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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow, Kevin Rawlinson and Kate Lyons

Jeremy Corbyn tables no-confidence motion after May defeat – as it happened

This blog continues with Wednesday’s developments here:

Updated

We’re going to close the live blog for the day.

Tomorrow is shaping up to be another dramatic day in the crazy world that is UK politics, as MPs vote on the no confidence motion proposed by Jeremy Corbyn. We will be back with all the news and updates. I’ll be launching an early-morning blog at about 5:30am, so get some rest, and see you back here in a few hours.

As always, thanks for following on.

Updated

Press Association has this helpful guide to the motion of no-confidence, tabled by Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to force a general election, which is scheduled to be held tomorrow afternoon.

It is the first time the procedure has been used under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act passed by the coalition government under David Cameron.

This is how it will work:

Mr Corbyn will move the motion tabled in his name as Leader of the Opposition and will speak first in the debate scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

The Prime Minister will then speak for the government and at the end of proceedings at 7pm MPs will vote.

If the government wins there will not be a general election and ministers will carry on in office.

If the government loses, the Act states there must be an “early” election unless the government can regain the confidence of the House by winning a confidence vote within 14 days.

During that two-week period there is no statutory limit on how many times a confidence motion can be brought forward and voted on.

In the course of that period the opposition may seek to form alliances within the Commons to demonstrate they are the party most likely to command the confidence of the House and therefore should be given the opportunity to form a government.

The front page of the papers are in and they are not good for Theresa May.

The Sun has gone all-out, delivering a classic Sun front page. “Brextinct”, is their headline, as they paste May’s face onto a dodo.

“Dismay,” says the Express. “A complete humiliation,” says the Telegraph. “No deal, no hope, no clue, no confidence,” says the Mirror. Even the Daily Mail, which is usually incredibly supportive of the prime minister, can only muster: “Fighting for her life”.

And while we’re on the subject, the agenda for parliamentary business in the House of Commons tomorrow is quite remarkable.

Dominic Grieve, former attorney-general and advocate of a second referendum, will present two bills to parliament tomorrow regarding another referendum on the subject of “the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the European Union”.

This will happen sometime after 12:30pm.

Nick Boles, the Conservative MP who has said he will do what it takes to stop a no-deal Brexit, has this dire diagnosis of what went down today.

In a long thread, Boles – who earlier today tweeted that someone had threatened to burn down his house – said May “has approached the Brexit negotiation as if she commanded a majority of 150 in the Commons. She has conducted the argument as if this was a party political matter rather than a question of profound national importance of legitimate concern to all MPs.”

He urged her to work with opposition MPs to reach a “soft Brexit like that offered by Common Market 2.0 – or what Michel Barnier calls Norway Plus”.

Pro- and anti-Brexit protests – in pictures

Earlier tonight, thousands of people in favour of a second referendum marched on Parliament Square, where they watching the thumping defeat of Theresa May’s deal broadcast on large screens.

People assemble to watch the debate and vote on the Brexit deal on Tuesday night in London.
People assemble to watch the debate and vote on the Brexit deal on Tuesday night in London. Photograph: Matthew Chattle/REX/Shutterstock
Thousands turned out to hear the result of the vote, many carrying EU flags and pro-EU signs.
Thousands turned out to hear the result of the vote, many carrying EU flags and pro-Eu signs. Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Barcroft Images
Pro-EU supporters outside Parliament House.
Pro-EU supporters outside Parliament House. Photograph: Anthony Harvey/REX/Shutterstock
People opposed to Brexit assembled outside Parliament House, demanding a second referendum.
People opposed to Brexit assembled outside Parliament House, demanding a second referendum. Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Barcroft Images
Peiople’s Vote supporters celebrate the defeat of Theresa May’s deal at Parliament Square after the vote in the House of Commons .
Peiople’s Vote supporters celebrate the defeat of Theresa May’s deal at Parliament Square after the vote in the House of Commons . Photograph: Antonio Olmos for the Observer
Brexit supporters also turned out to Parliament Square, voicing their support of leaving the EU.
Brexit supporters also turned out to Parliament Square, voicing their support of leaving the EU. Photograph: Penelope Barritt/REX/Shutterstock
Those who voted to leave and are opposed to a second referendum turned out in London on Tuesday night to hear the result of the Commons vote.
Those who voted to leave and are opposed to a second referendum turned out in London on Tuesday night to hear the result of the Commons vote. Photograph: Penelope Barritt/REX/Shutterstock
Brexit supporters face off against those protesting for a second referendum.
Brexit supporters face off against those protesting for a second referendum. Photograph: Penelope Barritt/REX/Shutterstock
Thousands of people gather in Parliament Square to watch the debate on giant screens at Pro and Anti-Brexit protests.
Thousands of people gather in Parliament Square to watch the debate on giant screens at Pro and Anti-Brexit protests. Photograph: Penelope Barritt/REX/Shutterstock
Some interesting signs at the pro- and anti-Brexit protests tonight.
Some interesting signs at the pro- and anti-Brexit protests tonight. Photograph: Penelope Barritt/REX/Shutterstock
And this truly horrible float, which bears the slogan “Brexit is a monstrosity”.
And this truly horrible float, which bears the slogan “Brexit is a monstrosity”. Photograph: Penelope Barritt/REX/Shutterstock

The former Maryland congressman John Delaney has become the first 2020 presidential candidate to weigh in on Theresa May’s resounding Brexit defeat in parliament on Tuesday.

In a statement to the Guardian, Delaney, a former businessman and centrist Democrat mounting a dark horse bid for the White House in 2020, said: “The truth is Brexit was never honestly sold to voters, which is why the UK finds itself in such a difficult position right now.

“Leaving the European Union will, in fact, hurt British citizens, but staying is not an option after a referendum, unless they have a second.”

Read the full story here:

Good evening politics fans, this is Kate Lyons taking over from Kevin Rawlinson.

After such a dramatic day and with so much about Britain’s future up in the air, I think Rupa Huq, Labour MP for Ealing Central and Acton, speaks for us all when she says:

Huq has since confirmed the post was “unintentionally tweeted”, but intended or not, it feels like a tweet that speaks to the moment.

The chairman and vice chairman of the hard Brexit-supporting Leave Means Leave group, John Longworth and Richard Tice, have released this statement:

Quite rightly, MPs have rejected the worst deal in history. The PM should accept this was a bad deal and stick to her words: No deal is better than a bad deal. Let’s go to WTO and save £39billion and be free.

The figure they refer to is that which the UK and EU have agreed the former should pay in part in order to honour commitments it made while still a member of the bloc.

Updated

Earlier, we made brief mention of the reaction of the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker. Here’s his full statement:

I take note with regret of the outcome of the vote in the House of Commons this evening. On the EU side, the process of ratification of the withdrawal agreement continues.

The withdrawal agreement is a fair compromise and the best possible deal. It reduces the damage caused by Brexit for citizens and businesses across Europe. It is the only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

The European commission and, notably, our chief negotiator Michel Barnier [have]has invested enormous time and effort to negotiate the withdrawal agreement. We have shown creativity and flexibility throughout. I, together with president Tusk, have demonstrated goodwill again by offering additional clarifications and reassurances in an exchange of letters with Prime Minister May earlier this week.

The risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has increased with this evening’s vote. While we do not want this to happen, the European commission will continue its contingency work to help ensure the EU is fully prepared.

I urge the United Kingdom to clarify its intentions as soon as possible. Time is almost up.

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has moved quickly to quell business anger over the failure of May to get the deal ratified.

All the main business groups, including the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce and dozens of chief executives, were on the conference call at 9pm, in which Hammond expressed “disappointment” at the result.

One source on the call said it was “constructive”; that the “tone was realistic” about the damage this was inflicting on the economy. However, he was hammered by business leaders over parliament’s refusal to take no deal off the table.

“This was the single biggest question he was asked,” said the source just hours after the CBI, the BCC, the Institute of Directors and the Federation of Small Businesses called on the government to urgently remove that option for the sake of Britain.

Also on the call were the business secretary, Greg Clark, and the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay. A source said:

They were also asked about the extension of article 50 but immediately took that out of the conversation by saying that can only happen if we put forward an alternative. The majority of questions were round no deal.

Updated

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is following the Labour party line that a second referendum should follow any failure to secure a general election:

MPs have done the right thing tonight by rejecting the government’s bad Brexit deal. MPs from all political parties realised that this deal would worsen life chances and reduce opportunities for future generations in London and across the UK.

What happens next will define our future for decades to come. It is absolutely vital that the prime minister acts immediately to take any prospect of a no-deal Brexit off the table for good. That means withdrawing article 50.

We then need a fundamental rethink about how we take this crucial decision. The politicians have failed and, in the absence of a general election, the British public must be allowed to decide what happens next.

Updated

We’re getting some more reaction to this evening’s vote and where it leaves us from senior figures in Westminster. The Conservative backbencher and former attorney general, Dominic Grieve, has told BBC Radio 5 Live:

It’s a very strange experience to be a backbench MP and participate in a huge rebellion against the government that defeats it by such a substantial margin.

But that’s a reflection of the fact that the House of Commons collectively looked at the deal the government has negotiated and concluded that it’s a deal which is not in the national interest.

Now that’s not the prime minister’s fault in my view – we would have had a different leader and a different prime minister and we’d have still ended up with the same deal – the problem is the direct result and consequence of the Brexit decision.

Any deal, I believe, is going to be an unsatisfactory one as viewed by the Commons. Either my ERG colleagues say that it doesn’t fulfil their dreams of what Brexit was supposed to be about, or people like me look at it and say: ‘But this is a third-rate future for our country and frankly we would be much better staying in’.

I have always argued for a further referendum because I believe that it is the only way out and, in doing that, I am respectful of the fact that the electorate might turn around and say: ‘Oh no, we want to leave on the prime minister’s deal’.

Many are looking ahead to tomorrow’s debate on the no-confidence motion tabled by the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, following the vote. His party colleague and the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has tweeted:

The Tory chancellor, Philip Hammond, posted:

Also speaking to 5 Live, the Labour MP, Stephen Doughty, backed a second referendum if the party fails to secure a general election, saying:

Labour has a very clear position that was set out in our conference and agreed unanimously by our Labour members and backed by Labour voters as well, which is that we were going to vote down the deal if it didn’t meet the tests, call for a general election and remove the government.

If that doesn’t go through, it is very clear that we would have to put this to a public vote.

I actually think that is a much bigger thing than Labour policy. I think it’s the right thing to do because ... the reality is that people have changed their minds and have a right in a democracy to look at something, to look at facts and then to make a different decision.

And Tory backbencher Paul Scully told the station:

Clearly, it didn’t exactly go that well. The only good news is that it didn’t take me that long to vote.

At the end of the day, what we need to do now is get through the no-confidence motion tomorrow, which I don’t expect to succeed.

The prime minister has said that she’s going to speak to senior parliamentarians, to the DUP, to the Conservative party and see what will fly. Then she needs to go back to the EU and say: ‘Look, see, I told you so. There’s your benchmark, now you’ve got to actually shift’.

The problem with speaking to Jeremy Corbyn is that, frankly, if Jeremy Corbyn actually had a plan, given it to the prime minister and put it to a vote, he would have still voted against. That all he is interested in is this general election.

As Macron has hinted, however, sympathy among senior political figures on the continent for the view that the EU needs, for its own good, to accommodate the UK’s internal politics may be running short.

Updated

Prior to the vote, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders’ chief executive, Mike Hawes, urged MPs to take no-deal off the table. After parliamentarians rejected May’s deal, he added:

The vote against the Brexit deal on the table brings us closer to the no-deal cliff edge that would be catastrophic for the automotive industry.

Leaving the EU, our biggest and most important trading partner, without a deal and without a transition period to cushion the blow would put this sector and jobs at immediate risk.

No-deal must be avoided at all costs. Business needs certainty so we now need politicians to do everything to prevent irreversible damage to this vital sector.

Earlier, we noted that the French president, Emmanuel Macron, had repeated the EU had gone “as far as it could” on the Brexit negotiations. Here’s some more detail on his reaction to this evening’s vote:

First option, they go towards a no deal ... That’s scary for everybody. The first losers in this would be the British.

Second option, they tell us – in my view, that’s what they’ll do, I know them a bit – ‘We’ll try to improve what we can get from the Europeans and we’ll go back for a vote’.

In that case, we’ll look into it. Maybe we’ll make improvements on one or two things but I don’t really think so because we’ve reached the maximum of what we could do with the deal and we won’t, just to solve Britain’s domestic political issues, stop defending European interests.

Of an eventual third option, he said:

In my view, they’ll start with the second option and then we’ll eventually end up with the third: ‘Actually, we’re going to take more time to renegotiate something’ ... It creates a great deal of uncertainty and worries.

Updated

Evening summary

  • May has said she will hold cross-party talks with MPs about a new approach – but she has not said what this might involve, and Brexiters and pro-Europeans both seem to think that tonight’s result could increase their chances of securing the sort of Brexit they want. They can’t both be right, and at this point there is no consensus at all about what impact the vote will have on the Brexit outcome. Campaigners for a second referendum were thrilled by the result, because they believe a people’s vote now more likely. But the constitutional expert Vernon Bogdanor thinks a no-deal Brexit is now more probable (see 9.35pm), and the DUP and Brexiters such as Boris Johnson (see 9.17pm) think the Commons decision will enable May to take a tougher line in talks with Brussels. May must decide whether she wants to tack towards those Tories who favour a harder Brexit or a “managed no deal”, perhaps cushioned by an extension to article 50 that would allow more time for no-deal planning, or towards a softer Brexit in the form of a Norwegian-style deal. In her statement to MPs after the result (see 8.11pm) she said nothing about her Brexit red lines, and implied that she was leaning towards Norway by saying she wanted “constructive” talks with Labour MPs. But she also said that any proposals must be “genuinely negotiable”, and that she was committed to delivering on the result of the referendum. Given that any move towards a softer Brexit could provoke a further backlash from her own party, it is not obvious that these talks will succeed.
  • Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a no-confidence motion in the government that will be debated tomorrow. But the DUP has said it will back the government, and not one Tory has said publicly that he or she will vote against May, meaning the government is almost certain to win. If that happens, Corbyn will come under intense pressure to commit Labour to voting for a second referendum, although there is little evidence that he is keen to move in that direction in a hurry.
  • Donald Tusk has made a thinly veiled call for the UK to stay in the European Union. The European council president suggested on Twitter that the prime minister’s historic loss in parliament left a deal looking “impossible”.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is now taking over.

Updated

EU reaction to the vote

Germany’s vice chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said the vote was a “bitter day for Europe”.

“We are well prepared - but a hard Brexit would be the least attractive choice, for the EU and [Great Britain],” said Scholz, who is also finance minister.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU party and her likely successor, tweeted that she “deeply regretted” the British decision. “A disorderly no-deal Brexit will be the worst of all options,” she said, urging the British people to “not rush” into anything.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron repeated that the EU had gone “as far as it could”, while the Spanish government said in a statement it regretted “the negative result” but it still hoped the deal would win approval, adding that a no-deal exit would hit the EU but be “catastrophic” for the UK.

Updated

These are from Sky’s Beth Rigby.

Vernon Bogdanor, the politics professor and constitutional expert, has told Sky News that he thinks tonight’s vote make a no-deal Brexit more likely than a second referendum. He pointed out that the Commons has already passed legislation saying the UK will be leaving the EU on 29 March. Holding a second referendum would be very difficult, he said, because the government would have to pass legislation, and Brexiters would “fight it tooth and nail”. He went on:

There are about 40 odd sitting days left till March 29. If no other statute is passed, we leave without a deal. I take the view ... that the vote tonight makes a no-deal departure more likely than a second referendum.

Updated

My colleague Joseph Harker has written a column saying that Theresa May has turned the UK into a laughing stock and that she should go. Here is an extract:

After her devastating defeat, Theresa May tried gamely to set out her agenda for the next few weeks. Right now, for Britain’s sake, May’s only plan should be to leave office. To unblock the political gridlock, there has to be another leader: one who can negotiate afresh with Europe and who can call an election to try to win a majority for whatever they agree. May’s reputation is shot. Regardless of whether she cobbles together enough support to see off Labour’s vote of no confidence tomorrow, she must go.

Business leaders are unanimous in their dismay at the vote and the prospect of leaving the EU without a deal.

The Federation of Small Businesses said many of its members would struggle to survive should deadlock in parliament lead to the country crashing out of the EU.

“It is vital that there is a transition period, to give smaller firms time to adapt to whatever the final outcome turns out to be,” said Mike Cherry, the head of the FSB. He went on:

Small business confidence has plummeted to its lowest point since the wake of the financial crash. Four in 10 expect performance to worsen over this quarter, two thirds are not planning to increase capital investment, and a third see lack of the right skills as a barrier to growth.

That’s what political uncertainty does to business: it makes it impossible to plan, innovate and expand.

He was joined by the leader of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn and the boss of the British Chambers of Commerce, Adam Marshall, along with leaders of the retail industry and the City in condemning the failure to secure a compromise agreement that allows firms access to the EU customs union.

Updated

Boris Johnson claims government defeat gives May 'massive mandate' to renegotiate Brexit

Echoing the line taken by the DUP (see 8.44pm), Boris Johnson, the Brexiter former foreign secretary, told the BBC that the result of the vote gave Theresa May a “massive mandate” to go back to Brussels and renegotiate.

He insisted that no-deal was “not at all” off the table, saying:

We should not only be keeping the good bits of the deal, getting rid of the backstop, but we should also be actively preparing for no-deal with ever more enthusiasm.

And he claimed May’s leadership was not an issue. Asked if she was the right person to lead the party and the country, he said:

The Tory party had a go at all that, we all had a go at all that in December. That is not the issue. The issue is not who does it, the issue is what to do.

Updated

Downing Street said the cross-party talks on how to take Brexit forward promised by Theresa May in her statement to MPs (see 8.11am) should start as “swiftly as possible” once the vote of confidence was out of the way. The prime minister’s spokesman told journalists:

We want to identify what would be required to secure the backing of the house consistent with what we believe to be the result of the referendum. We want to leave with a deal and we want to work with others who share that.

The spokesman declined to be drawn on whether the talks would include Jeremy Corbyn. On this point, he said:

Let’s not pre-empt talks before they have happened. We will look to engage widely with people we believe share our objectives.

Updated

Here is a rare picture of MPs in the no lobby voting against the government tonight.

MPs voting in the no lobby
MPs voting in the no lobby Photograph: twitter

Photography is not normally allowed in the division lobbies, but several MPs have been tweeting pictures this evening. I flagged up some earlier. Here are some more.

From Labour’s Debbie Abrahams

From Labour’s Lloyd Russell-Moyle

From the Greens’ Caroline Lucas

Tom Pursglove has said he resigned as a Conservative party vice-chair in order to vote against the Brexit deal.

Updated

Lord Mandelson, the Labour pro-European, former cabinet minister and former European commissioner, has just told Sky News he is taking it for granted that article 50 will have to be extended.

Updated

Here is my colleague Jonathan Freedland’s verdict on the result.

This has been Britain’s European story, repeatedly seeing what was a project of peace, designed to end centuries of bloodshed, as a scam designed to swindle the Brits of their money. You can go further back, to repeated wars against the French, the Spanish and the Germans. Or you can go further back still to the first Brexit nearly five centuries ago, when Henry VIII sought to take back control by breaking from Rome.

Wherever you choose the starting point, the end point is clear enough. It ends like this, in the sight of a parliament paralysed by indecision, still unable to embrace Europe – but just as unable to break away. And in the spectacle of an island lost and adrift.

This is from RTE’s Jon Williams. Currency traders are making the same assessment about the impact of this result as the People’s Vote campaigners. (See 8.35pm.)

DUP claims government defeat will strengthen May's hand if she demands changes from EU

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has welcomed the result of tonight’s vote. In a statment she said:

By rejecting the withdrawal agreement, parliament has acted in the best interests of the entire United Kingdom.

The House of Commons has sent an unmistakable message to the prime minister and the European Union that this deal is rejected.

Mrs May will now be able to demonstrate to the Brussels’ negotiators that changes are required if any deal is to command the support of parliament ...

Reassurances whether in the form of letters or warm words, will not be enough. The prime minister must now go back to the European Union and seek fundamental change to the withdrawal agreement.

A source from the European Research Group, which is chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg and which represents Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, says of course they will vote for Theresa May in the confidence motion – even though they were prominent in voting against the deal tonight.

Updated

People’s Vote supporters celebrate the defeat of Theresa May’s deal in Parliament Square.
People’s Vote supporters celebrate the defeat of Theresa May’s deal in Parliament Square. Photograph: Antonio Olmos for the Observer

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has said the SNP supports Jeremy Corbyn’s confidence motion.

Describing the vote as “a defeat of historic proportions for the prime minister and her government”, Sturgeon said:

It has been crystal clear for months that the prime minister’s approach was heading for a crushing defeat. Instead of facing up to that fact, she wasted valuable time with her postponement of the meaningful vote in December. There is no more time to waste.

She went on to call for the article 50 process to be halted “urgently” and that legislation be brought to hold a second referendum on EU membership.

Sturgeon added:

The SNP supports the tabled vote of no-confidence in the government – but regardless of who leads the government, the reality is that a second EU referendum, with the option of remain on the ballot paper, is now the only credible option to avoid untold damage to the economy and the prospects of future generations.

It is also the only option, within the UK, that would allow Scotland’s democratic wish to remain in Europe to be respected.

Updated

Here is some footage from the People’s Vote rally at Westminster, showing what happened when the result of the vote was announced.

Campaigners are cheering because they think the result increases the chances of Brexit being cancelled, or at least being made much softer. That is probably a fair assessment, although it would be a mistake to think that this vote comes anything close to settling the issue, and what will happen next remains very uncertain.

UPDATE: Reading this a couple of hours later, I think it would be more accurate to say that this might turn out to be a fair assessment. Equally, it might turn out be be premature optimism. Basically, no one knows, and I don’t think you can call it either way with confidence.

Updated

How parties voted on May's Brexit deal

Here are the figures for how the parties voted on Theresa May’s deal:

For the deal – 202

Conservatives: 196

Labour: 3 (Ian Austin, Sir Kevin Barron and John Mann)

Independents: 3 (Frank Field, Lady Hermon, and Stephen Lloyd)

Against the deal – 432

Labour: 248

Conservatives: 118

SNP: 35

Lib Dems: 11

DUP: 10

Independents: 5 (Kelvin Hopkins, Ivan Lewis, Jared O’Mara, Fiona Onasanya, and John Woodcock)

Plaid Cymru: 4

Greens: 1

Majority against – 230

Updated

Tonight’s defeat is the biggest government defeat in the democratic era.

This graphic shows some of the others, for comparison.

Biggest government defeats in House of Commons
Biggest government defeats in House of Commons

DUP to support government in no-confidence vote

The DUP has confirmed that it will vote for the government in the no-confidence motion, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll reports.

Updated

Theresa May's statement to MPs about what happens next

Here is the full text of Theresa May’s statement to MPs about 20 minutes ago about what will happen next. She said:

Mr Speaker, the house has spoken and the government will listen.

It is clear that the house does not support this deal. But tonight’s vote tells us nothing about what it does support. Nothing about how – or even if – it intends to honour the decision the British people took in a referendum parliament decided to hold.

People, particularly EU citizens who have made their home here and UK citizens living in the EU, deserve clarity on these questions as soon as possible. Those whose jobs rely on our trade with the EU need that clarity. So with your permission, Mr Speaker, I would like to set out briefly how the government intends to proceed.

First, we need to confirm whether this government still enjoys the confidence of the house. I believe that it does, but given the scale and importance of tonight’s vote it is right that others have the chance to test that question if they wish to do so. I can therefore confirm that if the official opposition table a confidence motion this evening in the form required by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the government will make time to debate that motion tomorrow. And if, as happened before Christmas, the official opposition decline to do so, we will – on this occasion - consider making time tomorrow to debate any motion in the form required from the other opposition parties, should they put one forward.

Second, if the house confirms its confidence in this government I will then hold meetings with my colleagues, our confidence and supply partner the DUP and senior parliamentarians from across the house to identify what would be required to secure the backing of the house. The government will approach these meetings in a constructive spirit, but given the urgent need to make progress, we must focus on ideas that are genuinely negotiable and have sufficient support in this house.

Third, if these meetings yield such ideas, the government will then explore them with the European Union.

Mr Speaker, I want to end by offering two reassurances.

The first is to those who fear that the government’s strategy is to run down the clock to 29 March. That is not our strategy. I have always believed that the best way forward is to leave in an orderly way with a good deal and have devoted much of the last two years negotiating such a deal. As you confirmed, Mr Speaker, the amendment to the business motion tabled last week by [Dominic Grieve] is not legally binding, but the government respects the will of the house. We will therefore make a statement about the way forward and table an amendable motion by Monday.

The second reassurance is to the British people, who voted to leave the European Union in the referendum two and a half years ago. I became prime minister immediately after that referendum. I believe it is my duty to deliver on their instruction and I intend to do so.

Mr Speaker, every day that passes without this issue being resolved means more uncertainty, more bitterness and more rancour. The government has heard what the house has said tonight, but I ask members on all sides of the house to listen to the British people, who want this issue settled, and to work with the government to do just that.

Updated

This is from Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission.

EU says risk of 'disorderly' Brexit has increased

A spokesman for the European council president, Donald Tusk, said:

We regret the outcome of the vote, and urge the UK government to clarify its intentions with respect to next steps as soon as possible.

The EU27 will remain united and responsible as we have been throughout the entire process and will seek to reduce the damage caused by Brexit.

We will continue our preparations for all outcomes, including a no-deal scenario. The risk of a disorderly exit has increased with this vote, and while we do not want this to happen, we will be prepared for it.

We will continue the EU’s process of ratification of the agreement reached with the UK government. This agreement is and remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has just told MPs that the Commons will vote on the no confidence motion at 7pm tomorrow.

118 Tory MPs voted against government on Brexit

One hundred and 18 Conservatives voted against the government on Brexit. Sky’s Faisal Islam has the figures, from the CommonsVotes app.

Updated

In the Commons, the Labour MP Yvette Cooper asks John Bercow what MPs can be done to ensure article 50 is extended.

Bercow says, if MPs call for a vote, he will ensure it happens.

Updated

Tusk urges UK to consider cancelling Brexit

Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has posted this on Twitter. He seems to be urging the UK to consider cancelling Brexit.

Philippa Whitford, the SNP MP, and a doctor, says it is “shocking” that Tulip Siddiq had to delay a caesarean section today, against the advice of her doctors, because the Commons does not allow proxy voting for MPs in her position.

John Bercow, the Speaker, says he said yesterday that that was “lamentable”, and that he is happy to say that again.

Updated

Here is the no-confidence motion.

Updated

Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, tries to make a business statement, but John Bercow, the Speaker, wants to take points of order first.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says the SNP will support the no-confidence motion.

Updated

Corbyn says he has already tabled no confidence motion for debate tomorrow

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking now. He says this was the biggest defeat for a government since the 1920s.

He says the government has consistently failed to reach out to other parties.

He says the government should accept that the UK will stay in the customs union for good, that a no-deal Brexit is not an option and that the rights of EU nationals will be accepted.

He says he has tabled a motion of no confidence. It will be debated tomorrow, he says, so MPs can express their views about the incompetence of the government.

Updated

May says MPs will get chance to debate no-confidence motion tomorrow

Theresa May is making a statement to MPs now.

She says the result tells us what MPs do not want, but not what they want. She says she will first ensure MPs can see if they still have confidence in the government. If Jeremy Corbyn tables a no-confidence motion, it will get debated tomorrow. And if he does not, the government will allow other opposition parties to table a motion.

  • May says MPs will get the chance to debate a motion of no-confidence tomorrow.

She says she will then hold talks with the other parties to see what solution might be acceptable.

And she says she will go back to the EU to consider new plans.

  • May says she will hold talks with the opposition parties about an alternative Brexit approach.

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MPs reject May's Brexit plan by 432 by 202 - a majority of 230

Theresa May’s plan has been rejected by votes to 432 votes to 202 – a majority of 230.

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And these are from Labour’s Ellie Reeves.

These are from Labour’s Faisal Rashid.

And this is from Labour’s Khalid Mahmood.

And this is from Labour’s Thelma Walker.

The SNP’s Carol Monaghan has tweeted this from the no lobby.

The size of the government victory on the John Baron amendment (see 7.24pm) should not be read as an indication that only 24 MPs are worried about the backstop.

Instead, it is probably better to view it a sign that many MPs were unhappy with Baron for pushing his amendment to a vote when there seems to be a clear desire in the house to get on with the vote on the main motion.

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MPs vote on government's main Brexit motion

MPs are now voting on the main motion.

For the record, this is what it says.

That this House approves for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, the negotiated withdrawal agreement laid before the House on Monday 26 November 2018 with the title ‘Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community’ and the framework for the future relationship laid before the House on Monday 26 November 2018 with the title ‘Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom’.

MPs vote down amendment saying UK should have unilateral right to terminate backstop by 576 votes

MPs have voted down the John Baron amendment saying the UK should have a unilateral right to terminate the backstop by 600 votes to 24 – a majority of 576.

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Here is a picture of the Labour MP Tulip Siddiq voting in a wheelchair. She has postponed giving birth by caesarean section to vote.

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What May said about government considering 'creative solutions' to backstop issue

The most significant thing Theresa May said in her speech was what she said to Edward Leigh. (See 6.52pm.) This is what she told him when he asked if she would be supporting his amendment, which would set a deadline for the backstop. (See 2.47pm.)

The government isn’t able to to accept the amendment that has been selected tonight, because we have a different opinion and a different interpretation of the Vienna convention. But I note that my right honourable friend has put down alternative proposals in relation to this issue. The government is willing to look at creative solutions and it will be happy to carry on working with [Leigh] in relation to that particular issue.

By “alternative proposals”, May was referring to Leigh’s amendment r on the order paper (pdf), which has not been called. I won’t post it in full here, because it is very long, but you can read it on the order paper.

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Jeremy Corbyn is not the biggest fan of the Fleet Street press, but another consequence of his decision to pull his votes, and accelerating the voting process tonight, is that it will be a lot easier for London newspapers to get stories about the result of the main vote into their first editions.

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Labour, SNP and Leigh all pull their amendments - meaning result of main vote will be at 7.30pm, not 8.15pm

May has finished.

John Bercow invites Jeremy Corbyn to move his amendment. He does not move it.

He turns to Ian Blackford. He also decides not to move his amendment.

He turns to Edward Leigh. Leigh says, in the light of the positive response he got from May (see 6.52pm), he will not move it.

He turns to John Baron and invites him to press his amendment. Baron says he does want a vote. Bercow takes the vote by acclamation (asking MPs to cry “aye” and “no”.) At first he says the noes have it. But Baron and his supporters persist, and Bercow calls a division.

MPs are now voting on the Baron amendment.

  • Labour, the SNP and Edward Leigh have all pulled their amendments – meaning voting tonight will be speeded up. The main vote will now come at 7.15pm, with the result at about 7.30pm. This will save us all 45 minutes, and will have no effect on the overall result.

Corbyn may have decided to pull his vote perhaps because he realises there will be a lot more interest in what happens next.

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May says MPs are there to serve the people who queued up to vote in the referendum and who put their faith in politicians.

She says they have a sacred right to see MPs act in their best interests. She says, with a solemn heart, MPs must discharge their responsibilities.

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May says a vote against her deal is a vote for “uncertainty, division and the very real risk of no deal”.

The SNP’s Ian Blackford intervenes. He says all the studies show Brexit will make the UK poorer. Will the government extend article 50 and give the people a choice?

May says MPs were clear that the result of the referendum would be respected. She repeats the line about a vote against the deal being a vote for “uncertainty, division and the very real risk of no deal”.

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May appeals to Labour MPs to back her deal for sake of their constituents

May says Corbyn’s speech was like his whole approach to Brexit, “long on critcism, short on coherence”. She mocks the idea that he would be able to get a renegotiation in weeks.

She says that in its 2017 election manifesto, Labour said free movement would end. Yet at the weekend, Corbyn said he was not against free movement. She says he is against no deal. But he is also against the backstop, without which there is no deal, she says.

She says Corbyn has pursued a cynical course. He has forfeited the right to demand loyalty from Labour MPs who take a more pragmatic view.

She says she hopes that MPs opposed to no deal, whose constituents rely on manufacturing jobs, should think hard about rejecting her deal.

  • May appeals to Labour MPs to abandon their loyalty to Corbyn and back her deal for the sake of their constituents.

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May says government interested in further 'creative solutions' to making backstop temporary

Sir Edward Leigh intervenes. He says MPs are worried about the backstop. Will the government support his amendment?

May says the government is not able to support this amendment. But she praises Leigh for the work he has done on this issue and says the government is willing to look at alternative, “creative solutions” to this problem. She suggests a second Leigh amendment on the order paper, which is not being put to a vote tonight (amendment r) could provide a guide to the way forward.

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May says government 'will work harder' at taking parliament with it

May says, having rejected all the other options, only one remains: voting for this deal. She says if the UK leaves with this deal, it can build a better future.

She says as PM she would not recommend a course of action not in the country’s best interest.

May goes on:

The government will work harder at taking parliament with us.

This provokes loud jeering.

In the next phase of the talks, it will work with parliament on its plans.

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May says some people think that, by voting down this deal, they can get the government to go back to Brussels to get a better one. But the EU is not going to reopen talks, she says.

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May refers to Corbyn’s call for a general election. But this is about what is best for the country, not what is best for Labour. And she says that, after an election, the choices facing the country would remain the same.

She says people could show their support for a second referendum in the 2017 general election by voting Lib Dem. But only 7% of people did.

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May says the Commons voted to give the public the right to decide if the UK stayed in the EU. Four hundred and 30 current MPs voted to hold that referendum; only 32 voted against.

The turnout in the referendum was high, and the result was clear, she says. And then 436 MPs voted to trigger article 50. Only 85 MPs voted against, she says.

She says MPs have a duty to deliver on the democratic wishes of the British people.

A second referendum would create further disunity. There would be no agreement on the question, let alone on the answer, she says.

And she rejects a no-deal. There would be no implementation period, with no reciprocal protection for the rights of citizens.

No-deal would mean no security partnership with the EU.

She says her deal provides the basis for a long-term economic partnership with the EU. It would be more ambitious than any other the EU has. A no-deal Brexit would put that at risk.

She says, while the UK could manage with a no-deal Brexit, it would be wrong to describe this as the best outcome.

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Theresa May's speech

Theresa May stands up, to loud and sustained applause from Conservatives.

(Note to readers unfamiliar with the loyalty of British parliamentarians: this does not mean she is going to win the vote.)

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Corbyn says a general election would give new government mandate to break deadlock in Brexit talks

Corbyn says under this government more people are living in poverty. Some Tories seem to protest, presumably because Corbyn is moving off the topic of Brexit, but he pushes back, saying they should not respond like that to half a million more children being in poverty.

We need to keep in mind that the vast majority of people in our country don’t think of themselves remainers or leavers. Whether they voted leave or remain two and a half years ago, they are concerned about their future.

So Mr Speaker, I hope tonight that this house votes down this deal and then we move to a general election.

  • Corbyn says a general election would give a new government a mandate to break the deadlock in the Brexit talks.

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Corbyn says EU should agree to reopen Brexit talks if MPs vote down May’s deal

Corbyn has a message for the EU.

The overwhelming majority of this house voted to respect the result of the referendum, and therefore to trigger article 50.

So I say this to our negotiating partners in the EU: if parliament votes down this deal, then reopening negotiations should not, and cannot, be ruled out.

  • Corbyn says the EU should agree to reopen Brexit talks if MPs vote down Theresa May’s deal.

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Corbyn say many Tories will vote with Labour against the deal. And he is glad a majority of MPs are against a no-deal Brexit.

But it is not enough for this house to vote against the deal before us and against no-deal. We also have to be for something.

So, Mr Speaker, in the coming days it is vital that this house has the opportunity to debate and vote on the way forward, to consider all the options available.

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Corbyn says there is no clarity about the future in the future partnership document.

The former Brexit secretary – one of the former Brexit secretaries – promised a “detailed”, “precise” and “substantive” document. The government spectacularly failed to deliver it.

So I confirm that Labour will vote against this deal tonight because it is a bad deal for the country.

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Corbyn says jobs are at risk.

He says the withdrawal agreement is “a reckless leap in the dark”.

Under this deal, in December 2020 we will be faced with a choice: either pay more and extend the transition period, or lock us into the backstop.

At that point, the UK would be over a barrel. We would have left the EU, have lost the UK rebate, and be forced to pay whatever was demanded.

Alternatively, the backstop would come into force; an arrangement for which there is no time limit or end point. It locks Britain into a deal from which it cannot leave without the agreement of the EU. This is unprecedented in British history.

The last two years gives us no confidence that this government can do a deal in under two years. So, at some point before December 2020, the focus would then inevitably shift from negotiations on the future relationship, to negotiations on an extension to the transition period including negotiating what further payments we should make to the EU.

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Jeremy Corbyn's speech

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking now, winding up for the opposition.

He says this has been one of the most chaotic times he has experienced as an MP. The government has been held in contempt by parliament. It has lost a vote on the finance bill for the first time since the 1970s. And Theresa May pulled a vote on her Brexit deal, meaning they are voting almost a month after the debate started.

May is so desperate she has now discovered the importance of trade unions, he says.

He says the problem is that May has treated this as a Conservative party problem.

After the 2017 election, May could have reached out to trade unions and to the opposition. And she could have listened to business. They would have told her it was best to keep the UK in the customs union for good (Labour’s policy).

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From ITV’s Angus Walker

Caricatures of Conservative politicians being driven past the Houses of Parliament earlier today.
Caricatures of Conservative politicians being driven past the Houses of Parliament earlier today. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

Matt Warman, the Tory MP for Boston and Skegness, says his was the most pro-Brexit constituency. If Brexit is not delivered, it will be hard to argue that the UK is a democracy, he claims.

He will vote with the PM tonight, because he is committed to Brexit. He says voting against the deal will “put winds in the sails of those who are seeking to stop it”.

He says the risk of being stuck in the backstop is smaller than the risk of Brexit not happening.

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Advance warning that he is going to table a no confidence motion?

From the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

People’s Vote supporters at the rally in Parliament Square.
People’s Vote supporters at the rally in Parliament Square. Photograph: Antonio Olmos for the Observer

Mike Wood, a Conservative, tells the Commons he expected to resign as a PPS today so he could vote against the deal. But he now fears Brexit could be stopped if the deal is defeated. So he will be voting with the government, he says. He says he does not want to see Brexit “stolen”.

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The SNP’s Joanna Cherry says it is clear that Scotland was lied to during the 2014 independence referendum. Scotland was told it would be an equal partner with England, and that if it stayed in the UK, it would stay in the EU. Both were not true. Now she wants a second referendum on Brexit, and on Scottish independence, she says.

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A People’s Vote van drives past the Houses of Parliament
A People’s Vote van drives past the Houses of Parliament Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

My colleague Peter Walker thinks some of the pro-Brexit campaigners outside the Houses of Parliament need to learn their history.

This is from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

Caroline Johnson, a Conservative, said she would be supporting the deal. She said those in favour of Brexit had the odds against them; it was like being one player down, 10 against 11, with a referee who was taking sides.

After she finished, John Bercow, the Speaker, intervened angrily to say that he was not biased, that he had chaired every hour of the debate, and that he had done his best to ensure every MP had their say.

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Sir Hugo Swire, a Conservative, told MPs in the debate that he would be voting against Theresa May’s deal. He says he cannot accept the idea of the UK being trapped in the backstop.

Speaking at the rally outside the Houses of Parliament, David Lammy, the Labour MP who is a pro-European figurehead, raised the spectre of racism and Theresa May’s hostile environment immigration regime as he condemned the entire move towards leaving of the European Union. He said:

It’s on Westminster. We are going to get this and it’s down to you. Are you listening in there, Theresa May? Are you listening, Jeremy Corbyn? We want a people’s vote and we want it now, yes?

Friends, in just a few hours this disastrous deal will be voted down and it will be voted down largely because after the referendum two and a half years ago people in this square and beyond, they didn’t go home and mourn, they organised to take back their country, and I thank you for that.

This is not a deal that gains sovereignty; it’s a deal that gives up sovereignty. And that’s why parliament will reject it. This is not a deal that opens us up to the world; this is a deal that will make us subservient to Donald Trump’s USA, and that’s why we reject it. This is a deal that harks back to those days of empire when people were shackled and ... black and brown people were subjugated.

Leaving the European Union put the lives of foreign-born residents under threat, Lammy said.

People like my parents who came to this country and took so little and gave so much.

We reject this small-minded vision of our country, that would create a hostile environment for our friends from the European Union and charge them for the right to alongside their partners, their children, their loved ones and their friends – we reject that.

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Andrew Murrison, a Conservative, says he will be supporting the government because he is worried that, with all the “chicanery” going on in parliament, he thinks there is a risk Brexit might not happen. He says his amendment (the one not called by the Speaker, to some surprise) would have provided an assurance on the backstop. But he says the Leigh and Baron amendments (that will be put to a vote) achieve much the same effect.

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Labour’s Jack Dromey says a no-deal Brexit would be “utterly catastrophic” for Britain.

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Tim Farron, the former Lib Dem leader, says the only democratic, peaceful and consensual way through this “appalling mess” is to hold another referendum.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown tells MPs that, as a Brexiter, he will be voting for the deal. He is worried about Brexit being halted if Theresa May’s deal is defeated, he says. But in return for voting for the deal, he wants the government to come back with a better deal.

This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

In the Commons debate, Crispin Blunt, a Tory Brexiter, is speaking now. He quotes from a Telegraph article (paywall) written by an anonymous civil servant saying the government is much better prepared for a no-deal Brexit than it admits. The civil servant said:

An enormous effort by thousands of hardworking civil servants has been made to ensure that if we leave the EU without a deal, “crashing out” over a “cliff-edge” is simply not going to be an option, and it is purely a political decision not to make this clear to the public and nervous backbench MPs.

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This is from the Times’ Sam Coates.

Here are two of the clearer and more comprehensible “what happens next” graphics available.

This one’s from the BBC.

And this one’s from Bloomberg.

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This is from my colleague Lisa O’Carroll.

British police officers stand on duty as pro-Brexit demonstrators protest outside of the Houses of Parliament
British police officers stand on duty as pro-Brexit demonstrators protest outside of the Houses of Parliament Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

The Conservative MP John Baron is speaking now, moving his amendment. (See 2.47pm.) He says that he accepts the need for compromise, but that he finds the backstop unacceptable.

He says if the EU knows it cannot keep the UK in the backstop, it is more likely to offer the UK a good trade deal. If his amendment is not passed, he will vote against the government, he says.

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An anti-Brexit banner depicting Jacob Rees-Mogg outside the Houses of Parliament.
An anti-Brexit banner depicting Jacob Rees-Mogg outside the Houses of Parliament. Photograph: John Sibley/Reuters

The SNP’s Hannah Bardell says she studied alongside Erasmus students at university. She says what is happening to EU students under Brexit is a disgrace.

Back in the debate, the Conservative MP Richard Bacon has just told MPs that he will vote against Theresa May’s deal because it does not deliver Brexit.

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By 5pm, thousands had gathered in Parliament Square in front of a stage and two huge video screens for the live broadcast of the debate and vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

No-deal supporters were nowhere to be seen as Caroline Lucas made the first speech.

She said:

We’ve got a really clear message for the prime minister and I hope she’s listening, because our message is that we will not be blackmailed into accepting her dangerous blindfold Brexit deal.

Our message is we reject her vision of a mean-minded little Britain with our borders closed. Our message is that we are going to stand up in particular for our young people who voted overwhelmingly to remain and who believe our future is in Europe.

Across the road there are still far too many MPs who are playing political games, who are playing parlour games, and they are forgetting what’s at stake: people’s lives and people’s livelihoods.

One of the reasons we opposed Theresa May’s Brexit deal is because we know that every single deal will make this country poorer.

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Pro-Brexit protesters demonstrate outside the Houses of Parliament
Pro-Brexit protesters demonstrate outside the Houses of Parliament Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

I have beefed up some of the earlier posts with direct quotes from the debate from the Press Association. But to get them to show up, you may need to refresh the page.

The time limit on speeches is now down to three minutes. But the Tory Brexiter Julian Lewis needed only about 20 seconds. Asked to deliver his speech, he said because Brexit should mean Brexit, and because no deal was better than a bad deal, he would vote “no, no, no”.

He was probably channelling Margaret Thatcher.

Thatcher’s ‘no, no, no’

UPDATE: Here is the Julian Lewis version.

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Nick Boles, the Conservative who has said he will do what it takes to stop a no-deal Brexit, has recorded another threat he has received.

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Pro EU protesters demonstrating outside of the Houses Parliament
Pro EU protesters demonstrating outside of the Houses Parliament Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

You can read the debate online here on the Hansard website. Transcripts go up about three hours after they have been delivered in the chamber. The whole of the Geoffrey Cox speech is now up, but nothing after that yet.

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Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, is speaking in the debate. He explains what his amendment would do. (See 2.47pm.) He says he does not accept that it would be counter to international law. The government could agree the withdrawal agreement, subject to a letter of reservation, he says. He says he has tried to cooperate with the government, and says he was disappointed by the way Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, slapped him down. (See 1.46pm.)

Leigh says, if his amendment fails, he reserves the right to vote against the government. But he stresses that he does not want to be voting with people opposed to Brexit. He urges the government instead to back his plan. If it does, the Conservative party can unite behind that position, he says.

I believe that what my amendment is trying to do is to achieve a compromise, to try and unite as many people as possible around a deal. I have to say that having done my level best to try and help the government to achieve this compromise. I am somewhat disappointed that the attorney general appears to have slapped it down following my intervention on him and therefore I do reserve the right if the government are not prepared to support this amendment in fact to vote against the main motion.

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Frank Field, the former Labour MP who sits as an independent, tells MPs that he has changed his mind, and that he will be supporting the deal. Field, who voted leave, says he is worried that if this deal gets voted down, Brexit could be lost. But he says he still believes there is a need for a Dardanelles-type inquiry into how the Brexit process has been handled so badly.

I’ve changed my mind because for all the weaknesses of this agreement the government has put forward to us, for all of its failings, I believe we now risk losing Brexit.

That doesn’t excuse the government for their incredible incompetence, it doesn’t mean that some of us when this stage is over won’t push for a Dardanelles type inquiry to find out why we landed at this late hour in this desperate position that we are.

But I do not wish to live my time as an MP for Birkenhead aiding and abetting those whose real aim is to destroy Brexit.

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Anna Soubry, the Conservative pro-European, says the Brexit deal is a terrible deal. And MPs should not be blackmailed into voting for it because of the threat of no deal as an alternative, she says.

I would not for one moment say to... any of the other people with whom I have such huge disagreements on this side, that anybody is being in any way undemocratic tonight in voting against this deal.

I know, although I don’t agree with many of their reasons, that they are voting because they feel it’s the right thing to do, they believe it’s in the national interest and that must be right, Mr Speaker.

It must also be wrong for anyone to vote in favour of this vote because they have in effect been blackmailed into thinking that the alternative is no deal - that is simply not the case.

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Labour’s Lisa Nandy says it beggars belief that the government does not know what it wants. She proposes using a citizens’ assembly to establish a plan acceptable to the public.

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Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Brexit spokesman, says a no-deal Brexit is unacceptable. The EU will not re-open negotiations, he says. So the only option is a people’s vote.

Owen Paterson, the Tory Brexiter, goes next. He starts by pointing out that it was the Lib Dems as a party who first demanded an in/out referendum on Europe, at the time of the Lisbon treaty.

(Paterson is right. The Lib Dems, like the Conservatives, had been in favour of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. But when it looked as if the Labour government might actually lose a vote on a call for a referendum on the treaty, the then Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg said there should be an in/out referendum on the EU instead. Clegg, a pro-European, managed through this ruse to sabotage the proposed Lisbon treaty referendum, but the Lib Dem support for an in/out referendum became a policy liability for the party.)

UPDATE: A reader has been in touch to say the Lib Dems first backed an in/out referendum under Sir Menzies Campbell’s leadership in 2007. But Nick Clegg did stick with the policy when he became leader, and he promoted it in early 2008 when it provided a reason for the Lib Dems not backing a Tory amendment calling for a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. I’ve amended the paragraph above to reflect the fact that the policy changed under Campbell, not Clegg.

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This is from Alex Wickham, who has been counting potential Tory rebels for BuzzFeed.

Justine Greening, the Conservative former education secretary, says it has been obvious since last summer that Theresa May would lose this vote. She says she thinks Brexit will have to be delayed, and calls for the people to get a vote.

Turning away from the debate for a moment, the Vote Leave campaign group has lost its bid to bring a high court challenge against the Electoral Commission. As the Press Association reports, the group wanted to challenge the commission’s decision to publish a report in July last year, following an investigation into spending by leave-supporting groups during the EU referendum campaign. The report said Vote Leave broke electoral law. Lawyers for Vote Leave argued there had been “reputational damage” suffered by the group’s officials as a result of the report being issued. But, following a hearing today, Mr Justice Swift refused permission for a judicial review, saying the publication of the report was within the commission’s powers.

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In the debate, Ben Bradshaw, the Labour former cabinet minister, says he might have been willing to back a Norway option a year ago,but Theresa May has wasted time. Now he thinks the country needs a general election or a referendum. He says the country is facing an economic and constitutional crisis, and says he hopes that there will be a no-confidence vote tomorrow.

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Juncker cancels engagement so he can be in Brussels for emergency talks tomorrow

The Press Association has more on the decision by the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, to return to Brussels for possible emergency talks tomorrow. (See 3.27pm.) The PA reports:

Jean-Claude Juncker has pulled out of an event in Strasbourg on Wednesday because the Brexit vote in the Commons means he has to remain in Brussels, a European commissioner has said.

The commission president had been due to take part in a debate on the future of Europe with Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez but has been replaced by his deputy Frans Timmermans.

Pierre Moscovici, the commissioner for economic and financial affairs, told a press conference today: “President Juncker would have liked to have attended the debate, but the circumstances of it, which I am sure you are aware of, the vote in another country … I’m talking about Brexit.

“President Juncker needed to be in Brussels and that is why Vice President Timmermans is standing in.”

The Daily Mirror is reporting that an RAF plane is on standby to take Theresa May to Brussels tomorrow for emergency talks. (Cynics point out that RAF planes are always on standby, for anything.)

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Labour’s Alison McGovern says offering the public a choice as to whether the Brexit they are being offered matches the Brexit they were promised in the referendum is probably the only way forward.

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This is from the BBC’s Ross Hawkins.

Shailesh Vara, a Conservative, says he resigned as minister because of his opposition to Theresa May’s deal. It is not a compromise, he says, it’s a cave-in.

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And here is another line from Dominic Grieve.

People’s Vote and no-deal Brexit supporters were demonstrating side-by-side outside parliament as they joined forces to oppose Theresa May’s apparently doomed deal to leave the European Union.

Hundreds of demonstrators were standing in Parliament Square, outside the gates of the Palace of Westminster and by the College Garden, flying European flags and union flags, and placards calling for every kind of possible permutation of a deal, except the one arranged by the prime minister.

Cars beeped their horns as they passed the groups standing on pavements. At one point, a phalanx of no-deal Brexit supporters marched into the middle of a group of remain campaigners and burned an EU flag. The scene was animated but peaceful.

Alex Kay, 60, the mayor of Bradford on Avon, who stood with two friends on the green behind Westminster Abbey, said she hoped tonight’s vote on whether to accept the deal would be “the beginning of the end of Brexit”.

Her friend Maria af Sanderberg, 47, a Swede who has lived in the UK for 20 years, said:

It’s astonishing that with this bad deal – which is much worse than staying in the EU – [May] has managed to unite the remainers and the brexiters against her, which is actually an irony of perfection.

Closer to the gates of the palace, Philip Hodson, 60, from Newmarket in Suffolk, stood holding a placard reading: “Uphold our English constitution.”

“I hope the outcome will be no deal, and that’s the most important thing,” he said. “We should leave straight away and then Europe will come looking for us for a deal.

The reason this deal should be thrown out is it’s offering £39bn to the EU for nothing. It’s taking away our right to vote in the EU and our veto, while leaving us subject to its rules.

That’s why most remainers and leavers are together … Everybody recognises this is a terrible, terrible deal. A child could get a better deal.

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Dominic Grieve, the Tory pro-European who has been leading attempts to get parliament to block a no-deal Brexit, is speaking now.

He says Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, referred to the withdrawal agreement as an “airlock” for the UK before it entered “the fields of ambrosia”. Grieve says that he thinks, once the UK leaves the airlock, it is more likely the the UK will “choke to death”.

The analogy of the airlock in which we were assured that if we placed ourselves for a period of time in an uncomfortable position we find that door would open to the fields of ambrosia beyond, whereas I’m afraid my own view is that we will either choke to death in the airlock as a nation or when the door finally opens we will find the landscape little to our liking.

He says the UK has been living in a “fools’ paradise” since the referendum. Where was the reference to the backstop during the referendum, he asks.

He says that it is no surprise that only 20% of the public now favour Theresa May’s deal.

And he accuses Downing Street of briefing against him at the end of last week. No 10 claimed that Grieve was involved in a scheme promoted by Sir Oliver Letwin to change Commons procedural rules, despite the fact that he had no involvement, Grieve says.

He restates his support for a second referendum and says that he is still getting death threats as a result of his stance against Brexit.

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Nicky Morgan, the Conservative pro-European, told MPs in her speech in the debate that, if Theresa May loses, she should abandon her plan.

This is from the Sun’s Nick Gutteridge.

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Here is the Conservative MP Nick Boles having a dig at Dominic Raab.

John Bercow, the speaker, has now imposed a five-minute time limit on speech. Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, is speaking now. He says Theresa May’s deal would lead to the UK giving up control, and would precipitate a “democratic cliff-edge”.

I’ve always understood the case for compromise but compromise cannot come at any price.

The deal before us involves the most severe and enduring risk for our economy our democracy, while stifling the opportunities of Brexit that fired up over 17m with optimism and hope to vote in June 2016.

This deal is so demeaning to our country it would inevitably invite, no demand, reversal by the British people from the moment the ink was dry.

It would torment us for the foreseeable future.

If this deal is voted down we should make our best final offer, including an ability to exit the backstop and transition to a best in class free trade agreement and at the same time we must accelerate our preparations for leaving on WTO terms in case all reasonable offers are rebuffed in Brussels.

Updated

Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, has just finished his speech in the debate. He said he was willing to consider backing Theresa May until she published the details of her Chequers plan.

He ended his speech saying if May lost she should consider her position.

I would strongly urge the government, therefore, after this vote is cast tonight to conclude that enough is enough and that we have reached the journey’s end.

Now is the time to walk away from the intransigence of the EU and our failed policy of seeking to supplicate their guidelines, their terms and their paymasters.

We witnessed similar events in May 1940 when the then prime minister actually won the vote on the Norway debate but on reflection concluded that he had to resign because he had lost the confidence of parliament as a whole.

I believe,therefore, there are lessons in this for the prime minister to consider her position and to do so with dignity and without rancour.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, is speaking now. He says he thinks article 50 will have to be extended. He says the government should allow a series of votes to see if the Commons can agree a way forward. If that does not happen, then the only way forward will be to allow the public a vote, he says.

Updated

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, has just finished speaking.

He said the SNP amendment (see 2.47pm) to the motion calls for article 50 to be extended.

There is no such thing as a good Brexit.

The government’s own analysis and the analysis of the Scottish Government demonstrates in any of the Brexit scenarios that this country - the countries of Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales, will all be poorer under any of the Brexit scenarios than they would be under the status quo.

This government stands accused of putting workers on the dole and putting workers on the dole as a function of ideology.

Much of his speech was devoted to attacking Labour, and he criticised the party for not explicitly backing a second referendum. The party should “get off the fence”, he said.

(Actually, the SNP amendment does not call for a second referendum either – even though the party now favours one. That is in line with the wishes of the People’s Vote campaign. If the SNP amendment did not mention a second referendum, then the vote on it would become a second referendum vote. The People’s Vote campaign does not want this matter to come to the floor of the Commons until it has the best chance of winning, and that would come after a decision by Labour to formally back the idea. That is why the Lib Dems are not making a fuss about their second referendum amendment not being called.)

Blackford ended his speech by saying that the day would soon come when Scotland would vote to declare independence from the rest of the UK.

Updated

Full text of four amendments to be put to the vote after 7pm

Here is the full text of the amendments that will be put to a vote later.

The Labour amendment (Jeremy Corbyn’s)

Line 1, leave out from “House” to end and insert “declines to approve the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship because it fails to provide for a permanent UK-EU customs union and strong single market deal and would therefore lead to increased barriers to trade in goods and services, would not protect workers’ rights and environmental standards, allows for the diminution of the United Kingdom’s internal and external security and is likely to lead to the implementation of a backstop provision in Northern Ireland that is neither politically nor economically sustainable; declines to approve the United Kingdom’s leaving the European Union without a withdrawal agreement; and therefore resolves to pursue every option that prevents the United Kingdom’s either leaving the European Union without a withdrawal agreement or leaving on the basis of the negotiated withdrawal agreement laid before the House.”

The SNP amendment (Ian Blackford’s)

Line 1, leave out from “House” to end and insert “declines to approve the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship in line with the views of the Scottish parliament and the Welsh assembly that they would be damaging for Scotland, Wales and the nations and regions of the UK as a whole; notes the legal opinion of the advocate general of the European Court of Justice that the United Kingdom has the right to unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, until such time as the withdrawal agreement is formally concluded; therefore calls on the UK government to request an extension to the period of negotiation under article 50 of the treaty on European Union so that the UK does not leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement or on the basis of the negotiated agreement laid before the House on Monday 26 November 2018; and calls on the UK government to respect the will of the Scottish parliament in its vote on 5 December 2018 and the Welsh assembly in its vote on 4 December 2018, which both rejected the withdrawal agreement as it now stands.”

Tory MP Sir Edward Leigh’s amendment

At end, add “notes that the Northern Ireland backstop is intended to be temporary; notes that the Vienna convention on the law of treaties makes it absolutely clear that a sovereign state can abrogate any part of a treaty with an international body in case of a fundamental change of circumstances since the Treaty was agreed; notes that making the Northern Ireland backstop permanent would constitute such a fundamental change of circumstances; and therefore calls for an assurance from the government that, if it becomes clear by the end of 2021 that the European Union will not agree to remove the Northern Ireland backstop, the United Kingdom will treat the indefinite continuation of the backstop as a fundamental change of circumstances and will accordingly give notice on 1 January 2022 to terminate the withdrawal treaty so that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland shall become an independent country once again.”

Tory MP Sir John Baron’s amendment

At end, add “subject to changes being made in the withdrawal agreement and in the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol so that the UK has the right to terminate the protocol without having to secure the agreement of the EU.”

You can read the full list of amendments tabled, including the names of MPs who have signed each amendment, here (pdf).

Updated

UK cannot revoke article 50 just to buy further time for negotiation, attorney general says

Clarke says the UK should revoke article 50 as a means of delay. Having revoked it, it could then trigger it again, he says.

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, intervenes. He says Clarke is wrong. He says if the UK wants to revoke article 50, it would have to provide “satisfactory evidence to the EU that we are cancelling our departure form the EU”.

Clarke does not push his point. If Cox is right, then the UK needs to ask for an extension of article 50, he says.

  • Cox says the UK cannot revoke article 50 unilaterally just to buy further time for negotiation.

The difference between revoking article 50 and extending it is important. The UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally. But to extend it it needs the unanimous support of the EU27.

The European court of justice ruling (pdf) before Christmas confirmed that the UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally. But the court said the UK’s decision would have to be “unequivocal and unconditional”, and an earlier opinion (pdf) from the court’s advocate general said the UK would be bound by conditions of “good faith and sincere cooperation” – implying revocation as a negotiating tactic would not be allowed.

Updated

Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow solictor general, opens the debate for Labour. As he set out the party’s policy, he was challenged by Michael Gove, the environment secretary, who said the opposition wanted to be in a customs union with the EU, but also to have a say in its trade deals, and that this amounted to a “unicorn”. Thomas-Symonds rejected this, suggesting Turkey had some influence in EU trade policy.

Ken Clarke, the Conservative pro-European and the father of the Commons, is speaking now.

The vote on invoking article 50 revealed to me there is not the slightest chance of persuading the present House of Commons to give up leaving the EU because they’re terrified of denying the EU referendum.

To be fair to my friends, who are hardline Brexiteers and always have been, none of them had the slightest intention of taking any notice of the referendum.

But it is now a kind of religiously binding commitment it seems to the majority of this House that we must leave, so we are leaving.

These are from my colleague Lisa O’Carroll.

Updated

Opening of the Brexit debate - summary

Here are the main points from the opening of the debate, and other Brexit developments so far.

  • Bercow has called four amendments – including two other Tory backbench ones relating to the backstop. But he has not called the Lib Dem amendment, and there will be no vote on a second referendum. (See 1.09pm.)
  • Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has told MPs that the choice between accepting or rejecting May’s deal amounts to a choice between order or “chaos”. In his speech opening this afternoon’s debate, he said:

[May’s deal] provides for the orderly and predictable and legally certain winding down of our obligations and involvement in the legal systems of the EU.

If we do not legislate for that legal certainty as a matter of law alone, thousands of contracts, thousands of transactions, thousands of administrative proceedings, of judicial proceedings in the European Union and this country, will be plunged into legal uncertainty.

It would be the height of irresponsibility for any legislator to contemplate with equanimity such a situation.

If you were a litigant in a court, if you were dependent upon having concluded a contract on the basis of EU law and you found yourself suddenly with the rug pulled from under you, not knowing what your legal obligations would be, you would say to this house: ‘What are you playing at? What are you doing? You are not children in the playground, you are legislators.’ We are playing with people’s lives ...

Whether it can be done by 29 March or whether it can’t does not affect the decision we have to take today - which is: do we opt for order, or do we choose chaos?

  • Cox said an amendment from the Tory MP Edward Leigh, which will be put to a vote tonight and which would give the UK the right to abandon the withdrawal agreement if it is still in the backstop by the end of 2021 (see 1.46pm), would not be compatible with the UK’s international legal obligations. If it were passed, it could lead to the EU deciding the UK had not ratified the agreement, he said.

Updated

Cox says passing this deal would be the first step towards leaving the EU. If the Commons did not take this step, it would plunge the country into uncertainty.

And people who want to stop Brexit want MPs to vote down this deal, because they know this deal is the only path to Brexit. Vote it down, and Brexit could be stopped, he argues.

He says if MPs vote it down history will record that MPs voted against the possibility of the UK regaining independence, all because of the backstop.

If we do not take that first step then history will judge us harshly because we will be plunged into uncertainty and those who wish to prevent our departure if this vote fails today will seek to promote the conclusion that it is all too difficult and that the government should ask the electorate to think again.

That is why former prime ministers and their spin doctors and all their great panjandrums of the past are joining the chorus to condemn this deal for they know this deal is the key, there is no other, destroy it in some form or other, the only practicable deal and the path to Brexit becomes shrouded in obscurity.

And that’s it. Cox has finally finished.

Updated

Rachel Reeves, the Labour chair of the business committee, intervenes. She says Cox has been speaking for almost an hour, and almost everything he has said is aimed at addressing concerns of Tories. But, as the two votes from MPs in the Commons showed last week, what other MPs are worried about is the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. Will Cox rule that out?

Cox says the way to avoid a no-deal Brexit is to vote for this deal.

Cox say Labour wants to stay in the customs union, provided the UK could have a say in EU trade deals.

But that would be the first time the EU had ever given that right to a third country, he says. He says the Labour policy is a “fantasy”.

Updated

Peter Bone, the Tory Brexiter, intervenes to ask Cox about the report from the Lords EU committee (pdf), saying the UK would not have to pay anything to the EU after Brexit.

Cox says Bone is wrong. The UK might not have any financial obligations to the EU after Brexit under EU law, he says. But under public international law the UK would have financial obligations, he says. He says the argument that the UK would not have financial obligations under international public law “is flimsy at best”.

Updated

Cox confirms government will not accept Leigh amendment saying UK should be able to exit backstop after 2021

Sir Edward Leigh intervenes. He says many Tory MPs want an end date to the backstop. He asks the government to agree to accept amendments on this.

Cox said Leigh’s amendment would not be compatible with the UK’s international law obligations.

  • Cox confirms the government will not accept the amendment from the Tory MP Edward Leigh saying the UK should have the right to abandon the withdrawal agreement if it is still in the backstop by the end of 2021.

Here, for the record, is the full text of the Leigh amendment.

At end, add “notes that the Northern Ireland backstop is intended to be temporary; notes that the Vienna convention on the law of treaties makes it absolutely clear that a sovereign state can abrogate any part of a treaty with an international body in case of a fundamental change of circumstances since the treaty was agreed; notes that making the Northern Ireland backstop permanent would constitute such a fundamental change of circumstances; and therefore calls for an assurance from the government that, if it becomes clear by the end of 2021 that the European Union will not agree to remove the Northern Ireland backstop, the United Kingdom will treat the indefinite continuation of the backstop as a fundamental change of circumstances and will accordingly give notice on 1 January 2022 to terminate the Withdrawal Treaty so that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland shall become an independent country once again.”

If you want more information about what the Vienna convention on the law of treaties says, and whether it could be used by the UK to exit the withdrawal agreement, this House of Commons library briefing (pdf) should answer all your questions.

Updated

Cox says the regulatory provisions in the backstop are standard non-regression clauses of the kind you get in free trade agreements.

The UK will have regulatory flexibility, “if we wish to avail ourselves of it”, he says.

Cox says, once EU fishermen realise they cannot get “a single cod or plaice” from UK waters under the backstop, they will put great pressure on their governments to ensure the backstop does not continue.

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, says the EU has made it clear that the backstop cannot be permanent.

He says no Danish, Dutch or Belgian fisherman will be allowed to point the prow of their boat one metre into British waters under the backstop.

Updated

This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby, who has been speaking to a minister about the speaker’s decision not to select the Murrison amendment.

Sylvia Hermon, the independent MP from Northern Ireland, intervenes. She says Cox previously described the backstop as “an instrument of pain” for the EU. Will he elaborate?

Cox says he wants to move on to that. He says most of what is in the withdrawal agreements is entirely sensible. It allows matters to be settled orderly.

There are misconceptions about the withdrawal agreement, he says. People claim it allows the ECJ to have jurisdiction over UK law. “It does not,” he bellows. He repeats the phrase several times. Once the clauses relating to the ECJ have wound out, it will no longer have jurisdiction, he says.

And he says the same applies to the argument about EU rules continuing to have force after Brexit.

Updated

Cox explains what the withdrawal agreement achieves. It settles the bills, and allows legal agreements to continue.

He says the transition will be like an “airlock”. An airlock allows the human body to adopt to a new environment, he says. And this deal will allow the UK to adapt to the bright new world on offer after Brexit.

It will create a bridge for the departure from the EU, he says.

Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, intervenes to say that Theresa May failed to get legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement.

Cox says Dodds is right to say that the EU has not changed the withdrawal agreement. But the assurances offered have legal force, he says.

The main thrust of Cox’s speech so far has been that leaving the EU without a deal would cause chaos. I will post full quote shortly.

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, is now opening the debate. And his speech is first-rate – on the basis of what I’ve heard so far, quite easily the best rhetorical performance we’ve had since MPs embarked on this enterprise on Wednesday last week. It is probably a bit OTT for some people’s tastes. But not the Speaker’s; John Bercow has just described Cox as having “the intellect of Einstein and the eloquence of Demosthenes”.

Updated

Here is some Twitter comment on John Bercow’s decision not to call the Andrew Murrison amendment.

From my colleague Paul Johnson

From the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar

From the Independent’s Jon Stone

From the Telegraph’s Anna Mikhailova

Bercow to call allow votes on four amendments - but not one calling for second referendum

John Bercow, the Speaker, now turns to the debate. He says, under the business motion, he can now select amendments.

He has selected four he says: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s, SNP leader at Westminster Ian Blackford’s, and the Tory MPs Sir Edward Leigh’s and John Baron’s.

If amendment b) (Leigh’s) is agreed to, amendment f) (Baron’s) falls, he says. He now sets out what will happen at the end of the debate.

He says at 7pm Corbyn will be invited to move his amendment. If that is passed, the original question will be put.

Then Blackford’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put. Then Leigh’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put.

Then Baron’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put.

Then the main vote will take place.

  • Bercow refuses to call the Andrew Murrison amendment. (See 12.54pm.) This is significant because, although the Murrison amendment was not formally backed by government, some in government favoured it because, if it were passed, it would enable the government to present the EU with an ultimatum.
  • He also refuses to call the Hugo Swire amendment and the John Mann amendment – two amendments the government said it would back. (But the fact that the government has said it accepts them means it is still theoretically committed to accept what they say, even though MPs will not vote on this.)
  • MPs will vote on two amendments specifically dealing with the backstop, Edward Leigh’s and John Baron’s, as well as a Labour one and an SNP one.
  • There will be no vote on a second referendum amendment. The Lib Dems tabled on on this topic, but Bercow has not called it.
  • There should be five votes in total, with the result of the final vote, yes/no on Theresa May’s deal, coming at about 8.15pm.

Updated

From my colleague Dan Sabbagh

DUP says Murrison amendment not enough to make deal acceptable

The DUP has put out a statement saying the Andrew Murrison amendment, which says the withdrawal agreement should be amended “to specify that the backstop solution shall expire on 31 December 2021”, is not enough to make the deal acceptable to them. A DUP spokesman said:

Parliament is today being asked to vote on the legally binding withdrawal agreement negotiated by the prime minister. That does not contain an end date on the backstop.

The prime minister has known for many weeks what we require.

Amendments tabled in parliament will have no bearing on the legal status of what has been negotiated. What is required is for the prime minister is to go and secure legally binding changes as she promised.

Today’s very belated amendments are part of the internal parliamentary games and do not change the need to secure legally binding changes.

In the Commons the Conservative MP Nick Boles has just move his EU withdrawal (no 2) bill. He explained on the Today programme yesterday how this would work.

In the Commons, health questions are over. John Bercow, the Speaker, is taking points of order. Then we will get a 10-minute rule bill (which, confusingly, can go on for 20 minutes, even though is normally over in about five minutes).

After that the debate will start. At that point Bercow will announce what amendments are being taken.

Updated

Sky’s Beth Rigby has more on what happened at cabinet.

Some useful benchmarks for later.

The Press Association has revised its projection of how the vote will go from the figures I quoted earlier. (See 11.53am.) It now says Theresa May seems to be heading for defeat by about 160 votes.

Updated

May to respond to Brexit vote 'quickly', No 10 says

Here is some briefing from today’s cabinet.

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford

From the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar

Another question from BTL.

User avatar for AndrewGA

@Andrew, Is an immediate election really inevitable if the Commons passes a vote of no confidence in Mrs May's government? Could not, under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the Privy Council be asked to recommend to the Queen someone to be an interim PM leading a government which promised to resolve the current impasse, legislate to annul the fixed term act and then call and then call a general election. That might just focus some minds, for an immediate election would surely be extremely fractious and unpopular.

If May lost a confidence motion, a general election would not be inevitable. It would only happen if no alternative PM was able to win a confidence motion within 14 days. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act does not say who should get a chance at forming a government, or in what order, but in practice May would stay as PM until she was able to recommend a successor to the Queen, and she would only do that when she had an assurance that someone - Boris Johnson? Jeremy Corbyn? Someone else entirely? - had the numbers to win a confidence motion.

Here is Nikki da Costa, who until recently was director of legislative affairs at Downing Street, on the possible significance of John Bercow’s decision not to give people in the Commons advance warning of the decision he will announce about what amendments he will call. (See 11.55am.)

Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister, has said it is up to the UK to come up with a Brexit back-up plan, not the EU, the BBC’s Adam Fleming reports.

There is much attention focused on which of the dozen or so amendments to the deal will be accepted by the speaker, John Bercow to be voted on from 7pm. However, it seems we’re going to have to wait for the start of today’s debate at about 12.45pm.

News on what amendments have been accepted usually leak out in advance, But today, I’m told Bercow is keeping his plans close to his chest.

How big will Theresa May's defeat be?

Everyone at Westminster is agreed that Theresa May will lose tonight by a wide margin. But there is no consensus as to quite huge her defeat will be, partly because we don’t know yet what amendments will be put to a vote, partly because some MPs change their mind at the last moment, and partly because Tory MPs who have said publicly that they will not support May’s deal can either vote against or abstain - making a big difference to the size of the overall defeat.

But the Guardian, and other news organisations, have been crunching the numbers, and trying to predict what might happen. Here is a summary of the main forecasts available.

The Guardian

Our tally has 426 MPs committed to voting against the deal and 213 committed to voting in favour. That points to a government defeat by 213 votes, but these figures don’t include several dozen unconfirmed MPs who may well back May.

Sky News

Sky News has May heading for a potential defeat by 200 votes or more. They have counted 423 MPs planning to vote against, and 185 MPs planning to vote in favour - which would point to a defeat by 238 votes - but, again, these figures do not include MPs who have not declared their intention.

The magic number that the prime minister needs to win the crucial Commons vote on 11 December is 318.

ConservativeHome

The ConservativeHome website, a specialist website for Tory members, says 75 Conservative MP will definitely vote against May’s deal, another 26 will probably oppose it, and a further 10 May support it.

The Press Association

The Press Association has 256 MPs planning to vote in favour of the deal, and 383 planning to vote against. Those numbers would deliver a defeat by 127 votes.

The Telegraph

The Telegraph has counted 114 Tory MPs who will vote against the deal.

BuzzFeed

BuzzFeed also come up with 114 Tory MPs planning to vote against the deal, although their list does not seem to have been updated recently.

Updated

Business leaders have given a last minute warning to MPs about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, saying the future of hundreds of thousands of jobs is in their hands, the Press Association reports. Industry groups have been calling for clarity over the UK leaving the EU, making it clear that the years of uncertainty have already affected investment plans.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said:

As MPs prepare to vote on the government’s Brexit deal, we urge them to remember they hold the future of the British automotive industry - and the hundreds and thousands of jobs it supports - in their hands.

Brexit is already causing us damage, in output, costs and jobs, but this does not compare with the catastrophic consequences of being cut adrift from our biggest trading partner overnight.

The just-in-time nature of automotive means the impact of ‘no deal’ will be felt, not in months or weeks, but hours.

A managed ‘no deal’ is a fantasy - we would face immediate delivery shortages, disruption, additional costs and uncertainty.

Both government and parliament have a responsibility to take ‘no deal’ off the table or risk destroying this vital UK industry.

And Colin Stanbridge, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive, said:

It is staggering that we are now weeks away from leaving the EU and businesses still don’t know the terms of that departure and what preparations they require.

We simply should not be at this point this late in the day.

Our most recent survey of over 500 London businesses showed all business confidence and economic indicators falling, some to their lowest recorded levels.

Businesses in the capital are seeing measurable damage from this uncertainty. Parliament must provide clarity on the terms of our exit from the EU.

The German government has denied a report in the Sun that chancellor Angela Merkel offered concessions to Theresa May after Tuesday’s vote. (See 10.40am.) “The German chancellor has given no assurances beyond those that were discussed by the European council in December and what is set out in the letter from [European commission president] Jean-Claude Juncker and [European council president] Donald Tusk,” a government spokesman said.

Angela Merkel and Theresa May (right) at the EU summit in Brussels in December.
Angela Merkel and Theresa May (right) at the EU summit in Brussels in December. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA

Here is the Conservative MP Nick Boles, who is now leading parliamentary efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit, on his colleagues from the European Research Group, which represents Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit.

This, from Reuters, comes as no great surprise ...

Another question from BTL.

User avatar for John Green

Andrew. Would it be possible if Corbyn won the vote of no confidence to run a GE and a referendum on the same day?

So we could solve the election/referendum dilemma by holding both - thereby satisfying both Jeremy Corbyn and Chuka Umunna? In theory parliament can legislate for whatever it wants, but the Electoral Commission has always strongly opposed the idea of holding referendums on the same day as other elections, because the different issues might get muddled. So that’s not going to happen. Also, the timetables don’t overlap. An election can be held relatively quickly, but referendum campaigns take longer, mainly because a minimum of 10 weeks is allocated under legislation to enable the Electoral Commission to designate lead campaign groups on either side.

German government denies report saying Merkel has offered May new assurances

The German government has denied a story in today’s Sun claiming that Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has given Theresa May an assurance that the EU will offer the UK new assurances if May loses the vote.

The paper says:

It has emerged that the PM has been given fresh hope of eventual success from a last minute offer of help from Angela Merkel ...

A senior Government figure said the PM and Mrs Merkel agreed there needs to be “a blood-letting moment” first.

Dubbing the pair’s phone call on Sunday morning as “very positive”, the source added: “Merkel believes there is more the EU can do once the vote is over as no deal would be a disaster for everyone, and they agreed to talk after it”.

This is from the BBC’s Berlin correspondent, Jenny Hill.

This is from Arlene Foster, the DUP leader.

A question from BTL, from JohnnyTheSailor.

User avatar for JohnnyTheSailor

@Andrew. Is a Royal Commission a way out of this? That is, could Theresa May (or some other Prime Minister) withdraw Article 50 for the time being and call a cross-party Royal Commission to come up a solution that everybody can get behind?

No one is suggesting that, not least because royal commissions go on for ever (or “take minutes and last years”, as Harold Wilson put it). But Gordon Brown and Sir John Major are both among those arguing that deliberative democracy - ie, some form of citizens’ assembly - should be used to come up with a compromise proposal acceptable to the country as a whole. (The Guardian has also backed the idea in its main Brexit leader.) Citizens’ assemblies are probably the 21st century equivalent of royal commissions - ie preferred solutions to problems that party politics cannot solve. But neither Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn are interested at the moment, and without one or both of them coming out in favour, the idea is probably a non-starter.

Mundell says, if May loses vote, she should try again to get deal through Commons

David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, told the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland that, if the government loses the vote, MPs should be asked to consider the matter again. He said:

My feeling now is that there’s a significant number of MPs who feel that they need to - in this initial vote - vote against the deal.

Asked what should happen if the government lost, he went on:

I think that everybody has to reflect on the outcome of the vote.

I’ve said before, and I’m still very clear, that the obvious option following this vote - if it wasn’t to go through - is to revisit the vote.

I don’t want to see a situation where there are repeat votes.

I do see that there are a number of people who clearly want in the vote tonight to register their position and view on the deal, but I hope that if there is another vote on this their actual thought process will be one of: ‘What are the alternatives?’

Fourteen amendments to the government’s main Brexit motion are on the order paper this morning. You can read them all here (pdf).

John Bercow, the speaker, will announce at the start of the debate which ones he will put to a vote, although we will probably learn about his decision before the debate starts at around 12.45pm, because the whips do get warning about what he has decided.

One of the most important ones is the amendment tabled by the Conservative Sir Hugo Swire. This is intended to impose conditions on the operation of the backstop, and the government is backing it, although there is a debate about how much impact some of its clauses would have in practice.

On the Today programme this morning Swire explained why he thought his amendment was needed.

The fact is that I think without movement on this part of the withdrawal bill, the chances of it getting through this evening are nil.

Despite the EU’s insistence that it will not accept a time limit on the backstop, Swire said his amendment and a similar one tabled by Andrew Murrison would give Theresa May “elbow room to go back to Brussels and say, ‘It is in this area that there can be movement’.”

On Sky’s All Out Politics Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, said that if Theresa May lost the vote tonight, Labour should table a motion of no confidence in the government tonight or tomorrow. Many people think Jeremy Corbyn will announce one tonight, but Andy McDonald, the shadow transport secretary, told the same programme that it would happen “soon”.

Here are some more lines from Michael Gove’s interview on Today.

  • Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary, refused to say that he expected Theresa May to win tonight’s vote.
  • He said there were MPs in the Commons determined to prevent Brexit. He said:

The real danger is if people do not vote for the government this evening, we face either a no-deal Brexit, with the short-term economic damage that would bring, or worse: no Brexit at all.

We know there are people in the House of Commons and outside who have never made their peace with this decision, who want to overturn it.

  • He said the backstop amounted to “a trap for the EU” and “a whole bowl of glistening cherries” for the UK. He explained:

I think the whole point about the backstop is that it’s deeply uncomfortable for the EU.

If it is a trap for anyone, it’s a trap for the EU. Why? Because the European Union said at the very beginning of this process that there would be no cherry-picking, the four freedoms of the single market were indivisible.

But we have picked a whole bowl of glistening cherries, we have free access to the European market with no tariffs and no quotas but at the same time we say that European citizens have no freedom of movement.

We don’t pay a penny for that access, if we are worried about money after we leave and when we are in the backstop, and at the same time we can say to European nations, ‘Do you know what? Access to our territorial waters for fishing, access to our exclusive economic zone, forget about it’.

We are in a stronger position in the backstop.

This, of course, begs the question, if the backstop really amounts to such a positive outcome for the UK, why Gove and his cabinet colleagues also insist that they hope it will never be needed.

The Press Association has also filed its own explanation of what the Game of Thrones “winter is coming” catchphrase, that Gove also quoted in his interview (see 9.11am), refers to. It is a warning about how “cold weather heralds the arrival of an apocalyptic army of the frozen undead on the borders of the fictional land of Westeros”, the Press Association says. They are led by this chap, the Night King.

The Night King from the Game of Thrones
The Night King from the Game of Thrones Photograph: Helen Sloan/2017 Home Box Office, Inc. All

My colleague Patrick Wintour just thinks Gove has got his seasons muddled.

Updated

“To govern is to choose,” the French prime minister Pierre Mendes-France once famously said, and today the UK faces the most important choice moment since it voted to leave the European Union almost three years ago. But tonight we expected to find that what parliament chooses doesn’t match what the government has already chosen. And both the legislature and the executive are trying implement what the public chose in a crude, binary referendum that subverted the normal system of parliamentary democracy. It’s all a horrible mess, and quite where it will end up remains anyone’s guess.

Michael Gove, the Brexiter environment secretary, was on the Today programme earlier making a last-minute bid to persuade MPs to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal and he argued that, if it passes, there will be an opportunity to “improve” Brexit in the next stage of the talks (the trade negotiations due to start after the EU has left). He told the programme:

I’m saying [to MPs] look fairly at this deal. This is the door through which we can walk in order to ensure that we are outside the European Union and we can determine our future ... This deal is stage one. We can improve this process because in stage two, as we negotiate the final status of our trade and other relationships with the European Union, we can choose, and we are in a stronger position. That is the critical question which faces the House of Commons today. Do we walk through that door? Or do we lock it?

He also invoked the Game of Thrones to convey a sense of how awful it would be if May’s deal were voted down.

I think if we don’t vote for the deal tonight, in the words of Jon Snow, “winter is coming.” I think if we don’t vote for the deal tonight we will do damage to our democracy by saying to people that we are not going to implement Brexit, and the opportunity that all of us have to live up to our democratic obligations is clear.

(If you’re not familiar with it, Game of Thrones is an epic TV drama in which a bunch of mostly sociopathic members of the ruling class constantly feud with each other, resulting in them wrecking havoc on a country loosely modelled on the UK. Comparisons with Brexit are, of course, coincidental, but Gove is a big fan.)

Gove’s intervention is unlikely to help May much. As we report in our overnight preview, she is facing a crushing defeat.

And her position has not been helped by the fact that the Labour MP Hilary Benn has this morning announced that he has withdrawn an amendment that, had it been put to a vote, might have minimised the apparent scale of May’s defeat. My colleague Jessica Elgot explains all here.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Theresa May chairs cabinet.

After 12.45pm: Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, opens the final day of the Brexit debate.

After 6pm: Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May wind up the Brexit debate.

7pm: MPs start voting. Quite how long the process takes depends on how many amendments John Bercow, the speaker, calls, but with each vote taking 15 minutes, and there being a good chance there could be half a dozen or more votes, it is possible that the final vote on the main motion may not come until nearer 9pm. If, as expected, May loses, MPs will expect her to give some sort of immediate response in the Commons chamber, as a point of order. At this point Corbyn could also use a point of order to announce that he will be tabling a motion of no confidence in the government.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply ATL, although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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