Brexit, Trump, and bad news for Labour: our readers predict 2017

Donald J. Trump (l) will become president. That much we know. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

What kind of year will 2017 be? In terms of politics, there are certain key dates: 20 January, Donald Trump’s inauguration; ‘the end of March’, by which time Theresa May’s government is expected to trigger article 50 and the beginning of the Brexit process; 7 May 2017, by which time we should know if Marine Le Pen has managed to secure the French presidency.

We asked our readers to make predictions for the year ahead. Some of these were optimistic and hopeful. Others were less so.

Below, we present ten of the more interesting reader punts on how 2017 will unfold in their countries. As requested by the readers concerned, each view has been presented anonymously.

Agree? Disagree? You can add predictions of your own in the comments thread below.

1) Brexit won’t happen

Will article 50 be triggered? Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Brexit will not happen. Process to become bogged down in negotiations in Europe, court cases, political debate at Westminister and regional governments. This will force a general election which will lead into a bitter coalition. The public will become even more apathetic.

2) It’ll be a bad year for Labour

Would Labour under Corbyn struggle in a snap general election? Photograph: PA

I think there will be a spring election and Labour will be seriously damaged with heavy losses. However, Jeremy Corbyn will refuse to resign triggering a deeper crisis for Labour. The Conservatives will secure a huge majority, but the picture will be mixed with the other parties. UKIP will gain a handful of seats. The Lib Dems will do well in university towns and cities.

3) We’ll see a continued rise in nationalism

A man walks past a campaign poster of right-populist AfD party reading “It’s enough - Saxony-Anhalt elects AfD” in Magdeburg, Germany. Photograph: Geir Moulson/AP

The twin forces of increased refugee emergencies and increased nationalist tendencies will continue. Violence and environmental degradation will push people toward richer, more developed nations who will in turn seek ways to limit how many “others” are allowed in.

4) Marine Le Pen will win - and trigger chaos

Marine Le Pen, French National Front political party leader, poses near a horse as she visits the Horse show in Villepinte, Paris. Photograph: Jacky Naegelen/Reuters

I’m very concerned about the election of Marine Le Pen in France. She poses a significant threat to the stability of France and the wider world. We play at extremist politics in the UK, the Front National is a very scary prospect.

5) There’ll be a new coalition government in Germany

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told her party she will seek re-election next year. Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images

We will have federal elections in upcoming September 2017 and the far-right party AfD is polling very high which angers and frightens me a lot. After 12 years in office, Angela Merkel seems vulnerable to me. I’m therefore rooting for a coalition change which favours my party the SPD in a strong coalition with The Greens and the Left in order to restore some sanity to the German political discourse and to dismantle the appeal of the AfD by introducing social policies which actually improve people’s lives and don’t put them in danger.

6) We’ll see significant progress in tackling climate change

Defendants pose behind a banner outside Ealing Magistrates Court before appearing on a charge of wilful obstruction after blocking a road near Heathrow Airport in protest at climate change. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Despite Trump’s climate scepticism there will be a broad international push to combat climate change. This push will not just be political, but mostly from companies that will increasingly see the value of investing in sustainable energy

7) Trump to push the US towards isolationism

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump kisses a “Women for Trump” placard during a rally at the Lakeland Linder Regional Airport in Lakeland, Florida on October 12, 2016. Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Trump will very quickly alienate world leaders, including Putin, which will feel very scary. America will lose influence to the Chinese and Russians, who will gain significant momentum.

8) Turkey under Erdoğan will become increasingly authoritarian

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers a speech during the opening ceremony of the Eurasia Tunnel. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

In Turkey, I expect to see further repression by Erdoğan, especially of the Kurds, curbing of free speech, a major break away from earlier ambitions to join the European Community and the growth of dissent among large numbers of the Turkish population.

9) Ireland will see an ugly abortion campaign

Members of the pro-life groups, Youth Defence and the Life Institute hold a picket outside Leinster House, Dublin, ahead of a scheduled debate for the Dail on a Private Members Bill proposed by Clare Daly and Mick Wallace which seeks to legalise abortion in Ireland. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Abortion will dominate the public discourse and an ugly campaign is coming. There is every likelihood that the FF-FG pact will collapse around some issue so an election is reasonably likely, depending on how well equipped both are to go to the polls. Brexit will also be front and centre for Ireland as we try to fight a hard border with the North and protect our exports to Britain.

10) Duterte will increase his grip on power

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte reviews the troops as he leads the flag-raising ceremony to commemorate the 120th death anniversary of the country’s national hero Jose P. Rizal. Photograph: Bullit Marquez/AP

In the Philippines, there will be an ongoing slaughter of poor people caught up in the drugs trade. Duterte wishes to impose his moral code on the people without providing resources to reduce poverty, improve education and increase jobs. He has total control of the media, armed forces and police.

What do you think will happen in 2017? Share your predictions in the open thread below