If body language alone were enough to secure a favourable exit deal from the European Union, then Britain’s plucky band of negotiators would have nothing to worry about. “Cool heads, strong leadership and traditional British resolve” will get us through, Brexit secretary David Davis reassured business leaders last week, channelling the spirit of Dunkirk. Behind the scenes, one Downing Street source describes the negotiating stance as a “shoulders back, arms-out-wide posture”. The chest is puffed out, but Her Majesty’s Government is ready for a hug if one is on offer.
Quite what this means in practice is anybody’s guess. A month on from article 50 and senior European diplomats have resorted to taking UK journalists out to lunch to ask them who their negotiating partners even are. With the office of Britain’s permanent representative in Brussels depleted and demoralised since the forced resignation of previous ambassador Sir Ivan Rogers, the captain was meant to be Davis, operating from the Department of Exiting the European Union (DexEU) at 9 Downing Street. But as the phoney war draws to an end and real talks loom, the momentum appears to have shifted next door where the prime minister’s personal team are taking an increasingly hands-on role.
One theory is that Theresa May is keen to depoliticise the process, preferring to see senior civil servants take the lead. By keeping the talks low-key and behind closed doors (certainly until after the general election on 8 June), May had been hoping to avoid the kind of early public clash that spoiled a dinner with EU leaders last week. More cynical minds question whether the sidelining of other ministerial voices is more to do with May’s infamous tendency to centralise power.
Some European diplomats wonder if the prime minister’s co-chief of staff Nick Timothy is the man to watch. But even he was not present to see the whites of their eyes at a Downing Street dinner last week at which EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and commission president Jean-Claude Juncker were introduced to key British interlocutors. Davis acknowledged his place in the pecking order by describing it as a chance “to meet the prime minister and her team, our team”. Things went so badly that the Europeans made clear the prime minister would not be welcome in future unless she adopts a more amenable style.
Whoever sits across the table will need the full machinery of government behind them to stand a chance. Brussels is stuffed full of expert international trade negotiators to whom Whitehall has outsourced the job since joining the EU in 1973. Britain now wants not only to strike an ambitious deal with Europe but commence talks with scores of other potential new partners at the same time. After warning of a shortage of experienced lawyers and commercial negotiators, mandarins have been seconding staff from private-sector employers such as Barclays to fill the gaps. Even so, the numbers squeezed into DexEU’s warren of offices have not grown as fast as some expected. In December, Davis told MPs he already had 330 people at his disposal. Last week, junior minister David Jones admitted it was only up to 350, but “growing fast”. “The department is recruiting the brightest and the best from across the civil service, the wider public sector and the private sector,” Jones told Labour MP Catherine West in a written answer.
All the time, hostility is mounting on the other side of the Channel. At first Brits feared the stiffest opposition would come from Brussels bureaucrats, men and women whose very existence was threatened by a country daring to question its membership. Other national capitals were seen as more friendly territory and subjected to whistlestop diplomacy.
Dutch, Danish and Irish ministers met last month to discuss their shared concern about losing a vital trading partner and liberal ally if the UK crashes out of Europe without a good deal. Eastern Europe and Scandinavian capitals have been singled out in the Foreign Office as another potential weak flank for the EU. But so far, the EU 27 have shown a remarkably united front against almost all the key British demands.
German chancellor Angela Merkel underlined the poisoned atmosphere after last Wednesday’s dinner by accusing the British of living in a fantasy. “I have to put this so clearly because I get the impression that some in Great Britain still have illusions about this, and that is a waste of time,” she told German MPs. Key industrial voices, such as the European carmakers who were expected to fight Britain’s corner, are also so far striking a defeated tone. Ultimately, the UK government says it is confident that economic sense will prevail.
If Europe won’t give Britain a preferential trade deal without too many strings attached, ministers say they are ready to jut out their chins and sail off into the sunset in search of better deals abroad. Either way, an air of confident bluster is essential right now to compensate for the fact that Brussels appears to hold all the trump cards. Davis predicts “rough and tumble” ahead. Letting the shoulders slump a bit can wait for later.
“We should be under no illusions about the scale of the task ahead of us. We are reshaping Britain’s place in the world,” the Brexit minister said in his more candid moments. “Securing an agreement with the EU within the two-year period about our withdrawal and the shape of our future relationship will be challenging. We will have difficult issues to confront. Compromises will be necessary on both sides.”
