Afternoon summary
- Downing Street has hinted that the Commons vote on the withdrawal agreement bill will be make or break for Theresa May’s future as prime minister, as ministers have warned that, if she loses, the UK will face a choice between no-deal and no Brexit. (See 3.20pm.)
- Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has urged the home secretary to introduce flexible immigration rules for skilled workers after Brexit to avoid vacancies in certain industries. As the Press Association reports, Gove claims to have called on Sajid Javid to “look flexibly in how we interpret what a skilled worker is,” and criticised the £30,000 salary threshold for immigrant workers. Giving evidence to Holyrood’s rural economy committee, Gove said that assessing whether a migrant worker qualified as skilled by their salary was not appropriate for all industries. Questioned about “significant vacancies” of approximately 30% in the fish processing sector in Scotland by the SNP’s Stewart Stevenson, Gove argued that the migration advisory committee’s recommendation of the minimum earnings for a worker to be allowed to stay after Brexit would harm businesses who rely on foreign labour. Gove said:
Pitching the level at which you define a skilled worker as someone earning over £30,000 a year wasn’t actually responsive to the particular needs - not just of the fish processing sector - but the food and drink sector overall. One of the points that I have made to the home secretary and others is that we look flexibly at how we interpret what a skilled worker is in line with specific industries.
- Four members of the Welsh assembly - three Ukip AMs and Mark Reckless, who left Ukip in 2017 to join the Conservative group - have defected to the Brexit party. They have asked to be recognised as an official Brexit party group in the assembly. (See 3.29pm.)
- The consumers organisation Which? has criticised Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, for saying chlorinated chicken is not a food safety issue. (See 11.17am.) In a statement Caroline Normand, the Which? director of advocacy, said:
Liam Fox is wrong to suggest chlorinated chicken is not a food safety and standards issue. One of the reasons why food-borne disease rates are so much higher in the US is that these measures are often used as a desperate attempt to make up for widespread safety problems in food production - leaving bacteria like salmonella to run rampant.
Our research has shown British consumers are united in their opposition to lowering food standards as part of any future trade deal - with nearly seven in 10 saying they would be uncomfortable eating chlorine-washed chicken.
Brexit is an opportunity to design a joined up food and farming policy that ensures food is produced to the highest standards - the nation’s health needs must not be used as a bargaining chip that could be given away to facilitate transatlantic trade.
- The government does not know how many British users may have been affected by a “terrifying” WhatsApp security breach, MPs have been told. As the Press Association reports, shadow culture secretary Tom Watson warned a security flaw in the messaging app could be used by states to monitor human rights groups. The digital minister, Margot James, said the likelihood of there being UK victims of the attack is being investigated but said, as yet, there is no information about how many people could have been targeted.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Updated
This is from Anne Milton, the skills minister.
Its national numberacy day so test how good you are at numbers. It’s never too late to improve your skills #nationalnumeracyday
— Anne Milton MP (@AnneMilton) May 15, 2019
Good job it’s not national literacy day ...
Theresa May is now in Paris for an event with world leaders who are agreeing a plan to eliminate terrorist and violent content online. It is called the Christchurch Call because New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has worked up the plan in response to the Christchurch mosque attacks in March.
Here is some new polling on the European elections from Survation.
NEW: UK voting intention for the European Parliament elections. Full tables can be found here: https://t.co/noq7xEgNSx pic.twitter.com/3uFgo4JUiO
— Survation. (@Survation) May 15, 2019
The House of Commons library often produces the best briefings on election results, and it has now published its document (pdf) on the English local elections. If you want a very detailed account, this is what you need.
Here’s a chart from the report.
EU should be willing to delay Brexit again to allow UK time to change its mind, says Poland
The government’s claim that a vote against the withdrawal agreement in June will leave the UK with a choice between no-deal and no Brexit depends on the assumption that the EU will not agree to another article 50 extension. As explained at 9.52am, that assumption is not well founded.
And now it has emerged that Jacek Czaputowicz, Poland’s foreign minister, has said publicly that the EU should be willing to grant another extension to allow time for the UK to change its mind about Brexit. As Reuters reports, in comments released late last night, Czaputowicz said:
From Poland’s point of view, it would be good if Brexit would not happen. It’s a matter of changing the rhetoric to let the Brits rethink their decision.
We should go soft on Britain, give them time, they are still in the EU, let’s give them space to take decision.
Change UK MPs are criticising Labour after Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman refused to rule out the party abstaining on the EU withdrawal agreement bill at a briefing.
This is from Chuka Umunna.
By refusing to rule out abstaining on the 2nd Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the Labour Party is offering Theresa May and her Brexit plan a lifeline. This is the clearest indication yet that the Labour leadership is working with the Tory Government to deliver Brexit. https://t.co/Wti6k0nrZ8
— Chuka Umunna (@ChukaUmunna) May 15, 2019
And this is from Chris Leslie.
So @UKLabour could ABSTAIN on #Brexit?!
— Chris Leslie (@ChrisLeslieMP) May 15, 2019
Long-standing Labour supporters who believe in Britain in Europe now know how their votes on 23rd May will be interpreted. #ChangeUK will fight for remaining in EU, no ifs no buts https://t.co/iCuRQcKQqr
Former Tory Mark Reckless leads bid to form Brexit party group in Welsh assembly
Four Welsh assembly members are seeking to band together to form a Brexit party group.
The four include Mark Reckless, who has been a Tory MP and a Ukip and Tory AM. He has resigned from the Tory group.
The three others, Mandy Jones, Caroline Jones and David Rowlands, have all been Ukip AMs.
They have written to the Llywydd - the assembly’s equivalent of a speaker – notifying her of their wish to form a political group.
Mark Reckless told a press conference on the Senedd steps:
Brexit is being blocked and the Brexit party group in the Welsh assembly from today will be supporting Nigel Farage, supporting the Brexit party in everything that they are doing to protect our democracy and to ensure that Brexit is delivered.
Other parties are not happy.
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said:
We consider this announcement today as having very serious implications for our democracy and our democratic principles here in the Senedd.
The Brexit party did not stand and were not elected in the 2016 elections. They have no democratic mandate and they should not be permitted to form a group nor given access to public resources and funding in the Senedd. To permit them to form a group would make a mockery of our democratic system in Wales. The Senedd is not a playground for Brexiteer chancers, it is the home of Welsh democracy.
We eagerly anticipate the Llywydd’s ruling in the full expectation that she will do the right thing and allow democracy to prevail.
UK will face either no-deal or no Brexit if MPs vote down withdrawal agreement, ministers insist
This is what Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, told the Lords EU committee earlier about how a defeat for the EU withdrawal agreement bill at second reading would leave the UK a choice between a no-deal Brexit and no Brexit. He said:
I think if the House of Commons does not approve the WAB then the Barnier deal is dead in that form and I think the house will have to then address a much more fundamental question between whether it will pursue ... a no-deal option or whether it will revoke.
This is what Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, was also saying this morning (see 11.17am), as well as Downing Street. (See 9.52am.)
Labour sources are playing down suggestions the party might abstain on the EU withdrawal agreement bill, PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield reports.
To be clear, Labour sources are steering well away from suggestions the party could abstain on the WAB. Seems pretty clear that if they can't get a deal with the government in advance, they will vote against it.
— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) May 15, 2019
HuffPost’s Paul Waugh thinks that in the end Labour won’t abstain on the second reading of the EU withdrawal agreement bill.
I may be in a minority, but my own takeaway from post-PMQs briefing by Corbyn spokesman is that Labour will *not* abstain on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill 2nd reading.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 15, 2019
Lunchtime summary
- Theresa May has been offered a possible lifeline ahead of a key vote on her Brexit deal next month after Labour refused to rule out abstaining. The government has announced that MPs will vote on the second reading of the EU withdrawal agreement bill in the first week in June, in what will effectively be the fourth vote on May’s withdrawal agreement. If the government were to lose, that would be fatal to May’s Brexit strategy, and her premiership, and there is no evidence she is winning over the MPs who voted against it last time. (See 9.25am.) But Labour has refused to rule out abstaining in the second reading vote. It is highly unusual for the opposition to abstain on such a major piece of legislation, and if Labour were to adopt this approach (which is nothing more than an option at the moment, based on this afternoon’s briefing), anti-Brexit members would be alarmed. But an abstention would lead to the bill getting a second reading, with the key vote effectively postponed until MPs voted on the amended bill at third reading. Labour’s move came as ministers argued that, if MPs were to vote down the bill, the UK would face a choice between no-deal and no Brexit. (See 11.17am.)
- The lead candidate for Change UK in Scotland’s European parliament contest has switched sides to the Liberal Democrats, in further signs the new party is struggling to consolidate itself or spread successfully across the UK. (See 10.36am.)
- Jeremy Corbyn has used PMQs to attack the “scandal of inequality in modern Britain”. He said:
In Great Yarmouth, one has just been opened for pupils at a school, and last week the department of business established a food bank for its own staff in the building on Victoria Street. Can the prime minister tell us what is going wrong in modern Britain that a government office in the centre of London has a food bank for some of its very low-paid staff to get something to eat?
In response, May argued that inequality was also a problem under Labour and that income inequality had fallen since 2010.
- Penny Mordaunt, the new defence secretary, has said she would like a planned new law offering an amnesty on historical prosecutions for military veterans who served in Iraq, Afghanistan and anywhere else around the world to also cover Northern Ireland.
Here is more on Labour refusing to rule out abstaining on the second reading of the EU withdrawal agreement bill.
From the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar
Labour spokesman twice refuses to say whether Labour could abstain on withdrawal bill. “We’ve made pretty clear we won’t support it,” he says. Not the same as saying they will definitely oppose it though. (But I suspect they will).
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) May 15, 2019
Labour spox says there are “a number of different entrenchment mechanisms” the Government could adopt to allay fears over May’s successor tearing up any cross-party deal. They have been “explored extensively” in talks.
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) May 15, 2019
From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn
This is v significant. Abstaining at 2nd reading gives May a massive lifeline. Brings amendments into play, so it’s game on again IF anything - Customs Union, EFTA, a second referendum etc - can muster a majority.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 15, 2019
From the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves
Is there life in May's Brexit deal yet? Labour 'won't support' it without concessions. But v.senior Lab spokesman refuses six times to rule out abstaining. And a big Labour abstention would be enough to see it clear its first hurdle next month...
— Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) May 15, 2019
This is from my colleague Jessica Elgot.
TSSA General Secretary Manuel Cortes has called on Labour to end Brexit talks with the Government. “I fear we are paying a heavy price on the doorstep for talks which the Government has used as a fig leaf for their Brexit failings.”
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) May 15, 2019
Labour refuses to rule out abstaining on second reading of withdrawal agreement bill
And these are from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.
Labour has ruled out voting for the WAB in its current form. BUT: six times, Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman has just refused to rule out abstaining at 2nd reading if there is no deal with the Govt.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 15, 2019
Spokesman: “We’re not in the business of getting into a car without knowing where it’s going”
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 15, 2019
Journalist: “But you could watch it drive off without standing in its way?”
Spokesman: (a long and very pregnant silence)
Updated
These are from my colleague Heather Stewart.
Downing St spox clarifies last night’s statement on the WAB - says PM intends to hold *second reading* in week beginning 3 June. Appears to signal she will still hold the vote if she doesn’t think she can win it: “We are going to bring the bill forward”
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) May 15, 2019
Spox won’t be drawn on what May will tell the 1922 executive tomorrow - could she promise to step down, even if she loses the vote? “That’s not the world we’re currently in, but clearly the significance of this vote cannot be underestimated” 🧐
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) May 15, 2019
PMQs - Snap verdict
PMQs - Snap verdict: Yesterday, in response to Bridget Prentice’s resignation from the party, Labour issued a statement saying its “bold and popular policies under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership have changed the political conversation in this country” and today he focused on a topic, inequality, where undoubtedly opinion is moving his way. You can argue about how much this is due to Corbyn personally - even that bastion of neoliberalism, the IMF, was warning about inequality in 2014, long before Corbyn became Labour leader - but the announcement this week that the Institute for Fiscal Studies has launched a major review of the consequences of inequality is a clear vindication of one of core political themes. The IFS has always been much more associated with fiscal rectitude than social justice, and if even it recognises there is a problem, Corbyn is winning the argument. A sensible prime minister would recognise this, and engage. But instead May just refused to accept that there is anything wrong. It was an unconvincing performance that saw her easily outmatched by Corbyn.
But it was still all a bit underwhelming - largely because, with May effectively now at the point where she is working out her notice, who cares what she has to say anyway? This became painfully apparent when she had to respond to a question about the next spending round - which is one that will be overseen by her successor. In her exchanges with Corbyn, and the SNP’s Ian Blackford, it felt that May was not even trying particularly hard. But PMQs did throw up two policies issues where the debate over the coming months is likely to intensify. Corbyn proudly defended Labour’s plan to extend its real living wage to under-18s. There is a genuine debate to be had about whether this can be done without increasing youth unemployment, but the arguments did not really get much of a hearing today. Interestingly, May herself chose to raise another Labour proposal - its qualified support for universal basic income. But, again, the rights and wrongs of this were not thrashed out in today’s debate. That will have to wait for another day.
Corbyn used to make a point of using the “letter from an ordinary voter” device to frame an awkward question for the PM. Today it was the Tory Brexiter Peter Bone who tried this. It allowed him to tell May she should resign, but in a manner that discouraged a blunt response (because the activists who supposedly drafted this letter would deserve a polite reply). But Bone just got the usual May brush-off. Even calls for May’s resignation can’t really enliven PMQs very much now.
Updated
Stephen Kerr, a Conservative, says Scottish Tories see May as a trenchant champion of the union. Does May agree the shared prosperity fund will provide an opportunity to strengthen the union? Will it be led by needs, and not Barnettised?
May says the fund will strengthen the union, and it will be led be needs.
And that’s it. PMQs is over.
Peter Bone, a Conservative, says he has got an incredible group of activists in his constituency who have campaigned regularly for the party. But he has a letter from them. They do not like her Brexit deal. And they have lost confidence in May. They want her to resign before the European elections. What message does May have for them?
May praises all Conservatives who campaign. She thanks them for their work. This is a government that wants to deliver Brexit, she says. If MPs had voted for it, the UK would already be out, she says.
Labour’s Albert Owen says a constituent died after being shot with a crossbow outside his house. Will the law on crossbows be reviewed?
May says this is a very worrying story.
Labour’s Louise Haigh asks about a BBC report saying four children have been killed after family courts ordered that abusive parents should have access to them. Will she order a public inquiry?
May says new guidance on this was issued to courts last week. The Ministry of Justice has not seen evidence to justify an inquiry, she says, but she says justice minister will meet Haigh to discuss this.
Neil O’Brien, a Conservative, asks about access to a particular drug on the NHS.
May says she is pleased the NHS and Nice have reached an agreement to make it available.
Labour’s Caroline Flint asks May to welcome a ruling condeming the blacklisting of trade unionists. And does she agree that trade unions play an important role?
May says unions do have an important role to play. The government wants to see workers rights improved, she says.
Antoinette Sandbach, a Conservative, is asking a question about bereaved parents. But she is interrupted by an announcement from a speaker broadcasting into the chamber saying a fire alarm test has been completed.
May says this is a worrying time for British Steel workers. The government struck a deal with the company last month to help it meet its obligations under EU emissions laws.
Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire says the PM says it is her deal, no-deal or no exit. But MPs have voted against her deal and no-deal. So will she admit it is no Brexit or a second referendum.
May says MPs should vote to implement Brexit.
Labour’s Barry Sheerman says he was a passionate Eurosceptic when he became an MP 40 years ago. But he changed his mind when he saw what the EU did for peace and prosperity. Will May tell the truth about Europe, instead of echoing the lies told by Ukip?
May says people voted to leave the EU. The government should implement that, she says.
Updated
Vicky Ford, a Conservative, asks May if she backs the idea of a fund to help universities improve the way they look after students with mental health problems.
May says she will ask the health and education secretaries to look at this.
Rosie Duffield, a Labour MP, asks if May agrees with Labour about the need to scrap tests for pre-teenage children because they generate stress.
May says simple tests that allow judgments to be made about how much children have progressed are useful and should continue.
Rebecca Pow, a Conservative, asks May if she agrees Somerset schools need more funding.
May says the strong economy allows the government to put more money into schools.
The SNP’s Pete Wishart says the Tory backenches look a bit threadbare. The UK is looking a laughing stock. For the sake of the nation, will May go, and let Scotland to too.
May says, judging by Wishart’s question, his charm offensive to become next speaker has started.
Labour’s Bill Esterson says the government says it wants to tackle climate change. But the reality suggests otherwise. It is investing in fossil fuel projects abroad while denying funding to green energy initiatives.
May says the government is investing in the future. She says 99% of solar energy deployed in the UK has been under a Conservative government.
Nigel Evans, a Tory Brexiter, asks May to confirm that if the UK stays in the customs union and the single market, it will not have left the EU.
May says the UK will end free movement, take control of UK law and end the era of vast payments to the EU. And the UK will not pay for market access, she says.
Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, says the three-times-defeated Brexit deal will return in June. Has May done a backroom deal with Labour to sell out Scotland.
May says it is only the SNP that wants to sell out Scotland.
Blackford says the Scottish people do not know what is happening in these secret talks. At the European elections the people of Scotland will make their feelings heard, he says.
May says if the SNP vote for the deal, the UK will leave the EU. If people want a party that is not only a Brexit party, but one that can deliver it, they should vote Conservative.
Nigel Huddleston, a Conservative, asks if education will get more money in the next spending round.
May says the government is committed to improving education for every child.
Corbyn says his question was about food banks in a government office. That suggests in-work poverty is the problem, he says. He says the Trussell Trust handed out 1.6m food parcels last year, and 500,000 of them went to children. Will the government restore the link between inflation and welfare payments?
May says this government introduced the national living wage. The low paid are taking home a lot more as a result.
Corbyn says the IFS says child poverty will rise to over 5m by 2022 because of the government’s policies. The wealth of the richest has inceased by £50bn. But if we do not have enough money to feed people, we have failed as a society. More people are in poverty. When will the government reverse tax giveaways to the rich and end the scandal of inequality in Britain.
May says the top 1% are paying more in income tax than they ever did under Labour. Labour is proposing a welfare payment for everyone. That would mean money for the rich paid for by the poor.
Corbyn asks how it can be fair for executives to be paid so much more than their workers. Young people suffer in particular, which is why Labour will stop young people being paid a lower minimum wage than older people. Does May agree this is right?
May says the Labour policy will cost job. Youth unemployment has fallen by 50%, she says.
Corbyn says the Tories opposed the minimum wage. They said it would cost jobs. Why do the Tories continue to punish young people? Wages are lower than a decade ago, housing costs are soared, and more and more food banks are opening. In Great Yarmouth one has been opened for pupils. And the business department has opened one for its staff, he says.
May says work is the best way to ensure people have a good standard of living. She says Corbyn has not acknowledged that unemployment is at a record law. She says Corbyn implies inequality started in 2010. But who said the last Labour government ensured inequality got worse. Who was it? Corbyn himself, she says.
Corbyn asks about Angus Deaton, the Nobel prize winning economist investigating inequality for the IFS. He says the UK has the second worst record on inequality in the G7.
May says wages are going up.
Jeremy Corbyn pays tribute to Brian Walden, the former Labour MP and interviewer. He was a formidable interviewer, he says. Every MP has said that - but only afterwards.
He also pays tribute to Doris Day, a Hollywood icon and animal rights campaign. He says he is tempted to quote one of her songs - whip crackaway.
He says nine hedge fund tycoons have donated millions to the Conservative party. Is this a government for the many or for the few.
May also pays tribute to Doris Day. She gave many hours of entertainment, she says.
After Corbyn paid tribute to two Labour MPs elected 40 years ago, May says Margaret Thatcher was elected 40 years ago.
On inequality, May says income inequality is down since 2010. The Conservatives want everyone to have a better life. Labour wants to bring people down. The Tories want to bring them up.
Mark Pawsey, a Conservative, asks about a young carer in his constituency.
May says the government has published a cross-government carers’ action plan which is intended to help young carers.
The SNP’s Alan Brown asks about transplant case that went wrong.
May says she will ensure the relevant minister looks at the case.
Theresa May starts by saying she will be going to Paris later for an international summit about stopping terrorists from exploiting the internet.
From BrexitCentral’s Jonathan Isaby
Not sure how it will look on TV, but an extraordinarily sparse turnout on the Tory benches for PMQs today. Lots of visible green leather and no sign of several dozen MPs bunched by the bar of the House. Conservative backbenchers simply aren’t turning up to support May any more.
— Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) May 15, 2019
From the Daily Record’s Torcuil Crichton
May arrives for PMQS with hardly a murmur from her own side, and no wonder, the Tory benches are half empty.
— Torcuil Crichton (@Torcuil) May 15, 2019
This is from PA’s Richard Wheeler.
Loads of empty seats in the Commons. PMQs starts shortly...
— Richard Wheeler (@richard_kaputt) May 15, 2019
PMQs
PMQs is starting soon.
I will post my snap verdict after the whole session is over.
Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.
Here is a question from below the line worth addressing.
The EU and the UK have agreed to postpone Brexit until 31 October, unless the UK passes the withdrawal agreement before than, which would allow an earlier exit.
A British prime minister can unilaterally revoke article 50. But there is no mechanism that would allow a new PM to unilaterally change the 31 October date and trigger an immediate no-deal.
That said, a new PM could try to speed the process up by adopting a policy of non-cooperation with the EU (for example, by withholding monthly payments). Or the government could try to bring forward the date of Brexit in the EU Withdrawal Act, meaning EU law would no longer apply.
But these would be seen as extremely hostile and reckless measures, which would be opposed by parliament and would could cause severe damage to long-term relations with Brussels. Unless Nigel Farage were to become PM before October they are not plausible scenarios, and even he would probably have second thoughts.
However, a new PM could insist on a no-deal Brexit on 31 October even if the EU27 all wanted a further extension. That is because article 50 can only be extended again with UK agreement.
Updated
Turning away from Stephen Barclay for a moment, Penny Mordaunt, the new defence secretary, seems to have made a good impression with the speech she gave this morning.
These are from the BBC’s defence correspondent Jonathan Beale.
New DefSec @PennyMordaunt makes strong case for @RoyalNavy 2 new carriers to deliver “global Britain” ambitions “a mighty symbol of our intent” @RUSI_org
— Jonathan Beale (@bealejonathan) May 15, 2019
Days of taking decades to deliver new warships fo Navy are over says @PennyMordaunt #RUSI
— Jonathan Beale (@bealejonathan) May 15, 2019
DefSec @PennyMorduant says measures to protect British soldiers facing investigations should cover N Ireland veterans
— Jonathan Beale (@bealejonathan) May 15, 2019
Defsec @PennyMordaunt says “I’m not going to be shy about asking for more money” #RUSI
— Jonathan Beale (@bealejonathan) May 15, 2019
Confident and assured first public speech as DefSec by @PennyMordaunt at #RUSI
— Jonathan Beale (@bealejonathan) May 15, 2019
And this is from my colleague John Crace, the Guardian’s sketchwriter.
Penny Morduant in her first speech as defence secretary seemed to think you can build a frigate for £250m. Good luck with that. But at least she didn't tell China to shut up and go away
— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) May 15, 2019
Q: Can you tell us more about the cross-party talks with Labour?
Barclay says they have focused on the Labour demands set out in Jeremy Corbyn’s five points.
Q: Does the government accept that the MEPs elected next week will have to take their seats?
Yes, says Barclay.
He says the government wanted to avoid this.
- Barclay says British MEPs elected next week will take their seats. This means the government has given up hope of trying to pass the Brexit legislation before 2 July, when the new European parliament meets for the first time.
Barclay says, if MPs do not vote for the deal next month, it will be dead.
Then MPs will face a choice between a no-deal Brexit and revoking article 50.
This is the argument we have also heard from Liam Fox this morning (see 11.17am) and from Number 10.
UPDATE: Here is the clip.
Brexit Secretary @SteveBarclay "...If we don't pass the Withdrawal Agreement, then the Phase 2 falls away and we are into a much more fundamental question between a no-deal and a revoke... " pic.twitter.com/K12NHRYO8k
— BrexitCentral (@BrexitCentral) May 15, 2019
Updated
Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay gives evidence to Lords committee
Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, has just started giving evidence to the Lords EU committee.
He says the government is keen to publish the EU withdrawal agreement bill as soon as possible. But it is not possible to lock down the text while the talks with Labour are still going on, he says.
Q: Do you accept MPs need time to see it before the second reading vote in June?
Barclay says he does accept that.
But he says many of the issues raised by the bill have been debated.
He says he published an open letter yesterday (pdf) that he sent to the Tory Brexiter John Redwood addressing some of Redwood’s concerns about the bill.
Liam Fox's IfG Q&A - Summary
Here are the main points from Liam Fox’s Q&A at the Institute for Government.
- Fox, the international development secretary, said that the UK would face either a no-deal Brexit or no Brexit if MPs vote down Theresa May’s deal again next month. Referring to the vote, he said:
There will be an opportunity for MPs to decide, after the local elections, after the European elections, whether they want to vote for Brexit or not.
MPs will need to look and see if they want to continue down a path that inexorably takes us to either the potential of revocation of article 50 or leaving without a deal, and ask if they think that’s the best course either democratically or economically for the UK. MPs will have to face that decision.
Fox is assuming that the EU will not allow a further article 50 extension, which is not a view shared by those who follow Brussels politics closely. (See 9.52am.)
Bloomberg’s Rob Hutton is not convinced by the latest Fox/Number 10 argument.
NEW, from the people who brought you:
— Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) May 15, 2019
"The EU will never extend past March"
and its HILARIOUS sequel:
"The EU will never extend past June"
Comes the nail-biting hit:
"The EU will never extend past October."
Featuring new twists on old favourites like: "Something something Emmanuel Macron"
— Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) May 15, 2019
and:
"Something EU law something ILLEGAL".
- Fox said it would be “self-defeating” for the UK to lower food safety standards after Brexit. He said:
I have said repeatedly that we will not reduce our standards as we move forward ...
There’s a trading reason why we shouldn’t want to change our standards, and that’s because of the impact on our exporters. Barclays did a big global survey of consumers about a year ago now and it showed that 59% of Chinese consumers, about 60% of Indian consumers, would pay more for the same product if they knew it came from the United Kingdom. Why? Because you put that little union flag on it and and it’s regarded as a sign of quality.
We can’t compete globally at the low-cost, low-quality end of the market. We have too many fixed cost in our economy. We need therefore to compete at the high-quality end of the market. And therefore the maintenance of our high standards is part of that guaranteed quality in the goods that we export. It would be self-defeating to see us reduce our standards. There’s no advantage from a trading perspective in doing so.
- But Fox also refused to say the UK should continue to ban US imports of chlorine-washed chicken after Brexit, saying the use of this practice was an animal welfare issue, not a food safety issue. Chlorine-washed chicken was safe to eat, he argued. David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project, was not impressed by Fox’s answer on this.
The continued ambiguity that Fox cannot properly answer on a UK US trade deal. He knows a deal requires we accept US food standards, but tries to explain these are not lower or an animal welfare issue, either of which are questionable. https://t.co/xuNUenulst
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) May 15, 2019
Updated
Lone parents and their children have lost challenges against the government’s benefit cap at the UK’s highest court, the Press Association reports. Supreme court justices, sitting in London on Wednesday, rejected the appeals in cases brought against the work and pensions secretary over the lawfulness of the measure by a majority of five to two.
This is what David Macdonald is saying about why he has abandoned Change UK, despite being their lead candidate in Scotland for the European elections, and is now backing the Lib Dems. (See 10.36am.)
[After a] great deal of reflection on the political landscape we are facing in Scotland at present, I have come to the point where I have realised I must do what is best for the future of this country before anything else.
If things continue as they are the remain vote will split in Scotland and put at risk the representation that supporters of remaining in the European Union so collectively desire.
For that reason I have decided to end my candidacy for Change UK effective immediately and I am now calling for those in favour of remaining in the European Union, including all supporters of Change UK in Scotland, to do what is best for our collective voice in Europe and to support the Scottish Liberal Democrats in the upcoming European election, to better ensure that they gain representation to secure a seat in these European elections.
Change UK's lead candidate in Scotland defects to Lib Dems
The lead candidate for Change UK in Scotland’s European parliament contest has switched sides to the Liberal Democrats, in further signs the new party is struggling to consolidate itself or spread successfully across the UK.
David Macdonald, an independent councillor in the wealthy district of East Renfrewshire near Glasgow, is expected to confirm shortly he has resigned from Change UK in a joint appearance with Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, near Holyrood.
The Scottish Lib Dems said Macdonald will “endorse the Liberal Democrats as the party of remain.” Macdonald, a restaurateur, appears to have deleted his Change UK election Twitter account @davidchangeuk.
Change UK have made negligible impact in Scotland, and his defection will likely quash any suggestions it will greatly affect the results on May 23. It has been planning to stage its first and only European elections rally in Edinburgh this Saturday but no venue has been announced.
Rennie will hope Macdonald’s switch will boost the Lib Dems’ chances in the election. A recent YouGov poll for the Times put Change UK neck and neck with the Lib Dems in Scotland at 6% each, although there is little expectation the Lib Dems are popular enough to win one of the six Scottish seats on offer.
Nikki da Costa, who used to work as director of legislative affairs for Theresa May at Number 10, says if the EU withdrawal agreement bill does get through its second reading, the government will have to accept whatever amendments get added.
So WAB is coming 3June. It’s a gamble on second reading but more than that I suspect intention is to gamble on amdts if it survives, and accept bill in whatever form it emerges so long as it emerges. DExEU will do best to nurture the Bill, but politically it has no protection. 1/
— Nikki da Costa (@nmdacosta) May 15, 2019
Sometimes you have strategy of knocking off barnacles (tricky amdts) at later stages, but I suspect they’ll just leave them. If it gets through it’s going to be legal equivalent to an archaeological relic, page by page illustrating state of this govt and parl for generations 2/
— Nikki da Costa (@nmdacosta) May 15, 2019
Feeling for the WAB team and all those involved. “We who are about to die salute you”?
— Nikki da Costa (@nmdacosta) May 15, 2019
Fox says lowering food standards after Brexit would be bad for UK exports
Q: The US has published their objectives for a trade deal with the UK. They want the UK to relax EU-style food standards. Are you happy with that?
Fox says he has said until he is “blue in the face” that the UK will not reduce its standards after Brexit. It has legislation that protects food standards. That will not change.
And there are trading reasons for this too. A Barclays survey shows that a majority of Indian and Chinese consumers would pay more for British produce, because they see it as high quality. The UK cannot compete on low standards. There would be no advantage lowering standards.
- Fox says lowering food standards after Brexit would be bad for UK exports.
Q: What about chlorine-washed chicken?
Fox says that is a different argument. That is about animal welfare, not food safety.
From the BBC’s Norman Smith
A little light reading for MPs......am told the WAB will be published next before recess.
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) May 15, 2019
The WAB is the EU withdrawal agreement bill. It is said to be half an inch thick, which makes it an enormous piece of legislation, which explains Smith’s joke about “light reading”.
Q: What would be an acceptable result in the European elections? And would you consider voting for the Brexit party in the Euros?
Fox says he will be voting for the Conservatives, for various reasons.
MEPs will have to deal with a range of issues, he says. He says the Brexit party is a single issue party.
And anything that weakens the Conservatives is good for Jeremy Corbyn, he says.
On expectations, he says he is a former Tory chairman. Anything he said on this would be expectation management, or evasive.
And he says the question has reminded him to send in his postal vote today.
Liam Fox says UK will face either no-deal or no Brexit if MPs do not vote for May's deal
Q: There seems to be little chance of the government winning the Brexit vote in June. So is this just a last throw of the dice? And if Theresa May loses, will she has to stand down?
Fox says MPs will have to decide whether they want to take the UK down a path that would lead to either a no-deal Brexit, or article 50 being revoked. MPs will have to take that decision.
- Fox says UK will face either no-deal or no Brexit if MPs do not vote for Theresa May’s deal in June.
This is also the line being briefed by Number 10. (See 9.52am.)
UPDATE: Here is the quote.
Bit more of Liam Fox warning to MPs on Brexit legislation coming next month 👇👇 pic.twitter.com/uZ9cpaDlQp
— Nick Eardley (@nickeardleybbc) May 15, 2019
Updated
Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, is now taking questions at the Institute for Government.
Q: Your department deals with trade deals outside the EU. But the central trade deal will be with the EU, and your department is not involved in those talks. When will you get involved.
Fox says talks are currently going on about how to create a “single architecture”, so that there is not a divergence between the trade regime with the EU and the trade regime with the rest of the world.
Q: What if the UK stays in the customs union?
Fox says he does not want to see the UK stay in a customs union.
He says other countries would not want to sign trade deals with the UK if it were in a temporary customs union with the EU, and they did not know when it was going to end.
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, was on the Today programme this morning. He said that he was a “hardliner” on Brexit. But he insisted that the Lib Dems were not blocking progress on the Brexit legislation. They would be happy to vote for the deal, provided it was subject to a confirmatory referendum, he said.
He also said that he thought three options should be put to the public in the referendum: the deal, a no-deal Brexit and remain.
"I'm a hardliner and I'm clear about where we stand."
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) May 15, 2019
Lib Dem leader @vincecable says he would support a Brexit deal if it's put to a public vote. "Now that the government is running out of other options, that's where we're going to end up" #r4today | https://t.co/fIA6JziOPJ pic.twitter.com/5phFoD3VcH
According to the BBC’s Norman Smith, Number 10 is now arguing that, if Theresa May’s Brexit plan gets defeated in early June, the UK will face either a no-deal Brexit at the end of October or article 50 being revoked.
No 10 say if Mrs May's deal is defeated - UK set for No Deal or Revoke as EU will not grant a further extension after Oct 31.
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) May 15, 2019
This argument is based on the assumption that the EU would not agree to a further extension of article 50. But EU leaders have never said that explicitly, and the conventional wisdom in Brussels is that a further extension, although not guaranteed, is certainly very possible.
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, has just published a very good paper addressing exactly this question. Here is an extract.
EU officials don’t trust British MPs to prevent no deal and some of them think it could happen by accident. For example, what if a Boris Johnson-type figure became prime minister in October, and he or she was determined to leave without a deal? That person would refuse to ask for an extension and Parliament would not have time to bring down the government and prevent no deal before October 31st (to which the counter-argument is that no prime minister committed to a no deal Brexit could ever win a parliamentary majority for forming a government in the first place).
Some senior figures in Brussels expect the British to receive an extension till June 2020. That is the latest possible date for the EU to agree on its next seven-year budget plan, the multiannual financial framework that starts in 2021, without serious problems arising. In the long run the UK would have to go for an election or referendum or no deal – or possibly a different kind of Brexit, said one figure. But would not Macron veto further extensions? “No, he could not resist the pressure from all the others in the room to compromise.”
Another official agrees that the 27 are unlikely to force the UK out by refusing a further extension, but adds that this could change if the British elected a fearsome swarm of Faragist MPs in the European elections. Similarly, a new government led by a hard-line eurosceptic committed to starting fights with the EU could lead the patience of some member-states to snap.
My colleague Jennifer Rankin in Brussels also thinks a further article 50 extension is more likely than not.
Will the EU refuse a Brexit extension next time? Way too early to tell, but my bet wd be on further delay, rather than kicking UK out.
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) May 15, 2019
Wildcard: Tusk and Juncker, who argued for longer extension last time, will both be on way out in October.
Liam Fox speaks at Institute for Government
Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, is giving a speech at the Institute for Government.
There is a live feed here.
He started by saying trade policy was only a relatively small part of what his department does (accounting for 20% of staff) and he is now summarising how his department promotes trade.
I will post any highlights from the speech and the Q&A.
May to face MPs as rebels warn she is still facing defeat in Brexit vote in early June
After weeks of procrastination, Theresa May has now announced a date - or rather, three possible dates - for what will be her final attempt to get MPs to vote for her withdrawal agreement. It will be the second reading of the EU withdrawal agreement bill, and it will take place in the week beginning Monday 3 June. But the whitsun recess does not end until the following day, and so the vote will probably take place on either Tuesday 4 June, Wednesday 5 June or Thursday 6 June.
Here is the Guardian’s overnight story.
So May has three weeks to construct a majority. But it is not there now. Last night the Labour party made it clear that it would not support the bill unless the government strikes a deal with the party over the Brexit outcome it wants and, in a statement, Jeremy Corbyn that was still some way off. The DUP, May’s supposed confidence and supply partners, said they remained opposed to what was on offer. And the smaller opposition parties, the SNP, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru, also expressed their continued opposition to the plan.
👇👇👇 pic.twitter.com/XkeUoPNol6
— DUP (@duponline) May 14, 2019
And what about the 34 Conservative who voted against the agreement at the last debate (when other rebels had given in)? Six of them are pro-Europeans, but the rest were hardline Brexiters and one of them, Owen Paterson, told the Today programme this morning that he remained opposed to what was on offer. He said:
Sadly, we will vote against it again, as the DUP put out a statement, because it doesn’t change the essential nature of the withdrawal agreement, which is unacceptable we will have laws imposed on us by 27 different countries where we are not involved.
And, very importantly for the DUP and us, it potentially breaks up the United Kingdom by creating a new entity called UKNI [UK Northern Ireland] and that means you could end with Scotland wanting to follow and that is really dangerous for the union.
Tory MP @OwenPaterson will vote against the PM's deal again. He says the UK should ask the EU for a free trade deal otherwise threaten a no-deal Brexit #r4today
— BBC Radio 4 Today (@BBCr4today) May 15, 2019
What is a free trade deal: https://t.co/9I3W3E0vYz pic.twitter.com/xJGzLq5llL
We’ll hear from May herself at PMQs.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.05am: Greg Clark, the business secretary, gives a speech at the FT Future of the Car summit.
9.30am: Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, gives a speech at the Institute for Government.
10am: Penny Mordaunt, the new defence secretary, gives a speech at the First Sea Lord’s Sea Power Conference.
11.10am: Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, gives evidence to the Lords EU committee.
12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.
2.30pm: Google, YouTube and Instagram give evidence to the Commons culture committee.
4pm: Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, holds a walkabout in Merthyr Tydfil.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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Updated
Hi Andrew,
Apologies if you've answered this before.
If a hardliner were to replace Theresa May as PM (and whatever internal UK parliament stuff were needed actually happened), could the UK leave without a deal before October 29? Or does the extension preclude this?
Not that I think this should happen, nor that "internal UK parliament stuff" actually could happen. Just wondering if EU countries are protected from British insanity.