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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Politics
Jacob Jarvis

What time is the Brexit vote today on Theresa May's deal? And what could happen next?

MPs will decide the fate of Theresa May's Brexit deal this evening.

The PM was resoundingly defeated last time out with her agreement being voted down by 432 against and 202 for.

Having gone back to the EU and securing what she claims to be legal assurances over the Irish backstop, she will now take the deal back to the Commons tonight.

Here is the order of play for the day.

Theresa May returned from Strasbourg in the early hours (PA)

When will MPs vote?

A vote is expected to be held at around 7pm this evening following a debate by MPs.

MPs are scheduled to debate from 12.30pm, though this is likely to begin closer to 1pm according to those in the Commons.

This could also be pushed back due to urgent statements or questions.

The Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is set to publish advice on Theresa May's new deals but no timing for this have been confirmed.

What has changed since the last vote?

Since the last vote, Mrs May has gone back to the EU to seek legal assurances over issues with the Irish backstop.

She has come back with three new documents agreed with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

The first is a "joint instrument" that relates to the Withdrawal Agreement and the PM said it reduces the risk that the UK could be "deliberately held in the Northern Ireland backstop indefinitely".

The second is a "unilateral declaration" by the UK.

This sets out "the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily".

The third is a supplement to the Political Declaration "setting out commitments by the UK and the EU to expedite the negotiation and bringing into force of their future relationship".

What happens next?

If the vote passes, then Britain agrees its deal with the EU and moves ahead to the Brexit date of March 29.

If it fails, then tomorrow MPs will vote on if they wish to leave the EU without a deal or not.

If they approve a hard Brexit, then again the UK will likely aim for the exit date of March 29.

Should they vote against a no-deal scenario, then there will be a vote on Thursday, that will decide on whether MPs want to extend Article 50 or not.

If they vote yes, then Britain will have to ask the EU to do this and the terms it would be on.

It opens up a raft of other options too, with the potential for a second referendum to be called, which Labour has indicated it would back in this scenario.

While there would also be questions raised over a general election and the Prime Minister's future.

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