Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, striving to make sense of the nonsensical since summer 2016. If you would like to receive this as a weekly email, please sign up here. And catch our monthly Brexit Means … podcast here.
Producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters, and it may be yours too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please support us. Thank you.
Top stories
Jeremy Corbyn wrote to Theresa May offering to throw Labour’s support behind her Brexit deal if she made five binding commitments, including joining a customs union but the prime minister wrote back to say no thanks.
Westminster watchers said May’s letter was aimed not just at Corbyn and his MPs, aiming to publicly expose how little space there really is between Labour’s Brexit tests and her negotiated deal but also at the rebels in May’s own party.
With the two leaders at least talking cordially to each other, however, it does feel like the prospect of some long-overdue Brexit rapprochement may not not be entirely fanciful – which is more can be said of May’s relationship with the EU.
The European council president, Donald Tusk’s remark that there should be a “special place in hell” for those who promoted Brexit without a plan drew a predictable response, although at least May left Brussels with a promise of further talks from Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.
Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier, however, repeated that there was no question of Brussels giving in to Downing Street’s demands on the backstop: “Something has to give” in the UK’s position, he said. “We’re waiting for clarity and movement.”
Inevitably, with no new suggestions from London on ways to resolve the Irish backstop problem (here’s the definitive read on that), a crunch vote in which MPs could force Theresa May’s hand could be delayed to the end of the month or later.
The prime minister also returned from a brief trip to Northern Ireland no closer to any backstop progress, as the head of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn, said the UK was “in the emergency zone of Brexit now” and continued confusion would not just affect jobs and investment but harm the UK as a long-term business destination.
Meanwhile, the government has started recruiting civilians for an emergency command-and-control centre tasked with making sure sure Britain runs smoothly after a no-deal Brexit. The Bank of England warned the economy was on course for its weakest year since the global financial crisis.
What next
May will make a Commons statement on Tuesday - at which she is expected to ask MPs for another fortnight’s grace - before parliament debates another amendable motion on Thursday. There will be no “meaningful vote” on a revised deal this week (just “as soon as possible”); that is unlikely to be before the end of February, if not even later.
If no finalised deal can be put to the Commons by 27 February, MPs would, however, get another amendable motion to consider allowing them to block a no-deal departure or make other interventions.
All this cuts deep into the remaining time, piling pressure on the British parliament to then accept what emerges – or face a no-deal scenario. In Brussels, EU officials are considering offering May a detailed plan of what a potential technological solution to the Irish border might look like, which could be included in the legally non-binding political declaration on the future trade deal.
Officials believe it is increasingly likely that any renegotiated deal will only be finally put to the Commons at the end of March – necessitating an extension of the article 50 negotiating period to get legislation through parliament.
The German finance commissioner, Günther Hermann Oettinger, has suggested the chance of a no-deal Brexit is as high as 60%.
Best of the rest
Businesses swamped by Brexit urge Gove to delay all other plans.
Manufacturing slump puts UK economy into reverse as Brexit looms.
No-deal Brexit would make Britain less safe, says police chief.
Brexit “can enhance UK’s lethality”, says defence secretary.
Cabinet backs Chris Grayling after ferry fiasco, says minister.
Tory donors could stop giving after no-deal Brexit.
Netherlands talking to 250 firms about leaving UK.
‘Buy your wine now’: the Bordeaux vineyards bottling before Brexit.
Brexit as disruptive as disease outbreak, says farmers’ leader.
End uncertainty over no-deal Brexit, says ex-civil service chief.
Shanker Singham owns a firm giving advice on EU exit.
Countdown to Brexit: the key dates as UK’s EU exit approaches.
Keir Starmer battles to keep Labour support for people’s vote alive.
No-deal Brexit: UK exporters risk being locked out of world’s harbours.
No-deal Brexit could revive mobile roaming fees, minister confirms.
Brexit could be good for UK environment, says top government adviser.
Not opposing Brexit could lose Labour 45 seats, says leaked report.
No quick fix for citizen rights under no-deal Brexit, says EU official.
Business secretary suggests ministers could quit over no-deal Brexit.
Top comment
In the Observer, Nick Cohen says that in the United Kingdom of Absurdistan, a hidden government is preparing for Brexit by keeping us in the dark:
As the Institute for Government, MPs and MEPs warn, the real scandal has nothing to do with the fantasy remain bias of the civil service and all to do with secrecy. Businesses don’t know what to expect from government and what they need to do. Neither does the supposedly sovereign people in whose name Brexit is being delivered. Whatever Brexit is, they will be left in ignorance until it is too late to do anything about it.
And in the Guardian, Martin Kettle argues that Tusk’s “special place in hell” comment didn’t go nearly far enough in his criticism of clueless Brexiters:
Donald Tusk should be criticised not for his malice, but his moderation. He triggered a tsunami of confected outrage from leavers today when he observed, with some justice, that there should be a special place in hell for those who promoted Brexit without a plan. But he should have said far more. He should have added that, within that special place, there should be an executive suite of sleepless torment for those politicians who promoted Brexit without ever giving a stuff about Ireland.
Top tweet
Luxembourg’s ever-eloquent PM spells it out:
Luxembourg PM Xavier Bettel: anyone who says a no-deal Brexit is the fault of the Europeans doesn't know their history. The UK chose Brexit and London (i.e. Westminister) needs to take responsibility.
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) February 11, 2019
