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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

Juncker: There will be no third chance to pass Brexit deal – as it happened

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission welcomes British Prime Minister Theresa May at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission welcomes British Prime Minister Theresa May at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Photograph: Patrick Seeger/EPA

Overnight summary

We’re going to put this blog on hold for now. But, if there are any further developments tonight, you’ll hear about them here first. In any case, thanks for reading and for all the comments.

  • The British prime minister, Theresa May, and the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said they had agreed a series of changes to the Brexit deal. The news came after May’s last-minute dash to Strasbourg for talks with EU leaders. MPs will be asked to vote on the amended deal on Tuesday after the government tabled a motion late on Monday evening.
  • May claimed the new deal satisfied Parliament’s concerns because it provided “legally binding” changes. Crucially, she said it would allow the UK to complain to an independent arbitrator and exit the backstop if the EU sought to “trap” it. And she claimed the UK could unilaterally leave the backstop if talks on a future relationship broke down.
  • But senior Labour figures said nothing of substance had changed. The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, attacked the deal in the Commons on Monday and the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, indicated the party would not back it there on Tuesday. Many commentators noted that the key to its success would be whether or not the changes would lead the attorney general to change his legal advice that the backstop could leave the UK trapped indefinitely in the backstop.
  • Juncker warned there would be no further chance to pass a withdrawal deal. He said: “In politics, sometimes you get a second chance ... There will be no third chance.” And he added a warning that “it is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all”. Moreover, he said, the UK would be legally obliged to hold European Parliament elections in May, should Brexit not be sorted by then.
  • The hard Brexit-supporting factions within Parliament appeared split on whether or not the new deal could satisfy them. The DUP said it would reserve judgment. Some figures in the Tory backbench ERG dismissed it as “gloss”, while others were more willing to consider it. They may be key to passing or rejecting the – as well as to May’s political career.
  • For a comprehensive summary of the day’s earlier events, see here.

If you’re looking to read more, my colleague Rowena Mason has the full story:

Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier briefed the European Parliament’s Brexit steering group after the EU Commission president’s press conference with May.

After the emergency meeting of Ireland’s cabinet concluded in Dublin late on Monday night, the country’s transport minister, Shane Ross, said the Taoiseach would make a statement on Tuesday morning.

I think everybody here is hoping that it goes through the House of Commons tomorrow. I think that’s what we’re hoping for. We’re very hopeful that it will go through.

The President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, is following the same line as Juncker:

The prominent Tory backbencher, Damian Collins, who backed remain, says he’ll vote against the government’s motion tomorrow.

Collins is the chairman of the Commons Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee.

The DUP MP, Jim Shannon, warned that improvements to the deal could be the “Emperor’s new clothes”. He said:

He will know the story of the Emperor’s clothes and we just hope tomorrow morning the Emperor’s clothes won’t reveal something very embarrassing for the prime minister.

Several Tory MPs suggested the prime minister postpone tomorrow’s vote by 24 hours to give the Commons more time to examine the changes to the withdrawal agreement. Charlie Elphicke said:

If it’s such a great deal, why the rush? Why bounce the House into a vote tomorrow? If it’s such a good deal why do we not take a few days to cogitate, reflect, look at the deal then come to the House and have the vote when we’ve gone across the detail and we have had that chance for full and frank consideration?

Lidington said the House has “considered these issues on a number of occasions”, saying that the public “want decisions taken” and to see politicians “get on with delivering the referendum result”.

Peter Bone said there would “not be enough time to debate the motion” ahead of the vote at 7pm tomorrow, adding: “Can I suggest to the deputy PM... would it not be better to have a statement from the attorney general tomorrow, a statement from the prime minister tomorrow and a debate the following day?”

He added it was “ridiculous that Parliament should be bounced into it”, but Lidington said we “cannot have further delay”.

Back in Westminster, Lidington is still batting for the government. MPs have repeatedly pressed him to reveal when key documents will be available and have bemoaned the fact that details of the government motion first emerged on Twitter – an approach Labour’s Stephen Doughty described as “contemptuous”.

The Brexiter and Conservative former minister, Mark Francois, said:

If the government’s motion is on Twitter, couldn’t the minister just read it out?

On the legal advice, Francois warned that the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, has been involved in negotiating the deal, and will be “to some extent marking his own homework when he advises the House”.

The Labour MP, Stella Creasy, added:

It’s clearer that we should be looking at Twitter rather than listening to the minister on this.

And the former government minister, Labour’s Pat McFadden said of Lidington’s announcements in his initial statement:

Well, if this is a fig leaf it doesn’t cover very much and it certainly doesn’t cover the government’s desperation to give the ERG and the DUP an excuse to come in off the ledge.

Here’s a fuller explanation of the DUP’s position, from a party spokesman:

We note the prime minister’s latest statement and update on our EU exit negotiations. These publications need careful analysis. We will be taking appropriate advice, scrutinising the text line by line and forming our own judgment.

We will measure this latest text against the Brady amendment, and the commitments made by the prime minister of 29 January.

For his part, the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, believes May’s latest attempt satisfies that amendment.

Updated

The Lib Dem leader, Vince Cable, has said May’s meeting with Juncker showed the Brexit negotiations were in disarray.

Midnight flits to Strasbourg and desperate late night Commons statements underline the chaos into which Project Brexit has descended.

It is time for ministers to admit that this brinkmanship is fruitless. They cannot negotiate a better deal than being in the EU, because the UK is stronger inside as a full member.

The only way out of this crisis is to extend Article 50, and let the people choose between the withdrawal agreement and staying in the EU.

The UK government has released the text of the motion for Tuesday’s Commons vote, which asks MPs to approve five documents – the withdrawal agreement (WA) and political declaration agreed in November along with the three others finalised in Strasbourg today.

The motion defines the first new document as “the legally binding joint instrument” relating to the WA that “reduces the risk that the UK could be deliberately held in the Northern Ireland backstop indefinitely and commits the UK and EU to work to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020”.

The second new document is described as a “unilateral declaration by the UK” that sets out “the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily”.

The final document is a supplement to the political declaration “setting out commitments by the UK and the EU to expedite the negotiation and bringing into force of their future relationship”.

Here’s a full transcript of the prime minister’s speech in Strasbourg this evening:

Last November, after two years of hard-fought negotiations, I agreed a Brexit deal with the EU that I passionately believe delivers on the decision taken by the British people to leave the European Union.

Over the last four months, I have made the case for that deal in Westminster and across the UK. I stand by what that deal achieves for my country.

It means we regain control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK. Regain control of our borders, by ending free movement. Regain control of our money, by ending vast annual payments to the EU.

The end of the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy for British farmers and fishermen. An independent trade policy.

And the deal sets us on course for a good future relationship with our friends and allies in the EU. A close economic partnership that is good for business. Ongoing security co-operation to keep our peoples safe.

The deal honours the referendum result and is good for both the UK and the EU.

But there was a clear concern in Parliament over one issue in particular: the Northern Ireland backstop.

Having an insurance policy to guarantee that there will never be a hard border in Northern Ireland is absolutely right – it honours the UK’s solemn commitments in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement.

But if we ever have to use that insurance policy, it cannot become a permanent arrangement and it is not the template for our future relationship.

The deal that MPs voted on in January was not strong enough in making that clear and legally binding changes were needed to set that right. Today we have agreed them.

First, a joint instrument with comparable legal weight to the withdrawal agreement will guarantee that the EU cannot act with the intent of applying the backstop indefinitely. If they do, it can be challenged through arbitration and if they are found to be in breach the UK can suspend the backstop.

The joint instrument also gives a legal commitment that whatever replaces the backstop does not need to replicate it. And it entrenches in legally binding form the commitments made in the exchange of letters with Presidents Tusk and Juncker in January.

Second, the UK and the EU have made a joint statement in relation to the political declaration. It sets out a number of commitments to enhance and expedite the process of negotiating and bringing into force the future relationship. And it makes a legal commitment that the UK and the EU will begin work immediately to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by the end of December 2020.

There will be a specific negotiating track on alternative arrangements from the very start of the next phase of negotiations. It will consider facilitations and technologies - both those currently ready and emerging.

The UK’s position will be informed by the three domestic groups announced last week - for technical experts, MPs, and business and trade unions.

Third, alongside the joint instrument on the withdrawal agreement, the United Kingdom government will make a unilateral declaration that, if the backstop comes into use and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately disapply the backstop.

Unilateral declarations are commonly used by states alongside the ratification of treaties.

The attorney general will set out in legal analysis the meaning of the joint instrument and unilateral declaration to Parliament.

Tomorrow, the House of Commons will debate the improved deal that these legal changes have created. I will speak in more detail about them when I open that debate. MPs were clear that legal changes were needed to the backstop. Today we have secured legal changes. Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal, and to deliver on the instruction of the British people.

Jean-Claude Juncker, in a letter addressed to the European Council president Donald Tusk, has said the EU’s “hand must remain outstretched” to the UK and that the bloc should “continue to support the efforts of Prime Minister May to ensure an orderly withdrawal”.

While fully respecting the principles defined unanimously by the European Council we should – following the request of Prime Minister May – now give one last push to get the withdrawal agreement over the finishing line.

He sent Tusk the text of the instrument relating to the withdrawal agreement and the joint statement supplementing the political declaration, agreed between him and May and endorsed by the European Commission.

Juncker recommended that the leaders of the 27 remaining EU states give their endorsement to the documents at the European Council summit of 21-22 March in Brussels, subject to them having been approved by that time by the House of Commons.

I believe it is high time to complete the withdrawal process in line with the wishes expressed by the government of the UK and to move on as swiftly as possible to the negotiation of our future partnership.

The Commission is ready to start talks on the future partnership “immediately after the withdrawal agreement is signed”, he said.

Juncker added that the UK’s withdrawal should be complete by the time of the European Parliament elections of 23-26 May. If it was not complete, the UK would be legally required to take part in the elections, he said.

Here’s the full text of Juncker’s letter:

Updated

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has responded to May’s statement, saying her “negotiations have failed”.

This evening’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament, and whipped her MPs to vote for.

Since her Brexit deal was so overwhelmingly rejected, the prime minister has recklessly run down the clock, failed to effectively negotiate with the EU and refused to find common ground for a deal Parliament could support.

That’s why MPs must reject this deal tomorrow.

Here’s a little more from Juncker’s statement just now. He told reporters:

We left no stone unturned, our mind has always been open, our work always creative and our hand has always been outstretched.

It is in this spirit that today the prime minister and I have agreed on a joint legally binding instrument relating to the withdrawal agreement. This instrument provides meaningful clarifications and legal guarantees on the nature of the backstop.

The backstop is an insurance policy, nothing more, nothing less. The intention is for it not to be used, like in every insurance policy.

Juncker said he had spoken to Irish Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who he said had indicated he was “prepared to back this approach in the interests of an overall deal”.

Referring to the backstop Juncker also said:

If either side were to act in bad faith, there is a legal way for the other party to exit. The instrument which sets out these details has legal force while fully respecting the guidelines of the European Council.

He added: “It compliments the withdrawal agreement without reopening it.”

May and Juncker are taking questions from journalists. Juncker reiterates that he believes there will be no new deal: This is it.

That concludes the press conference.

Updated

Theresa May: 'UK could unilaterally withdraw from backstop'

Theresa May says it is the UK’s position that it believes it could unilaterally withdraw from the backstop if negotiations with the EU on the future relationship were to break down.

May is now confirming what Lidington told MPs about what changes she says she has secured.

Just as they were taking the stage, Jean-Claude Juncker tweeted this:

Theresa May is speaking now.

She says she has delivered a deal, made the case for it, and stands by what it achieves for the UK.

Juncker: 'There will be no third chance'

Sitting next to Theresa May, Jean-Claude Juncker notes that this is a “second chance” and says, perhaps rather pointedly, that there will be no third chance.

Juncker says the day of the referendum was a “sad day” but says “we must respect the decision of the British people”.

He says there have been difficulties with ratification on the UK’s side and claims to have worked hard to help May get the deal past Parliament.

Here’s a live stream of the presser:

Here come Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker for their joint press conference. Juncker opens...

It seems the DUP and the ERG responses are still crystallising.

While Steve Baker was dismissive, Jacob Rees-Mogg seemed more willing to keep an open mind:

Here’s a decent summary of what we’ve had so far:

Updated

Delivering his statement just now, Lidington further told MPs:

The second document is a joint statement supplementing the political declaration, which outlines a number of commitments by the United Kingdom and the European Union to enhance and expedite the process of negotiating and bringing into force the future relationship – for example, it makes reference to the possibility of provisional application of such future agreement – and it sets out in detail how the specific negotiating track on alternative arrangements will operate.

Negotiations are continuing and the government will provide an update to the House at the earliest opportunity should there be further changes.

He concluded by saying:

The House was clear on the need for legally-binding changes to the backstop. Today we have secured these changes. Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal and deliver on the instruction of the British people.

Earlier in the evening, there were reports of optimism within Number 10 about tonight’s developments. Within minutes of Lidington’s statement to the Commons, they may be losing their gloss, somewhat:

The DUP appears slightly less dismissive:

Updated

Here’s a little more detail on what the cabinet secretary, David Lidington, has told MPs about the negotiations in Strasbourg:

We will be laying two new documents in the House: A joint, legally binding instrument on the withdrawal agreement and protocol on Northern Ireland; and a joint statement to supplement the political declaration.

The first provides confirmation that the EU cannot try to trap the UK in the backstop indefinitely and that doing so would be an explicit breach of the legally-binding commitments that both sides have agreed.

If – contrary to all expectations – the EU were to act with that intention, the UK could use this acceptance of what could constitute an explicit breach as the basis for a formal dispute, through independent arbitration, that such a breach had occurred – ultimately suspending the protocol if thew EU continued to breach its obligations.

On top of this, the joint instrument also reflect the United Kingdom’s and European Union’s commitment to work to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020, setting out explicitly that these arrangements do not need to replicate the provisions of the backstop in any respect.

Updated

Starmer is saying he does not believe the evening’s developments would allow the attorney general to change his legal advice.

Lidington had said the Cox would be publishing advice ahead of Tuesday’s debate, but needed time to consider the new changes.

The attorney general will publish his legal opinion. That will be available in good time before the debate. I think the house would expect the Attorney General to consider very carefully rather than rush an opinion out to meet the deadline for this statement this evening.

Starmer closes by saying the Labour party will reject the deal and he believes the House of Commons will do the same.

Starmer is saying nothing has changed as a result of this evening’s negotiations, claiming that it simply restates the joint letter from Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker to Theresa May, which was sent in January.

The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, is now responding. He opens with a joke – saying he isn’t complaining about not have advance notice of the deal, since Lidington appears not to have had such.

Lidington tells MPs the “improved deal” will be put before them at the meaningful vote tomorrow – and will be the “only deal” on offer.

Government secures 'legally binding backstop changes' – Lidington

Lidington says the government has “secured legally binding changes that strengthen and improve the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration”.

He says the joint instrument prevents the EU from trapping the UK in the backstop indefinitely and will allow the UK to raise a grievance if it feels it is.

Lidington opens by apologising for not giving opposition MPs an advance copy of the statement, saying that is because the talks are still going on.

David Lidington is on his feet in the Commons.

Ministers on Whitehall are tight-lipped this evening.

We may, however, be about to get the news:

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has an interesting update from this evening’s cabinet discussions:

But, as the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar points out, it’s not solely about the reactions of the ERG and the DUP:

As we’ve noted, May is expected to give her statement in Strasbourg soon. Back in Westminster, David Lidington – who briefed the cabinet earlier this evening – will address the Commons. This from the Conservative MP, Vicky Ford:

We’ll bring you all the details from that statement as it’s delivered.

The package negotiated by Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker is expected to be in three parts:

  1. A joint interpretative instrument – a legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement. It will give legal force to a letter from Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council, given to May in January which stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered or get out of it as swiftly as possible, if it was.
  2. A unilateral statement from the UK. That is likely to seek to explain the British position that, if the backstop was to become permanent and talks were going nowhere on an alternative, the UK would seek to exit the arrangement.
  3. Additional language in the political declaration to emphasise the urgency on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. It is hoped this will be enough to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, to change his initial legal advice that the backstop could be in place indefinitely.

The problem: Very, very little of this is significantly new. The most substantive element is the joint interpretative instrument. But it falls well short of Cox’s demands over the last week for what amounted to a unilateral exit mechanism from the backstop.

Updated

While we wait for Theresa May’s statement in Strasbourg, here’s a take on Brexit from the former Australian prime minister, Kevin Rudd:

I’m struck, as the British parliament moves towards the endgame on Brexit, with the number of times Australia, Canada, New Zealand and India have been advanced by the Brexiteers in the public debate as magical alternatives to Britain’s current trade and investment relationship with the European Union. This is the nuttiest of the many nutty arguments that have emerged from the Land of Hope and Glory set now masquerading as the authentic standard-bearers of British patriotism. It’s utter bollocks.

While nothing is being confirmed, there are whispers that some progress has been made in the talks – and the signs of movement in both Dublin and London would tend to support those rumours.

And there are reports that some progress has been made:

Journalists are now assembling in the European Parliament’s press conference room. Across the other side of this vast building in Strasbourg, in the Winston Churchill building, Jean-Claude Juncker and Theresa May are discussing the latest on the Brexit talks.

UK officials are milling around in the press conference room but nothing is being confirmed – presumably to avoid reports that a press conference was cancelled in the event that things do not go well with the commission president.

Just before May arrived at the parliament, Juncker was seen swaying his hips from side to side. He has form for teasing the PM over her dance routine at the Tory party conference – but let’s be generous and say he was keeping his back loose. Juncker suffers from sciatica.

There were smiles in Strasbourg as Theresa May arrived, to be met by Jean-Claude Juncker, earlier this evening.

Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of European Commission, at the institution’s headquarters in Strasbourg, in France, on 11 March 2019
Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of European Commission, at the institution’s headquarters in Strasbourg, in France, on 11 March 2019 Photograph: Thomas Niedermueller/Getty Images

Meanwhile, in Westminster:

As May holds talks in Strasbourg, it seems things are moving in both Westminster and Dublin:

Press Association reports that several cabinet ministers left Government Buildings in Dublin about 20 minutes ago, though none commented as they left.

A spokeswoman for the Irish government said the meeting had been adjourned and would reconvene later tonight.

The Taoiseach spoke to President Juncker this evening. The cabinet met to discuss developments across the day. Cabinet meeting adjourned just after 8.30pm and will resume again later this evening. Discussions are continuing.

Updated

May was greeted in Strasbourg by Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, captured on camera here by RTÉ News’ Paul Cunningham:

The prime minister has arrived in Strasbourg, where she is expected to make a unilateral statement on the backstop, according to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg and Sky News’ Faisal Islam:

Here’s a little more detail on tonight’s meeting convened by the Labour deputy leader, Tom Watson:

Those details from Dan Sabbagh, as well as journalists from the Times, the BBC, Politics Home and ITV News.

In Westminster, the Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley has issued a fresh apology for her “deeply insensitive” comments on state killings during the Troubles. Raising a point of order, she said:

In response to an oral question on 6 March, I made inaccurate comments regarding the actions of soldiers during the Troubles. It is right that I address these remarks to the House today and correct the record.

What I said was wrong, it was deeply insensitive to the families who lost loved ones in incidents involving the security forces.

I have apologised unreservedly for the offence and hurt that my words caused.

Today, I repeat that apology; both to the families and to members of this House. The language that I used was wrong.

Bradley said she was “grateful” to affected families for giving her the opportunity to apologise in person last week and added that any evidence of wrongdoing should be pursued “without fear or favour, whoever the perpetrators might be”.

My position and the position of this government is clear, we believe fundamentally in the rule of law. That is a principle that underpins our approach to dealing with legacy issues and it’s one from which I will not depart. That is why I launched the public consultation on addressing the legacy of the Troubles.

The shadow Northern Ireland secretary, Tony Lloyd, suggested Bradley should make a fuller statement to the House, adding:

One of the prime necessities for anybody in the role she has is that they have the confidence not simply of the political parties but of the broader civil society in Northern Ireland, in particular, the victims’ families because of the pain that they’ve gone through for so many years.

He said a justice process for these families has yet to be delivered, before saying Bradley had “lost the confidence” of some political parties and the families. Lloyd added:

That makes her own position a very difficult one. I think she does have to think about what that means in terms of not simply her credibility but her capacity to do the job.

An emergency meeting of Irish cabinet ministers has been called for 7pm, a government source has confirmed to the Press Association.

The Irish premier Leo Varadkar, who was due to begin his journey to America for St Patrick’s Day, returned from Dublin airport and is currently in government buildings for the cabinet briefing.

And Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator, has confirmed he will meet with Theresa May this evening:

Updated

Afternoon summary

  • Harrogate is to pilot a new phase of the government’s controversial universal credit (UC) welfare shake-up, the work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd has said. As the Press Association reports, Rudd told MPs Harrogate was chosen for the major trial of “managed migration” as it has a diverse spread of claimants. Managed migration sees a wider range of claimants moved over to the UC system, not just people with changes to their circumstances, or those making new claims.
    Giving evidence to the work and pensions committee, Rudd said that revised regulations concerning the pilot initiative would be brought before parliament by July.
  • About 70 Labour MPs and peers have attended a meeting convened by Tom Watson, the deputy leader, for parliamentarians from Labour’s social democratic wing. My colleague Dan Sabbagh has more details.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is now taking over.

Updated

This is from my colleague Daniel Boffey.

A remain supporter sports European flag socks while standing across the street from the Palace of Westminster.
A remain supporter sports European flag socks while standing across the street from the Palace of Westminster. Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

From Sky’s Faisal Islam

This is from Margaritis Schinas, the European commission’s spokesman.

And this is what Iain Duncan Smith said on BBC News when asked if thought the deal being agreed would persuade him to vote for the withdrawal agreement. He replied:

Well, I’m certainly going to keep a completely open mind, as all my colleagues are. We want to say a) what it is and then b) the legalities of that. Is it, by any means, good enough for [Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general] to change his advice, which was quite tough last time. He said basically the agreement would leave us trapped in a backstop, which would mean they would have complete negotiating power over us, which is not good.

So if that changes, and he’s able to say that’s differently, and the Malthouse arrangements are part of a package signed up to by the EU - not just discussed - and with an end date, then that process is moving in the right direction.

This is what Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory Brexiter and former party leader told BBC News about what he had learnt after his meeting with Julian Smith, the chief whip.

I think they are reaching a point where they are about to have some kind of agreement - I’m speculating, but that’s my indication - and I think there will be a statement tonight at around about 9 o’clock tonight, one in Strasbourg and I think one here in the House of Commons.

Then they will lay the motion, as amended. And that will be voted upon tomorrow.

But there needs to be time to look at the legalities of this ...

It sounds like they think that they’ve got something. That’s what the statement is going to be about tonight.

Iain Duncan Smith
Iain Duncan Smith Photograph: BBC News

May's trip to Strasbourg tonight for Brexit talks with Juncker confirmed

Theresa May is expected to arrive in Strasbourg around 9pm local time, or 8pm UK times. She has just left, according to a Number 10 source.

Downing Street are stressing that her decision to go does not mean that there will definitely be a deal. But it does mean there is a basis “for further face-to-face discussion”, a source said.

Updated

Theresa May is going to Strasbourg tonight, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports.

Updated

This is from BuzzFeed’s Europe editor, Alberto Nardelli.

During the Brexit UQ Labour’s Hilary Benn did not get a proper answer when he asked if the motion being voted on tomorrow would meet the terms of the EU Withdrawal Act. (See 3.56pm.) Sky’s Faisal Islam has more on what the act says here.

And this is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

This is from the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.

The Brexit committee hearing with Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, has now been rescheduled for 11.15am tomorrow.

Bercow says, if possible, he will ensure that the Stephen Barclay statement to MPs comes before 10pm.

The Labour MP Yvette Cooper rises to make her own point of order. She says the government is holding a month-long consultation at the moment on door closures on the Docklands Light Railway. Isn’t it outrageous that the government is giving more time for a consultation on this than for its Brexit plan?

Bercow says he agrees that MPs must not be “messed around”.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, rises to make his own point of order. He asks Bercow to confirm that the statement to MPs coming from Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, later won’t be immediately after the first two statements. It could be much later, he says.

Bercow says that is correct. The Barclay statement won’t necessarily be at the end of the parliamentary day, he says. But it could be quite late in the evening.

  • Stephen Barclay’s Brexit statement to MPs is likely to come quite late this evening, MPs told.

Bercow hints that tomorrow’s debate could be delayed to allow MPs extra time to table amendments

John Bercow, the speaker, is now responding to points of order.

In response to a question about whether MPs will take time to table amendments if the government tables its motion late tonight, he says there will be time tomorrow. He suggests, if necessary, the main debate could be delayed to ensure that MPs to get time to look at the motion properly and table manuscript amendments.

  • Bercow hints that tomorrow’s debate could be delayed to allow MPs extra time to table amendments.

Sky’s Faisal Islam says Downing Street will have to decide within the next hour whether or not Theresa May heads for Strasbourg.

Back in the Commons, Labour’s Kevin Brennan says it is customary on this occasion to says people have the monkey, not the organ-grinder. But on this occasion MPs have not even got the monkey, he says. And they have not even got the codpiece, he says.

At Westminster Abbey Theresa May was reading a passage from the Bible about the importance of solidarity and working together.

It was chosen to refer to the Commonwealth, but could equally well apply to the EU. Perhaps someone at the abbey chose it to make a point about Brexit.

For the record, here is the reading in full (from the King James version - which may or may not have been the one May was using at Commonwealth Day Service).

For the body is not one member, but many.

If the foot shall say, Because I am not the hand, I am not of the body; is it therefore not of the body?

And if the ear shall say, Because I am not the eye, I am not of the body; is it therefore not of the body?

If the whole body were an eye, where were the hearing? If the whole were hearing, where were the smelling?

But now hath God set the members every one of them in the body, as it hath pleased him.

And if they were all one member, where were the body?

But now are they many members, yet but one body.

And the eye cannot say unto the hand, I have no need of thee: nor again the head to the feet, I have no need of you.

Nay, much more those members of the body, which seem to be more feeble, are necessary:

And those members of the body, which we think to be less honourable, upon these we bestow more abundant honour; and our uncomely parts have more abundant comeliness.

For our comely parts have no need: but God hath tempered the body together, having given more abundant honour to that part which lacked.

That there should be no schism in the body; but that the members should have the same care one for another.

And whether one member suffer, all the members suffer with it; or one member be honoured, all the members rejoice with it.

Updated

Anna Soubry, the Independent Group MP, asks how MPs will be table to table amendments to the motion if it only gets tabled at close of play tonight, at 10.30pm.

Walker says the government wants to publish the motion as soon as possible.

John Bercow, the speaker, says Soubry is right to say 10.30pm is the deadline for the government to table a motion for publication on the order paper tomorrow.

He says, given the concerns MPs have about the time available to table amendments, he can assure them that if necessary he will accept manuscript amendments (ie, amendments tabled by hand on the day, rather than those tabled in advance and printed on the order paper).

These are from my colleague Jennifer Rankin in Brussels.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the ERG, asks Walker if he agrees that it is “incongruous” that it is harder to leave the backstop than the EU.

Walker says Rees-Mogg makes an interesting point.

The Tory Brexiter Mark Francois ask when MPs will see the text of the government’s motion for tomorrow - later today, or just when it appears on the order paper overnight?

Walker says the government will publish it as soon as possible.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, asks why the Irish foreign minister said Theresa May would be travelling to Strasbourg later for Brexit talks. And, if there is an agreement, will the meaningful vote tomorrow be enough to approve the withdrawal agreement under the terms of the EU Withdrawal Act?

Walker says Benn is asking questions he cannot answer. But he says Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, has agreed to appear before the Brexit committee tomorrow to answer questions.

Barclay was due to appear before the committee this afternoon, but Walker’s response implies this session has been postponed.

Corbyn says country is 'in chaos' because of government's dither and delay

Here is an extract from Corbyn’s opening statement.

This is a government in chaos, with a country in chaos because of this mess ...

This chaos cannot go on much longer. The fate of people’s workplaces and jobs and businesses is at stake the longer this government fails to negotiate and simply dither after dither after dither, and then further delay. It is time for answers.

Walker is responding to Corbyn.

He says the meaningful vote will take place tomorrow.

He says Corbyn himself called for article 50 to be triggered immediately after the referendum.

The attorney general’s advice before the Commons sits tomorrow (which will be at 11.30am.)

Corbyn says the government is in chaos.

He says, when he left his office, he did not know who would be replying to his UQ.

We find out from journalists, or the Irish government, about the PM travelling to Strasbourg - or not travelling to Strasbourg.

He says the PM promised votes this week. As a matter of trust, they must go ahead. Time and time again she has delayed, he says.

He says she is running down the clock.

He says the PM’s deal was a bad deal in December, a bad deal in January, when it was defeated, and it remains a bad deal today.

He says these shambolic negotiations are having a real effect. Jobs are being lost, and workplaces are closing, he says.

He says firms are having to spend millions preparing for a no-deal Brexit MPs have already rejected.

What changes has the government got?

When will the attorney general publish his advice?

Given May voted for the Brady amendment, demanding changes, will she vote against her own deal if there are no changes?

Is May willing to compromise?

Corbyn says this chaos cannot go on much longer. It is time for answers.

Jeremy Corbyn's urgent question on Brexit

Jeremy Corbyn reads out his urgent question. He stresses the words “prime minister” when he says he is asking the PM about progress made in the Brexit talks.

Robin Walker, the Brexit minister, says negotiations are ongoing “and at a critical stage”.

He says discussions are still going on. The government will make a statement later today, and the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, will publish a statement with his updated legal advice.

He says he cannot comment on ongoing negotiations. But the government will tell MPs when it can. And the meaningful vote will take place tomorrow.

He says MPs have the chance tomorrow to provide certainty, by voting for May’s deal.

Updated

Robin Walker is responding to Jeremy Corbyn. (See 3.36pm.)

HuffPost’s Paul Waugh thinks the government could be putting up the junior Brexit minister Robin Walker to respond to Jeremy Corbyn.

Walker is not even a minister of state (a senior junior minister, so to speak). He is a parliamentary under secretary - a proper junior minister. If he is replying to Corbyn, that will be quite a snub.

And here is Theresa May arriving at Westminster Abbey for the Commonwealth Day Service.

Theresa May arrives to a Commonwealth service at Westminster Abbey
Theresa May arrives to a Commonwealth service at Westminster Abbey Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Jeremy Corbyn won’t be getting Theresa May for his UQ. the BBC reports.

This is from the Financial Times’ Mehreen Khan.

The Labour party still does not know who will be responding to Jeremy Corbyn’s UQ at 3.30pm.

On the World at One Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory Brexiter and former party leader, claimed that the EU would be willing to change its stance on the backstop. He said:

The words [in the Brady amendment], which the EU is beginning to move on, which is “alternative arrangements”, which would change the backstop - that’s the Malthouse stuff - that’s now being discussed. So it’s very hopeful that they will come to the conclusion they have to change this, and then they change it. In which case, the deal will go through.

A question from a reader.

User avatar for Elmismosol

@andrewsparrow. Andrew, if by March 29, there is no deal in place and, despite asking for an extension of Art. 50, this request is refused by the EU, is that the end? Are we out of the EU regardless of whether Parliament might have voted against 'No deal' and/or for an extension?

The answer is yes. The parliamentary votes would not count. An article 50 extension has to be agreed by all EU states, and parliament cannot tell them what to do.

The only alternative would be for the PM to revoke article 50, which can be done unilaterally. But a) it is impossible to imagine May ever doing this, b) there is a strong legal argument for saying the PM would need parliamentary approval, and c) a UK decision to revoke would not be acceptable to the EU if it were just a delaying tactic, EU law suggests.

These are from ITV’s Robert Peston.

The Irish government are getting ahead of themselves in saying Theresa May will definitely be going to Strasbourg later, a Number 10 source has told my colleague Jessica Elgot.

In an interview with Radio 5 Live Mark Francois, the Tory Brexiter and vice chair of the European Research Group, said that, even though MPs voted for the Brady amendment saying the backstop should be “replaced”, Theresa May never asked for this in her talks with the EU. He told 5 Live’s Emma Barnett:

What that [amendment] said was that they should ‘replace’ - that was the key word - the whole of the backstop. And the House of Commons voted for that. Almost the entire Conservative party voted for that, including almost the entire ERG. And the government begged us – and I use the word deliberately - to vote for the Brady amendment. That then gave the prime minister a mandate to go to Brussels and say, look, I have the support of the House of Commons to ask you to remove the backstop from the withdrawal agreement.

We now know they never asked. The government never formally requested that the EU should replace it. Even though they had a mandate from parliament.

Asked how he could be sure that May did not ask the EU to replace, he said:

We know from sources on the other side of the channel that they never asked …. We know from sources within the commission that she didn’t.

And asked why he thought May did not press the EU on this, Francois said:

Because she didn’t believe in it.

She’s never wanted to do it. She is stuck to plan A. She is absolutely wedded to her original withdrawal agreement.

Francois also argued that this showed there would be no point in MPs voting for a motion backing May’s deal, conditional on further changes to it being made. (See (See 9.13am and 11.44am). He explained:

What is the point of us voting for something conditional, when we already did [so] in Brady, but then the government, because the remainers in the cabinet, and senior civil servants like Olly Robbins, didn’t agree with that, made sure that we never asked the EU the question in the first place.

Mark Francois
Mark Francois Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Jeremy Corbyn says he wants Theresa May to respond to his urgent question personally.

ITV’s Robert Peston has an interesting take on the John McDonnell speech. (See 1.24pm.)

This is what Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister and deputy prime minister, said earlier about Theresa May going to Strasbourg for Brexit talks later. (See 1.35pm.)

The negotiations are ongoing. Many had hoped we would have clarity at this stage, particularly in advance of the vote tomorrow. We don’t yet.

The British prime minister is travelling to Strasbourg this evening, I understand, to try to finalise an agreement, if that is possible, to be able to put that to a meaningful vote in Westminster tomorrow.

Downing Street has refused to confirm that, saying only: “We have not confirmed anything at this stage.”

Coveney also said the Irish government remained opposed to changing the withdrawal text. Asked about possible concessions, he said:

I don’t think it is helpful to go into the detail of what the obstacles are to getting agreement but there are some.

But our approach remains the same, consistent. We are very clear that the withdrawal agreement can’t change in terms of text.

But we also want to be helpful in terms of providing the clarity and reassurance that is needed in Westminster that the backstop is intended to be temporary.

Nobody is looking to trap anybody anywhere permanently, but the backstop needs to be there and it needs to be robust.

Simon Coveney
Simon Coveney Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

Steve Baker, the Tory Brexiter and deputy chair of the European Research Group, thinks the Irish government making announcements on behalf of London (see 1.35pm) could be a foretaste of things to come.

Anti-Brexit campaigners and their dogs holding a ‘dogs dinner’ photocall outside the Houses of Parliament today.
Anti-Brexit campaigners and their dogs holding a ‘dogs dinner’ photocall outside the Houses of Parliament today.
 Photograph: Matthew Chattle/REX/Shutterstock

And this is from the BBC’s Adam Fleming.

This is from the Irish Times’ Denis Staunton.

But the BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler, says a May/Juncker meeting is not yet confirmed.

May flying to Strasbourg later for talks with Juncker to try to finalise Brexit deal, Dublin reveals

Simon Coveney, the Irish deputy prime minister, has said that Theresa May is flying to Strasbourg tonight to try to finalise a Brexit agreement, the Irish Independent’s Kevin Doyle reports.

'Never say never' - Raab refuses to deny leadership ambitions

I’ve been to see Dominic Raab deliver what we are obliged to call a “wide-ranging” speech in London – that is, one signalling leadership intentions. As is often the case for Conservative MP seeking to expand their appeal, it was about social mobility.

Of course, with Raab being the former Brexit secretary and one of the likely standard-bearers for the Brexit wing of the party in a fight to succeed Theresa May, the subsequent Q&A saw lots of Brexit questions.

Raab more or less dodged them all, declining to say whether May should pursue no-deal or indeed if she should go. He did say May should, on her Brexit plan, seek to “get the deal into the kind of shape needed to get through the Commons” - ie amend the Irish backstop. He did not suggest how to get the EU to agree to this.

He also dismissed the warnings from Michael Gove that voting against May’s plan tomorrow could put departure in peril: “I don’t think it’s acceptable to say it’s either this deal or no Brexit.”

However, Raab did more or less concede he had an eye on Number 10. Asked if he wanted to be PM, he replied: “Never say never.”

The actual speech, hosted by newish right-leaning thinktank Onward inside the hugely flash offices of PR firm Maitland in St Pancras, was fairly low-key, beginning with Raab’s personal backstory as the son of a Czech-born Jewish refugee.

Amid the standard social mobility metaphors – at one point Raab talked about “smashing through glass ceilings and providing ladders of opportunity” – there were some specific, such as paying more to teachers in deprived schools, and providing non-graduate routes into professions such as law and accountancy.

Is it all enough to make Raab a contender when the time comes? Who knows. But is is a signal of intent.

Dominic Raab
Dominic Raab Photograph: Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images

McDonnell claims Hammond's 'cowardice' stopped him doing more to prevent Brexit damaging economy

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has accused Philip Hammond, the chancellor, of “cowardice” because he believes Hammond could have done more to prevent Brexit damaging the economy. In a speech at Bloomberg in London, ahead of the spring statement on Wednesday, McDonnell said:

The position of the chancellor of the exchequer comes with a responsibility which I think Philip Hammond actually has abdicated in his current role. If Brexit ends up leading to even half of what the government’s own forecasts suggest could happen, I think history will judge harshly the few who could have prevented and averted this potential disaster and did so little.

McDonnell said the “effects of their complicity” were already there, including the “slowest growth in six years, investment falling, manufacturing in recession, a trade deficit of over £10bn last quarter, growth forecasts being revised downwards by the Bank of England and others ... firms announcing their intentions to leave the UK”. He went on:

I think all this was avoidable were it not for the political weakness and yes, these are strong words, the cowardice of the chancellor of the exchequer.

Failure to stand up for our economy and failure to stand up for the interests of our country.

And whatever happens with Brexit, that’s damage to people’s lives that cannot be undone.

McDonnell was particularly critical of Hammond for not ruling out a no-deal Brexit. He explained:

We’re on the verge of a no-deal Brexit which could decimate British industry and bring about – in the words of the Bank of England – a worse economic catastrophe than the financial crisis ten years ago.

Philip Hammond has repeatedly spoken about the dangers of a no-deal Brexit. But here we are, a couple of weeks away from one, and all he has to show for his high office is words. Can you imagine Rab Butler, Nigel Lawson or Ken Clarke allowing their Cabinet colleagues to best them in this way? Let alone Hugh Gaitskell, Denis Healey or Gordon Brown?

(Hammond would argue that it was precisely because he and other cabinet colleagues have been saying that a no-deal Brexit would be unacceptable, Theresa May agreed to give MPs a vote this week on ruling one out if her deal gets defeated. Hammond and the Treasury have also been arguing in government for a Brexit that does least damage to trade, achieving a partial success when the cabinet backed the “Chequers plan” that was unacceptable to Brexiters like David Davis and Boris Johnson.)

John McDonnell speech at Bloomberg
John McDonnell speech at Bloomberg Photograph: James Veysey/REX/Shutterstock

Theresa May could be heading for Strasbourg later for a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, the BBC reports.

After the two urgent questions in the Commons (see 12.33pm), we are going to have three statements. The one from Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, will come last. It would be surprising if starts before 6.30pm, and it could be quite a bit later.

What we don’t know yet is whether the government will announce its plans for the motion for tomorrow’s Brexit debate in the UQ at 3.30pm, in the Barclay statement later, or at some other point entirely.

A statement from a secretary of state (Barclay) would normally come before a statement from a minister of state (Burt), but the Barclay statement may have been held back because ministers won’t be sure what is happening until later this evening.

Irish PM says any extension of article 50 must have purpose

Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, has said that, if the UK does get an article 50 extension, it must be for a purpose. Speaking at the launch of the Irish government’s national childcare scheme, he said:

If there is going to be an extension, it has to be an extension with a purpose.

Nobody across the European Union wants to see a rolling cliff edge where tough decisions just get put off until the end of April, then to the end of May and then maybe till the end of July.

Responding to reports that Theresa May might offer MPs a vote on a motion backing the deal subject to further assurances on the backstop being provided (see 9.13am and 11.44am), Varadkar said this would be a mistake. He told reporters:

I do hear some suggestion that the votes may be called off in favour of a new vote as a result of which the House of Commons would tell the European Union what they want. That really misses the point. We’re two-and-a-half years if not nearly three years now since the referendum.

It is far too late for the United Kingdom to tell us what they want. The withdrawal agreement requires a compromise and this Withdrawal Agreement is already a compromise.

Leo Varadkar
Leo Varadkar Photograph: RollingNews/REX/Shutterstock

Theresa May has had a further conversation with Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, which finished recently, Downing Street has said. “Talks continue,” a spokesperson added.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, was not keen to discuss Brexit when he was doorstepped by ITV this morning.

But Barnier was a bit more forthcoming when he spoke to AFP. He told the agency as he arrived for a meeting of EU ambassadors:

We talked all weekend and now the discussions, the negotiations, are between the government in London and the parliament in London.

Labour have tabled an urgent question to Theresa May, asking her to tell MPs what’s happening on Brexit.

The fact that Jeremy Corbyn is asking for May to come to the despatch box does not mean he will get her. The government will have to put up a minister to respond, but it could be Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, or David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister.

This is from the Independent’s John Rentoul, commending an argument made by James Kirkup, who runs the Social Market Foundation thinktank.

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg agrees.

Labour’s Yvette Cooper has said she and Conservative MPs would attempt to force votes on an extension of article 50 on Thursday should the prime minister pull the votes, saying it would be a “straight-up lie” to parliament if Theresa May changed her plans.

In speech setting out the next steps should parliament vote for an extension, Cooper said May must come forward with a process for how the extension should work.

The former shadow home secretary, who has been one of the key players in parliamentary moves to avoid no deal, said May should offer a series of indicative votes on the future relationship with Europe and a consultative process with business and trade unions, as well as a possible citizens’ assembly.

If the prime minister continued to prevaricate and attempt changes to the backstop, Cooper said she and others would attempt to force a new process.

If [May] comes forward with a process on Thursday, then that would be a way forward ... but if she doesn’t that is when we will be looking at possible amendments or other approaches ... to make sure you can get indicative votes.

In her speech at the Centre for European Reform, Cooper said that it “the time to pivot not to dig in” and that the risk of extension was that May would “do more of the same, running round in circles on the backstop and running down the clock.”

We have to use an extension and work out what kind of Brexit people want to see.

We are going to have to start facing these choices this summer anyway. Let’s decide before we finish article 50 rather than after. The PM should use [the A50 extension] to be bold and offer a series of indicative votes, then publish the government’s draft mandate for the future so that can be amended by parliament.

Cooper said that in order to grant an extension, the EU would need to see “a sense of purpose” and said May would need to “establish a timetable or structure before the European council” which takes place on 21 March.

Cooper said any final Brexit approach, which covered both exit and future relationship, may need “public consent for it to endure” which she said could be a general election or a referendum.

However, Cooper said she was cautious of endorsing any referendum too quickly and said it was right that Labour’s Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson had pulled their amendment to offer a referendum on May’s deal, saying she could not endorse that deal.

Yvette Cooper
Yvette Cooper Photograph: Stuart C Wilson/Getty Images for Theirworld

Do Tory MPs have to wait until December before they can force out Theresa May?

Here’s a question from a reader.

It is true that, technically, Conservative MPs have to wait until December before they can use the “48 letters” mechanism (letters from 15% of MPs to the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee demanding a confidence vote) to try to force out the party leader. If a leader wins a vote of this kind, as May did on 12 December, no other confidence vote is allowed for another year.

But, ultimately, at least in normal circumstances, any leader requires the confidence of his or her party, and if MPs were determined to force May out now they could. For example, there could be a mass cabinet walk-out. Or MPs could start refusing to vote for government business.

(Of course, it did not work like this when Labour MPs tried to defenestrate Jeremy Corbyn in 2016, after the referendum. But Corbyn felt strong enough to stay put because he knew he had the support of the membership. The Conservative membership is much smaller, and it never chose May because she became party leader without the need for a ballot.)

As a last resort Conservative MPs could also vote against the government in a confidence motion, on the assumption that another party leader might take over in the 14-day grace period before a no-confidence vote leads to a general election.

The Commons order paper says Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, will be giving evidence to the Brexit committee at 12.15pm. But the committee says that that is a mistake, and that the hearing is scheduled for 4pm. If Barclay does give a statement to the Commons, it will take place after the statement is over, the committee says.

This is from ITV’s Robert Peston.

This is a good illustration of how commitments given at the despatch box in the House of Commons can become binding, even if they do not have the force of law.

Downing Street says meaningful vote on Brexit deal will go ahead tomorrow

I’m just back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. It was not hugely enlightening - it sounds as though the key decision about what MPs will vote on tomorrow has yet to be decided, because some issues remain unresolved - but here are the main points anyway.

  • Downing Street said a meaningful vote on Brexit will still take place tomorrow. The prime minister’s spokesman advised reporters not to believe reports that the government has decided to offer MPs a vote on a motion backing Theresa May’s deal subject to the UK getting further assurances on the backstop (see 9.13am), but he would not say what the motion will say. It will be published later today. Reporters came away with the impression that the PM has not yet decided what will happen. This is from my colleague Rowena Mason.
  • The spokesman said that talks with the EU on a solution to the backstop were continuing.
  • Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, is expected to give a statement to MPs today about the talks, the spokesman said.
  • The spokesman confirmed that, if May loses the vote tomorrow, MPs will still get a vote on a no-deal Brexit, and then a vote on extending article 50. Originally the two votes were due on Wednesday and on Thursday. But the spokesman would not comment on claims that both might be held on Wednesday. If the vote is lost on Tuesday, Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, will announce the details in a business statement.
  • The spokesman would not rule out May holding a briefing for cabinet ministers on what has been decided later today.
10 Downing Street
10 Downing Street Photograph: Jonathan Brady/PA

Updated

The Labour MP Yvette Cooper has been making the same point in her speech this morning, the BBC’s Norman Smith reports.

Cooper may have been remembering this exchange from last month.

I’m off to the lobby briefing now. I will post again after 11.30am.

The Conservative MP Nick Boles, who has been leading efforts in the Commons to allow MPs to vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit, has posted a thread on Twitter saying Theresa May will have lost the confidence of the Commons if she goes back on the promises she made about this week’s votes.

It starts here.

And here is the key tweet.

Gove says Brexit should be compromise that acknowledges concerns of remain voters

Michael Gove, the environment secretary and the most prominent Brexiter left in cabinet, has written a long article for the Daily Mail urging MPs to back Theresa May’s plan. Here are the main points.

  • Gove rejects Brexiter claims that May’s plan would turn the UK into a “vassal state”. He says:

It is not the case that this deal makes us a colony or vassal state. How could it when it gives us total control over our borders and ends our automatic payments to the EU? Colonies, by definition, don’t have control over their borders and they give up their natural resources to others.

This deal means we have the absolute freedom to decide who comes into this country, and on what terms. It also allows us to decide what pan-European programmes, if any, we want to join in.

As one of the leaders of the leave campaign, I know that two of the most resonant demands from voters were control of our borders and money. This deal delivers — completely and, as it happens, without compromise — on both.

Gove does not say it, but one of the Tories who has been most vocal in claiming that May’s deal would turn the UK into a “vassal state” has been Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, (eg, here), who along with Gove joint leader of the Vote Leave campaign.

  • Gove says Brexit should be a compromise that acknowledges the concerns of those who voted remain. He says:

Forty-eight per cent of the country voted to remain. Their voices need to be listened to, their hopes incorporated in our plan for the future. That doesn’t mean giving in to the much smaller number who want to overturn the decision and frustrate Brexit.

But it must mean that none of us leavers should try to make our perfect Brexit the enemy of the common good.

Which is why I hope that everyone who believes in our democracy — in the importance of delivering Brexit and in the critical need to unite our country — will get behind the prime minister’s deal this week.

It is, of course, a compromise. But so many of the great British traditions and institutions I and many others value are the result of compromise.

  • He says people did not vote for a no-deal Brexit in 2016.

Some may say that ditching this deal will allow us to leave without any compromises. But we didn’t vote to leave without a deal. That wasn’t the message of the campaign I helped lead. During that campaign, we said we should do a deal with the EU and be part of the network of free trade deals that covers all Europe, from Iceland to Turkey.

Leaving without a deal on March 29 would not honour that commitment. It would undoubtedly cause economic turbulence. Almost everyone in this debate accepts that.

Michael Gove
Michael Gove Photograph: Hannah McKay/Reuters

In a clip for ITV, David Cameron, the former prime minister, has said that he supports Theresa May and that a no-deal Brexit would not be “a good idea at all”.

Updated

Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, has gone into Number 10, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports.

Blackford says SNP to table motion demanding right to hold independence referendum after Brexit

Ian Blackford, the Scottish National party’s Westminster leader, has said Jeremy Corbyn and Labour are trying to give themselves “wriggle room” by suggesting a second EU referendum should only be held once there is a different, strengthened Brexit offer.

John McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor, said on Sunday Labour would want to use any delay to article 50 to press for changes to Brexit rather than put Theresa May’s deal forward against remain in a second EU referendum.

The party’s language on the terms of a referendum has subtly shifted, and now focuses on pushing for a “credible” Brexit offer. A statement backed at Scottish Labour’s conference in Dundee spoke of “an amendment [at Westminster] in favour of a public vote, between the option on the one hand of a credible leave deal and on the other hand remain”.

Blackford said he could understand why Labour wanted to postpone a Commons vote on staging that second referendum until later this month. “We don’t have the majority to do so. I think we can get it but we’re not there yet,” he said.

However Labour’s new emphasis on a different Brexit offer was disingenuous, he said. He went on:

What Jeremy is still trying to do is give himself wriggle room. I don’t think that Jeremy, from a fundamental point of view, supports the people’s vote.

Corbyn wanted to “stop short of getting into the position where you can have a people’s vote,” he said.

The SNP are tabling a motion in the Commons later today calling for the powers to stage a second Scottish independence referendum if the UK leaves the EU. It is expected to be called by the Speaker, John Bercow. Even though it will be heavily defeated, Blackford said he thought it would be the first time the Commons has debated and voted on independence.

He said the motion was laying the groundwork for a future political battles on independence. The next source of conflict between the UK and Scottish governments is likely to be formal demands in coming weeks from Nicola Sturgeon for the legal powers to stage a second independence referendum.

We are making the case that Scotland has to have a say in this. In essence, we are all European citizens and Scotland voted to remain. We have to determine our own future if Westminster is determined to take us out of the EU.

Ian Blackford.
Ian Blackford. Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg says, if Theresa May tried to cancel the votes on a no-deal Brexit and extending article 50 promised this week (promised in the event of her deal being rejected), there could be government resignations, or an attempt to remove her.

In his London Playbook briefing, Politico Europe’s Jack Blanchard has a good description of what it would mean if Theresa May changed her mind and asked MPs to vote tomorrow for a motion backing her deal, conditional on various new backstop assurances being agreed.

This course of action would involve May breaking her solemn promise to parliament to hold the next meaningful vote by March 12, which even by her own somewhat flexible standards of truth-telling is pretty hard to imagine. There is a *slight* risk too that it would fuel criticism that the Brexiteers (and indeed the prime minister) have retreated into fantasy land, and prefer to vote on imaginary deals rather than the one Britain spent the past two years negotiating.

The Sun’s political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, thinks Theresa May will end up pulling tomorrow’s planned vote (a vote on an actual deal available to the UK) and replace it with an indicative vote (a vote on a hypothetical deal, so far rejected by the EU), as the Times splash suggested she might. (See 9.13am.)

George Freeman, the Tory former minister and former chair of the prime minister’s policy board, told the Today programme this morning that, although he was opposed to replacing Theresa May as party leader now, he would like that to happen after Brexit. He explained:

I hope the prime minister can get withdrawal through and then I do think we need to choose a new leader for a new generation with a new vision of a conservatism that can make sense of Brexit and reinspire and reunite the nation.

I hope we can do that having secured a sensible withdrawal agreement. A panicked change of leader now will solve nothing, we have got to get this through.

I hope colleagues this week will recognise that: vote for the deal and then we can change.

Freeman also said, if May’s deal is rejected this week, the UK should adopt an Efta-style arrangement (European free trade association), like Norway’s, that would keep the UK in the single market.

George Freeman
George Freeman Photograph: BBC

Marcus Fysh, another Tory MP from the European Research Group (ERG), the hard Brexit caucus which represents up to 80 MPs in the party, told the Today programme this morning that he thought the EU might agree to revise its stance on the backstop if it saw the plans produced by his group showing how existing technology could avoid the need for a hard border in Ireland. He said:

That really is all the evidence the EU should require. I think it would be worth reiterating that and actually putting the detail of the proposals which we worked up with the Government over recent weeks on the table so that the EU could be fully aware and discuss what it was exactly we were proposing.

(The EU would say they already well aware of the plans, which are not exactly a secret and which have been promoted repeatedly by the ERG in recent weeks. The People Vote campaign published a critique of them which is available here.)

Tories suspect May could pull Tuesday's key vote after talks fail to deliver progress

We have not even got to Brexit day yet, but already the nation is running short of one much-used commodity - Westminster cliches. It used to be meaningful to talk about a “crunch week” for the prime minister. But in Brexit there have been more crunch moments than you get in a walk through the Cornflake factory after a spillage, and so the jargon doesn’t work any more.

This week we are due to get the fifth big Brexit vote (after meaningful vote 1, MV1, and three next steps votes, NS1, NS2 and NS3). If if all proceeds as people were expecting at the end of last week, Theresa May will lose badly in the vote on Tuesday (MV2) and, after MPs rule out no-deal on Wednesday, they will vote to extend article 50 on Thursday. This would be a very significant development; the UK would no longer be leaving the EU, as planned, on Friday 29 March, and arguably May and her government would have lost control of the whole Brexit process. (I say arguably, because it is not as if her grasp on events as been 100% up to now anyway.)

But this morning it is not even clear that MV2 will go ahead as expected. In the Times splash (paywall), Oliver Wright says May is under pressure to replace the vote on a motion backing her deal with a vote on a motion on an alternative plan that would be acceptable to parliament. Wright reports:

In phone calls with Downing Street, leading Tories in the Commons gave warning that the prime minister could face another three-figure defeat if she went ahead with her plan.

They have advised her to halt the vote and replace it with a motion setting out the kind of Brexit deal that would be acceptable to Tory MPs to keep the party together and put pressure on Brussels.

“As it stands her deal is going to be defeated,” a senior party source said. “It has been made clear to Downing Street that it would be eminently sensible to avoid that by proposing a motion that the party can support. Whether they listen or not is another matter” ...

Tory MPs have also urged Mrs May to come up with a Plan B should no deal be reached. “Anything that avoids what looks like a massive defeat on Tuesday is worth considering,” the former Tory chief whip Andrew Mitchell said.

Under the plan, instead of holding a meaningful vote tomorrow, the government would lay a conditional motion setting out terms that might be acceptable to parliament to deal with the Irish backstop issue. Those who support the plan say it would send a message to the EU about the kind of deal that might get a parliamentary majority.

Yesterday No 10 were insisting the vote would go ahead. But overnight they are saying the talks in Brussels are “deadlocked” and the prospect of a last-minute U-turn is being taken seriously by Tory MPs. Mark Francois, vice chair of the European Research Group, which represents Conservatives pushing for a harder Brexit, told Sky News this morning that he thought there was a good chance that May would adopt the plan described by the Times. Asked if he thought May would pull the vote, he replied:

I would say, as of now, this morning, I’d say it’s about 50/50 that they are going to pull the vote, despite everything they are saying, because why come back to the House of Commons to be thumped again? What does that achieve?

Here is the agenda for the day.

10am: Yvette Cooper, the Labour chair of the home affairs committee, gives a speech to the Centre for European Reform on Brexit.

11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.

Morning: Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, gives a speech on the opportunity society.

11am: John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, gives a speech ahead of the spring statement on Wednesday.

12.15pm: Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, gives evidence to the Brexit committee.

4.15pm: Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, gives evidence to the work and pensions committee on the benefit freeze.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, but I expect to be focusing mostly on Brexit. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up, at around 6pm.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply ATL, although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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