Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Ruth Mosalski

Brexit is going to do more damage than the pandemic, says the UK Government's own official forecaster

The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run than the coronavirus pandemic, a forecaster has predicted.

Brexit will impact the UK's potential gross domestic product (GDP) by about 4% in the long term while the pandemic's impact will be 2%.

GDP or Gross Domestic Product is one of the most important ways of showing how well, or badly, an economy is doing. It is a measure - or an attempt to measure - all the activity of companies, governments and individuals in an economy.

Read more: You can follow our politics coverage here.

The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility Richard Hughes told the BBC: "In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic".

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

During the budget, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the OBR had said they expected the recovery to be quicker.

"Growth this year is revised up from 4% to 6.5%. The OBR then expect the economy to grow by 6% in 2022, and 2.1%, 1.3% and 1.6% over the next three years. In July last year, at the height of the pandemic, unemployment was expected to peak at 12%.

"Today, the OBR expect unemployment to peak at 5.2% that means over 2 million fewer people out of work than previously feared and wages are rising: Compared to February 2020, they have grown in real terms by almost 3.5%".

What did you think of the budget? Let us know in the comments below

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.