Boris Johnson’s decision to outlaw an extension to the Brexit transition period is being widely seen as a purely political gesture. But it is a high-risk approach, which Theresa May’s former Brexit adviser Raoul Ruparel has said will lead to a “narrow and shallow” deal.
“A very narrow and shallow deal would not be very different to no deal and you would likely have to take some political pain to get it,” said Joe Owen, Brexit programme director at the Institute for Government, referring to the concessions Johnson’s would probably have to make.
What concessions would the UK have to make for such a bare-bones deal?
The EU has already said a bare-bones trade deal would be conditional on the UK accepting the EU’s rules on level playing fields on workers’ and consumers’ rights, state aid and environment protections, something the Conservatives have so far refused to countenance.
The UK may also have to make concessions on EU demands to continue fishing access in British waters.
Emmanuel Macron has warned Boris Johnson that the UK must remain “loyal” to EU standards after Brexit for British companies to maintain access to the European market.
“That could mean using quite a lot of political capital for short-term gain, which would allow Johnson to say he got a deal,” said Owen.
What would be included in a bare-bones deal?
The right to export goods to the EU, cars and agriculture in particular, without tariffs of quotas.
What is likely to be dropped in race to get the deal?
• Security: agreement to share police and security services intelligence between the EU and the UK. This would include European arrest warrants, which allow police forces to pursue criminals and terrorists across borders.
• Services including financial services, the biggest single contributor to the British GDP, and international TV channels which broadcast across the EU.
• Intellectual property: this includes protections for copyright and trade marks for businesses that sell into the EU.
• Aviation: a deal that would secure the right for airline to fly from the UK to an EU member state is considered doable. However, a deal to allow a British airline to fly from one EU country to another would be far more complex and likely to be pushed into the future.
• Science research funding: the UK has been a major beneficiary of programmes such as Horizon2020. Ongoing cooperation would not be part of a trade deal leaving universities and research hospitals unable to apply to part of EU-funded collaborations.
• Data: Brexit potentially affects all personal data transfers between the UK and EU member states. Many British businesses will have their databases housed in another EU state and could be prevented from accessing that data in a no-deal scenario.
• Mutual recognition of professional qualifications. This would be a major challenge for international practices of accountants and architects, for instance.
• Nuclear energy: a House of Lords report suggested that leaving Euratom’s regulatory system has the potential to impact fuel supply, waste management and research.
• Citizens’ rights: some rights including the free movement for British nationals who have already moved to the EU need to be negotiated. This is to enable them continue to offer services cross-border or to travel to, or retire to, another member state if they wish. Otherwise they will remain “landlocked” in the country they live in.
