The latest IHS Markit/CIPS survey shows that stockpiling for a no-deal Brexit is now well under way and giving UK manufacturing a “temporary boost” (Report, 3 January). It is also likely to be unleashing what in business circles is known as the “bullwhip effect”. This amplifies fluctuations in demand as they ripple back along a supply chain, destabilising production and distribution operations. It is an effect that has been observed and researched for over 60 years, though to our knowledge has not been discussed in the numerous studies of Brexit’s economic impact. Past experience and analytical modelling suggest that the current upswing in demand for stockpiled products will not simply be counterbalanced by an equivalent downswing once any Brexit disruption is over. The negative supply-chain impacts will be much more pronounced and longer-lasting both in the UK and across the EU. They will also be greatly intensified if, as seems likely, consumers start to panic-buy in anticipation of a no-deal Brexit. Even if the no-deal scenario is finally averted, the bullwhip effect has already been triggered, probably to the longer-term detriment of businesses on both sides of the Channel.
Professor Alan McKinnon and Professor Jan Fransoo
Kühne Logistics University, Hamburg, Germany
• It is a great pity Dave’s exclusion from the House comes a few years too late (Cameron barred from parliament after failing to renew his pass, 3 January).
Peter Lowe
Newcastle upon Tyne
• Isn’t it a pity that Jeremy Corbyn and Caroline Lucas can’t swap jobs? He would be quite happy pottering around his allotment being a one-man voice of reason, and she would do a good job of revitalising the Labour party (Corbyn defies Labour calls to seek second referendum, 3 January).
Martin Guha
London
• Join the debate – email guardian.letters@theguardian.com
• Read more Guardian letters – click here to visit gu.com/letters
• Do you have a photo you’d like to share with Guardian readers? Click here to upload it and we’ll publish the best submissions in the letters spread of our print edition
.png?w=600)
