Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Politics

Brexit outcomes: Could there be a no-deal Brexit, second referendum or General Election? What could happen next

The House of Commons has finally voted on Theresa May's Brexit deal, rejecting her proposals by the biggest Government defeat in modern history.

The Prime Minister was left reeling after her Withdrawal Agreement was voted down by 432 to 202, and Labour swiftly launched a bid to oust the Government in a vote of no confidence.

Mrs May is now battling to retain her grip on power while attempting to secure a Brexit compromise that could win the House.

With the UK scheduled to exit the EU in just over 10 weeks' time on March 29, the PM has until next Monday to return to the Commons and present a "Plan B" option.

Its "assurances" on the Irish border backstop were dismissed by Brexiteers on Monday.

There are just 73 days until Britain's scheduled exit and no clear indication what more the EU can or wants to offer.

Brexit Withdrawal Agreement: How did MPs vote?

But the move may win the PM some more time, allowing her some room to win support from MPs who would prefer any deal to no deal.

May brings the deal back for another vote

Mrs May could opt to bring the deal back to Parliament and ask MPs to reconsider.

The PM would likely hope that MPs who fear a no deal Brexit would choose to back her as the deadline to leave fast approaches.

MPs voting in the House of Commons on Tuesday night (AFP/Getty Images)

But following Mrs May's sizeable defeat in the first instance, the logic of such a move would raise questions.

May brings back Plan B and wins

The Prime Minister has yet to reveal what, if indeed there is one, her fallback position is, in the event of defeat, including it seems to Cabinet members.

Under the terms of an amendment tabled by Dominic Grieve last week and controversially passed by MPs, she has until Monday to present a new plan to the Commons.

Leaving the EU with no-deal

If Parliament cannot come together behind an alternative, the default position is that the UK will leave the EU at the end of March without a deal.

This is something to either be afraid of, or not afraid of, depending on your view of Brexit.

No confidence vote - what does it mean?

The PM has repeatedly stressed her confidence in getting a deal passed, but she could change her tune and decide to actively pursue a no-deal Brexit to avoid the possibility of it being halted.

This would likely lead to further resignations from her Cabinet by those on the Remain side - prompting more chaos in Parliament.

Asking for an extension of Article 50

Mrs May has previously insisted almost to the point of foot-stamping that Britain will leave the EU on March 29, and a U-turn here would enrage already puce Brexiteers.

But the idea of delaying Brexit by extending Article 50 (the legal process that triggered the two years of Brexit negotiations) has been gaining traction in recent weeks.

Extending Article 50 would require unanimous agreement in the European Council, the grouping of EU heads of state and government.

The length of the extension would be determined through negotiation between the UK and EU, depending on how much is left to do.

A general election

If Labour's no-confidence motion is successful, the Government will have two weeks to try and regain the House.

But if no Government is formed in that time, the nation will go to the polls.

Mr Corbyn is confident the opposition will win an election and has pledged to go back to Brussels to negotiate a better deal.

A second referendum

Supporters of a so-called "People's Vote" have argued that this is the only way to resolve divisions within the House of Commons.

However Mrs May has repeatedly quashed hopes of a second vote while Mr Corbyn has been focused on triggering a general election.

Labour members at conference left the door open to supporting a new vote on leaving if the party could not trigger a general election, something that will be pointed out increasingly noisily to Mr Corbyn if his confidence vote fails.

Halting Article 50

A court case last year ruled that, while all 27 other EU states have to agree to extend the Article 50 process of leaving, the UK can unilaterally reverse it. But neither the Tories nor Labour support this

PM forced out or resigns

While the PM has said she will not lead the Tories into another general election, she has consistently ruled out quitting before Brexit, so it seems almost certain she will stay in office.

Speaking after the vote, Mrs May made clear that she intends to stay on as she set out plans for talks with senior parliamentarians from parties across the Commons.

Given that Mrs May survived a confidence vote in her leadership last month, she technically cannot be challenged for another year.

It is possible that the PM could decide herself to step aside following last night's mammoth defeat, but her previous actions suggest that this is unlikely to happen.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.