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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

MPs see government figures showing regional impact of different Brexit outcomes - Politics live

A British and EU flag.
A British and EU flag. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Afternoon summary

  • MPs have seen figures from the government’s Brexit impact assessment showing how all areas of the UK would suffer economically under three Brexit scenarios. The BBC has released the figures (see 4.55pm), which suggest that the north east of England would suffer most. The report, which MPs have been allowed to read on a supposedly confidential basis, shows what officials think would happen to the economy if the UK left the EU but stayed in the single market, if it got a trade deal with the EU or if there was no trade deal. In all circumstances economic growth over the next 15 years would be less than if the UK had remained in the EU. (The figures show how much less, in percentage terms.) The government claims the figures are misleading because officials have not modelled the bespoke trade deal it hopes to achieve. As ITV’s Robert Peston points out, the figures suggest those areas that will lose most are those that voted leave.

As a starter, the television pictures made it look much more dramatic than it was ... I think a protest of that kind is perfectly legitimate. As a politician, you should expect that people may come and heckle what you have to say and that not everyone is going to want to sit there quietly and listen to my view of the world. As MPs, we can hardly complain considering the noise we sometimes make in the House of Commons when people are speaking ... I knew that they weren’t going to hit me ... The protesters had given no indication that they wanted to be violent.

  • Secondary schools in England have lost 15,000 teachers and teaching assistants in the last two years, resulting in bigger classes and less individual attention for pupils, according to teachers’ leaders.
  • A Commons committee has been warned not to use the term “fake news” as it prepares to hear evidence on the topic in Washington. The digital, culture, media and sport committee chaired by the Conservative MP Damian Collins will hear five hours of testimony in George Washington University, including an hour each from senior representatives of Twitter, Google and Facebook. As Alex Hern reports, in preliminary submissions to the committee, however, some witnesses have been critical of the thrust of the investigation. “Language and terminology matters, and for that reason the term ‘fake news’ should not be used to discuss this phenomenon,” said Dr Claire Wardle, a research fellow at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy. “When describing the complexity of information disorder, it is woefully inadequate. Neither the words ‘fake’ nor ‘news’ effectively capture this polluted information ecosystem.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

My colleague Peter Walker has an update on the Rees-Mogg committee hearing.

A Scottish Labour MP has apologised for using “deeply offensive” language during a Burns Supper speech. Hugh Gaffney, who represents Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, has been reprimanded by Labour and is to attend equality and diversity training. He is reported to have made a joke about Robert Burns not being “bent”, and used a racist term when referring to a Chinese meal. In a statement he said:

Last week I attended a Labour Students Burns Supper in Edinburgh.

At that event I used certain language relating to the Chinese and LGBT communities that was wrong and completely inappropriate.

I want to offer my unreserved apologies for what I said; my remarks were deeply offensive and unacceptable.

I will be taking part in equality and diversity training at the earliest opportunity.

I will do everything possible to make amends with both the Chinese community and the LGBT community.

Welsh MPs hailed a “historic” milestone in the House of Commons, as the country’s language was used for the first time in a committee on which they all sit, the Press Association reports. The Welsh grand committee heard speeches in both English and Welsh as MPs discussed the impact of last year’s Budget on Wales. The committee, whose members include all 40 Welsh MPs and several from elsewhere in the UK, gives members an opportunity to debate issues relevant to Wales, and was meeting for the first time in two years.

Rees-Mogg says he is more worried about the online abuse directed at MPs. He says it seems to be particularly directed at women. He says even though he is controversial, he attracts less abuse online than female MPs.

Rees-Mogg says university protest looked worse on TV than it was

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative Brexiter, is giving evidence to MPs and peers on the joint committee on human rights. It is holding an inquiry into free speech at universities and wants to hear from him about the fracas that he was involved with at the University of the West of England at the end of last week.

Rees-Mogg is giving evidence alongside Joanne Midgley, the pro vice chancellor for student experience. Some students are also due to give evidence by phone, although one of those due to speak has not turned up.

You can watch the live feed here.

Rees-Mogg starts by saying it is important not to get this out of proportion. He says the TV pictures made the disruption look worse than it was.

  • Rees-Mogg says last week’s university protest looked worse on TV than it was.

He says the audience got up to complain about the protesters. The two sides faced each other. A lady said she had been hit, he says. It was at that point that he got concerned.

He says he did not think the protesters were going to hit him. He stood between the two groups to try to keep them apart.

Rees-Mogg says he does not mind people turning up to heckle. But what was worrying about this incident was that the protesters turned up wearing masks, he says.

Jacob Rees-Mogg at the joint committee
Jacob Rees-Mogg at the joint committee Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

MPs see government figures showing regional impact of different Brexit outcomes

MPs have been allowed to read the Brexit impact report that was leaked to BuzzFeed last month. The government had to make them available for MPs to read “on a confidential basis” after the Commons voted for this last week.

Not surprisingly, the figures have not stayed confidential for long. The BBC has got the key figures.

No 10 insists NHS will be protected from foreign bids under future trade deals after Brexit

Downing Street has sought to quash the row generated at PMQs by Theresa May refusal to rule out the US getting access to NHS contracts as part of a trade deal by saying the NHS is “not for sale”. (See 1.39pm.) At the afternoon lobby briefing May’s spokesman said she had addressed the issue a year ago.

“The prime minister said: ‘The NHS is not for sale and it never will be’,” the spokesman said, quoting from a session of PMQs on February 1st 2017. Asked why she did not say the same again today, the spokesman said: “The prime minister had already made clear her views on the NHS.”

Downing Street said the NHS would be protected in all future trade deals. The spokesman said:

Any trade deal ensures that decisions about public services continue to be made by UK government not by trade partners and the UK’s public health sector is protected by specific exceptions and reservations in all EU trade arrangements. As we leave the EU, the UK will continue to ensure that rigorous protections for the NHS are included in all trade agreements.

At PMQs on 1 February 2017 Jeremy Corbyn asked for a “yes or no” assurance that May would not use the NHS as a bargaining chip in a UK-US trade deal and that she would rule out “opening up our national health service to private US healthcare companies”. May replied:

I could give a detailed answer to the right honourable gentleman’s question, but a simple and straightforward reply is what is required: the NHS is not for sale and it never will be.

Updated

Adonis criticises Blair government for being 'in awe of the super rich'

Lord Adonis has launched a fierce attack on “plain stupid” transport secretary Chris Grayling for bailing out Stagecoach and Virgin’s East Coast rail franchise - but also blamed the Blair government in which he served for being in awe of, and wanting to join, the firms’ super-rich owners.

In an article for Guardian Opinion, Adonis said that the collapse of the franchise highlighted how “since Thatcher we have allowed the private sector to get out of control”, and how the government could no longer stand up to powerful corporate interests. The former Labour transport secretary said that Sir Richard Branson of Virgin and Brian Souter of Stagecoach had “leeched off the public purse for decades and are now in control of the government departments supposedly contracting with them”.

But Adonis added:

I readily accept that the Blair government failed to tame the private sector ‘wild west.’ In retrospect, too many of its leading lights were in awe of the super rich, indeed were determined to become super rich themselves. We need to be clear whose side we are on.

While he does not name individuals, Tony Blair has been frequently criticised for his plutocratic lifestyle, while Lord Mandelson has also attracted attention for an £8m Regents Park house purchase and lucrative jobs since government at global investment banks.

Adonis resigned as chair of the national infrastructure commission after Grayling announced in November that the Virgin Trains East Coast contract would be terminated early in 2020, potentially letting the firms off the hook for up to £2bn in promised payments to government. After Grayling said this week that the franchise would fail within months - while simultaneously announcing that Stagecoach-Virgin would be awarded an extended deal to run the lucrative West Coast service, and was shortlisted for other routes - Adonis called for Stagecoach to be barred from running rail franchises.

Andrew Adonis speaking at the Durham University Labour club.
Andrew Adonis speaking at the Durham University Labour club. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for the Guardian

DUP urges May to adopt 'no surrender' attitude to Brexit

When the DUP MP Ian Paisley urged “no surrender” to the EU in the Commons earlier (see 12.01pm), he may have been quoting his party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy Wilson, who posted this on Twitter earlier.

Updated

George Osborne’s Evening Standard has a long editorial today saying the government should keep the UK in the customs union.

Here is an excerpt.

Economic logic suggests we should remain in a customs union. We know that it is what the great majority of the cabinet privately believe.

There are growing signs that it is what a majority in parliament want, and will vote to impose. So who objects?

A handful of ultra-Brexiteers, caught up in the perverse logic of their misguided revolution.

Any damage to business, any restriction to trade, any cost to consumers, is worth it for the purity of saying: we will have nothing whatsoever to do with Europe.

Why do the views of these zealots have any hold on the country’s future? Because the Conservative leadership appears to be too weak to resist.

A party famed for pragmatism has been held hostage by ideologues. A country renowned for its free trade risks becoming a force for protection.

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, has claimed that Britain will be like Vichy France under the transition terms proposed by the EU. (See 11.24am.)

In response, the anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain issued a statement from the Labour peer Lord Adonis saying:

By describing this country as ‘Vichy Britain’ Nigel Farage is engaging in wish fulfilment of the most repulsive kind. It is emblematic of the increasingly hysterical tone that Brexiteers are deploying in order to distract from the error they are imposing on our country.

Lunchtime summary

  • Theresa May has told MPs that she will be “robust” in Brexit talks. She used the phrase at PMQs ahead of a cabinet sub committee meeting she is chairing this afternoon intended to settle key issues relating to what the UK wants from a trade relationship with the EU after Brexit. This morning the European commission published a paper showing it wants the power to penalise the UK during the transition by closing off parts of the single market to British companies if resolving disputes by going to the European court of justice would take too long. (See 11.24am.) At PMQs the Tory Sir Bill Cash urged May to see off any “threats” from the EU. May replied:

We will be robust in our arguments. As I have said right from the very beginning we will hear noises off, we will hear all sorts of things being said about positions that are being taken. What matters is the positions we take in the negotiations as we sit down and negotiate the best deal. We’ve shown we can do that. We did it in December and we are going to do it again.

  • The Irish government has urged Britain to abandon its Brexit red lines and to commit to staying in the customs union after it leaves the EU. (See 11.09am.)
  • Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, has criticised May for refusing at PMQs to rule out letting the US take over NHS contracts as part of a post-Brexit trade deal. (See 1.39pm.) In a statement released by Open Britain, which is campaigning for a soft Brexit, the Labour MP Peter Kyle said:

Theresa May just gave Donald Trump the green light to get his hands on our National Health Service.

Just days after the US President took to Twitter to insult the NHS, the prime minister was given a clear opportunity to rule out opening up our health service to private competition from US companies. Her clear refusal to do so underlines her weakness in trade negotiations and should concern us all.

  • Ken Clarke, the Tory pro-European former chancellor, has claimed the “vast majority” of MPs back staying in the customs union. (See 9.15am.)
  • Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have clashed over crime figures and police funding at PMQs, with Corbyn telling May: “You can’t have public safety on the cheap.” (See 1.08pm.)
  • Two of black cab rapist John Worboys’ victims have been given the go-ahead to challenge the decision to release him from prison. As the Press Association reports, judges sitting at the High Court also granted permission to London mayor Sadiq Khan to bring a judicial review action against the Parole Board. Sir Brian Leveson and Mr Justice Garnham ruled that their cases could proceed to a full hearing next month.
  • Nick Hardwick, chair of the Parole Board, has outlined radical proposals to make reasons for its decisions public and the judgments easier to challenge in the wake of outrage over Worboys. Giving evidence to the Commons justice committee, he said:

One of the things we should look at is victims, who want to get one, getting a summary of the parole board’s decisions. I certainly think they should know more about licence conditions. The presumption should be that we tell victims as much as we can ... It should be possible to provide some statements publicly about the reasons for a decision.

Cable criticises May for not ruling out letting US access NHS contracts as part of trade deal

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, has described Theresa May’s refusal to rule out letting the US bid for NHS contracts as part of a US-UK trade deal (see 12.37pm) as “pathetic”. He contrasts that with the stance the European commission took when it was negotiating the TTIP deal with the US. (The link in his tweet takes you to a commission letter on this from 2015.)

Updated

PMQs – verdict from the Twitter commentariat

This is what political journalists and commentators are saying about PMQs.

Generally people think Jeremy Corbyn did best, although there is quite a lot of despair at the overall state of PMQs, and particularly the absence of discussion of Brexit.

From the Daily Mirror’s Jason Beattie

From the New Statesman’s George Eaton

From the Sun’s Harry Cole

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges

From HuffPost’s Owen Bennett

From the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire

From HuffPost’s Paul Waugh

From the Evening Standard’s Pippa Crerar

From the Guardian’s Peter Walker

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From the Guardian’s Jonathan Freedland

From the Guardian’s John Harris

Updated

'You can't have safety on the cheap' – Corbyn attacks May over police cuts at PMQs

Here is the Press Association story about the May/Corbyn exchanges at PMQs.

Theresa May was challenged to explain if police chiefs are “crying wolf” over funding as Jeremy Corbyn claimed the public is “less safe”.

The Labour leader pressed the prime minister over her record, including as home secretary, telling the Commons that violent crime is rising, police numbers are down and chief constables say they “no longer have the resources to keep communities safe”.

May defended her actions and attacked the opposition, claiming Corbyn in power would “bankrupt Britain” and therefore the police would have “less money under Labour”.

Police funding dominated the pair’s exchanges at PMQs, the final one before the week-long February recess.

Speaking in the Commons, Corbyn said: “Too many people don’t feel safe and too many people aren’t safe.

“We’ve just seen the highest rise in recorded crime for a quarter of a century.

“The chief constable of Lancashire said the government’s police cuts have made it much more difficult to keep people safe. Is he wrong?”

May said she had previously asked Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) to look at the recording of police crime to make sure forces were “doing it properly”, noting that some changes were made.

She added: “We also see £450m extra being made available to police.”

The PM said forces are also taking more notice of vulnerable victims and doing more on modern slavery and domestic violence, adding: “Taking issues seriously that they weren’t taking seriously before.”

Corbyn quoted funding concerns from the “far backbench” Tory MP Philip Davies, before adding: “Gun crime has increased by 20% in the last year.

“The chief constable of Merseyside said recently: ‘Have I got sufficient resources to fight gun crime? No, I haven’t.’

“Does the prime minister think he is crying wolf?”

May replied: “You can’t get away from the fact that what the government is doing is protecting police budgets – in fact, not just protecting police budgets but increasing, with £450m extra.

“What we’re also doing is ensuring our police also have the powers that they need to do the job we want them to do. I seem to remember you don’t have that good a record when it comes to increasing the powers for police to do their job.”

Corbyn pressed further on funding, noting other public service cuts affecting youth centres workers and probation service workers are “clearly contributing to the rise in crime”.

He later said: “She was home secretary for six years – crime is up, violent crime rising, police numbers down and chief constables saying they no longer have the resources to keep communities safe.

“After seven years of cuts, will the prime minister today admit that her government’s relentless cuts to police, probation services and social services have left us less safe? The reality is you can’t have public safety on the cheap.”

May replied: “You really need to reflect on what Labour would be doing if they were in government.”

Updated

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, used his first questions at PMQs to ask about RBS bank closures in Scotland, a topic he has raised before. He said RBS had now cancelled 10 closures.

Now we’ve saved 10 branches, will the prime minister call in Ross McEwan and join us and call for all the branches to remain open?

Theresa May said Blackford should ask why the Scottish government “has been such a failure in ensuring people in remote communities have access to services like broadband and online banking”.

Blackford then asked about Waspi women (women losing out because of the increase in the state pension age for women, which was not well advertised and then accelerated.) He said:

Will the prime minister do her bit for gender equality and end the injustice faced by 1950s women?

May replied:

As people are living longer it is important we equalise the pension age … We have already acted to give greater protection to the women involved, an extra £1bn has been put in to ensure nobody is going to see their pension entitlement change by more than 18 months.

If he wants to talk about equality then he has to recognise the importance of the equality of the state pension age between men and women.

I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.

Updated

Vicky Ford, a Conservative, asks May if she agrees that the government should take no lessons on the topic of intimidation of MPs from Labour given the shadow chancellor has backed violence against women. (A reference to this comment, which John McDonnell claims has been taken out of context.)

May says McDonnell should apologise for saying Esther McVey should by lynched.

Updated

The SNP Alison Thewliss asks about a constituent who spent £10 going to a jobcentre that was closed. She says people were not told about this.

May says some jobcentres have been closed in Scotland. But people will receive the same service, she says.

Updated

Jack Dromey, the Labour MP, says GKN is facing a hostile takeover. Will the government intervene to block the bid? It has the power to do so.

May says the business department is looking at this. The government will always act in the national interest, she says.

May says China spoke about opening up its markets to beef and dairy products when she was in the country last week.

Updated

Helen Goodman, the Labour MP, says a constituent was brought to the UK as a slave and forced to work in a cannabis factory. Now he faces deportation to Vietnam. Will the government intervene to let him stay.

May says the home secretary will look at this case.

Robert Halfon, a Conservative, says last week the Commons backed a backbench motion calling for the abolition of hospital car parking charges. Will the government accept this?

May says the government has set clear guidelines for hospitals on this issue.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, says all free trade agreements involve some customs checks. That would be incompatible with an open border in Ireland. Why is May so opposed to the UK staying in the customs union?

May says if the UK were in the customs union, it would not be able to do trade deals around the world. She says Benn should read the paper the government published on customs arrangements last summer.

Updated

May refuses to rule out US getting access to NHS contracts as part of trade deal with UK

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, says America wants access to NHS contracts as part of a future UK-US trade deal. Will May exclude the NHS?

May says they have only just started talking to the US. She will go into those talks trying to get the best deal for the UK.

  • May refuses to rule out US being able to bid for NHS contracts as part of post-Brexit trade deal.

Updated

Chris Philp, a Conservative, asks May for an assurance that the government will only agree the Brexit deal as a whole, and that it will not accept separate side deals.

May says the government is working on the basis that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

Updated

Labour’s Thelma Walker says her local council needs to cut services. What should it cut?

May says Walker should be welcoming the improvements taking place in her constituency, such as the increase in the number of pupils in good schools.

Sir Bill Cash, a Conservative, says today is the anniversary of the Maastricht treaty. Will May repudiate the threats from the EU?

May says the government will be “robust” in its arguments in the talks. It did that in December last year and will do that again.

Updated

Layla Moran, a Lib Dem, says Scotland and Northern Ireland have already repealed the law that makes rough sleeping illegal. It was used almost 2,000 times in England. Will the government repeal this Victorian law?

May says the government is spending money on tackling rough sleeping. No one wants it to happen, she says.

Updated

Derek Thomas, a Conservative, says the growth in NHS funding in the south-west is less than the national average. But the ageing population and the geography create special problems.

May says the NHS in Cornwall has had increases. She acknowledges that Cornwall has special circumstances.

Updated

PMQs – Snap verdict

PMQs – Snap verdict: That was the sort of routine, points-win that Corbyn achieves quite regularly these days – by asking focused questions about public spending quotes, buttressed by awkward quotes from Tories or Tory-types – but what made this a bit special was that this was a win on what has traditionally been a key Conservative battleground. When Corbyn was elected Labour leader, his supporters would have expected him to do well at PMQs on health or housing, but it would have taken a brave call to predict him winning on law and order. Yet at the general election one of the turning points in the campaign came when the terror attacks gave Labour the opportunity to hammer May and her government over police cuts (Tory and Labour strategists both assumed at the time that the attacks would benefit May, but in fact the opposite seems to have happened) and this afternoon Corbyn successfully resurrected those arguments. It was risky, because as a former home secretary May is much more confident on this ground than on others and her push-back on the increase in recorded crime (“because I pushed for that as home secretary”, she claimed) was effective. She could also parry Corbyn’s attack on knife crime. But her overall weakness was exposed by the fact that she had to resort to quoting Andy Burnham, who is no longer even an MP, to defend herself against the charge she has cut police spending. It didn’t work.

Updated

Corbyn says the core police budget has been cut. When it comes to tackling crime, prevention and cure both matter. So why is the government cutting both?

May says the government has put more resources into this. But Corbyn voted against tougher sentences for carrying a knife. And he has called for shorter sentences. And, under a Labour mayor, knife crime in London is going up.

Corbyn says crime is wrong. You deal with it by an effective probation service, and rehabilitation. Crime is up, violent crime is up, and the police say they do not have the resources to keep people safe. Will May admit the cuts have left people less safe? You can’t have public safety on the cheap.

May says you need to reflect on what Labour would be doing. You can only pay for good public services with a strong economy. She quotes a Labour adviser saying they need to reflect on what would happen under a Labour government - capital flight, and a run on the pound.

Updated

Corbyn says people do not feel safe and are not safe. We have seen the highest rise in recorded crime for half a century.

May says when she was home secretary, she asked HMIC to change the way police crime is recorded, so it is done properly. She says the police now do more to help vulnerable people, and to tackle issues like domestic violence and modern slavery.

Corbyn says the government should act on what HMIC says. He quotes Philip Davies, a Tory, criticising the government’s record on crime. He quotes a Merseyside police officer saying he needs more resources to tackle gun crime.

May say she is giving the police more powers. Corbyn does not have a good record giving more power to the police, she says.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn also offers his tribute to the dead soldier. And he pays tribute to all those who campaigned for votes for women. Our rights come from people who stand up for rights. We should be proud of what they did.

With crime rising, does May regret cutting 21,000 police officers?

May says she was pleased yesterday to meet Helen Pankhurst. Her late godmother was a suffragette, she says.

On crime, she says crime is down to record low levels.

Corbyn says recorded crime is up by a fifth. And £2.3bn was cut from police budgets under May as home secretary. The inspectorate of constabulary has warned about the risks. Is it scaremongering?

May says the recording of certain types of crime has improved. She says the budget is protecting police budgets. Andy Burnham, when he was shadow home secretary, said the police could take budgets cuts of up to 10%.

Craig Mackinlay, a Conservative, asks for an assurance that Thanet will be given time to get its local plan right. The Ukip-led council has failed in this area, he says.

May says the government is considering intervention because the council has not done what it was supposed to do.

Labour’s Liz McInnes asks about a constituent facing a debilitating illness who is on the personal indepedence payment. Her constituent had her money cut because she was a graduate and deemed in need of less support.

May says she is surprised by this. It will be looked into, she says.

Theresa May starts by paying tribute to a captain who died in a road traffic accident in Iraq. His death was not the result of enemy action.

She says 100 years ago yesterday women won the right to vote. After Labour MPs shout “some women”, she says all women got the vote 10 years later – under a Conservative government.

Updated

At the end of Northern Ireland questions the DUP’s Ian Paisley has just urged ministers to adopt a “no surrender” approach to the EU in the Brexit talks.

This is from the Independent’s John Rentoul.

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, seems confident he is going to be called, even though he is not on the list and does not get a question by right (as the Lib Dems did when they were the third biggest party).

Updated

PMQs

PMQs is starting soon.

Stefaan De Rynck, an adviser to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has defended the European commission’s decision to include a penalty clause in the proposed transition deal. (See 11.24am.)

The Conservative MP Paul Masterton has explained why he thinks the government should keep the Efta/EEA option open.

According to the Telegraph’s Jack Maidment, Robin Walker, the Brexit minister responding to the Westminster Hall debate on Efta (see 11.45am), inserted a rather interesting “currently” when he told MPs the government was not seeking Efta membership.

In the Commons this morning MPs held a debate on membership of the European free trade association (Efta) in Westminster Hall, the space set aside for low-key, general debates which don’t involve Commons votes.

The debate was initiated by the pro-European Tory Stephen Hammond, who spoke in favour of the UK staying in Efta or the EEA (European Economic Area) after Brexit.

(The EEA comprises EU countries plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Efta is a non-EU organisation comprising Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, plus Switzerland. Staying in the EEA could keep the UK fully in the single market. Joining Efta would be equivalent to partial single market membership.)

According to the pro-European Labour MP Chuka Umunna, another nine Tories spoke in favour of EEA or Efta membership. That would be enough to overturn Theresa May’s Tory/DUP majority.

The European commission has this morning has its five-page position paper on the Brexit transition. This is the document my colleague Daniel Boffey wrote about yesterday, in a story saying the EU wants the power to penalise the UK during the transition by closing off parts of the single market to British companies if resolving disputes by going to the European court of justice would take too long.

This proposal is in footnote 4. It reads:

In addition, the governance and dispute settlement part of the withdrawal agreement should provide for a mechanism allowing the Union to suspend certain benefits deriving for the United Kingdom from participation in the internal market where it considers that referring the matter to the court of justice of the European Union would not bring in appropriate time the necessary remedies.

Irish government urges UK to abandon its Brexit red lines and remain in customs union

Nick Hardwick has finished giving evidence to the justice committee.

Turning back to Brexit, Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, has renewed his call for the UK to stay in the customs union. Speaking at a conference in Co Louth, he said he hoped the UK would abandon its red lines that currently rule this out. He said the best interests of the UK, Ireland and the wider EU would be served by an arrangement as close as possible to the current free-flowing status quo. Coveney went on:

In our view this is best accomplished by the UK indicating that it wishes to be part of an extended single market and customs unions, allowing it to continue to access the world’s largest and most successful free market - a market British genius has helped design.

Thus far however, as we know, the British government has not been prepared to seek that type of relationship.

My hope is that in the coming weeks, previous red lines and tough talking points will be put to one side and a calm and rational debate about what is in the best interests of the people of Britain and Northern Ireland can prevail.

That deliberation is overdue.

And the clock is now ticking closer to the time when a decision on the future direction is needed.

The closest possible customs and regulatory partnership is in the best interests of everybody, in my view, across these islands, and indeed in the best interests of the European Union and its future also.

Simon Coveney
Simon Coveney Photograph: Mark Winter/REX/Shutterstock

This is what the Press Association has filed about the Warboys court hearing. (See 9.49am.)

Black-cab rapist John Worboys is appearing in person at the High Court to hear whether the decision to release him will face a legal challenge.

He appeared in the dock of Court 5 at the Royal Courts of Justice on Wednesday, after Sir Brian Leveson asked for him to be brought from prison.

The judge, sitting with Mr Justice Garnham, said he had a difficult experience with a video-link on Tuesday and, in light of that, asked the serial sex attacker to attend in person.

The court heard that the victims were not expecting him to attend in person and at least one of them was unhappy to learn he would be there.

Sir Brian said: “I am sorry about that but I am sure you will appreciate and you have explained why it is not possible, sensibly, to conduct this hearing without him being present in some way.”

The judge said that, as Worboys does not yet have legal representation, it was important he was able to be there at the hearing.

Worboys was jailed indefinitely in 2009, with a minimum term of eight years, for drugging and sexually assaulting women passengers.

Back in the committee, Hardwick says he hopes the review of Parole Board rules will result in the board being able to give out some information about how it takes the decisions it does.

He says he is in favour of a review mechanism, as long as that does not lead to every decision effectively being taken twice.

The BBC’s Daniel Sandford has been tweeting from the Worboys court hearing. (See 9.49am.)

My colleague Alan Travis has been tweeting about the review of how John Worboys’ victims were kept informed about the decision about his release. (See 10.34pm.)

Hardwick floats the idea that victims should be given a summary of Parole Board decisions.

Some victims would want this information, he says. Some would not. So it is not straightforward.

But the presumption should be in favour of letting them know what is going on.

Justice secretary says rules were followed when victims notified about Worboys' release but system can be improved

David Gauke, the justice secretary, has today published the report he commissioned into how the victim contact scheme operated in the John Worboys case.

The full report, from Dame Glenys Stacey, the chief inspector of probabtion, is here (pdf). Here is an extract from her summary.

The review considered whether the requirements of the scheme were met in all respects, specifically whether relevant and timely information was provided to the victims following sentence, and whether they were given the opportunity to contribute their views in anticipation of the Parole Board’s consideration of John Worboys’ application for release.

The [National Probation Service] appears, by and large, to have complied with the Probation Instructions that were relevant at the time. After sentence, the twelve victims who fell under the statutory scheme were all contacted at the right time, and given the opportunity to opt-in to the scheme. Only four chose to do so, and over time contact was lost with one of these women. Two other women could have been accepted onto the scheme on a discretionary basis, should they have made initial contact themselves with those administering the scheme. They did not ...

By the time of the parole hearing, five women were in contact with the Victim Contact Scheme. The NPS took prompt action to notify each of the decision to release John Worboys. Notification was by letter, email or telephone call, depending on preferences expressed by victims much earlier. Inevitably, they each received the news at different times, and regrettably the news broke in the press before some had received and read the notification. Those women not in contact with the scheme - the majority - learnt of the decision through the media. All who spoke to us described their shock and distress. They had not felt prepared for this outcome.

And this is what Gauke said about the report.

It is reassuring that the correct procedures were followed and that in some respects victim liaison officers have gone above and beyond the victim contact requirements.

However, I fully accept that there are things we can do much better. That’s why we have already changed the letters we send to victims to make them more compassionate, clearer and more informative, but there is more to do. We will take these findings and improve the system.

David Gauke
David Gauke Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz / Barcroft Images

Victoria Prentis, a Conservative, is asking the questions now.

Q: Can you explain how the board takes decisions about the appropriateness of releasing someone?

Hardwick says all the decisions are about future risk.

Q: How do you evaluate if people are safe to release?

Hardwick says the board takes evidence from many people. You would take evidence from a prison psychologist. Then there would be report, with a lot of evidence, including a risk algorithm. Then there would be a hearing. And the board would pull all the evidence together.

It looks at two things. First, has the risk been reduced? And then, can the residual risk be managed?

He says the prisoner has to demonstrate that they are safe to release. It is not for the system to prove they are not safe. But if the prisoner can demonstrate they are safe to release, they have to be released.

Hardwick says the Parole Board does give reasons for its decisions. But those decisions are not published.

Hardwick says he can think of another case where the Parole Board released someone in controversial circumstances.

What the board could not say was that the person being released was “a frail, old man on a zimmer frame”, who would struggle to get out of bed, he says.

Hardwick says the board could release more accessible information. It could produce videos. And it could give journalists access to what it does.

Q: To what extent is your desire for greater transparency constrained by rules?

Hardwick says the board cannot release information about individual cases.

He says victims want reassurance. Sometimes information about licensing conditions would reassure them. But the board cannot release this information, he says.

He also says that victims might not want information about their cases put into the public domain regularly.

He says it is also important that witnesses who give evidence to the board can give their honest opinion.

But, despite all these factors, the board could go further in releasing information.

And, if more information was released, the board would be open to challenge. At the moment people cannot challenge it because they don’t know how it made its decision.

He says his plea is for “big change’, but it needs to be thought through. It should not be a “gut reaction”, he says.

Parole Board chair Nick Hardwick says public do not understand role of board

Bob Neill, the committee chair, is opening the hearing.

He says it is not the committee’s job to look at the details of the case. It is not for MPs to second guess the courts, who are looking at this issue today. (See 9.49am.)

The committee will be looking at general issues.

Q: Do you think the public understands the role of the Parole Board?

No, says Nick Hardwick. He says he has said that before. And the public do not understand the board’s role because they do not explain it properly.

  • Parole Board chair Nick Hardwick says public do not understand role of the board.

He says the board could do “much more” to explain its decisions.

But there would be risks too, he says.

Updated

Parole Board chair Nick Hardwick questioned by MPs following Worboys release decision

The Commons justice committee is about to take evidence from Nick Hardwick, chair of the Parole Board, following its decision to approve the release of the “black cab” rapist John Worboys.

Hardwick is not allowed to discuss details of the case itself, and instead, according to the committee, the hearing will focus on “the implications of the case of John Worboys, the transparency of Parole Board decisions and how best to involve and support the victims involved”.

Here is a statement that Bob Neill, the Conservative MP who chairs the committee, put out about the hearing in advance. Neill said:

The John Worboys case raises many questions, in particular, about how the Parole Board makes its decisions and how victims are involved and kept informed by the probation service.

We cannot look at the case itself so we’ll be examining issues of transparency around the Board’s decisions. Professor Hardwick has rightly identified this as a priority himself, so we will give him the opportunity to explain how this might be achieved.

I welcome the review of how victims are involved in the parole process, announced by the justice secretary last week. I hope that this session will be able to inform its findings.

Here is a statement that Hardwick released in January about the Worboys case. And here is an extract.

For prisoners like Worboys, once they have served the ‘tariff’ or the punishment part of their sentence set by a judge, they will be referred to the Parole Board by the Secretary of State and the Board must then determine if they are safe to release. The test that Parole Board’s 250 members must apply in deciding whether to release a prisoner is that ‘it is no longer necessary for the protection of the public that they should be detained’; in other words, the burden is on the prisoner to demonstrate they are safe to release, not the panel to demonstrate they are too dangerous to do so.

The law governing the Parole Board’s decisions is quite clear. We have to make decisions about future risk. We cannot re-assess the prisoner’s guilt or innocence or whether the original sentence was appropriate even if we would like to do so. The decision about future risk will be informed both by evidence of how the prisoner has changed and the robustness of plans to manage him or her in the community.

I do not make decisions on individual cases, but I have observed many hearing and am struck by the careful and sensitive way panels make their decisions. Do they always get it right? No. Less than one per cent of those we release commits a serious further offence and each is a terrible incident. But I would not be honest if I pretended risk could be eliminated completely. Parole Board members need to be confident a prisoner will not reoffend - but they cannot be certain. If certainty is required that needs to be reflected in the length of the original sentence.

The Parole Board Rules prohibit the Parole Board from disclosing details of individual cases. I do not think this is right. Justice needs to be seen to be done. If the parole system is closed and secretive we cannot complain if people do not understand it.

I welcome the government’s review of this area and hope it will be radical.

Hardwick has already apologised for the fact that some of Worboys victims were not informed about the decision to release him, but he pointed out that it was the role of the probation service’s victim contact team to pass on the information.

Victims and Sadiq Khan in court challenge over decision to release John Worboys

Two victims of black cab rapist John Worboys are to ask leading judges for the go-ahead to challenge the decision to release him from prison, the Press Association reports. The PA story goes on:

At the same hearing at the High Court, London mayor Sadiq Khan will also urge Sir Brian Leveson and Mr Justice Garnham to allow him to bring judicial review action against the Parole Board.

Another senior judge has already temporarily blocked the 60-year-old serial sex attacker’s release pending the hearing in London on Wednesday, which is due to last half a day.

On January 26, Mr Justice Supperstone made his decision after considering an urgent application by two of Worboys’ victims.

The women, supported by Khan, applied for a “stay” on Worboys’ release “pending determination of the claim for judicial review or further order”.

Sir Brian and Mr Justice Garnham will consider applications by the women and the mayor, and if permission is granted a full hearing will take place at a date to be fixed.

If the cases are allowed to proceed, it is likely that the judges will also be asked to decide on whether the current bar on release should be extended.

In making his order in January, High Court judge Mr Justice Supperstone, who considered the application on documents lodged by the parties, concluded: “I consider that this claim raises serious questions to be determined and the balance of convenience plainly favours a short stay pending the hearing.”

He said the judicial review claims brought by the two women, who cannot be identified for legal reasons, and Khan “shall be linked”.

The judge stated that the release of Worboys “pursuant to the decision of the Parole Board for England and Wales directing his release shall be stayed pending the hearing on permission for judicial review and directions... or further order”.

Worboys was jailed indefinitely in 2009, with a minimum term of eight years, for drugging and sexually assaulting women passengers.

He became known as the black cab rapist after attacking victims in his hackney carriage.

The Commons justice committee will be taking evidence from the Parole Board about this at 10am.

Ken Clarke claims 'vast majority' of MPs back staying in customs union

Normally PMQs is the most important item in the prime minister’s diary on a Wednesday. But today Theresa May is likely to be far more focused on a meeting taking place after PMQs, but also involving rivals who want to replace her as prime minister and who are critical of her stance on Brexit. Because this afternoon she will be chairing a meeting of the cabinet’s EU exit and trade (strategy and negotiations) sub committee, a showdown that at one point was seen as so important and fraught that pundits were predicting it could provoke cabinet resignations.

The sub committee is meeting twice this week, this afternoon and tomorrow morning, and until recently it was said that this is where May’s inner circle would finally resolve the split between “harder” and “softer” Brexit advocates and decide what trading relationship the UK wants with the EU after it leaves.

But, not for the first time in this process, it seems that crunch decision time has been postponed. This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

And, in an article making the same point, Politico Europe’s Tom McTague and Charlie Cooper report: “According to the senior official, there will be no final agreement on the future relationship until at least next week — and possibly even later this month. No deadline has been set but officials expect a decision in the coming weeks, the insider said.”

There is a lot of Brexit news around this morning. Here are the four main stories on our website.

  • Versions of Brexit under consideration by the cabinet could cut British manufacturing exports by up to a third, according to new economic modelling that finds leave-voting areas such as Sunderland, Coventry, Derby and County Durham suffering most as a result.
  • Theresa May’s government has been “too slow” to begin practical preparations to get the country ready to leave the European Union, parliament’s spending watchdog has concluded.
  • Business leaders have warned Theresa May that “patience is wearing thin” with the government’s indecision on Brexit, as her inner cabinet comes under intense pressure to give a clearer signal about Britain’s future relationship with the EU.
  • Brussels will have the power to punish the UK at will during the Brexit transition period by closing off parts of the single market to British companies, according to a leaked legal document drawn up by the EU.

And Ken Clarke, the Conservative pro-European, was on the Today programme. He claimed that there was a majority in the Commons for staying in the customs union. He told the programme:

The vast majority of members of parliament actually would prefer us to stay in the European Union, but they have all accepted we are leaving. I’ve accepted we’re leaving. But the vast majority would, actually, support staying in the single market and the customs union because if you introduce tariffs, if you introduce customs barriers, train customs officers, start introducing checks, if you start having regulatory differences either side of the border, you damage your economy.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10am: Nick Hardwick, chairman of the Parole Board, gives evidence to the Commons justice committee about the transparency of Parole Board decisions. The hearing was called after the board’s decision to approve the release of “taxi rapist” John Worboys.

12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.

Early afternoon: May chairs a meeting of the cabinet’s key Brexit sub committee. It is one of two meetings the committee is having this week (the other is tomorrow morning) intended to firm up what the government wants from its final Brexit deal.

4.30pm: David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to the liaison committee about Carillion.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary after PMAs and another in the afternoon.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’ top 10 must reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter

Updated

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