Afternoon summary
- Theresa May has said the government is working on a “fallback option” to address the Irish border issue after Brexit. But, speaking at a press conference in Macedonia, she also insisted that the UK would operate “an independent trade policy” from 2021 - even though it has emerged that the fallback option would involve the UK maintaining the EU’s common external tariff for a period after the end of the transition in 2020, which could make implementing new trade deals impossible. (See 5.06pm.)
- John Bercow, the speaker, has allowed an emergency debate to be held on Monday next week about complaints that the government is using a procedural device to block a private member’s bill that would prevent the boundary review reducing the number of MPs from 650 to 600. The Labour MP Afzal Khan requested the emergency debate because his bill is being held up. Many Tory MPs backed him when he first raised this issue last week.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Damian Green floats plan to get homeowner pensioners to pay £30,000 each into national care fund
Damian Green, the former first secretary of state, was on the Today programme this morning promoting a plan he has drawn up for a national care fund, to pay for social care. It would everyone having to contribute something - effectively, compulsory insurance - but the key feature of his proposal is to get pensioner homeowners to use equity release to pay for their contributions, unlocking some of the vast wealth tied up in property.
He told the programme:
It’s a staggering amount of money. It is 1.7 trillion of equity owned by over-65s with no mortgage left on their homes. A very small amount of that could solve a lot of this crisis ...
My suggestion would take a very small part of that wealth and leave them significant amounts of money to hand on to their children, because I absolutely accept that inheritance through the generations is important.
Green also said that his proposal was better than the so-called “dementia tax” plan which was widely criticised when unveiled in the 2017 Conservative party manifesto because it would ensure pensioner homeowners were left with a “significant” amount of the value of their property to pass on to their children.
In a speech to an Age UK/Reform conference later he fleshed out his plan in more detail. It would involve pensioners with property having to pay an insurance premium of perhaps £30,000 per head to pay for possible future care. They could obtain the money by downsizing or by equity release, he said. Explaining the advantages, he said:
The £30,000 figure is purely illustrative, and I am conscious of two caveats. One, that government would still need to cover the long tail of the small number who incurred the most costs, and secondly, that those with no equity would still need to be covered by taxation.
But this radical policy would meet some of the most difficult political concerns.
Downsizing and using the capital freed up to buy an insurance policy would still allow the homeowner to pass the full value of their remaining property on to their children.
While equity release schemes would reduce the amount available to pass onto their children, by putting in place a minimum fixed amount that would be inherited, some of the equity in their property would be guaranteed to pass on to their children
Using their own money would enable older people to take greater control over their care options and potentially enable them to choose better arrangements than would be available to people entirely reliant on the state
The options potentially enable people to stay in their own homes longer which is of benefit from a cost and emotional point of view and is shown to improve the length and quality of older people’s lives.
An insurance policy costs money, but it would eliminate older people’s concern that end of life care costs could eliminate all their assets and leave them with nothing to pass on to their children.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, has said the UK should table new customs plans within the next two weeks. These are from RTE’s Tony Connelly.
BREAKING: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says that the British Prime Minister Theresa May shd table a new proposal on the future customs relationship between the EU & UK within the next 2 wks, hints it cd see continued alignment btwn whole of UK and EU on customs into the future
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
the Taoiseach said the prime minister had given him some insights into what he called “new thinking” on the British side.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Varadkar: I said to the prime minister that any move that helped to align all of the EU and the UK in terms of customs into the future would be beneficial.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
“It would help solve some of the problems related to the border but not all of them. It would certainly help us continue to trade between Britain and Ireland much as we do now.”
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Following a 45 minute meeting on the margins of the EU-Western Balkans Summit, Mr Varadkar warned repeatedly that keeping the UK aligned on customs was not the only thing required to avoid a hard border.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Theresa May’s new thinking, he said, was presented “verbally and conceptually” and as such Dublin could not respond until it was presented as a formal written proposal in the Brexit negotiations.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Taoiseach said he was “not discouraged”by the meeting.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
“The PM gave me an insight into some new thinking the UK government as in relation to customs. Obviously we’ll see how that develops. We haven’t been able to get any detail on that yet,but certainly any move on customs that brings the U.K. closer to the EU is to be welcomed.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
He said he made it clear to the prime minister that Ireland would insist on its red line of a legally operable backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, whatever progress was made on customs.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Asked if the Theresa May could deliver on a new customs relationship given the depths of opposition by hardliners in her cabinet, the Taoiseach said he believed she could, although it involved the “internal politics of the UK.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
What May said about UK customs plans - Summary and analysis
Here are the main points from Theresa May’s press conference.
- May said the UK would be bringing forward a fresh plan for a Brexit “fallback option” for the Irish border. The original fallback option was set up in paragraph 49 of the joint report (pdf) agreed by the UK and the EU in December. It said:
The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom’s intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement.
This afternoon May said that she had had a constructive meeting with the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, earlier today. She went on:
We are working on what our future customs relationship with the European Union will be. In December, when the joint report was published between the European Union and the United Kingdom, we set out clearly options in relation to the commitment that we have given for no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. We expect that to be dealt through the overall relationship we have with the European Union. But there were then two further levels of option, including the final fallback option.
The commission then published a fallback option which was not acceptable to to us. And we will be bringing forward our own proposal for that fallback option in due course.
Her reference to the unacceptable EU proposal was to the draft withdrawal agreement published in February, which defined the fallback in terms of Northern Ireland forming a common regulatory area with the Republic of Ireland - implying a regulatory gap between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This morning it was reported that May will propose keeping the UK bound by EU’s common external tariff for a period after the transition as an alternative fallback position (see 9.24am), and her comment this afternoon was consistent with that being her plan. This would amount to the UK effectively staying in the customs union for longer than planned, although the government would dispute that terminology.
- May said that UK would operate “an independent trade policy” from 2021. Brexiters are opposed to staying in the customs union for any longer than necessary because, although the UK will be free to negotiate trade deals during the transition, it will not be able to implement them until it leaves the customs union at the end of the transition. As my colleague Heather Stewart reports, the proposed new “backstop” plan would involve the UK maintaining the common external tariff for a period after 2020 but opting out of the common commercial policy (which prevents countries negotiating their own trade deals). This afternoon May stressed she was committed to being able to operate an independent trade policy from 2021. She said:
First of all, we are very clear that we will be leaving the customs union. We will be, in future, outside that customs union able to develop our own independent trade policy ...
We are committed, as we leave the customs union and as we look to that future economic partnership, to ensuring that we have a relationship that enables us to have as frictionless trade with the European Union as possible, that we also do [avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland] but also that we are able to have an independent trade policy. And that’s what we will be doing and ensuring that at the end of the implementation period - so, as from the end of December 2020 - we will be able to be operating an independent trade policy.
The danger for May is that her two proposals - remaining bound by the common external tariff for a period after 2020, but having an independent trade policy at the same time - will be ruled mutually exclusive by the EU.
Updated
No 10 says EU withdrawal bill will return to Commons before summer recess
There is some sign of movement in the Brexit legislative logjam, with the news that the EU withdrawal bill, amended by the Lords 15 times, will now return to the Commons for MPs to consider the amendments before the summer recess.
Earlier on Thursday the leader of the Commons, Andrea Leadsom, announced next week’s business, which had no space for the bill – or any news of other Brexit bills.
But Theresa May’s spokeswoman told journalists this afternoon it would return to the Commons “within weeks rather than months” – that is, before the long summer recess, which begins on 24 July. She said:
We are taking time to consider the amendments, and that is what you would expect us to do on an issue so important.
There is still, however, no news on when MPs can expect to again see the Brexit-related trade and customs bills, or any news at all on bills connected to immigration and fisheries.
May says UK will publish its own plan for Brexit 'fallback option' on Irish border
Q: Will the UK have proposals on customs by the end of June?
May says she has a very useful meeting with the Irish PM today. In the joint report in December the UK and the EU set out options for Ireland. Those measures are supposed to be addressed through the UK/EU relationship. There was a fallback option. When the EU turned that into a text, there was a version of the fallback option. May says that was unacceptable to the UK. But the UK will bring forward its own fallback option, she says.
- May says UK will bring forward new plans for a “fallback option” to address the Irish border problem “in due course”.
This seems to confirm the thrust of what the Telegraph and Politico Europe were reporting this morning. (See 9.24am.)
Updated
May says UK will leave customs union and will operate its own trade policy after 2020
Q: Can you assure people there will be no extension to the customs arrangement with the EU after Brexit?
May says the UK will be leaving the customs union.
After that there will have to be customs arrangements in place.
She wants the UK to have as frictionless trade then as possible. She also wants to ensure there is no hard border in Ireland, and to ensure that the UK can have a trade policy.
From the end of 2020 the UK will be able to operate its own trade policy, she says.
- May says UK will leave customs union and will operate its own trade policy after 2020.
Asked about Hungary, corruption and security in the region, May singles out Russia for criticism. She says Russia has been intervening in a number of ways. We saw that in the chemical attack in Salisbury, she says.
She says it is important for countries to come together. That is why the support Macedonia showed after the Salisbury attack was so important, she says.
She says security came up in her talks today with the Macedonian PM.
May speaks about the UK’s links with Macedonia and says Macedonia is an integral part of Europe. She says relations between the two countries are closer than they have been for more than 20 years.
Theresa May's press conference
Theresa May is now holding a press conference in Macedonia.
These are from RTE’s Tony Connelly on the May/Varadkar bilateral in Sofia earlier. (See 10.36am and 11.10am.)
The Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and British PM Theresa May have had a 30 minute meeting in Sofia on the margins of the EU Western Balkans summit in Sofia. I’m told it was “useful but frank”.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Both sides set out their perspectives, no breakthrough on the backstop (but none was really expected). Taoiseach warned that time is running out. Hint that UK may bring forward proposals soon, but no info on what they will contain.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) May 17, 2018
Updated
Theresa May is now in Macedonia. She is due to give a short press conference at some point after 4pm UK time.
This is from HuffPost’s Paul Waugh.
Big news in Lab circles: Emilie Oldknow just appointed Assistant General Secretary & Chief Operating Officer of Unison
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 17, 2018
Oldknow was the Labour party’s executive director for governance, membership and party services, effectively the most senior official in the party after the general secretary, until she resigned earlier this year. She is married to Jon Ashworth, the shadow health secretary.
Dominic Cummings published a blog this week in which he explained his decision not to give evidence to the Commons culture committee. (See 1.36pm.) He said lawyers had told him to “keep my trap shut” until the Electoral Commission completes its investigation into Vote Leave this summer.
He said he had been willing to give evidence to the committee after this date, but the MPs’ decision to issue a formal summons via the media showed their priority was “grandstanding PR, not truth-seeking”.
Cummings said he believed select committees should have the legal power to compel witnesses to attend. However, since no such law was in place, he said, he would not now give evidence “under any circumstances”.
The committee system needed reforming to include “processes that push them towards truth-seeking behaviour rather than the usual trivialising grandstanding,” he said. “So far the inquiry on fake news has helped spread fake news across the world.”
Scotland got happier in 2017, but not rest of UK, says ONS
Readers sometimes complain that Politics Live, and especially all the news it contains about Brexit, makes them feel depressed. The excellent Bridget Christie even once included a joke to that effect, mentioning the blog (and auto-eroticism - don’t ask) in her Radio 4 comedy show.
But it turns out that, for the population as a whole, the last 12 months haven’t been so awful after all. The Office for National Statistics has today published its annual survey of wellbeing and it says that “average ratings of happiness and feeling that the things done in life are worthwhile have slightly increased in the UK”.
But the headline conclusion is misleading. Scotland is getting happier, and that is why the overall UK figures have nudged up a bit. In England, Wales and Northern Ireland we’re no happier.
Between the years ending December 2016 and 2017, improvements in worthwhile and happiness ratings in the UK were driven by Scotland, where average (mean) ratings also improved. Interestingly, average life satisfaction ratings also improved for Scotland; however, there were no significant changes for ratings of anxiety. No overall changes were reported for any measure of personal well-being in England, Wales or Northern Ireland.
Sadly, the ONS report doesn’t explain what was different about Scotland in 2017.
The ONS tracks wellbeing by surveying people and looking at four measures: Are you satisfied with your life? Are the things you do worthwhile? How happy are you? And how anxious are you?
Sturgeon rules out giving all Scottish prisoners right to vote
Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out giving all prison inmates in Scotland the right to vote, rejecting a recommendation from Holyrood’s equalities committee earlier this week.
Sturgeon was pressed to respond to its report at first minister’s questions on Thursday and hinted that she could back limited voting rights, which would not extend to those jailed for the “most serious and heinous crimes.”
Scottish National party, Labour and Lib Dem MSPs on the committee said extending the franchise to all prisoners, regardless of sentence, would improve rehabilitation rates and reinstill a sense of citizenship amongst inmates. Two Tory MSPs on the committee opposed them.
Sturgeon and the then first minister Alex Salmond had emphatically rejected calls for inmates to be given a vote in the 2014 independence referendum. Holyrood was subsequently given new powers over setting the rules for council, Holyrood and EU elections in 2016.
Sturgeon said she accepted that meant Holyrood had to decide how it would implement numerous European court rulings that the UK’s total ban on prisoners voting breached the convention on human rights (ECHR). She added, however:
I’m not of the view that this should lead to the enfranchising of all prisoners and I am, to say the least, sceptical that complying with the ECHR requires all prisoners to have the right to vote.
Holyrood’s deep divisions on this issue were highlighted when Murdo Fraser, a senior Scottish Tory, asked Sturgeon to agree John Muir, a victims campaigner whose son Damian was stabbed to death, who said it was an “obscenity” this was being considered.
Sturgeon sympathised, but John Finnie, a former SNP MSP and former policeman now with the Scottish Greens, told her Scotland should strive to match the progressive stance of Nordic countries which had substantial voting rights for prisoners.
Dominic Cummings faces being found guilty of 'contempt of parliament'
Dominic Cummings, campaign director for Vote Leave during the EU referendum campaign, is on course to be found guilty of a contempt of parliament. The Commons culture committee has been asking him to give evidence to its fake news inquiry, he has been saying no (or at least, not now), and today the committee has announced that it will report him to the Commons for contempt of parliament.
But Alexander Nix, the former Cambridge Analytica boss who was also refusing invitations to appear, has now, having been issued with a summons, agreed that he will appear before the committee, on Wednesday 6 June.
Damian Collins, the committee chair, said:
We are disappointed that Dominic Cummings has not responded positively to our requests for him to appear. His reasoning that he must delay giving evidence due to ongoing investigations simply does not hold up, considering that Alexander Nix, Jeff Silvester and others involved have agreed to cooperate with the committee’s investigations despite currently being subject to various investigations.
Reporting the matter to the House is a first step which could result in a decision that a contempt of parliament has been committed, a very serious outcome for the individual.
After the matter gets formally reported to the House, the committee of privileges has to investigate. If it decides Cummings is guilty of a contempt (and it is hard to see why it shouldn’t), it will get MPs to pass a motion censuring him. This happened two years ago when two former News International executives were found in contempt of parliament for misleading a committee.
Collins says being found guilty of contempt would be “a very serious outcome” for Cummings. On this point, he is probably wrong.
It was different in the past when people could get fined, or even imprisoned, for contempt. This is from a report (pdf) on the topic published six years ago.
The Houses’ power to punish non-members for contempt is untested in recent times. In theory, both Houses can summon a person to the bar of the House to reprimand them or order a person’s imprisonment. In addition, the House of Lords is regarded as possessing the power to fine non-members. The House of Commons last used its power to fine in 1666 and this power may since have lapsed.
In 1978 the House of Commons resolved to exercise its penal jurisdiction as sparingly as possible and only when satisfied that it was essential to do so in order to provide reasonable protection for the House, its members or its officers from improper obstruction or interference with the performance of their functions. Since that resolution, the Commons has not punished a nonmember. There is no equivalent resolution in the House of Lords, but the House has not punished a non-member since the nineteenth century.
The Commons has not locked anyone up for contempt since the 19th century and, even if the power still exists in theory, lawyers argue it would be hard to square with the Human Rights Act. It also has not summoned any non-MP to the bar of the Commons for a reprimand since this happened to the Sunday Express editor John Junor in 1957 - although, if this were to happen to Cummings, this would make a good scene when Benedict Cumberbatch plays him in the Brexit drama.
Being found guilty of contempt does have a reputational impact, and that is why Nix probably agreed to appear before the committee after being summoned, as did Rupert Murdoch seven years ago. But Murdoch and Nix are both business figures, operating in an environment where adherence with regulatory standards is seen as important. Cummings is best known as a political adviser famous for wanting to disrupt the establishment.
Cummings and “contempt of parliament”? It is not so much a punishment as a description of his mindset.
My colleague Jennifer Rankin says EU sources have their concerns about the UK government’s reported plan to effectively extend customs union membership.
EU sources cautious on pos Brexit customs union climbdown and unsurprisingly want to see proposals. One concern is that gov just playing for time and still pinning homes on customs p/ship ( aka "magical thinking") or max-fac ("less useful than a deodorant"). https://t.co/r2iV8cQDMZ
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) May 17, 2018
Brokenshire announces consultation on banning combustible cladding after Grenfell Tower fire
Here is my colleague Robert Booth’s story on the Judith Hackitt review of building regulations published this morning in response to the Grenfell Tower fire.
Hackitt did not recommend an outright ban on the use of combustible material for cladding.
But James Brokenshire, the housing secretary, who is making a statement on this to MPs now, has just said that the government will consult on banning combustible cladding.
Housing Secretary James Brokenshire announces consultation on banning dangerous cladding - not proposed by Dame Judith in her report on #GrenfellTowerFire https://t.co/L7qXelEusK
— BBC Parliament (@BBCParliament) May 17, 2018
But John Healey, the shadow housing secretary, said a consultation was not enough. The government should ban it now, he said.
Conservative MPs back prospects of effectively extending customs union membership if necessary
Here are two more Conservative MPs backing the idea of effectively extending customs union membership beyond the transition.
From Nick Boles, the former minister who voted remain
Not sure if this is what was agreed but it sounds like a sensible and pragmatic way forward. #brexitthatworks https://t.co/CRjzZQeb2o
— Nick Boles MP (@NickBoles) May 16, 2018
From Geoffrey Cox, who voted leave
This makes sense if accurate and we can live with it. Pragmatic compromise will be necessary to achieve the end we fought for. https://t.co/CXIFOr8jcc via @Telegraph
— Geoffrey Cox QC MP (@Geoffrey_Cox) May 16, 2018
More from Sky’s Faisal Islam on government customs policy.
Government policy stated at the Lancaster House speech last year by the PM was: “I do not want us to be bound by the Common External Tariff”... Asked if this is still policy, they’re getting back to me. pic.twitter.com/Trl946ZbU1
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 17, 2018
Perhaps one might argue there is a difference between *the* Common External tariff and *a* external tariff that is common (& temporary) and choosing out o free will to apply it and being “bound” by it...
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 17, 2018
Theresa May also had a meeting in Sofia this morning with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Emmanuel Macron, the French president. Over a rather nice breakfast, by the look of it.
Here is the readout Number 10 released afterwards. A spokesperson said:
In a trilateral meeting in the margins of the Western Balkans Summit in Sofia, Prime Minister Theresa May met with Chancellor Merkel and President Macron to discuss the decision by the US to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA).
The leaders reiterated their firm commitment to ensuring the deal is upheld, stressing it is important for our shared security. They pledged to work with the remaining parties to the deal to this end.
The leaders stressed that Iran must continue to meet its own obligations under the deal.
The leaders reiterated their concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its regional activities, which clearly contribute to the destabilisation of its neighbours. They restated their commitment to tackling these issues.
Photograph: Stoyan Nenov/Reuters
Stephen Hammond, the pro-European Conservative MP, and one of the 12 Tories who rebelled on the EU withdrawal bill in December, has said he would be in favour of effectively keeping the UK in the customs union beyond December 2020.
Always sceptical of newspaper stories BUT if headline in D Tel right, this would be a sensible move. UK plc needs to have certainty and protect jobs so being ‘ tied ‘ to Customs Union is a pragmatic solution
— Stephen Hammond MP (@S_Hammond) May 17, 2018
And Anna Soubry, another Tory pro-European who rebelled in December, posted this comment on Hammond’s tweet.
It also provides part of the solution to a hard border between #NIreland #Ireland #Brexit https://t.co/uS6WWtOBsE
— Anna Soubry MP (@Anna_Soubry) May 17, 2018
As Sky’s Faisal Islam points out, at the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister’s spokesperson did not entirely knock down the Telegraph/Politico Europe Brexit customs story. (See 9.24am.)
Number 10 repeatedly asked if the UK will be subject to the EU’s Common External Tarrif after end of transition period - answers repeatedly that we are leaving the Customs Union
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 17, 2018
Number 10 repeats the PM’s words that we will be free to implement trade deals after end 2020 - I pointed out that Turkey is free to implement trade deals at the moment, but those are constrained by the common tariff
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 17, 2018
And here’s a blog on the possibility of customs union membership being extended from the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg. And here’s an extract.
No 10 is strikingly adamant that their goal is making one of their plans work so that the backstop is not required and, importantly, the PM can avoid a huge hit to her political credibility.
She has said more times than I can remember that the UK is leaving the customs union and won’t be in “a” customs union.
For her to therefore argue overtly for an extension to the customs union is deeply unpalatable - and senior government figures suggest it just can’t happen.
However, given the political difficulties of reaching a compromise, as we’ve discussed for the last few weeks, it is the view of at least four cabinet ministers that extending the existing customs arrangements might be the only thing that breaks the deadlock.
Theresa May has held a meeting with Donald Tusk, president of the European council, and Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, at the EU meeting in Sofia this morning.
She also had a bilateral with her Irish opposite number Leo Varadkar.
In business questions the SNP’s Pete Wishart asked for an assurance that, when the EU withdrawal bill does come back to the Commons, the government would allow proper time for debate. He said he was worried that the government might try to minimise the number of votes by lumping various amendments together.
Leadsom said the government would allow “ample time” for debate when MPs considered the Lords amendments.
Updated
Leadsom refuses to tell MPs when EU withdrawal bill will return to Commons
In business questions in the Commons Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, announced the business for next week. There is time for consideration of Lords amendments on Tuesday and Wednesday, but she did not say whether the EU withdrawal bill will be debated in these slots.
The business for the week commencing 21 May will include: pic.twitter.com/EvXdsGoASx
— Leader's Office (@CommonsLeader) May 17, 2018
Valerie Vaz, the shadow leader of the Commons, asked for clarification. But Leadsom refused to say whether the EU withdrawal bill would be debated by MPs next week. Instead she all she said was that the bill would come back to the Commons “in due course” once the government had considered all the amendments passed in the Lords. She told MPs:
We will come forward with the return of the EU withdrawal bill once we’ve had the opportunity to fully consider and take into account the views expressed by the other place [the Lords], and to look at what that means in this place. We will bring those forward in due course.
Fifteen of those amendments were government defeats. The government has to decide if it is going to try to overturn all or just some of them. And, when the votes come, there will be a serious risk of defeat, because Tory rebels may line up with the opposition on some amendments.
Updated
Irish PM says without 'substantial progress' by June Brexit withdrawal agreement at risk
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, has said that without “real and substantial progress” in the Brexit talks by the time of the EU summit in June, there could be no withdrawal agreement. He told the Irish Times:
If we are not making real and substantial progress by June then we need to seriously question whether we’re going to have a withdrawal agreement at all. We stand by the text of the withdrawal agreement and the text of the protocol published in March as does the taskforce and the 27 member states that are behind us.
The withdrawal agreement is the one that is due to by agreed by October. The EU has already published a draft (pdf) of the treaty, and 75% of it is agreed, but important issues have yet to be resolved, particularly relating to the Irish border.
Updated
ITV’s political editor Robert Peston has written an interesting post on the Telegraph/Politico Europe customs union story (see 9.24am) on his Facebook page. Here’s an excerpt.
Now for the avoidance of doubt, although this is a significant victory for May over the arch Brexiters in her government, it solves very little of substance in respect of the passionate arguments over what Brexit should be in practice.
Remember this backstop is supposed to be a bridge from 2020 to whatever our permanent new customs arrangement with the EU will be. It is not a choice between NCP (being the EU’s tariff collector forever) or Max Fac (tech solutions to prevent border checks). That decision is yet to be made - though all my money is on Max Fac being the eventual choice.
But perhaps more importantly, I simply cannot see this backstop being deemed adequate by the EU27 unless it is accompanied by a pledge from the UK to maintain full alignment with the EU’s product and food standards for just as long as the backstop is needed (I should point out here that the PM retains a hope that all new customs systems could be in place by the end of 2020, and the backstop would then be academic - but few UK or EU officials agree with her).
Damian Green says he would back extending customs union membership if necessary
Damian Green, the former first secretary of state until his resignation in December, has used Twitter to say he would support staying in the customs union beyond December 2020 if extra time is needed to get new arrangements in place.
Surely the point about a new customs arrangement is that it needs to work smoothly from day one, or we will have chaos on the roads, especially in Kent. If that means a small delay, so be it.
— Damian Green (@DamianGreen) May 17, 2018
Green is MP for a Kent constituency, Ashford.
May denies U-turn amid reports UK could effectively stay in customs union after transition
Theresa May is in Sofia in Bulgaria this morning for an EU-Western Balkans summit and this morning she has dismissed (sort of) reports that the government is planning a post-Brexit customs compromise that would effectively keep the UK in the customs union after December 2020, when the transition period is due to end.
The Daily Telegraph has splashed on the story (paywall) and Politico Europe has got its own, very similar tale.
TELEGRAPH: May ‘outguns’ Brexiteers with Plan for customs ties after 2021 #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/v1sZ7j2YC1
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) May 16, 2018
Here’s an extract from the Telegraph story by Steven Swinford.
Britain will tell Brussels it is prepared to stay tied to the customs union beyond 2021 as ministers remain deadlocked over a future deal with the EU, the Telegraph has learned ...
Ministers signed off the plans on Tuesday despite objections from Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, and Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary. A pro-European cabinet source said that Mr Johnson and Mr Gove were “outgunned” during the meeting and reluctantly accepted the plans.
The Brexit sub-committee reached a consensus that Britain will stay aligned to the customs union if highly complex technology needed to operate borders after Brexit is not ready. Officials have warned it may not be in place until 2023.
Sources said that the new Irish “backstop” will be strictly “time-limited” and make clear that Britain will be free to implement trade deals.
And here is an extract from the Politico Europe story by Tom McTague and David Herszenhorn.
When is a customs union not a customs union? When it’s a “time-limited goods arrangement.”
With the Cabinet at odds over the U.K. government’s preferred option for a post-Brexit customs arrangement, officials are exploring a new option that could provide “a bridge” to a deal.
Instead of moving immediately to the eventual post-Brexit customs scheme at the end of the transition period on January 1, 2021, the U.K. could agree to temporarily remain inside the EU’s common external tariff until a future customs arrangement is ready, according to three senior officials involved in the Brexit negotiations from both the U.K. and EU.
May was asked about this in Sofia this morning. Asked if the UK was climbing down over leaving the customs union, she insisted it wasn’t. She said:
No we are not [climbing down]. The United Kingdom will be leaving the customs union, we are leaving the European Union.
Of course we will be negotiating future customs arrangements with the European Union and I have set three objectives, the government has three objectives in those.
We need to be able to have our own independent trade policy, we want as friction-less a border between the UK and the EU so that trade can continue and we want to ensure there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
You’ll notice that she did not deny the substance of the story at all - just the suggestion that it amounted to a policy reversal.
Other Tories may not be quite so sanguine about this. This is what Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group, the 60-strong group of Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, told the Telegraph.
The risk of the government using all its mental energy on the fallback position is that they create a position that is more attractive than a permanent deal.
We have gone from a clear end point, to an extension, to a proposed further extension with no end point. The horizon seems to be unreachable. The bottom of the rainbow seems to be unattainable. People voted to leave, they did not vote for a perpetual purgatory.
We’ll hear a lot more on this as the day goes on.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
9.30am: The government review of building regulations ordered after the Grenfell Tower fire will be published. As Robert Booth and Peter Walker report, it will not recommend an explicit ban on combustible cladding and insulation, despite persistent demands from Grenfell Tower survivors and fire safety experts.
9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes data on personal wellbeing.
Around 11.30am: Tracey Crouch, the culture minister, gives a Commons statement on the government’s decision, announced at 7am, to cut the maximum permitted stake on fixed-odds betting terminals (FOBTs) will be cut from £100 to £2.
Around 12.30pm: James Brokenshire, the housing secretary, gives a Commons statement on the buildings regulation review.
Afternoon: Theresa May is due to hold a press conference in Macedonia, which she is visiting after an EU summit in Bulgaria.
4.30pm: Fox gives an interview to LBC.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’ top 10 must reads.
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