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The Guardian - UK
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Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Hancock warns no deal Brexit could hold up trade through Dover for up to six months – Politics live

A ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ outside the Houses of Parliament today. Anti-Brexit campaigners are going to take it on a tour around cities in the UK.
A ‘Bollocks to Brexit’ outside the Houses of Parliament today. Anti-Brexit campaigners are going to take it on a tour around cities in the UK.
 Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Afternoon summary

  • Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has said that a no-deal Brexit could lead to significant delays at Dover and Folkestone for goods coming into the UK for up to six months. He delivered the warning in a series of letters to health and care providers explaining how the Department of Heath is intensifying its no-deal planning. (See 1.54pm.)

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Peter Whittle, a Ukip member of the London assembly Peter Whittle who stood for mayor in 2016, announced he has resigned from the party.

If you are interested in how the party of Nigel Farage became the party of Tommy Robinson, Emilio Casalicchio has a long read on that for PoliticsHome here.

And the Guardian has just published a new investigation into the network funding and supporting Robinson. It’s by Josh Halliday, Lois Beckett and Caelainn Barr. You can read it here.

This is from my colleague Dan Sabbagh.

These are from Patrick O’Flynn, the Ukip MEP (until he left the party last week) and a former political journalist.

This is almost certainly true. They are probably considering every conceivable option in Number 10 at the moment.

But it is not hard to think of reasons why it will never happen. In no particular order,

1 - Theresa May has dismissed the idea so often that it is hard to see how she could justify changing her mind. And reportedly she feels strongly opposed. In an article for BuzzFeed which also says this option is being considered within Number 10, Alex Wickham writes:

The source said May has vociferously opposed the idea of another public vote whenever it has been raised, because she believes it is her duty to fulfil the result of the 2016 referendum and cannot risk Brexit being reversed. “It is the only time she loses her temper and raises her voice,” they said. Downing Street declined to comment on private conversations.

2 - May would find it hard to survive as Conservative leader if she proposed it. According to polling, a referendum giving voters a choice between staying in the EU and backing May’s deal would result in there being a 50/50 chance of Brexit never happening. For a substantial number of Tory MPs, that would be wholly unacceptable.

3 - There is no guarantee that a promise of this kind before Tuesday night would bring in enough Labour MPs for May to win the vote anyway. Labour has other Brexit priorities and, with May on the cusp of a humiliating defeat, Jeremy Corbyn would almost certainly still order his MPs to vote against the deal. Some of them might be tempted to rebel and vote with May in return for the promise of a referendum, but it is not obvious that there would be enough to guarantee her victory. The Labour defectors might not even outnumber the extra Tories who would probably vote against as a result.

4 - May would then have to get legislation for a second referendum through parliament but, without a clear majority in favour, that legislation would struggle.

5 - And there would not be enough time anyway. According to a Constitution Unit study (pdf) the minimum amount of time it would take to hold a referendum, including the time it would take to pass the legislation and the minimum 10 weeks required under law for a campaign, is 22 weeks. On that basis, it is already too late for a March poll. Parliament can legislate in a rush but, as the Constitution Unit says, this would be problematic.

If the government and the Labour opposition fell in behind a second referendum it would be relatively easy to pass a programme motion allowing for swift passage through the Commons, so long as this built in a publicly acceptable amount of time for scrutiny of the detail (which would take place on the floor of the House, as a constitutional bill). Nonetheless, if the referendum result is to be seen as legitimate, and to command widespread public acceptance, it could be damaging for an impression to be created that the bill had been rushed through too quickly.

Updated

This is from Richard Corbett, leader of the Labour MEPs, who is with Jeremy Corbyn in Lisbon for a PES (Party of European Socialists) meeting.

Earlier I described the Lib Dems as the only party in the House of Commons enthusiastically campaigning for a second referendum on Brexit. (See 11.25am.) That’s wrong. The Greens have one MP, and they are firmly committed to a second referendum too. And, under their new leader, Adam Price, Plaid Cymru are now strongly in favour.

Fiona Bruce has been confirmed as the new presenter of Question Time, becoming the first female host in the programme’s history, my colleague Jim Waterson reports.

Here is the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on Number 10’s predicament.

Hancock says no-deal Brexit could lead to significant delays at Dover for up to six months

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has warned medical drug companies to expect six months of “significantly reduced access” to the main trade routes between Britain and continental Europe if there is a no-deal Brexit. He has set out his concerns in a series of no-deal planning letters sent out today to health and care providers.

The letters are available here.

In one letter Hancock said that government planning assumptions had been “revised” to take into account what would happen if the EU imposed import checks on goods from Britain. He said:

These impacts are likely to be felt mostly on the short straits crossings into Dover and Folkestone, where the frequent and closed-loop nature of these mean that both exports and imports would be affected.

The revised cross-government planning assumptions show that there will be significantly reduced access across the short straits, for up to six months.

This is very much a worst-case scenario. In a ‘no deal’ exit from the EU we would, of course, be pressing member states hard to introduce pragmatic arrangements to ensure the continued full flow of goods which would be to their benefit as well as ours.

Nevertheless, as a responsible government, we have a duty to plan for all scenarios.

As the Press Association reports, Hancock also suggested that current plans to have drug firms stockpile six-weeks’ worth of goods might not go far enough to cover a no-deal exit. He said:

In areas where we cannot tolerate significant risk to the flow of goods, such as with medicines and medical products, we need to have contingency plans in place for this worst-case planning assumption.

This means that whilst the six-week stockpiling activities remain a critical part of our contingency plans, this now needs to be supplemented with additional actions.

Ian Kearns, a Lib Dem and former deputy director of the IPPR thinktank, has been in touch to argue that is is unfair to accuse the Lib Dems of playing party politics with the second referendum issue (see 11.25am) when you can level the same charge against Labour.

Labour’s exact intentions with regard to a second referendum remain something as a mystery, not least because figures at the top of the party don’t agree. The official policy (as re-iterated by Jeremy Corbyn today in a Guardian article) is a compromise that avoids a firm commitment in one direction or another. You could argue that this amounts to playing party politics because the policy has been constructed to accommodate the concerns of both remain and leave supporters. But the key point is that Corbyn just doesn’t agree with the Lib Dems on a second referendum; he is much more sceptical about whether it would be good for the country.

The Evening Standard today splashes on some Ipsos MORI polling about Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The headline figure is that more than 60% of people think leaving the EU on the terms set out in the deal would be a bad outcome for the UK, the poll suggests. Only 25% of people think this would be a good outcome for the country.

The poll shows that May’s deal is even more unpopular than the Chequers plan that pre-dated it.

Polling on Brexit deal
Polling on Brexit deal Photograph: Evening Standard

This finding is slightly curious because, if you take the withdrawal agreement to include the WA text and the political declaration on the future partnership, it is broadly based on Chequers. There are differences between Chequers and the political declaration, but you have to be following the process quite closely to know what they are. Perhaps these figures reflect the fact that people think the package agreed in November really is worse. Or perhaps they reflect the fact that, over time, as May’s general plan has received more scrutiny, it has become more unpopular.

The poll also shows that there is no consensus about what should happen if MPs vote down May’s deal on Tuesday.

Polling on what should happen next
Polling on what should happen next Photograph: Evening Standard

Curiously, even though opposition to May’s plan is rising, the poll also suggests that support for May amongst Conservative supporters has gone up over the last two months. Even if people do not like what May’s is proposing, she seems to be getting credit for trying. By contrast, satisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn amongst Labour supporters has gone done since October.

Satisfaction with May and Corbyn
Satisfaction with May and Corbyn Photograph: Evening Standard

Transport secretary Chris Grayling has been briefing freight and business leaders on no-deal planning for Dover Port as Kent County Council warned of chaos for schools, hospitals, morgues, weddings and tourism next

One source, who spoke to him, said he did not share plans but said he told them “detail on contingency planning on motorways, lorry parks and ferry details, particularly around Kent and Dover port would be released later today”.

The leader of the Conservative led Kent County Council Paul Carter has told the Guardian that no-deal could cost Kent £1.5m a day, and the country £250m a day. There are more details in our story here.

The disintegration of Ukip continues. Gerard Batten, its leader and an MEP, has now announced that he is leaving the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group in the European parliament, a grouping for rightwing Eurosceptics dominated by Ukip (or, at least it used to be). Batten said:

It is not possible for me to remain in the group when the president of the group Mr Farage launches continual attacks on me and Ukip in the UK media.

You can read all the Guardian’s Brexit coverage here. And you can read all our politics stories here. There is some overlap, obviously.

And here are some of the more interesting Brexit stories around elsewhere today.

The prime minister was confronted in Downing Street by Amber Rudd and other senior ministers who demanded to know what she intends to do to salvage the vote, and her Brexit deal with it.

During a crisis meeting in Downing Street called by Mrs May they offered her four options - including a postponement of the vote - but came away exasperated when she refused to commit to any of them.

At one point a frustrated Ms Rudd asked her: “What do you want to do, prime minister?” only to receive a “non-committal” reply.

Several people involved said that an aide to Lynton Crosby, the Australian political strategist behind the Conservatives’ 2015 election victory, has been working with Eurosceptic MPs in plotting the future course of Brexit.

This has included informal conversations on how to handle another plebiscite. David Canzini, former head of campaigns for the Conservative party, is said to be working at CTF Partners — Sir Lynton’s consultancy, which has close ties to Boris Johnson, a leading Eurosceptic — with Brexit-supporting MPs on the so-called “Chuck Chequers” campaign against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement.

Those involved said this work forms the natural starting point for a no-deal campaign in the event of a second referendum because it is the most organised pro-Brexit operation at present.

  • Esther McVey, who resigned as work and pensions secretary over May’s Brexit deal, tells the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey in an interview (paywall) that she was “astounded” that cabinet ministers did not support her when she asked for May’s plan to be put to a vote. Tominey says:

Denying suggestions she had been “emotional” during the tense exchanges at last month’s five-hour Cabinet showdown, which resulted in her resigning along with Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, the Liverpudlian MP told the Telegraph: “No one in Cabinet supported me. I was astounded. What I was asking for was a vote on the most important issue in a generation.”

Calling on Cabinet colleagues to “reflect upon” why they refused to be “accountable”, the former TV presenter turned politician described the deal as “terrible” and said she had told the Prime Minister it was “the worst of both worlds” and a “deal for nobody”.

“I thought we needed to focus our minds because this was a huge change for the country. But when the moment came, my Cabinet colleagues chose not to say anything. People talk about accountability, people talk about transparency, people talk about politicians with integrity but when it came to the crunch the other people around the room crumbled. I said: I hope they weren’t like that in their EU negotiations.”

Confirming she had been “shouted down” by Sedwill and chief whip Julian Smith, McVey said: “I was accused of having a meltdown but actually it was the opposite way round because people were so adamant not to have a vote that various people, the chief whip, Sedwill, yes they did all (shout me down).”

European leaders are preparing to give Theresa May a chance at Thursday’s EU summit to request further concessions from Brussels to get the withdrawal agreement through parliament.

A slot has been set aside for her to address the 27 member states two days after the Commons vote. When Mrs May has finished, the leaders will consider a range of next steps, options and scenarios running into next February.

We know that you understand how vital party funds are. Every quiz, every lunch, every race night brings precious contributions which members are happy to give to help our Party succeed in elections. These funds should not be used on divisive issues where the majority of members strongly object to a flawed agenda.

Firstly, we’ve got a floating pound … it won’t go into freefall.

The first thing that will happen is it will go about five, ten points down further from the 15 it already is. So, we’ll end up 20 or 25 below what it was before the referendum. That’s not a bad thing. The pound’s always been too high from the point of view of industry because of the effect of the City.

So, our competitive position with vis-a-vis Europe would be dramatically better even if there are tariffs. It would be much bigger than any tariff impact on us for everything except some agriculture. It will exacerbate the tariff effect on let’s say the German car industry or the German dairy industry for that matter.

McDonnell says McCluskey wrong about second referendum being seen as betrayal

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has rejected warnings from Len McCluskey, the Unite leader, that Labour members would see support for a second Brexit referendum as a betrayal, my colleague Severin Carrell reports. McCluskey, who wields substantial influence within the party, told a group of Labour MPs earlier this week the party could alienate supporters by backing a fresh referendum, and urged them to stick to Labour’s alternative Brexit plan. But McDonnell said that in a choice between staying in the EU and Theresa May’s deal he would vote to remain. Asked during a visit to Glasgow on Friday if the Unite general secretary was right supporters would see that as a betrayal, McDonnell said: “No.” He said that if there were a second referendum it was “inevitable” the choice for voters on the ballot would be remain versus Theresa May’s deal, adding “and if it was I would vote remain.”

You can read Severin’s full story here.

John McDonnell in Glasgow today.
John McDonnell in Glasgow today. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA

Matthew Goodwin, the academic who is co-author of a very readable and thought-provoking new book about “national populism”, has joined the debate about Norway plus. He doesn’t think it’s a solution either.

And the Lib Dems have now sent out a new release about their second referendum amendment. This is from Tom Brake, the party’s Brexit spokesman.

The Liberal Democrats have led the campaign for a people’s vote. We are proud to have tabled an amendment which, if passed, would ensure the people get the final say on Brexit.

Whilst we have heard warm words from Labour MPs, including the shadow chancellor, Labour seem unlikely to support a final say despite it being popular with their voters and members. However, if Labour MPs and others who are concerned about the country’s future want to join us, Liberal Democrats would welcome their support.

This does rather corroborate the People’s Vote claim that the Lib Dems are using the amendment for party political advantage. (See 11.25am.)

This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn.

People's Vote campaign criticise Lib Dems in row about timing of possible second referendum vote

Last night the Liberal Democrats tabled a new amendment to the government motion approving Theresa May’s Brexit deal that will be put to a vote on Tuesday. The Lib Dem amendment proposes a second referendum, and it says:

At end, add “and instructs the government to take all necessary steps to prepare for a people’s vote in which the public may give their informed consent on leaving the EU or retaining the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union.”

You can read the original motion, and all the amendments that have been tabled (13 so far), on the order paper here (pdf).

You might suppose the the People’s Vote campaign, which is campaigning for a second referendum, would welcome this move by the only party in the Commons enthusiastically campaigning for a second referendum.

But they haven’t. In the second referendum camp there is a huge split over tactics, and the People’s Vote campaign have this morning released a statement saying the Lib Dem move is “deeply unhelpful” because it is premature. A spokesman for the campaign explained:

The amendment by the Liberal Democrats is deeply unhelpful at this stage and does not have cross-party support or the backing of the People’s Vote campaign.

The focus and strategy of our campaign has always been first to get the government’s Brexit deal rejected by parliament on Tuesday and then pave the way for a People’s Vote when it has maximum support in the House of Commons.

This amendment is more about political point scoring than following a strategy and it would be deeply unfair for the Liberal Democrats to use this amendment against other supporters of the People’s Vote campaign who are united behind efforts to get the deal rejected and then secure the British public the final say they deserve.

The Conservative MP Sarah Wollaston, who also backs the campaign for a second referendum, had been expected to table her own cross-party second referendum amendment, with support from other doctors in the Commons. They argue that a “people’s vote” is necessary because Brexit should only go ahead with the “informed consent” of the electorate. But Wollaston has put her amendment on hold, accepting the People’s Vote argument that it is too early to put this to a Commons vote.

(There are good grounds for delaying. As Theresa May is discovering, there is no point scheduling a Commons vote on something until you know you are likely to win, and realistically a second referendum motion will only have a good chance of getting passed in the Commons when Labour whips its MPs to support the idea - which it is not willing to do yet.)

UPDATE: A People’s Vote source has been on to complain about the reference in the post above to a “huge” split in the second referendum camp. He says the People’s Vote campaign are united; it is just the Lib Dems who are off on their own. Whether or not that amounts to a big split, I suppose, depends on whether or not you think the Lib Dems are a significant part of the pro second referendum lobby.

FURTHER UPDATE: Actually, it is not true to say that the Lib Dems are the only party in the House of Commons enthusiastically campaigning for a second referendum. The Greens have one MP, and they are calling for a second referendum too. And, under their new leader, Adam Price, Plaid Cymru are now strongly in favour.

Updated

Senior Norwegian politicians and businesses figures have rejected Norway plus, the increasingly touted British cross-party plan for the UK to leave the EU but join Norway in a free trade trade area inside the EU single market, my colleague Patrick Wintour reports.

Patrick’s story also quotes from a report by People’s Vote, the campaign for a second referendum, arguing that Norway plus won’t work. You can read the full 17-page report here (pdf).

Updated

David Coburn, the Scottish Ukip MEP, is also quitting the party.

At least 10 cabinet ministers would back Norway plus, Stephen Kinnock claims

On the Today programme this morning the Labour MP Stephen Kinnock, who has been actively promoting “Norway plus” as a Brexit solution (the UK staying in the single market, as Norway is, plus in the customs union too), claimed that at least 10 cabinet ministers were in favour of the idea. He said:

The country is crying out for us to put our narrow tribalism to one side.

We understand that there are at least 10 cabinet ministers who are supporting this arrangement.

What we need the prime minister to do, when she loses the vote on Tuesday, is to go on to the steps of Downing Street and make a very clear statement that we must pivot now to Norway plus.

But the Conservative pro-European Jo Johnson, who resigned as a transport minister over Theresa May’s Brexit deal, told the same programme that Norway plus was a “non-starter” because it would leave the UK as a “nation of lobbyists” seeking to influence rules set in Brussels over which it had no say.

Stephen Kinnock
Stephen Kinnock Photograph: Andy Hall for the Observer

Former leader Paul Nuttall resigns from Ukip

Paul Nuttall, who was Ukip’s leader at the time of the 2017 general election and who is an MEP for north west England, has become the latest person to announce he is leaving the party because its current leader, Gerard Batten, is making it explicitly anti Muslim and pro Tommy Robinson. In a statement Nuttall said:

After much soul-searching over the past week, I have concluded that I must, as of today, resign as a member of Ukip. I do this with an immense amount of reluctance and regret, as I have worked tirelessly for the party for the past fourteen years.

I am resigning because the party is being taken in a direction which I believe is harmful to Brexit. The association with Tommy Robinson will simply appal many moderate Brexit voters and inevitably be detrimental to the cause.

The Tommy Robinson issue should have been shelved and debated within the party following Brexit; in line with the sensible decision taken by the national executive committee last month. The party leadership and my MEP colleagues have been aware of my views on this issue for some time.

Putting Tommy Robinson front and centre, whilst Brexit is in the process of being betrayed is, in my view, a catastrophic error. To conflate Brexit and Robinson at this crucial moment is to put the Eurosceptic cause in danger and I cannot and will not be party to that.

Nigel Farage, the most successful of Ukip’s many leaders and a figure who arguably did as much as anyone to create the conditions for the leave vote in 2016, announced he was leaving the party earlier this week.

In his Today interview Matt Hancock, the health secretary, also said that Downing Street had been “very clear” that the Brexit vote would not be delayed.

And he said that, if MPs voted down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, then the default option would be for the UK to leave the EU with no deal. He said

I don’t know how likely ‘no deal’ is. It is what happens automatically unless parliament passes something else.

Hancock confirms government could charter plans to fly medicines into UK in event of no deal

Good morning. Sorry about the late start.

The Commons is not sitting today, and so we will have to wait until Monday for day four of the Brexit debate. But campaigning ahead of the vote continues. Downing Street is sending around 30 ministers on local visits today to promote the merits of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. In a statement released overnight, May said:

We have delivered a deal that honours the vote of the British people.“I’ve been speaking to factory workers in Scotland, farmers in Wales and people right across the country, answering their questions about the deal and our future.

Overwhelmingly, the message I’ve heard is that people want us to get on with it. And that’s why it’s important that ministers are out speaking with communities across the UK today about how the deal works for them.

It is an odd tactic, because we are not in a general election campaign (yet?). But Number 10 clearly think that, if they cannot win round Tory MPs directly, then they might be able to do so indirectly, via their constituents. It all seems a bit of a long shot.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, was on the Today programme this morning talking about Brexit, and about planning for a no deal. As the Press Asociation report, he said that planes could be used to fly in drugs, and medicines could be given priority access through gridlocked ports in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The PA story goes on:

Hancock also said the government was consulting on plans for chemists to ration drugs to ensure patients can retain access to vital medicines in the event of shortages.

He defended the government’s preparations for a no-deal Brexit but stressed that the potential problems were a reason to back Theresa May’s plan in the crunch December 11 vote.

The Times reported that a consultation launched by the Department for Health and Social Care called for rapid changes to medicine rules to “support the continuity of supply of medicines in a ‘no-deal’ scenario”. The government wants to enable ministers to issue a “serious shortage protocol” for pharmacies to follow, the newspaper said.

It “could be issued in case of a serious national shortage and would enable community pharmacists and other dispensers to dispense in accordance with the protocol rather than the prescription without contacting the GP”.

Ministers would order pharmacists to dispense a “reduced quantity” of the medicine, an “alternative dosage form”, a “therapeutic equivalent” or a “generic equivalent”.

Hancock told BBC Radio 4’s Today that “this is something we are consulting on” and “it’s about having the appropriate clinical flexibility”.

He insisted that his department was “on track” with arrangements for a no-deal Brexit. But he added: “The deal allows us to both deliver on the referendum result but do so in a way that allows both the economy to function but also these logistical problems not to arise.”

As part of the plans “we are working on ensuring that we have aviation capacity”, he said.

Asked if that would mean chartering planes to fly in medicines, he said: “We are working on exactly how we are going to do that, but that is part of the work we are doing.”

Hancock added that there had been work to fast-track lorries containing medical supplies through ports such as Dover if there were problems.

“If there is serious disruption at the border we will have prioritisation, and prioritisation will include medicines and medical devices,” he said.

The government was also “buying a large collection of refrigeration units so that those drugs that can be stockpiled, we will have a stockpile of,” he said.

Here is our overnight story with all yesterday’s main Brexit developments.

There are no specific items in the diary for today.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary when I finish, at around 4pm.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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