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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

May tells MPs UK and EU aren't 'far apart' as she insists UK must be able to terminate Irish backstop - as it happened

Prime Minister Theresa May addressed the House of Commons with an update on the latest developments in the Brexit negotiations.
Prime Minister Theresa May addressed the House of Commons with an update on the latest developments in the Brexit negotiations. Photograph: PA

Closing summary

We’re going to close down this live blog now. Here’s a summary of the afternoon’s events:

  • The prime minister, Theresa May, will address her fellow EU leaders this week as she seeks to ensure a Brexit deal is struck. May will give the UK government’s “assessment of the negotiations”, before her 27 European counterparts break off to discuss how to approach the remaining talks.
  • The Labour party leadership has assured the parliamentary party that they will not be asked to support either May’s deal or no deal. Instead, the party would focus on demanding a general election, should May return without a proposal Labour felt it could get behind.

You can read a summary of MPs’ questioning of May here – and one of her statement to parliament here.

And you can read the full story on May’s Brexit travails here:

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has addressed a meeting of his party’s peers and MPs, along with the shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer.

They told the Parliamentary Labour Party that opposing any deal Theresa May brought back would not necessarily mean no deal was the alternative. A party source said:

Both Keir and Jeremy made clear that it isn’t a straightforward choice between the likely package that Theresa May brings back and no deal.

If we vote against it and it’s voted down in parliament, then there is the option of calling for a general election on the basis that the government is unable to deliver that outcome, that we would seek to reopen the negotiations on the basis of our alternative plan and then, failing all that, all other options are on the table.

Updated

The Parliamentary Labour Party are not the only group meeting this evening. Cabinet Brexiters have also gathered. But my colleague, Pippa Crerar, has a worrying update:

Confirmation that Theresa May will address her fellow EU leaders this week. Her official spokesman says:

The PM has accepted an invitation from President Tusk to provide an update on the Brexit negotiations on Wednesday evening. This will take place in advance of a dinner discussion on Brexit by the 27 other member states.”

Updated

Labour MPs are also meeting this evening.

The prime minister, Theresa May, has been invited to address her fellow EU leaders on Wednesday as she insists a deal remains “achievable”.

In a letter to European Council members, the EU president, Donald Tusk, says the Brexit negotiations have “proven to be more complicated than some may have expected”. But he adds: “We should nevertheless remain hopeful and determined, as there is good will to continue these talks on both sides.”

This week’s two-day summit will open with a debate on Brexit and a speech from May, “giving the UK government’s assessment of the negotiations”. The 27 other leaders of EU member states will then get together without May to “decide on how to take the negotiations forward, on the basis of a recommendation by our chief negotiator, Michel Barnier”.

Tusk expresses hope that a deal can be struck this month, adding:

But at the same time, responsible as we are, we must prepare the EU for a no-deal scenario, which is more likely than ever before. Like the UK, the [EU] Commission has started such preparations, and will give us an update during the meeting.

But let me be absolutely clear. The fact that we are preparing for a no-deal scenario must not, under any circumstances, lead us away from making every effort to reach the best agreement possible, for all sides. This is what our state of mind should be at this stage. As someone rightly said: ‘It always seems impossible until it’s done’. Let us not give up.

The summit will reconvene on Thursday for discussions on migration, security and international relations, as well as on economics, before meetings with 21 Asian countries.

Updated

MPs question Theresa May on Brexit - Summary

I’ve summarised the main points from Theresa May’s opening statement already. (See 4.36pm.) But, as is often the case with these statements, some of the most interesting material came in the questions that were thrown at her, and in what she said in response. Here are the highlights from those responses.

  • Theresa May’s Chequers plan faced strong criticism from MPs from all sides of the Commons. While there was little personal criticism of May during the exchanges, which lasted for around an hour and 40 minutes, what was striking was how little support there was for the proposal agreed at Chequers and fleshed out in the government’s white paper. Even Tory MPs normally cast as loyalist sounded sceptical.
  • May gave a hint that a failure to agree a deal could lead to the Commons voting for a second Brexit referendum. She has repeatedly said she is opposed to a second referendum and she said that again today, arguing that it would undermine trust in politics because it would dishonour the 2016 referendum result. But when the Conservative MP Heidi Allen said a second referendum might be needed if there were no deal, May replied:

We are working to get a good deal with the European Union. If it were the case that at the end of the negotiation process actually it was a no deal, that both sides agreed that no deal was there, than actually that would come back to this House, and then we would see what position this House would take in the circumstances of the time.

It was not clear what May meant by her answer, but in her Conservative party conference speech she told Brexiters that if they did not back her plan, they could end up with no Brexit, and so it is in her interests to talk up the prospect of a second referendum taking place. However it is very hard to see how a referendum could take place without the government allowing time for the legislation setting one up - and, given everything else she has said on this, it is difficult to imagine a government led by her actually doing this.

  • May said she was opposed to extending article 50 to allow more time for Brexit talks. When Labour’s Yvette Cooper proposed this, May replied:

I do not believe that we should be extending article 50.

But May did not categorically rule it out. (I have taken out a heading in an earlier post saying she was unequivocal about this.)

  • May appeared to rule out an Irish backstop plan that would involve Northern Ireland being subject to single market regulations not applying to Great Britain. She has already said she would oppose a new customs border down the Irish Sea. But at one stage there was speculation that she might allow goods going to Northern Ireland from GB to be subject to regulatory checks required by the single market. The DUP’s leader at Westminster, Nigel Dodds, asked her to rule this out, saying:

Will she confirm today ... that a proposed backstop that would see Northern Ireland carved off in the EU customs union and parts of the single market, separated through a border in the Irish Sea from the UK’s own internal market, could never be accepted by her.

May replied:

When the UK leaves the European Union, it will be the UK that leave the European Union. We will be leaving the European Union together.

She also explained that this was why she could not accept the EU’s “backstop to the backstop”. Afterwards Dodds seemed to welcome her clarification.

  • May repeatedly refused to say that the Irish backstop would include a precise end date. And, when asked by Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, if it could definitely end by December 2021 (as the government proposed in its June backstop paper), she refused to give that assurance.
  • She refused to rule out the UK having to pay more than the £39bn “divorce bill” agreed if the UK-wide Irish backstop gets activated. (See 4.53pm.)

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is taking over now.

Updated

Theresa May will speak to French president Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening ahead of the European Council meeting, Downing Street has confirmed. As the Press Association reports, Macron told a press conference in Paris that he would discuss Brexit with the prime minister ahead of Wednesday’s two-day summit. Her official spokesman confirmed they were to speak by telephone, and said she had also recently spoken with German chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch premier Mark Rutte. He added:

She has had, as she does ahead of any European council summit, conversations with some European leaders in recent days and she will be having more in the days to come.

Brexit looking 'a bit more difficult', says Merkel

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said today that Brexit is looking “a bit more difficult”, Reuters reports.

Here is some Twitter comment on May’s statement.

From Sky’s Faisal Islam

From the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot

From Politico Europe’s Tom McTague

From Steve Richards

From the Spectator’s Katy Balls

These are from the BBC’s Adam Fleming in Brussels.

The May statement is over.

I will be posting reaction and a summary soon.

This is from the Labour MP Jonathan Reynolds.

The Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle asks May to back the principle of a “third referendum”. People normally refer to a second one, but he is taking the 1975 one as the first, and the 2016 one as the second.

May says she has made her views known already.

In a blog on May’s statement the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush says there is an inherent contradiction in what May is saying about the Irish backstop (see 4.36pm) that makes a no deal Brexit more likely. Here’s an excerpt.

May acknowledged that the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland require an “insurance policy” as far as the border goes, but then proposed a series of measures that would hole that insurance policy below the waterline: by giving a future British government a variety of ways to extricate itself from the process. Of course, the point of the backstop is to guarantee that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland remains unchanged come what may: by definition if it contains ways that the United Kingdom can exit unilaterally, that no longer applies.

Labour’s Toby Perkins says there are almost no MPs in the Commons who back May’s Chequers plan.

Matt Warman, a Conservative, says any democrat should reject a second vote.

May says there was a very real debate during the referendum. She believes delivering on that vote is a matter of faith in politicians.

Alberto Costa, a Conservative, asks May to repeat the commitment she made in her Downing Street statement after Salzburg to guarantee the rights of EU nationals living in the UK in the event of there being no deal.

May says she is happy to repeat that commitment.

Martin Whitfield, the Labour MP, asks May to rule out an indefinite backstop with a notice period.

May says she will not agree to an indefinite backstop. She reads out again what she said on this in her opening statement. (See 4.36pm.)

Charlie Elphicke, the suspended Tory now sitting as an independent, asks if the UK will have to pay more than the £39bn agreed if it effectively stays in the customs union after December 2020.

May says Elphicke is referring to the UK-wide backstop, not to the transition. But she says she hopes that will not prove necessary.

  • May refuses to rule out UK having to pay more than the £39bn “divorce bill” agreed if the UK-wide Irish backstop gets activated.

Labour’s Geraint Davies says the Tories have broken the promise in their 2015 manifesto to stay in the single market. So shouldn’t there be a people’s vote.

May says she has answered this already.

Sarah Wollaston, a Conservative, says people did not know what Brexit they were getting when they voted in the referendum. Wouldn’t it make sense to give them a choice in a referendum.

May says MPs should respect the result of the referendum. She is continuing to work for a deal, she says.

Asked if the UK will have the sole right to decide if it leaves the Irish backstop, May says the UK must be able to decide when it ends. She says she understands the concern that, if the EU has the final say, it will never let the UK leave.

Labour’s Chris Bryant asks which queue will UK passport holders use when they land in France, Spain or Greece, and vice versa?

May says the Home Office is still considering the arrangements this end. What happens in other countries is a matter for them, she says.

Sir Desmond Swayne, a Conservative, asks for an assurance that the UK would be able to end any backstop agreement.

May says the backstop would have to be temporary.

Asked again about a second referendum, May says if MPs were to vote down her deal, the government would have to see what the Commons wanted to do next.

  • May hints that, if the Commons were to vote for a second referendum, the government would consider it.

This is slightly different from what she was saying about a second referendum earlier, and so it is not clear who much we should read into it.

I will post the exact quote later.

UPDATE: Here is the gist of it.

Updated

Theresa May's opening statement - Summary

Here are the main points from Theresa May’s opening statement.

  • May said the UK must be able to extricate itself from the Irish backstop.

I need to be able to look the British people in the eye and say this backstop is a temporary solution. People are rightly concerned that what is only meant to be temporary could become a permanent limbo – with no new relationship between the UK and the EU ever agreed.

I am clear we are not going to be trapped permanently in a single customs territory unable to do meaningful trade deals.

So it must be the case, first, that the backstop should not need to come into force.

Second, that if it does, it must be temporary.

And third – while I do not believe this will be the case - if the EU were not to co-operate on our future relationship, we must be able to ensure that we cannot be kept in this backstop arrangement indefinitely.

I would not expect this House to agree to a deal unless we have the reassurance that the UK, as a sovereign nation, has this say over our arrangements with the EU.

  • She said the EU had agreed to consider a UK-wide Irish backstop. But it was insisting on a “backstop to the backstop”, she said.

Previously the European Union had proposed a backstop that would see Northern Ireland carved off in the EU’s customs union and parts of the single market, separated through a border in the Irish Sea from the UK’s own internal market.

As I have said many times, I could never accept that, no matter how unlikely such a scenario may be.

Creating any form of customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would mean a fundamental change in the day-to-day experience for businesses in Northern Ireland – with the potential to affect jobs and investment.

We published our proposals on customs in the backstop in June and after Salzburg I said we would bring forward our own further proposals – and that is what we have done in these negotiations.

And the European Union have responded positively by agreeing to explore a UK-wide customs solution to this backstop.

But Mr Speaker, two problems remain.

First, the EU says there is not time to work out the detail of this UK-wide solution in the next few weeks. So even with the progress we have made, the EU still requires a “backstop to the backstop” – effectively an insurance policy for the insurance policy.

And they want this to be the Northern Ireland-only solution that they had previously proposed.

We have been clear that we cannot agree to anything that threatens the integrity of our United Kingdom.

May also said an amendment to the customs bill would make a customs border in the Irish Sea illegal.

  • She said she did not think the UK and the EU were “far apart” in the talks.

I do not believe the UK and the EU are far apart.

We both agree that Article 50 cannot provide the legal basis for a permanent relationship.

And we both agree this backstop must be temporary. So we must now work together to give effect to that agreement.

  • She said that the government had achieved “good progress” negotiating the withdrawal agreement, and that there was “broad agreement on the structure and scope” of the future trade relationship.

We have now made good progress on text concerning the majority of the outstanding issues.

Taken together, the shape of a deal across the vast majority of the withdrawal agreement - the terms of our exit - are now clear.

We also have broad agreement on the structure and scope of the framework for our future relationship, with progress on issues like security, transport and services.

  • She said she hoped “cool, calm heads” would prevail.

We are entering the final stages of these negotiations. This is the time for cool, calm heads to prevail. And it is the time for a clear-eyed focus on the few remaining but critical issues that are still to be agreed.

  • She said she thought a deal was “achievable”.

Updated

Stephen Crabb, the Conservative former cabinet minister, asks May for an assurance that the document spelling out the future relationship will be clear and binding.

May says it must be clear so MPs know what they are backing.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leading Tory Brexiter, asks why British negotiators ignored the point about having a customs border down the Irish Sea being illegal.

May says her negotiators did not ignore that.

Leading Tory pro-European Dominic Grieve says he will not vote for May’s Chequers plan unless she offers a second referendum

Dominic Grieve, the Conservative pro-European, says May’s Chequers plan would keep the UK bound by the EU rulebook. That would be a state of vassalage. He says he will not vote for the plan unless the government offers another referendum.

  • Leading Tory pro-European Dominic Grieve says he will not vote for May’s Chequers plan unless she offers a second referendum.

Labour’s Angela Eagle asks May if she agrees with Sammy Wilson that a no deal Brexit is almost inevitable.

May says she is working for a good deal.

Turning away from the May statement for a moment, Reuters is reporting that AstraZeneca has suspended investments in Britain due to lack of clarity over Brexit, the pharmaceutical firm’s non-executive chairman Leif Johansson told France’s Le Monde newspaper.

Chris Leslie, the Labour MP, says May is dancing to the tune of the Tory Brexiters.

Will May agree to respect any vote by MPs to put this decision to a people’s vote?

May says the government has set out what will happen if the Commons does not vote for the deal.

Labour’s Ben Bradshaw asks if May has ever been tempted to have a people’s vote.

May says the people have had a vote. They voted to leave.

May refuses to commit to including specific end date in Irish backstop

Labour’s Liz Kendall asks if there will be a specific end date in the Irish backstop.

May says the backstop must be temporary. It cannot be permanent, she says.

  • May refuses to commit to including a specific end date in the Irish backstop.

Nicky Morgan, the Tory pro-European, says some MPs want a no deal outcome. Will May rule that out? The Commons would not support it.

May says she is clear that she is working to get a good deal.

But she is continuing to plan for no deal too.

Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, quotes someone saying ‘We cannot accept any deal that creates a border in the Irish Sea’. That was Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader. Will May rule out hiving off Northern Ireland, either in the single market or the customs union?

May says she has been very clear that she will not accept a hard border. The Irish plan would have carved Northern Ireland off. She wants Northern Ireland businesses to be able to trade with Ireland and Great Britain.

Anna Soubry, the Tory pro-European, says leave voters were promised a trade deal before Brexit, not after. And they were told that it would be the easiest deal ever, offering the exact same terms as EU membership brings. Will May back a people’s vote?

May says the people voted to leave the EU. It is a matter of faith that parliament delivers on that vote, she says.

Labour’s Yvette Cooper says MPs are worried the government will delay a deal until the last moment, to bounce MPs into agreeing. So will May agree that extending article 50 would be better than crashing out with no deal.

May says she is opposed to extending article 50. The government will not be doing that, she says.

  • May says she is opposed to extending article 50 to delay Brexit.

Updated

Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm that, if the UK extends the transition beyond December 2020, it will have to contribute to the next EU budget.

May says she wants to make sure that any deal is the best for the future of the UK.

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, asks why May is making this statement. It does not advance our understanding.

May says the Lib Dems complain about May not coming to the Commons to update MPs, and now Cable is complaining about her being here.

Updated

Labour’s Hilary Benn, chair of the Brexit committee, asks May when she will tell her party that she cannot set an absolute deadline for the backstop.

May says she wants to work to ensure it never has to come into place.

May refuses to give firm guarantee Irish backstop would definitely end by December 2021

Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, says in wanting to stay in the customs union Jeremy Corbyn is guilty of a shameless U-turn. He asks May to confirm that December 2021 will be the backstop deadline.

May says Johnson is right in his criticicsm of Corbyn.

May says the expectation is that the backstop would last until December 2021. One of the issues in the talks is how to reflect the temporary nature of the backstop. She wants to ensure it is never needed, making January 2021 the deadline.

  • May refuses to give a firm guarantee that the Irish backstop would definitely end by December 2021.

Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory Brexiter, asks when the backstop might end.

May says the government said in its June paper on the backstop that it envisaged it lasting until December 2021.

Here is some reaction to May’s statement.

From the Times’ Matt Chorley

From Politico Europe’s Tom McTague

From the Times’ Sam Coates

From CityAM’s Owen Bennett

From the Times’ Patrick Kidd

May is responding to Corbyn.

She says the Labour party never says what deal it wants.

She says, even if the UK stayed in the customs union, there would still have to be a backstop.

She says the government is clear about its commitment to the people of Northern Ireland.

Corbyn ask who long the transition could last.

He says May’s “blindfold Brexit” is a “bridge to nowhere”.

He says May is offering a choice between her deal and a no deal. But there is an alternative, he says.

He says Labour wants a deal that would work for the regions.

It will not give the government a blank cheque, he says.

If the government cannot get a good deal, it has to make way for those who can, he says.

He says the PM faces a choice: be buffeted by her party, or back a deal that can win the support of parliament and the country.

Corbyn says red line after red line has been surrended.

The Chequers plan appears to be “dead in the water’, he says.

She did not even mention in her conference speech, he says.

He says there is a Brexit deal acceptable to the country. But it is not her deal.

  • Corbyn suggests Labour’s Brexit plan would be acceptable to the country.

He says we need a leader who puts the country before party.

He says May is being held hostage by MPs who want a race to the bottom on rights.

Jeremy Corbyn is responding to May.

He says:

This really is beginning to feel like Groundhog Day.

There are less than six months to go. But what have we got to show for it?

Yesterday we saw another minister coming back with his tail between his legs because o Tory disunity, he says.

May says these talks are technical.

But they affect jobs and livelihoods in this country.

It is frustrating that there is a disagreement over something that both sides hope will never be needed.

She says she continues to think a deal is achievable.

May says there has also been progress on Northern Ireland.

She says both sides want life to be able to carry on there as now.

They want the final relationship to ensure that no hard border is needed.

But a backstop may be required to span the gap before that comes in, she says.

She says she could not accept the EU proposal for a backstop that would keep Northern Ireland alone in the single market and the customs union.

The UK published its own plan in June, she says. And she put forward extra idea in the talks.

  • May says the EU has agreed to consider a UK-wide backstop. The EU’s original backstop plan was Northern Ireland-specific.

May says there are two problems.

The EU is demanding “a backstop to the backstop”, she says; ie, it wants Northern Ireland to comply with single market regulation, as well as the UK being in the custom union.

That would not be allowed under the terms of the amendment to the customs bill passed in July, she says.

And she says the UK cannot accept a backstop that could go on forever.

Theresa May's Brexit statement

Theresa May is making her Brexit statement now.

She says we are entering the final staves.

This is the time for cool, calm heads to prevail and it’s the time for a clear-eyed focus on the few remaining but critical issues that are still to be agreed.

She says there has been “a great deal of inaccurate speculation” about what has been going on.

First, they have made real progress towards the withdrawal agreement and the future trade relationship.

The terms of the exit are clear, she says.

And there is broad agreement on the structure of the final relationship, she says.

Updated

Here is the Telegraph’s Peter Foster on how yesterday’s deadlock in the Brexit talks may have been choreographed in one sense, but not in another.

Frank Field claims botched universal credit roll out is forcing some women into prostitution

Esther McVey has strongly hinted that she is pressuring Philip Hammond for more money for universal credit and other benefits in this month’s budget, telling MPs she would be “championing” the needs of claimants.

In the first departmental question session since McVey herself conceded that the wider rollout of UC would see some claimants worse off, the work and pension secretary saw several questions about UC and the impact of the wider benefits freeze.

Neil Gray, the SNP’s work and pensions spokesman, asked McVey is she had asked the chancellor for more funding for UC in the budget. She answered:

Of course I don’t let people know what we do in private meetings, old fashioned as that might be. But what he can know is I am championing UC to make sure that it works the best it can possibly can work. Take from that as you will.

She reiterated the point when Labour MP Karen Buck asked if McVey was seeking to alleviate the benefits freeze. McVey said:

Again, I won’t be saying exactly what I’ve been saying in private conversations, but you can sure I will be championing our claimants, and making sure that what we do is fair to claimants and the taxpayer.

The exchanges also saw an eye-catching intervention from Frank Field, the veteran Labour – and now independent – MP who chairs the work and pension committee. He said that some women in his Birkenhead constituency had been pushed into sex work because of the local rollout of UC.

Urging McVey to visit the area, Field said that in Birkenhead ”it’s not going as well as we’re told in the House of Commons, and where some women have taken to the red light district for the first time.”

In his message to colleagues (see 2.47pm) the leading Brexiter Steve Baker commends a report from the Open Europe thinktank today claiming a no deal Brexit would be “a relatively mild negative economic event”. It says:

Our model suggests that a No Deal Brexit would mean the UK economy continuing to grow but with an effect equivalent to an average annual drag of -0.17% on real GDP growth over the 13 years up to 2030. This could be reduced to an average reduction in growth of -0.04% a year if the government deploys maximum mitigation measures in the form of unilateral trade liberalisation. The economic impact of an exit on so-called WTO terms is, over a 13 year period, small. And as we go on to demonstrate, the effects are limited in comparison with the forecasting noise typically seen in GDP models.

However the report also says its model does not take into account “the sector-specific impact [of a no deal Brexit] on deeply integrated UK-EU supply chains, such as on the automotive sector, which is likely to be negative”. Many people would cite this as one of the most damaging aspects of a no deal Brexit, although Open Europe says it thinks the impact of this would be small compared to other, long-term impacts.

The Telegraph’s James Rothwell has posted a useful Twitter thread on what EU sources are saying about the Brexit talks. It starts here. He says EU figures think the Dominic Raab talks walkout yesterday was cosmetic (as Steve Baker claims - see 2.47pm.)

Rothwell also says some on the EU side think the Tory Brexiters and DUP will eventually compromise when faced with the threat of a no deal Brexit. The Brexiters and the DUP, of course, are saying the opposite. (See 10.42am.)

(The EU optimists may be underestimating quite how important saying no has been in DUP politics.)

Pro-independence activists have launched a fund-raising drive for a new campaign with the sole aim of pushing support for a yes vote to above 50%, with Nicola Sturgeon continuing to delay her decision on the timing of a new referendum.

The Scottish Independence Convention, a veteran umbrella organisation which includes nearly every significant group in the yes movement, including the Scottish National party, Scottish Greens and Women for Independence, wants to hire full-time campaigners.

It has yet to decide on a new name, but the convention said it has already retained “a top design agency to help develop these plans and also large-scale in-depth public engagement research to provide the new campaign body with the best start possible.”

Sturgeon, backed by her Brexit secretary Mike Russell, challenged yes campaigners to put far more energy into persuading neutrals, no voters and undecideds that independence was Scotland’s best option post Brexit in her party conference speech last week.

Russell was quite blunt, saying independence “isn’t just about grabbing a lifeboat in choppy and dangerous seas”. The party had to wait until “our country is persuaded, ready and determined to win”, he said.

If it gets set up, it has challenges and advantages. Firstly, the off-repeated headline figure that the yes vote is close to 50% is misleading. The polls show show support for independence hovering at 41% to 43% with no at 49% to 53%, with don’t knows included. With don’t knows removed, the gap between yes and no has ranged from 6% to 12% since June. The highest net yes vote this year was at 48% in March.

The polls do show yes support inching upwards if voters are asked about a hard Brexit, yet no poll shows a majority for a referendum in the immediate future: Sturgeon’s position is hedged entirely around Brexit going badly, and that in turn fueling consistent and significant discontent with the union.

But the independence movement has a distinct advantage over its opponents: it shows a high degree of unity of purpose. Its members do disagree over tactics and political philosophy, but Labour and the Tories will find it extremely hard to work together in a second anti-independence campaign.

Labour, now further to the left than in 2014, was very badly burnt by the “red Tory” smear put about by its opponents for collaborating with the Tories in Better Together last time. Some Labour voters flipped to the SNP in protest. It will not repeat the experience.

Leading Tory Brexiter claims deadlock in Brexit talks is being staged

According to ITV’s Robert Peston, the former Brexit minister Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, the Tory caucus pushing for a harder Brexit, has told colleagues that the collapse of the Brexit talks yesterday was “almost certainly theatre”.

Steve Baker
Steve Baker Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images

Lunchtime summary

  • Downing Street has said that Theresa May will deliver a statement to MPs at 3.30pm about Brexit following the talks ending in deadlock yesterday. The Brussels impasse heightened speculation that the negotiations will not succeed, and that the UK will end up leaving without a deal, although this morning Downing Street insisted the government remained confident of getting a deal. (See 1.32pm.) Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has also urged people to “be patient”. (See 1.40pm.) Downing Street also restated May’s determination that the Irish backstop in the deal must be temporary (see 1.32pm) and May is likely to make this point to MPs, to counter claims from Tory Brexiters and the DUP that she is compromising too much.
  • Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has called for the article 50 process to be extended, saying that a “blindford Brexit” would be unacceptable. (See 12.48pm.) In a speech in London she said:

As the crucial vote looms closer, it is also time for individual members of the House of Commons to consider what compromises they see as justified - and which are not - if they are to serve their constituents, and the wider public interest. If they do that, I believe that a commonsense outcome could yet be found.

For MPs to support a bad or blindfold Brexit - a cobbled-together withdrawal agreement and a vague statement about our future relationship - would, in my view, be a dereliction of duty.

  • Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, has said that a Brexit deal could be delayed until December. Speaking in Dublin he said:

We are at a sensitive phase and I know some people were optimistic about an agreement on the withdrawal protocol this week. I have to say I always thought that was unlikely. I figure November or December the best opportunity for a deal.

Updated

Sinn Fein says it will demand border poll if UK leaves EU with no deal

Sinn Fein’s leader Mary Lou McDonald will tell Theresa May that she will demand a referendum on the future of Northern Ireland if there is no deal on Brexit as a hard border would be erected the instant the UK crashes out of the EU under World Trade Organisation rules.

McDonald said that the damage of a hard border would be so great to peace and prosperity on the island of Ireland, the Irish would not just sit back and allow that to happen.

If that happens and I very much hope that it doesn’t but if, by accident or design, there is a crash or a no-deal Brexit, Mrs May and whoever is in No 10 needs to understand that in those circumstances the constitutional question would have to be put to the people of Ireland. There would have to be a border poll, yes.

You could not countenance such damage and disruption to our island and imagine that we will simply be philosophical about it and move on,” she told the Guardian in an interview.

The principle of self-determination for the people of Northern Ireland is enshrined in the Good Friday peace agreement and allows for a border poll if there is evidence that a majority in Northern Ireland would support reunification of the island.

The government has said it would not put in border controls in the event of no deal but under World Trade Organisation arrangements, border controls would be automatic between the UK and Ireland, an issue that has been largely unheeded in Brexit talks.

McDonald was speaking ahead of her meeting the prime minister.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Updated

'Be patient', says Barnier after Brexit talks stall

Sky News has doorstepped Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, to try to get his take on the significance of the talks breaking down in Brussels yesterday. He was not very forthcoming, but he did tell them: “Be patient.”

In the circumstances, that is probably relatively upbeat. Just imagine what else he might have said ....

This is from Sky’s Mark Stone.

Downing Street lobby briefing - Summary

Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

  • Theresa May will make a statement to MPs about Brexit at 3.30pm, the prime minister’s spokesman said. May’s will be the first of three ministerial statements in the Commons this afternoon.
  • The spokesman played down the significance of the Brexit talks ending without an agreement in Brussels yesterday. He said:

We have made real progress in a number of key areas. However, there remain a number of unresolved issues relating to the backstop. The European Union and the UK are both clear that they want to secure a good deal and that is what both sides are working towards.

We remain confident of getting a deal because it is in the interests of both the UK and the European Union. We’ve said that we want to continue to make progress in the coming days and weeks. That’s what we are focused on.

  • The spokesman said that reports that a deal had been reached on Sunday at officials’ level, only for it to fall apart when Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, met Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, at the political level, should be “taken with a pinch of salt”.

The EU continues to insist on the possibility of a customs border down the Irish Sea. This is something which parliament has already unanimously rejected and is not acceptable to the prime minister.

  • The spokesman said May wanted to be able to “look the British people in the eye” and tell them the Irish backstop would be temporary. He said:

I would also make the point that we need to be able to look the British people in the eye and say the backstop is a temporary solution. We are not going to be stuck permanently in a single customs territory unable to do meaningful trade deals.

  • The spokesman said the government considered ‘time-limited” and “temporary” to mean the same thing in relation to the Irish backstop.
  • The spokesman would not say whether or not May will address EU leaders before they hold a dinner without her on Wednesday night to discuss Brexit. Those details were to be confirmed, the spokesman said
10 Downing Street
10 Downing Street Photograph: Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

There are no urgent questions today, so the Theresa May Commons statement on Brexit will start soon after 3.30pm.

Patricia Hollis, a member of the House of Lords and a long-standing and well-respected welfare minister in the Blair government, has died, Labour has announced.

Scottish government says 21-month transition period should be extended

Here is the 40-page paper (pdf) published by the Scottish government today setting out an alternative Brexit plan.

It restates the Scottish government’s belief that a) staying in the EU would be best, but that if that is not possible; b) the whole of the UK should stay in the single market and the customs union, but that if that is not possible; c) Scotland should stay in the European Economic Area. This final option, a Scotland-only Norway option, was set out at length in a Scottish government paper in December 2016, summarised here.

Today’s paper calls for an extension of article 50, to allow more time for an acceptable Brexit to be negotiated and to allow time for a referendum if necessary. It says:

If the UK government refuses to remain in the European single market and customs union, the Scottish government demands that the UK government seeks an extension to the article 50 process to allow for a consensus across the UK on a less damaging approach to be agreed, thereby avoiding a hurried and damaging exit. This could be embodied in a revised EU/UK political declaration and the UK implementing legislation should bind the UK to that approach. This would avoid the dangers posed by a blindfold Brexit resulting from a high-level political declaration. Such an extension would also provide an opportunity for another EU referendum on Brexit if the UK parliament agreed. Proposals should also explore how it could be ensured that Scotland would not again be in the situation where should we vote to remain, while other areas of the UK chose to leave, we would nevertheless be taken out of the EU against our will.

The new paper also says the proposed 21-month transition should be extended.

The Scottish government also proposes that the withdrawal agreement makes provision for an extension of the implementation (or transition) period beyond December 2020. It is wholly unrealistic to expect a comprehensive future economic agreement with the EU to be secured within two years. Failure to build in such flexibility will simply create another potential period of instability towards the end of 2020.

Nicola Sturgeon speaking at the RSA thinktank this morning.
Nicola Sturgeon speaking at the RSA thinktank this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Katya Adler also says that EU sources are claiming that the UK government blocked discussion of the Irish backstop in the Brexit talks for months because it was too politically sensitive.

Katya Adler, the BBC’s Europe editor, says diplomats in Brussels are not too worried about the breakdown in the Brexit talks yesterday.

Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, is holding talks with Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg this morning with Brexit high on the agenda.

The meeting with Simon Coveney started before 11am and is expected to last around an hour.

Coveney, who is also Ireland’s foreign minister, has said that a time limited backstop is a “deal breaker” but is confident that a deal can still be reached to keep the Irish border open and invisible after Brexit through a combination of the withdrawal agreement and political agreement.

The Irish government is said to be “calm” about the collapse of talks yesterday.

They feel that it was clear last week that it was “impossible” to achieve a deal for the EU council summit and will be pushing heads of state at the meeting on Thursday to “give it one more opportunity” with a full Brexit summit in November.

Coveney’s view is that the optimism over last week’s talks was misplaced.

In reference to the confidential meetings between officials on both sided last week, sources said that “not everything that happened in the tunnel was bad” and there was no need “throw the baby out with the bathwater”.

The French president Emanuel Macron has previously stated that the November meeting should not happen unless enough progress has been made on the Irish border.

Sturgeon calls for Brexit transition to be extended

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has just finished a speech on Brexit at the RSA thinktank in London. My colleague Pippa Crerar has tweeted these from the event.

Sturgeon is now taking questions. There is a live feed here.

Updated

My colleague Peter Walker has tweeted out more excerpts from the Cox report.

Bullying and sexual harassment in parliament has been tolerated 'from the top down', says report

The House of Commons authorities have this morning published the independent report into the bullying of Commons staff compiled by Dame Laura Cox. You can read it here (pdf).

Here is my colleague Jessica Elgot’s story about its findings.

Cox did not investigate specific allegations about named individuals. But her findings are nevertheless quite damning. Here is an extract from Cox’s opening statement.

The nature and extent of the allegations of bullying, harassment and sexual harassment, made against other members of House staff as well as against some members of parliament, are disturbing, and the effects of such misconduct have been exacerbated by the inadequate procedures in place to tackle them. Extensive experience in the field of employment law over several decades, involving many 4 different public and private sector employers, marks the House out as a stark reminder of how bad things used to be ...

Members of Parliament are elected representatives, but their mandate does not entitle them to bully or harass those who are employed in the House to support and assist them.

Amongst current and former staff alike there is an obvious pride and affection for the House and its status. Working there is, for many, a privilege – whether as a member of House staff or as an elected Member of Parliament - and there is an expectation of loyalty to the institution they serve. But that sense of loyalty has been tested to breaking point by a culture, cascading from the top down, of deference, subservience, acquiescence and silence, in which bullying, harassment and sexual harassment have been able to thrive and have long been tolerated and concealed ...

Underpinning all the recommendations in this report is the need for broad cultural change in the House and the need to restore the trust and confidence of the staff and of the wider public. Delivering fundamental and permanent change will require a focus and a genuine commitment on the part of the leadership of the House. However, the inescapable conclusion from the views expressed during this inquiry is that it will be extremely difficult to build confidence that there will be fundamental change when the levers of change are regarded as part of the change that is needed.

Whoever is ultimately responsible for delivering this change, there has to be, at the outset, an honest and open acknowledgment at senior level of the failings of the past and of the need to rebuild trust and restore the confidence of all those who work for the House.

Theresa May to make statement to MPs this afternoon about Brexit talks

I’m just back from the lobby briefing. And we got some news.

  • Theresa May will make a statement to MPs this afternoon about the Brexit talks. Prime ministers always make Commons statements after EU summits. But to give one two days before a summit is very unusual. Perhaps she intends to lay down some negotiating red lines. The statement will start at 3.30, unless there are urgent questions, in which case it will be delayed for half an hour or more.

I will post a full summary soon.

Boris Johnson accuses EU of treating UK with 'naked contempt'

And Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, has also got his weekly column in the Telegraph today (paywall). He has used it to restate his opposition to Theresa May’s Brexit plans, but he seems to have escalated his contempt for the EU. He is now accusing them of acting like bullies, and of treating the UK with “naked contempt”. He says:

There comes a point when you have to stand up to bullies. After more than two years of being ruthlessly pushed around by the EU, it is time for the UK to resist ...

In presuming to change the constitutional arrangements of the United Kingdom, the EU is treating us with naked contempt. Like some chess player triumphantly forking our king and our queen, the EU Commission is offering the UK government what appears to be a binary choice.

It is a choice between the break-up of this country, or the subjugation of this country, between separation or submission. It is between treating Northern Ireland as an economic colony of the EU, or treating the whole of the UK as such a colony. It is a choice between protecting the Union or saving Brexit. It is a choice between two exquisitely embarrassing varieties of humiliation.

He also says it was “completely wrong” for the government to agree to the backstop plan in the joint report published in December. He says:

It was completely wrong of the government to agree this so-called Northern Irish “backstop”on December 8 last year, and those of us who had doubts at the time have been more than vindicated. We were told that it was just a form of words; we were told that it was merely temporary; we were told that these were redundant phrases that would never be invoked. As it is, that Irish backstop has been turned into the means of frustrating Brexit, because the alternative is even worse.

The last time he made a similar point Number 10 pointed out that he did not object at the time, when he was serving in the government as foreign secretary.

I’m off to the Number 10 lobby briefing now. I will post again after 11.30am.

Boris Johnson.
Boris Johnson. Photograph: Steve Parkins/REX/Shutterstock

Dodds says DUP not bluffing in their opposition to Irish backstop plan

In an article for the Daily Telegraph (paywall) Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s leader at Westminster, says the DUP are not bluffing when they say could never accept the Irish backstop plans as currently proposed. He says:

One part of the UK cannot be left behind, bound to rules set in Brussels. The constitutional and economic consequences of such an approach would be catastrophic in the long run.

The importance of what is decided on the backstop issue cannot be understated. This backstop is going to be legally operational and binding, unlike the political declaration on any future trading relationship. And what is being proposed would bind the UK and Northern Ireland into a trap whereby Northern Ireland remains subject to certain Single Market rules and the UK including Northern Ireland remains in the Custom Union unless and until the EU decides that something better comes along that they can agree with.

That is why the issue of a time limit is so important. How can we hand over the decision on our future trading and economic future to the EU ...

Let me be clear again - we will not be party to the abandonment of fundamental principles and harm to the Union to be codified forever in a withdrawal agreement. We could not support such a proposition. Bluff? We don’t gamble with the Union.

Nigel Dodds
Nigel Dodds Photograph: Paul Davey / Barcroft Images

This is from Sky’s Deborah Haynes, who is at the EU foreign affairs council in Luxembourg.

When Karin Kneissl, the Austrian foreign minister, arrived at the EU foreign affairs council in Luxembourg, she told reporters that “everything [in the Brexit talks] is on suspense until Wednesday”. She went on:

On Wednesday I hope that we can see it a bit more clearly.

Asked about the chances of a deal, she said about 10 to 15% of the withdrawal agreement was “in limbo”. A lot depended on whether the British government and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, could obtain a “rapprochement”, she said.

Karin Kneissl
Karin Kneissl Photograph: EU

Updated

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, will meet the Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar for a private dinner in Dublin this evening, the Press Association says. The PA report goes on:

It is understood she will stress a desire for a strong relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to continue post-Brexit.

She will tell Varadkar that she wants to see a deal that works for both jurisdictions.

It is understood Foster will seek to strike a conciliatory tone with Varadkar after a year that has seen relations between the pair fray over Brexit.

On her visit to the Irish capital, Foster will also meet Micheal Martin, the leader of main opposition party Fianna Fail.

She also will meet a leading cardiologist to discuss a cross-border heart service that treats children from both sides of the border and visit St Patrick’s Church of Ireland cathedral.

Leo Varadkar and Arlene Foster photographed in June.
Leo Varadkar and Arlene Foster photographed in June. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

No deal Brexit 'probably inevitable', says DUP

Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, has described a no deal Brexit as “probably inevitable”, the Belfast News Letter reports. Wilson said:

Given the way in which the EU has behaved and the corner they’ve put Theresa May into, there’s no deal which I can see at present which will command a majority in the House of Commons.So it is probably inevitable that we will end up with a no deal scenario.

I think that anybody looking at it objectively would say that what is on offer from the EU is a far worse deal than a no deal, and therefore she’d be mad to be railroaded into accepting it.

Sammy Wilson
Sammy Wilson Photograph: Michael McHugh/PA

Updated

Hunt says May will never sign Brexit deal 'not compatible with letter and spirit of referendum result'

As Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, arrived at the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg (not Brussels, as I wrongly said earlier), he said he thought a deal was still possible. But he also said Theresa May would never agree to a deal incompatible with the EU referendum result. He told reporters:

I think everyone in the UK should have confidence that this prime minister, Theresa May, will never sign a deal that is not compatible with the letter and spirit of the referendum result.

But we also firmly believe that we can find a deal on that basis that works for the European Union and our partners and friends in Europe.

Jeremy Hunt arriving at the EU foreign affairs council meeting in Luxembourg.
Jeremy Hunt arriving at the EU foreign affairs council meeting in Luxembourg. Photograph: Julien Warnand/EPA

Irish foreign minister says backstop 'cannot be time-limited'

EU foreign ministers are meeting in Luxembourg today. On his arrival Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister and deputy prime minister, said that the failure to reach an agreement yesterday was “frustrating and disappointing” and that, effectively, UK and EU negotiators were going to put their talks on hold until after this week’s summit. He told reporters.

I think we are frustrated, but we are still pretty calm about that. I think everybody would like to have seen clarity this week on the withdrawal agreement. Time is moving on. Ratification mechanisms are going to take time, whether that’s in Westminster or in the European parliament.

So I think there was a real effort over the last 10 days by the two negotiating teams to intensify engagement so that they could have a set of recommendations for political leaders this week. That hasn’t proven possible. Yesterday the negotiating teams agreed to disengage, effectively, until after this week’s European council meeting. That is frustrating and disappointing from an Irish perspective, as the country that is more exposed to the fall out of Brexit than any other EU country outside of the UK itself.

We want to see an outcome that settles nerves, that allows us to move ahead with a managed, sensible Brexit. I still think it’s possible to do that, but clearly it’s going to take a bit more time than many people had hoped.

Coveney also said that the UK had already agreed to an Irish backstop, in the joint report agreed in December.

Those commitments have been made in writing by the British government. What we are saying is we want no more and no less than the follow-through of those commitments. That’s what needs to happen. A backstop cannot be time-limited [as the UK is demanding]; that’s new, it has’t been there before. Nobody was suggesting in March that a backstop would be time-limited in terms of picking a date in the future as an endpoint for the backstop.

The backstop will be there unless and until something else is agreed. But unless you have something to replace it, well then the backstop needs to be there as an insurance mechanism. That’s all we’re asking for.

Simon Coveney
Simon Coveney Photograph: EU

Updated

UK accuses EU of trying to impose 'backstop to the backstop'

One of the joys of Brexit as a story is that it is an endless source of new jargon and terminology. And this morning we have a new addition to the collection: “backstop to the backstop”.

This is the phrase that UK government sources have been using to describe what they say the EU is trying to impose on them. This is from the Press Association.

The Brexit talks have run into a “significant problem” over the fraught issue of the Northern Ireland border, government sources have said.

Negotiations are on a knife-edge after a hastily-arranged meeting on Sunday between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab broke up without a breakthrough.

Discussions were said to have broken down after EU negotiators demanded a “backstop to the backstop” to prevent a return of a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Theresa May has proposed the backstop - which would effectively keep Northern Ireland in the single market while a permanent solution is found - should apply to the whole of the UK.

However it is understood the EU is insisting it should be backed up by the original Northern Ireland-only backstop as it first proposed.

That could lead to customs checks on goods travelling between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - effectively imposing a “border in the Irish Sea” - something May has said is unacceptable.

“Backstop to the backstop” is an ingenious piece of branding. It makes it sound as if the EU is demanding something new. But in fact the EU has always argued that the backstop plan - the scheme to avoid a hard border in Ireland, if the overall Brexit trade and customs agreement does not achieve this - should involve Northern Ireland effectively remaining in the single market and the customs union. The British government published a partial plan in June for a backstop involving the UK as a whole effectively staying in the customs union. But this plan did not cover single market regulatory aspects, and the EU said it would not suffice on its own because there would be checks at the border in Ireland unless goods circulating in Northern Ireland complied with single market regulations.

Here is our overnight story about the state of the talks.

Labour are pushing for a Commons statement. Given the chances of the speaker granting an urgent question on this if ministers don’t offer a statement, it is quite likely that we will get some form of statement in the Commons after 3.30pm.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Theresa May meets a charity in south London working to combat loneliness. The visit has been arranged to publicise new government plans giving GPs the ability to refer people to take part in social activities such as cookery classes, walking clubs and art groups to combat loneliness.

10am: The trial of the Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay, who is charged with election spending offences, opens at Southwark crown court.

11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.

11am: The House of Commons publishes the Laura Cox report into to the bullying and harassment of Commons staff.

11.30am: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, gives a speech on Brexit in London. She is also publishing a new paper from the Scottish government setting out an alternative plan for Brexit.

2.30pm: Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

5pm: May meets the Sinn Fein president, Mary Lou McDonald, to discuss Brexit. McDonald and her colleagues are also meeting Jeremy Corbyn.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I finish, at about 6pm.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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