Afternoon summary
- Leading European industrialists have told Theresa May that trade with the EU should be “as frictionless as with a customs union” after Brexit. That is not consistent with her current plans; the government says it wants trade with the EU to be as frictionless as possible after Brexit, implying some new friction will be added, and in her Mansion House speech May said: “In certain ways, our access to each other’s markets will be less than it is now.” In a statement issued after a meeting with May in Downing Street, the European Round Table of Industrialists (ERT) said its members expressed their “concerns” to the prime minister. The ERT went on:
The uninterrupted flow of goods is essential to both the EU and UK economies. This must be frictionless as with a customs union. We need clarity and certainty, because time is running out. Uncertainty causes less investment.
Sky’s Tom Boadle has tweeted a copy of the full statement.
NEW: major European business leaders @ert_eu tell Theresa May they “need clarity and certainty, because time is running out” as they warn that “uncertainty causes less investment” following a meeting with the PM at Number 10. pic.twitter.com/ElYo5X7Nlo
— Tom Boadle (@TomBoadle) May 30, 2018
- A defunct European political grouping that was dominated by Ukip has been asked to repay €1.1m (£977,000) to the European parliament following an investigation into misspending of EU funds. As Jennifer Rankin reports, the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe was a Eurosceptic pan-European political party, until it was closed down after a 2016 auditors’ inquiry found misspending of EU funds, including on Nigel Farage’s bid to become an MP in the 2015 UK general election.
- Voters have become significantly more negative about the impact of Brexit on the British economy and on life in Britain in general over the last 15 months, a Guardian/ICM poll suggests. (See 12.53pm.)
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
The People’s Vote campaign, which is campaigning for a referendum on the final Brexit deal, is not surprised by the findings of our latest Brexit poll. (See 12.53pm.) It has put out this statement from the Labour MP Stephen Doughty.
It’s no wonder voters are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the economic impact of Brexit, as we already know households are £900 worse off and that the UK has slipped to the bottom of the GDP growth table for developed countries, and that’s before we’ve even left.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the public can see that the Brexit promises of the likes of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are not going to be delivered.
With the fantasy promises of Brexit melting away, and the public increasingly pessimistic about the economic consequences, we need a People’s Vote on the final Brexit deal.
Tory deputy chair suggests Labour women attacking May over abortion in Northern Ireland aren't proper feminists
James Cleverly, the Conservative party deputy chairman, has hit back. In a Twitter thread starting here, he defends her record on women’s right and points out that Labour was quite happy to leave the abortion laws in Northern Ireland unreformed when it was in power.
The attacks on Theresa May about abortion in Northern Ireland from Labour voices, have little to do with women’s right to choose, and everything to do with opportunistic party political game playing.
— James Cleverly (@JamesCleverly) May 30, 2018
He even suggests the female Labour MPs attacking May over this aren’t proper feminists.
Those Labour women who are pointing at Theresa May, a highly successful women in a traditionally man’s world, and trying to undermine her over abortion rights in a devolved part of the UK should ask themselves “am I a proper feminist?”
— James Cleverly (@JamesCleverly) May 30, 2018
Updated
Labour draws up plan to speed up inquiries into antisemitic abuse
Labour’s investigations into antisemitic abuse are to be strictly time-limited, de-politicised and made more consistent under new moves to tackle the problem within the party, HuffPost’s Paul Waugh reports. His story goes on:
A 13-point action plan, leaked to HuffPost UK, includes proposals to fast-track the process by using smaller, specially-trained teams of investigators and by anonymising complaints to remove any risk of political or personal bias.
More disciplinary cases will be dealt with solely through written testimony rather than oral hearings and a new in-house lawyer will produce clearer evidence tests to standardise the system and make it more transparent.
You can read his full report, including a the document presented to Labour’s national executive committee explaining the plan, here.
RMT union decides to 'align' with Labour but not to reaffiliate to party
The Rail, Maritime and Transport (RMT) union will not reaffiliate to Labour but will “align” itself to the party, a special conference has decided. As the Press Association reports, the union’s 80,000 members will be encouraged to be active in the Labour party, whilst remaining unaffiliated. RMT general secretary Mick Cash said:
Our consultation has shown that the views of our branches and regions are finely balanced and the conference has decided that, whilst we do not support affiliation at this current time, there is the potential for the union to affiliate to the Labour party at a future date if there is clearer support for this.
Many of our members have also reacted angrily to constant attempts by a hard core of Labour MPs to undermine Jeremy Corbyn and the radical progressive changes he has made to Labour.
In contrast, there is a clear desire amongst RMT members to support Jeremy Corbyn and the left leadership of the Labour party and that is why we are now putting in place other concrete steps to throw the weight of the RMT behind supporting the socialist advances that have been made in the Labour party - this will include aligning ourselves towards Labour, encouraging members to be active in Labour and allowing our branches and regions to fund Labour candidates.
The RMT used to be affiliated to Labour but was expelled in 2004 after it backed the Scottish Socialists, a rival party.
Nicola Sturgeon has tweeted an unexpected and detailed defence of the report by the SNP’s Growth Commission, which was published last Friday. (See 11.11am.)
Following significant criticism of the report - designed to offer a more sober evaluation of Scotland’s economic future as an independent country - by figures across the wider Yes movement as well as opposition politicians, Sturgeon insisted today that it offered an alternative to Westminster austerity, the “Brexit spiral” and lack of investment.
Perhaps most interesting is not the content of the tweets but the fact that the first minister felt moved to type them in the first place. She has, of course, said that the report should be a starting point for fresh debate on the economic practicalities of independence, so in that sense she is simply sticking to her word.
But it does raise the question whether she has been stung by criticisms from those within the pro-independence family, like that of Orwell Prize-shortlisted commentator Darren McGarvey - who is fast becoming one of the most interesting observers of Scottish politics currently writing. He described the report as “laughably centrist”, “too keen to placate the financial sector” and offering a “timid vision” of Scotland’s future.
Meanwhile, former SNP MP George Kerevan warned that the report “sticks to the very currency option that helped defeat the independence proposition back in 2014”.
Likewise, Scottish Labour quickly found a catchy rejoinder when they characterised the report a “cuts commission rather than a growth commission”.
Sturgeon has promised a series of assemblies of SNP members over the summer to discuss the report’s content. It will be interesting to hear how many of these concerns are shared by the membership who now, let’s not forget, represent a significant tranche of Scottish society.
Theresa May is chairing a meeting of business leaders and industrialists to discuss Brexit at Number 10 this afternoon. Here are some of the attendees arriving.
Ruth Davidson backs May over it being wrong for Westminster to liberalise abortion in Northern Ireland
Theresa May was criticised yesterday for refusing to commit the government to legislating to give women in Northern Ireland the same abortion rights as women in the rest of the United Kingdom. Downing Street says this is a devolved matter, and the power-sharing executive at Stormont (when or if it ever gets going again - it’s been suspended for 16 months) should decide.
It is an issue on which Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader and about the most prominent figure on the modernising/progressive wing of the party, could easily have chosen to cause trouble. As she proved in a major speech in Scotland last night (full text here), Davidson is willing (at least up to a point) to say when she thinks May is wrong. Yesterday she criticised May’s target for cutting annual net migration.
But, on abortion, Davidson is backing May’s argument that this is a matter for Stormont, not for MPs. These are from the FT’s Laura Hughes.
NEW:@RuthDavidsonMSP to FT: “If I was a politician in NI I would absolutely 100 % vote to change the law.But as someone who operates in a devolved administration I know how angry I would be if the House of Commons legislated on a domestic Scottish issue over the head of Holyrood"
— Laura Hughes (@Laura_K_Hughes) May 30, 2018
.@RuthDavidsonMSP "This whole issue demonstrates why it’s so important to get the administration of Northern Ireland up and running again, so serious and important issues of domestic policy are able to be properly addressed.”
— Laura Hughes (@Laura_K_Hughes) May 30, 2018
Davidson also said the same thing in an interview yesterday with ITV Border. She said she was “torn” on the issue but that, even though she would vote for abortion liberalisation if she sat in Stormont, she did not think it was right for Westminster to take the initiative. She said:
As a devolved politician in Scotland, if the House of Commons changed the law in Scotland in an area that was under Holyrood control, I would be pretty annoyed about that. And I’m pretty sure the nationalists would be even more annoyed about that.
(The SNP would say that, on the subject of the EU withdrawal bill and its incursion on devolution, Davidson and the Scottish Conservatives have managed very successfully to hide their annoyance, although arguably the issues are different.)
When ITV Border’s Peter MacMahon put it to Davidson that legislating from Westminster might be justified because there is no Northern Ireland executive at the moment, she replied:
I think that you run into very, very tricky waters, particularly as somebody that operates in a devolved parliament, to say that anytime something is in stasis, we just let the Commons legislate on a domestic issue. I don’t believe in that.
For anyone unfamiliar with 1970s comedy, the interview also included a bizarre line when Davidson quoted Monty Python after MacMahon suggested that she was seen as the “messiah” for the Conservative party. There is a link to the interview here.
"I'm not the Messiah, nor am I a very naughty boy" @RuthDavidsonMSP tells me in response to calls for her to save UK @Conservatives @ScotTories leader challenges @theresa_may immigration targets + calls for more #NHS70 funding
— Peter MacMahon (@petermacmahon) May 30, 2018
Latest @ITVBorderRB : https://t.co/57v8gzyrae
Theresa May’s appeal for a special Brexit deal on science and research collaboration, worth billions to the British economy, is being stonewalled by Brussels as it prepares to offer an arrangement less privileged and more expensive than that given to non-EU states such as Israel, my colleague Daniel Boffey reports.
Parliament's telephones affected by flooding
Severe flooding has played havoc with the telephone lines in Parliament, the Press Association reports. Engineers were called to the parliamentary estate after exceptionally heavy rainfall caused “intermittent faults” with the lines. Tottenham MP David Lammy advised constituents attempting to contact his office to email instead. A House of Commons spokesman said:
Due to severe flooding, there are intermittent faults on a number of telephone lines on the estate. We are working to restore connectivity as soon as possible.
This is just the latest in a long list of episodes showing how dilapidated the Palace of Westminster is. At the Victoria Tower end of the building there is currently scaffolding up to protect pedestrians after a chunk of masonry (said to be the size of a football) fell 70m to the ground. The building is, quite literally, falling apart.
Voters have become significantly more pessimistic about impact of Brexit on economy and UK generally over last year, poll suggests
We have some new Guardian/ICM polling out today, covering Brexit and voting intention.
Impact of Brexit
We asked respondents whether they thought Brexit would have a positive impact or a negative impact on the British economy, on their personal finances and on life in the UK generally.
- Voters are more likely to think that the impact of Brexit will be negative than positive. They are particularly likely to think it will be bad for their personal finances (14% positive, 32% negative, making a net rating of -18), but they also think it will have a negative impact on the economy (net -15) and on life in Britain generally (net -7).
Here are the detailed figures.
Impact on the British economy
Positive impact: 30%
Negative impact: 45%
No difference: 13%
Don’t know: 13%
Net: -15
Impact on your personal finances
Positive impact: 14%
Negative impact: 32%
No difference: 40%
Don’t know: 14%
Net: -18
Impact on life in Britain generally
Positive impact: 32%
Negative impact: 39%
No difference: 18%
Don’t know: 11%
Net: -7
If these figures seem broadly familiar, that’s not surprising. This is a tracker question, and we have asked it repeatedly over the last year or so. That means we are able to say with some certainty how opinion has (or hasn’t) shifted. Here are the details.
- Voters have become significantly more negative about the impact of Brexit on the British economy and on life in Britain generally over the last 15 months.
Here are the figures showing changes in the net score on the impact on the economy measure.
And here are the figures showing changes in the net score on impact on life in Britain in general.
- Voters are marginally less negative about the impact that Brexit will have on their personal finances than they were 15 months ago. But the shift is relatively small (net -22 in February 2017, net -18 now), and overall the pessimists still strongly outnumber the optimists.
ICM’s Alex Turk says that the detailed polling figures help to explain why the headline figures are shifting.
While these headline figures show a slight increase in negativity towards Brexit, our polling also offers clues on where this may be coming from. These are small changes – but across all three statements, there’s an indication that the increase in overall negativity could be attributed to increasing negativity among those who voted remain in 2016, while those who voted leave look increasingly unsure about the likely impact of Brexit, answering ‘don’t know’.
This last finding – of possible increasing uncertainty on the impact of Brexit among leave voters – is something to watch out for over the coming months. If remainers become increasingly certain that Brexit is a bad idea, while leavers waver more and more, then interesting times lie ahead.
If you are interested in looking back at the previous figures, the February 2017 results are here, the July 2017 ones are here, the September 2017 ones are here, and the January 2018 ones are here.
Voting intention
We also asked our regular question about voting intention. With the exception of the Greens, who are down one point, all parties are recording exactly the same support that they had in the Guardian/ICM poll two weeks ago.
Conservatives: 43%
Labour: 40%
Lib Dems: 8%
Ukip: 3%
Greens: 2%
I will post a link to the tables here a bit later, when they go up on the ICM website.
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,002 adults aged 18+, between 25 and 29 May 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
UPDATE: The tables are here (pdf). And here is the ICM write-up.
Updated
Minor excitement at Westminster. This is from ITV’s Carl Dinnen.
NEW; Police have arrested a man who tried to climb into the Palace of Westminster. pic.twitter.com/gvuFQvCYF3
— Carl Dinnen (@carldinnen) May 30, 2018
OECD upgrades UK growth forecast, but says growth remains 'modest' compared to other countries
An influential global body has upgraded its forecasts for UK economic performance, but warned of continuing “high uncertainties” over the outcome of Brexit, the Press Association reports. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s twice-yearly Economic Outlook report found that economic growth remains “modest” in the UK, compared with other major economies. It warned that the government must stand ready to ease up on austerity measures if growth weakens significantly in the run-up to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Brexit negotiations should aim to “preserve open trade with the European Union and high access for financial services to EU markets”, said the report.
The May 2018 Economic Outlook projected GDP growth of 1.4% in the UK this year - up from 1.2% in its November 2017 forecast. Growth in 2019 was also nudged up from 1.1% six months ago to 1.3% now. But the UK continues to lag behind most major economies, with world economic growth forecast at 3.8% this year and 3.9% in 2019, the Press Association reports.
Boris Johnson condemns Babchenko murder and tells Moscow to stop hounding Bill Browder
Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has been tweeting about Russia this morning.
He has welcomed the Spanish decision to release Bill Browder, the anti-Putin campaigner detained in the country under a Russian warrant.
Just spoken to Bill Browder – very glad that he has now been released. Moscow should concentrate on bringing those responsible for the murder of #Magnitsky to justice
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) May 30, 2018
And he condemned the murder of Arkady Babchenko, the journalist and Putin critic, in Kiev.
Appalled to see another vocal Russian journalist, Arkady Babchenko, murdered. My thoughts are with his wife and young daughter. We must defend freedom of speech and it is vital that those responsible are now held to account.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) May 30, 2018
Lord Malloch-Brown, the former Foreign Office minister who chairs the anti-Brexit group Best for Britain, was on the Today programme this morning defending the George Soros campaign for a second referendum. As the New European reports, he said there was nothing wrong with asking people to change their minds. He said:
Democracy is a history of U-turns. The day that, you know, Britons just settle back and accept one election victory as the end of democracy - that party is in power forever - is an unlikely moment.
It is the same with this referendum, it was a referendum on the principle to negotiate a deal for exit. We will soon see the terms of that deal and it’s already evident from the confusion in the government that those terms are going to offer Britain a much less good economic prospect than we currently enjoy.
I think the British people who have been very badly let down by their politicians on all sides of this then deserve the right to have the final say on is this deal good for us or not.
Sturgeon rejects claims SNP growth commission plans would perpetuate austerity
When the SNP published its sustainable growth commission report last week, an economic blueprint for independence, Scottish Labour said it would perpetuate austerity.
Today Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first miniser, says they’re wrong. She addressed this point in a series of tweets defending the report.
1/ Reading lots of interesting comments about the #GrowthCommission - which is good. So much better to be discussing how to build a successful independent Scotland than just resigning ourselves to managing the decline of Brexit UK. A few points worth underlining though...
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
2/ the report explicitly rejects austerity eg Part B p44 - “Scotland should explicitly reject the austerity model pursued by the U.K. in recent years” and recommends above inflation spending growth each year. A marked contrast to the failed Westminster approach.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
3/ report also stresses importance of investment to boost economy and that fiscal targets should not be at the expense of growth - another sharp contrast with Westminster. Indeed, it recommends fiscal stimulus both in the independence transition and in periods of low growth.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
4/ the report’s projections about deficit reduction are deliberately cautious. They make no assumptions about higher growth - and instead illustrate that even in worst case scenario independence is a better option that sticking with Westminster system that created the deficit....
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
5/ ...but with the powers of independence and by following report’s advice on how we can match the success of other small countries - particularly its recommendations on population - higher growth, more revenue and increased prosperity and fairness is the attainable prize.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
6/ so we have a choice - stay as we are, locked into the Brexit spiral and continued austerity that the Westminster parties offer no alternative to - or decide to equip ourselves with the powers to build our way to a better future.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
7/ lastly, policy choices in an independent Scotland will always be for the government of the day, so we should welcome debate - but without independence, these choices will always be far too limited. That’s the case we must win - and #GrowthCommission helps us do it.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 30, 2018
Tories receive more than three times as much as Labour in donations in first quarter 2018
The Electoral Commission has published figures showing what donations were made to political parties in the first quarter of 2018. The Conservatives received more than three times as much money as Labour.
Here are the overall figures.
Ukip did not receive any donations big enough to meet the threshold for reporting (£7,500.)
But the Electoral Commission report (pdf) setting out these figures in detail also shows that Ukip did take out new loans in the first three months of this year worth £86,379. The only party that took out more was the Liberal Democrats, who took out loans worth £100,000.
And here are the top individual donors in the first three months of this year.
Earlier this month, in an interview with the Financial Times (paywall), Erna Solberg, the Norwegian prime minister, suggested she would be happy for the UK to remain in the EEA (European Economic Area) after leaving the EU, joining Norway.
Sky’s political editor, Faisal Islam, has been looking at Norway’s Europe strategy and he has posted a thread on it starting here.
Norwegian Government releases its European policy document, which at times reads like an invitation to UK to join EEA, at others warns UK/EU that any special access cooked up for post Brexit UK as third country, must be matched for Norway... https://t.co/CQdjD0voMQ
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 29, 2018
He says Norway will seek to match any special arrangements the UK gets with the EU after Brexit in terms of a security deal.
EG Norway will seek to match any UK-EU cooperation in justice, home affairs, foreign and security policy - is the security treaty... /3 pic.twitter.com/pyueu3otML
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 29, 2018
Updated
Stanley Johnson, the I’m a Celebrity contestant, father of Boris, remain voter and ubiquitous rent-a-quote, has said the Brexit referendum should be re-run if it is proved that Russia tried to sway the result. Speaking on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, he said:
It’s perfectly obvious the Russians were pretty heavily involved in the American election, more and more comes out, and it’s perfectly obvious to me at least that there is far more in the Brexit vote than has so far come out.
Asked if he meant Russian involvement, he replied:
Yes, absolutely. We are getting the Facebook stuff, the data which went into Facebook, all the tweets, and above all, some mega event like a massive migration crisis in the run-up to the 2016 election.
If it was proved conclusively that everything I said happened, happened then you might say, some might say, was this a fair fight?
Let’s not have a second referendum but let’s have a rerun of the first.
Public health at risk if UK loses access to EU food safety databases, say council chiefs
One consequence of Brexit is that it is focusing public attention on all sorts of issues - basically, the regulatory and legal plumbing of the modern British state - that for years have languished in obscurity.
For example, have you ever heard of RASFF (the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed)? Or TRACES (the Trade Control and Expert System)?
Me neither, until they featured in a press release that arrived in my inbox. They are both EU databases relating to food and livestock safety. RASFF allows food safety alerts and notifications to be shared amongst EU member states. And TRACES is a similar system, circulating information about sanitary requirement relating to animals and plants.
Councils are responsible for consumer safety and today the Local Government Association, which represents 370 councils in England and Wales, is today warning that, without access to these databases, there will be a risk to public health. Access should continue during the transition, but after that finishes in December 2020, nothing has been agreed.
In a statement Kevin Bentley, chair of the LGA’s Brexit taskforce, said:
If we lose access to these databases, we will lose access to vital intelligence about the origin of food, feed and animal products, and won’t be aware when rapid alerts are issued to the rest of the continent.
This will significantly weaken our ability to effectively protect the food system, increasing the risk of a new scandal and undermining public confidence in the food industry.
After years of funding reductions for trading standards and environmental health, we simply do not have the capacity to increase checks to offset this risk, either at ports or inland, unless this is fully funded. Without additional capacity, there is simply no alternative to continuing to receive and share this type of information.
Continued access to these EU wide databases is of vital importance and the government and the European Union must ensure that it is maintained.
The LGA is cross-party, but Conservative-led. Bentley is a Conservative councillor from Essex.
In response, the government claimed Brexit would lead to food safety standards being enhanced. A government spokesman said:
As we leave the EU, food safety and consumer protection will not only be maintained but enhanced. From day one our world-class Food Standards Agency will have a robust and effective regulatory regime in place to ensure business can continue as normal.
Parliament is still in recess and it looks like another quiet day at Westminster. The only item on the agenda is Theresa May chairing a meeting with industrialists to discuss Brexit at 1.30pm in Downing Street.
But, as usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens - at least, if there is any - as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at the end of the day.
And we have got a new Guardian/ICM poll. I will post the findings later.
You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’ top 10 must reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.
Updated
.png?w=600)
