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Another roller-coaster week began with Boris Johnson seeking to win two crucial Brexit votes, on the withdrawal agreement bill (WAB) and on his plan to ram it through the Commons in three days (the programme motion) – which might have allowed him to lead the UK out of the EU as promised on 31 October.
In the event he won the former and lost the latter, the former chancellor Philip Hammond leading nine Tory independents in torpedoing Johnson’s plans in a sign that they were unconvinced by his promise to give parliament a vote on stopping a potential crash-out in 2020.
With the EU initially signalling it was likely to agree to Johnson’s enforced request under the Benn act for an extension until 31 January, the PM put the Brexit legislation on pause – but was unable to agree with Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn on a new timetable, prompting No 10 to start pushing the possibility of early elections.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given cabinet doubts over an early poll, Johnson’s decision to abandon his pledge to leave the EU by 31 October and instead plead with MPs to give him a 12 December election, and Corbyn’s apparent readiness to block that request, however, the EU27 started to get cold feet, saying they preferred to delay granting a new extension until there was more clarity from London.
France in particular argued strongly that now was not the right time to agree a three-month delay and that the EU should decide on what length of extension it would offer only after MPs had voted on granting Johnson his early election wish on Monday.
As rebel MPs began exploring ways to seize control of the agenda by allowing debate and votes on amended Brexit legislation and a possible second referendum, the Northern Irish unionists of the DUP reiterated their fury at Johnson’s Brexit deal and said they would keep opposing it until it was changed.
With Labour opposition meaning Johnson would be unlikely to get the two-thirds majority for an election needed under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the Lib Dems and the SNP offered him a route to a pre-Christmas poll by proposing to amend the FTPA to say the next election would be on 9 December – a plan that would require only a simple majority to pass.
No 10 indicated that it could well back this plan, after France – with a UK general election now looking increasingly likely – withdrew its opposition to a long delay and the EU27 formally granted a three-month extension, which Johnson reluctantly accepted.
On Monday night, as expected, the government failed to get anywhere near the numbers needed for a 12 December general election. The PM immediately said he would legislate for an early election with a bill not subject to a super-majority.
What next
Not for the first time: it all depends. With Johnson having lost his third attempt at an election under the terms of the FTPA, the government will table a one-line bill for a pre-Christmas poll that would have the support of the Lib Dems and the SNP.
This would be more likely to pass because, as a traditional bill, it requires only a simple majority. However, it would be amendable, and while the Lib Dems and the SNP may be unlikely to table amendments, Labour might.
The Conservatives believe Johnson can win an election, and seem happy for him to campaign on the grounds that he has secured a Brexit deal and just needs a clear majority to get it ratified. The Lib Dems, as the revoke Brexit party, want an early election because they know their chances of a good result will diminish drastically once Brexit has happened.
But Labour? Trailing in the polls, the party is still divided, with some arguing it is more than ready for an election and pointing out that it did far better than polls predicted in 2017 – and others seriously doubting Labour has any hope of success as long as Corbyn remains leader.
With the other two main opposition parties looking ready to back an early poll, however, it may be impossible for Labour not to this time round, and Corbyn appeared to suggest on Monday that the party could back a 9 December poll if the date was set in law.
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Top comment
In the Observer, Neil Ascherson argues that long Brexit ordeal will end up finishing off the break-up of Great Britain:
The deepest change since 2016 is the weakening of the UK’s inner bonds. Theresa May went around preaching about “our precious, precious union”. This puzzled me, given massive English indifference. Then I understood: it wasn’t Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland that was “precious” to her, but “the union” in the abstract – a sort of legitimising halo hovering over Westminster’s anointed … Yet in the union of four nations, one – England – has 85% of the population. What the past three years have shown is that the big partner is no longer concerned to put its own interests behind those of the others. A poll this year showed that Tory voters would be ready to “lose Scotland” (revealing words) if that ensured Brexit. In turn, devolution only made sense when all four nations were inside the EU. If England in 2019 can no longer remember why the union with Scotland and Northern Ireland once made sense, Brexit has delivered the UK to the hospice of history.
Top tweet
Brexit’s current absurdities neatly put by the Atlantic’s Tom McTague:
In summary, then: We have a govt which has broken its central promise; an opposition which does not want an election to make them pay for it; two anti Brexit parties offering to break the deadlock in a way that could enable Brexit; & an EU which cannot do anything about any of it
— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) October 28, 2019
