That’s all from us tonight. I’ll leave you with this report from Heather Stewart, Jessica Elgot and Lisa O’Carroll on the prime minister’s warning that there is a strong possibility the UK will trade with the EU on WTO terms after 31 December.
From Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik
Are we just going to pick random countries now and call it a ‘insert country’ deal as opposed to what it really is - crashing out of the EU with a no deal that the country never prepared, nor can prepare for. https://t.co/jzHuzBllkr
— Nesrine Malik (@NesrineMalik) December 10, 2020
Updated
Here’s the video clip, in case you missed it earlier, where an oddly jovial Boris Johnson admits there’s a strong possibility the UK government will fail to broker a deal with the EU.
This is from Caroline Lucas
PM is taking us for fools. There is no such thing as an “Australia” deal - they don’t have a deal. And no amount of repeating it changes that
— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) December 10, 2020
This is a monumental “failure of statecraft” which Johnson himself admitted it would be.
An unforgivable act of self harm https://t.co/HkdWpv0IxK
“What Boris Johnson once described as a failure of statecraft now looms over Downing Street,” writes Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins. “No one in the Brexit camp can begin to explain why the lunacy of no deal is to anyone’s gain. Only Johnson can stop it, and stop it he must.”
Here are some extracts:
Throughout the negotiations, Britain’s team has misjudged the weakness of its position. All that was required was a continuation treaty for the UK to trade freely with its 27 neighbours, as it had done for 40 years. At stake was 43% of the UK’s total export trade; by contrast, according to 2016 figures, the UK accounts for only 16% of the EU’s exports market. It was never conceivable that the UK could dictate the terms of a treaty. The issue had nothing to do with democracy or sovereignty, only with the terms on which each side wished to do business.
The Conservatives politicised the negotiations at every turn. Constantly asserting that Britain would be better off doing deals with the rest of the world invited the EU to adopt a tougher position at the end of the game than at the start. Yet the prospect of a trade deal that could compensate for Britain’s lost trade with the EU was always illusory. Johnson often cites Canada’s deal with the EU, but Canada’s equivalent of the EU is the US.
Until the last minute, the only remaining trouble seemed to be over fish, where Britain’s fishing fleet has certainly been at a disadvantage. Both sides appeared close to reaching an agreement. But Britain has made this area an issue of principle, and duly invited retaliatory intransigence from France, which promises to veto any deal that sacrifices the demand for continued EU fishing access to British waters. This was inept.
The same obstinacy appears to have impeded progress on the tedious issue of a level playing field. That this should have become a deal-breaker makes me wonder if grown-up diplomats were ever at the table. Everyone has an interest in fair trade; a weakened Britain even more so than a strong Europe. If the UK wishes to continue trading as it does now, it’s obvious that it must accept a continuity of common standards. If competition is not fair, trading partners will not tolerate it.
Throughout the negotiations it has been difficult to tell what Johnson’s strategy is, other than extracting publicity from each turn of events. Negotiations were subject to a barrage of grandstanding from London, in addition to ministers’ bad faith assertions, since withdrawn, that they were willing to break international law over the Northern Ireland protocol. In the case of the level playing field, Johnson was reduced to demanding the “right” for the UK to subsidise export industries, undercutting cross-Channel competition. This was as diplomatically implausible as it was ideologically bizarre. A Tory should welcome a regulated free market, not seek freedom to corrupt one.
If no deal is reached by this Sunday, the cost to jobs and economic growth will be immense. Police will lose access to vital EU data. British farmers could be crippled with tariffs. Scientific cooperation will be impeded. Britons will find travel with the continent complicated and expensive. Healthcare abroad will no longer be free. According to one 2018 estimate, no deal would deliver the British economy a savage 7.7% loss of income over the next 10 years – now in addition to the costs of the pandemic. The clock of half a century of pan-European cooperation would be turned back decades.
Here is the full piece:
The Guardian view on Boris Johnson in Brussels? Not to be trusted, according to this editorial which calls this evening’s developments “a tragedy in the making for Britain”.
I thought it was worth posting here in full:
Boris Johnson got where he is today by telling lies about Europe. He made stories up as a journalist. He told fibs on an industrial scale in the referendum campaign. Now he is telling whoppers as prime minister too. There was an “oven-ready” EU trade deal. Not true. The chances of no deal were “absolutely zero”. Same again. Britain was prepared for any outcome after 31 December. Utterly false. The prospect of EU tariffs on British goods was “totally and utterly absurd”. Another porkie.
Mr Johnson was again having us on when he gave the impression that he was going to Brussels on Wednesday to get an EU withdrawal trade deal over the line. A good deal is there to be done, he told the Commons. But in the evening it was the very opposite. Mr Johnson arrived in Brussels to tell the EU that Britain was not ready to make a fisheries agreement, would never accept the European court of justice as the arbiter on future disputes, and could not agree to any form of agreement on trading standards that tied Britain’s hands to EU rules. The two sides now remain far apart, the Commons was told on Thursday.
A prime minister who wanted a deal to continue trading with this country’s largest market would not have said any of this. The fishing industry is not so large that its needs should prevent a wider agreement. There is no overriding reason of practice or principle why an arbitration system involving the ECJ cannot be devised. Most important of all, Britain ought to agree that some regulatory alignment with the single market to ensure a level playing field is overwhelmingly in its own economic interest.
The last of these is now the great stumbling block. Mr Johnson and his party affect a false naivety about it. They dress the issue up in terms of Britain’s supposedly inviolable sovereignty. By doing so, they refuse to accept that the enlightened sharing of sovereignty is involved in every trade deal that Britain or any other nation will ever strike and is fundamental to the working of international relations. And they play dumb when faced with the EU’s concerns about maintaining the single market and preventing Britain from setting itself up as a low regulation Singapore-on-Thames.
Mr Johnson pretends Britain wants no more than Canada or Australia would do. But Britain’s position in relation to the EU is radically different. Britain is on Europe’s doorstep. Our economy and commerce have been deeply integrated with the EU’s for 45 years. Neither of these is true of Canada or Australia. It is entirely right for the EU to make the granting of preferential trade access conditional on at least some form of continuing alignment on subsidies, tax, labour standards, competition rules and environmental safeguards.
Any other approach involves trusting Britain not to break its word. Why should the EU do that, especially in the wake of the UK’s internal market bill which, until this week, contained clauses that allow Britain to ignore international law and its own treaties? Proximity counts in trade. It would not be fair to allow UK companies to externalise their costs through lower regulation and then freely enter an EU market in which European businesses have to bear their true costs.
Moreover, why should a rules-based union like Europe trust Mr Johnson? Telling lies about Europe is one of the few consistent themes in his chaotic life and politics. It would be a foolish leap of faith to suppose he is going to change now. Politics and economics occasionally pull Mr Johnson in opposite directions on Europe. But in the end he mostly puts party politics ahead of the national economic interest. So it is again now. Because of him and his catastrophic cause of regaining some imaginary lost British greatness, this country now stands on the brink of rupture with Europe. There are only three weeks to go before it happens. It would be a desperate emergency for this country to face at the best of times. It is all the more tragic that it is happening when, amid the pandemic, it is so badly led and thus so ill-prepared to deal with it.
From the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar
Labour's Keir Starmer urges PM to deliver on his 'Get Brexit Done' promise & “get the deal”.
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) December 10, 2020
“Don’t underestimate the number of MPs from all parties who would be very let down & disappointed if this PM doesn’t deliver on the only meaningful promise he made at the last election.”
If your mind needed refreshing on what the “Australian option” actually means, we’ve got you.
Back in October, the Guardian’s Brussels bureau chief Daniel Boffey wrote:
Downing Street started using the term at the beginning of the year as a more palatable shorthand for a no-deal. The EU does not have a free-trade deal with Australia, although they are in negotiations. The two sides operate mainly on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, with huge tariffs on imports and exports.
It would be more accurate to describe the outcome that would be secured by a no-deal as an Afghanistan-style arrangement, given the lack of formal cooperation in that trading relationship. This is because the EU does have a few agreements in place with Australia that it would not have with the UK in the event of a failure of the trade and security negotiations. These include an agreement on the transfer of EU passenger name records to Australian border authorities to help combat crime and terrorism and an agreement on the mutual recognition of conformity assessments, so that a product tested to EU standards in Australia is regarded as compliant, eliminating the need for duplicative testing when it is imported.
The EU contingency proposals for no deal include for Europe’s fishing boats to continue having access to UK waters next year.
In response, the prime minister’s official spokesman said:
We would never accept arrangements and access to UK fishing waters which are incompatible with our status as an independent coastal state.
But he said the UK government would “look closely” at the mini-deals proposed by the EU if there is no overall agreement.
The EU’s leaders were being updated by Ursula von der Leyen on the state of play during the summit in Brussels.
The fact that negotiators Lord Frost and Michel Barnier were meeting again on Thursday at least gave some cause for hope.
Ireland’s taoiseach, Micheal Martin, said an agreement is “within reach”. As he arrived for the summit he said:
I didn’t expect a breakthrough last evening. I think the fact that they met for quite a lengthy period of time and that frank exchange of views in itself is a good thing, and the fact that the negotiators are mandated to go back in again and try to break the logjam.
The UK has not ruled out the prospect of talks continuing beyond Sunday, but ministers stressed the need for “finality” in the process.
The foreign secretary Dominic Raab said it is “unlikely” that talks will continue after that deadline, but added: “I can’t categorically exclude it”.
Negotiations have faltered over fishing rights, the level playing field - measures aimed at preventing the UK undercutting the EU on standards and state subsidies - and the way that any deal would be governed.
The Office for Budget Responsibility financial watchdog has suggested that a no-deal outcome could wipe 2% off gross domestic product - a measure of the size of the economy - in 2021, which experts have indicated could be around £45bn.
As stock markets in Europe closed the pound was down 1.18% against the euro and down 0.84% against the dollar, with traders nervous as time for a deal to be agreed slipped away.
Now seems as good a time as any to crack out this report from June 2019 when the then Tory leadership frontrunner, one Boris Johnson, claimed the odds of a no-deal Brexit were “a million-to-one against”.
At the time, he said:
It is absolutely vital that we prepare for a no-deal Brexit if we are going to get a deal. But I don’t think that is where we are going to end up – I think it is a million-to-one against – but it is vital that we prepare.
A timely reminder from HuffPost UK’s Graeme Demianyk
How it started How it’s going pic.twitter.com/6JR99pMD2x
— Graeme Demianyk (@GraemeDemianyk) December 10, 2020
Updated
The prime minister’s warning of a “strong possibility” of no deal came after his dinner with the European commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Wednesday failed to produce a breakthrough.
As the negotiators resumed talks, von der Leyen set out no-deal plans for emergency legal agreements to keep planes flying to the UK and lorries crossing Europe.
The two leaders agreed that a decision on the future of the negotiations will be taken by the end of the weekend.
On Thursday, von der Leyen said at a summit of EU leaders that negotiations are “difficult”.
In his first interview since the dinner, Johnson said the UK will do “everything we possibly can” to get a deal when asked if it would be a failure of politics not to strike one.
He said he would be willing to return to Brussels, or head to Paris or Berlin to get a deal over the line, in a clear reference to the French president Emmanuel Macron and the German chancellor Angela Merkel, who are seen as two figures adamant not to cave to British demands.
“We’re not stopping talks, we’ll continue to negotiate, but looking at where we are I do think it’s vital that everyone now gets ready for that Australian option,” Johnson added.
“At the moment, I have to tell you in all candour that the treaty is not there yet and that is the strong view of our Cabinet as well.”
“If at first you don’t succeed you can try and try. But eventually, sometimes, failure is what follows,” writes the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg.
She writes:
Both sides want to stick to their principles. But that determination right now has set them on the path to the practical outcome they both wanted to avoid - and, if nothing changes, the chance of significant disruption at least in the short term for the country in many different ways.
And for both sides, failing to agree would be a real political accident - something they don’t want, and that didn’t have to happen.
But unless one side, or more likely both, are willing to give up some of their principles very fast, or the negotiators come up with a sudden miracle, then for all his optimism, Boris Johnson may fail to achieve the trade deal that Brexiteers boasted would be easy.
A result that he always said he would be ready for, but no doubt what he wanted to avert.
Read the full piece here.
Here is a clip the prime minister has posted on Twitter where he said there was a strong possibility of an Australian-style relationship with the EU after 31 December, i.e. no deal.
Now is the time for the public and businesses to get ready for the Australian option on January 1st. pic.twitter.com/lLJfmIy9XI
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 10, 2020
In case you’re just joining us, the prime minister Boris Johnson has warned there is a “strong possibility” that the UK will fail to broker a trade deal with the EU as he urged the public to prepare for the end of the Brexit transition period.
Johnson said the “deal on the table is really not at the moment right”, saying it would leave the UK vulnerable to sanctions or tariffs if it did not follow the bloc’s new laws.
He said the current proposals would keep the nation “kind of locked in the EU’s orbit”, but insisted negotiators would “go the extra mile” to get a treaty in time for 31 December.
But Johnson said he told his cabinet on Thursday evening to “get on and make those preparations” for a departure without a deal in place, or in an “Australian relationship” as he puts it.
He said in an interview:
I do think we need to be very, very clear, there is now a strong possibility - a strong possibility - that we will have a solution that is much more like an Australian relationship with the EU than a Canadian relationship with the EU.
That doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing, there are plenty of ways that we can turn that to the advantage of both sides in the conversation.
But yes, now is the time for the public and businesses to get ready for January 1, because believe me there’s going to be change either way.
Here is our report from the Guardian’s political editor, Heather Stewart, detailing the prime minister’s description of the EU’s offer as unacceptable and his ordering of his cabinet to prepare for a no-deal Brexit:
Asked if a no-deal scenario would be a “failure of politics and diplomacy”, Johnson replied:
The UK will continue to do everything we possibly can.
I stand ready to talk to anybody, our friends and partners in the EU, whenever they want.
At the moment, I have to tell you in all candour that the treaty is not there yet and that is the strong view of our Cabinet as well.
The other sticking point on which his cabinet agreed, Johnson added, is fishing:
The prime minister said:
Second thing, obviously, is fisheries.
After many years now of voting to leave the EU we wouldn’t still have control of our waters and that’s no good. And so the Cabinet agreed very strongly with it that we’re really not there yet at all.
He said negotiations would continue in order to try to reach a deal but that he believes the UK could prosper on Australian terms, which his cabinet is now preparing for.
Johnson said:
What I’ve said to our negotiators is that we’ve got to keep going, and we’ll go the extra mile - and we will. And I will go to Brussels, I will go to Paris, I will go to Berlin, I will go to wherever to try and get this home and get a deal.
There’s always the possibility, the prospect of coming out on Australia terms, which I believe are very good terms and we can prosper mightily in that future which is just around the corner. And there are all sorts of amazing opportunities for this country.
So what I told the Cabinet this evening is to get on and make those preparations. We’re not stopping talks, we’ll continue to negotiate but looking at where we are I do think it’s vital that everyone now gets ready for that Australian option.
Updated
Johnson went on to say his cabinet is in agreement that “the deal on the table is really not at the moment right fo the UK”, namely due to the idea of “equivalence” - where the UK would have to follow EU laws “or else face punishment, sanctions, tariffs, or whatever”.
He said:
I’ve just updated Cabinet on where we’ve got to with our friends and partners in the EU and they agreed very strongly with me that the deal on the table is really not at the moment right for the UK.
And I’ll tell you why, there’s a couple of things at least, the most important is really in just the last couple of weeks, they’ve brought back the idea of this equivalence between the UK and the EU which basically means that whatever new laws they brought in we would have to follow or else face punishment, sanctions, tariffs or whatever.
And it was put to me that this was kind of a bit like twins and the UK is one twin the EU is another and if the EU decides to have a haircut then the UK is going to have a haircut or else face punishment.
Or if the EU decides to buy an expensive handbag then the UK has to buy an expensive handbag too or else face tariffs... Clearly that is not the sensible way to proceed and it’s unlike any other free trade deal. It’s a way of keeping the UK kind of locked in the EU’s orbit - in their regulatory orbit.
As we’ve just reported, the prime minister Boris Johnson has just said the public and businesses should prepare for 1 January, warning that there would be “change either way”.
I do think we need to be very very clear, there is now a strong possibility - a strong possibility - that we will have a solution that is much more like an Australian relationship with the EU than a Canadian relationship with the EU.
That doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing, there are plenty of ways that we can turn that to the advantage of both sides in the conversation.
There are plenty of opportunities for the UK.
But yes, now is the time for the public and businesses to get ready for January 1, because believe me there’s going to be change either way.
There will be change whether there’s a Canada-style deal or an Australia-style deal.
“The UK has been incredibly flexible,” Johnson said in an interview from Downing Street. “We tried very hard to make progress on all sorts of things.” But he warned the UK should be prepare for an Australian-style “option”, which would come into effect on 1 January 2021.
'Strong possibility' of no trade deal with EU, says Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson says there is a “strong possibility” the UK will not reach a post-Brexit trade agreement with the EU.
The PM said businesses and the public should now prepare for that outcome, although his team would continue talks with the EU. But he cautioned negotiations were “not yet there at all”.
It comes after his meeting on Wednesday with the president of the EU Commission failed to reach a breakthrough.
Early evening summary
- Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has raised the prospect of London and Essex being included in the toughest tier 3 restrictions next week. Speaking at the No 10 press conference he said he was particularly concerned about the rising Covid cases in London, Essex and Kent (which is already in tier 3). The problem was particularly acute in secondary school age pupils, he said, and he announced that mass testing would be introduced for pupils in the worst-affected areas of London, Kent and Essex. He said:
I’m particularly concerned about the number of cases in London, Kent and Essex. Cases are rising and in many areas are already high. Looking into the detail, the testing results and survey shows us that by far the fastest rise is among secondary school age children 11-18 years old, while the rate among adults in London is broadly flat. But we know from experience that a sharp rise in case in younger people can lead to a rise among more vulnerable age groups later.
We need to do everything we can to stop the spread among school age children in London right now - we must not wait until the review, which will take place on December 16. We need to take targeted action immediately.
Mobile testing units will be used, and further details will be set out tomorrow. Hancock also confirmed that the government would review the current tiering decisions for England next Wednesday. Earlier some London MPs who were briefed by the health department on the situation in the capital concluded that it was moving into tier 3. This is from the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar.
🚨London MP on call with Health Minister tells me: "It feels like they’re preparing us for Tier 3 decision. Decision taken on 16th, published on 17th & implemented on 19th. Data pointing that way..."
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) December 10, 2020
-
The EU has offered to keep planes, coaches and freight operating across Europe for six months after a no-deal exit – if the government agrees to maintain a “level playing field” in standards, the issue that has dogged the trade and security talks. Downing Street has refused to commit to the EU contingency plans for no deal, which also include a proposal for EU boats to continue to have access to British fishing waters from January. (See 10.38am and 1.04pm.)
- The UK has signed a free trade deal with Singapore covering trade worth £17.6bn, the international trade secretary, Liz Truss, has said. The agreement largely replicates an existing EU-Singapore pact.
That’s all from me for today.
But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Quarantine rules to apply to arrivals from Canary Islands, Shapps announces
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has announced that the Canary Islands have been removed from the travel corridor list - which means quarantine rules will apply to arrivals from there from the weekend.
Data indicates weekly cases and positive tests are increasing in the CANARY ISLANDS and so we are REMOVING them from the #TravelCorridor list to reduce the risk of importing COVID-19. From 4am Sat 12 Dec, if you arrive from these islands you WILL need to self-isolate.
— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) December 10, 2020
But Botswana and Saudia Arabia have been added to the travel corridor list - meaning quarantine rules no longer apply.
BOTSWANA and SAUDI ARABIA have been ADDED to the #TravelCorridor list. If you arrive from these places after 4am Sat 12 Dec you do NOT need to self-isolate.
— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) December 10, 2020
Q: Will you reopen the Nightingale hospital in London at the ExCel centre?
Powis says the Nightingale hospitals have been an insurance policy. In the spring the ExCel Nightingale hospital was used. The ones in the north were stood up again recently, and the one in Manchester has been used.
In London the NHS is under pressure. But we are not at the levels seen in April, and at the moment we can manage.
The first response is “mutual aid”. Hospitals help each other out, he says.
But he says use of the Nightingale hospital continues to be kept under review.
Q: What would be the point of putting London in tier 3 in the light of the damage to the hospitality sector?
Hancock says he understands how much damage restrictions are causing to the hospitality sector.
Updated
Q: It seems that after 1 January Britons are to be banned from travelling to Europe under Covid restrictions. Will the UK retaliate?
Hancock says any policy on public health restrictions will be taken on the basis of public health advice.
Q: Your former neighbour got a contract to provide equipment to the NHS. Did you discuss this with him?
Hancock says he read about that story in the Guardian. He had nothing to do with that contract, he says. He says he is very grateful to everyone who came forward and offered to help supply the NHS with the equipment it needed.
Q: Do you agree the recommendations of the Ockenden report need to be acted on immediately?
Yes, says Hancock. He says it makes “shocking reading”.
Powis says the NHS will be acting on these recommendations.
Q: Isn’t a third wave inevitable? And if it is, shouldn’t we act now, instead of waiting until next week?
Hancock says the government is doing all it can to keep the case rates down, including rolling out community testing. That is why mobile testing units will work with schools. He says north-east London is a particular problem.
That can help, he says, but only as part of an overall package.
He says the decisions on tiering will depend on how people respond and how they behave.
Whitty says a third wave is not inevitable.
Q: Will the school testing programme make a difference?
Hancock says PCR tests will be primarily used in London, but later flow tests (the rapid result ones) will also be used too.
He says later flow tests don’t have to be sent off to a laboratory. But PCR tests pick up more cases, he says.
Whitty says a testing programme is a useful addition to other measures. But on its own it won’t turn around the figures. He says the right people have to come forward. And then people have to self-isolate if told to. He says that can pull people out of the symptoms. It is particularly valuable with people who do not have symptoms, he says. It can help “break a chain of transmission”.
Hancock says rising case numbers in London and Essex 'worrying', and tier review coming next week
Q: How likely is it that London and Essex will move into tier 3?
Hancock says the government will consider the data next Wednesday.
He says he does not want to pre-empt that decision.
But they look at the data daily. The rise in case numbers is “worrying”, he says.
Whitty says: “Of course we’re concerned.”
This is the time of year when rates go up for respiratory illnesses, he says.
In the north and in the Midlands people have done a remarkable job at bringing rates down, he says.
But in parts of London, north-east London in particular, and parts of Essex and Kent, rates have not been falling.
He says this is a “concerning picture”.
From the Press Association’s Ian Jones
The way Test and Trace counts the proportion of contacts reached has now been changed twice in as many weeks.
— Ian Jones (@ian_a_jones) December 10, 2020
Matt Hancock described these changes as "improvements". pic.twitter.com/WoWQxnrtXR
Q: Will we be able to spend time with loved ones at new year?
Yes, but only if you live with them, says Hancock.
He says it is vital to continue following the restrictions now.
There is a specific set of rules for Christmas, but not for new year.
Whitty says restrictions will have to apply until the number of cases has been reduced to a level where the government is comfortable with the risk.
This is a point he made in evidence to MPs yesterday.
Hancock says community testing is being deployed now in 100 council areas.
NHS test and trace is now reaching 86% of contacts, he says.
And he says from today people told to self-isolate through the Covid app will be able to get the £500 payment if they qualify.
He also says the government has today announced hospital upgrade projects funded by a £600m investment package.
Hancock says mass testing being deployed in secondary schools in parts of London, Kent and Essex with highest Covid rates
Hancock says he is particularly concerned about the rise in the number of cases in London, Kent and Essex.
He says by far the biggest rise is in secondary school children, aged 11 to 18.
We know from experience that a sharp rise in cases in younger people can lead to a rise amongst more vulnerable age groups later. We’ve seen that happen before. So we need to do everything we can to stop the spread amongst school age children in London.
He says that, to tackle this, the government will immediately roll out mass testing for secondary school pupils in the seven boroughs in London with the highest Covid rates, as well as in parts of Essex and Kent.
Updated
Hancock says the NHS is vaccinating people in 73 hospitals. It will soon expand to 10 more location, and from next week GPs will start vaccinating people at some sites.
And vaccinations will start in care homes by Christmas, he says.
Hancock starts with the latest Covid figures.
He says the rolling average for new cases is now 16,236 per day. It has risen in the last week, he says.
Today there are 15,242 people in hospital, he says. He says that is slightly down on the previous week.
And there have been 516 further deaths.
In some parts of England cases are rising, he says, citing Kent, Essex and parts of London.
Matt Hancock's press conference
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, will be taking the Downing Street press conference at 5pm. He will be joined by Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Prof Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England.
Until now I have mostly been avoiding UK coronavirus news here, because there has been more than enough Brexit to cover. Instead we’ve been doing the UK Covid developments on our global live blog. It’s here
Here is my colleague Daniel Boffey’s guide to the EU contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit from 1 January.
Updated
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
As discussed earlier (see 12.27pm), Conservative MPs have been reluctant to express doubts in public about Boris Johnson’s EU negotiating strategy, and about the wisdom leaving the post-Brexit transition without a trade deal. Only a few have done so - and even then, only in relatively muted terms.
But Tom Newton Dunn from Times Radio says that in private ministers are more nervous.
Will Tory MPs allow Boris Johnson to execute a No Deal? Publicly, support prevails. Privately, nerves are creeping in, within the Cabinet too. One senior minister tells me: "I am feeling like I did before the Scottish Referendum in 2014, a bit queasy". More on @TimesRadio now.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) December 10, 2020
The Department for Transport has temporarily relaxed enforcement of EU drivers’ hours rules in England, Scotland and Wales, as concerns mount that Christmas could be ruined by coronavirus disruption and stockpiling before Brexit.
The move follows port congestion holding up crucial deliveries, including building supplies, and coronavirus-related restrictions on supply chains, at a time when the UK’s ability to process freight goods has alarmed ministers in the run-up to Brexit.
The temporary relaxation will apply from midnight 10 December until 30 December 2020.
The rules apply to anyone driving within the UK under the EU drivers’ hours rules involved in the transport of food and essential goods, such as vaccines, from ports within Great Britain. They will be free to work longer hours than normal European Union safety rules permit.
The rules also apply to food and other essential goods being delivered to distribution centres and to stores, and from manufacturers or suppliers to stores. It does not apply to drivers undertaking deliveries to consumers.
While the Department for Transport states driver safety “must not be compromised” and that an agreement must be in place between drivers and their respective employer, concerns have been raised over increased levels of fatigue in lorry drivers.
Unite national officer for road haulage Adrian Jones said:
Lorry drivers are being forced to pay for the mismanagement of others. Relaxing driving hours increases fatigue, which increases the risk of accidents for the drivers themselves and all other road users.
Relaxing driver hours will result in increased levels of fatigue, which is especially dangerous in poor weather that frequently occurs during the winter months.
Updated
Back at the public administration committee, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, says the government wants to devolve power in England. And he claims there is support for this policy in the Conservative party.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government is currently working on a white paper on devolution, he says.
He suggests the government will propose different approaches for different areas.
The appropriate thing is to recognise that what is right for London might be slightly different from what is right for Greater Manchester, and that will certainly be different from what is right for Devon or for Surrey.
And that’s it. The hearing is over.
Updated
This is from Lord Ricketts, the former head of the Foreign Office, on the UK-EU trade negotiation standoff.
In most big negotiations, the last 5% which can’t be agreed in legal text is handled in ‘politically binding’ side letters. Problem is that the EU no longer trust the UK to keep its word. So they insist on nailing it all down in treaty text. Problem of UK’s making. https://t.co/9twDkahT33
— Peter Ricketts (@LordRickettsP) December 10, 2020
Updated
In the Commons MPs have again been debating the internal market bill. They have resolved their dispute with the House of Lords over the clauses that would have allowed the government to break international law (because they have been dropped), but the two houses are still at loggerheads over amendments that beef up protections for the devolved administrations in the bill. Yesterday peers voted to reinsert those elements into the bill, after MPs took them out on Monday. This afternoon MPs have voted to take them out again.
MPs voted 356 to 259 – a majority of 97 – to reject three Lords amendments linked to calls to give the devolved administrations a key role in the future operation of the UK internal market post-Brexit.
Referring to the amendments, Paul Scully, the business minister, said:
While these new amendments would clarify the interaction between divergence agreed under common frameworks and the market access principles, they would still potentially undermine the certainty that the market access principles are designed to provide for business, because of the possibility of differing interpretations of what is permitted under an agreement.
Responding for Labour, Ed Miliband, the shadow business secretary, said:
I do say to the minister, this is absolutely critical in the kind of country we want to build post-Brexit. We want a functioning UK internal market, but we believe this can be achieved in a way that upholds high standards and allows devolved government to both have a voice in setting those standards and make choices in devolved areas appropriate for each nation.
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Back in the public administration committee, Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Lab) asked Michael Gove about the impact that Dominic Cummings, until recently the PM’s most senior adviser, had on the civil service reform agenda. Cummings was perceived as a threat to civil servants, and reportedly threatened them with a “hard rain”.
Gove, who employed Cummings as an adviser when he was education secretary, said Cummings was more critical of politicians than civil servants. Cummings may not have been “everyone’s cup of tea”, but he had a good relationship with lots of civil servants, Gove said. Gove also said that “an awful lot of nonsense” had been written about Cummings and that he personally was a fan of the former adviser.
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UK and EU officials close to the trade talks now think no deal is the most likely outcome, Bloomberg reports.
SCOOP: We are heading for a no-deal Brexit in three weeks, officials on both sides now believe. With @AlbertoNardelli and @IanWishart https://t.co/1KG1J4FuLc via @business
— Tim Ross (@TimRoss_1) December 10, 2020
Others share this assessment. This is from ITV’s political editor Robert Peston.
As I said on #peston and @itvnews News at Ten last night, I can't see the "landing zone" that delivers a free trade deal between UK and EU. Talking to both sides, it is clear that the gap on the level playing field is ideological, not pragmatic. No deal is overwhelmingly likely
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 10, 2020
This is from Fabian Zuleeg, head of the European Policy Centre thinktank in Brussels.
Talking with both EU & UK, & observing how the negotiations are reflected in public discourse, on the core remaining issues there is no intersection in the Venn diagramme, i.e. no landing zone for a deal. Of course, this could change but time is running out (has run out?)
— Fabian Zuleeg (@FabianZuleeg) December 10, 2020
And this is from Mujtaba Rahman, the Brexit specialist at the Eurasia consultancy.
Whether the UK & EU reach a deal now essentially hangs on a dispute over the conditions the EU is setting the UK to enter its market - & how the Govt views those conditions
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) December 10, 2020
This is a clash of ideology - NOT economics; v unclear @BorisJohnson can or will agree
At the public administration committee, Tom Randall (Con) asks Michael Gove if he is happy about the way the government awarded contracts for communication services in the early phase of the pandemic. There have been cases of contracts being awarded to firms with Tory links without them going out to tender.
Gove says the government recently published a report from Nigel Boardman, a non-executive director at the Department for Business, who was asked to look into this. Gove says that in the circumstances the government had to act quickly, but that there is always room for improvement.
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Shoppers will pay the price if the UK government does not secure a zero-tariff agreement with the EU, the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) has warned. David Lonsdale, its director, said:
Without a trade deal there is little retailers can do to insulate consumers from the impact of £3bn of new tariffs on food in our supermarkets and grocery stores, as four-fifths of UK food imports come from the EU.
Moreover, new checks and red tape that will apply from January 1 will create additional headaches in the supply of many goods that come from or through the EU.
The UK government must strain every sinew to agree a zero-tariff agreement, or else it will be Scottish shoppers who pay the price.
At the public administration committee, Navendu Mishra (Lab) asks Michael Gove if it’s true that the Cabinet Office operates a clearing house that vets how the government responds to freedom of information requests.
That’s a reference to this investigation by openDemocracy.
Gove says there has been some “highly colourful” reporting around this. He goes on:
The idea that there is a secret clearing house, or any sort of blacklist, is, I’m afraid, not correct.
He says the Cabinet Office coordinates replies to freedom of information requests to ensure there is a consistent government response.
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The CBI business organisation has said political leadership is now needed “more than ever” to avoid the UK and the EU failing to agree a trade deal. Josh Hardie, the CBI’s deputy director general, said:
Getting a deal is vital to protect businesses, jobs and living standards across Europe already under strain from the pandemic.
Progress relies on political leadership, which is needed now more than ever to avoid a costly, damaging and divisive no-deal scenario.
While talks continue, practical planning must intensify to minimise disruption, no matter what the outcome on Sunday.
Steps have been taken on both sides but much more needs to be done.
For goods, this means committing to a grace period for rules of origin, relabelling products and phasing border checks. On services, data adequacy and financial equivalence must materialise to protect businesses and their customers.
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Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, has just started giving evidence to the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee. There is a live feed at the top of the blog. It is going to be a wide-ranging hearing, covering the work of the Cabinet Office generally. I won’t be covering it in full, but I will be monitoring it for highlights, particularly related to Brexit.
Liverpool mayor Joe Anderson to 'step away' from role following his arrest in fraud investigation
Joe Anderson, the Labour mayor of Liverpool, has announced he will step aside from his role following his arrest last week by detectives investigating allegations of bribery and witness intimidation linked to building deals in the city. Wendy Simon, the deputy mayor, will take over until the police investigation concludes. Anderson said at that point he would make a further announcement about his political future.
In a statement, he said:
I have always done what I believe is best for the city, and I am taking the following action with those best intentions in mind.
It is important that everyone in Liverpool knows that our leaders are focused on what is most important to the people; their livelihoods and, with a pandemic still in force, their lives.
For this reason, I believe it is important that the city, and government, are reassured that our city is indeed operating in the correct way.
I am, therefore, stepping away from decision-making within the council through a period of unpaid leave, until the police make clear their intentions with the investigation on the 31st December.
I will make a further statement at that point. Wendy Simon will be acting as mayor and I have all faith that she will provide the leadership our city requires at this time.
Anderson also said he wanted to focus for the time being on clearing his name. He said:
The arrest on Friday has also been a painful shock for me and my family, following a difficult few months. I need to focus on their future and returning to a normal they can recognise, with the reassurance that I am no longer under suspicion.
Therefore I am going to focus on cooperating with the police in their ongoing inquiry, as I believe time will make it clear that I have no case to answer.
This situation has not dampened my passion for our city and the inspiring people who live and work here, most particularly the dedicated public servants who work within the council and the cabinet. They will continue their incredible work, as we would expect, against the challenging circumstances we find ourselves in.
But I am not prepared to contribute my own circumstances to those challenges, so I have reached this decision for that reason alone.
I am very grateful for the many messages of support I have received and I have faith that, as always, the future of our city is bright and its best days are ahead.
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On the World at One Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative former foreign secretary who now chairs the health committee, has just said that failing to agree a trade deal with the EU would be a failure of statecraft. When he was foreign secretary, he warned that no deal could happen by accident, he said. But at the point his line went down, and the interview ended.
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Steve Peers, a professor of EU law, has a useful Twitter thread summing up the EU’s no-deal contingency plans published today. It starts here.
EU 'no deal' unilateral contingency measures published - to deal with aviation, air safety, road haulage, fisheries
— Steve Peers (@StevePeers) December 10, 2020
press release - https://t.co/wbkPV9yO30
legal texts - https://t.co/0uYtt2ly5h
And this is what he says about the EU proposal for fisheries.
Fisheries: proposal is probably fanfic on EU side. Add it to the piles of Brexity and Remainer fanfic in the UK. pic.twitter.com/A9rLXfA7fs
— Steve Peers (@StevePeers) December 10, 2020
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Scotland’s Covid death toll has now passed 4,000 according to the daily measure, Nicola Sturgeon confirmed before FMQs today, but the session was dominated by the ongoing Salmond inquiry.
The Scottish Tories’ Holyrood leader, Ruth Davidson, was relentless in her questioning of Sturgeon over contradictions between evidence she herself has put forward and the oral evidence her husband, Peter Murrell, the chief executive of the SNP, gave on Tuesday about her meetings with Salmond to discuss allegations of sexual harassment.
Pressing Sturgeon on why Murrell said the meetings were a Scottish government matter whilst she has characterised them as a party/personal matter, Davidson accused the first minister of believing the public’s “head buttons up the back”.
Sturgeon accused Davidson of “using my husband as a weapon against me” and that she regularly dealt with confidential matters: “I am the first minister of the country not the office gossip.”
Meanwhile, the Scottish Labour leader, Richard Leonard, attacked Sturgeon’s decision to keep Edinburgh in level 3, with severe restrictions on hospitality businesses. Later today, Edinburgh city council will debate an emergency motion put forward by its own SNP leader.
Leonard said that the decision – which, according to the council, went against the advice of local public health officials - showed a lack of transparency and risked compliance. Sturgeon accused Leonard of irresponsibility, saying that case numbers and test positivity was rising in Edinburgh and that there was a “real risk that the situation ... very seriously runs out of control” if restrictions were relaxed now.
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No 10 refuses to say whether conditions attached to EU's no-deal contingency plans acceptable
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. Here are the main points.
- Downing Street has refused to commit to agreeing to the no deal contingency plans published by the European commission this morning. (See 10.38am.) The plans would involve the EU continuing to have access to UK waters for fishing and road freight access to the EU continuing as now, provided the UK accept fair competition rules. Asked if the UK could agree to these plans, the prime minister’s spokesman just said that the UK would be studying the proposals and that it had its own no deal contingency plans. But he stressed that the UK was committed to taking back control of its waters from next year. He said:
I think as we’ve said throughout the negotiations, once we leave the end of the transition period, we will take back control of our waters. We would never accept arrangements and access to UK fishing waters which are incompatible with our status as an independent coastal state.
(Being an independent coastal state does not mean never allowing EU boats access to UK waters. It is about maintaining control over what access is allowed.)
- The spokesman said that Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen would reach a “firm decision” together by Sunday about whether talks on the trade deal should continue. But he did not give details of how this would happen, and whether they would meet again, or just talk on the phone.
- The spokesman said that Lord Frost and Michel Barnier, the UK and EU chief negotiators, would resume talks in Brussels this afternoon.
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From Sky’s Adam Parsons
BREAKING: European Council programme has been adapted after the Johnson/VdL dinner. Leaders will now discuss Brexit this evening, as first item during their dinner.
— Adam Parsons (@adamparsons) December 10, 2020
Originally Brexit and the trade talks were not on the agenda for the summit.
The Road Haulage Association gave a guarded welcome to the EU proposal for a six-month easement for road connectivity as part of its no-deal contingency planning. (See 10.38am.)
It was granted fewer than 2,000 ECMT (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) driver permits in the annual lottery for third country hauliers driving into the EU, a fraction of the 10,000 it needed.
Under EU rules drivers can currently drive into the bloc picking up and delivering across a multiple of countries, but from 1 January the ECMT permit is mandatory for full and empty trucks.
Rod McKenzie, director of policy at the RHA, said:
As it stands there are 8,000 UK haulage companies who are very worried they don’t have this driver passport, we have told them not to panic until we get more details from this Ursula von der Leyen announcement but it is a safe bet that it means we won’t need them for the first six months of next year in the event of no deal.
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Matt Hancock, the health secretary, will hold a press conference in No 10 at 5pm today. He will be joined by Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Prof Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England.
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Micheál Martin, the Irish taoiseach, has said he still thinks a UK-EU trade deal is “within reach”. Speaking on his arrival at the EU summit, Martin said:
It makes sense to get a trade deal. I’m very aware of the difficulties around a level playing field, the dispute resolution mechanism and fisheries.
I didn’t expect a breakthrough last evening. I think the fact that they met for quite a lengthy period of time and that frank exchange of views in itself is a good thing, and the fact that the negotiators are mandated to go back in again and try to break the logjam.
Dialogue is key and both teams have given themselves a deadline of this Sunday, and I think the key to unlocking this is to stand back and look at the overall picture here.
97% of this is agreed. Are we saying we are going to lose out on a deal because of 3%? Notwithstanding the significance of the issues.
The bottom line is a lot of work has been done, a lot of agreement has been reached, so one final effort is required.
There will, obviously, be the need for a compromise at the end of the day.
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In the last parliament many Conservative MPs were willing to speak out about the dangers of no deal. Twenty one of them even lost the party whip because they rebelled to try to prevent no deal. After the election the nature of the parliamentary party changed considerably, and no one in Boris Johnson’s party has been publicly denouncing the prospect of no deal (not least because Johnson arguably has an electoral mandate for his strategy).
But some Conservative MPs have started to issue warnings. This Evening Standard story quotes Tom Tugendhat, Tobias Ellwood, Damian Green and Andrew Mitchell all, to varying degrees, expressing concerns about no deal.
And this is what Charles Michel, the European council president, said about Brexit when he arrived at the EU summit. He said:
On Brexit, negotiations are still ongoing. We trust the commission - we will have a short debrief from the commission. We will not have a long debate on Brexit and we will defend our European interests.
The government has announced a £400m investment package for Northern Ireland. The money is being provided as part of the Northern Ireland protocol and it is aimed at “supporting businesses to operate after the transition period, whilst also ensuring that Northern Ireland is ready to seize the trade and investment opportunities ahead.”
Von der Leyen says 'fine balance of fairness' needed for trade deal not achieved yet
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European commission, has arrived at the EU summit starting in Brussels. Brexit is not meant to be on the agenda, but Von der Leyen said it would be coming up. Speaking to reporters on her way in, she said:
I had a very long conversation yesterday night with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It was a good conversation. But it is difficult.
We are willing to grant access to the single market to our British friends. It’s the biggest largest single market in the world. But the conditions have to be fair. They have to be fair for our workers and for our companies, and this fine balance of fairness has not been achieved so far.
Our negotiators are still working. And we will take a decision on Sunday.
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EU warns member states not to strike special deals with UK that might undermine single market
The European commission is also warning EU member states not to strike any unilateral deals with the UK in the event of there being no deal that would undermine the single market. In the 12-page document (pdf) summarising its plans, it says:
With regard to national measures [ie, any agreement between a member state and the UK], the commission will continue to engage with member states with the aim of ensuring that national measures do not fragment or undermine the single market.
Consequently, in the view of the commission, one core principle of national measures should be their temporary nature. A second principle is that the United Kingdom should not draw similar benefits from such measures as the ones offered by the union in the negotiations on the future agreement. National measures should also take into account the overarching priority with regard to the relationship of the union with any third country, in order to preserve the integrity of the single market, limit the risk of fragmentation and avoid unequal treatment of member states. In any event, national measures of any kind have to comply with EU law, including the principle of sincere cooperation.
At any rate, the EU collectively has a stronger bargaining power than each member state acting alone. This bargaining power benefits all member states. It must be used to ensure a level playing field between the EU and the United Kingdom.
EU road transport contingency plan dependent on UK accepting EU-equivalent fair competition rules
As the Economist’s Matthew Holehouse points out (see 11.02am), the EU contingency plans to maintain road transport connectivity in the event of no deal are conditional on the UK accepting fair competition rules. This is what the EU is saying about this in its 12-page document (pdf) giving details of the whole contingency planning package.
The proposed regulation would ensure continued basic road freight connectivity for a maximum duration of up to 6 months. This is conditional on the United Kingdom conferring equivalent rights to union road haulage operators, and subject to the application of rules equivalent to those of the EU on fair competition as well as social and technical rules.
In the Commons Peter Bone, a Tory Brexiter, asks for an assurance that Sunday is a firm deadline for a decision about a deal.
Penny Mordaunt, the Cabinet Office minister, says the end of the year is a very firm deadline. But she says the statement issued yesterday said the government would carry on negotiating until there was no point. She says Sunday “may well be” that deadline. She tells Bone:
I can give him greater reassurance than that because there is a very, very firm deadline which is at the end of this year and we and others have to legislate. So, I have to say that time is running out. What we will do is carry on negotiating until there no is hope left and I think that the statement that was made yesterday would indicate that Sunday - unless there is progress made - may well be that deadline.
- Mordaunt refuses to confirm that Sunday is an absolute deadline by which the government must decide whether or not a deal is possible.
For the record, this is what a Downing Street spokesperson said last night about the Sunday deadline.
[Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen] had a frank discussion about the state of play in the negotiations. They acknowledged that the situation remained very difficult and there were still major differences between the two sides.
They agreed that chief negotiators would continue talks over the next few days and that a firm decision should be taken about the future of the talks by Sunday.
Like Mordaunt, Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, also suggested this morning that there might be some flexibility in the Sunday deadline. (See 9.25am.)
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In the Commons Labour’s Bill Esterson says the stockpile of medicines accumulated last autumn, as part of the UK’s no-deal planning, turned out to be very useful in the Covid pandemic. Have they been replenished?
Penny Mordaunt says she cannot give Esterson a detailed update on what drugs been stockpiled, but she says a huge amount of work has been done on no-deal planning, including covering medical supplies.
I can’t give him drug by drug, line by line stocks, as he will appreciate, but I’m sure that the Department for Health and Social Care can.
What I can say is that I can reassure him on those matters. A huge amount of work has been done, a multi-layered approach, asking suppliers of medicines, medical products and other medical devices to help us replenish those stocks, but also making sure that they themselves are trader ready so that their business is not interrupted.
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These are from the Economist’s Matthew Holehouse.
The EU has published contingency measures that keep trucks, trains and planes moving in a No Deal exit. But guess what? They require to Britain uphold a “level playing field” including subsidy controls - the same principle it is willing to sink a deal over... pic.twitter.com/0Siyp5ElVi
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) December 10, 2020
This will be a surprise to no one in No 10: they are the same as measures published in preparation for no deal this time two years ago: https://t.co/05x50Cq89a
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) December 10, 2020
NB obligation for a state aid regulator. Between the Northern Ireland protocol, and this, you can see a route to Johnson getting more or less the same strictness of subsidy control as May’s deal would have produced, for much less market access. Same bath water, smaller baby... pic.twitter.com/C64KmwHOQh
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) December 10, 2020
In the Commons Duncan Baker, the Conservative MP for North Norfolk, says what is at stake in the talks is not the size of the fishing industry now; it is what it could be in the future. Under Brexit, the fishing sector has the chance to expand, he insists.
In the Commons Labour’s Geraint Davies asks if the government will publish an impact assessment of any deal on offer from the EU, so that people will know what they have lost if the government refuses it.
Mordaunt declines to give that commitment. She says the government has said what it is seeking.
Updated
Mark Harper, the former Conservative chief whip, tells Mordaunt that the prime minister has the full support of Conservative MPs for the approach he is taking.
Mordaunt accuses Labour of undermining UK's negotiating position by suggesting it's not ready for no deal
In the Commons Labour’s Rachel Reeves, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, said people would be dismayed by the government’s failure to secure a deal. She asked in particular what would happen on security cooperation in the event of there being no deal.
The country was hoping for a breakthrough last night, yet there was none. There is a sense of huge dismay as we all wanted to hear significant progress but we heard more about the prime minister’s meal than we did about his deal.
In fact, we have not heard from the prime minister at all, even though he was supposed to be taking charge of these negotiations.
On Sunday we’ll have just 18 days to go until the end of the transition period, how has it come to this? Businesses desperately trying to plan need to know what on earth is going on.
If the talks break down and government pursues no-deal, what happens next?
In reply, Mordaunt said the government was doing everything it could to get a deal and that she was still “optimistic” that a deal would be secured.
She also accused Labour of trying to undermine the government’s negotiating position “by pretending we are not ready for any outcome”.
Updated
UK and EU remain 'far apart' on key issues, Cabinet Office minister tells MPs
In the Commons Penny Mordaunt, the paymaster general and Cabinet Office minister, is responding to an urgent question from Labour on Brexit. She says the two sides remain “far apart” on key issues.
It is clear that we remain far apart on the so-called on the so called level playing field, fisheries and governance ...
We can’t accept a deal that would compromise the control of our money, our laws, borders, and our fish. The only deal that is possible, is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, trade, and waters.
EU includes demand for continued access to UK fisheries in no-deal contingency plans
The European commission’s news release about its no deal contingency plans is here.
Another eight documents have been published alongside the press notice. They are here.
Here are the key points.
- The EU is saying that, even if a deal were agreed now, it might not be possible to bring it into force by 1 January.
- The EU is hinting it might link access to UK fisheries for EU fishing fleets to Britain having easy road and air access to the EU. The press notice does not say this explicitly, but it says the EU would push for “continued reciprocal access by EU and UK vessels to each other’s waters after 31 December 2020” in the light of “the importance of fisheries for the economic livelihood of many communities”. This would be at the discretion of the UK, but the inclusion of fishing alongside passages covering air and road travel implies a link. This is what the press notice says on fisheries:
A proposal for a regulation to create the appropriate legal framework until 31 December 2021, or until a fisheries agreement with the UK has been concluded – whichever date is earlier – for continued reciprocal access by EU and UK vessels to each other’s waters after 31 December 2020. In order to guarantee the sustainability of fisheries and in light of the importance of fisheries for the economic livelihood of many communities, it is necessary to facilitate the procedures of authorisation of fishing vessels.
- The contingency measures to ensure that air and road travel between the UK an the EU can continue are only proposed to last for six months. The EU says:
The aim of these contingency measures is to cater for the period during which there is no agreement in place. If no agreement enters into application, they will end after a fixed period.
This implies that the EU would expect another round of talks on a long-term deal to resume.
- The EU says disruption is inevitable in the event of no deal. It says:
While a ‘no-deal’ scenario will cause disruptions in many areas, some sectors would be disproportionately affected due to a lack of appropriate fall-back solutions and because in some sectors, stakeholders cannot themselves take mitigating measures ...
Disruption will happen with or without an agreement between the EU and the UK on their future relationship. This is the natural consequence of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the Union and to no longer participate in the EU single market and customs union. The commission has always been very clear about this.
- The contingency measures published today do not cover security cooperation.
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EU publishes no-deal contingency plans amid 'significant uncertainty' over whether any deal possible by 1 January
This is from Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president. She is telling the EU to prepare for a possible no deal on 1 January and publishing contingency plans that would help to minimise the damage this would cause.
Negotiations are still ongoing but the end of the transition is near. There is no guarantee that if & when an agreement is found it can enter into force on time. We have to be prepared including for not having a deal in place on 1 January. Today we present contingency measures ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/FQ4Urn9YUC
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) December 10, 2020
You can read the full announcement here. And this is how it starts.
While the commission will continue to do its utmost to reach a mutually beneficial agreement with the UK, there is now significant uncertainty whether a deal will be in place on 1 January 2021.
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Raab plays down concerns about food prices rising and shortages in shops in event of no deal
I’ve already quoted some of what Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, said in his morning interviews this morning. (See 9.25am.) Here are some of the other lines from his interviews.
- Raab, the foreign secretary, said that failure to strike a trade deal with the EU would lead to “some bumps along the road”, but he played down concerns about the cost of food going up or shops facing shortages. Asked about a claim from the Tesco chairman John Allan that food bills could rise by 5% in the event of no deal, Raab said he did not recognise that figure. He went on:
Of all the things that will be a challenge, I am not concerned about either supermarket cupboards running bare or the cost of food prices.
Equally, there will be some bumps along the road if we don’t get a free trade deal, that’s the inevitable consequence of change.
But we will be well braced and well prepared to deal with those, and we are going to make a success of leaving the transition period, come what may.
- Raab did not dispute reports saying British holidaymakers will be barred from the European Union from 1 January under current Covid-19 safety restrictions. Asked about the reports (see below for the Guardian’s version), Raab said: “I’m afraid restriction on travel, inevitably, is going to be something that is kept under review.”
Stephan Mayer, a state secretary at Germany’s interior ministry, told the Today programme this morning that he was “deeply convinced” that it was in the interests of the EU and the UK to reach a trade deal. No deal was an option for Germany, he said. But he went on:
I’m deeply convinced that a no deal in the end would be the worst solution for both sides. For UK, as well as for the European Union. I’m deeply convinced as well that it should be in the interest of both sides to find a solution and to find an agreement, within the next few hours or few days, at least until Sunday.
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Britain’s economic recovery from the first wave of the Covid-19 had almost come to a standstill as fresh restrictions affecting the hospitality sector were imposed in the autumn, according to the latest official data. My colleague Larry Elliott has the story here.
Raab says 'substantial movement' needed from EU for trade deal to be agreed
Good morning. If you were listening to the Today programme this morning, at around 6.40am, you will have heard them play the wrong “Yesterday in Parliament”. It went on for about five minutes, because no one seemed to notice; a minister waffling on about the vaccine, opposition MPs denouncing the government as useless - often parliament all sounds the same.
And so it is with Brexit. Last night Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, had dinner in Brussels. This was supposed to decide whether or not a UK-EU trade deal would be possible. But instead all we got was an agreement for talks to continue, with Sunday now set as the apparent decision day. On a conservative count, this is at least the fourth such deadline we’ve had. Here is our overnight story.
But even the Sunday deadline is not quite set in stone. Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, was doing interviews this morning and he admitted that it could slip. Asked if the talks could be extended beyond Sunday, he said: “You need some point of finality on negotiations.” But then he added:
I think it’s unlikely but I can’t categorically exclude it.
Raab also said that, for a deal to happen, there would have to be “substantial movement” from the EU. Referring to the dinner last night, he said:
It’s fair to say that whilst there was a good conversation last night, and it was frank and it was candid, the significant points of difference remain.
I don’t think we can keep going on at that pace without having some progress and some flexibility.
Particularly from the UK side, we look at the differences on fairly key points of principle - fairly narrow in scope, we are talking about fisheries, level playing field commitments, the EU’s attempt to lock us in to their rules - we need to see substantial movement.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The ONS publishes its regular report on the impact of coronavirus on the economy.
9.30am: NHS England publishes its monthly waiting time figures.
10.30am: Penny Mordaunt, the Cabinet Office minister, answers a Commons urgent question on the Brexit trade talks.
11am: NHS test and trace publishes its weekly performance figures.
12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.
12.20pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions in the Scottish parliament.
After 1pm: MPs debate the Lords amendments to the internal market bill.
2pm: NHS England publishes its weekly Covid surveillance report.
2pm: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee.
I will be focusing on Brexit and non-Covid politics today. Mostly we will be covering the UK coronavirus developments in our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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