Closing summary
We’re closing down this live blog now. Thanks for sticking with us late into the night – as well as for all the comments. Here’s a summary of the evening’s events:
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Westminster came alive on Tuesday evening with speculation the prime minister will face a confidence vote as a senior Tory publicly backed such a move. Owen Paterson, a former cabinet minister, wrote a letter to the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers, Graham Brady, saying he no longer supported Theresa May. The Conservative party’s rules require 48 MPs to do so in order to force a vote. Various sources in Westminster made differing claims on whether or not that number had been reached on Tuesday evening.
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May returned from the continent to face her chief whip and the chairman of the party in No 10. Julian Smith and Brandon Lewis both left Downing Street late in the evening without saying anything but their very presence there fuelled the speculation about May’s position. There were conflicting reports over whether or not Brady had asked to speak to the prime minister after PMQs on Wednesday but friends of his refused to deny that he would do so.
You can read a summary of the day’s earlier events here. And our full story is here:
Updated
Earlier this evening, the Sinn Féin president, Mary-Lou McDonald, told Theresa May the backstop was “non-negotiable” and demanded an Irish unity referendum in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
She and Pearse Doherty, the Sinn Féin Irish parliament member, spoke to May for about 20 minutes on Tuesday. McDonald said:
We raised concerns that we are facing into a no deal or a crash Brexit which would be a disaster for Ireland. And we reminded Mrs May that, in those circumstances, a unity referendum must be called as a matter of urgency.
As I told the taoiseach today, Irish unity is the ultimate contingency to protect our interests in the event of a crash Brexit.
Updated
As if to illustrate the tenuous nature of the reports for anyone getting carried away, City AM’s Owen Bennett contradicts earlier claims that Brady intends to speak to the prime minister after PMQs tomorrow:
Very well placed source tells me Sir Graham Brady is NOT planning to see the PM after PMQs tomorrow
— Owen Bennett (@owenjbennett) December 11, 2018
The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg previously said she had been told he did intend to do so:
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
What is not in doubt is that the chief whip and the chairman of the Conservative party have been in No 10 this evening as the PM returns from the continent. And, as Newsnight’s Nick Watt points out:
Not a normal day if Tory chairman leaves No 10 at 11pm
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) December 11, 2018
Updated
Damien Green, a close ally of Theresa May and former first secretary of state, has told the BBC’s Newsnight programme that, if 48 letters have gone in, it will be seen by the public as “an act of monumental self-indulgence” on the part of Tory MPs.
People outside the Westminster bubble will be looking at this and thinking we’ve got a prime minister doing really difficult negotiations, at the sharp end of one of the most important decisions for 50 years. This is a really important matter for the country, not just the Conservative party, but for the country. To undermine the prime minister at this stage, seems to be, to be wholly wrong
Updated
Theresa May’s grip on power appears to be slipping as speculation grows at Westminster that she could face a vote of no confidence from Tory MPs, exasperated at her last-minute decision to pull the meaningful vote.
While the prime minister took a whistlestop tour of European capitals on Tuesday in a bid to win fresh concessions from EU leaders, MPs were lobbying colleagues to submit letters of no confidence in her leadership to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers.
Friends of Brady refused to deny reports he would meet May after her regular appearance at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday lunchtime. He would have to inform her first before calling any no confidence vote.
There was fevered speculation at Westminster on Tuesday night that the threshold of 48 letters – which would trigger a vote – had finally been reached. May has recently arrived back at Downing Street, where her chief whip was waiting for her.
Several prominent Tories, including Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid and Amber Rudd, are known to be contemplating running if May loses a confidence vote.
Many of the most prominent May sceptics were wary of making predictions, bruised by the last time the letters failed to materialise. One Brexiter MP said he knew colleagues who had spent the day lobbying others to send in their letters. Another said: “Do I think we’re there yet tonight? I’m not sure but I think we will be tomorrow.” Others played down the prospect of the threshold being reached.
Updated
Elsewhere in the letter, Paterson writes that the prime minister failed to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, tried to bounce her ministers into supporting her and approached negotiations like a “feeble and unworthy” supplicant.
These mistakes have eroded trust in the government, to the point where I and many others can no longer take the prime minister at her word ... She has repeatedly said ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, but it is clear her objective was to secure a deal at any cost.
Former cabinet minister declares 'no confidence' in May
The former Northern Ireland and environment secretary, Owen Paterson, has added his name to the list of Tory MPs who have lost confidence in Theresa May’s leadership. In his letter to the chairman of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, Paterson says May’s “proposed ‘deal’ is so bad that it cannot be considered anything other than a betrayal of clear manifesto promises”.
Paterson, who has criticised May’s approach in the past, had his letter published in the Daily Telegraph. In it, he writes:
No amount of tinkering will yield a majority in parliament for this deal. The government needs to consider more boldly the possible alternatives which might command that support. President Tusk offered just such an alternative in March: a wide-ranging, zero-tariff free trade agreement.
That deal foundered on the question of the Northern Ireland border, but existing techniques and processes can resolve this. From my October meeting with Michel Barnier, I know that a willingness exists on the EU side to explore these possibilities more fully. The meeting also confirmed that Tusk’s offer is still on the table.
Throughout this process, I have sought to support the government. The conclusion is now inescapable that the prime minister is the blockage to the wide-ranging free trade agreement offered by Tusk which would be in the best interests of the country and command the support of Parliament.
I, therefore, have no confidence in Theresa May as prime minister and leader of the Conservative party and ask that you hold a vote of no confidence.
Updated
As previously noted, we’ve been here before. And, the last time we were here, we had a look at the likely runners and riders, should Tory MPs declare no confidence in Theresa May’s leadership. Here they are:
It is perhaps worth noting that, since this was written, Boris Johnson has faced a torrid time in the Commons at the hands of his own Tory colleagues, suggesting his stock may have fallen.
Updated
While it should be stressed that there’s been no confirmation that the requisite 48 letters have been submitted, here’s our guide to what would follow if they were:
Numerous journalists are now saying they have been told that enough Tory MPs have submitted – or are due to submit – letters opposing Theresa May’s leadership to force a confidence vote. They are citing unnamed sources.
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
I said on @itvnews that predicting when @theresa_may goes is mug’s game. But someone I actually trust in all this tells me the 48 letters threshold for no-confidence vote In her by Tory MPs has been passed. Might be wrong. And I might be a prize mug. But thought I should mention
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 11, 2018
1. I know, I know, I know that we have been here before, but senior tories are sounding more and more confident the threshold has been reached - more to the point a Remainer MP has just told me they will submit a letter too if there is not vote on deal by Christmas
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
2. At 3pm I was reliably told the numbers weren't there, but this has been moving v fast indeed - at 5.30pm the PM said she hadn't been told about threshold being reached
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
3. It's exactly the time now when MP s were meant to be starting to vote on the deal
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 11, 2018
Take with a big pinch of salt but ...Two Conservative MPs have told me that at least four letters of no confidence were submitted today. A third Tory MP expects the 48 letter threshold to be breached tomorrow morning. One of the other two thinks it has already happened. #Brexit
— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) December 11, 2018
I know we've marched up this hill before, but I've now been told by two solid Tory sources - crucially neither of them "usual suspects" - that the 48 letters have been reached. Ultimately we'll have to wait for Sir Graham Brady in the morning... https://t.co/f7lNn3P9d9
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) December 11, 2018
We have, of course, been here before.
Call me an old cynic if you like, but the same MP ringing round everyone they can think of in the lobby talking darkly about 48 letters, and everyone tweeting it at the same time, does seem a *little* bit familiar
— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) December 11, 2018
Updated
A French politician has taken the lead in ensuring there is no “catastrophe” on the Dover-Calais route in the event of no-deal.
Xavier Bertrand, a former minister, invited the inter-goverment border delivery group to Lille on Monday. The Road Haulage Association was there and it said the UK government’s plans for customs declarations would mean eight hours of paperwork for a typical lorry.
Bertrand told the Guardian he decided to take the lead and has lobbied to get funds from the EU to get Calais ready.
Calais is now urgently putting plans in place for temporary border inspection posts and the recruitment of some of the 250 customs officials apparently needed.
Updated
Boris Johnson has revealed he is dieting and has lost 12 pounds in two weeks after deciding he needed to give up drink and “delicious late-night binges of chorizo and cheese” – just as he could be about to embark on a bid to become prime minister.
Writing in the Spectator, the former foreign secretary said he had realised he was “carting around 16-and-a-half stone” after visiting a French doctor and concluded he needed to try to slim down as the UK was leaving the European Union.
Modestly comparing his weight to the state of the body politic, Johnson said he hoped to be 15 stone by Christmas, for the first time since he left university, “to toast the moment” when MPs force May to ditch the Northern Ireland backstop.
That he said, would amount to “the change that will launch us on a nimbler, lither and more dynamic future,” he wrote, arguing: “If I can do it, so can we all.”
Johnson remains one of the favourites to succeed May, should the vulnerable prime minister be dethroned in the aftermath of her decision to pull the vote on her unpopular Brexit deal.
His decision to have a haircut at the end of last week prompted speculation that he was readying himself for a run at the leadership, by tidying his normally unruly blond mop in an effort to make himself look more presentable to Tory MPs.
Tom Watson, reacting to Boris diet revelation, said: “I applaud Boris Johnson’s diet, I know what it’s like being a middle aged man trying to get fit, but the truth is he won’t lose weight if he keeps trying to have his cake and eat it.”
Updated
Turning away from the Brexit machinations for a moment: The Labour MP, Kate Osamor, has apologised for her “emotional outbursts” as she deals with a row over her son’s drug conviction and has asked to be afforded the space to care for her family.
Osamor resigned as shadow international development secretary on 1 December – the same day the Times reported she had verbally abused one of its journalists. The paper said its reporter was seeking Osamor’s comment for a story on allegations she had misled the public.
Recent weeks have taken their toll on my health. I am deeply sorry for my emotional outbursts and I am working to better manage my feelings. I ask for space and understanding so I can care for my family and get us through this difficult time.
— Kate Osamor🌹 || Labour & Co-op MP for Edmonton|| (@KateOsamor) December 11, 2018
Take care of you. It's important to take time out and look after your mental health.
— (((Dawn Butler MP))) (@DawnButlerBrent) December 11, 2018
Sending you all my solidarity Kate xx
— Angela Rayner (@AngelaRayner) December 11, 2018
Updated
Afternoon summary
- Theresa May has said that her talks with EU leaders today have shown here that there is a “shared determination” in Europe to deliver assurances on the backstop that might satisfy MPs. (See 5.55pm.) But Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, both said the EU would not reopen the deal that has already been negotiated. And, after his meeting with May, Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, stressed how difficult it would be for the EU to give May what she needed.
Long and frank discussion with PM @theresa_may ahead of #Brexit summit. Clear that EU27 wants to help. The question is how.
— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) December 11, 2018
- Ministers have assured MPs that the Commons will get to vote on Brexit before 21 January. After Theresa May pulled the vote yesterday, MPs also highlighted a loophole in the EU Withdrawal Act which meant that, even though the government was supposed to offer MPs a “meaningful vote” in January on what happens next in the event of there being no deal, or the deal being voted down, technically this rule did not apply. David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, and Robin Walker, the Brexit minister, both told MPs that, regardless of the apparent loophole, MPs would get a vote on the Brexit deal by 21 January - or a vote on what should happen next if for any reason that vote did not happen. But their promises failed to assure opposition MPs, who said the government could not be trusted because it had gone back on its word about holding a vote this week.
- Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary and the most powerful figures in the Labour movement, has urged Jeremy Corbyn to ignore pressure to call an early vote of no confidence in the government. See 4.54pm. The Lib Dems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens have all urged Corbyn to call one this week. (See 10.42am.) As leader of the official opposition, Corbyn is the only person who can table a motion of no confidence that has to be put to a vote.
That’s all from me for today.
My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is taking over now.
Updated
May says EU meetings show 'shared determination' to find assurances for MPs on backstop
Theresa May has recorded a clip for broadcasters in Brussels. She has already met the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the European council president, Donald Tusk, and she said there was a “shared determination” in Europe to deliver assurances on the backstop that might satisfy MPs. She said:
What has been shown to me from those meetings is there is a shared determination to deal with this issue and address this problem ...
The deal we’ve negotiated is a deal that honours the referendum ... It’s the best deal available; indeed it’s the only deal available. And the backstop, which is the issue that parliament has raised, is a necessary guarantee for the people of Northern Ireland. And whatever outcome you want, whatever relationship you want with Europe in the future, there is no deal available that does not have a backstop within it. But we don’t want the backstop to be used and, if it is, we want to be certain that it is only temporary. And it’s those assurances that I will be seeking from fellow leaders over the coming days.
Asked whether she had been told that the 48 letters to trigger a no-confidence motion in her as Conservative leader had been received, May said: “No, I have been here in Europe dealing with the issue I have promised parliament I would be dealing with.”
Updated
Carwyn Jones delivers his resignation speech as Welsh first minister
Carwyn Jones has bowed out as first minister of Wales after nine years leading the country.
During his resignation speech in Cardiff, Jones described his feelings as “bittersweet” - he said he was sad to stand down but proud of what he had achieved.
Jones received a standing ovation from most fellow assembly members. However, Labour AM Jack Sargeant, the son of Carl Sargeant, who was found hanged four days after he was sacked by Jones as a minister amid allegations of inappropriate behaviour to women, remained in his seat.
Before the resignation speech, Sargeant issued a statement in which he said it would be “a real slap in the face” if Jones was given a peerage.
Jack Sargeant, who replaced his father as AM for Alyn and Deeside, said:
Nothing could be more distressing for the family and friends of Carl to know that such an accolade could be bestowed when there are so many unanswered questions regarding the first minister’s conduct.
That apart, the mood in the chamber was respectful and jovial, with political rivals paying tribute to Jones’ command of his wide brief and his steadfastness.
Jones’s Labour party colleague, Mark Drakeford, is set to replace him on Wednesday. Jones said:
Mark is someone who can effortlessly match both principles and pragmatism, and I have no doubt at all that he will make a superb first minister of Wales.
Updated
After the division, the SNP MP Stewart McDonald raised a point of order to complain about the veteran Labour MP Dennis Skinner calling him a “piece of shit”. John Bercow, the Speaker, was reluctant to intervene. He said that “moderation and good humour” were conducive to good parliamentary debate, but that he would not comment on something he had not witness and that Skinner was someone he held “in high esteem”.
A new parliamentary habit seems to be forming, whereby any time an SNP MP sat behind Dennis Skinner verbalises any frustration about what Jeremy Corbyn says, he angrily turns round to tell us off. He has just turned round and called me a ‘piece of shit’. He has become a thug.
— Stewart McDonald MP (@StewartMcDonald) December 11, 2018
Updated
The SO24 motion has been defeated by 299 votes to zero. (See 5.12m.) That amounts to Labour and other opposition parties registering a protest against the government - although, ironically, it involved voting against the motion tabled in Jeremy Corbyn’s name, which in other circumstances would be a Corbyn defeat.
May holds meeting with new German CDU leader, Kramp-Karrenbauer
The German press has made much out of the incident at the Chancellery in Berlin, when May was unable to get out of the black limousine which drove her up to a red carpet to meet Angela Merkel at lunchtime.
“Theresa May began another attempt to save her Brexit deal,” the Bild newspaper wrote. “She met the chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday in order to solicit concessions from her EU colleagues.
“But things already began to go wrong when she tried to get out at the chancellery,” the tabloid wrote.
“The door of May’s car was still locked. An embarrassing moment: the prime minister had exit problems and couldn’t get out”.
The two leaders chuckled over the incident as they shook hands for waiting cameras.
At the meeting May, who was accompanied by advisers and the British ambassador, was told by Merkel that no reopening of the negotiations was possible.
Later, May met Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s successor as leader of the Christian Democratic Union from which she stepped down on Friday.
Kramp-Karrenbauer and May held what was described as a 20-minute get-to-know-you meeting at the British embassy in the centre of the German capital, where according to a CDU spokeswoman they talked about the Brexit negotiations as well as future cooperation between the CDU and the British Conservative party.
MPs are now voting on the S024 motion on the government’s management of the meaningful vote debate. Normally these debates don’t end in a division. But Labour is keen to make a point - the wording of the motion is mildly critical of the government (see 1.51pm) - and it has forced a vote. The government is abstaining, and Labour has has to put up tellers on both sides to ensure the division actually goes ahead.
My colleague Marina Hyde has a new column on Brexit. It is hard to do justice to the some of the political delinquency that has been on display, but, as usual, Marina is up to the task. Here is an extract.
And yet, there are hourly reminders that it could be a lot worse. European Research Group henchman Steve Baker MP has declared that the four Eurosceptics who have quit the cabinet – Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey – should decide which one of them will run as a Brexit PM. What a banquet of choice for the British people that would be. According to YouGov polling this week, Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are currently minus 35, David Davis’s are minus 19, Dominic Raab’s are minus 21, and Esther McVey’s were not polled, presumably on the basis that the recently departed high priestess of universal credit would break their measuring device.
Incredibly, though, Boris still spent the weekend casting himself as Aslan in some abortion of a Narnia metaphor, when he’s absolutely the biggest Edmund ever to stalk the earth. “Betray my family for a bit of high-end Turkish delight? Yes please!”
And here is the full article.
'There will be no further opening of exit deal,' Merkel says
After her meeting with Theresa May, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, told the CDU/CSU alliance of which she is a member that she had excluded the possibility of reopening Brexit negotiations. “We said that there will be no further opening of the exit deal,” Merkel said in Berlin on this afternoon.
But Merkel reportedly added that she remained confident that a solution to the impasse could be found, according to the German news agency DPA, pointing out that the majority of British MPs were not in favour of leaving the EU without a deal.
McCluskey says Corbyn should not be bounced into calling early no confidence vote
Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn’s, and one of the senior Labour figures most sceptical about a second referendum, has said that Corbyn should not be bounced into holding an early no confidence vote in the government.
Jeremy Corbyn should not be bounced by those with little or no interest in seeing Labour elected. They would be better placed using a censure motion and waiting for the right time to issue vote of no confidence.
— Len McCluskey (@LenMcCluskey) December 11, 2018
Ian Lavery, the Labour chair, has posted this on Twitter saying much the same.
Labour won't trigger a no confidence vote when we know it will fail. It'll serve only to strengthen Theresa May and unite the Tories.
— Ian Lavery MP (@IanLaveryMP) December 11, 2018
We're fully prepared to bring a no confidence vote when we know we can win and topple this rotten Government. pic.twitter.com/sspLDeAdL3
Jenny Chapman, a shadow Brexit minister, does not seem to have got the message. She told LBC there would be a vote before Christmas. But this has been dismissed by party sources, and so it was either an honest mistake by Chapman, wishful thinking, or an attempt to push the policy in this direction.
Labour will hold confidence vote before Christmas. Jenny Chapman just told me on @LBC
— Eddie Mair (@eddiemair) December 11, 2018
Duncan Smith says mood amongst Tory MPs turning against May
Iain Duncan Smith, the Conservative Brexiter and former party leader, has told ITV that he detects “a mood shift” in the party and that he knows of MPs who have decided within the last 24 hours to submit letters calling for a no confidence vote in Theresa May as party leader.
"I detect in the last 24hrs people have decided this isn't going to work out...and people who wouldn't have put letters in are openly saying my letter is going in."
— Daniel Hewitt (@DanielHewittITV) December 11, 2018
Iain Duncan Smith senses a "mood shift" against Theresa May, though he's yet to submit a letter of no confidence. pic.twitter.com/HqBVJBSC5W
And this is from ITV’s Paul Brand.
One MP who's already written a letter just told me he 'knows' of four more that have gone in today. But keep an eye on who's doing the talking and what their motives might be. Will believe the 48 letters when Sir Graham Brady says he has them. https://t.co/osoQDDJfHn
— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) December 11, 2018
Updated
Here is the Reuters story about Angela Merkel’s talks with Theresa May. And here is an extract.
German leader Angela Merkel ruled out further negotiations on Brexit on Tuesday but said efforts were being made to give Britain reassurances after Prime Minister Theresa May abruptly pulled a parliamentary vote at home because she faced defeat ...
According to two sources, Merkel told her conservative parliamentary group on Tuesday that there would be no further negotiations on Brexit though she also said efforts were being made to give Britain reassurances.
According to the sources, Merkel said May had admitted to her that she would not have got a majority in the Commons and it was not in anyone’s interests for Britain to leave the EU without a deal.
Updated
There is a flurry of excitement at Westminster about the possibility that 48 letters calling for a no confidence vote in Theresa May - the number needed for a vote to go ahead - may have been submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the backbench 1922 Committee.
Rumours 48 names been reached. But May out of the country. And talk of push for early adjournment of the House. Could be bizarre race to get names in before House rises.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) December 11, 2018
But Brady seems to be denying this.
I'm told Graham Brady has NOT got an announcement to make about the 48 letters. #standdownbritain
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) December 11, 2018
Reminder: this is the Tory leadership confidence vote, which is not to be confused with the possible vote of no confidence in the government. (See 10.42am.)
May to visit Dublin tomorrow for talks with Varadkar
Theresa May will travel to Dublin following cabinet on Wednesday afternoon for talks on Brexit with Ireland’s taioseach, Leo Varadkar, Downing Street has announced. According to the Press Association, May will fly on to Brussels later that evening before the European council meeting on Thursday, but no further meetings in the Belgian capital have yet been announced.
She is also planning to speak by phone with the Austrian chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, on this afternoon while she is in Brussels for meetings with Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, the Press Association reports.
Updated
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has just used a speech to a City audience in London to voice his support for Theresa May’s Brexit plan, even though the prime minister was forced to drop the parliamentary vote on her EU withdrawal agreement.
Speaking at the headquarters of the financial media giant Bloomberg, he said:
It’s the best deal available for the British economy that delivers on the result of the referendum and it’s a deal that can bring this country back together again and allow us all to move on.
He also said May’s deal would also protect the City of London’s position as a global financial hub, while arguing that the government would not debase its regulatory standards to attract finance firms after Brexit.
He said: “I reject the idea that laxer regulation makes a jurisdiction more attractive.”
On the World at One the justice minister Rory Stewart revealed that he has a fantasy solution to the Brexit problem facing the country. He told the programme:
In a fantasy dream scenario I would be using the Speaker to lock all the members of parliament up in the chamber for as long as it takes for a papal vote until we come to some sort of agreement on this.
Updated
Merkel tells May Brexit deal cannot be renegotiated
Angela Merkel told Theresa May that there would be no renegotiation of the Brexit deal when they met today, the BBC’s Jenny Hill reports.
Angela Merkel told Theresa May there’d be no renegotiation of the Brexit deal during talks between two leaders this lunchtime. Mrs Merkel - who’s been briefing senior CDU MPs on the talks - said she’s still optimistic a solution can be found
— jenny hill (@jennyhillBBC) December 11, 2018
Varadkar says UK can remove threat of no-deal by halting or delaying Brexit
Speaking in the Irish parliament, Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, also said that the UK could remove the threat of a no-deal Brexit by halting or delaying the process. He said:
It remains in the hands of the UK to decide that we don’t end up in a no-deal scenario.
The option is there to revoke article 50, the option is there to extend article 50, and while there may not be a majority for anything or at least any deal at the moment in the House of Commons, I do believe that there is a majority that the UK should not be plunged into a no-deal scenario.
It is in their hands at any point in time to take the threat of no deal off the table, either by revoking article 50 or, if that is a step too far, by extending it.
Turning back to the no confidence motion issue, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is accusing Labour of delaying tabling one because the party doesn’t want to then have to commit to backing a second referendum if Theresa May wins.
Indeed. And getting them to a point where they can take this decision is one of the reasons for not hanging about on the no confidence motion. Time is running out and the PM’s tactic is clearly to run down the clock. The opposition must not allow that to happen. https://t.co/St7bocpB5o
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) December 11, 2018
And the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges says there is a case for thinking Jeremy Corbyn would rather wait for May to win her Brexit vote before tabling a no confidence motion. This is plausible, because the DUP have signalled that they would vote against the government in a confidence motion if the Brexit deal gets passed. (They view the backstop as a greater threat to the union than a Corbyn government.) That is why some Tories like Mark Harper, the former chief whip, have said that if May does get her deal through, she will be unable to govern, because the confidence and supply agreement with the DUP will be over.
Interestingly, the guys over at @novaramedia are currently telling me Corbyn won't push a No Confidence motion unless May's deal actually passes. At which point, the theory goes, the DUP will back Labour.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) December 11, 2018
A disorderly hard Brexit could mean the loss of 100,000 jobs in Scotland, the country’s main economics thinktank, the Fraser of Allander Institute, has forecast.
Citing the Bank of England’s worst-case scenario that the economy would shrink by 8.9% after Brexit, the institute, based at the University of Strathclyde, said that would reverse recent steady growth in Scotland’s economy, now growing at a faster rate than the UK as a whole.
It would have twice the impact on the Scottish economy than the 2008 financial crash, which saw tens of thousands of jobs cut in the finance sector and other industries.
Data published today showed Scotland’s unemployment rate is now at a record low of 3.7%, versus a UK rate of 4.1%, although its economic inactivity rate is worse, at 22.1% versus 21% for the UK.
The FAI’s forecast was released in advance of tomorrow’s publication of next year’s draft Scottish budget at Holyrood. The biggest political question facing Derek Mackay, the finance secretary, is whether to increase taxes on the highest earners and if so, by how much.
Higher and top rate tax payers in Scotland already pay 41% on earnings, pensions and rent over £43,431 and 46% on income over £150,000. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has raised the 40% higher rate threshold for the rest of the UK to £50,000 from April.
Mackay has already ruled out increasing the 40% threshold to match Hammond’s promise, He could freeze both thresholds, effectively increasing his tax take because of earnings growth, or increase it by inflation. If he did that, Scottish higher rate taxpayers earning £50,000 would pay £1,350 more a year than their neighbours elsewhere in the UK.
Graeme Roy, the institute’s director, said:
Whilst we don’t share the extremely negative view of some, we can say with some confidence that ‘no deal’ would be a substantial economic shock. Many businesses in Scotland are ill-prepared for such a disruptive change.
Updated
In the Commons debate Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Wesminster, is speaking now. He says pulling the vote yesterday was an act of “pathetic cowardice” by Theresa May.
The SNP’s Tommy Sheppard intervenes. He says May is engaged in a “sordid exercise to placate the ultra rightwing of her own party”. Blackford agrees.
Varadkar tells Irish MPs EU plans for no-deal Brexit won't be finalised until mid-January
Brussels will “finalise” their plans on no-deal planning in the next few weeks, Ireland’s taoiseach has said during leaders’ questions in the Dáil.
Leo Varadkar indicated he could not flick the switch on Ireland’s contingency planning until the EU’s plans were complete and they “won’t be finalised until the middle of January”.
He rejected calls from the Sinn Féin president, Mary Lou McDonald, to press the button on a referendum on the future place of Northern Ireland.
Under the Good Friday agreement a poll in Ireland and Northern Ireland can be called at anytime to determine the future place of the state, whether in the UK or part of united Ireland.
Updated
Lidington says there are also those who want a second referendum to reverse Brexit.
They have to accept that this would certainly be divisive, but that it might not be decisive.
When the issue comes back to the Commons, MPs will have hard decisions to take, he says.
Updated
Lidington says there are “home truths” that need to be faced, by some Tory and Labour MPs.
Some argue the UK could just leave the EU and trade on WTO terms. But that would do serious harm to manufacturing sectors. A sudden severance of preferential trade access in four months’ time would be hugely damaging, he says.
He also says that, if people want a trade deal, the withdrawal agreement is an essential gateway to that deal. And a backstop will have to be part of the agreement, he says.
Updated
Lidington says Corbyn needs to clarify his own Brexit position.
He says Corbyn wants the UK to be in the customs union, but for the UK to be able to do its own trade deals. That is not possible, Lidington says.
He says Corbyn claims a customs union for the UK would solve the backstop problem. But it would not.
And Corbyn wants a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, but without signing up to EU state aid rules. That is impossible too, Lidington says.
Labour’s Hilary Benn, chair of the Brexit committee, asks if there will be a new debate when Theresa May comes back with her revised deal? Or will the Commons just go ahead with the last two days of the debate that has already happened.
Lidington says that is a fair question. He says the default position at the moment is that the debate will pick up where it left off (which would mean MPs who have already spoken cannot speak again). But he says it will depend on what is in the deal, and whether it is deemed necessary to have to start the debate all over again.
- Lidington says government has not decided to whether the Brexit debate will resume from where it left off, or whether a new debate will start from scratch.
Douglas Ross, a Conservative, asks if the delay means the immigration white paper will get published before the debate resumes.
Lidington says he spoke to Sajid Javid, the home secretary, about that today. He says Javid said he would be ready to publish that very soon.
Labour’s Stephen Doughty asks if Lidington or any member of the cabinet has seen the codicil to the deal that May is hoping to agree. (Earlier Doughty said that this has already been drafted - see 2.13pm.)
Lidington says he cannot comment on cabinet discussions.
Lidington says the government will bring this back for a vote by 21 January at the latest.
That is a deadline, not a target, he says.
The government will, at the very latest, bring the vote back before the 21st January ...
We certainly see the 21st January as a deadline and not as a target.
Updated
Lidington says there is a wish in the Commons to bring this matter to a head.
He says the the remaining stages of the main Brexit debate, and the vote, have not been cancelled. They have just been deferred. And the business of the House motion going with it remains in force.
The DUP MP Gavin Robinson says that only a “fundamental alternation of the text” of the Brexit deal in relation to the backstop will be acceptable to his party. And he says the DUP will want to see legal advice from the attorney general confirming that.
Lidingon says May said yesterday that nothing as being ruled out.
Ivan Lewis, the independent MP, says ministers do not even know themselves whether they are telling the truth, because they are not being told the truth by the prime ministers.
Isn’t the problem not now that ministers do not know themselves whether they’re telling the truth to this House of Commons because they are being told the truth by the prime minister?
Updated
Labour’s Angela Eagle says May has “shredded her credibility”. MPs find it impossible to believe what she says, Eagle says.
Lidington says he does not accept that.
Lidington says MPs expressed concerns about the backstop. The PM listened, she says. And that is why she has gone back to Europe to get fresh assurances.
David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, and Theresa May’s de facto deputy, is responding for the government.
He says over the last two months May has spent 22 hours at the dispatch box at the Commons answering questions about Brexit. She has made six oral statements, as well as opening the debate, he says.
Updated
Corbyn says May must put her deal to a vote when she returns from Brussels.
There must be no more delays and no more tricks. Parliament must take control, he says.
If the prime minister comes back with nothing more than warm words then she must immediately put her deal to the House. No more delays, no more tricks, let parliament take control.
If not then, frankly Mr Speaker, she must go, we cannot tolerate delay any longer. With a legally enshrined exit date of the 29 March 2019, just over 100 days away, we cannot allow this shambles to endure and neither can we risk falling into a no deal.
Updated
Corbyn says last night he wrote to Theresa May, with four other opposition leaders (from the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens), setting out key questions on Brexit.
When she returns from this strange stage-managed foray to Europe, I hope the prime minister will reply promptly to the five opposition parties who wrote to her, because whilst she sends our country into a Brexit-induced paralysis, the coming winter threatens the deepest crisis in our NHS.
All the while the economy is slowing, high streets in crisis, shares tumbling and the pound plummeting, this isn’t strong and stable government, it’s weak leadership from a weak prime minister.
Here is an extract from the letter.
Our constitution works on the basis that the government control the business of the House of Commons because they have a majority in the House. The government appear to be avoiding a vote on a change to the Business because they fear they cannot command a majority.
Therefore, can you confirm:
That you will put to the house the proposal to defer the debate on your deal and the meaningful vote?
That you confirm the deal before the House of Commons is dead and that the revised proposal will be substantially different from today?
That this house will be given the opportunity to debate the government’s negotiating objectives?
That the requirement for the government to make a statement under section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act, to this house by 21 January on ‘no deal’ still applies following your decision to defer the vote?
Can the secretary of state confirm this is not the case?
The length of time parliament will have to scrutinise any revised deal and the planned schedule in parliament including the date for any meaningful vote?
Updated
Corbyn says May is only seeking reassurances on her trip to Europe. She is only seeking warm words, and that’s when she can get out of the car. (See 12.21pm.)
This runaway prime minister is not even seeking to negotiate. She confirmed she’s only seeking reassurances. Our prime minister is traipsing round the continent in pursuit and search of warm words when she can get out of the car to hear them. It really is, Mr Speaker if I may say so, the unspeakable in pursuit of the unwritten. A waste of time and a waste of public money.
Updated
Corbyn says at least a dozen ministers were sent out yesterday morning saying that there would be a vote, before they were told there would not be a vote.
Corbyn says he will table no confidence motion 'at the appropriate time'
The SNP’s Pete Wishart asks Corbyn to table a motion of no confidence in the government.
Corbyn says he will do the appropriate thing “at the appropriate time”.
We have no confidence in this government.
We need to do the appropriate thing at the appropriate time to have a motion of no confidence in order to get rid of this government.
Updated
Labour’s Tanmanjeet Dhesi asks Corbyn about the BuzzFeed report saying EU officials were told the vote would be pulled 24 hours before cabinet minsters were told.
Corbyn says that is very disturbing. MPs should be told first, he says.
Labour’s Stephen Doughty says he has also been told EU officials were told first. And he says he has been told that the addendum that May is seeking was actually drafted weeks ago.
Corbyn says May has made 'abject mess' of Brexit and her deal 'is dead'
Jeremy Corbyn is opening the emergency debate now.
He says he has never witnessed such an “abject mess” in all his time as an MP.
He says Theresa May “demeaned her office” yesterday by running away from the vote.
There is nothing wrong with standing by your principles. But May did not even do that, he says.
He says the majority of MPs know “this deal is dead”. They want to work on a realistic solution to Brexit.
Catriona Matheson, the SNP’s head of press at Westminster, says John McDonnell is talking nonsense about why the SNP want a no confidence vote now. (See 1.42pm.)
This is desperate nonsense from John McDonnell. @theSNP are currently polling 21 points ahead of Labour, who are currently THIRD in Scotland in latest polling (YouGov poll https://t.co/cTljv91VHz). https://t.co/E9MsoSaO2p
— Catriona Matheson (@_cmatheson) December 11, 2018
Unusually, MPs are now voting on the 10-minute rule motion from Norman Lamb. He is proposing a bill legalising cannabis.
This means the emergency Brexit debate will not start for another 15 minutes.
This is from my colleague Heather Stewart.
I understand Jeremy Corbyn has postponed his meeting with the SNP's @IanBlackfordMP this afternoon - at which Blackford was expected to push for Labour to table a no confidence vote.
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) December 11, 2018
Jeremy Corbyn opens debate criticising government for pulling Brexit vote
Jeremy Corbyn is about to open the emergency debate on Brexit and “the government’s management of the meaningful vote”.
It is an emergency debate under standing order 24, and in these debates the motion cannot be amended. The motion will go through unopposed at the end.
SO24 motions are meant to be relatively neutral, but this one does include criticism of the government. It says:
That this house has considered the prime minister’s unprecedented decision not to proceed with the final two days of debate and the meaningful vote, despite the house’s order of Tuesday 4 December 2018, and her failure to allow this house to express its view on the government’s deal or her proposed negotiating objectives, without the agreement of this house.
Updated
McDonnell claims SNP pushing for no confidence vote now because that would minimise chance of general election they fear
The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has indicated Labour will resist pressure from other opposition parties, including the SNP, to table a no confidence motion imminently. (see 10.42am.) At a briefing for journalists, he said:
We’ll put one down when we can win it. We’ll make a judgment. The prime minister’s going off to see what she can get in terms of renegotiations or whatever – we’ll see what she brings back.
He went on to question the motives of the SNP, saying:
Who can delve into the mind of Nicola Sturgeon, but my view is that what they want is to lose a vote of no confidence, and then avoid a general election, because they know we’re breathing down their necks in Scotland and take seats off them.
McDonnell said Labour would keep the issue of when to table a motion of no confidence under review, and “it will be a fine judgment each day”.
Updated
Labour’s Debbie Abrahams says all trust in the government has broken down.
Labour’s Karen Buck asks why MPs should believe him about there being a vote before 21 January when the government did not keep its word on the vote this week.
Walker says the government wants to abide by the spirit and the letter of the law.
Labour’s Andrew Slaughter asks why the vote cannot be held before the Christmas recess.
Walker says he would like it to be held before 21 January.
Labour’s Stephen Doughty says the problem for Walker is that MPs don’t believe anything the government says any more. He also asks if any EU leaders were told the vote was being pulled in advance, but Walker does not respond to that.
Doughty’s question seems to have been inspired by this BuzzFeed story, saying “top European Union officials were told by May on Sunday that she intended to postpone the parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, some 24 hours before she informed all her cabinet ministers”.
Updated
Labour’s Vernon Coaker asks for an assurance that there are “absolutely no circumstances” in which MPs will be denied a vote on the deal. He says there is very little trust in the government.
Walker says he is happy to give that assurance. There will be a vote, he says.
Labour’s Lisa Nandy asks for an assurance that the government will explore every option, including extending article 50, rather than allowing a no-deal Brexit.
Walker says Theresa May is trying to get a good deal through parliament.
Updated
Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, says MPs won’t be satisfied with Walker’s assurances. He says MPs learned yesterday that assurances can go up “in a puff of smoke”.
Walker says the government is committed to making a statement about its future intentions (which is at the point that the Grieve amendment would allow MPs to have a say, by tabling amendments) either in the case of there being no deal, or in the case of the deal being voted down.
Updated
Dominic Grieve, the Conservative former attorney general who tabled the amendment last week saying that, if the deal gets voted down, MPs will be able to have a say on what happens next by tabling amendments to the government motion, asks if his amendment is now accepted by the government.
Walker says it is.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow solicitor general, says the reassurance given by Robin Walker means nothing without a legal opinion from the attorney general backing it up.
Walker says there will be a meaningful vote.
Nicky Morgan, the Conservative chair of the Treasury committee, asks for an assurance that there will be “no trickery by the government to stop parliament having a say”.
Walker says he can give that assurance.
The Labour MP Yvette Cooper says Walker’s assurances are not satisfactory.
She says the government should give MPs a written assurance that, if MPs have not had a vote by then, it will allow one.
She says oral assurances are not enough. She says ministers repeatedly said there would be a vote yesterday until they pulled the vote.
Walker says Cooper came to the Commons expecting a row.
He says the government will put a motion to the Commons by 21 January.
He also says he “fully expects” the vote to take place sooner.
He urges MPs not to believe the conspiracy theories about this.
Urgent question on meaningful vote
Robin Walker, the Brexit minister, is now responding to Yvette Cooper’s urgent question about the meaningful vote. (See 11.25am.)
He says he accepts there was some debate about this yesterday.
He says the government is committed to holding the Brexit vote before 21 January.
He says that, if the deal is defeated, the government will bring forward a motion, and MPs will get a vote.
And if for any reason there is no deal agreed by then, then the government will make a statement and allow a vote.
- Walker insists MPs will definitely get a “meaningful vote” on Brexit.
Updated
John Major calls for article 50 to be revoked immediately
Sir John Major has called for article 50 to be revoked immediately.
In his second speech in Ireland in as many days, the former prime minister told the Institute of International and European Affairs, that the people of Northern Ireland would be the first to lose if old enmities were awoken.
John Major, speaking at #iiea now, says nobody wants chaos. Revoke Article 50 with ‘immediate effect’ he urges. pic.twitter.com/QGGmBAX2fP
— Dan O'Brien (@danobrien20) December 11, 2018
Last night he told a separate Irish audience that “a hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest for ever.”
Updated
The Met police have issued this statement about the incident at the Houses of Parliament, where police used a Taser device.
A man was arrested by Carriage Gates, inside the Palace of Westminster, on suspicion of trespassing on a protected site at around 11.55hrs on Tuesday, 11 December. A Taser was deployed. Enquiries into the circumstances continue. https://t.co/bzmTJwgLVU pic.twitter.com/NIujTT61eT
— Metropolitan Police (@metpoliceuk) December 11, 2018
Updated
On the subject of a referendum, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, now sees that as more likely than any of the other possible resolutions to the Brexit crisis.
My take on Brexit probabilities. UK leaves with no deal, 15% chance. Parliament finally passes May's deal, slightly modified with EU 'assurances', 20%. Or it passes the deal with new political declaration sketching Norway, 20%. General election, 15%. Referendum, 30%. @CER_EU
— Charles Grant (@CER_Grant) December 10, 2018
People Vote campaign calls for referendum legislation to be drafted now as contingency
At a People’s Vote press conference this morning the leaders of four opposition parties at Westminster - Ian Blackford, Vince Cable, Liz Saville Roberts and Caroline Lucas - have been challenging Labour to table a motion of no confidence in the government. See 10.42am for the details.
But the four MPs, and the campaign, are also issuing challenges to the EU and to the government.
They are asking the EU to accept the case for extending article 50, to allow time for a second referendum. And they are asking the government to start preparing legislation for a referendum.
Dame Margaret Beckett, the Labour former foreign secretary, was also speaking at the news conference. She said:
In recent days, three of the most important actors in this drama have with varying degrees of intent, opened up the pathway to what now appears to be the only way forward.
Today we are making a challenge to all three of them.
To the government, we are calling on ministers now to begin preparations for a People’s Vote including drafting the legislation for the public to be given the final say that the prime minister admits is a realistic outcome of this crisis.
To the European Union, we are calling on it to begin discussions on Thursday to extend article 50 so that our democratic process has the time and space it needs to explore the option - outlined by Mr Tusk - of the UK deciding to stay.
And to Jeremy, we are asking that in the days ahead you think very hard about adding your signature to those of the other leaders here today, table a motion of no confidence so that, if you cannot get the general election we want, you can campaign for the People’s Vote that Labour’s members and voters so desperately desire.
Updated
May arrives in Berlin for talks with Merkel
Theresa May has arrived in Berlin for her talks with Angela Merkel. She had some difficulty getting out of the car.
During the referendum campaign in 2016 Michael Gove, the environment secretary who was then a leader of the Vote Leave campaign, warned that, if the UK stayed in the EU, we would be like “hostages locked in the back of the car”. He said:
If we vote to stay we’re not settling for a secure status quo. We’re voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car and driven headlong towards deeper EU integration.
It seems he has a point ...
Updated
While we’re on the subject of John Bercow, the Speaker had another go at the government during Treasury questions for not holding a vote on the Brexit deal, the Independent’s Ashley Cowburn reports.
Ouch. Philip Hammond tells John McDonnell to vote for Brexit deal on the table at the moment. Speaker Bercow interrupts: "It's quite difficult to vote for something if there isn't a vote"
— Ashley Cowburn (@ashcowburn) December 11, 2018
Updated
More in the incident at the Commons.
From Business Insider’s Adam Bienkov
Here’s the scene at Parliament’s gates. Lots of shouting but individual quickly dealt with pic.twitter.com/DNb9cISYZA
— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) December 11, 2018
From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope
BREAKING About 10 police officers are milling around. Looks like the situation has now calmed down. Two police cars outside carriage gates.
— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) December 11, 2018
There are reports of an incident at the gates to the Houses of Parliament.
From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope
BREAKING Disturbance at the gates of Parliament. Police running towards carriage gates. I heard a scream moments before. A man has been tasered.
— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) December 11, 2018
From the Mirror’s Ben Glaze
Armed police have someone on the ground at Carriage Gates Parliament
— Ben Glaze (@benglaze) December 11, 2018
The Press Association has filed more from the lobby briefing about Number 10 saying the Brexit vote will be held before 21 January. PA reports:
Theresa May will bring her Brexit deal back to the House of Commons “before January 21”, the prime minister’s official spokesman has said.
The spokesman said that May would observe the “spirit” of the EU Withdrawal Act, which requires the prime minister to make a statement to the Commons “before the end of January 21” if no agreement in principle has been reached with Brussels.
There was confusion at Westminster on Monday over whether the January 21 deadline applied, as a withdrawal deal has been reached.
But Commons authorities suggested it did not, saying that in principle the ratification vote could take place as late as 28 March – the day before Brexit is scheduled to happen.
The delayed cabinet meeting, which was due to take place on Tuesday, will now happen on Wednesday following PMQs in the Commons.
Updated
At the Number 10 lobby briefing the prime minister’s spokesman was asked if Theresa May thinks John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, is impartial – in the light of Andrea Leadsom’s suggestion this morning that he isn’t. (See 9.08am.) The spokesman replied:
That’s not a question I’ve ever discussed directly with the prime minister. What I would say is that established convention is that the Speaker must remain politically impartial at all times. It is for the house to determine if this is not the case.
Asked whether the PM believed Bercow should stand aside during the remaining Brexit debate and allow a deputy to take the chair, the spokesman said: “It’s for the house to determine these matters.”
Updated
No 10 says MPs will get to vote on Brexit deal before 21 January
Downing Street has said that MPs will get to vote on the Brexit deal “before January 21”. The prime minister’s spokesman said so at the lobby briefing.
That quashes speculation that Theresa May could put it off until the end of March. And it means the “Grieve amendment” is still in play. (See 11.25am.)
And before the emergency debate we will get an urgent question on whether or not the government has to make a statement to MPs by 21 January if no Brexit deal has been agreed.
In the Commons yesterday Theresa May implied this deadline still stood. But House of Commons officials have said that, because the government has agreed a deal (even though it has not passed the Commons), that deadline no longer stands.
Hopefully the UQ should clear the matter up.
This may sound like a procedural yawnathon, but in fact it is quite important, because if the Commons officials are right, and May does not have to hold her vote until 28 March, then the “Grieve amendment”, which would enable MPs to vote for a “plan B” (and arguably take control of the whole process), might turn out to be of no or little value.
Breaking: Very Important UQ granted at 1230 to @YvetteCooperMP to ask Geoffrey Cox QC to make a statement on the Government's duty under section 13 of the European Union (withdrawal) act 2018 if no deal is reached by 21 January 2019.
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) December 11, 2018
Last night the Speaker, John Bercow, accepted a request from Jeremy Corbyn for an emergency debate on the government’s management of the meaningful vote debate. It will start after 1pm and Corbyn will open for Labour. David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, will respond for the government.
The Government have confirmed that in place of the Prime Minister, @DLidington will respond to the emergency 🚨 SO24 debate granted to @jeremycorbyn today. pic.twitter.com/7IENkltQRB
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) December 11, 2018
Updated
EU ministers say Brext deal cannot be renegotiated
And here are two other quotes from ministers arriving at the EU general affairs council meeting this morning.
Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister, said the deal already agreed was “the only possible agreement”. She said:
We have done a lot to help the UK in its withdrawal agreement. It is the only possible agreement. And we have done a lot of concessions to reach it. So we sincerely hope that there can be a majority to ratify the agreement. But we have to stand ready for a no deal. We are preparing for it. We had a vote in the French parliament yesterday evening authorising the French government to take all necessary measures. And we have to do so responsibly.
And Ann Linde, the Swedish Europe minister, had a very similar message. She said:
I don’t think there will be a renegotiation. But I think it is in the interests of both the EU27 and the UK to have an orderly exit out of the EU. I think everybody will try to do there best. But there will be no renegotiation.
Updated
Here is the full quote from what Lord Callanan, the Brexit minister, said as he arrived at the EU general affairs council meeting this morning. (See 9.08am.) Asked what exactly Theresa May was requesting from EU leaders, in terms of changes to the Brexit deal, Callanan replied:
She wants additional, legal reassurances that the UK cannot be permanently trapped in the Irish backstop. That’s been the issue all along and that’s the issue at the heart of the concerns expressed by many members of parliament ... It is very important that these have to be additional, legally binding reassurances.
Updated
The Dutch PM Mark Rutte has posted this on Twitter about his meeting with Theresa May.
This morning I received PM @Theresa_May in The Hague for a breakfast meeting in preparation for the European Council later this week. A useful dialogue which saw us discuss the latest #Brexit developments. pic.twitter.com/jbmkpRK9L3
— Mark Rutte (@MinPres) December 11, 2018
SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens unite to urge Corbyn to table no confidence motion
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, has been on BBC News this morning saying Jeremy Corbyn should table a motion of no confidence in the government this week. He and the Westminster leaders of three other opposition parties – the SNP’s Ian Blackford, Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts and the Greens’ Caroline Lucas – have now signed a joint letter to Corbyn making this argument. They will also be attending a press conference together at 11.30am, organised by the People’s Vote campaign.
Here is the letter in full.
Dear Jeremy
Today, the shadow cabinet is meeting this morning at a time of constitutional and national crisis.
The government’s inability to pass its Brexit deal through parliament, as witnessed by Theresa May’s withdrawal of her own motion in parliament yesterday, leaves no option for us as leaders of opposition parties but to present a confidence motion on the floor of the House of Commons.
It is our intention to table a motion in the names of the Westminster parliamentary leaders of the Scottish National party, the Liberal Democrat party, Plaid Cymru (The party of Wales) and the Green party. We hope you will join us.
It is not for us to determine Labour party policy but, in this almost unprecedented moment in our nation’s great history, we want to play our part in determining the future. We know that Labour’s members and supporters, like our own, want a different government and, if they cannot get that, demand a people’s vote.
We note recent comments from members of your shadow cabinet that it is impossible to table more than one motion of confidence in a calendar year. This is incorrect because it is a misunderstanding of parliamentary procedure.
Therefore, we ask that you, together with your shadow cabinet this morning, you discuss adding your name as Her Majesty’s leader of the opposition to our joint motion.
We intend to hold a joint press conference today at the IET in central London. We sincerely hope that you will join us.
Last night Labour released a statement saying that it wanted to table a motion of no confidence “when it was most likely to be successful’ and that this would be when Theresa May returned to the Commons with a revised deal, because at that point she would have “decisively and unquestionably lost the confidence of parliament”.
With the DUP saying they would support the government in a confidence vote, and no Tory currently saying they would vote against their government in such a vote (even Justine Greening, who is firmly in favour of a second referendum, recently ruled it out), the Labour leadership is right to think that in a vote this week they would have almost no chance of winning. They might be more likely to win at a point of crisis in the new year, if the government were heading for a no-deal Brexit and a handful of Tories could be persuaded that voting against their party would be better than plunging the country into chaos.
But campaigners for a second referendum also believe that Corbyn’s decision to delay is to a large extent also motivated by his reservations about holding a “people’s vote”. Given that the Tories have 315 MPs, and Labour just 257, Corbyn will struggle to defeat May in a confidence vote whenever it is held. Under the compromise policy agreed at party conference, Labour will consider the option of pushing for a second referendum – but only after its efforts to trigger a general election have failed. Corbyn has always expressed zero enthusiasm for a second referendum (at the weekend the Sunday Times claimed Karie Murphy, his chief of staff, has told colleagues there will only be one “over my dead body”), and delaying a no-confidence vote also delays the point at which Labour would have to decide whether to commit to voting for a second referendum.
Updated
Government's Brexit economic analysis was inadequate, says Commons Treasury committee
The Commons Treasury committee has published a report (pdf) this morning criticising the government economic analysis of the Brexit deal (pdf) released last month. It says the analysis was inadequate, because it did not take into account the short-term impact of Brexit and it modelled the Chequers plan, not the actual plan for a long-term trade deal set out in the political declaration.
Here is an extract from the committee’s summary
The government provided economic analysis of the UK leaving the EU under five different scenarios. The white paper scenario, which is akin to the Chequers proposal, represents the most optimistic and generous reading of the political declaration, insofar as it is consistent with it at all. It does not represent the central or most likely outcome under the political declaration. Therefore, it cannot be used to inform parliament’s meaningful vote on the withdrawal agreement ...
As requested over the summer, the chancellor agreed to provide the committee with economic analyses of the choices facing parliament, ahead of the meaningful vote on the final deal. Yet the information provided includes no analysis of the backstop, and there is no short-term analysis of any of the scenarios, including on public finances and on regional and sectoral job losses and gains. The government has only provided long-term analysis, which does not show how the economy will transition to a new trading relationship, or the path taken by inflation and unemployment. Although the Bank provided the committee with short-term analysis, the committee is disappointed that the Treasury did not provide all the evidence that the committee requested as there is no government short-term analysis of the deal upon which parliament will vote.
And this is from the committee’s chair, the Conservative pro-European Nicky Morgan. She said:
The aim of this report is not to recommend how MPs should vote, but to ensure that MPs are as informed as possible when it comes to choosing a division lobby.
Yet the government has made this difficult to achieve. The committee is disappointed that the government has modelled its white paper, which represents the most optimistic reading of the political declaration, rather than a more realistic scenario.
Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, told BBC News a few minutes ago that he thought Labour had a duty to table a motion of no confidence in the government. Jeremy Corbyn failed to do that, he said. Cable said that other opposition parties would try to push the issue today.
But, as a Lib Dem source has just confirmed, the smaller opposition parties cannot force a vote on a motion of no confidence. If the official opposition tables a motion of no confidence, by convention it has to debated. That is why what Corbyn chooses to do is crucial.
(The Lib Dems and other opposition parties are allocated days when they can choose topics for debate, and in theory they could use one of these for a no confidence debate. But they only take place very rarely, and it is the government that decides when they take place.)
Updated
Here are some more lines from Jean-Claude Juncker’s speech to the European parliament this morning.
Juncker, the president of the European commission, described Brexit as the “surprise guest” at this week’s EU summit, starting on Thursday. He said:
I’m surprised because we had reached an agreement on the 25th November together with the government of the United Kingdom. Notwithstanding that, it would appear that there are problems right at the end of the road.
He also said the backstop was essential.
We have a common determination to do everything to be not in the situation one day to use that backstop.
But we have to prepare: it’s necessary for the entire coherence of what we have agreed with Britain and it is necessary for Ireland.
Ireland will never be left alone.
He has also posted this on Twitter about his meeting with Theresa May later.
I will meet @theresa_may this evening in Brussels. I remain convinced that the #Brexit deal we have is the best - and only - deal possible. There is no room for renegotiation, but further clarifications are possible.
— Jean-Claude Juncker (@JunckerEU) December 11, 2018
Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, has just told BBC News that he thinks it is “sensible” for Labour to delay tabling a no confidence motion until after Theresa May has presented her revised deal to parliament.
This is the position being taken by the Labour leadership, although more than 50 Labour parliamentarians want Jeremy Corbyn to call a no confidence vote this week, as does the SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon. (See 9.08am.)
Updated
John Major defends need for Irish backstop, saying 'Troubles began with murder of customs officials'
Sir John Major has criticised the “breathtaking ignorance” of hard Brexiters and self-described “unionists” over the Irish border and the backstop.
The former prime minister said the backstop was being used as a dangerous “bogus ploy” to crash the Brexit deal.
“We should never forget that the Troubles began in the 1960s with the murder of customs officials at the north-south border,” he told guests at the inaugural Albert Memorial lecture in Longford, Ireland.
He hit out at those in parliament he described as “believing themselves to be unionists”. He said:
Some opinion has shown a breathtaking ignorance of the likely impact unsettling the Good Friday agreement will have on Ireland, north and south.
To them, the Irish demand for a backstop is a bogus ploy, a bogus ploy to keep the UK in a customs union.
Those who mock and disparage the backstop should reflect on the risks of destroying it and stop relying on uninvented fanciful alternatives that for now exist absolutely nowhere.
At stake is not only community relations but security and with it lives as well.
He said he hoped common sense would prevail.
Whatever may happen at Westminster this week or later, I do not myself believe a majority of members of parliament at Westminster will permit a hard border to become a reality.
The reckless few ... are in a clear minority and for good reason.
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Juncker tells May Brexit deal could be clarified, but 'no room whatsoever for renegotiation'
Theresa May is flying around EU capitals today in the search for concessions that might rescue her Brexit deal. But the early signs are not promising. Here are some of the key developments this morning.
- Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, has said that there is “no room whatsoever for renegotiation”. Addressing the European parliament this morning, he said:
I will see Mrs May this evening and I have to say here in the parliament, as I did say before in this parliament, the deal we have achieved is the best deal possible – it is the only deal possible ...
There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation, but of course there is room if used intelligently, there is room enough to give further clarifications and further interpretations without opening the withdrawal agreement.
This will not happen: everyone has to note that the withdrawal agreement will not be reopened.
- Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has claimed that concessions are possible, because the EU has a habit of shifting at the last possible minute in negotiations. Speaking on the Today programme she said this happened in the talks with Greece during the financial crisis. She said:
The EU is always in a position where it negotiates at the last possible moment.
I think it would be very clear to colleagues, friends and neighbours in Europe, as well as the UK, that the deal as it stood was not going to get through the UK parliament.
If we want to avoid a no-deal Brexit next March we need to go back to the drawing board to ensure that UK parliament has that democratic capability that it is demanding, quite rightly. That is why the prime minister is right to do this.
- Leadsom has suggested that John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, is biased against Brexit. Speaking on Today, Leadsom, a Brexiter, said:
[Bercow has] made his views on Brexit on the record, and the problem with that of course is that the chair’s impartiality is absolutely essential.
Asked whether she believed his position was “tainted”, she replied:
He’s made his views known on Brexit ... it’s a matter for him but nevertheless it’s a challenge and all colleagues need to form their own view of that.
- Lord Callanan, the Brexit minister, has said the UK is seeking “legally binding reassurances” about the backstop. He was speaking to reporters as he arrived at the EU general affairs council meeting.
- Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has challenged Jeremy Corbyn to table a no-confidence motion in the government. Speaking on Today, she said:
As I understand it, [Labour] don’t think the time is right for a motion of confidence. For goodness sake, if the time is not right now, when will the time be right?
The clock is ticking, time is running out and if there is to be a different path found - and there must be a different path found to the one that Theresa May currently has the UK on - there isn’t time to lose.
- Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, told the Today programme that May was going to Europe with a mindset that will “guarantee she comes back with nothing which is going to alleviate the fears” of his party.
Here is our overnight story with the summary of yesterday’s developments.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Theresa May is meeting Mark Rutte, the Dutch PM, in The Hague. Then she goes to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, before going to Brussels for talks with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, and Donald Tusk, the European council president.
9.30am: Unemployment figures are published.
11.30am: Philip Hammond, the chancellor, takes questions in the Commons.
12.45pm: MPs begin a three-hour emergency debate on the government’s management of the meaningful vote debate.
As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will mostly be focusing on Brexit.
Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
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