Closing summary
- The Cabinet Office is to launch an inquiry into explosive claims that Priti Patel lied and bullied officials in several government departments, Michael Gove has told MPs. See 5.11pm for an analysis of how serious this is for Patel.
- An overwhelming majority of doctors fear the NHS is not well prepared to deal with a major outbreak of coronavirus, a survey has found. There is full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak on our separate live blog.
- Labour has called for all workers who have to self-isolate to be guaranteed paid sick leave or sick pay from day one, as part of a five-point plan for dealing with coronavirus. The Labour leadership candidate Lisa Nandy has also been making the same argument.
The threat of coronavirus is concerning enough without worrying it will leave you without money for rent and food. https://t.co/kp3AVw9fg0
— Lisa Nandy (@lisanandy) March 2, 2020
Workers on insecure contracts, those with unscrupulous employers or the bogus self-employed in the gig economy are being left to fend for themselves and make unnecessarily difficult choices. Self-isolation for some means no sick pay. https://t.co/ZJi1jbrhAq
— Lisa Nandy (@lisanandy) March 2, 2020
This is a global health crisis and we need to do everything we can to make sure it’s not also a personal and financial tragedy for families in the UK. People must stay at home when they need to.
— Lisa Nandy (@lisanandy) March 2, 2020
Employers need to wake up to their wider responsibilities and the consequences for everyone if ill people are attending work when they should be at home. The government needs to pass emergency legislation to guarantee statutory sick pay from day one for all workers.
— Lisa Nandy (@lisanandy) March 2, 2020
- David Frost, the PM’s chief Europe adviser, has met Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, at the formal start of EU-UK trade talks.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
How serious is the Cabinet Office investigation into Priti Patel? - Summary and analysis
Here are the main points from the Priti Patel urgent question. The home secretary received universal support from the Conservative MPs who intervened, as well as a glowing endorsement from Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister who was answering the UQ on behalf of the government. She is very safe for now - but perhaps not so safe a bit further down the line. Here are the main points.
- Gove announced that there will be a Cabinet Office investigation into Patel. The allegation is that she breached the ministerial code (pdf), which says in paragraph 1.2:
Harassing, bullying or other inappropriate or discriminating behaviour wherever it takes place is not consistent with the ministerial code and will not be tolerated.
In his foreword to the code Boris Johnson also says “there must be no bullying and no harassment”, as well as “no leaking”. Unlike Mark Field, who was suspended as a Foreign Office minister when he was under investigation last year, Patel is not being suspended from her job while this inquiry is going on. Gove also said that it was important for the inquiry to conclude quickly and, although he said Alex Allan, the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, was available to help, Gove did not say Allan would lead the inquiry. All of those factors may favour Patel.
But other aspects of the announcement bode less well for the home secretary. If Allan is not in charge, the inquiry may be led by Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, who will have read a lot of stories over the weekend saying that he has not done enough to protect civil servants. Johnson did not have to order this inquiry; he could have just stuck to the line deployed at this morning’s lobby briefing, which was that Sir Philip Rutnam is suing the government for constructive dismissal and that that tribunal case takes precedence. Gove also confirmed that the Cabinet Office inquiry will consider allegations made against Patel not just during her time as home secretary, but also during her time as international development secretary and and as an employment minister. (See 4.03pm.) And the Cabinet Office inquiry will presumably have to take evidence from Rutnam who, on the basis of his resignation statement, may be a powerful witness. Ultimately it is for the PM to decide if a ministerial is in breach of the ministerial code, and more often than not ministers who are in favour with No 10 tend to get exonerated, but it is by no means automatic that Patel will be cleared.
However, a key factor may be the fact that ...
- Tory MPs rallied firmly to the support of Patel, praising her for implementing the party’s manifesto commitments and portraying her as a victim of sexism rather than a perpetrator of bullying. Many MPs said she was right to take on the establishment. For example, Julian Lewis asked:
How ... Margaret Thatcher would have got on if she has been subjected to the same smears and sexism as have been used against the present Iron Lady in the Home Office?
Those MPs most vocal in their support for Patel were people who, like her, were prominent in the pro-Brexit campaign in 2016, but Patel also received strong backing from MPs elected in 2019. During the exchanges almost the only Conservative who spoke up for civil servants was Gove, who as Cabinet Office minister is responsible for the civil service. He made it clear that he agreed with colleagues who were siding with Patel - at one point he implied she was similar to the great Labour cabinet minister Denis Healey, whom he described as no “shrinking violet” (see 4.01pm) - but Gove also made a point of stressing how much he valued the work of civil servants too.
- Jeremy Corbyn accused Boris Johnson’s administration of being “a government led by bullies, presided over by a part-time prime minister”. In his response to Gove, Corbyn said the Cabinet Office inquiry did not go far enough. An external lawyer should be involved, he said. He also complained that Johnson was not in the Commons to respond to the UQ himself. He concluded saying:
Isn’t the truth, Mr Speaker that this is a government led by bullies, presided over by a part-time prime minister who not only can’t be bothered to turn up but simply won’t take the vital action required when the very integrity and credibility of the government is on the line.
Updated
Andrew Griffith, a Conservative, says if Patel had asked her civil servants to release more prisoners early, or let more migrants enter the country, her officials would not have been briefing against her.
And that’s it. The Priti Patel UQ is over.
I will post a summary soon.
Gove says he was consistently impressed by the energy and dedication shown by civil servants last year preparing for a possible no-deal Brexit. But now Brexit has been done, he claims.
Tim Loughton, a Conservative, says it is surprising that Labour has decided to prioritise this, when the country is also facing coronavirus and flooding. And he says Labour was silent in the face of “industrial-scale” bullying from the Speaker’s chair (by John Berow, he is implying).
Rob Butler, a Conservative, asks what the government will do to ensure civil servants are accountable and are held to be accountable.
Gove says ministers are accountable for what their departments do. But the government also wants to ensure that civil servants get the help they need to deliver.
Dehenna Davison, a Conservative, says this issue should not be allowed to distract the government from delivering on its manifesto commitments.
Richard Fuller, a Conservative, says ministers have the right to expect a basic level of competence from their civil servants.
Adam Afriyie, a Conservative, asks if there will be an investigation into the leaks against the home secretary.
Gove says leaks like this “are to be deprecated”.
Mark Fletcher, a Conservative, says there seems to be a pattern involving the appointment of female home secretaries and vicious briefing against them. Is it the case that men don’t like taking orders from women?
Gove says Fletcher is making an important point. He says the UK has had four powerful and effective women in this role: Jacqui Smith, Theresa May, Amber Rudd and Priti Patel.
Richard Drax, a Conservative, says he hopes the investigation will be concluded quickly.
Gove says it is “vital” that it is carried out as quickly as possible.
Asked about Dominic Cummings’ plans to dismantle the civil service, Gove says he is “not aware” of any such plan.
Labour’s Sarah Jones says Philip Rutnam’s resignation was unprecedented. And she says there is a pattern here; the government is endlessly picking fights.
Gove rejects that claim. Far from being “pugilistic”, the government is concentrating on delivering its manifesto commitments, he says.
Labour’s Hilary Benn asks if there were any complaints about Priti Patel when she was international development secretary and, before that, an employment minister.
Gove says the Cabinet Office inquiry will consider all complaints against Patel.
The Labour MP Stephanie Peacock asks what was the value of the pay-off offered to Sir Philip Rutnam.
Gove says it would be inappropriate to say given that Rutnam is suing the government.
Martin Vickers, a Conservative, says robust exchanges are often described as bullying these days.
Gove says Vickers has a point. He says no one would have accused Denis Healey of being a “shrinking violet”.
But it is also important to ensure people are shown respect in the workplace.
Updated
The Conservative MP Alicia Kearns says she used to work as a civil servant in three government departments. On the day after the Brexit referendum she was told by multiple people in the Foreign Office that the public had got it wrong, she says.
Labour’s Dame Diana Johnson says this is supposed to the the honeymoon period for the government. But within three months it has lost a chancellor and the head of the Home Office, she says.
Gove says different people enjoy different types of honeymoon. What matters is delivering the people’s priorities.
Updated
Owen Paterson, the Tory Brexiter and former cabinet minister, says the policies being pursued by Priti Patel were supported by voters. He says she is being victimised because she is implementing policies opposed by the establishment.
The Tory MP Robert Halfon says Priti Patel is hiring 20,000 more police officers and creating a new immigration system. He says the allegations against her contain a “nasty whiff of an establishment who are trying to stop these policies”.
Gove says Halfon is making a good point.
What Gove said about Cabinet Office investigation into Priti Patel bullying allegations
This is what Michael Gove said in his opening statement about the Cabinet Office now investigation the Priti Patel allegations. He said:
Allegations have been made that the home secretary has breached the ministerial code. The home secretary absolutely rejects these allegations.
The prime minister has expressed his full confidence in her and having worked closely with the home secretary over a number of years, I have the highest regard for her - she is a superb minister doing a great job.
This government always takes any complaints relating to the ministerial code seriously, and in line with the process set out in the ministerial code the prime minister has asked the Cabinet Office to establish the facts.
As is usual, the independent adviser on ministerial interests, Sir Alex Allan, is available to provide advice to the prime minister.
Mark Francois, the Tory Brexiter, says Priti Patel is an “excellent and dynamic home secretary”. He says Corbyn failed to respond to allegations of bullying and antisemitism in the Labour party.
Labour’s Angela Eagle says in all her years as an MP and a minister she has never seen anything like Sir Philip Rutnam’s resignation statement. He effectively called Priti Patel a liar. What will be done to protect civil servants from treatment like this?
Gove says ministers must uphold the ministerial code. Ministers have benefited from candid advice from civil servants.
He says he cannot comment further on the Rutnam case because Rutnam is taking legal action against the government.
Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, has just defended Priti Patel, saying civil servants must carry out the will of the people. He was the third Tory backbencher to do so. Earlier John Redwood said Patel should be allowed to get on with the job, and Julian Lewis said Patel was an “iron lady” like Margaret Thatcher, who was also a victim of sexism.
Joanna Cherry, the SNP’s home affairs spokesman, said Patel was responsible for creating a “hostile environment” not outside the Home Office, but inside it.
Jeremy Corbyn is responding. He says Boris Johnson should have come to the Commons himself to respond.
He says the investigation announced by Gove is not enough. He says outside lawyers should be involved.
He says he was alarmed by reports that Priti Patel told her civil servants to find a way of overturning a court judgment about an extradition case.
He says this is a government “led by bullies”, and presided over by a part-time PM.
Responding, Gove says the PM is in Downing Street leading the response to coronavirus. He is governing in the national interest.
Gove says he is here because he is the minister in charge of the civil service.
He pays tribute to the work of the civil service.
He says the investigation will be robust. Every part of the ministerial code must be adhered to, he says.
He says this government believes that ministers and civil servants must work together.
He says Corbyn referred to media reports. But Corbyn of all people should know how important it is to be wary of what the media report.
He says Patel is working to keep the country safe. That contrasts with what would have happened under Corbyn, he says.
Cabinet Office to investigate allegations about Priti Patel bullying officials, Gove tells MPs
Jeremy Corbyn asks his urgent question. He ask the PM to make a statement on the allegations against Priti Patel, and whether he will order and investigation.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is responding.
He says allegations have been made that Patel breached the ministerial code. The home secretary “absolutely rejects” these allegations.
He says he has the highest regard for her. She is a superb minister, he says.
But he says the PM has asked the Cabinet Office to carry out an investigation to establish the facts. He says Alex Allan, the PM’s independent adviser on ministerial standards, is available to help.
Updated
Urgent question on Priti Patel
Jeremy Corbyn is about to ask an urgent Commons question about Priti Patel, the home secretary, and the claim from Sir Philip Rutnam, the Home Office permanent secretary until he was effectively forced out last week, that Patel has bullied civil servants.
Here is our story about Rutnam’s resignation on Saturday.
Here is the full text of Rutnam’s resignation statement.
And here are key extracts from the statement. Rutnam said:
In the last 10 days I have been the target of a vicious and orchestrated briefing campaign. It has been alleged that I have briefed the media against the home secretary. This, along with many other claims, is completely false.
The home secretary categorically denied any involvement in this campaign to the Cabinet Office. I regret I do not believe her. She has not made the efforts I would expect to dissociate herself from the comments ...
One of my duties as permanent secretary was to protect the health, safety and wellbeing of our 35,000 people. This created tension with the home secretary, and I have encouraged her to change her behaviours.
I have received allegations that her conduct has included shouting and swearing, belittling people, making unreasonable and repeated demands – behaviour that created fear and that needed some bravery to call out.
And the Scottish government has also criticised Liz Truss’s plans for a trade deal with the US. This is from Ivan McKee, the Scottish government’s trade minister.
We have repeatedly called for a proper and meaningful role in any trade arrangements and for the punitive US tariffs on Scottish products - whisky, food products and textiles - to be removed, but the UK government continues to recklessly pursue a US trade deal without effectively engaging with the Scottish government.
This deal will fail by a large margin to compensate for the loss of full access to the single European market, and prioritising a deal with the US over the EU poses significant risk to Scotland’s economy and jobs.
Global Justice Now, which campaigns for social justice on a global basis, has criticised the government’s plans for a trade deal with the US. This is from its director, Nick Dearden, commenting on the Department for International Trade’s paper about its negotiating objectives published this morning. Dearden said:
These objectives show that the government is living in cloud-cuckoo land. While some of the language on the NHS and food standards sounds very nice, in fact this trade deal will allow US multinationals to challenge and change our regulations, potentially even creating a corporate court to allow US multinationals to sue the British government in a secretive parallel legal process.
What’s more, the objectives aren’t based in reality – it is not at all clear why the US would offer Britain greater access to its food markets without meeting the US’s own core demands around food and medicines. This will not end well, and the fact the government is risking our standards for a mere 0.07%-0.16% of GDP is astonishing.
It could be “months rather than weeks” before the coronavirus outbreak in the UK peaks, government sources indicated. As the Press Association reports, in a suggestion that extra emergency powers would not be required immediately, the source said:
We don’t want to have to take decisions before we have to. As much as possible we want people to carry on with their daily lives.
Legislation allowing the government to use extra powers is expected to go through parliament by the end of the month, with experts indicating that is the earliest that it will be required, PA reports.
Updated
Downing Street lobby briefing - Summary
Here are the main points from the Downing Street lobby briefing.
- Ministers have agreed a UK-wide action plan to tackle coronavirus that will be tackled tomorrow, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said the plan would “set out the steps which we have already taken, things which we could potentially consider in the event that this outbreak were to progress still further in the UK and also to set out the steps which the public could take in order to help contain this virus”. The spokesman also confirmed that the government was considering emergency legislation, although he implied that details of this would not be in the document being published tomorrow. He said:
There is a separate question of what legislative powers we may need to take going forward to make sure we can do everything possible to contain the virus and ensure people get the care and support they need.
- The spokesman suggested that next week’s budget is being revised to make allowance for the coronavirus outbreak. He confirmed that it would go ahead, as scheduled, on Wednesday 11 March. Asked about the possible impact of coronavirus on its contents, he said:
The government stands ready to use all levers at its disposal to ensure that we are as prepared as we can be. The chancellor and the prime minister are fully aware of the evolving situation.
- The spokesman signalled that the government no longer accepted the 2018 Treasury analysis saying that a Canada-style Brexit or a WTO “no deal” Brexit would be very damaging to the economy. Today the government has published an analysis saying a trade deal with the US could boost the economy by 0.16% at best, which would not come close to compensating for the harm caused by leaving the EU single market, according to the 2018 report. Asked about the 2018 figures, the spokesman said that they were published under another government and that they were controversial at the time. (See 1.06pm.) The government was seeking alternative views, he said. He went on:
We set out last week that we want to throw open the question in relation to analysis of the future partnership with the EU to the wider analytical community to help inform the government and the country of the widest possible range of models, data and perspectives.
He also defended the decision to publish an economic assessment of the impact of a trade deal with the US but not one with the EU, saying trade talks with the EU were starting from a different place. (See 1.02pm.)
- The spokesman refused to say whether Sir Philip Rutnam’s claims about Priti Patel, the home secretary, bullying civil servants were true. The spokesman said the the government “treats any such allegation seriously” but that, because Rutnam, the former permanent secretary, was suing the government for constructive dismissal, he could not comment further.
In the clip for broadcasters recorded after this morning’s meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee to discuss coronavirus, Boris Johnson said the spread of the coronavirus was “likely” to become “more significant” for the UK in the coming days. He said:
We have also agreed a plan so that if and when it starts to spread, as I’m afraid it looks likely it will, we are in a position to take the steps necessary to contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and to protect the most vulnerable.
Johnson said closing schools and banning mass gatherings would only be taken upon scientific advice. He went on:
The most important thing for people to understand is that [measures] will be guided by scientific advice.
All four nations of the UK and the chief medical officers are involved in this and they will be helping us to take key decisions on when and how to take protective steps.
We cannot forget that the single most useful thing that we can all do to support the NHS is to wash our hands, two times to Happy Birthday with hot water.
It’s very important that people should continue [doing] that and they should go about business as usual.
This is from Guy Shrubsole, a Friends of the Earth campaigner.
A US-UK free trade deal could "increase the intensive use of chemical inputs and increase threats to biodiversity", says the Govt's own trade objectives document (Annex F): https://t.co/23BJhIyzT6 pic.twitter.com/KQW8IH33mt
— Guy Shrubsole (@guyshrubsole) March 2, 2020
There are three urgent questions in the Commons this afternoon.
3 UQs from 330pm:
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) March 2, 2020
1. @jeremycorbyn to ask @BorisJohnson on apparent breaches of the ministerial code and whether he intends to refer the matter to the Cabinet Office for further investigation
Although Jeremy Corbyn is demanding a response from Boris Johnson himself about Priti Patel (the home secretary, who is accused of bullying civil servants in breach of hte ministerial code), it is very unlikely that he will get one. The government can decide which minister it wants to reply to an urgent question, and in this case it may well put up a junior Cabinet Office minister like Chloe Smith to respond to Corbyn.
Urgent questions come before ministerial statements, and so the statement from Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, about the UK-US trade negotiations is unlikely to start before 5pm.
And that’s it. The briefing is over.
I will post a summary soon.
Q: Will the UK offer to host the Olympics if Japan can’t?
The spokesman says he is not aware of any discussion on that.
Government no longer accepts 2018 Treasury analysis of impact of Brexit, No 10 says
Q: So you accept that the anticipated GDP gain from a trade deal with the US is less than the anticipated loss from leaving the single market?
The spokesman says the government will be consulting later this year on the different views on the potential gains from a trade deal with the EU.
He says the Treasury’s 2018 analysis was “conducted by another government”. It was controversial, he says.
Q: So you no longer accept it?
The spokesman says that was an analysis conducted by a previous government. The government now wants to carry out an alternative analysis, he says.
- No 10 says government no longer accepts 2018 Treasury analysis of impact of Brexit.
Q: Why has the government published an economic assessment of a trade deal with the US, but not one with the EU?
The spokesman says with the US the UK is at a more typical start-point for a free trade agreement.
He says the starting point for talks with the EU is different. And the talks will cover some aspects that go beyond a normal free trade agreement, he says.
Q: Is the government committed to remaining party to the European convention on human rights?
The spokesman says the government is a signatory.
Q: Is it committed to remaining a signatory?
There’s no change in the UK’s position, the spokesman says.
Q: Back to coronavirus, Scotland’s chief medical officer has said up to 4% of the population could require hospital treatment. Was that the sort of figure discussed at the Cobra meeting.
The spokesman says he did not hear that discussed.
Q: Is this part of a wider campaign against some civil servants deemed unhelpful?
The spokesman does not accept that. He says the PM stressed his admiration for the civil service in an interview yesterday.
We are now changing the subject.
Q: Will there be an inquiry into Priti Patel’s behaviour?
The spokesman says the government takes allegations of the kind made by Sir Philip Rutnam seriously. But because Rutnam is taking legal action, the spokesman says he cannot comment further.
Q: Didn’t the PM’s comment about Priti Patel doing an excellent job prejudice any legal case?
The spokesman does not accept that.
Q: What evidence is there to show the government is taking this seriously?
The spokesman says he cannot say any more.
Q: It does not sound as if you are taking this seriously.
The spokesman repeats the point about not being able to comment further.
Q: How many people will be working in the “war room”?
The spokesman does not have those figures.
Q: Will the military need to get involved?
The spokesman says the government will take whatever steps are deemed helpful.
Q: Can you tell us more about the “war room” on coronavirus?
The spokesman says there is a room in the Cabinet Office where health and communication officials from across the UK will be based. It will ensure that “joined-up messages” go out to the public.
The spokesman says we may get a Commons statement from the health secretary on the plan tomorrow.
Regarding the government’s plans for emergency legislation, the spokesman says the government wants to ensure it has the powers it needs when it needs them.
Q: Do you know if Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has contracted coronavirus in prison in Iran?
The spokesman says the government is urgently seeking an update about her condition.
Q: Will the plan explain how emergency services will be sustained?
The spokesman says it will be published tomorrow.
Q: What worst case scenarios were discussed?
The spokesman says he does not want to do that before the report is published.
He says the public will need access to the best and clearest information.
The spokesman says the chief medical officer is issuing updates whenever a new case is discovered.
Q: Is emergency legislation necessary for the delay phase, or for the mitigation phase?
The spokesman says it will cover all eventualities.
Q: Should the public be prepared to accept a notable change in their daily lives?
The spokesman says the government will take all reasonable steps. The plan will set out some changes that might need to happen.
Q: What was the mood like at the Cobra meeting?
The spokesman says he wants to emphasise that all parts of the UK are working together. The process of agreeing a plan was a smooth one, he says.
Q: What will the government do to help low-income people who might have to give up work?
The spokesman says the government is aware of the problems, and is willing to take “further action if needed”.
Q: Currently people need a sick note from a GP to take sick leave. Would you encourage employers to waive those requirements?
The spokesman says these issues are being considered. The government would back all “reasonable” steps being taken.
Q: Will this impact on the budget?
The spokesman says the budget will go ahead as planned next week.
But he suggests that allowance will be taken for the coronavirus outbreak.
The spokesman says the chancellor and the Treasury have held discussions with the Bank of England about coronavirus. The bank put out a statement this morning, he says.
The spokesman says the action plan will set out steps already taken, and steps that might be considered if the outbreak gets worse. It will also set out steps that members of the public might take.
He says there is a separate issue as to what emergency legislation might be needed.
The spokesman says the government wants to work with EU partners to address coronavirus. It is working closely with EU allies, for example on repatriation flights, the spokesman says.
Q: Can you give us a feel of what the plan will say? There is a feeling it has been behind the curve.
The spokesman says he does not accept that the government has been behind the curve.
Q: Yesterday Matt Hancock talked about the possible need for cities to be put on lock-down. Were those plans discussed?
The spokesman says the government will be guided by advice. The top priority is to keep the public safe, while minimising the economic consequences.
Q: What is the PM doing to reduce the spread?
The PM is washing his hands regularly.
Q: Has he cut down on shaking hands?
The PM is following medical advice, and that is to wash hands regularly, for 20 seconds.
Q: Where the devolved leaders dialled in or screened in?
The spokesman says he was not in the room, so he cannot be sure.
UK-wide action plan for coronavirus to be published tomorrow, No 10 says
The prime minister’s spokesman is here.
He starts by setting out the PM’s day. He has just chaired a Cobra meeting on coronavirus, and done a clip for broadcasters. Later he will be hosting a World Cup day reception in No 10.
Liz Truss has published negotiating objectives for the UK-US trade talks, he says. There will be a statement in the Commons this afternoon.
In Brussels the first round of negotiations with the EU starts at 1pm UK time. It will start with a meeting between David Frost, the PM’s Europe adviser, and Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, which is due to last an hour.
Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, is holding talks in Oman.
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has confirmed that the government has taken over rail services on the Northern network.
The spokesman is now taking questions.
Q: What happened at the Cobra meeting?
The spokesman says the PM has set that out in his clip for broadcasters. A UK-wide action plan for coronavirus was agreed. It will be published tomorrow, the spokesman says.
He says the devolved administrations were represented via conference call.
Q: Why was Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, not there.
Today was about setting out a national response, the spokesman says.
The spokesman says the plan will be published. Reporters will be properly briefed on it, he says.
Q: What sort of imput did the devolved administrations have? Are there differences in the different parts of the UK?
It is as single plan for the UK, the spokesman says.
Downing Street lobby briefing
I’m at Downing Street for the regular morning lobby briefing.
It is due to start at 12.15pm. Under the current system the embargo on the meeting tends to be lifted soon after it has started, so I hope to start posting soon afterwards.
David Henig, the trade expert and former civil servant who now runs the UK Trade Policy Project, thinks the government’s document on a UK-US trade deal will make it harder for the UK to resist the EU’s level playing field demands in the UK-EU talks.
The page of UK-US negotiating objectives that the EU will particularly enjoy reading and using against the UK, where we ask for level playing field conditions which are enforceable... pic.twitter.com/daxC2rH32A
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) March 2, 2020
He is referring in particular to this passage in the UK document. It says the deal should:
Ensure parties reaffirm their commitment to international standards on the environment and labour.
Ensure parties do not waive or fail to enforce their domestic environmental or labour protections in ways that create an artificial competitive advantage.
Include measures which allow the UK to maintain the integrity, and provide meaningful protection, of the UK’s world-leading environmental and labour standards.
Secure provisions that support and help further the government’s ambition on climate change and achieving Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050, including promoting trade in low carbon goods and services, supporting research and development collaboration and maintaining both parties’ right to regulate in pursuit of decarbonisation.
Apply appropriate mechanisms for the implementation, monitoring and dispute resolution of environmental and labour provisions.
And this is from the FT’s George Parker.
This is the best case scenario for a US/UK trade deal - a rise in GDP of 0.16 per cent. Compared with govt estimates that 5 per cent will be knocked off GDP growth over the next 15 years under @BorisJohnson "Canada-style" trade deal with the EU. 8 per cent off under WTO model https://t.co/Yd1ZPUEaVL
— George Parker (@GeorgeWParker) March 2, 2020
Parker is referring the Treasury analysis (pdf) published at the end of 2018 saying that over the long term a no-deal Brexit, or WTO Brexit, could reduce GDP by 7.6%, and that a Canada-style deal could reduce GDP by 4.9%.
Updated
These are from the Telegraph’s James Crisp.
EU types scrutinising the UK mandate for trade talks with the US will not find evidence that Britain is ready to break loose of EU rules and go full “Singapore on Thames”.
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) March 2, 2020
1/https://t.co/gRM015Qbf9
This is relevant given the ongoing divides over EU demands for level playing field guarantees in tax, state aid, labour and environment in the UK-EU post Brexit trade deal.
— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) March 2, 2020
UK-EU trade negotiations start today in Brussels.
2
Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, is making a Commons statement later on the UK-US trade talks. The Labour whips think there is still a chance of getting a statement on coronavirus too.
One oral ministerial statement:
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) March 2, 2020
UK/US Trade Dral Negotiating Objectives - @trussliz / @Bill_Esterson
Still time for Govt to confirm Coronavirus statement, surely they will come and update the House and the public of the steps they are taking on this important issue.
Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the international development secretary and Brexiter, has a more positive take on the potential gains from a UK-US trade deal.
This is a huge opportunity for both Britain and our single biggest trading partner, the United States 🇬🇧🇺🇸
— Anne-Marie Trevelyan (@annietrev) March 2, 2020
As a free, independent country once more, the UK will be able to reconnect with old friends and new allies around the world through free trade 👇 https://t.co/oN19Lfj2gR
Here is the Labour MP David Lammy on the government’s assessment of the economic benefits of a UK-US trade deal.
So now you admit the potential economic benefits of a UK-US trade deal are just +0.2% of GDP.
— David Lammy (@DavidLammy) March 2, 2020
And the cost of Brexit is somewhere between -7.6% and -4.9% of GDP.
In what planet does this boost wages or create jobs for anyone except the Tory Cabinet? https://t.co/73jvaCT0t8
And here is the chart from the document summarising the potential economic benefits from a trade deal.
Even under the best trade deal (scenario 2 - see 11.12am), workers would only see pay go up by 0.2%.
Here is a chart from the DIT report showing the regional impact of a UK-US trade deal, under two possible scenarios. Scenario 1 would involve a substantial tariff liberalisation, while scenario 2 would involve a more extensive trade deal, with full tariff liberalisation.
This is from Dmitry Grozoubinski, a former trade negotiator who runs the ExplainTrade consultancy, on a UK-US trade deal.
Three things can be simultaneously true:
— Dmitry Grozoubinski (@DmitryOpines) March 2, 2020
1) An FTA with the US was a silly argument for Brexit generally, and hard Brexit specifically.
2) With the UK out of the EU, it's reasonable to dispassionately explore an FTA with the US.
3) The EU FTA talks are vastly more important.
The Department for International Trade paper on negotiating objectives for a UK-US trade deal is here (pdf), on the DIT’s website. It runs to 184 pages, and includes the results of the government’s consultation on this topic.
UK says it 'will not compromise on high standards of food safety and animal welfare' in US trade deal
This is what the DIT document says about food standards.
Now we have left the EU, the UK will decide how we set and maintain our own standards and regulations and we have been clear that we will not compromise on our high standards of food safety and animal welfare. The UK’s reputation for high quality food and agricultural products is recognised internationally and underpins our exports of these products. Any trade agreement with the US must work for UK consumers, farmers and companies and the government will strongly defend our right to regulate in these areas in the public interest.
The government’s manifesto has made it clear that ‘in all of our trade negotiations, we will not compromise on our high environmental protection, animal welfare and food standards’.
The UK’s independent food regulators will continue to ensure that all food imports into the UK comply with those high standards. Without exception, imports into the UK will meet our stringent food safety standards - all food imports into the UK must be safe and this will not change in any future agreement. In line with responses from business, we recognise the opportunities through a trade agreement to streamline procedures for UK food exports into the US.
And this is what the US said about its goals relating to food standards in its own document (pdf) about its negotiating objectives for a trade deal published last year. It said a deal should:
Provide for enforceable and robust SPS obligations that build upon World Trade Organization (WTO) rights and obligations, including with respect to science-based measures, good regulatory practice, import checks, equivalence, regionalization, certification, and risk analysis, making clear that each Party can set for itself the level of protection it believes to be appropriate to protect food safety and plant and animal health in a manner consistent with its international obligations.
Establish a mechanism to remove expeditiously unwarranted barriers that block the export of U.S. food and agricultural products in order to obtain more open, equitable, and reciprocal market access.
The Department for International Trade still has not published its paper on the negotiating position for the UK-US trade talks. But the document has been published here, on the Guido Fawkes website.
The EU is urging Britain to drop the “political rhetoric” around Brexit as historic talks on the future trading relationship open in Brussels, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll reports.
Here is Jonathan Portes, a former government economist and professor of economics at Kings College London, on the Department for International Trade’s estimate of the benefits of a UK-US trade deal.
Government confirms that its modelling estimates that the potential economic benefits of a UK-US trade deal (+0.2% of GDP) are de minimis compared to the economic costs of its Brexit proposals (-7.6% to -4.9% of GDP).https://t.co/EVSKxBnXtI
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) March 1, 2020
This is from Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform. He has seen the Department for International Trade’s report on its negotiating objectives for a trade deal with the US, which is not on the DIT website yet but which is due out imminently.
The estimated economic impact of a free trade agreement between the US and UK: pic.twitter.com/vVGbM2tH5l
— Sam Lowe (@SamuelMarcLowe) March 2, 2020
Two Scottish National party veterans closely associated with Alex Salmond’s leadership, Mike Russell and Stewart Stevenson, have announced they will retire before next year Holyrood elections.
In the latest of a series of retirement announcements by MSPS, Russell, currently Brexit secretary in Nicola Sturgeon’s government, and Stevenson said on Sunday they were stepping down as MSPs on age grounds, and to make way for younger candidates.
Their announcements signal a generational shift within the SNP. Russell’s first senior post within the party was to serve as chief executive under Salmond from 1994, where he helped shape the SNP’s 1999 Scottish parliament election campaign. He had served as Salmond’s campaign manager in his first leadership bid in 1990.
Russell, 66, competed against Salmond for the leadership in 2004, but after Salmond became first minister in the 2007 Holyrood election by a wafer-thin one seat margin was given the first in a series of ministerial positions, at environment.
After losing his post as education secretary in Sturgeon’s first reshuffle as leader after she replaced Salmond as first minister in November 2014, she brought him back in as her blunt and combative Brexit secretary in August 2016.
Stevenson, 74, is regarded as one of Salmond’s few close friends within the party. He first entered the Scottish parliament in 2001 after Salmond quit as an MSP following his resignation as leader in 2000, taking over Salmond’s seat in Banff and Buchan in the ensuing byelection. (Salmond remained at Westminster, as MP for Banff and Buchan.)
Regularly cited as the parliament’s most prolific speaker as a backbencher, Stevenson remains the only SNP minister to have resigned voluntarily on principle since the party first won power at Holyrood in 2007.
He quit as transport minister in December 2010 after he described the authorities’ response to blizzards and deep snow, which left thousands of motorists stranded overnight, as “first class” and initially refused to apologise.
Four other SNP MSPs - James Dornan, Gail Ross, Bruce Crawford and Richard Lyall - have also said they will stand down next year.
Updated
Boris Johnson will be chairing a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee later to consider the next steps needed to tackle the coronavirus crisis. According to the government’s press release, the committee will “discuss, finalise and sign off a battle plan containing a detailed set of countermeasures”.
In a statement ahead of the meeting Johnson said:
The number of coronavirus cases around the world is rising every day - and the UK is no exception.
There now seems little doubt that it will present a significant challenge for our country.
But we are well prepared, and the government and the NHS will stop at nothing to fight this virus.
This battle plan lays out in detail the measures we could use - if and when they are needed.
There is full coverage of the coronavirus crisis on our separate live blog. You can read it here.
Trade deal with US likely to be worth far less than Trump claimed, Truss reveals
Good morning. Today the UK starts trade talks with the EU, and the negotiations will take place with Boris Johnson’s government saying it is willing to abandon the process, and revert to planning for a WTO “no deal” Brexit, if it is not making enough progress by June. The government will be negotiating a trade deal with the US at the same time, and this morning, ahead of the publication of its negotiating objectives, Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, said the UK would be willing to walk away from these talks too if Washington is not prepared to accept UK red lines on food safety standards. In an interview with the BBC she said:
I can absolutely guarantee that in a trade deal with the US we will not diminish our food safety standards, and we will also not put the NHS on the table, or the price the NHS pays for drugs on the table. Those are two very clear red lines in our trade deal.
But I would also point out that there are huge potential benefits for all parts of Britain from a trade deal with the US. Our economic study shows a potential £15bn benefit for trade ... and every single part of the country stands to benefit, with particularly the Midlands, the north east and Scotland likely to benefit the most.
So there are big opportunities there.
But if we don’t get the deal we want, we will be prepared to walk away, and that includes the red lines of food standards and the national health service.
"If we don't get the deal we want we will be prepared to walk away"
— BBC Breakfast (@BBCBreakfast) March 2, 2020
International Trade Secretary, Liz Truss MP, tells #BBCBreakfast there are "red lines" over the #NHS and #foodstandards when it comes to the UK/US trade deal.
More here: https://t.co/HfF8dis0t8 pic.twitter.com/4di8nQuqiD
Truss’s stance is not particularly surprising. The red lines that she set out are ones that the government has maintained for some time (and quite what ‘maintaining food safety standards’ means remains, of course, to be seen).
What is perhaps more significant is how the UK’s assessment of how much might be gained from a trade deal is at odds with President Trump’s. In September last year, at a meeting with Johnson in New York, Trump said: “We can quadruple out trade with the UK [by negotiating a trade deal].” And a month later he told LBC, in his interview with Nigel Farage, that with a trade deal “we can do many times of numbers that we’re doing right now”.
But the Department for International Trade is now saying that it estimates that a trade deal will “increase transatlantic trade flows by £15.3bn”. That is not insignificant, but the department’s own figures (pdf) put the value of total trade with the US at £200bn. That means a trade deal would increase the value of UK-US trade not by 400%, as Trump claimed, but by 7.5%.
And, as the BBC’s Faisal Islam points out, the impact on UK GDP would be worth about 0.2%.
Government publishes top line negotiating objectives for UK-US trade deal, and has done economic analysis concluding that Scotland and NE will benefit the most from tariff free access to US.
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 1, 2020
- overall economic boost calculated at £3.4bn, or 0.2% of UK GDPhttps://t.co/MdIENhlDr8
Here is the agenda for the day.
10am: Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, publishes the government’s negotiating mandate for trade talks with the US.
10.30am: Boris Johnson chairs a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee to consider the next steps needed to tackle the coronavirus crisis.
12.15pm: Downing Street lobby briefing.
Afternoon: British officials start trade talks with their EU counterparts in Brussels.
3.30pm: Urgent questions and ministerial statements in the Commons. We will find out later if any have been scheduled, but it is possible that coronavirus or the departure of the Home Office permanent secretary Sir Philip Rutnam could come up.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.
Updated
