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Top stories
After insisting to the Conservative party conference that Britain was ready for a no-deal Brexit, Boris Johnson repeated his pledge that the UK would be leaving the EU on 31 October come what may – and unveiled his “final offer” to the bloc.
Dubbed “two borders for four years”, the plan to replace the controversial backstop boils down to Northern Ireland leaving the EU’s customs territory with the rest of the UK on Brexit day but staying in the single market for goods, and the Northern Irish assembly getting the right to veto the arrangements every four years.
The outline proposal soon won cautious support in Westminster from both the hardline Brexiters of the European Research Group (ERG) and the Democratic Unionist party (DUP), although not from Labour, leading many observers to suggest it might actually be capable of winning a slender Commons majority.
But the EU27 reacted with dismay, with the chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, giving a scathing analysis of the PM’s plan, the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, saying it did not meet the “agreed objectives” of the backstop, and the European parliament saying it was “not remotely acceptable”.
As the EU urged Johnson to publish the plan in full, the PM announced plans for a whirlwind tour of European capitals to try to sell it (both the German and French leaders, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, said diary issues would unfortunately make this impossible).
Meanwhile, the government promised a Scottish court that Johnson would if necessary ask the EU for a Brexit extension as required by the Benn act, apparently contradicting his repeated pledges to leave on 31 October regardless and claims from No 10 that he would find a way to sidestep the act – prompting fears he was careering towards a fresh constitutional crisis.
Ministers floated the idea that the “Stormont lock”, requiring the Northern Ireland assembly to approve the arrangements, could be ditched, but Brussels was unconvinced and declined the UK’s request for weekend talks, saying there was as yet no basis on which they could take place.
In Paris, Barnier said a deal was now looking “possible, but very difficult”, adding that no deal would never be the EU’s choice but the UK’s. Macron subsequently gave the PM until the end of this week to fundamentally revise his plan.
No 10 sought on Monday to deflect the blame for the impasse on to the EU, saying the bloc was refusing to “engage fully” with London’s proposals. Brussels responded with a stinging rebuff, leaking a point-by-point rebuttal of the UK’s plans which it said had already been handed to the government.
What next
It’s another critical week. The realistic deadline for finding a deal is probably three or four days before the 17 October EU summit. To reach a deal, the UK must satisfy the EU that its plans for checks on goods crossing the border in Ireland will work, will preserve peace, and will protect the single market and the all-Ireland economy. It will also have to shelve the Stormont lock.
Johnson may have the DUP and ERG on board, but any further British compromises will see them jump ship. And for the EU fundamental issues, not minor technical issues, are at stake: essentially, whether it is possible to leave the EU customs union and still have most of the frictionless border advantages of being in.
Talks will continue: the EU does not want to be seen to be pushing a member out, and Johnson wants to be seen to be doing all he can to secure an agreement, to bolster a future claim that the EU would be to blame for no deal.
And no one knows for sure what will happen if no deal has been achieved by 19 October, at which point the Benn act will oblige the PM to seek a three-month Brexit extension. No 10 says Johnson will obey the law, but he has said he will not resign and would rather “be dead in a ditch” than ask for an extension.
Best of the rest
‘It’s like a death sentence’: retired Britons in EU face loss of healthcare.
Court rejects latest request to force PM to ask for Brexit extension.
Leaked Brexit planning memo offers no new guidance for departing EU.
Corbyn must lead any interim government, says shadow chancellor.
Tory election delayed plans to secure key medical supplies before Brexit.
‘Brexitspeak’ growing too fast for public to keep up, say experts.
No-deal Brexit may make touring Europe ‘unviable’ for UK artists.
Top Conservative says he fears riots if UK fails to leave EU.
Top comment
In the Observer, Nick Cohen says promises to protect EU migrants in Britain have been broken too quickly, and that does not augur well for the future:
Were you worried about how we leave the EU without hurting the economy? You should not have been. Supporters of Brexit swore the task of striking a free trade agreement with the EU should be “one of the easiest in human history”. It would be fine. We were told ad nauseam that EU rights for workers and environmental protections would stay in place. They would be fine. Now Johnson’s government says destroying them is “vital for giving us the freedom and flexibility to strike new trade deals and become more competitive”. For years, I’ve believed it is worth watching how a state treats foreigners under its control, because you see how it will treat the rest of the population if it has the chance. As rights go, horizons narrow and the culture turns rancid, the identity politics that Brexit Britain is forcing on the Europeans who live here is becoming the politics it will force on everyone else.
Top tweet
Brexit could have many unpleasant, if unintended, consequences:
No-deal Brexit could see rise in dogging among lorry drivers, government fears https://t.co/sMfI0onLn7
— i newspaper (@theipaper) October 7, 2019
