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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Politics
Lizzy Buchan, Zamira Rahim

Boris Johnson news: Tories on brink of losing majority as top Brexiteer attacks Farage for splitting by-election vote

Boris Johnson has suffered a blow to his authority after the Liberal Democrats overturned the Tory majority in Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, powered by a "Remain alliance".

Jo Swinson, the new Lib Dem leader, suggested future electoral pacts between pro-EU parties after Plaid Cymru and the Greens threw their weight behind her party for the ballot, which reduced the Tory majority to only one.

"It is still eminently possible to stop Brexit," she said, at an event at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe.

"Delivering a People's Vote is still an option - the way in which in March we took control of the order paper - that is something which could be done again.

"We are going to explore different strategies."

She added: "What happened in March was that a motion was used to take control of the order paper, so that it was not only the Prime Minister or the leader of the House on a given day that was able to initiate what the business would be.

"So there are ways around it. And then you get into - is that better achieved by a vote of no confidence to bring the government down, or is it about bringing forward a Bill to secure a People's Vote."

Ms Swinson's comments come as a leaked Whitehall document laid bare widespread fears of consumer panic, rising crime and economic chaos in the aftermath a no-deal Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said the party's fourth place position in the by-election was "disappointing".

If you would like to see how events in Westminster unfolded, please see what was our live coverage below:

Welcome to The Independent's politics liveblog, where we will be bringing you the latest updates throughout the day.
 
Here is today's front page:
 

Boris Johnson has suffered a significant blow after the Liberal Democrats won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, slashing the new prime minister's Commons majority to just one.

Jane Dodds, the Lib Dem candidate, overturned a Tory majority of 8,083 to defeat incumbent Chris Davies by 1,425 votes in the Welsh constituency.

Here's our wrap on this morning's big story:

A leaked Whitehall document has laid out the grim assessment by senior mandarins of the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
 

Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson predicted further electoral pacts between pro-EU parties following the success in Brecon and Radnorshire.

She said the result sent a "really clear message that the country doesn't have to settle for Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn, there is another positive alternative that is winning again and on the up and that is the Liberal Democrats".

Ms Swinson told BBC Radio 4's Today: "I do think that working across party lines is important when there is so much at stake for the future of our country and I will continue to do that.

"I've exchanged messages this morning with the Green and Plaid leaderships and I think there will be more co-operation in future elections."

Here's a clip of Jane Dodds, after she won the by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire.
 
Mark Carney has rejected criticism of his stance on Brexit, insisting the "challenges" posed by a no-deal departure from the European Union should not be played down.

A "substantial number" of firms would find they were no longer competitive as a result of a sudden shift to World Trade Organisation rules on 31 October, he warned, and a fall in sterling would lead to price rises for food and fuel.

The Bank of England Governor told the Today programme: "The economics of no-deal are that the rules of the game for trade - exporting to Europe or importing from Europe - fundamentally change.

"There are some very big industries in this country where that which is highly profitable becomes not profitable, becomes uneconomic, and very difficult decisions will need to be taken.

"That has knock-on effects on the economy in the short term."

Mr Carney said the shock to the economy would be "instantaneous" in a no-deal Brexit.

He told Today: "One would expect prices to go up. It's reasonable to expect, the markets are absolutely clear on this, that in the event of no deal the exchange rate would go down for a period of time.

"And the area of the economy where that instantly translates into prices - it's at the forecourt of the petrol station and in fruit and veg."

Mr Carney said he was not commenting on the longer-term impact of a no-deal Brexit but added: "It may take a while to get to the sunlit uplands."

The Independent Group for Change also stood aside to make room for the Liberal Democrats in Brecon. It's leader - ex-Tory MP Anna Soubry - tweets her congratulations. 
 
 
 

Britain faces a one in three chance of recession even if there is an orderly Brexit, the Bank of England has warned, as it slashed its forecasts for economic growth over the coming year but held interest rates steady at 0.75 per cent.

And a no-deal Brexit would mean even slower growth, a further hit to the value of sterling and rising inflation, the central bank forecast.

Governor Mark Carney issued the stark warning as the pound continued to plunge, reaching its lowest level against the dollar in two and a half years, while other data showed a sharp decline in UK manufacturing.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said the Brecon by-election result proved the success of electoral pacts.

She said: "While the Leave side has an inherent advantage in elections due to its vote being concentrated between only two parties whereas the pro-EU vote is split across at least four, working together can clearly help beat those odds.

"More than 100,000 people have now signed our petition calling for these parties to work together. Now that we know it works, we will continue meeting internationalist MPs from all parties and use this model to prevent the Brexit extremists from getting a majority in the event of an election."

Who is Jane Dodds, parliament's newest MP?
 
Ben Birchall/PA Wire

A name unfamiliar to those outside Welsh politics, the 55-year-old is a qualified child protection social worker who was elected Welsh party leader two years ago.

Born and raised in a Welsh-speaking family in Wrexham, the Cardiff University graduate lives in Powys with her husband Patrick.

She said her parents "taught me the value of public service from the day I was born", and added that she was "passionate about tackling injustice".

Her victory came after she ran on a platform of "opposing Conservative cuts, protecting vital rural services, and standing up for Welsh farmers and local jobs".

As the Lib Dem candidate for Montgomeryshire in the 2015 and 2017 general elections, she twice lost to Conservative Glyn Davies.

Between 2006 and 2010, Ms Dodds served as a councillor in the North Richmond ward of Richmond upon Thames in London.

Referring to her parents and upbringing on her website, Ms Dodds said: "They drove me to work hard and get the best education I could. I graduated from Cardiff University then trained to become a social worker.

"For the last 27 years, I've been working to protect vulnerable children at home and abroad.

"Now I'm running to be Brecon and Radnorshire's new MP because I believe we deserve better from our politicians and the Westminster Government.

"I want to stand up for everyone in our community that feels let down by those in power."

Boris Johnson has called a Cobra emergency meeting to discuss the collapse of the dam at Whaley Bridge in Derbyshire.

In a statement, the PM said: My thoughts are with those who have had to leave their homes and all of those who are affected in #WhaleyBridge. First responders, engineers and RAF crews are working around the clock to fix the dam.

"I have just spoken to GOLD Commander and Deputy Chief Constable Rachel Swann to thank them for their ongoing efforts and I have instructed the Environment Secretary to chair a COBR meeting later today to coordinate the government’s response."

We are running a separate liveblog about the Whaley Bridge disaster here:

Are any Conservative MPs going to defect to the Liberal Democrats?
 

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party beat Ukip at the by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, pushing the ardent Eurosceptics into last place.

The satirical group known for its nonsensical policies proved more popular than the Brexiteers in the crucial vote which saw the Lib Dems take the seat from the Tories.

More here: 

Dominic Raab has been accused of "misleading the public" over no-deal Brexit and bringing the post of Foreign Secretary "into disrepute".

Labour former Foreign Office minister Ben Bradshaw has written to the foreign secretary calling on him to apologise for claiming the prospect of a disorderly exit from the EU was "widely discussed and considered a realistic prospect during the 2016 EU referendum".

Mr Bradshaw said the claim there is a mandate for a no-deal Brexit is "deeply dishonest and demeans the office of foreign secretary".

In the letter, Mr Bradshaw told Mr Raab: "Your pronouncements since taking the job just a few days ago risk bringing this great office of state into disrepute.

"I was astonished to hear you claim on the BBC's Today programme on Monday 29 July that the prospect of a no-deal exit from the European Union was widely discussed and considered a realistic prospect during the 2016 EU referendum.

"You must know this is simply not true.

"There appears to be no evidence at all of you ever suggesting that leaving the EU without a deal was a likely or possible outcome.

"Indeed, whenever the question was put to you, you suggested the opposite - you claimed that a new, better deal would be negotiated with the EU if people voted to leave.

"You said the UK would of course retain a strong trading relationship with Europe and would likely get a bespoke deal, and stated, 'the idea that Britain would be apocalyptically off the cliff edge if we left the EU is silly'.

"This is not a subject for debate, it is a matter of public record."

Arch Brexiteer Steve Baker has called on the Brexit Party not to stand against the Tories - or risk splitting the Eurosceptic vote.
 
Looking at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, Baker may have a point. The Lib Dems won 43.5% while the Tories got 39% and the Brexit Party 10.5%. If you add the Brexit Party and the Tories together, they would have won with 49.5% of the vote.
 
Veteran MP Frank Field, who quit Labour last year, is to stand at the next general election as the Birkenhead Social Justice candidate, he has announced. 

Announcing his candidacy at Birkenhead Town Hall, in Merseyside, Frank Field said: "I will be standing again as a candidate at the next election with the aim of doing what I have done for 40 years - always putting the interests of our town and our country first while championing the views and interests of the underdogs in our society."

The chairman of the Work and Pensions Select Committee sits as an independent after resigning the Labour whip last August citing antisemitism and "nastiness" in the party.

Mr Field, 77, has been MP for Birkenhead in Merseyside since 1979 and is one of the longest-serving MPs in the Commons.

Environment secretary Theresa Villiers is to chair a meeting of Cobra today on the Whaley Bridge dam chaos.

She said: “This morning I am receiving regular updates from the ground on the situation in Whaley Bridge and the fast action being taken by the police and other agencies.

“Later today I will chair a meeting of the government’s emergency COBR committee to make sure everything possible is being done to draw down water levels, fix damage to the dam and protect homes and businesses.

“My thoughts are with those who have had to leave their homes and I would like to thank all emergency services, military personnel and all others for their continued hard work.”

Up to 10 so-called free ports will be established in the UK after Brexit under new plans unveiled by the government.

Shipping ports and airports across the UK will be invited to bid for “free port” status after Britain leaves the EU, in line with a pledge made by Boris Johnson during the Tory leadership contest.

Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, claimed the move would create thousands of jobs and boost economic growth.

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