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And … breathe. Even by Brexit standards, that was quite a week.
First, MPs ignored Theresa May’s hoarse pleas and, despite what the government described as legally binding changes to her deal, rejected it for the second time – by a margin of 149 votes – after the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, ruled that the risk of Britain being trapped in the Irish backstop remained.
The next day, MPs voted on May’s carefully worded motion to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. Amid chaotic scenes and cabinet abstentions after a backbench amendment passed ruling out no deal forever, the motion was passed by a majority of 43.
The following day, with eight cabinet ministers rebelling this time, parliament voted overwhelmingly to request an extension to article 50, setting the scene for Britain’s departure from the EU to be postponed for three months.
The prime minister’s plan was now straightforward: if she could get her deal passed at the third time of asking and before the EU summit on 21 March, she would request a brief extension until 30 June to give parliament time to pass the legislation needed to leave.
If not, she would demand a longer extension. The hope was that the risk implied by a lengthy delay – of a softer Brexit, or possibly no Brexit at all – would be enough to help win over the hardliners of the Democratic Unionist party and the Brexit-backing European Research Group.
For a while, it almost seemed to be working. Several high-profile Conservative Brexiters, including the former work and pensions secretary Esther McVey, said they had changed their minds, and May launched a last-ditch attempt to win over the DUP.
But resistance remained, prompting Downing St to warn it would not hold a third vote before the summit if it was not sure of success. And then the Speaker, John Bercow, dropped his bombshell, blocking the prime minister from asking MPs to vote on the deal a third time unless it had fundamentally changed.
The EU, remember, has consistently excluded reopening the deal to allow any (let alone fundamental) changes. But on Monday it sought to offer a lifeline, suggesting it could formally agree a new departure date of 1 July at the summit and keep it on offer until 29 March, possibly allowing Bercow to conclude the deal was now different.
The bloc’s move came after disbelief at another lost week, a recommendation from Donald Tusk of a long Brexit delay to help the UK “rethink its strategy”, and a leaked document suggesting Brussels would have to end the UK’s extended EU membership on 1 July if elections for British MEPs are not held.
True to form, and with little over a week left to go until B-day, Brexit is not over yet.
What next?
That’s an interesting question. Much could hinge on whether the government can bring its Brexit deal back to the Commons, as it is determined to do. It seems there are two ways it could, even if the Speaker remains recalcitrant: MPs could suspend the standing orders that prevent repeat votes, or the government could call a new session of parliament.
Or, of course, May could just decide to call Bercow’s bluff. Whatever the calculation, it looks a lot more likely there will be no meaningful vote this week, setting the stage for a parliamentary cliffhanger next – which the government could feel it is now slightly more likely to win.
The Speaker’s move could serve to focus hardcore Brexiters’ minds. On the other hand, some could feel it boosts their chances of obtaining a no-deal Brexit, which is what some still want. Based on last week’s vote, May needs to change 75 MPs’ minds. Can she? At this stage there is no way of telling.
If the deal is somehow adopted, however, it seems safe to say Britain would be out after a short “technical” delay. If it is again defeated, we are probably looking at a long extension – perhaps of more than a year. Many believe that would lead to a closer future relationship with the EU, or even to Brexit being cancelled.
Other remaining possibilities include parliament demanding a second referendum: Labour has suggested it would back an amendment to the meaningful vote motion tabled by a pair of MPs, Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, under which the Commons would decline to support May’s deal until it was ratified by the public in a referendum.
Alternatively, Jeremy Corbyn could table a second no-confidence vote in May’s government, with a general election being likely if she lost it. For those intrigued about how an article 50 extension would work, my colleague Jennifer Rankin has a useful explainer here.
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Top comment
In the Guardian, Rafael Behr argues that John Bercow’s decision has blasted the prime minister’s plans off course:
It transforms the calculations MPs make about what should happen next. It also retrospectively casts a darker, more terminal shadow over the decision a majority of them made to reject the deal last Tuesday. Might some have acted differently had they known it was May’s last shot at getting her deal through? Certainly the prime minister’s strategy has depended on eliminating options, so eventually MPs would conclude that the only feasible Brexit on the table was hers. For that to work, she needed to keep bluffing and keep raising the stakes. She didn’t realise that ultimately, in parliament, it’s the Speaker who runs the game. And now all bets are off.
In the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley (sarcasm alert) applauds the Brexit ultras who have ensured the EU has never had more power over Britain:
It is a fairly safe assumption that the EU will grant a British request for an extension because its leaders don’t want a calamity crash-out Brexit. But it gets to dictate not only whether a supplicant Britain is granted a postponement but for how long and on what terms and conditions. This, apparently, is taking back control.
Top tweet
The late former foreign secretary Robin Cook’s former adviser speaks:
Let’sp get this straight. None of this would be happening if Brexiters were capable of uniting or the Prime Minister was even vaguely competent. This is your mess, Brexiters. Own it! https://t.co/sxZM4WdvKb
— David Clark (@David_K_Clark) March 19, 2019
