexiteer Steve Hilton in which he took the opportunity to attack Andy Coulson, a newly-minted Remainer. “He used to hate the EU,” wrote Hilton, but he has now become “some kind of airy-fairy internationalist.”
And the Daily Mirror. It kept its head down, a policy it has pursued after discovering a considerable strain of Euroscepticism among its readers. So it said nothing about migration or the polls.
But it did run an eminently sensible piece by TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady about the benefits enjoyed by workers due to EU membership. Whether Mirror readers, or anyone else, cares is another matter.
