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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

Brexit: Labour will back amendment for second referendum, says Corbyn – as it happened

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn leaves his home in London on Monday.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn leaves his home in London on Monday. Photograph: Vickie Flores/EPA

Closing summary

Here’s a summary of the evening’s events:

  • Labour announced the party would back a second referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU if the prime minister declined to adopt its Brexit stance. The party said it would table an amendment on Tuesday that, if passed, would require Theresa May to adhere to its five tests. It also said it would back moves to prevent a no-deal Brexit.
  • Should that be rejected by MPs, as is expected, Labour said it would back a second referendum. The party said it would “put forward or support an amendment in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit”.
  • Amid some confusion over what would be on offer in that referendum, the Labour frontbencher Emily Thornberry said voters would be given the option of remaining in the EU or rubberstamping May’s deal. Thornberry said both she and Jeremy Corbyn would be campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU under those circumstances.
  • You can read a summary of the day’s earlier events here.

We’re going to close down this live blog now, so thanks for reading and for the comments. If you’d like to read yet more, my colleague Jessica Elgot has the full story:

Here’s a little more on those comments from the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry. She was asked by Channel 4 News if there would be no option to remain on a Labour-backed second referendum. She replied:

No, no, no, no. What I’m saying is that we would have a referendum on whatever deal it is that may or may not pass through Parliament and we would be saying to people: ‘Do you want this, or do you want to remain?’

Asked on which side she would be in that referendum, she said:

It’s no secret I think that it’s in Britain’s interests for us to remain in the European Union. I’ve always thought so and I continue to think so. And so, if there is a vote of that sort, I would certainly be campaigning for us to remain.

She added: “yeah, of course” when asked if, in that case, she would be on the same side of the referendum campaign as her party leader, Jeremy Corbyn. And, asked to clarify if she was saying explicitly that Corbyn would campaign to remain in the European Union, Thornberry said:

If it’s a choice between a disastrous Tory Brexit or no deal and remaining, then that is what we will have to do.

Similar to the Lib Dems, the SNP is calling on Corbyn to explicitly confirm that remain would be an option in a Labour-backed second referendum. Its Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, said:

Scotland did not vote for Brexit and we must not be dragged out of the EU against our will. Remaining is by far the best deal of all – and it is the only way to protect jobs and living standards.

Emily Thornberry says Labour would back remain

The Labour frontbencher, Emily Thornberry, has said remain should be an option on a second referendum and, more than that, Labour would campaign for it.

The Conservative party chairman, Brandon Lewis, has said Corbyn’s position makes it clear the Labour leader wants to “betray the will of the British people and ignore the biggest democratic vote in our nation’s history”.

Corbyn’s Labour have ripped up their promise to respect the referendum result and are now pursuing a divisive second referendum that would take us back to square one. Once again it’s clear: Jeremy Corbyn is using Brexit to play his own political games.

Instead of working to thwart Brexit at this critical stage, Jeremy Corbyn should put the country’s interest before his party’s – by backing a deal that respects and delivers on the result of the referendum.

The Guardian columnist, Polly Toynbee, is welcoming of Corbyn’s announcement this evening – but urges him now to go the whole hog.

The defection of eight Labour MPs seems to have had a big effect, breaking the obstinacy of the leadership team. Today the pressure mounted further, with deputy leader Tom Watson talking of setting up a social democratic grouping, and Momentum’s chair, Jon Lansman, openly criticising the leadership over antisemitism. It seems to have finally jolted Corbyn into action. A deepening divide between shadow chancellor John McDonnell and Corbyn over a range of issues has been brewing, but failure to back the Kyle/Wilson plan would be the breaking point for many in Labour, with frontbenchers among those poised to resign. MPs have shown me an avalanche of emails from local party members resigning over Corbyn’s Brexit feebleness.

Plaid Cymru’s Brexit spokesman, Hywel Williams, has accused Jeremy Corbyn of having to be “dragged kicking and screaming” towards a second referendum with remain as an option.

But still, the Labour frontbench can’t bring itself to do so without pointless, time-wasting conditions. It almost seems as if Labour will only back a People’s Vote when it is too late.

For all that we know, Labour may not even back a referendum that includes the option to remain, despite it having up to a 10-point lead in the most recent polls. This is yet another attempt to cover up the cracks created by its internal divisions, but more prevarication won’t do that.

Labour has already given up valuable time for navel gazing when it should and could have been working constructively across party lines to deliver the solution that so many want to see.

Again, this week, Labour will push for its failed renegotiation option. Its intransigence is exasperating. We can only hope then, that its promise of backing a ‘public vote’ – that includes the option to remain – will be a real one come the meaningful vote next month.

While Williams is not the only person to express reservations about what options would be on a Corbyn-backed referendum, it is worth reading his comments in the context of the previous post – as well as this one.

Updated

The chairman of the Leave Means Leave campaign group, John Longworth, described the Labour move as a “cowardly decision from a man who should never be trusted with the premiership of this country”. He said:

Jeremy Corbyn claims he’s upholding ‘conference policy’ by supporting a public vote – Mr Corbyn, your Labour MPs were not voted for upon this basis. Your Labour voters did not vote for you upon this basis. Almost 40% of them voted to leave the EU in 2016 and back in 2017 you made a pledge in your manifesto to honour this result.

As we noted earlier, Corbyn’s announcement today is consistent with Labour’s conference motion from last September. And it is for precisely that reason that Luciana Berger, one of the MPs who resigned from Labour last week, is unimpressed by it:

Another of them, Angela Smith, was somewhat more upbeat, saying she would be delighted if Labour backed a second referendum with remain as an option and telling Sky News Corbyn’s move “looks like a very positive development”.

Corbyn is addressing the meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, where similar concerns are being raised:

There has been some discussion about whether or not Labour’s second referendum, should it come to pass, would include remain as an option.

It’s worth noting at this point that the shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, has consistently backed such a move – including as recently as last month, when he told a Fabian Society event:

I don’t think it is any secret I firmly believe there should be a remain option – and there has to be a genuine leave option.

The Lib Dem leader, Vince Cable, has said he will work with Labour on the plan – but made clear any referendum must include that remain option.

We have long argued it is the right and logical thing to do for the people to have the final say on Brexit. We welcome any MPs who share this crucial aim.

Updated

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, also welcomed Corbyn’s move, saying:

It is the right decision for London – and for the whole country – to give the public their say for the first time on a final Brexit deal.

I hope members of parliament will support this move, which is vital to protect jobs and growth. The prime minister must now withdraw article 50 to prevent Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal within weeks and to give us time to sort out her mess.

Updated

Corbyn said Labour’s action is consistent with a motion the party backed at its party conference in September last year. This seems to be correct. Here’s the relevant section of the composite motion:

Should parliament vote down a Tory Brexit deal or the talks end in no deal, conference believes this would constitute a loss of confidence in the government. In these circumstances, the best outcome for the country is an immediate general election that can sweep the Tories from power.

If we cannot get a general election, Labour must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote. If the government is confident in negotiating a deal that working people, our economy and communities will benefit from they should not be afraid to put that deal to the public.

Labour has said this evening that the second referendum portion of its move is aimed at preventing Theresa May from forcing through either her deal as it stands or no deal – not necessarily at stopping Brexit in any form.

If the prime minister were to adopt a Brexit stance Labour felt it could back, there would be no push for a second referendum.

The shadow Brexit secretary put it like this:

Updated

The prominent remain-supporting Labour MP, David Lammy, has welcomed the move. Lammy, who campaigns for a second referendum with the People’s Vote group, said:

Even if MPs can agree some sort of deal, it would be wrong to force it on the British people when we now know so many of the promises made in 2016 have been broken and any deal will be worse than the one we’ve already got inside the EU.

These are dangerous times for the Labour party and our country. Jeremy Corbyn is today taking the first step to reunite our party by showing he is listening to our voters and members on this, the biggest issue of our time. But it is also crucial when food prices are already rising and car manufacturers are scrapping investment that we provide the clarity needed to plan for the future.

Here’s the full text of the amendment Corbyn intends to table on Tuesday:

That this house instructs ministers

(a) to negotiate with the EU for changes to the political declaration to secure:

i. A permanent and comprehensive customs union with the EU;

ii. Close alignment with the single market underpinned by shared institutions and obligations;

iii. Dynamic alignment on rights and protections;

iv. Commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes, including in areas such as the environment, education, and industrial regulation; and

v. Unambiguous agreement on the detail of future security arrangements, including access to the European Arrest Warrant and vital shared databases;

(b) To introduce primary legislation to give statutory effect to this negotiating mandate

Updated

Corbyn says Labour’s move will be two-pronged. He will first seek to force Theresa May to adopt his party’s approach to Brexit by tabling an amendment to the government’s motion. His five demands are, in his words:

  • A permanent and comprehensive customs union with the EU.
  • Close alignment with the single market underpinned by shared institutions and obligations.
  • Dynamic alignment on rights and protections.
  • Commitments on participation in EU agencies and funding programmes, including in areas such as the environment, education, and industrial regulation.
  • Unambiguous agreements on the detail of future security arrangements, including access to the European Arrest Warrant and vital shared databases.

And he also plans to announce his support for an amendment taking no deal off the table to the parliamentary Labour Party this evening, as well as saying Labour will “put forward or support an amendment in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit”.

He’ll tell Labour MPs:

The prime minister is recklessly running down the clock, in an attempt to force MPs to choose between her botched deal and a disastrous no deal. We cannot and will not accept.

Last week, after our visit to talk to EU officials and leaders in Brussels and Madrid, no one can be in any doubt Labour’s alternative Brexit plan is serious and credible. We are convinced our alternative, which puts jobs and living standards first, could command support in the House of Commons, bring people who voted leave and remain together, and be negotiated with the EU.

That’s why we will be putting down an amendment in parliament this week setting out Labour’s plan: For a comprehensive customs union with a UK say; close alignment with the single market; guarantees on rights and standards; protection for Britain’s role in EU agencies; and a security agreement which guarantees access to the European arrest warrant and vital shared databases. And we will be calling for legislation to underpin this mandate.

We will also be backing the Cooper-Letwin amendment to rule out a no deal outcome. One way or another, we will do everything in our power to prevent no deal and oppose a damaging Tory Brexit based on Theresa May’s overwhelmingly rejected deal.

That’s why, in line with our conference policy, we are committed to also putting forward or supporting an amendment in favour of a public vote to prevent a damaging Tory Brexit being forced on the country.

Updated

Corbyn: Labour to back second referendum

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, says the party will seek a second referendum to prevent what he calls a “damaging Tory Brexit”.

Updated

Hello, Kevin Rawlinson here, taking over from Andrew Sparrow because...

Afternoon summary

  • Downing Street has said it will publish previously unseen cabinet papers setting out the dangers of a no-deal Brexit. (See 4.11am.)
  • Sajid Javid, the home secretary, has refused to tell MPs if he contacted the Bangladeshi government before deciding to remove British citizenship from Shamima Begum. During Home Office questions, he defended his decision and said it would not leave the 19-year-old - who joined Islamic State in Syria in 2015 - stateless despite Bangladesh saying there is “no question” of her being allowed into the country.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Sarah Newton, the minister for disabled people, has apologised after it emerged an extra 30,000 ill and disabled benefit claimants could have been underpaid. As the Press Association reports, Newon told the Commons the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) now believes 210,000 people could be due arrears payments as a result of failings linked to the transfer of people from older incapacity benefits to Employment and Support Allowance (Esa), an increase from the previous estimate of 180,000. She said she “wished this had never happened” but officials are “working at pace” to ensure people receive the cash they are entitled to.

This is from ITV’s Paul Brand.

The government is being urged to end “failed” privatised probation contracts and bring them back into public ownership, the Press Association reports. Three trade unions have written to the justice secretary, David Gauke, urging him to “abandon” the contracts when they run out next year. Unison, the GMB and Napo highlighted the recent collapse of Working Links, which had three contracts, saying the government should have stepped in when it was clear the company was in trouble.

This is from Stefan Rousseau, the Press Association’s chief political photographer.

Readers sometimes ask how much Brexit has already cost the UK. The People’s Vote campaign has partially answered that, with research published today saying the costs include a £40bn+ annual hit to the economy, at least £14bn a year in lost tax revenues, and an extra £404 a year cost to the average household, caused by the impact of inflation on bills.

Gavin Shuker, the former Labour MP, will be the convener of the new Independent Group of MPs, but not its leader, ITV’s Carl Dinnen reports.

The government may promise its assessment of the impact of a no-deal Brexit promised to Anna Soubry (see 11.07am) as early as tomorrow, HuffPost’s Paul Waugh reports.

Updated

Anti Brexit campaigners outside Westminster.
Anti Brexit campaigners outside Westminster. Photograph: Vickie Flores/EPA

Anne Marie Morris, a Tory Brexiter, told the World at One that she thought Theresa May would end up proposing a Brexit involving the UK staying in a customs union with the EU. Morris said she would be “horrified” if this happened. She explained:

In my view, the prime minister is frankly listening to herself and her close advisers.

Theresa is her own woman - we’ve all seen that - and she is determined to deliver what she wants. I’ll be brutally honest, what I believe she wants is a customs union.

My real fear is that what she will do is when she continues to fail - which she almost inevitably was going to, because Europe will not deliver - to get a deal with Europe, she will come back and say ‘The only thing left, chaps, is a customs union’.

I would be horrified and I do not want that left to the last minute.

The 11 MPs who belong to the Independent Group held their first private meeting as a group at Westminster this afternoon. We have not had a read-out yet from what they discussed, although it is understood that they were not planning to elect a leader.

The Independent Group of MPs hold their first meeting. Former Conservative MPs Sarah Wollaston (3rd from left, 3L), Heidi Allen (5L), and Anna Soubry (3R) sit with their colleagues former Labour MPs Joan Ryan (L), Chris Leslie (3L), Chuka Umunna (4L), Gavin Shuker (C), Luciana Berger (5R), Angela Smith (4R), Mike Gapes (2R) and Ann Coffey.
The Independent Group of MPs hold their first meeting. Former Conservative MPs Sarah Wollaston (3rd from left, 3L), Heidi Allen (5L), and Anna Soubry (3R) sit with their colleagues former Labour MPs Joan Ryan (L), Chris Leslie (3L), Chuka Umunna (4L), Gavin Shuker (C), Luciana Berger (5R), Angela Smith (4R), Mike Gapes (2R) and Ann Coffey. Photograph: John Stillwell/AFP/Getty Images

On the World at One Michael Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister and one of the most prominent pro-Europeans in the Conservative party, said that cabinet ministers like Amber Rudd should be willing to resign to prevent a no-deal Brexit. That is what he would do, he said. He went on:

I believe it is in the national interest that they should.

Every indication of this battle - which is so serious and so prolonged - is that the right wing will not compromise and the only way to bring a measure of balance to it is to play the same ruthless game that they are playing.

You have to ask yourself why you are in politics. What’s it for? What do you believe in? What sort of person are you?

Overwhelmingly for me, the answer has to be ‘I have views about this country, I have a philosophy and approach, I believe in certain principles and they - whilst usefully combined often with the Conservative party - are supreme and on this issue I cannot go along with the tactics and techniques being used to try to blackmail us into a bad deal for Britain’.

Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, has written to all the party’s MPs and peers to say that from now on he will be “logging and monitoring” all complaints of anti-Semitic abuse and bullying, the Press Association reports. In an email, Watson asked Labour parliamentarians to inform him of any complaints of antisemitism so he can ensure that they are shared with Jeremy Corbyn and other leading figures. He said that any concerns about antisemitism should be raised with the party’s general secretary, Jennie Formby. But he added:

As your deputy leader, I am deeply alarmed at the amount of abuse that colleagues are receiving from within the party.

In order to properly assess and monitor the scale of the problem, I would like to see any issue or complaint you raise with the general secretary.

From now on, my team will be logging and monitoring all complaints. I will ensure that this information is shared with both Jeremy, the shadow cabinet and colleagues on the national executive committee.

Tom Watson
Tom Watson Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Last week was originally supposed to be a Commons recess, but the government cancelled the half-term parliamentary break, seemingly because Downing Street concluded that the public would take a dim view of MPs being away while the Brexit crisis was unresolved. During the week no significant debates took place. But the cancelled recess still cost the taxpayer up to £400,000, CityAM’s Owen Bennett reports.

Sajid Javid, the home secretary, is taking questions in the Commons. Earlier today he announced that he was banning Hezbollah.

Here is my colleague Patrick Wintour’s story with the full details.

According to ITV’s Robert Peston, ministers minded to vote for the Yvette Cooper amendment are not impressed by reports that Theresa May will try to buy them off with the promise of a vote for a two-month article 50 extension. (See 2.31pm.) My initial assessment was that this probably would be enough to hobble Cooper, but I may be wrong. A lot will depend on what May actually says (and how she handles questions like, ‘And what will happen if there is still no deal by the end of May?’) We will find out more when May makes a statement in the Commons on Brexit tomorrow.

According to Joe Murphy and Nicholas Cecil in the latest Evening Standard splash, Theresa May will promise MPs that they will get the chance to vote for an article 50 extension if the Commons does not pass a Brexit deal by 12 March. They report:

The prime minister is set to bow to cabinet rebels by promising a new Commons vote on delaying Brexit.

Downing Street is privately offering to make time for a vote in a fortnight allowing for a two-month delay beyond March 29 in return for them calling off a rebellion on Wednesday.

A postponement of Britain’s withdrawal would be a humiliating climbdown for Theresa May, whose spokesman continued to insist this morning that it was “not something she wants to do”. But a top cabinet minister warned that it was not “acceptable” to risk crashing out.

This effectively amounts to Downing Street accepting the Simon Hart amendment. (See 9.12am.)

Why would Number 10 agree to this, when May clearly believes that extending article 50 on its own would not solve her Brexit dilemma? (See 1.57pm.) Well, because if she did not, there would be a very strong chance of MPs passing the Yvette Cooper amendment on Wednesday. And if government ministers voted for it, as many have suggested they would, May would either have to sack them en masse, or accept that she had lost control of her government.

If the Standard is right (and it normally is), and May does make this offer, the majority for the Cooper amendment would probably evaporate. In fact, since Cooper would have achieved much of what she wanted, the amendment could even end up getting pulled.

Tory Brexiters are unhappy about any talk of extending article 50. But they are much more alarmed by Cooper than by Hart, because Cooper would enable MPs to pass legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit that could become a Trojan horse for a lengthy article 50 extension, or conceivably (because the bill could be amended) another referendum.

May says MPs could be asked to approve revised Brexit deal before EU leaders have agreed it

Here are the main points from Theresa May’s press conference.

  • May said that MPs could be asked to approve a revised Brexit deal before it has been agreed with the EU. Asked if EU leaders would have to agree changes to the withdrawal deal first, or if the “meaningful vote” could come first, she replied:

On the procedural point, it is possible to do it either way.

This is significant because it allows her to sidestep what would otherwise be a procedural quandary: MPs will only vote for the deal if there are changes, but the EU will only agree changes if it knows that they will be enough to secure a majority in the Commons. May’s answer makes the scenario being floated earlier by Tom McTague (see 11.24am) sound ever more plausible.

  • She refused to say whether or not she would sack ministers who vote for the Cooper amendment on Wednesday. (See 1.17pm.) It is thought that a dozen or more ministers, including some in cabinet, could defy the whip and vote for the amendment, which is designed to allow MPs to legislate to block a no-deal Brexit. Asked if she would force ministers to resign if they wanted to vote for the amendment, May refused to engage with the question, saying that at this point it is not even clear what amendments will be called. (Anyone who seriously thinks the Cooper amendment won’t get has a poor understanding of John Bercow, the speaker.) May also refused to answer a question about whether the passing of the Cooper amendment could increase the chances of her deal being approved by 12 March. (See 1.15pm.)
  • She refused to say whether, in the event of MPs not passing her deal, she would opt for no deal, or an extension of article 50.
  • May said she had encountered “a real determination” amongst EU leaders to achieve a deal. In her opening remarks she said:

Of course, I’ve also had the opportunity to discuss Brexit while I’ve been here. I held good meetings with President Tusk, Prime Minister Conte, Chancellor Merkel, Prime Minister Rutte, President Juncker and the taoiseach.

There is still more work to do, and my team will be in Brussels tomorrow working on the legally binding assurances that the UK Parliament needs in relation to the backstop.

But what I have sensed in all of my conversations with my fellow leaders both here in Sharm El Sheikh and in recent days is a real determination to find a way through which allows the UK to leave the EU in a smooth and orderly way with a deal.

  • She restated her opposition to delaying article 50, saying “a delay in this process does not deliver a decision in parliament”. She said:

An extension to article 50, a delay in this process, doesn’t deliver a decision in parliament, it doesn’t deliver a deal. All it does is precisely what the word ‘delay’ says. Any extension of article 50 isn’t addressing the issues.

  • She restated her belief that achieving Brexit by 29 March was “within our grasp”. As stated earlier (see 9.12am), this implicitly accepts a much higher degree of uncertainty about Brexit happening on time than May has previously acknowledged.
  • She refused to say when the UK would allow direct flights to Sharm El Sheikh to continue.
Theresa May arriving for her press conference at Sharm El Sheikh
Theresa May arriving for her press conference at Sharm El Sheikh Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Updated

May’s press conference is over.

“Highlights” is not exactly the word, but I will post a summary of the main things she said in a moment.

May refuses to say ministers will be sacked if they vote for Cooper amendment

Q: If ministers want to vote for the Cooper amendment, will they have to resign?

May says she has not tabled the motion yet. MPs do not know what it will say, and they do not know what amendments will be called.

When the meaningful vote takes place, MPs will have to decide if they want Brexit to happen “in a smooth and orderly way”.

  • May refuses to say ministers will be sacked if they vote for the Cooper amendment.

Q: Would it not be helfpul for you to have the Cooper amendment in place, so that MPs are incentivised to vote for your deal on 12 March, before MPs vote (under the Cooper plan) to extend article 50.

May says the “meaningful vote” she has promised could come before 12 March. It does not have to be on that date, she says.

She says she hopes MPs will vote for a deal.

May says she is working to deliver what parliament asked her to - to address the concerns about the backstop.

She says her team will be back in Brussels tomorrow.

She says it is within her grasp to get a deal by 29 March.

(I think you can guess where this is going ...)

Q: [From ITV’s Robert Peston] None of your ministers think you can get a deal through by 29 March. Why are you so resistant to delaying article 50?

May says a delay does not deliver a deal. All it does is what the word “delay” says. She says she thinks it is “within our grasp” to get a deal by 29 March. She repeats the phrase. That is where all her energies are focused.

On Brexit, she says she has had good meetings with EU leaders here.

She says the British team will hold further talks in Brussels tomorrow.

She says she has found a real determination to ensure that UK can leave the EU with a deal.

Theresa May is speaking now.

She starts by talking about the non-Brexit discussions she has had at the summit.

Theresa May's press conference

Theresa May is due to give her own press conference in Sharm El Sheikh in the next few minutes.

Tusk says EU would back extending article 50 if Brexit deal is not passed soon

This is what Donald Tusk said in full when he was asked about the possibility of article 50 being extended. He said:

In order to put an end to speculation, I can say first of all that Prime Minister May and I discussed yesterday a lot of issues, including the legal and procedural context of a potential extension. For me it is absolutely clear that there is no majority in the House of Commons to approve a deal. We will face an alternative: a chaotic Brexit, or extension.

The less time there is until the 29 March, the greater is the likelihood of an extension. And this is an objective fact; not our intention, not our plan, but an objective fact.

I believe that in the situation we are in an extension would be a rational solution. But Prime Minister May still believes that she is able to avoid this scenario.

And I can assure you, and I did it also yesterday during my meeting with Prime Minister May, that no matter in which scenario it will be, all the [EU] 27 will show maximum understanding and goodwill.

I have listened to the tape several times, and it is clear to me that Tusk said: “For me it is absolutely clear that there is no majority in the House of Commons to approve a deal.” But it also sounded as if he intended to say: “For me it is absolutely clear that if there is no majority in the House of Commons to approve a deal, we will face an alternative” etc etc.

  • Tusk confirms he has discussed extending article 50 with May.
  • He says EU would favour an article 50 extension as a “rational solution” if a Brexit deal is not passed soon.

Tusk’s comments are little more than a statement of the obvious. But until now he and the European commission have been reluctant to discuss the possibility of article 50 being extended in public, and so the fact that he has decided to endorse the idea in public is significant.

Extending article 50 to avoid no-deal Brexit would be 'rational', Tusk says

Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, is speaking at the press conference now. Asked about the possibility of an article 50 extension, he says at the moment there is no majority in the Commons for a deal. If there is no deal, there would have to be an extension, or a no-deal Brexit, he says. He says the closer we get to 29 March, the more likely an extension becomes. That would be a “rational solution”, he says. He says the EU would show “understanding”.

  • Extending article 50 to avoid no-deal Brexit would be “rational”, Donald Tusk says.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, says he has had three meetings with Theresa May, the most recent this morning. “We are making good progress”, he says.

Updated

David Davis says he is not certain May will be able to last another year as PM

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, has given an interview to Tatler. It has published a short extract on its website, and it is clear that the full text is unlikely to diminish his reputation for having one of the most colossal egos in Westminster. Here is an extract.

[Davis] was, for a long time, Theresa May’s ‘favourite minister. I am eclectic,’ he goes on. ‘People call me right-wing but I’m neither right nor left. I’m all over the shop. Confused would be a better description.’ Not that confused. He believes he could – and perhaps should – lead the Conservative party. He lost out to David Cameron in 2005 following a leadership campaign that featured women in tight T-shirts captioned, ‘It’s DD for me.’ Right now, he won’t make any predictions about the leadership. Does he have the credentials? ‘Yes. And if this were an application for a job as a chief executive, I would probably win it. But it isn’t. And that isn’t the way the decision is done.’

In news terms, the most interesting line in the extract is his admission that he is not certain that Theresa May will be able to survive another year as leader. Here is another extract from the interview, conducted by Charlotte Edwardes.

By December, May stood on the brink of a no-confidence vote from her party after the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee received the requisite number of letters from MPs. Davis was widely tipped to take over. Did he put in a letter to the 1922 Committee? ‘No.’ He couldn’t, he says, be that disloyal. Does she have another year? He sighs. ‘I’ve no idea. Probably.’

David Davis
David Davis Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Updated

The main press conference to mark the conclusion of the EU-Arab summit is starting now. There is a live stream here.

Brexit was not officially on the agenda, but Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, and Donald Tusk, the European council president, are speaking, and it is possible that they will give it a mention. If they do, I will cover it here.

Irish PM Leo Varadkar says he thinks no-deal Brexit won't happen

Mark Rutte, prime minister of a small European country that would be badly affected by a no-deal Brexit, said this morning that the UK and the EU were “sleepwalking” towards that outcome. (See 11.12am.) But Leo Varadkar, prime minister of another small EU country, but the one most at risk from Brexit, said this morning that he did not think no deal would happen, RTE’s Tony Connelly reports.

Leo Varadkar (2nd from right) at the EU-Arab summit
Leo Varadkar (2nd from right) at the EU-Arab summit Photograph: Mohamed El-Shahed/AFP/Getty Images

Like most business organisations, the Association of British Insurers has repeatedly spoken out in public about the dangers of a no-deal Brexit. But in a speech this evening its director general, Huw Evans, will go further than before, saying no deal would be “an unforgivable act of economic and social self-harm”. According to an extract released in advance, he will tell the ABI annual dinner:

A no-deal outcome would be an unforgivable act of economic and social self-harm. It would mean leaving the world’s single biggest trading block overnight with nothing but WTO rules to replace it.

This would be wholly inadequate and unprecedented. None of the EU’s 20 largest trading partners trade with the EU on solely WTO terms; they all have deeper agreements in place. And the WTO framework itself is designed to provide a mechanism for states to resolve trade disputes – it is not designed to be a safety net for the world’s fifth largest economy leaving the world’s biggest trading block. Nor do its rules guarantee market access for the services which make up four fifths of the UK economy. This matters because the EU is - by a very long distance - the largest export market for the UK insurance and long-term savings industry.

As an industry we have done everything possible to prepare for no deal, including transferring an estimated 29m insurance contracts and the establishment of nearly 40 EU subsidiaries and branches to minimise disruption to customers. But we still believe very strongly that a conscious decision to opt for no deal would be an act of economic recklessness our great country would live to regret with WTO rules offering little to no protection against the consequences. As a last resort, if the only alternative to no deal is some form of short delay to Brexit, then delay we should.

This is from Euronews’ Darren McCaffrey on the meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, in Sharm El Sheikh this morning.

Theresa May holding a bilateral meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker (seated) in Sharm El Sheikh
Theresa May holding a bilateral meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker (seated) in Sharm El Sheikh Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Senior Scottish Liberal Democrats are open to a future merger with the Independent Group (TIG) of MPs, providing it establishes its liberal credentials and holds together as a cohesive force, senior sources have said.

Another key issue for senior Lib Dems in Scotland is replacing Vince Cable as UK party leader: Cable has already indicated he will step down after May’s local elections and EU withdrawal, but dissatisfaction at what his seen as his lacklustre leadership is growing.

Deeply frustrated that under Cable the party has failed to exploit Labour and Tory divisions over Brexit, and their right- and left-wards drift, some want a leadership contest quickly. Jo Swinson, the MP for East Dunbartonshire, is touted as a leading contender to replace him, as is Ed Davey, the former energy secretary.

Speculation about which Scottish politicians, particularly at Holyrood, might defect to TIG has intensified. It is not thought either Kezia Dugdale, the former Scottish Labour leader, nor Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South, are minded to jump first.

After originally being in coalition government with Labour during the first two Scottish parliaments, from 1999 to 2007, the Lib Dems are now Holyrood’s smallest party, behind the Greens, with five MSPs.

The party suffered badly from the voter backlash at Nick Clegg’s coalition with David Cameron at Westminster, losing all but one of its Commons seats, but recovered in the 2017 snap general election to take four Westminster seats.

A pact between TIG and the Lib Dems at Westminster is seen as a logical first step. Some Scottish Lib Dem MSPs, who met for their spring conference in Hamilton last Friday, think their party is the most obvious suitor for TIG at Holyrood, and should merge en masse later this year.

Others are cautious, citing nervousness about the unknowns – few Lib Dems activists know the MPs who make up TIG - but nevertheless excitement at the arrival of a new centrist party. One suggested some Lib Dems might baulk at working with the Sheffield MP Angela Smith, given Labour’s bruising campaigns against them in the city.

A source said the key questions were about funding; personalities; a coherent policy platform and seeing how Brexit unfolded. Even so, the bias is towards an eventual merger. “There is huge potential but we have an awful lot to find out first,” he said.

The Office for National Statistics has released figures this morning on the number of deaths of homeless people in England and Wales by local authority area. As you would expect, it says that areas with the highest deprivation have many more deaths relative to their population (nine times as many, to be precise) as the least disadvantaged areas.

Here are the five areas with the highest numbers of deaths of homeless people, per head of population, in the five years covered by the data.

Areas with highest numbers of deaths of homeless people
Areas with highest numbers of deaths of homeless people Photograph: ONS

Theresa May meeting Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, at the EU-Arab summit at Sharm El Sheikh this morning.
Theresa May meeting Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, at the EU-Arab summit at Sharm El Sheikh this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Brexit should be delayed, my colleague Simon Jenkins writes in an article for Guardian Opinion. “Today’s parliament well mirrors the nation,” he says. “It is implacably split. It cannot make up its mind on how to leave the EU next month. So it should just stop, calm down and think.”

Here is Politico Europe’s Tom McTague on the Mark Rutte interview. (See 11.12am.)

And here is McTague on what might happen next.

UK and EU 'sleepwalking' towards no-deal Brexit, Dutch PM Mark Rutte warns

Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, has told the BBC that the UK is “sleepwalking” towards a no-deal Brexit, Laura Kuenssberg reports.

Mark Rutte at the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh
Mark Rutte at the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh
 Photograph: Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters

Anna Soubry, who left the Conservatives last week to join the Independent Group, has said she is considering taking contempt proceedings against the government if she does not get cabinet papers setting out the dangers of a no-deal Brexit by Wednesday. She tabled an amendment calling for the publication for the Brexit debate two weeks ago. It was expected to pass, and she only withdrew it when the Brexit minister, Chris Heaton-Harris, gave her a verbal assurance from the despatch box that the material would be published.

Today Soubry told the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire show that she had not yet seen the no-deal report. She went on:

This minister, with the agreement of the government, said ‘We will give you these papers’. These papers are really, really important.

What they show is an impartial, honest appraisal of the grave dangers to our country in trade and economic terms if we leave without a deal. We believe that the public have a right to see those papers.

At the moment, I am putting my faith in good ministers who were promising that what I need will be delivered in time for Wednesday’s debate. That’s the critical thing, because it will inform MPs.

Anna Soubry
Anna Soubry Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Scotland could now be independent if it were not for devolution, Blair says

If not for devolution Scotland might have been independent by now, Tony Blair has said. As the Press Association reports, the former prime minister suggested that without his party offering the devolution referendum in 1997 the country could have left the UK. In an interview with Holyrood magazine, Blair said he believed devolution had been “essentially a success” as Scotland remained within the UK and any regrets he had were over not considering more ways to increase cultural alignment between the two. He went on:

Having said that, I think people forget that there was a huge amount of pressure for devolution as an alternative to independence and if we hadn’t offered that alternative, you might have had an independent Scotland by now.

Ultimately, I think we overestimated, for sure, the degree to which devolution would quash independence, that’s correct ... But I think were it not for Brexit now, probably the mood in Scotland would be less in favour of independence than for some time.

I’m not saying it will happen, because I still think there are very strong arguments against it, and obviously I’m not in favour of it, even after Brexit, if we do Brexit.

But you know, I think when I said this before people criticised it, but it seems to me absolutely bloody obvious - if Scotland is in favour of staying in Europe, and you wrench the UK out of Europe, then yep, people who are arguing for independence are going to have another dimension to their argument.

It doesn’t mean to say I agree with it, but it’s bound to have an impact.

Tony Blair
Tony Blair Photograph: Kirsty O’Connor/PA

These are from the BBC’s Ros Atkins, who has been interviewing the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, at the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh.

This is what the Press Association has filed from the government briefing about Theresa May’s meeting with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, this morning.

The prime minister is meeting European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday as part of her talks with EU leaders in Sharm El Sheikh, a senior UK government official said.

The official said May had a “good, friendly” 45-minute meeting with Merkel on the fringes of the EU-League of Arab States summit they are attending.

The PM and Merkel discussed Brexit and the UK parliament, as well as issues like Syria, the official said.

The issue of extending article 50 came up briefly in the meeting, and May reiterated that the UK wanted to leave the EU with a deal on the scheduled date of March 29, the official said.

Referring to the PM’s meeting with Merkel, the UK government official said: “They did discuss Brexit, they discussed UK parliament, things that have been happening in UK parliament, things that are happening this week.

“They spent a decent amount of time talking about foreign policy as well as Brexit.”

The official said the issue of extending article 50 came up “fleetingly”, adding “it really wasn’t a focus”.

Here is my colleague Matthew Weaver’s story on Tobias Ellwood, the defence minister, hinting that Theresa May could back an extension of article 50.

Theresa May meeting the Dutch PM Mark Rutte at the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh this morning.
Theresa May meeting the Dutch PM Mark Rutte at the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Labour has underestimated scale of antisemitism problem in party, says Jon Lansman

Jon Lansman, the Momentum founder and member of Labour’s national executive committee who is one of Jeremy Corbyn’s most long-standing allies, told the Today programme this morning that he thought Labour had underestimated the extent of antisemitism on the party. Lansman, who is Jewish, said:

I do think we have a major problem and it always seems to me that we underestimate the scale of it. I think it is a widespread problem. I think it is now obvious that we have a much larger number of people with hardcore antisemitic opinions which unfortunately is polluting the atmosphere in a lot of constituency parties and in particular online. We have to deal with these people.

Lansman said the extent of the problem in the party was partly a reflection of its size - 300,000 new members joined after Corbyn became leader - and partly a reflection of its age profile. He explained:

There are conspiracy theorists in many parts of the political spectrum, I don’t think it’s exclusive to the Labour party.

The Tory party is a smaller party and an elderly party and the role of social media in fomenting and spreading some of the poison is therefore more of a problem in the Labour party.

But he said he did not accept the claim from Luciana Berger, who left Labour to join the Independent Group last week largely because of the antisemitic abuse she has received, that Labour was “institutionally antisemitic”.

And Lansman also said he did not agree with the suggestion from Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, that Corbyn should personally review some antisemitism complaints himself. Lansman said:

Jeremy Corbyn has been an anti-racist campaigner all his life, I have known him for decades and I do absolutely believe in his commitment to eradicate that.

I think he is overseeing the party’s battle against antisemitism. I’m not sure about him taking personal responsibility for cases. I think if he did that, some people might argue that that would be inappropriate.

Jon Lansman
Jon Lansman Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

Lib Dem deputy leader Jo Swinson does not rule out electoral pact with Independent Group MPs

The 11 MPs in the new Independent Group are holding their first private group meeting in Westminster later today. There has been speculation that they could choose a leader. Chuka Umunna, the former Labour MP, said yesterday that he wanted to play “the biggest role” in the group, so by the end of the day he could be a leader - although not a party leader, because TIG are not a party yet.

Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem deputy leader, told the today programme that her party (which, coincidentally, also has 11 MPs) wanted to work with the new group. She said:

I think we need to be working together with the Independent Group MPs but we need to find a 2019 way of doing that and I’m open-minded about how that looks. I want to approach this with a very very open mind, potentially to have radical change. It is not very often we get a moment to break up the broken political system and we have that moment now.

She also suggested the the Lib Dems could agree a pact with the new group that would see them not standing candidates against each other. When asked if this was an option, she replied:

I don’t think we should be taking any of these things off the table ...

I will welcome anyone to the Liberal Democrats who shares my liberal values, and obviously I want more people to join the Lib Dems.

But I am not going to be petty about this and suggest that I am not going to work with somebody who shares many of my values just because for whatever reason they don’t feel that they can join my party.

Jo Swinson
Jo Swinson Photograph: Richard Saker/The Observer

Theresa May increasingly likely to accept article 50 extension, minister suggests

Theresa May is under growing pressure to agree to extend article 50. Perhaps the clearest evidence that she is coming close to embracing the idea came from May herself yesterday, when she told reporters on her plane as she flew out to the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh that “it’s still within our grasp to leave the EU by the 29 March.” She used to assert as fact, without qualification, that Britain would be out at the end of March. Now it is just “within our grasp” - a phrase more typically applied to political aspirations that have little chance of being realised, like ending child poverty.

But this morning there are three more developments suggesting that May is getting ever closer to embracing the need to extend article 50.

1) The Daily Telegraph (paywall) reports that Number 10 has drawn up contingency plans to extend article 50 for two months. In a story that is not being denied by government sources, who point out that you would expect the government to have contingency plans for all eventualities, Steven Swinford and Anna Mikhailova report:

Brexit will be delayed for up to two months under plans being considered by Theresa May to extend Article 50, the Telegraph has learned.

Downing Street officials have drawn up a series of options in a bid to avoid resignations by ministers determined to support a backbench bid to take no deal off the table this week ...

While the Downing Street plans do not specify the length of the extension, ministers believe it will be no longer than two months - avoiding the need for the UK to participate in European parliament elections.

On Wednesday the Commons will vote on a backbench bill tabled by Yvette Cooper, a senior Labour MP, that would force Mrs May to request an extension of Article 50 if a deal has not been reached by March 13.

The prime minister could avert a rebellion by Tory MPs and a Commons defeat by committing to requesting a Brexit delay herself, although in doing so risks alienating Eurosceptic Tory MPs. “It’s very finely balanced,” a source said.

2) The Conservative MP Simon Hart, with the support of members of the Brexit Delivery Group (Tories who want to deliver Brexit, while avoiding no deal), has drawn up an amendment for the Brexit vote on Wednesday that would allow MPs to vote for a plan to avoid no deal without having to pass a new law, as the Yvette Cooper amendment proposes. This would be more acceptable to Number 10 than Cooper, the FT reports (paywall):

Under the proposal, which is set to be tabled as an amendment on Wednesday, the government would be legally obliged to offer MPs the option of requesting an extension in the article 50 exit process beyond March 29. EU leaders have said they are likely to agree to some form of extension, but Mrs May has said she will not ask for one.

A counterproposal, led by Conservative MPs Simon Hart and Andrew Percy, would delay Brexit day to May 23, the start of the European parliament elections, if parliament in Westminster has not approved a deal by March 12.

In an email to 50 members of the Brexit Delivery Group of moderate Tory MPs, Mr Hart said the amendment “could offer some colleagues who have indicated they might support Letwin-Cooper a way out, whilst also removing the danger of a crashing out at the end of March without a deal”.

The plan seeks to avoid “the constitutional upheaval” of the Cooper amendment, and therefore win Downing Street’s support. But as a result, it does not set out legislative moves to tie the government’s hands. “It is just an expression of opinion,” said Sir Oliver.

3) Tobias Ellwood, a defence minister and one of those Tories in government who has hinted that he would vote for Cooper to avoid the risk of a no-deal Brexit, told the Today programme this morning that he thought May might announce an article 50 extension herself. May was “listening” to the concerns of MPs about no deal, he said. Asked if she could announce an article 50 extension after her return from talks with other EU leaders in Egypt, he replied:

You need to wait and hear what she has to say when she gets back.

That, I don’t know. I’m encouraging that to happen because it’s not in anybody’s interest to see no deal.

He also said that May should be willing to defy Tory Brexiters in the European Research Group on this point. (The ERG think it would be a mistake to rule out a no-deal Brexit.) Ellwood said:

[May] has done her utmost to appease the ERG. The referendum itself was done with them in mind, the article 50 letter was sent with them in mind, the motions have been delayed and written with the ERG in mind.

It’s now important for them to fall in line. We would not be having this conversation about no deal if it wasn’t for the fact that, I’m afraid, there’s been a bloc voice in our party that has hindered the prime minister getting this across the line.

She may get the necessary concessions and legal agreements concerning the backstop, but, ultimately, the clock is ticking down. If we cannot get this deal across the line, we are facing the prospect of having to extend.

Ellwood’s interview gave some journalists the impression that he knew more about what might happen than he was actually letting on. This is from HuffPost’s Paul Waugh.

And this is from PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9am (UK time): Theresa May’s press spokesman is due to brief journalists on May’s meetings with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, this morning on the margins of the EU-Arab summit in Sharm El Sheikh.

10am: The Bank of England holds a press conference.

1.30pm (UK time): May holds a press conference.

2.30pm: Sajid Javid, the home secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, but I expect to be focusing mostly on the Brexit debate, and any further fall-out from last week’s defections from Labour and the Conservative party. I will post a summary at the end of the day.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply ATL, although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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