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It promised to be a big week, and it was. On the House of Commons’ first day back after the summer recess, Boris Johnson was humiliatingly defeated when MPs – including 21 Conservative rebels – voted by 328 to 301 to seize control of the parliamentary agenda.
The prime minister responded by purging the Tory rebels – including heavyweights such as Ken Clarke, Nicholas Soames, Philip Hammond and David Gauke – as he had promised, and said he would ask parliament to support a snap October election.
The rebels said later his threats had boosted them and Johnson went on to suffer three more defeats: the bill drawn up by opposition and Tory rebels to block a no-deal Brexit easily cleared its second and third readings, and MPs then blocked Johnson’s attempt to secure an early election, which failed to get the two-thirds majority required.
With anger rising among moderate Conservatives at the treatment of the rebels, the House of Lords agreed – after some filibustering by Brexit-supporting peers – to send the bill back to the Commons by Friday evening, and eventually did so without amendment, meaning it became law.
The bill, intended to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, obliges the prime minister to seek an extension from Brussels if a new deal has not been agreed by 19 October – which Johnson said during an at times rambling speech that he would rather “be dead in a ditch” than do.
Johnson has good reason to be rattled. In addition to the parliamentary defeats, his younger brother, Jo, citing a conflict between family loyalty and the national interest, announced he was quitting the cabinet and stepping down as an MP. Jo Johnson was later followed by Amber Rudd.
Gauke and Hammond mauled the prime minister, warning that he risks losing millions of Conservative voters and turning the party into a Brexit sect, and Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, after long hesitation, agreed with other opposition parties to block an election until after an extension was secured.
Johnson thus finds himself cornered, with speculation that he might consider breaking the law – a course of action that legal experts (and Corbyn) were quick to warn could land him in jail or trigger a constitutional crisis.
After a weekend of continuing protests, Tory rebels warned that their new law could not be circumvented and a former supreme court judge said one possible government wheeze to get round it – writing two letters to the European council – would be illegal.
The government’s only reprieves came in the courts: in Edinburgh and at the high court in London, judges ruled the prime minister’s highly controversial decision to prorogue parliament for five weeks was lawful.
Throughout the week, Johnson and his ministers continued to claim that talks with Brussels on excising the backstop from the withdrawal agreement – and other demands – were progressing well, even if the EU was not being as helpful as it might.
The EU27 begged to differ. The prime minister’s first concrete proposal for replacing the backstop – an all-Ireland food standards zone – hit the Brussels buffers after a “disastrous” meeting with his envoy, David Frost, while EU officials accused the government of reneging on pledges to uphold the Good Friday agreement.
France later threatened to veto any further Brexit extension unless the situation changed significantly, and the Dutch trade minister warned bluntly that after recent “breathtaking” developments in London, the EU was fast running out of patience with London.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, warned Johnson there could be no “clean break” from the EU, with further fraught negotiations to come if Britain crashes out of the bloc without a deal.
Nonetheless, amid chaotic scenes in the Commons Johnson went ahead with his decision to prorogue parliament until 14 October after the bill blocking a no-deal Brexit became law.
The prime minister may however take some comfort from the knowledge that, should he ever get the election MPs again denied him on Monday night, he could well win it: the latest polls show that despite everything, the Tories have a 10-point lead over Labour. Don’t write off Johnson just yet.
What next
It’s anyone’s guess. Obliged to demand a Brexit extension he does not want, the prime minister is also being prevented from holding the election he wants. The opposition, certainly, is tempted to let Johnson “stew in his own juices”.
Johnson does have some options, none without their drawbacks. He could ignore parliament (which would be illegal). He could try to call for an election by another means, such as through a one-line bill (which requires only a simple majority, but could be amended to his disadvantage) or even a vote of no confidence in his own government (which would be very odd).
He could also choose to resign, forcing someone else – probably Corbyn – to ask for the extension, although that would install the Labour leader as prime minister; or even ask another EU leader to veto it (which none would be keen to do). The easiest course would be to leave with a deal: theoretically possible but, unless MPs have been seriously spooked, highly unlikely under the present parliament.
Although the EU (particularly countries such as France) would certainly grumble, it is hard to see it turning down a request for an extension drawn up by MPs intent on avoiding no deal. The bloc wants an agreement – though not at any price.
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Top comment
In the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley said that like Macbeth, Johnson was too “stepped” in blood to turn back – he had lost control of Brexit, parliament and election timing, and his best course of action might be to resign:
Allies report that Mr Johnson has privately said he would rather resign than be the prime minister who asked for another postponement of Brexit. I think I believe that. Either Jeremy Corbyn or someone from the so-called Rebel Alliance would then have to take over in order to ask for the extension – after which the temporary unity between them would likely start to crack. Boris Johnson would campaign as the leader of the opposition, a role in which he would be more comfortable anyway, asking for a Tory majority to deliver the Brexit that parliament had stopped. I know it sounds incredible, if not insane. But once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. In so much as there is any logic left in British politics, it points towards Boris Johnson being impelled to depose himself.
Top tweet
A lawyer sums up Boris Johnson’s premiership so far (you could add that he also lost his brother):
Johnson premiership so far in summary
— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) September 9, 2019
Lost his majority, lost control of parliament, lost every significant vote, and the one piece of legislation passed is just to take his discretionary power on Article 50 extensions away
